New week and some key notes from our Memebers

[Woodson]

After what I feel was a day of falling off of discipline play, I like to use the search option to look through some of our top handicappers notes on handicapping. The following comments were just a few excerpts from over the years:

Thunder
Small home fave and dogs is the the way to go to make money in college hoops- never underestimate home court nor the drop in emotion of teams playing on the road.


Hoops
Follow each teams university website and read the game previews, coaches comments, injury info, etc.

Fletcher
Free Throw shooting is a sign that a team practices fundamentals...which is what ultimately wins games.


Nickel back
Many of you may already be familiar with this "rule" that comes around this time of the year:

If a team faces a "roughly" similar opponent that they have lost to the first two times they have met them in a given year, the third time is usually the charm. Its very difficult to beat a team three straight times in one season unless they are double digit dogs every single time you play them. My favorite example is Michigan/Illinois in 1989 when Michigan played a better Illinois team in the Final Four for the third time that year and won despite losing both conference games and won the National Championship two days later.

There's several years of money management and handicapping tips at your disposal on this site.

Best of luck this week!

:toast:

 

[luvmy$$$]

This late in the season, linemakers have more stats to work with. In turn means tighter lines. I blew a day and a halfs worth of profits sunday, more for fun and recreation, but feeling like chit about it today. Back to the grind, restraint, and cautious wagers. 30 lashes with a wet noodle is what I say.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Not sure how much of this I blindly buy. I like to see statistical evidence back up statements. For example ...

Thunder
Small home fave and dogs is the the way to go to make money in college hoops- never underestimate home court nor the drop in emotion of teams playing on the road.

Sounds good, but there's no evidence presented. Just yesterday, teams in this situation were 3-5 ATS. Sure, that's one day out of a million, but we need to see evidence before accepting this.

Fletcher
Free Throw shooting is a sign that a team practices fundamentals...which is what ultimately wins games.

Is this based on number of attempts, number made, percentage made? The two best teams in FT% in D1 this year have losing records. Last year, three of the top eight in made FT won fewer than 10 games. The year before, the top two teams won 15 and 11 games, respectively.

Nickel backIf a team faces a "roughly" similar opponent that they have lost to the first two times they have met them in a given year, the third time is usually the charm. Its very difficult to beat a team three straight times in one season unless they are double digit dogs every single time you play them. My favorite example is Michigan/Illinois in 1989 when Michigan played a better Illinois team in the Final Four for the third time that year and won despite losing both conference games and won the National Championship two days later.

An example from 20 years ago is used to illustrate this point? How do we even know this is true? It's not true in the NFL. Don't know why that would be different for college basketball.

 

[luvmy$$$]

Tighter lines

Tighter lines

Saturday 2/28, 50 games fell within 6 points or less on either side of line.
Saturday 1/24 38 games fell within 6 points or less on either side of the line.
Same as in football, later in the season lines get tighter.

 

[Woodson]

Don't buy any of it. I welcome any discussion that assists in increasing my bottom line.

What we've seen less of around here is actual discussion related to one's selection vs. blindly (as you put it) following certain cappers.

I find value in all three bits, yet you find it flawed. I see your points however and rightfully so, but do not see where you attempt to add any value.

What do you find significant in capping games towards season's end?

Thanks for sharing.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Don't buy any of it. I welcome any discussion that assists in increasing my bottom line.

What we've seen less of around here is actual discussion related to one's selection vs. blindly (as you put it) following certain cappers.

I find value in all three bits, yet you find it flawed. I see your points however and rightfully so, but do not see where you attempt to add any value.

What do you find significant in capping games towards season's end?

Thanks for sharing.

There might be value in the bits. But where is the value? As you state, don't blindly accept these statements as gospel.

Betting on small home faves and dogs sounds logical. I would like to see evidence that backs it up. Maybe small home faves is actually a good play, but dogs isn't. Or vice versa. And what's a small fave? Is it one or two points? Is three points still small? What's the cutoff? Which maximizes the value? Is it even true? I don't have the resources or time to research it. Until that's done, be wary of accepting this as an ultimate truth.

As we pinpointed on bucklebuck's home-revenge theory, teams that are underdogs at home after getting blown out by that same foe on the road provide the best value in that situation. Hopefully we can marshall the resources to do that with this theory.

For the FT shooting, I'm not sure what it means. What makes a good free-throw team? And the can't-beat-the-same-team-three-times-in-one-season theory I simply don't accept as being true without seeing the results of these games from previous years.