I don't know what to make of the line movement on this game, but I have to stay strong on this one. Is it possible it is a "false" move, just to make us think twice or get gun-shy? I don't know if books do that or not, often wondered, though. If it is a move strictly based on large money on the Tulsa side, then that "smart" money must know something about this game that goes far beyond fundamentals. I'll take my chances, anyway.
Using a style of handicapping college hoops that I strongly believe in (mainly via boxscores and a select few team stats categories), this play comes up a very strong one for me.
The disparity between the following differentials and statistical averages of these two teams really says it all in my opinion.
Def. FG%: Tulsa= 45%; Nevada= 38%
Reb. Differential: Tulsa= -6; Nevada= +9
FTA Differential: Tulsa= -7; Nevada= +8
Now, I've 'capped a number of games in this fashion this year and I honestly don't remember noticing such a glaring difference between two teams in the above "telling" categories.....certainly not one in which the pointspread was so short.
Nevada's stats above are typical of the type of team that should be able to sustain some pointspread success, regardless of venue. They play pretty good defense, they crash the boards (their height certainly helps) and at the same time do a good job of boxing guys out. That type of RB differential also tells me that UNR is a scrappy bunch that gives good effort, as rebounding is just as much about desire and will as it is about height and technique. The Pack also do a good job of getting to the free throw stripe for easy points. They don't necessarily rely on jump shots to fall for them to have success, they attack the rim. At the same time, they don't typically commit silly fouls based on poor defensive position, which would send their opponent to the line for easy points.
On the other hand, Tulsa is the antithesis of what I am looking for in a team to wager on. Based on their defensive FG %, their defensive intensity is obviously not there, seemingly giving up alot of open looks and/or easy put backs. The Golden Hurricane don't crash the boards very well, either, which puts even more pressure on their offense. Once again, allowing your opponents to consistently out-rebound you is a sign of a team that just isn't working very hard. Interesting enough, since conference play has started, Tulsa has actually gotten worse in all three of the above categories that kind of intrinsically value a team's effort, or lack thereof. I think it is very possible that this team is just ready for this season to be over. I know the fans are sure ready for a fresh start next season. Recently resigned HC John Phillips really turned this program south in a hurry. He was a good X and O's guy, but the guy just couldn't recruit.....a very poor evaluator of talent. That was ultimately his demise. Talent-pool simply dried up at TU. The only success he had as HC was the first few years when he had Buzz Peterson's left-over recruits to play for him.
Bottomline: Tulsa's stats are not pretty, very reflective of their 3-11 record. The Golden Hurricane are mired in a losing streak, while UNR is streaking with Fazekas, Pinkney, Charlo, and Co. TU just can't be confident going into this one and I don't see anything that could possibly get them motivated for this game? IMO, no amount of home-court advantage could possibly make up for their lack of sound, fundamental basketball.
Barring a total inversion of both of these team's characteristics to date, the only way I see Tulsa staying inside this number tonight is if they were to hit an obscene amount of threes and shoot the lights out and/or UNR can't buy a basket. All I'm asking for is that these two teams play at or near their typical levels and this should be a comfortable victory for Nevado-Reno. I'm not gonna let the line move scare me off of this one.
Good Luck to All,
-JC
Using a style of handicapping college hoops that I strongly believe in (mainly via boxscores and a select few team stats categories), this play comes up a very strong one for me.
The disparity between the following differentials and statistical averages of these two teams really says it all in my opinion.
Def. FG%: Tulsa= 45%; Nevada= 38%
Reb. Differential: Tulsa= -6; Nevada= +9
FTA Differential: Tulsa= -7; Nevada= +8
Now, I've 'capped a number of games in this fashion this year and I honestly don't remember noticing such a glaring difference between two teams in the above "telling" categories.....certainly not one in which the pointspread was so short.
Nevada's stats above are typical of the type of team that should be able to sustain some pointspread success, regardless of venue. They play pretty good defense, they crash the boards (their height certainly helps) and at the same time do a good job of boxing guys out. That type of RB differential also tells me that UNR is a scrappy bunch that gives good effort, as rebounding is just as much about desire and will as it is about height and technique. The Pack also do a good job of getting to the free throw stripe for easy points. They don't necessarily rely on jump shots to fall for them to have success, they attack the rim. At the same time, they don't typically commit silly fouls based on poor defensive position, which would send their opponent to the line for easy points.
On the other hand, Tulsa is the antithesis of what I am looking for in a team to wager on. Based on their defensive FG %, their defensive intensity is obviously not there, seemingly giving up alot of open looks and/or easy put backs. The Golden Hurricane don't crash the boards very well, either, which puts even more pressure on their offense. Once again, allowing your opponents to consistently out-rebound you is a sign of a team that just isn't working very hard. Interesting enough, since conference play has started, Tulsa has actually gotten worse in all three of the above categories that kind of intrinsically value a team's effort, or lack thereof. I think it is very possible that this team is just ready for this season to be over. I know the fans are sure ready for a fresh start next season. Recently resigned HC John Phillips really turned this program south in a hurry. He was a good X and O's guy, but the guy just couldn't recruit.....a very poor evaluator of talent. That was ultimately his demise. Talent-pool simply dried up at TU. The only success he had as HC was the first few years when he had Buzz Peterson's left-over recruits to play for him.
Bottomline: Tulsa's stats are not pretty, very reflective of their 3-11 record. The Golden Hurricane are mired in a losing streak, while UNR is streaking with Fazekas, Pinkney, Charlo, and Co. TU just can't be confident going into this one and I don't see anything that could possibly get them motivated for this game? IMO, no amount of home-court advantage could possibly make up for their lack of sound, fundamental basketball.
Barring a total inversion of both of these team's characteristics to date, the only way I see Tulsa staying inside this number tonight is if they were to hit an obscene amount of threes and shoot the lights out and/or UNR can't buy a basket. All I'm asking for is that these two teams play at or near their typical levels and this should be a comfortable victory for Nevado-Reno. I'm not gonna let the line move scare me off of this one.
Good Luck to All,
-JC
