New Zealand PGA Championship

Stanley

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Outright plays (1.5pts):

Jimmy Walker to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Paddy Power
Walker ended his rookie season on the Nationwide Tour in style with five top-10 finishes in the last three months of the season and he has certainly carried on that form this year. He won the opening event on the Tour schedule - the Panama Championship - and then finished 8th last week, only the 2nd American in the top-10. In this second week of the Australasian leg, the American players are expected to perform much better, so Walker should have a good chance of securing another victory this week.

Scott Gutschewski to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Paddy Power
Gutschewski was the other American to finish in the top-10 last week and he was the highest ranked in 5th place. Considering that he only got his first 2003 Nationwide Tour start at the Omaha Classic in August via a sponsor's exemption and that for five weeks he kept earning his way into the following week's event by finishing in the top-25, it is remarkable story of seizing the opportunity. By the end of 2003, he had played in 12 Nationwide Tour events, winning one of them and thus securing his Card for this year. He also finished first in the Tour's par-4 scoring average, birdie average and par breakers stat categories for 2003 as well as 2nd for scoring average. With scoring on this course heavily dependent on the par-4s and par-5s - last year the top-4 on the leaderboard were all in the top-4 in par-4 scoring and top-4 in par-5-scoring - there is more reason to support Gutschewski. As well as ranking 1st in the Nationwide Tour's par-4 scoring average last year [Walker was 3rd], he ranked 5th in par-5 scoring average [Walker was 10th]. He is certainly a player to watch for the future and this looks a very big price.

Jason Caron to win 50/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes [0.75pts to win; 0.75pts to finish in top-five]
Unlike the other selections who are starting their 2nd year on the Nationwide Tour, Caron is back on this Tour after a year on the PGA Tour where he struggled to make the weekends each week. But having finished 4th and 17th in the two Tour events this year, he may yet bounce back for next season. It certainly helps this week that he played in this event last year and he finished in the top-10. With his confidence restored, he looks more than capable of repeating that feat.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Scott Gutschewski to beat Chris Downes -118 @ Expekt
Downes disappointed last week when he could not beat an opponent who had missed the cut. Given that it was his third missed cut in six starts this season, he is opposed this week and he is certainly not the player that Gutschewski threatens to be.

Scott Gutschewski to beat Paul Gow -115 @ Five Dimes
No problems with missed cuts this year with Gow - he has made three from three - but this is part of the long road back to the PGA Tour for him. In their two common events (Jacob's Creek Open and 2003 PGA Tour Q-School), Gutschewski has finished well of Gow and should be a clear favourite in this matchup.

Nick O'Hern to beat Scott Gardiner -133 @ Centrebet and Expekt
He may have been top-ranked in the ratings, but O'Hern was not going to be backed in the outright market for a third week running. He has been playing well, just not getting himself over the winning line. So having finished a full 21 shots ahead of Gardiner on this course last year, O'Hern shouldn't need to get too close to leading the event before closing out this match.
(also available at Five Dimes)

David Smail to beat Gareth Paddison -118 @ Centrebet
Paddison was opposed last week as it was clear that he had been overpriced following his top-10 finish in the Heineken Classic. He missed the cut and having done the same on this course last year, he could very well do the same again this week. Smail's form has dipped after successive top-5 finishes in his first two starts of 2004, but he is by far the better player and a significant improvement in form is expected now that he is back on home soil.

Jimmy Walker to beat Gareth Paddison -110 @ Five Dimes [4.5pts]
Opposing Paddison with an outright selection. Clear case of expecting one player to at least finish in the top-10 and another to struggle to make the cut.

Euan Walters to beat Mahal Pearce -114 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Bit of a danger of a letdown after Walters secured his Nationwide Tour Card with an easy victory last week, but there is a big gulf in form between these two players which should more than compensate. Since the Australasian Tour began last December, Walters has played eight times, finishing in the top-20 on six occasions and winning once. In the same period, Pearce has also played eight times, missing four cuts and just once finishing inside the top-40. Barring a hangover, this should be easy for Walters.
 

lal2000

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Oct 21, 2002
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Outrights (0.5 units e.w.)

B Elder - 125-1 @ SkyBet
C Downes - 50-1 @ SkyBet
T Suzuki - 125-1 @ SkyBet
V Veazey - 100-1 @ SkyBet
J Driscoll - 100-1 @ Paddy Power
B Wetterich - 100-1 @ Paddy Power

Good Luck!
 

lal2000

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Oct 21, 2002
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A few additional e.w. doubles - a bit more focused than usual - all at Paddy Power!

Clark/Senior
Clark/Caron
Tanaka/Senior
Tanaka/Caron
Frazer/Senior
Frazer/Caron

Good Luck!

****************************************
Well, we can forget these - Paddy Power has just informed me that these were all placed 46 Seconds after the match began and have been voided under their Terms & Conditions ? interestingly they have yet to refund my money, but I?m sure that will come in time. I somehow managed to get my timing of the start off by an hour ? my fault ? rules is rules. No doubt one or more will now romp home for a big finish ? and no payout!
 
Last edited:

Stanley

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Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -4.50pts

Walker mc
Gutschewski mc
Caron mc

Doesn't look like a very good performance! But all three had been in contention after the 1st round and we all blown off the course in the difficult blustery conditions on Friday afternoon. They shot 78, 76 and 80 respectively.

Matchups - Final update: 4-2-0; +0.83pts

Gutschewski/Downes WON by 3
Gutschewski/Gow LOST by 4
O'Hern/Gardiner WON by 6
Smail/Paddison WON by 6
Walker/Paddison LOST by 9
Walters/Pearce WON by 5

Offset the losses on the outrights to a small degree. A good performance overall, but it was costly to lose the triple-play matchup. Walker only needed to make the cut to win this match - Paddison finished 2nd last over the weekend - but the outright selection had three double-bogeys in the last five holes to miss the cut by five.

Australasian Tour ytd
Outrights: 1-14; -21.38pts
Matchups: 13-11; -4.81pts
 
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