New lines

[nj]

I just saw the Pavlik/Hopkins and Tarver/Dawson lines at 5d.

Anyone know when they opened, and the initial lines?

Right now its Dawson -230/Tarver +175, the Dawson line should rise, Tarver is an easier match-up stylistically for him than was Johnson.

And Hop +250/Pavlik -350, my play will undoubtedly be Hopkins by fight night, Im not certain how this line will move and if I should take this early.

 

[nj]

Also note Forrest -160/Mora +120, and Taylor -350, Lacy +250.

Frankly I think Taylor will crush Lacy in an embarassing manner, KO 1-5. Id cap this -500/+425. I dont want money tied up until mid-November however.

 

[nj]

Lujan +450 over Castillo! im on it. Castillo is broke as a joke and fighting solely for money, Lujan has been getting great sparring with Margarito

 

[nj]

Ouch! Lujan+165/Catillo -215 now. I wanted to put more on Lujan +450 but was hesitant after the disastrous Joval opener.

edit - now +105/-145. Incredible jump. Dawson unsurprisingly rose to -310.

Congrats to anyone who caught these.

 

[The Sponge]

I just saw the Pavlik/Hopkins and Tarver/Dawson lines at 5d.

Anyone know when they opened, and the initial lines?

Right now its Dawson -230/Tarver +175, the Dawson line should rise, Tarver is an easier match-up stylistically for him than was Johnson.

And Hop +250/Pavlik -350, my play will undoubtedly be Hopkins by fight night, Im not certain how this line will move and if I should take this early.

I wouldn't waste my time with Hopkins. He throws 5 punches a round. Terrific fighter but only chance is a knockout. Pavlik a 350 fav when Calazghe was about 250if i believe. Makes me wonder what the line would be with Calz against Pavlik if it ever happen. One thing i like about the Pavlik fight is that he will force Hopkins to fight. I wonder if the Hopkins camp sneaks a deal and makes this a ten round fight. If so maybe he could throw six punches a round.

 

[Zerwas]

Great catch on Luan.

I wonder if there is still value in him!?


BTW, i thought Lacy retired!?

Probably a smart move by him....

 

[nj]

Sponge Im going to disagree with you on Hop. His activity level is low but Pavlik wont be able to maintain the same output as Calzaghe did.

This is an easier fight for Hop than was Calzaghe, especially at 170lbs. Hopkins +325 is wack.


I dont know enough about Lujan or Castillo to cap it, I just knew +450 was high. Lacy did retire but seemed emotional at the time, Winky Wright predicted he'll be back. Lacy's time is up as an elite prizefighter, may as well grab one last payday.

 

[nj]

Hop will befuddle Pavlik whose movements and punch patterns are predictable, I see this is a close decision, Pavlik wins on volume and promotional pull, but this line is off. Hopkins will undoubtedly land the better shots, just like vs Calzaghe, but does he have the stamina to keep it up for 12 rounds?

 

[gardenweasel]

wish i`d seen that lujan line.....he`s not to skilled,but he`s a strong welter....

a full fledged welter...1st fight for an old castillo at that weight..


he went 10 hard rounds with margarito and nearly had his ear torn off his head...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQU1TK6gXg0&feature=related

that really opened at +450?...somebody was asleep at the wheel..

i`ll take a flyer on bhop at those odds(+325 a few minutes ago),too....just based on styles...

 

[The Sponge]

i`ll take a flyer on bhop at those odds(+325 a few minutes ago),too....just based on styles...

Boy im the biggest Hopkins fan there is but this is a brutal middleweight (Pavlik) and not someone throwing creampuff punches like Calzaghe. I have to believe this will be his last fight. NO doubt BHop will make him look bad at times but i just can't see him winning.

 

[Ghost Kid]

I am kicking myself in the teeth for missing out on this
one

great catch nj

i think lujan has a huge chance at winning this fight

i'm taking him now at close to even

but +450 ! wow ! did it go right from +450 to +165 in a half hour?

 

[nj]

I am kicking myself in the teeth for missing out on this
one

great catch nj

i think lujan has a huge chance at winning this fight

i'm taking him now at close to even

but +450 ! wow ! did it go right from +450 to +165 in a half hour?

a few guys have been cool enough to post great openers for the board so i wanted to return the favour, thoguh i doubt people were checking in sunday morning. it went from +450 to +165 in about 30 minutes, yes, and was in the +200s for a while in between. i wasnt prepared for this line and had to look into it, by the time i realized how good the play was it was +200 ish, i didnt take it again.

heres the lujan-matthyse fight:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEOgH3Uhw6k

sturdy chin, decent speed and combinations, throws uppercuts and body shots, sloppy hooks, akward and uncoordinated, terrible balance and body control, high-volume punches, doesn't rotate his hips into punches making them shoulder punches, keeps his hands waaaay too low, easy to hit. this was only one fight mind you. i havent watched the margarito fight yet, i want to see if he shows tighter defense and more fluidity.

heres the links full fight:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnHPe27rNlI&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAnAoW1ZMOM&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKF_ayvwbBY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQU1TK6gXg0&feature=related

with castillo's high guard and strong chin i dont see him being stopped by lujan. he doesnt have the angles and tightness of margarito to penetrate guards.

ill probably just take the scalp. im looking forward to priops and o/u lines.

 

[gardenweasel]

a few guys have been cool enough to post great openers for the board so i wanted to return the favour, thoguh i doubt people were checking in sunday morning. it went from +450 to +165 in about 30 minutes, yes, and was in the +200s for a while in between. i wasnt prepared for this line and had to look into it, by the time i realized how good the play was it was +200 ish, i didnt take it again.

heres the lujan-matthyse fight:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEOgH3Uhw6k

sturdy chin, decent speed and combinations, throws uppercuts and body shots, sloppy hooks, akward and uncoordinated, terrible balance and body control, high-volume punches, doesn't rotate his hips into punches making them shoulder punches, keeps his hands waaaay too low, easy to hit. this was only one fight mind you. i havent watched the margarito fight yet, i want to see if he shows tighter defense and more fluidity.

heres the links full fight:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnHPe27rNlI&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAnAoW1ZMOM&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKF_ayvwbBY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQU1TK6gXg0&feature=related

with castillo's high guard and strong chin i dont see him being stopped by lujan. he doesnt have the angles and tightness of margarito to penetrate guards.

ill probably just take the scalp. im looking forward to priops and o/u lines.

i was too late....it was +105....lol

lujan`s a pedestrian brawler....it`s the size that caught my attention....

lujan threw punches for 10 rounds at a fast pace vs margarito....and took alot of shots....

i`m just thinking,after seeing castillo crushed by a body shot from hatton,that maybe a strong guy naturally 7 pounds heavier may have a shot at wearing down an almost 35 year old castillo...

lujan`s nothing special...but he is strong,tough and he tries hard...

my hats off to anybody that got substantial + odds...

btw...check out the youtube video in my panel above...fast forward to the end after the fight`s been stopped and check out lujan`s ear hanging off....


and he was still fighting when they stopped it...,

he`s a tough mofo...

 

[THE_THONG]

i'd wait to see if Castillo makes weight before putting down any bets

i thought i was going to see that f-er fight against tim bradley in cancun but he didn't make weight AGAIN

let me down 2x, first was the third corrales fight

 

[gardenweasel]

congrats night janitor...:00x30

and everybody else that caught those odds...

for those of us that caught it closer to even,it beats a sharp stick in the eye...

i have mixed emotions as i was always a castillo guy when he fought corrales...he was a helluva fighter....

but,father time spares no one...