NEW STARTING QBs

[Nolan Dalla]

In a thread on the "NFL Matchups" forum, one capper commented about youong QBs getting their first NFL start. Since two games this week potentially will involve first-time starters (DET and MINNE), I'd like to see some dicussion on this point for those who care to join:

The original question was "What is the record (SU and/or ATS) for QBs getting their first NFL start?"

I do not know the answer to this question. However, I would like to offer up the theory which seems to have some validity -- that FIRST TIME STARTERS (QB) do not fare nearly as well when they played the previous week.

EXAMPLE: The regular QB gets pulled or is injured in the previous game, and the rookie QB comes off the bench and plays well (this seems to happen often). Then, the rookie gets the start next week and stinks.

The theory is that since the rookie had no prep time (no reason to get nervous or worried about his performance) in the first game, the rookie is able to come in, play "naturally," relying on instincts, and does fairly well. But give that same rookie 6 days to THINK ABOUT starting his first NFL game, and he'll become a bundle of nerves.

Based on this theory, it might be wise to go against the Lions and Vikings this week. Both teams had QBs come off the bench, both played well, and now both are getting their first start this week.

If anyone has some numbers to back this up, or contradict it, I'd be interested to hear more.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[BAINS]

Your exactly right opposing teams never prepare for the backup QB, especially one that they have no film on. Mike Mcmahon who has incredible physical skills, this kid is big, strong, can run in the 4.4 to 4.5 range is built like a linebacker. Green Bay prepared for batch and when Mcmahon got in there they sent 4 lineman with no blitzes are were surprised with Mcmahon's running ability. He relied on breaking out of the pocket and creating plays. Now this week do you think Tampa Bay will underestimate Mcmahon's ability to run. The Bucs defense will be geared to keep Mcmahon in the pocket where he will make mistakes. For a rookie it's always easier to come in and play in certain situations, but to play the entire game, even veterans of the league are struggling with consistency (favre, MCnabb) The only thing that can help a young Qb making his first start is a good running game and a very good defense. Just look at New England, and what they're doing with Brady.... point validated

 

[Valuist]

I think we can take this further and focus on RBs also. Remember the big splash Maurice Smith made when he replaced Jamal Anderson?? Then he had a bad game. Trung Canidate's first start replacing Faulk was huge then I think he rushed for 20 yards in the next game. Dominic Rhodes is another. When James went down, he ended up with 2 long TD runs. I think its about adrenaline. The sudden sense of urgency. These guys are backups for a reason; they aren't as good as the starter. But they were probably stars in college, so when they are locked in and loaded w/adrenaline, they can play as good as the starter. Then the next morning they look at their own stats: "Man, I rushed 22 times for 130 yards. I AM all-that. I SHOULD'VE been starting." Then reality hits; the sense of urgency and adrenaline aren't there, and maybe a little false over-confidence. Just my take.

 

[JSMOOTH]

All very good points here but, in the case of McMahon, I think it's a little different.
I've already capped this game and yes, I'm on the Lions. Mike Mcmahon has played spot duty almost all season, so upcoming teams should have been expecting to see him, therefore preparing for him in some compacity. Sure, there's a difference between a series here and there and starting your first game in the NFL, but he should be pretty well acclimated to the situation.
Also, the "pressure" might not be as big as the Lions are 0-11 and no one expects them to win.

Just my opinion, but I see value in the points. Good Luck

 

[JSMOOTH]

Also, don't forget about Tom Brady. Bledsoe went down in week 2 and Brady came in to replace him. The following week, Brady got his first start and he and the Pats lit up Manning and the Colts 44-13 in Indianapolis.

 

[pepin46]

the theory of first a good game, second a flop is very valid and logical. this applies especially if the replacement happened all of a sudden, like brady, mcmahon.

by logic, the coach will tell his qb (1st game): don't worry if you win or lose, just go out there and play basic ball and do your best. no pressure.

second game: the kid had a decent show his first time out, and now starts getting all the do's and don'ts from the coaching staff and other players. this is the big test, and it helps if you are playing a bad team, where your team can come back and win the game for you, excusing any mistakes you have made. if you are playing a good team, you may be in for a long day.

as far as nolan suggesting that part of the previous game was the first start, well, that is open to debate, since that "first" was not their game. this in itself casts doubts on whether the theory applies here or not.

still, my opinion on this type of situation is that along with the "marked" games to handicap, we should also "cross-out" games that appear to be of a speculative nature, not having any precedent to base a decision on.

and, having said all this, if you pin me against the wall, i will take detroit, but skip tenn, ok, maybe tenn as well.


pep

 

[bigbagrat]

Interesting thread, there's plenty to consider here. How about the difference between first time starting QBs on crappy teams (like Detroit) and a good team (which loses a QB, say, to an injury)? Pep makes a great point about the QB getting "all the do's and don'ts from the coaching staff and other players," but I gotta agree with JSMOOTH and wonder how much an 0-11 team can goof up McMahon.
Another thought, how about the increased number of snaps McMahon, or any backup-turned-starter takes during the week?

 

[djv]

The rare find is good no matter what. The QB that plays with ateam that has a good D and or the running game to offset mistakes are all factors. The rare find for the year is playing with NEng. Minn off line is not very good. The kid if he starts for Minn forsure needs to be able to run real fast or get killed. Det will try and loose again. I don't like TB as big Fav ever. But they might even cover 10, this week. The over has a good chance to. All surprise for these two kids are out of the bag. In short Nolan answer is yes.