NEWSLETTERS: 1/9 THRU 1/15

[GIANTS007]

WINNING POINTS



*Green Bay over Seattle by 14
Matt Hasselbeck won?t be making any brass scoring predictions because
this playoff game isn?t going into overtime.The Packers beat the Seahawks
in overtime at home four seasons ago to win a wildcard playoff game when
Al Harris returned a Hasselbeck pass for a touchdown after Hasselbeck said,
?We want the ball and we?re going to score,? during the overtime coin flip.
The Packers are home, rested, healthy, have a solid defense, a balanced bigplay
offense, underrated special teams and solid coaching. The Seahawks
can match the Packers in coaching and have playmakers on defense. But
Hasselbeck isn?t Brett Favre.Shaun Alexander isn?t the runner he was before
guard Steve Hutchinson left for free agency and fullback Mack Strong
retired. The Seahawks are 8-1 at home this season. They dominated four
games against San Francisco and St. Louis, whose combined record was 8-
24. But away from Qwest Field, Seattle was 3-5. Seattle coach Mike
Holmgren is 1-3 at Lambeau Field against his former team.The Seahawks are
0-2 in road playoff games under Holmgren.Their road to the playoffs was a
marshmallow roast.The Seahawks met only two teams that won double-digits
games, losing 21-0 to Pittsburgh and 33-30 to Cleveland in overtime. If
you discount their wins against the Rams and 49ers, the Seahawks would
rank second-to-last in the NFC in defense and third-worst defensively in the
entire NFL. Their defense, without their loud stadium crowd, is far less
intimidating on the road. All Green Bay has done this season is win and
cover games,going 12-3-1 ATS.The Seahawks can?t run any more.Their passing
attack isn?t strong enough to overcome the cold-weather elements at
Lambeau and star cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Harris.The Packers,on
the other hand, have become a balanced machine thanks to the emergence
of Ryan Grant. Favre?s play-action fakes now mean something.The Packers
have the deepest set of wideouts in the NFC with Donald Driver, Greg
Jennings, James Jones and Koren Robinson.The Seahawks? best hope is in
getting turnovers Seattle was an impressive plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways.
However, Favre has done a much better job this season of limiting
his turnovers. He completed a career-best 66.5 percent of his passes, while
throwing for 28 TDs.The Seahawks breezed because they were in a weak
division.They don?t have the goods to step up here. GREEN BAY 28-14.




*New England over Jacksonville by 7
Are the Jaguars the most dangerous type of playoff foe, or the same inconsistent
team that can?t win in the postseason and nearly lost to the Steelers
last week after leading 28-10? The Jaguars like to believe they have become
relevant again among the hierarchy, even though last Saturday?s playoff victory
was their first since 1999. We?re buying into that somewhat.
Unfortunately for the Jaguars, they draw New England.This isn?t to say the
Jaguars can?t cover ? they certainly can ? but winning could prove difficult.
The Patriots are on a march to prove they are the greatest team of all-time.
So far the qualifications are there: unbeaten season, 19 straight victories,
Tom Brady an MVP season capped by an all-time high 50 touchdown passes
and Randy Moss setting a single-season touchdown record for receivers.
This is the challenge facing the Jaguars.They have two key things going ?
they can run and stop the run.The Jaguars led the AFC in rushing, finishing
No. 2 overall in the NFL averaging just under 150 yards per game on the
ground. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 1,970 rushing
yards and 14 touchdowns.David Garrard was surprisingly steady and also is
effective running when flushed out of the pocket.The Patriots are solid on
defense and extremely well-coached.Their offense scored a league-record
589 points, an average of 36.8 points per game. New England can?t score,
though, if it doesn?t have the ball. Jacksonville has the ingredients to effectively
play ball-control. Having an extra week of rest definitely should help
New England. However, the Patriots haven?t been real sharp. Perhaps they
continue flat. New England has covered only one of its past six games,
while looking vulnerable in narrow victories against the Eagles and Ravens.
They beat four of their last six foes ? Eagles, Ravens, Jets and Giants ? by a
combined 19 points. That?s an average victory margin of 4.7 points. Only
the Giants of those teams qualified for the postseason. Jacksonville?s
defense ranked a respectable 10th in scoring, yielding 19 points per contest,
while placing 12th overall giving up 313.8 yards per game.The Jaguars
have a ball-hawking secondary coming up with 20 interceptions, tied for
fourth-highest in the NFL.Weather could factor in this matchup. Despite
being from Florida, though, the Jaguars are built for bad conditions as they
proved twice in inclement weather at Pittsburgh during the last four
weeks. It?s the Patriots, with their precision passing attack, that could be
hurt more by wet, snowy and windy weather. NEW ENGLAND 27-20.





*Indianapolis over San Diego by 13
Back in Week 10, the Colts traveled to San Diego to meet the Chargers as
three-point favorites.Things couldn?t have gone any better for the Chargers.
The evening weather was bad with rain; Darren Sproles returned both a
kickoff and punt for touchdowns and Peyton Manning threw a franchiseworst
six interceptions. Given all that you would think the Chargers would
have beaten the Colts by three touchdowns at home, right? Heck, San Diego
was lucky to escape with a 23-21 victory. Normally reliable and clutch kicker
Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals, including a 29-yarder with 1:31 left
that may have given Indianapolis the victory. If the Chargers can?t prevail
with all those circumstances going their way, how do they win this
matchup at Indianapolis? fast-track dome stadium? They don?t unless you
believe Hall of Famer Manning is going to throw seven interceptions,
Sproles is going to return three kicks for touchdowns and possible Hall of
Famer Vinatieri is going to blow three field goals of under 43 yards like he
did back in Week 10. The Chargers have turned around their season after
opening 1-3. They?ve won and covered their last seven games. However,
their only opponent with a winning record during this span was Tennessee.
The good news for San Diego is Marty Schottenheimer isn?t coaching this
playoff game. The bad news is that Norv Turner is. Tony Dungy against
Turner is a mismatch. Philip Rivers finished the regular-season with three
straight games of passer ratings of 100 or above. LaDainian Tomlinson
remains the best back in football. The Titans held Tomlinson to 42 yards
rushing on 21 carries, though.The Colts? run defense is respectable.They?ll
be keying on Tomlinson just like the Titans did, daring Rivers to beat them.
Despite Rivers? recent strong statistical performances, he has yet to prove
himself under difficult road conditions. He also may not have his top receiving
threat, three-time Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates. He was carted off
the field during Sunday?s playoff win against the Titans with a toe injury.
Manning has multiple weapons.The Colts have been holding back Marvin
Harrison.This is the matchup where the Colts unleash Harrison to go with
Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai. It was Wayne, not Randy Moss,
who led the NFL in receiving yards this season.The Colts have been idle for
three weeks if you count their Week 17 loss to the Titans when Dungy sat
down most of his regulars for most of the game. They?ll be ready. INDIANAPOLIS
30-17.




New York Giants over *Dallas by 1
Since beating Green Bay, Dallas has done nothing except look bad and sustain
injuries.During their last four games, the Cowboys nipped the Lions by
one point - thanks to a missed short field goal by normally reliable Jason
Hanson - edge the Eagles by four at home, beat the Panthers in a flat performance
and roll over to the Redskins by hardly trying in a 27-6 loss.The
Cowboys are averaging less than 11 points during their past three games.
That?s not a real good way to enter your opening playoff game.The Giants,
on the other hand, have established momentum.They can play loose with
the pressure squarely on Dallas. Eli Manning has stepped up to play well in
the Giants? last two games versus New England and Tampa Bay. Manning has
temporarily silenced his critics now that he?s achieved a playoff win.The
Giants have responded best in those cases when they?re not expected to
win. That?s been their style all season. They nearly upset the undefeated
Patriots two weeks ago, losing 38-35.They are 8-1 SU on the road, 7-2 ATS.
Brandon Jacobs is running well, the secondary is holding up, while the
defensive line continues to get sacks. New York led the NFL with 53 sacks.
The Giants have covered eight of their last 11 versus NFC competition.
They know the Cowboys well, too, having played them twice.The Cowboys
got hit by injuries late in the season. Pro Bowl center Andre Gurode and
Terrell Owens may not be able to play.Veteran wide receiver Terry Glenn is
back for Dallas after being sidelined nearly the entire season because of
knee trouble.Owens is their main weapon. He suffered a high ankle sprain
against Carolina. Being a quick healer, he may be able to play although
probably not at 100 percent. The Cowboys only have managed four field
goals in six quarters being without Owens.The last time Dallas won a playoff
game was 1996.Yes it has been that long.Tony Romo had an excellent
season, yet remains largely untested in postseason competition.The Giants
have double-revenge going for them.They know they can certainly score on
Dallas at Texas Stadium having put up 35 points and gained 438 yards when
they met the Cowboys opening week on the road. It?s not the easiest thing
beating a quality team three times in a season, but that?s what the Cowboys
are trying to accomplish here.They may be able to do it, but it won?t come
easy. NY GIANTS 28-27.









HOOPS:


Friday, January 11

***BEST BET
Washington over *Atlanta by 7
The Wizards entered 2008 giving up 6.5 fewer points per game than last season, the
second-best improvement of any team. Their improved defense has allowed them to
stay in matchups even if Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are cold, which hasn?t happened
too often. The Wizards have fared well against less-than-elite teams, point guard
Antonio Daniels is back from a knee injury and Andray Blatche has been a pleasant
surprise in the frontcourt. The Hawks remain thin at guard with Tyronn Lue and
Salim Stoudamire injured. WASHINGTON 100-93


***BEST BET
*New Orleans over Miami by 17
ESPN might want to back out of televising this mismatch. The Heat aren?t even paying
lip service to defense, have an abundance of injuries ? when Dwayne Wade is their
healthiest player you know you have a MASH unit ? and are playing in their fifth
straight road game and third in four nights. The Hornets had covered eight of their
past nine through Jan. 8. Chris Paul against the Heat?s defenseless point guards is a
mismatch of biblical proportions. NEW ORLEANS 108-91



***BEST BET
*Los Angeles Lakers over Milwaukee by 18
Revenge, situational edge and the Bucks? terrible road history make the Lakers worthy
of Best Bet status . Kobe Bryant rarely plays bad twice in a row vs. the same team. He
didn?t look good when the Bucks knocked of the Lakers back in November as a small
home underdog. Bryant shot just seven-of-18 from the field. The Bucks have only one
day to adjust to West Coast time and atmosphere after playing on Wednesday night.
Flying from cold weather to sunny LA can hurt a team mentally. It?s Milwaukee?s
fourth game in six days. Until defeating the undermanned Heat earlier this month,
Milwaukee had won just two of its first 17 road matchups. LA LAKERS 112-94.





Saturday, January 12



***BEST BET
Detroit over *Charlotte by 15
Not only do the Pistons have the best pointspread mark through 32 games at 22-9-1
ATS, but were winning decisively capturing 19 of their first 25 victories by doubledigits.
We like that in a strong favorite. We also like the Pistons being 11-5-1 ATS
through their first 17 away contests. Detroit?s bench is much stronger this season,
Richard Hamilton has been on fire and its defense ranked No. 2 holding foes to less
than 90 points per contest. DETROIT 102-87.



***BEST BET
Indiana over *Sacramento by 10
As an up-tempo, jump-shooting team, the Pacers should be enjoying their West Coast
trip. This is stop No. 4 on the five-game Western swing and the Kings represent the
one easy matchup Indiana has. The Pacers have had two full days off after opening
with the Lakers, Jazz and Suns. Sacramento is playing short-handed and its bench is
depleted because its reserves are practically all starting now. INDIANA 116-106.




Sunday, January 13
***BEST BET
Portland over *Toronto by 5
The Trail Blazers certainly should have their legs, this being only their second game in
nine days. The Raptors had problems keeping Brandon Roy in check when they lost
at Portland a month ago, 101-96. Despite batting the flu, Roy scored 25 points,
grabbed nine rebounds and dished off eight assists. The Blazers have covered 15 of
their last 17 through the first week in January. The Raptors have still been missing
injured point guard T.J. Ford (check status). PORTLAND 103-98.



***BEST BET
New Orleans over *Houston by 7
The Rockets still may be without Tracy McGrady (check status), while the Hornets
have been one of the best road teams going 22-6-2 ATS through Jan. 8. The Rockets,
by contrast, don?t have a winning home pointspread mark. The Hornets can compete against any club with a healthy Chris Paul, Peja Stojakovic and David West (check status).
The Hornets ranked No. 4 defensively entering the first weekend this month.
They had held 10 straight foes under 100 points going into the first weekend of
January. NEW ORLEANS 102-95.







Saturday, January 12


***BEST BET
George Mason* over Northeastern by 25
Matt Janning, we know who you are now. A year ago, Northeastern?s slender 6-4 guard
was wandering alone on the perimeter and knockin? em down vs. CAA foes. This season,
his first two CAA outings resulted in 6- and 12-point personal production and 0-
2 ATS against opponents who are not (purportedly) the conference?s best. After already
having played 10 road games this season, the CAA?s northernmost output (Boston)
gets to start making longer trips into the Virginias and Carolinas for conference season.
Oh, joy. Northeastern coach Coen wants to play games in the 60s and if you add
the scores and divide by two, that?s what he?ll get. GEORGE MASON, 73-48.


***BEST BET
St.Mary?s* over Santa Clara by 24
Who lost twice to Santa Clara last season, including a meek 63-47 bow-out from the
WCC Tournament? That would be St. Mary?s, infused for 2007-08 with more dynamic
point guard play and more experienced forwards. Santa Clara?s penetrate-and-kick
game isn?t much, especially compared to what St. Mary?s is. At some point, funneling
too much of the offense through the leaden form of 300-pounder John Bryant will
deaden Santa Clara?s punch and this is a good spot for it to go limp while St. Mary?s
runs happily up and down the floor. ST. MARY?S, 84-60.


Sunday, January 13



***BEST BET
Syracuse over West Virginia* by 10
If you thought that we thought Syracuse was overrated, you haven?t heard the dissertation
against West Virginia, who will be ordered to hit the weight room at halftime
of this affair. You don?t go from Beilein to Huggins without more than a few bumps
along the way and since non-conference season didn?t show it, we might as well expect
it to materialize now, as a Big East team with both size and scorers enters the home of
what some people who have written about college basketball have comically labeled as
Huggins? ?typically tough defense.? Chuckle, chuckle and thanks, we think. SYRACUSE,
85-75.

 

[GIANTS007]

THE SPORTS REPORTER


SATURDAY, JANUARY 12
*GREEN BAY over SEATTLE by 2
The early forecast says 21 degrees, dry and 9 mph winds for the Lambeau Field area -- just
another nice, cold day in Green Bay. It also says that besides old reliable Donald Driver, some of
Bret Favre?s young pups in the receiving corps are untested under pressure in sub-freezing
weather. Packers? head coach Mike McCarthy, in 1999 the quarterbacks coach for the Packers
in Mike Holmgren?s final Green Bay season before he bolted for Seattle, tutored Matt Hasselbeck
when Space Boy was Brett Favre?s rookie back-up that season, so there is plenty of offensive
intimacy among the participants in this match-up. There are also plenty of similarities in the production
of each offensive unit this season. Contentious post-season road losses have been a
trademark of Space Boy Matt and the Flying Holmgrens since the ex-Packers? head coach
(1992-98) and Bill Walsh Coaching Tree descendant got the Seahawks going again. Both of
Seattle?s post-season road trips ? in 2003 to Green Bay and 2006 to Chicago ? featured the
Seahawks taking about +8 and losing in overtime. The 2003 game at Green Bay was Space
Boy?s infamous ?We?ll take the ball, and we?re gonna score,? speech made on Favre?s turf at the
overtime coin toss. Last season, Seattle?s defense was pretty banged-up when they went into
Chicago and allowed a Rex (Ugh) Grossman-led offense to gain 377 yards against them. But
Seattle?s offense moved the ball well enough to squeeze 108 yards from RB Shaun Alexander
and score 24 points. Little errors at crucial moments on both offense and defense cost them.
"We had this game," said DB Jordan Babineaux. "It was right there for us. Said Sports Reporter
readers: ?It was an easy Midweek Update Best Bet cover!? Bolstered this off-season with the
signings of safety Deon Grant and DE Patrick Kearney, the Seattle defense now owns the NFC?s
best opposing QB Rating (73.0) and the NFL?s best Defensive Yards Per Point Rating (19.8).
Matched up against Mr. Favre, we now get to see whether those ratings and ranks were a function
of facing Leinart/Warner and Smith/Dilfer twice, or whether Kearney?s extra sacks and
Grant?s improved coverage (compared to the discarded Michael Boulware) are as ?for real? as
the Marcus Trufant singled out in this space last week, who went out and changed the game
against the Redskins with an INT return for a TD. Since Green Bay?s October 21 bye week, the
Packers have played exactly one competently balanced opponent ? Dallas ? and their 12-3-1
ATS record might be a little past its value peak. GREEN BAY, 22-20.





*NEW ENGLAND over JACKSONVILLE by 17
The Jags just concluded a 3-0 SU and ATS sweep of the Steelers that had begun in Week 2 of
the 2006 season. They have Pittsburgh?s number, but the Patriots had Jacksonville?s number in
a first-round playoff match-up in 2005 (28-3), and also in a late-season 24-21 win at
Jacksonville a year ago when the Jags were desperately seeking a win to stay alive for the postseason,
while the Patriots were in coasting mode. Jacksonville did a nice job taking advantage
of a Steelers team that was hanging by a thread, missing its very important #1 running back and
a pair of offensive linemen. They got to Ben Roethlisberger a lot, but a lot of teams got to Big Ben
this season ? he was sacked for 21 yards per game! Allowing a team hanging by a thread to
come back and erase your 18-point lead not a good sign for the Jags in this match-up against
a better opponent, a fresh team with no important injuries. Opponents have tried to get to Tom
Brady all season, and mostly failed. Jacksonville?s 153 rushing yards per game looks nice until
you realize that they can rush for all the yards they want to when down by 14 points ? they?re
still gonna have to punt a few times and risk going down by three scores. David Garrard as a
passer while trailing? Not gonna want that, sorry. The early weather forecast is for an overnight
low of 24 degrees on a dry and calm night, and football wagering nation is currently divided into
two groups of people: Group A thinks that the Patriots -- now 1-5 ATS in their last six games after
being 8-0 ATS to start ? are about to flip a ?re-dominate and reverse? switch and roll a
Jacksonville team that was 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in approximately the same span of New England?s
less dominant winning efforts. Group B thinks that laying two scores in a match-up against a
Jags team that averaged 27.1 points per game this regular season, with a Patriots team that
allowed an average of 17.6 points per game in the regular season, is a dicey proposition. By the
way, the 17-0 SU Miami Dolphins of 1972 won their AFC Playoff Games by only 6 points against
Cleveland and 4 points against Pittsburgh. But there is no real connection between that team 35
years ago, and these Pats. NEW ENGLAND, 34-17.









SUNDAY, JANUARY 13
BEST BET
SAN DIEGO over *INDIANAPOLIS by 3
Norv! Stormin? Norval! Whose got the momentum now, baby? Who?s comin? into the house
of the Super Bowl Champs, who want, and were watching and waiting for, a re-match from
their ?depleted? loss in San Diego earlier this season? It?s the supercharged, pumped up,
man of passion, the Man Who Would Lead The Chargers to the Super Bowl, the man with all
the experience in big games on the road in the post-season (wink-wink), and Tony Dungy is
shaking! Well, maybe not shaking. Maybe just sweating a little.Well, maybe not sweating at
all. But he?s not smiling, that?s for sure, because Dungy is aware that the Chargers? personnel
gave them fits in a home win three years ago, a home loss two years ago, and that San
Diego is now a more mature and better balanced team, possibly better primed now than they
were in that Sunday night game in Week 10 this season when all the talk was ? and might
still be in an attempt to make a case for the Colts here -- about how the Colts were missing
14 players. But as Norvus the Great told the media last week, ?We didn?t just want to be a
team that handed it to LaDainian on every play.? Hey, it took some time to get away from
that. Tomlinson was held in check last Sunday by Tennessee, yet the Chargers still won and
covered. That?s progress, no matter how ugly it might have looked. Tomlinson got only 76
yards in the first meeting against the Colts this season, yet San Diego won and covered. That
was progress, too, although six picks thrown by Peyton Manning helped the Chargers? cause
that night. Of course, you need a decent rush and a secondary capable of getting picks to
pick Manning, and San Diego, as mentioned last week, got 30 INTs in the regular season so
it wasn?t a total freak of a farce of a fraud, you know? Gotta tell ya ? if the Chargers hadn?t
lost to New England in the first round of the 2006 post-season, this paper would have been
all over the Bolts in a match-up against the Colts, who instead got to hook a tired New
England defense that they were able to come back against. In essence, we?ve been waiting
a year for this match-up to happen, and we?re not gonna let a little injury to TE Antonio Gates
(damn!) mess it up. Hopefully Norv Nation won?t, either. SAN DIEGO, 27-24.




*DALLAS over NY GIANTS by 9
They say that it?s damn near impossible to beat a team three times in one season. Naturally,
?they? ignore the fact that 11 of the 17 prior 2-0 teams since the 1970 merger (65%) went 3-0
with a subsequent playoff win. The Cowboys haven?t beaten the Giants three times this season
yet, but they have beaten New York three straight times, twice at Giants Stadium: 23-20, 45-35,
31-20. So, the Giants scored five touchdowns in one of those losses to Dallas, yet still lost the
game by 10 points. Not a good sign. The one win by New York against the Cowboys since last
season was the landmark game for the Dallas franchise, when then-head coach Bill Parcells
mercifully yanked Drew Bledsoe at halftime of yet another woeful effort at quarterback, and
inserted Tony Romo. The cold Romo threw three quick-picks in an outing where Dallas had to
experience pain if there was to be any gain. There was subsequent gain, and continues to be,
and part of those gains are the three wins noted above against this division rival with the big
pass rush, big running back, and young pup quarterback with a completion percentage 9.5 percentage
points behind Romo?s The Giants looked great last week at Tampa Bay, but we guilty
parties picking the Bucs to win forgot to factor in the Bucs? woefully weak schedule, and the fact
that Jeff Garcia ain?t a post-season quarterback no mo?. Scoreboard situation ? never trailing by
more than one score -- enabled Brandon Jacobs? running to be the factor the Giants want it to
be, and Manning making short throws was effective to maintain possession. But Garcia wasn?t
going to beat them deep. Romo can, Romo has, and if the Cowboys manage to get a two-score
lead, Dallas has a big o-line and a pair of non-fumbling running backs who won?t be giving the
ball back to the Giants? offense as often as the Bucs did. The Giants are 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS on the
road this season, but if they had been playing the Cowboys on the road every Sunday, they might
have been 0-8 SU on the road this season. The Giants made two interceptions and recovered a
fumbled kickoff return in the second half last week, for a +3 TO Ratio. The G-Men were +2 in
TOs the last time they beat Dallas. Since then,?1, +1 and +1 in three straight losses so it looks
like they might need more boo-boos than the Cowboys will provide. DALLAS, 30-21




NBA

FRIDAY, JANUARY 11


BEST BET
*DENVER over ORLANDO by 13
While the Magic built the bulk of their record on phenomenal early season road play, they
haven?t been the same team outside of November. Dwight Howard is starting to look
fatigued and faces the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Marcus Camby. Denver has
more than enough firepower to outgun the Magic, who will be playing their third road game
since Tuesday. DENVER 114-101



SATURDAY, JANUARY 12

BEST BET
*UTAH over ORLANDO by 14
As stated before, the Magic look like a tired team and they?ve quickly figured out that
despite Rashard Lewis? pretty shot, he doesn?t exactly do a good job of rebounding for a
6?10? fellow. While Dwight Howard is a beast, he looks pretty beat and the Jazz spent
Friday resting while the Magic played a tough game in Denver. Carlos Boozer should find
room to operate in the post while Deron Williams will take advantage of the chaotic point
guard situation in Orlando. UTAH 103-89



SUNDAY, JANUARY 13

BEST BET
*GOLDEN STATE over INDIANA by 18
The blockbuster trade from last season has so far been an utter debacle for the Pacers
while turning the Warriors into one of the NBA?s most marketable teams. What happened to
Larry Bird, exactly? Tonight is Indiana?s chance for short-term redemption but they are finishing
a five-game Western Conference road trip by finishing a back-to-back in Northern
California. That revenge will just have to wait until Wednesday?s rematch in the Hoosier
state. GOLDEN STATE 119-101





COLLEGE HOOPS


BEST BET
*WISCONSIN over ILLINOIS by 26
This should be very ugly business, given nicked-up Illini, whose broad health status in
part led to successful Buckeye invasion of Assembly Hall. Illinois continues to suffer from
paucity of multiple reliable scoring options of legitimate Big Ten calibre, and so long as visitor
remains offensively challenged (on so many levels), down-to-earth, professional
Badgers figure to look to minimize their own mistakes, while keeping the pressure on until
fragile Illini crack wide open. Looking for cries of anguish to emerge from Champaign-
Urbana before much longer. WISCONSIN, 76-50


SATURDAY, JANUARY 12



BEST BET
*GEORGETOWN over CONNECTICUT by 18
Feel compelled to fade Huskies in these spots, as early promise of the raw roster has not
borne fruit, with the deterioration largely due to Jim Calhoun?s kids de-evolving into a collection
of lone wolves, playing for themselves. Connecticut?s had this kind of the total-isless-
than-the-sum-of-the-parts seasons under Calhoun before, and first half against Irish
was further graphic evidence. This kind of internal dissolution is raw meat for these Hoyas,
who?ll be ready for this after John Thompson III got after them in Saturday?s sloppy win over
lowly Rutgers. GEORGETOWN, 80-62.


BEST BET
OHIO STATE over *PURDUE by 18
Two Big Ten entities steaming in opposite directions. Until proven otherwise, Boilermakers
have the worst chemistry in the Big Ten (don?t think it?s Matt Painter?s fault; you play the
hand you?ve got), which devalues their power rating. You have to be impressed with That
Matta?s graceful reload. Bucks boast quality young raw material, which is jelling/maturing
by the week. Don?t expect this to get too far out of control ? it is a conference game, after
all ? but Purdue guard play leaves so much to be desired that OSU only need mind their
own business. OHIO STATE, 75-57.

 

[GIANTS007]

THE GOLD SHEET



NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
PLUS COMPREHENSIVE HOOP COVERAGE!
NATION-WIDE SPORTS PUBLICATIONS COPYRIGHT ? 2008

VOLUME 51 JANUARY 11-17, 2008 NO. 20

NFL PLAYOFF ANALYSIS
SEATTLE (11-6) at GREEN BAY (13-3)

Saturday, January 12, 2008

TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Seattle 11-6 10-7 25 1810024648-10-3110122134-16-17 10 4.2 8.8
Green Bay 13-3 12-3 27 1810027149-13-30103210 31-6-23 4 3.6 6.7

GREEN BAY 24 - Seattle 23?Familiarity angles abound in this matchup.
Green Bay?s last home playoff victory was 33-27 in overtime vs. Seattle in
2003, when the bold Matt Hasselbeck said the Seahawks would take the ball
after winning the OT coin flip, boasting into the microphone, ?We want the ball.
We?re going to score.? He then proceeded to throw an interception into the
hands of Packer CB Al Harris, who easily returned it the distance for the
winning TD. Hasselbeck, of course, was Brett Favre?s backup two years in
Green Bay before being dealt to Seattle. Mike McCarthy was Packer QB
coach under then-HC Ray Rhodes the season after Mike Holmgren?s ended his
stay in Packerland to take over in the Emerald City.

But enough with familiarity and coincidence. The underdog Seahawks are
the preference here for far more substantial reasons, even despite G.B.?s
league-leading 12-3-1 pointspread mark TY and Brett Favre?s unexpectedly
magical 2007 campaign when he hit 66.5% with 28 TDs & 15 ints., breaking a
slew of lifetime passing records along the way.

In short, Seattle has its own playoff-seasoned QB in Hasselbeck (62.6%,
28 TDs, 12 ints. in the regular season), a more experienced and slightly more
versatile ground game featuring Shaun Alexander & Maurice Morris, an equal
defense (both teams gave up exactly 291 points in the regular season), and a
more experienced kicker in Josh Brown. And the Seahawks? aggressive
pass rushers racked up 45 sacks in the regular season compared with G.B?s

36. Moreover, WR Nate Burleson turned out to be a revelation as a KR & PR.
Seattle has been tough to finish off as an underdog, going 10-1 getting
more than a TD the last 11 seasons. Contrariwise, the Packers have failed to
cover their last three in the playoffs at the previously-impenetrable fortress of
Lambeau Field. This will be Holmgren?s 24th playoff game; McCarthy?s first.
And let?s remember that there is still a core of Seahawk players who
advanced to the Super Bowl two seasons ago and took the then-powerful
Bears to overtime in this same Divisional Round LY (losing 27-24 in overtime in
Chicago), while G.B. had one of the youngest rosters in the NFL in 2007.
(07 Preseason: Green Bay -3 beat Seattle 48-13 at Green Bay)
(06-SEA. 34-G. Bay 24...S.29-14 S.48/235 G.19/51 G.22/36/3/259 S.17/36/3/147 S.1 G.1)
(06-SEATTLE -9' 34-24...SR: Green Bay 7-5)

KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES

Home team in CAPS. *?indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the
following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/
passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category
the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent
meetings in series. P?Pick Game. SR?Series Record (official league games only), with team
leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL?No Line. OPR?Average Opponents?
Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined
and denoted with a star (H).

Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC?Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game,
when listed in score line). ?O??Offense. ?D??Defense. DDs?Double Digits. OL?Offensive Line
or Lineman. DL?Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.?Offensive Coordinator. d.c.?
Defensive Coordinator. YR?Yards Rushing. YP?Yards Passing. recs.?Receptions.
ints.?Interceptions. STs?Special Teams. ypg?Yards per Game. ppg?Points per Game. ypc?
Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY?Last Year. TY?This Year. Y?Year or Years.
TDP?Touchdown Passes. FA?Free Agent. SU?Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best
rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

JACKSONVILLE (12-5) at NEW ENGLAND (16-0)

Saturday, January 12, 2008

TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Jacksonville12-511-6 26 20 148 202 54-20-29 97 219 39-14-22 10 2.6 4.8

N. England 16-010-6 37 17 116 296 75-17-50 98 190 34-7-23 16 5.7 5.6
NEW ENGLAND 36 - Jacksonville 17?With Jacksonville on such a nice
late-season roll (7-1 its last 8?excluding its meaningless reg.-season loss in its
finale at Houston), it is very tempting to side with the fearless, physical Jaguars.
But to go against the ?perfect? Patriots?when they are rested, focused, and
with their ?evil? genius coach Belichick given extra time to plot his beloved game
plan?without every extra edge (namely, at least a two-TD oddsmaker cushion
here), appears to be the lower-percentage play.

Yes, it is true that N.E. was 2-6 vs. the spread to end the regular season. And
also that five of its last eight wins were recorded by margins of 4, 3, 3, 10, and
3 points. But let?s keep in mind that the Pats have proven themselves to be an
extraordinary team in 2007, able to keep their regular season in perspective
despite the constant hype, focusing on each opponent in turn, game-by-game,
never getting ahead of themselves and always speaking of the bigger picture?
namely, the home-field edge throughout the AFC playoffs and the ring at the end
of the season. With Belichick in command and Brady leading the charge, you
can expect them to be at their best in this one, especially with the rock ?em, sock
?em Jags representing a bona fide threat.

While we have nothing but respect for the performance of Jacksonville QB
David Garrard this season (64%, 18 TDs, 3 ints.; 1 TD, 2 ints. in his first playoff
start last week in Pittsburgh), his receiving corps is none too scary, allowing
Belichick to load up vs. the run with his deep corps of defensive linemen and oh-
so-experienced LBs. Jag RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew might break
through that curtain. But if they don?t, the young Garrard is likely to suffer the
same fate as the young version of Peyton Manning and other QBs during the
six-year Brady-Belichick run, when the Pats have gone 12-2 SU in the playoffs
(8-5-1 vs. the spread; 4-1-1 at home).

The numbers of Brady (record 50 TDs vs. 8 ints.), Randy Moss (record 23
TDs), and Wes Welker (112 recs.) are mighty, like N.E.?s 16-0 record, indicative
of a ?special? team. But the somewhat-overlooked defense was fourth overall,
second in sacks, sixth in interceptions, and third in rushing TDs allowed (only 7).
The rough-and-ready Jags are 6-2 as a dog TY. There is no disrespect for them
here. Merely a preference for the exceptional Patriots and their exceptional
coach and QB, especially when those two appear to have a definitive
preparation/experience edge on their side.
06-N. Eng. 24-JACK. 21...N.22-12 J.22/144 N.30/117 N.28/39/0/242 J.17/23/0/195 N.0 J.1)
(06-New England +3 24-21...SR: New England 6-1)

THE GOLD SHEET
HOME TEAM in CAPS. Totals in brackets ( ). NL-No Line.


G. BAY-Seattle G.6 G.9(40?) G.9
N. ENG.-Jack. N.13 N.11?(48?) N.13
INDY-San Diego P.10? P.9(46?) P.10
DALLAS-NY Gia. D.6? D.7?(47) D.8?
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please
note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the
underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the
pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.


THE GOLD SHEET PAGE 2


SAN DIEGO (12-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (13-3)

Sunday, January 13, 2008

TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

San Diego 12-5 12-5 25 1712419351-20-2310820835-11-20 25 6.0 5.9
In'apolis 13-3 9-7 28 1610725254-19-3210717331-10-16 18 4.3 4.5

INDIANAPOLIS 31 - San Diego 13?Sometimes, we?re tempted to dismiss
entirely any regular-season meetings between postseason combatants. And
we certainly don?t expect the same set of circumstances to occur in this
rematch of San Diego?s hard-to-explain 23-21 win over Indy back on
November 11 at Qualcomm Stadium. But so many of the particulars of that
matchup were out of the ordinary that we simply have to rehash some of them
to lend a proper backdrop to our analysis of this playoff battle.

The surreal tenor of that Sunday night clash was established on the opening
kickoff, when the Chargers? Darren Sproles went 89 yards for TD. Before the
first quarter was finished, Sproles scored on another return, taking a Hunter
Smith punt 45 yards to the house, staking underdog San Diego to a 16-0 lead
after barely 9 minutes of action. The lead mushroomed to 23-0 before the Colts
began to chip away, and Indy was even positioned to win the game in the final
minutes when normally-reliable PK Adam Vinatieri pushed a routine 29-yard FG
wide to the right. When the dust settled, San Diego was a 23-21 winner, and
Peyton Manning had endured his worst night as a pro, suffering six
interceptions (three of those by CB Antonio Cromartie) and recording a career-
low 30.6 passer rating for the game. The Bolts did little offensively, and almost
nothing in the final 30 minutes, outgained better than 2-to-1 while QB Philip
Rivers experienced a brutal night, passing for just 104 yards. But those returns
by Sproles and Manning?s inordinately uncharacteristic sloppiness, not to
mention Vinatieri?s rare miss, added up to a frustrating night for Indy.

Do we expect anything close to those circumstances arising again in what
might be the last-ever game at the RCA Dome? In a word?no!

The dynamics are going to be far different for the rematch, one the
defending-champ Colts dare not overlook as they might have the last two series
meetings, which also include San Diego?s 26-17 win in ?05 that stopped a 13game
Indy win streak. Expect a sharper Manning, especially since key WR
Marvin Harrison (who missed the Nov. 11 clash) is likely going to be available for
the first time in more than two months. The Colt stop unit proved it could deal
with L.T. in the first meeting, allowing him a modest 76 YR, and Indy?s top-ranked
pass defense (which shackled Rivers in November) might have even less to
worry about if star Charger TE Antonio Gates is limited (or absent altogether)
after last week?s toe injury vs. the Titans. Moreover, San Diego might be feeling
a sense of relief after finally getting a long-awaited playoff win that had it eluded
them for 13 agonizing years. And the thought still persists that this year?s Bolts
aren?t as good as last year?s version, despite their notable current 7-game win
and cover streak.

Indy, sturdier defensively than it was a year ago, and undoubtedly primed after
the fiasco at Qualcomm in November, should gain its revenge...and then some.
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Indy 21...I.25-11 S.24/91 I.26/75 I.34/56/6/311 S.13/24/2/86 S.1 I.1)
(07-SAN DIEGO +3' 23-21...SR: San Diego 14-9)

NY GIANTS (11-6) at DALLAS (13-3)

Sunday, January 13, 2008

TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

NY Giants 11-611-6 23 2113219647-16-25 96 20843-13-25 -6 .1 5.9
Dallas 13-3 9-7 28 2010925654-14-36 95 21336-12-19 5 2.3 6.1

DALLAS 30 - N.Y. Giants 27?There are a couple of different ways to
interpret the meaning of multiple regular-season meetings between playoff
foes?especially when there was a lot of similarity between the first two
matchups. Can we expect a repeat of the first two results? Or will the third time
finally prove the charm for the vanquished regular-season side?

Both meetings TY ended up as Dallas wins by nearly-identical margins (45-35
& 31-20), with the dynamics of each matchup quite similar as well. The
Cowboys were able to get their big-play offense in gear, especially thru the air,
with Tony Romo passing for 4 TDs in both games. Terrell Owens caught a pair
of scores in each, and indeed 8 of Dallas? 10 TDs were on plays of 15 yards or
longer. On the other side, Eli Manning had his moments, including 4 TD passes in
the opener, but his two picks in the Nov. 11 rematch at the Meadowlands proved
costly. Moreover, the Giants? renowned pass rush had little impact in either game,
recording only 3 sacks combined in the two tussles. Given time to throw,
Romo was able to make the game-changing plays to break each game open.

However, it?s worth noting that the Giants were hanging close in both of
those battles until the late going, cutting Dallas? lead to 3 deep in the 4th Q before
Romo and Sam Hurd hooked up on a 51-yarder to put the first game away, and
within 24-20 in the rematch until Romo connected on a late 50-yard strike to T.O.
But this time, we wouldn?t count on Romo extending the margin out of New
York?s reach with another long, late TD pass.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA KEY RELEASES
*****KEY RELEASES *****
ORLANDO by 5 over Utah (Saturday, January 12)
CHICAGO by 6 over Orlando (Tuesday, January 15)
GOLDEN STATE by 17 over Minnesota (Tuesday, January 15)


****************************************

LA Lakers 109 - MEMPHIS 98?Memphis covered last 3 meetings vs. L.A.
last season, but Grizzlies have covered just 2 of last 9 at FedEx Forum.
Meanwhile, Lake Show in high gear (11-4 last 15 vs. line) thanks in large part
to rapid development of C Andrew Bynum, who?s supported Kobe Bryant by
chipping in 17 ppg & pulling down 11 rpg in his last 11 games, including a 23 pt.,
13-reb. effort Sunday facing Jermaine O?Neal of the Pacers. Grizzlies have
dropped 4 of last 5 as a home dog, and Memphis defensive specialist Rudy
Gay will have his hands full after holding Bryant to just 7-for-26 shooting in
last season?s final game (a shocking Memphis upset at Staples Center). 06-LA 9
91-81 (187), MEM +3 128-118 (226), La -5 121-119 (213), Mem +12' 88-86 (219)

MINNESOTA 100 - Miami 95?The lasting memory of Miami?s ugly 91-87
win over Minnesota Dec. 17 won?t be the anemic shooting displays of both
teams (Heat 39% from floor, T-wolves 37%). Rather, it will likely be that it
featured the final healthy appearance of Alonzo Mourning?s career before
devastating knee injury two nights later, as he and Udonis Haslem sparked late
Miami rally. Heat couldn?t cover that one, however, which is a recurring theme
for Miami lately, as a 2-11 spread mark last 13 would indicate. With Shaquille
O?Neal injured again (flew to Los Angeles for treatment on his hip), and
Dwyane Wade limited with his own physical ailments (played just 29 mins. off
the bench at Memphis Sunday, shooting just 7-for-20), can?t trust lottery-
bound Heat. 07-MIA -9 91-87 (193); 06-MIA -6 105-91 (182), Mia -1 92-77 (184)

CHICAGO 104 - New York 97?Teams split first two, New York covering
both, before Dec. 30 matchup at MSG won by the Bulls. Jim Boylan trying to
shake things up in Chicago since replacing Scott Skiles as HC on Xmas Eve.
Ben Gordon loving his new/old role as sixth man, as he?s averaged 28 ppg in
six games coming off the bench since Boylan took over. NY backcourt was
minus both Jamal Crawford (injury) and Stephon Marbury (personal) in first
meeting. Crawford and Marbury are back, but Crawford has made only 15 of
37 shots since returning, and Marbury is hardly the factor he once was. More
salient to this game is the fact that Bull forward Luol Deng (18 ppg, 7 rpg) has
a strained Achilles? tendon and has been downgraded to doubtful. Deng
scored 23 ppg & shot 58% in first 2 games of series this season, and Deng
would match up against Zach Randolph (18 ppg & team-leading 10 rpg). 07NY
+2' 85-78 (186), CHI -10 101-96 (186), Chi -2' 100-83 (190); 06-Chi -2 10695
(200), CHI -7 102-85 (199), NY +5' 103-92 (196), CHI -13' 98-69 (189)

UTAH 109 - Indiana 95?Let?s see if Utah is up for payback after absorbing
20-point thumping at Indiana Nov. 17. Pacers hit 61% from floor in sizzling 1st
half to assume 19-point halftime lead it never relinquished, ending up hitting
58% of its FGs. Struggling Jazz have covered only 5 of last 18 on board,
although they are 3-2 vs. the number in their last 5 at home (11-2 SU last 13 as
well). Indiana has?t been much better the last few weeks, dropping 6 of last
7 SU and against the points, as Jermaine O?Neal is having his least productive
season in the last 7 years and Danny Granger?s inconsistency has kept him
from taking over the ?lead dog? role completely. Another problem for the
Pacers has been injury to point guard Jamal Tinsley, whose hamstring injury
has kept him out of action since he hurt himself against Detroit Dec. 28. 07IND
+5 117-97 (204); 06-Utah +2 104-94 (195), UTAH -11 94-72 (198)

Orlando 105 - SACRAMENTO 92?Orlando really has been ?magic? on
road this season, covering 16 of first 20 (including 6-2 as visiting chalk).
Meanwhile, it?s been a tale of two seasons at home for injury-riddled
Sacramento, which covered 9 of its first 10 at Arco Arena, but has lost 6 in a
row since. Absence of Ron Artest (elbow surgery) and Kevin Martin (groin)
has crippled the Kings, who?ve lost 6 of last 7 SU. Those two combined for 44
ppg! That type of production is difficult to replace for any team. 06-Orl +5 9289
(194), Sac +5' 95-83 (201)

THURSDAY, JANUARY 10

Detroit 97 - SAN ANTONIO 94?These two met for NBA title three seasons
ago, and S.A. continued to hold spell over Detroit last season when beating
Detroit twice (though failing to cover 1-point win at AT&T Center). But Pistons
look ready to finally gain some long overdue revenge based on their recent
uptick (18-3 vs. the number last 21 prior to visiting Dallas last night). Pistons are
4-1 on the road in 2nd night of back-to-back games. Spurs have had a number of
health issues this season, and Tim Duncan is again not 100% after being
forced to leave the Clipper game on Sunday with a sore knee. He?ll likely be
ready to go for this TNT TV game, but he?s also had an problem with his wrist
& hand, and how long he can go might be an issue. 06-Sa +3' 90-81 (181), SA
-6 90-89 (175) TV?TNT

SACRAMENTO 87 -Memphis 86??Totals? alert?these two each
trending ?under? lately, with Sacto ?under? 10-5 its last 15 prior to facing
Orlando Tuesday night, and Memphis a surprising 10-6 ?under? on road. This
isn?t surprising for the Kings, as injuries have left them without their two
leading scorers, Kevin Martin and Ron Artest, and Mike Bibby, who was
their third leading scorer last season, hasn?t played yet due to injuries.
Kings had dropped 6 straight spread decisions at home before playing
Orlando at Arco Tuesday. 06-SAC -8' 115-111 (178), MEM +1 124-117
(221), Sac -3 112-100 (220)

Phoenix 104 - UTAH 102?It wasn?t pretty, with Phoenix hitting only 23.5%
beyond arc and scoring seven points fewer than its league-best average, not
to mention Steve Nash chipping a tooth after colliding with Carlos Boozer, but
Suns prevailed by 5 (with no cover) Dec. 12 against slumping Utah, which lost
its 6th straight of debilitating 7-game losing streak that night. Jazz still fighting
to get out of extended funk, covering just 5 of last 18 before Indiana came to
town on Tuesday. Phoenix is coming off a game last night at home against
Indiana, but on balance, playing the second of back-to-back games hasn?t
been a major problem for the Suns (3-4 vs. number). 07-PHO -7' 103-98 (226);
06-Utah +7 108-104 (211), UTAH -4' 120-117 (OT-212), Utah +11' 108-105
(218), Pho -3 126-98 (211) CABLE TV?TNT

 

[the duke]

PONTWISE



SEATTLE (11-6) at GREEN BAY (13-3)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12 -- 4:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
LINE: GREEN BAY BY 8 -- O/U: 40

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Seattle ......... 43.1 . 25- 18 .. 20-18 .. 100-101 .. 247- 221 .. +10 . Green Bay
Green Bay... 44.1 . 27- 18 .. 19-19 .. 100-103 .. 271- 210 .. + 4 . by 6.3 Pts
Mike Holmgren now has 13 playoff wins, & takes on his old squad. Sure, they've
met since he took over the Seahawks in '99, but never in the playoffs. Seattle was
not at its best in win over Washington (14 FDs), with Hasselbeck only 1/2, after a
28/12 regular season. And Alexander at just 3.5 ypr. The Pack has won 17-of-20
on the field, covering 19-of-25, & clicking at 33.2 ppg in their last 7 meaningful
games. They've ridden Grant (5.1 ypr) in rising 11 spots in overland production, &
of course, there is Brett (28 TD passes), & seemingly another NFL record each
wk. The SU winner is a combined 31-0-2 ATS when these 2 take the field. Pack!
PROPHECY:

GREEN BAY 31 - Seattle 20 RATING: 5


JACKSONVILLE (12-5) at NEW ENGLAND (16-0)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12 -- 8:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: NEW ENGLAND BY 12 -- O/U: 48

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Jacksonville 45.9 . 26- 20 .. 20-18 .. 149- 97 .. 202- 218 .. +11 . Nw England
Nw England 45.5 . 37- 17 .. 25-17 .. 116- 98 .. 296- 190 .. +16 . by 17.5 Pts
Well the smoking Jags (4.7-1.7 ypr edge LW) nearly let it get away from them at
Pittsburgh, blowing all of a 28-10 lead, before a brilliant run by Garrard bailed them
out. But he also threw 2 picks, after an awesome 18/3 for the regular season.
J'Ville is averaging 30.5 ppg in its last 11 outings, is on a 7-1 spread run, & has set
a team record with 54 TDs. But the Pats are the standard, with their perfect 16-0
slate, averaging 41.4 ppg in their first 8 (+117 pts ATS), but only 32.3 ppg in their
last 8 (-49 pts ATS). Brady: 50/8 & >4,800 yds; Moss: 23 TDs. Jags were stung
for nearly 300 PYs by Roethlisberger, so Brady should do his thing. Pats the play.
PROPHECY:

NEW ENGLAND 34 - Jacksonville 17 RATING: 3



SAN DIEGO (12-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (13-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS BY 8? -- O/U: 46?

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
San Diego ... 45.2 . 25- 17 .. 17-18 .. 124-108 .. 193- 208 .. +25 . Indianapolis
Indianapolis 45.7 . 28- 16 .. 22-16 .. 107-107 .. 252- 173 .. +18 . by 8.2 Pts
Red-hot Chargers have covered 7 straight, by 67 pts, but by mere ? pt LW. But,
as we stated a week ago, they are hardly overpowering, ranking 14th or
worse in 5-of-6 major yardage categories. Rivers: just 22/16 for the year;
Tomlinson: 2.0 ypr vs Tennessee; & Gates: toe injury. Two months ago,
SanDiego caught Indy off its grueling loss to the Pats, winning 23-21, with
Vinatieri missing a 29-yd FG in the final 2 minutes, & Manning throwing a
franchise record 6 interceptions! The Colts are 18-2 SU in meaningful
games lately, & 13-4 ATS vs non-division. SU winner 17-0 ATS in SD tilts.
PROPHECY:

INDIANAPOLIS 33 - San Diego 17 RATING: 2



NEW YORK GIANTS (11-6) at DALLAS (13-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 4:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
LINE: DALLAS BY 7? -- O/U: 47

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
NY Giants ... 46.3 . 23- 21 .. 20-21 .. 132- 96 .. 196- 207 ... - 6 . Dallas
Dallas .......... 45.6 . 28- 20 .. 20-19 .. 109- 95 .. 257- 213 .. + 5 . by 8.0 Pts
These 2 division rivals meet for the umpteenth time, but this is their first-ever
meeting in a playoff setting. The Giants have been superb of late, winning 11 of
their last 15 games, but more importantly are on franchise-record run of 8 straight
road wins, allowing only 13.4 ppg in their last 7 RGs. Their 24 unanswered pts at
Tampa opened many an eye, as the Bucs were a superb home play. The 'Boys are
13-2 SU in meaningful games lately, with Romo at 36/19. And Owens (15 TDs in
15 games) is expected to play (ankle). But Dallas is just 5-7 ATS lately, & certainly
not as impressive as in the early going. Third win of the year over NY, but by a hair.
PROPHECY:

Dallas 24 - NEW YORK GIANTS 23 RATING: 4

 

[the duke]

Powersweep


The Patriots beat JAX 24-21 LY as a 3 pt AD in late Dec. NE had a 10-7 halftime lead & both had a
pair of 60+ yd TD drives in the 2H. With 1:46 left Garrard was sk?d & fmbl?d & NE held on for the win. NE
had 22-12 FD & 359-309 yd edges in the game. NE is 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS vs teams with a winning record
while JAX is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. NE has 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with a 415-294 yd edge & 35-15 avg
score. JAX is 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS on the road TY with a 339-327 yd edge and 25-24 avg score. There are
4 common foes (SD, BUF, IND & PIT) with NE going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS while JAX is 4-2 SU & ATS. JAX
doesn?t have any Pro Bowlers while NE has 8 & Brady was voted 2007?s NFL MVP. Belichick is 12-2 SU &
8-5-1 ATS with NE in the playoffs including 3 Super Bowl wins while Del Rio is 1-1 SU & ATS in the playoffs
including a 28-3 loss to NE in the ?05 WC game as a 7 pt AD. Del Rio started a rusty Leftwich coming back
from inj & NE blizted him ruthlessly with Garrard only seeing time when the game was out of reach.
The Jags surprised the NFL by cutting Byron Leftwich just before season started & going with David
Garrard. Garrard has been very efficient (19-5 ratio) & didn?t throw his 1st int until the 2nd IND game.
He is a good fit in OC Dirk Koetter?s offense & after scoring 24 or more points only 19 times in Del Rio?s
first 4 years JAX has hit the number 11 times TY. Since his return from an ankle injury in mid-Nov, JAX
is avg an NFL best 34 ppg (NE 29.7). The Jags are actually a more balanced offense than LY & Fred
Taylor has avg?d 120 ypg (7.7) in his L5 games. JAX doesn?t have standout talent at the WR spot but
Reggie Williams is becoming a quality scoring threat with 10 TD?s & Northcutt is one of the better slot
WR. JAX OL has started the L8 games together is 15th in the NFL in sacks as Garrard is being sacked
once every 15.5 pass att?s. The Jags #12 defense has always had a reputation of being physical & is only
allowing 88 ypg (3.9) rushing on the year if the season opener vs TEN is omitted. While they did lose DT
Stroud (ankle) they picked up Grady Jackson after he was cut by ATL & he has been a very good next
to John Henderson. JAX could get MLB Peterson back here from a broken hand but WLB Daryl Smith
has done an excellent job in his place. JAX #15 pass defense is headed by Rashean Mathis who is a
lockdown CB & rookie FS Reggie Nelson leads the team with 5 int. The Jaguars have our #20 special
teams unit despite holding teams to just 7.8 ypc on PR & 19.7 ypc on KR.
NE set the NFL record for most points scored (589), TD passes (50) & TD rec in a season (Moss 23).
TY?s #1 offense is largely a Run & Shoot style that maximizes the talent at the WR position. Brady finished
1st in the NFL win comp % (68.9), yards (4806), ypa (8.31), & QBR (117.2). He has TD/int ratio of 50-8 &
really only struggled twice TY (1H vs BAL & 2H vs MIA). Previously NE had spread the ball around but TY
only NE?s top 4 WR?s caught passes & Wes Welker wound up tied for the NFL lead in rec?s (112). Donte?
Stallworth started strong but only had 20 rec & 0 TD?s in the 2H of the season while Jabar Gaffney had 24 of
36 rec in the 2H of the season. TE Ben Watson has been slowed by an ankle injury but should be fine here
& Kyle Brady has been dominant as a run blocking TE. Laurence Maroney missed 3 of the first 13 games
with a groin injury & only avg?d 53 ypg (4.2) in that span. The OL only allowed 8 sacks in the first 8 games &
13 over the final 13 games & the OL started 69 of 80 games together. NE has the #2 & #4 units on 3rd Dn
with the #2 red-zone offense but #27 red-zone defense. The #4 defense has its issues vs the run with six
100 yd rushing games allowed (144 ypg 4.8) with some alarming rushing totals vs MIA, BAL & PIT. While
NT Vince Wilfork was outstanding, DE Richard Seymour was slow to recover after being on the PUP for the
first 6 games & Ty Warren had a down year. Adalius Thomas is a better fit as an OLB while Mike Vrabel had
a career year with 12.5 sacks. Tedy Bruschi was once again solid vs the run & Junior Seau was serviceable.
Asante Samuel?s dominance had teams going after Ellis Hobbs who did a good job overall. SS Rodney
Harrison has lost a step but his leadership makes the overall NE defense better & is one of Belichick?s most
trusted players. NE has our #19 spec teams unit largely due to Chris Hanson?s 36.1 net avg (24th).
While NE has looked mortal the past few games they dominated playoff teams at home with a 30
ppg margin. The Jaguars make their 2nd long trip to the Northeast & while they are known as a tough &
physical defense they have allowed 25 ppg their L7 road games. DT Henderson strained his hamstring
LW & is ?. No coach game plans better than Belichick with extra rest & he?ll have the Patriots back to
early season form with a dominating win.
FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 38 Jacksonville 17 RATING: 2★

The Chargers escaped with a win vs IND in the prior meeting 23-20 as a 3.5 pt HD. Manning had one
of the worst games ever as he tossed a career high 5 int on a soggy SNF game. He managed to rally IND
from a 23-7 4Q deficit with a 7 yd TD pass to make it 23-15. Rivers had a ball slip out of his hands & IND
recovered & ret it for a TD (2 pt ng). IND drove to the SD 11 with 94 sec left only to see Vinatieri miss a 29
yd FG. IND forced SD to go 3 & out but Manning was int?d on the final play. Rivers only passed for 104 yds
(54%) with 2 ints while Tomlinson was held to 76 yds rushing (3.6). IND is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with a
349-322 yd edge & 27-18 avg score. SD is 4-4 SU & ATS on the road being outgained 346-324 with an avg
score of 24-22. IND is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs teams with a winning record with an avg score of 23-20 (no SD).
SD is 2-3 SU & ATS vs teams with a winning record being outscored 23-19 (no IND). Their are 8 common
foes with IND going 9-2 SU & 5-6 ATS with a 340-299 yd edge (+16 TO?s) with a 27-18 avg score. SD went
9-3 SU & ATS with a 329-294 yd edge (+15 TO?s) & 25-16 avg score. IND has 5 Pro Bowlers with 4 on off
& Bob Sanders on def. SD has 4 on off, 3 on def & a ST representative. Dungy is 6-2 ATS as a playoff fav
while Turner is just 1-1 ATS as a playoff HC but has experience as an assistant.
By the time Norv Turner took over SD had to replace their top 5 coaches from LY. SD struggled the 1st 8
games going 4-4 SU & ATS with a humiliating loss to MIN. Thru the 1st 8 games SD was outgained by an avg of
355-308 (+8 TO?s) with an avg score of 24-21. After the IND game SD regrouped & put the onus on Tomlinson &
SD posted a 342-271 yd edge (+13 TO?s) with an avg score of 29-14. SD has outrushed foes 149 (4.4) to 91 (3.6)
over that span as well. TE Gates (check status) remains the top target for Rivers though trading for WR Chambers
from MIA gives them a proven #1 WR & Tomlinson is still a reliable weapon out of the backfield. SD?s OL doesn?t
have the continuity of LY?s unit as Ctr Hardwick missed 4 games & Turner tinkered with the RT spot but they have
started the L5 games together & Rivers has been sacked 22 times. SD released 2 starting LB?s in the offseason
but was able to rely on one of the best 3-4 DL?s in the NFL headed up by NT Jamal Williams. Minus the MIN game
SD only allowed 90 ypg (3.6) on the year with six 100 yd games (127 ypg 4.0 in those). The OLB tandem of Phillips
& Merriman combined for 20 of the 42 sk & ILB?s Cooper & Wilhelm do a decent job in the middle. SD?s #5 pass
rush is a huge weapon for their secondary which is better than their #13 pass D ranking as they lead the NFL with
30 int. #3 CB Cromartie has 10 int on the year & CB Jammer has developed into a shutdown CB. SD has our #3
ST unit with P Scifres having a 39.6 net avg & SD is 5th in KR coverage (20.9) & 6th in KR (25.5).
Despite his 8th 4000 yd season in 9 years Peyton Manning has had a bit of a down season as he has struggled
with Marvin Harrision (swollen knee) out for 10 games. Manning had his 1st season with more than 10 ints in 5 years
but IND finished with the #5 off. With Harrison out, Reggie Wayne had a career year finishing 3rd in rec?s & 1st in rec
yards in the NFL. Manning?s relied on Wayne so much that the combo of Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai & Anthony Gonzalez
combined only had 32 more rec & 46 more yards. While Joseph Addai became the 3rd Colts RB to start his career with
B2B 1000 yd rushing seasons he only has four 100 yd rushing games & has avg?d 46 ypg rushing (3.2) over the final 8.
IND OL has only started 69 games together as RT Diem has missed 6 with a knee inj & LT Ugoh has sat out 5 games
with neck & ankle inj?s. IND has all?d 23 sacks TY (7th) & has the #1 & #30 units on 3rd Dn as well as the #10 & #21
red-zone units. The Colts used to be all offense with no defense until Dungy finally got the players he needed to make
his Tampa-2 defense run. They finished 3rd in the NFL on total defense as they survived the loss of DE Dwight Freeney
thanks to Bob Sanders who at 5?8? 204 is used as an extra LB but he has the speed of a CB & is extremely smooth
in coverage. He has been instrumental in the development of CB?S Kelvin Hayden & Marlin Jackson allowing Antoine
Bethea to be the single high safety. MLB Gary Brackett is the only LB to start all 16 games & Freddie Keiaho has done
a good job replacing June despite missing 5 games with an elbow inj. The DL took a major blow when Freeney landed
on IR & IND has all?d nine 100+ yd rushing games (137 ypg 4.3). Despite the lack of a pass rush (26th) IND has the
#4 pass D over the L8W all?ng 171 ypg (65%) with a 9-11 ratio. The Colts special teams are a major concern as they
have our #32 unit all?g 13.9 on PR?s & 25.0 on KR?s with 4 returns for TD?s combined.
The Chargers rebounded after a flat 1H to advance & Rivers makes his 2nd ever dome start (1st vs
MIN TY) in possibly the final game at the RCA Dome. SD has struggled on the road with a 1-3 SU record vs
playoff teams with the win vs TEN in OT. Tomlinson avg?s 21 ypg (1.1) less on the road TY vs at home with
half the rushing TD?s (5). The Colts went to San Diego and held the Chargers to 91 yards rushing and they
kept 4 of their next 8 foes from 100 yds rushing with a 3.5 ypc. The Chargers reached their goal of a playoff
win & now face a defending SB champ with an early morning kickoff.
FORECAST: COLTS 34 Chargers 14 RATING: 2★

This is the 3rd year in a row the Packers & Seahawks have met & the home team has won 2 straight.
This is the 2nd playoff meeting with GB beating SEA 33-27 in OT as a 7.5 pt HF in 2003. Hasselbeck made
the famous ?we?ll take the ball & score? comment after winning the coin toss only to see GB return an int for
a TD for the win. LY SEA beat GB 34-24 as a 10 pt HF on MNF. GB went up 21-12 early in the 2H but SEA
had B2B TD drives of 62 & 77 yds & GB hit a 34 yd FG. Favre turned the ball over on each of GB?s final 3
drives. SEA has only had 2 winning seasons on the road in their 32 year history going 3-5 SU & ATS TY. GB
reestablished itself at Lambeau with a 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS record. GB has the #8 & #7 home units (+6 TO?s)
vs SEA?s #18 & #21 road units (+1 TO?s). There are 4 common reg season foes (STL, CHI, PHI & CAR) with
GB going 3-2 SU & ATS being outgained 311-305 with a 21.4-21 avg score. SEA is 4-1 SU & ATS with a
327-313 yd edge & 25-17 avg score. SEA has faced 3 teams with a winning record in the reg season (1-2
SU & ATS) & has our #32 sked. GB has our #22 sked & is 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. While this is McCarthy?s 1st
playoff game as a HC he is on a 17-3 SU & 15-4-1 ATS run. Holmgren has vastly more playoff exp but is
6-5-1 ATS on the playoff road. SEA overall is 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs including SB 40.
Brett Favre has continued to refine his game & GB has the #2 offense & a 13-3 record to show for it.
Favre has posted 10 games with a QBR of 100+ TY & has matured along with his skill position players as
he is letting them make plays instead of forcing the ball. He has snapped up the NFL?s career passing TD?s,
yards & int records. GB traded a 6th RD DC to NYG for RB Ryan Grant who has rushed for 93 ypg (5.1) since
becoming the official starter with five 100 yd rushing games. GB had the #32 rush off over the first 8 weeks
& finished #7 over the L8W. The receiving corps is what makes the Packers so dangerous as 4 players have
47 or more rec?s with Donald Driver being the top option, Greg Jennings being the deep threat (17.4 ypc, 3rd
best), Donald Lee developing into a starting TE & James Jones as the slot WR. Despite only all?g 19 sacks
(3rd) GB has started 7 different OL combos as HC McCarthy hasn?t been satisfied with the OG play. GB is 8th
& 3rd on 3rd Dns with the #14 off & #8 def in the red-zone. The Packers? #11 D is very well balanced all-around
& DE Aaron Kampman quietly had another solid season with 12 sacks (15.5 LY). GB rotates in DE?s Cullen
******* for rush defense & KGB (9.5 sacks) in pass situations. The Pack has all?d seven 100 yd rushing games
(134 ypg, 4.4) but has only pulled in 4 sacks over the L5 games. GB?s LB unit is very underrated as Barnett
& Hawk are at a PB level & Poppinga is one of the better SLB?s. Their #12 pass D is headed by Al Harris &
Charles Woodson who give the team one of the best CB tandems in the NFL. GB came into the year with our
#32 spec teams unit but finished 8th as their coverage units are only allowing 5.9 on PR?s & 20.9 on KR?s.
It?s not often that a team wins its 4th straight div title & is regarded as flying under the radar but that?s what
SEA has done TY. The Seahawks offense underwent a major shift after the CLE game as broken ribs & a left
wrist inj slowed RB Alexander down to 62 ypg (3.3) over the first 8 & while SEA avg 338 ypg & 21 ppg they were
only 4-4 (3-5 ATS). Afterward Holmgren put the ball into Hasselbeck?s & his now-healthy WR corps? hands &
while they only gained 361 ypg (28 ppg), they went 6-2 SU & ATS. Hasselbeck has passed for 243 ypg (64%)
with a 15-5 ratio (94.0 QBR) in the L8W making the Pro Bowl with WR Engram having a career year. Holmgren
is running 4-WR sets with Branch being the speed threat & Burleson going over the middle with Hackett working
the slot. SEA?s OL started the first 15 games together with LT Jones being rested vs ATL. SEA made a pair of
great pickups by acquiring DE Kerney (14.5) who is 2007?s NFC sack king to bolster the DL & Jim Mora Jr to
coach the DB?s & be Holmgren?s eventual successor. CB Trufant became a complete CB & is off to his first Pro
Bowl but the LB unit is the backbone of the SEA defense. Pro Bowl LB?s Tatupu & Peterson are an outstanding
tandem & SLB Hill is very underrated. SEA?s #22 pass defense is highly underrated allowing 59% with a 17-22
ratio. SEA is 13th in our special teams rankings & K Josh Brown has a solid rep as a game winner.
LW SEA caught a Redskins team on a 5 day turnaround that traveled cross country to a very hostile
environment. Now SEA has to go to GB which is their 5th road game in 8 weeks. GB held foes to 9 ppg
in its L4 HG?s & a windy day at Lambeau could be a problem for a pass heavy visitor. GB has won its L5
games by an avg of 20 ppg covering each. SEA has only beaten 1 playoff team in the reg season TY &
that was TB at home in the opener. GB is 12-3-1 ATS TY & advances to the next round with a win here.
FORECAST: GREEN BAY 31 SEATTLE 14 RATING: 3★

Dallas won & covered both games vs the Giants TY with a 45-35 shootout in the opener as a 6 pt HF
& 31-20 as a 1.5 pt AF. Despite both losses Manning played well avg 274 ypg (68%) with a 5-3 ratio (94.8
QBR). Romo was outstanding avg 296 yds (67%) with an 8-2 ratio (129.2 QBR) & a ypa of 11.4. DAL is
6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home TY with the #4 & #11 units at home (-1 TO?s). The Giants are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS
on the road TY. LW after going 3 & out on their 1st 3 drives they outgained the Bucs 275-195 & converted
3 TB TO?s into 7 points. Against their 10 common foes DAL went 9-2 SU & 6-5 ATS (minus finale as DAL
rested) with a 363-312 yd edge (+4 TO?s) & a 29-20 avg score. NY went 8-4 SU & ATS with a 316-295 yd
edge (-10 TO?s) & a 21.2-21 avg score. The Giants only have one Pro Bowl player in Umenyiora while DAL
has a whopping 11 PB?s. Coughlin is now 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS in the playoffs while Phillips is 0-3 SU & ATS.
The Giants playoff push was spearheaded by their #8 D which is fortified by a #1 pass rush headed by
a 3 DE rotation of Umenyiora, Strahan & Tuck. The pass rush has masked some issues in the back 7 with
the loss of DE/OLB Kiwanuka & MLB Pierce playing hurt all yr & starting rookie CB Ross. WLB Mitchell was
rested vs NE & his status is unknown. While the Giants are all?g 96 ypg rushing (3.8), they have 9 gms with
100+ yds rushing all?d for 124 ypg (4.6) avg in those. With the loss of RB Barber even more pressure fell on
Eli Manning who started the season passing for 218 ypg (60%) with a 13-9 ratio in the 1st 7 games. Skipping
the MIA game Manning had passed for 214 ypg (52%) with a 6-10 ratio (62.2 QBR) before his impressive
game of 251 yds (69%) with a 4-1 ratio vs NE. He had been limited by poor weather conditions, Burress? bad
ankle, a shaky RB rotation with Jacobs (knee sprain & hamstring) missing 5 games & the loss of TE Shockey
(broken leg). WR Toomer rebounded from LY?s torn ACL to be the #3 receiver & the OL has done a decent
job of protecting him with 29 sacks all?d (12th) & has started all 17 games. However, Ctr O?Hara sustained
a knee injury vs NE & his status is ?. Jacobs has five 100 yd rushing games as a power runner & the team
avg?s 134 ypg rushing (4.5) which is 1 yd & 0.1 ypc less than LY?s numbers with Barber. The Giants have our
#23 spec teams unit as their return units are avg at best with 8.7 PR & 20.1 KR avg?s.
Bill Parcells built this version of the Cowboys but Wade Phillips has managed to get the most out of it &
thanks to OC Garrett the most out of Tony Romo. Romo heads up the #4 passing off & broke several team
records incl passing yards, comp % & TD?s. He finished the year 2nd in passing TD?s & ypa to Brady with
the highest QBR for an NFC QB. He has a great chemstry with Terrell Owens who is 5th in rec yards & 4th
in ypc but will be a gametime decision (ankle). The top receiver for the Cowboys is TE Witten who is 10th
in the NFL & 2nd only to Tony Gonzalez in rec?s. DAL anticipates having Terry Glenn back for this game but
he?ll be limited in snaps & Patrick Crayton has done a good job as the #3 receiving option. DAL is only 17th
in rush & the clear cut #1 RB here is Marion Barber who?s 21st in rushing & 12th in ypc. Julius Jones is now
the 3rd Dn back & the 2 combined have three 100 yd rushing games. LY the DAL OL all?d 37 sacks & they
improved to 25 TY with the same starters for the 1st 14 games until Ctr Gurode missed the L2 with a knee
inj. DAL is 2nd & 27th on 3rd Dns with the #15 & #10 red-zone units. Under Parcells LY DAL finished with the
#13 D but the players didn?t quite fit the scheme. DAL improved to 9th on def & 3rd in sacks (46) vs 19th LY
as Phillips is more aggressive. Not counting the season finale DAL has all?d six 100 yd rushing games (129
ypg, 5.0) with 68 ypg (3.2) in the others. The strength of the Cowboys def is its LB corps with Greg Ellis who
had a great year after tearing his Achillies LY & DeMarcus Ware combining for 26.5 sacks & Bradie James
& Akin Ayodele being the ILB?s. DAL has the #14 pass defense & is all?g 237 ypg (57%) with a 13-6 ratio at
home. Both Terence Newman & FS Ken Hamlin made the Pro Bowl while Anthony Henry led the team with
6 int but Roy Williams can still be burned for big plays in the passing game. DAL has our #15 special teams
unit as they are below avg in coverage units (11.6 PR & 23.0 KR) & are 19th in KR?s with a 22.3 avg.
The Giants have now won 8 straight on the road since an opening week loss at DAL. Their defense gets
the credit for the win streak allowing 14 ppg in that span. DAL has dropped 4 straight ATS & in their 2 SU
losses only scored 6 pts in each. DAL did rest players vs WAS but an offensive team needs 1.5 quarters to
get its timing back. While both games went Over the total this meeting gives an edge to the DC?s as they?ll
be familiar with the opposing QB?s. The early forecast calls for rain & wind which adds to Under call here.
FORECAST: UNDER 48 RATING:

 

[GIANTS007]

THE MAX


NFL Divisional Round
Seahawks @Packers
January 12th, 2007, 4:30PM EST
Line: Packers ?8, 40
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
What the Packers have done this season is pretty
amazing. Many questioned Brett Favre?s decision to
return this season, as his play had fallen off in
recent years and there weren?t many (any?)
personnel analysts who thought the Packers were
poised for a big year. In fact, the Packers have the
youngest team in the NFL this season, with a roster
that entered the season littered with unproven
players. But the leadership of Favre and the
emergence of a running game contributed to a fine
season for the Packers. The defense chipped in as
well. With Charles Woodson and Al Harris manning
the CB slots, the Packers have a very sound pass
defense. An easy division (Bears and Lions
disappointed, Vikings were hot late but not when
they played the Packers) helped Green Bay. It is
worth noting however, that in the first six weeks of
the campaign, the Pack defeated three eventual
playoff teams. The only playoff team the Seahawks
beat was the Bucs in their opener at home. Green
Bay benefited from the weak division and weak
conference, but they are well-coached, have
excellent leadership, and truly are a team that is
better than the sum of their parts.
Interestingly, these defenses are almost identical,
both in the top third of the league, both giving up
18.2 points per game, both allowing 5 yards per
play, though as we noted on the front page that is
something of a mixed blessing. The Seahawks
defense really came up big, huge actually, when
their offense and special teams tried to give the
game away. The D held Washington to a FG
attempt (which they missed) after not fielding the
kickoff after falling behind 14-13. Then after what
appeared to be a killer Hasselbeck interception, they
gave up only 6 yards of field position. Then the
interception return on the miscommunication
between Collins and Moss put the game away. This
is an experienced defense, manned by key players
who were part of the Super Bowl run two years ago.
While you have to respect the Packers and what
they?ve accomplished, their home field edge is
lessened here by the Seattle players and coaches
with ties to Green Bay. As a 7?-point playoff dog
they took the Pack to overtime at this site four years
ago. With both clubs somewhat unproven, we?ll
take a gander at the veteran team getting significant
points from a team full of playoff upstarts to keep
this one close. Packers by 3.



Jaguars @ Patriots
January 12th, 2007, 8:00PM EST
Line: Patriots ?13, 48
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Jags are playing terrific football right now. That was
a nice win they got up in Pittsburgh, their second
win in three weeks in a very difficult place to win.
But they?re in pretty deep here, going against a
team that remarkably zipped through the entire
season undefeated, set oodles of offensive records,
and whose defense ranks 4th in the league rankings
(based on raw yardage), allowing 288 yards per
game. The age of the Patriots defense is a
concern, and you remember how slow they looked
in their playoff game against the Colts last year, but
the club was riddled by a flu bug at the time.
Obviously this is a very legit club with few flaws.
People still don?t seem to realize that Jacksonville
has a much more lively offense than they are given
credit for. Since David Garrard returned from injury
the Jags have scored 24 points or more in each of
the 9 games. That?s a pretty impressive for a team
that is widely described as being built around
defense and the running game. Garrard had only 3
interceptions all season long but tossed a pair in
Pittsburgh. The Jaguars concerns include the health
of their defensive line. DT John Henderson was
knocked out of the Steelers game with a hamstring
injury. He tried to come back but didn?t last. His
replacement, Grady Jackson, cut by the Falcons in
mid-season and pushing 400 pounds, is not an
every-down guy right now. Outstanding DT Marcus
Stroud is already out for the year with injury. The
Jags received some ?silver platter? points in their
playoff win, scoring on a 1-yard drive after a long
Maurice Jones-Drew kickoff return and scoring on a
63-yard interception return. But those were plays
they made, and the 340-239 yardage advantage of
the Steelers had a lot to do with the shape of the
game, with the Jaguars needing only a single yard
to score 14 points the ball kept going back to the
Steelers, who eventually ended up throwing caution
to the wind and opening up their offense to come
back from the deficit. So while Jacksonville
shouldn?t be downgraded for the 101-yard edge for
Pittsburgh, it is worth noting that it wasn?t a
dominant performance.
This veteran Patriots team knows how to come out
firing in Foxborough in the postseason. They are 6-
0 under Belichick in home playoff games, with the
last four being the covers (starting with the most
recent, covers by 12, 16?, 17, and 7.) Think very
highly of both ballclubs and this line seems high.
But New England, rested for this one, has a history
of taking no prisoners in home playoff games, so
we?ll pass for now.




Chargers @ Colts
January 13th, 2007, 1:00PM EST
Line: Colts ?8?, 46?
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
The defending Super Bowl Champion Colts have played
second fiddle to the New England Patriots all season,
quietly putting together a 13-3 season despite numerous
injuries and the proverbial ?bull?s eye? on their backs.
Many starters sat out or rested a large portion of the
season finale against Tennessee two weeks ago, and with
the way the schedules fell for both teams down the
stretch, Indy knew they were most likely playing the
Chargers or Titans. Not only do they play the Titans twice
a year, and are familiar with everything they do, but the
current form of both possible opponents definitely pointed
to a probable San Diego showdown. Definitely think the
Colts could afford to gamble and put extra preparation
time into the Chargers team that has beaten them two in a
row. The football minds of Peyton Manning and Tony
Dungy have now been focused on this game for 3 weeks,
and that should lead to a sharp performance.
San Diego ruined Indy?s perfect season in Game 14 of
2005, and of course beat the Colts back in November of
this season. Manning threw a combined 8 interceptions in
those two games, and has looked uncomfortable against
the pressure of the Chargers 3-4 defense (4 sacks in ?05
meeting, and 2 sacks and constant hurries in this year?s
matchup). I expect Manning to make the proper
adjustments behind a healthier offensive line than in the
first meeting, and he now has Marvin Harrison, Anthony
Gonzalez (3 games of 85 or more yards in the last 5), and
Dallas Clark, all who missed the first clash, back in the
lineup. The Colts really came out flat in that game, as they
lost the ?battle of undefeateds? against New England the
week before, and lost to the Chargers by 2 despite
allowing only 177 yards of offense, as Darren Sproles
scored on both punt and kick returns in the first quarter.
Special teams have been a weakness all season for Indy,
and the extra preparation time should help there. If Dungy
doesn?t like what he sees in practice, he won?t risk losing a
playoff game in the manner he did the first meeting, and I
wouldn?t be surprised if he pooches or kicks away from
Sproles, and lets the league?s best yards per play defense
(4.7) do the work here.
All told, Indy holds a huge 1.0 net yard per play advantage
in this one. San Diego has regressed by 49 yards per
game offensively and 18 ypg defensively this season.
They have made up for that regression with a whopping
+24 in the turnover department. The potential loss or
limitedness of Antonio Gates due to his toe injury would
really hurt the Chargers here, and the weak schedule they
played down the stretch masks the fact that lead blocker
Lorenzo Neal is missed in the running game as LaDainian
Tomlinson ran for 15 yards on his first 15 carries against
Tennessee last week. The fresher team, along with huge
edges in coaching and QB play round out our advantages
and there is a very good chance this is the last game in the
RCA Dome where Indy is 11-5 ATS home chalk the last two
seasons. Expect a big performance by the superior team.
Colts by 14










Giants @ Cowboys
January 13th, 2007, 4:30PM EST
Line: Cowboys ?7?, 47
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Impressive performance by the Giants on Sunday.
None of the three players hurt in their win over New
England were healthy (Kawika Mitchell played only
after an injury to another linebacker), their starters
hadn?t had a break, they were down 7-0 and had
earned zero first downs in the first quarter, yet they
came back to win going easily. The Giants entered
the game only 1-5 against teams that concluded the
season winning records, yet they withstood the early
storm to beat the Bucs. Eli Manning has played very
well the past three weeks, going 49--74 for 547 and
6 TDs with 3 interceptions.
The Giants have now won 8 straight road games,
but they have had a world of trouble slowing down
Tony Romo. The Cowboys QB has lit up the Giants
this season. In the two wins over New York, Romo
has gone 35-52 for 592 yards for 8 TD?s and 2
interceptions. The most impressive number inside
of that is averaging 11 yards every time he?s
dropped back to pass. Romo better play well here,
because the media in Dallas is abuzz with his minivacation
with Jessica Simpson and her family.
Cowboys fans aren?t thrilled with that distraction and
would have preferred constant film-watching over
the weekend.
The Cowboys haven?t played well since dismantling
the Packers in that spotlight Thursday night game
on November 29th. They haven?t covered a game
and outgained only Carolina in going 2-2 straight up
to conclude the season. And they can?t just write off
the loss in Washington, as they played starters in
the first half and had every intention to get off to a
good start early in that game, yet did nothing of the
sort. But they had everything wrapped up and it is
tough to maintain focus in such a situation.
We?re going to trust the Cowboys to get back into
the swing offensively with the expected return of
Terrell Owens this week (he?s slated to practice by
Thursday), which is priced into this line. Teams that
are familiar with each other tend to have low scoring
matchups, but that hasn?t been the case this year
between these divisional rivals, as the Cowboys have
won both games. They won their opener at home
45-35 in a game featuring 911 yards of total offense
before winning up at the Meadowlands 31-20 in a
game that saw them win yardage only 323-300.
That yardage seems low but the Cowboys were
trying to run clock late and the teams combined for
7 scoring drives of 60 yards or more. We lean
toward the Cowboys a little but have been out of
step in trying to fade the Giants over the second half
of the season. So our judgment on the New Yorkers
isn?t impressive. This appears to be a game that will
have some scoring, Look to the over.

 

[GIANTS007]

PONTWISE



SEATTLE (11-6) at GREEN BAY (13-3)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12 -- 4:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
LINE: GREEN BAY BY 8 -- O/U: 40

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Seattle ......... 43.1 . 25- 18 .. 20-18 .. 100-101 .. 247- 221 .. +10 . Green Bay
Green Bay... 44.1 . 27- 18 .. 19-19 .. 100-103 .. 271- 210 .. + 4 . by 6.3 Pts
Mike Holmgren now has 13 playoff wins, & takes on his old squad. Sure, they've
met since he took over the Seahawks in '99, but never in the playoffs. Seattle was
not at its best in win over Washington (14 FDs), with Hasselbeck only 1/2, after a
28/12 regular season. And Alexander at just 3.5 ypr. The Pack has won 17-of-20
on the field, covering 19-of-25, & clicking at 33.2 ppg in their last 7 meaningful
games. They've ridden Grant (5.1 ypr) in rising 11 spots in overland production, &
of course, there is Brett (28 TD passes), & seemingly another NFL record each
wk. The SU winner is a combined 31-0-2 ATS when these 2 take the field. Pack!
PROPHECY:

GREEN BAY 31 - Seattle 20 RATING: 5


JACKSONVILLE (12-5) at NEW ENGLAND (16-0)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12 -- 8:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: NEW ENGLAND BY 12 -- O/U: 48

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Jacksonville 45.9 . 26- 20 .. 20-18 .. 149- 97 .. 202- 218 .. +11 . Nw England
Nw England 45.5 . 37- 17 .. 25-17 .. 116- 98 .. 296- 190 .. +16 . by 17.5 Pts
Well the smoking Jags (4.7-1.7 ypr edge LW) nearly let it get away from them at
Pittsburgh, blowing all of a 28-10 lead, before a brilliant run by Garrard bailed them
out. But he also threw 2 picks, after an awesome 18/3 for the regular season.
J'Ville is averaging 30.5 ppg in its last 11 outings, is on a 7-1 spread run, & has set
a team record with 54 TDs. But the Pats are the standard, with their perfect 16-0
slate, averaging 41.4 ppg in their first 8 (+117 pts ATS), but only 32.3 ppg in their
last 8 (-49 pts ATS). Brady: 50/8 & >4,800 yds; Moss: 23 TDs. Jags were stung
for nearly 300 PYs by Roethlisberger, so Brady should do his thing. Pats the play.
PROPHECY:

NEW ENGLAND 34 - Jacksonville 17 RATING: 3



SAN DIEGO (12-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (13-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS BY 8? -- O/U: 46?

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
San Diego ... 45.2 . 25- 17 .. 17-18 .. 124-108 .. 193- 208 .. +25 . Indianapolis
Indianapolis 45.7 . 28- 16 .. 22-16 .. 107-107 .. 252- 173 .. +18 . by 8.2 Pts
Red-hot Chargers have covered 7 straight, by 67 pts, but by mere ? pt LW. But,
as we stated a week ago, they are hardly overpowering, ranking 14th or
worse in 5-of-6 major yardage categories. Rivers: just 22/16 for the year;
Tomlinson: 2.0 ypr vs Tennessee; & Gates: toe injury. Two months ago,
SanDiego caught Indy off its grueling loss to the Pats, winning 23-21, with
Vinatieri missing a 29-yd FG in the final 2 minutes, & Manning throwing a
franchise record 6 interceptions! The Colts are 18-2 SU in meaningful
games lately, & 13-4 ATS vs non-division. SU winner 17-0 ATS in SD tilts.
PROPHECY:

INDIANAPOLIS 33 - San Diego 17 RATING: 2



NEW YORK GIANTS (11-6) at DALLAS (13-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 4:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
LINE: DALLAS BY 7? -- O/U: 47

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
NY Giants ... 46.3 . 23- 21 .. 20-21 .. 132- 96 .. 196- 207 ... - 6 . Dallas
Dallas .......... 45.6 . 28- 20 .. 20-19 .. 109- 95 .. 257- 213 .. + 5 . by 8.0 Pts
These 2 division rivals meet for the umpteenth time, but this is their first-ever
meeting in a playoff setting. The Giants have been superb of late, winning 11 of
their last 15 games, but more importantly are on franchise-record run of 8 straight
road wins, allowing only 13.4 ppg in their last 7 RGs. Their 24 unanswered pts at
Tampa opened many an eye, as the Bucs were a superb home play. The 'Boys are
13-2 SU in meaningful games lately, with Romo at 36/19. And Owens (15 TDs in
15 games) is expected to play (ankle). But Dallas is just 5-7 ATS lately, & certainly
not as impressive as in the early going. Third win of the year over NY, but by a hair.
PROPHECY:

Dallas 24 - NEW YORK GIANTS 23 RATING: 4

POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CLEMSON over Florida State (Sat) RATING: 1
CLEMSON over No Carolina State (Tues) RATING: 1
TENNESSEE over Vanderbilt (Thurs) RATING: 2
OHIO STATE over Purdue (Sat) RATING: 2
UTAH STATE over New Mexico St (Sat) RATING: 3
WAKE FOREST over Maryland (Tues) RATING: 3
DELAWARE over Va Commonw'lth (Wed) RATING: 4
DEPAUL over Villanova (Wed) RATING: 4
ARIZONA over Stanford (Thurs) RATING: 5
DUKE over Virginia (Sun) RATING: 5

 

[GIANTS007]

THE SPORTS MEMO

Seattle at Green Bay -8 O/U 40
Recommendation: Green Bay
The Packers have been prepping, resting and scheming the last two weeks
while the Seahawks fought through a tough battle with Washington for the
right to travel to Lambeau. Some would argue momentum from a first round
win as a plus for the underdog Seahawks, and it may very well be, but we saw
a sloppy performance that nearly turned disastrous after a five minute span
of giving up one TD that cut the lead in half, a turnover and subsequent score
that relinquished the lead and a mental error on a kickoff that resulted in yet
another turnover which nearly buried them. Matt Hasselbeck was not sharp,
the receiving corps which was rumored to be healthy looked shaky and
dropped passes and the absence of a rushing attack (which gained only 77
yards on 21 carries last week) will eventually do them in this week. The Packers
have been very strong at home both SU and ATS traditionally and this
season was no different as they pushed their way to a 6-1-1 record against the
number in front of the ?cheese-heads?. Green Bay has become a complete
team after relying almost exclusively on the pass early on this season thanks
to Ryan Grant and a developing offensive line that has taken a real liking to
the zone blocking scheme they employ. Grant has emerged from the stable
with five 100 yard rushing efforts and at least one TD in each game since
week 12. It brings balance and legitimacy to an offense that ranks second
overall in total yardage and fourth in points scored while being led by a true
MVP candidate in Brett Favre. While Seattle?s pressure caused Todd Collins
a lot of misery we saw that the short to intermediate passing game can neutralize
some of that pressure and that is exactly the type of offense Green
Bay runs. The Pack has covered in 13 of their last 17 games overall, including
four straight as a favorite in this price range. They improve that number
to five straight this weekend and send former coach Mike Holmgren home.





New York +7.5 at Dallas O/U 47
Recommendation: New York
In perhaps the most intriguing matchup of the weekend these very familiar
divisional rivals square off for a spot in the NFC Championship game.
The Cowboys made easy work of their schedule as Tony Romo guided
a brilliant offense that featured two strong running backs (Jones and
Barber) the NFC?s best WR (Owens) and maybe the best TE in football
(Witten). Their massive offensive line took over late in games and the
Cowboys, despite having the NFC?s highest scoring offense at 28.5 ppg
could play ball control when needed. The defense has looked somewhat
suspect, particularly in the secondary, but a good pass rush has masked
those issues at times this season. Big D looked almost untouchable early
in the year while covering in seven of their first nine games including two
double digit wins over this same Giants team (8-1 SU). But they stumbled
toward the end of the year losing four straight against the number and
are banged up with both Romo and TO missing practice time. The Giants
overcame a devastating collapse against New England and a terrible
first quarter in which they failed to gain a single net yard of offense to
post an impressive win in Tampa in the Wild Card round. They are playing
their best football of the season at just the right time. Eli Manning
has been rock solid, the running game has had contributions from Jacobs
and Bradshaw, the offensive line has protected, the receivers finally held
on to the ball and the pass rush from speed-ends like Strahan, Tuck and
company has been phenomenal. We still don?t trust Eli or coach Coughlin
completely here in the playoffs but their strong road record (now 8-1 ATS)
cannot be ignored. They will likely lose again but we?ll call for this one to
be closer the third time around. Take the touchdown-plus with the Giants.




San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Indianapolis
The Chargers are feeling great heading into Indy this week, and why not?
They finally won a home playoff game despite losing Antonio Gates during
the first half, they blanked the Titans in the second half outgaining
them by nearly 200 yards, and they have now won seven straight both
straight up and against the number. The defense, which finished first in
the league in takeaways has been flying to the ball and pressuring QBs
into bad decisions, allowing no more than 17 points during this stretch
run. And who can forget the performance they had right before this seven
game run when they picked off Peyton Manning six times? Not this
confident bunch from the West Coast, not the Colts, and certainly not
Peyton Manning. Indy will be out for redemption after blowing a chance
to win that game despite the turnovers and this will be the perfect spot.
For as much as they struggled early in that game the offense and defense
easily outplayed the Chargers. In fact, San Diego was outgained by
over 200 yards and scored just 10 points offensively despite good field
position nearly all game. Aside from two kick return TDs from Darren
Sproles the Chargers rarely looked like a threat to score. And it wasn?t
some fluke, no, the Colts finished with the NFL?s number one ranked
scoring defense at just 16.4 points per game. We?ll side with the reigning
Super Bowl Champs at home with a bit of a revenge factor against a team
that has struggled on the road this year and whose offense has been
spotty at best. Chargers simply can?t keep pace this week, take Indy.





Jacksonville at New England -13 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Over
The Pats accomplished the impossible by going 16-0 SU through the regular
season. The team, however, was either disinterested or perhaps just
overvalued as the season wound down, because despite finishing with
the league?s top rated offense in yardage, passing yardage and points
per game scored they covered just once in their final six games. The Jags
were money in the bank this season with an 11-5 record against the number
during the regular season (bettered only by the Browns in the AFC)
including a rock solid 6-3 ATS mark away from home. While Tom Brady
and Randy Moss have set all kinds of records (Brady?s 50 TD to eight
INT ratio, Moss? 23 TD catches) David Garrard, Fred Taylor and Maurice
Jones-Drew have quietly established a strong offensive core. The Jags
have scored no fewer than 24 points since a Monday Night Football affair
against Indy in mid October, a stretch of games that included road outings
against Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Indy, Pittsburgh as well as strong
showings at home against Buffalo and San Diego. We know the Pats can
score, just look at their 37 ppg average. Match that up against a Jacksonville
defense that is decidedly down this season from recent editions
and whose secondary looked extremely susceptible (even with Rashean
Mathis picking off passes) and this total looks cheap. Weather may be
cold but the wind is supposed to be a non-factor according to preliminary
reports which shouldn?t hinder either attack. Play this one over.









TIM TRUSHEL (1/12)
Washington State at UCLA
Recommendation: Under
There are no easy baskets when facing Washington State. With a
perfect 13-0 record, the Cougars have struck perfection behind
a tremendous defense that has allowed an average of less than
50 points per game. In their conference opener against an uptempo
Washington Huskies team, they limited their rivals to just
52 points while forcing 14 turnovers. Entering that game, Washington
had averaged 78 points per game and yet against the
Cougars stifling defense they could manage just one field goal in
the final 6:20. On the other side of this match-up UCLA is equal
to the task on the defensive side as well having allowed only one
opponent to eclipse 63 points scored this season. This becomes
further impressive when you consider that up-tempo teams like
Michigan State, Texas, California and Maryland are on their schedule.
Off a road sweep last weekend against Stanford and California,
the PAC-10 got its first taste of UCLA freshman Kevin Love.
The 6-foot-10 center was tremendous scoring 19 points with 14
rebounds for his seventh double-double of the season. He also
played excellent defense and stymied Stanford and California?s
big men. Stanford was thought to be a team that could match
the Bruins? size and physical nature and true to form second
chances were rare as UCLA tightened up in the second half. Last
season in the two meetings between the teams neither eclipsed
55 points in either game as 98 and 107 were the total points
scored. We expect more of the same in 2008. Play it Under.






ROB VENO (1/12)
San Francisco at San Diego
Recommendation: San Diego
Conference season opener for each of these mid to lower rung
WCC teams so focus and intensity should be there. With that
aspect of the playing field being level, I?ll choose to side with the
home team which has other notable advantages. For the young
Toreros (three freshmen in their top seven), the non-conference
schedule results find them far more ready for this contest than
the transitioning USF squad. San Diego has played and competitively
battled UNLV, USC, New Mexico, Boise State and Kentucky
(won straight up 81-72) all away from home. Poor first halves
versus South Alabama in the Anaheim Classic and at Nevada
were backed by solid second halves which shows that this team
adjusts and competes for the full 40 minutes. Their defensive superiority
in this game (allow 11 ppg less than San Francisco) will
likely factor into this result since despite their youth, San Diego
matches up very well athletically. The Dons are currently struggling
offensively under the new direction of defensive minded
HC Eddie Sutton, averaging just 59.3 ppg in the three contests
he?s coached. Expect USD to take advantage of the Dons who
have not meshed yet and figure to have breakdowns on both
sides of the floor during stretches of this game. The junior tandem
of forward Gino Pomare (57.3 FG%) and explosive guard
Brandon Johnson (teams leading scorer and three point shooter)
are potent enough to provide a sizeable margin for the Toreros
here as they get the league season off to a victorious start.




BRENT CROW (1/12)
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Recommendation: Vanderbilt
The Vanderbilt Commodores should be 16-0 when they travel to
Rupp Arena to face the struggling Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky
dropped to 6-7 with its home loss to Louisville last week and has
not played since. The Wildcats have finally gotten healthy with
guards Jodie Meeks and Derrick Jasper returning to the lineup, but
it did not help them against Louisville. Meeks was just 1-8 from the
floor for seven points in 31 minutes and Jasper was 2-4 in 31 minutes,
scoring six points. Even with Meeks and Jasper, the Wildcats
are a team of just five players, with no help from the bench. They
were worn out by the deeper Cardinals and the pace of the game,
a problem that will hurt them again this week against the Commodores.
Vanderbilt?s undefeated start is no fluke, this is a solid club.
The Commodores have size, experience, shooting and depth, and
should have no trouble waltzing out of Rupp with another win. The
Commodores have 10 players that play at least 11 minutes per game,
and only Shan Foster averages more than 28 minutes per contest.
Foster leads them in scoring at 21.1 ppg, with freshman center Andrew
Ogilvy next at 19.3. Ogilvy, Ross Neltner and Alan Metcalfe
are three guys that will give the Wildcats fits inside, as Kentucky
has only freshman Patrick Patterson to combat them. Vandy likes
to play fast, averaging 87 ppg and their constant pressure will wear
out the thin Wildcats. Look for Vandy to make it three straight
road wins at Rupp Arena and keep their unbeaten season going



DAVID JONES (1/13)
Indiana at Golden State
Recommendation: Over


Indiana has become a vastly different team under new head coach
Jim O?Brien this season. The Pacers are second in the Eastern
Conference in scoring while allowing the most points per game in
the East (through January 3rd). Indy has three solid scoring options
with Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, and Jermaine O?Neal
all averaging more than 15 points per game. Point guard Jamaal
Tinsley is thriving as the catalyst of the higher tempo offense.
The Pacers also have some depth and the ability to score on the
break or in half court sets. The Warriors counter by leading the
NBA in scoring while giving up more points than any team in the
league (through January 3rd). With a 19-7 run to close 2007,
the Warriors are regaining their mojo from last season?s playoff
run. With six players averaging in double figures, Golden State is
able to provide constant offensive pressure to their foes. Baron
Davis continues to be one of the NBA?s elite point guards with
an average of over 20 points per game to lead the attack. The
Warriors are especially explosive at home with an average of
about seven more points per game compared to their offensive
numbers on the road. Golden State went 9-5 to the over in their
first 14 home games of the year. While this total will be very
high, these clubs should be poised to go up and down the court
in a game that should get into the 230s to yield an over in a
showdown of the highest tempo teams from each conference.






TEDDY COVERS (1/13)
Portland at Toronto
Recommendation: Toronto
The Raptors have a truly exceptional track record in these early
start Sunday games at home, a regular occurrence on their schedule.
We?ve seen Toronto beat Houston by 13 as 3.5 point underdogs.
We?ve seen them beat Chicago by 15 as five point chalk. The
Raptors even took mighty Boston into overtime before succumbing
in a three point loss. Opposing teams that visit Toronto for a
Sunday afternoon game have a decided disadvantage in both the
awkward start time and the tremendous crowd support that the
Raptors receive for these Sunday afternoon games. In my opinion,
the strength of this scheduling spot is never reflected in the pointspread,
giving us solid value with the Raptors. And let?s not forget
that the Raptors took a 20 point lead against Cleveland this past
Sunday, only to blow the game with a horrific fourth quarter, giving
them a notch more motivation this time around. Portland has
certainly been the single biggest surprise in the NBA this season,
reeling off 16 victories in their last 17 games through the weekend.
But Portland ?s success has largely come at home ? this is
not a team to fear on the highway as they are at the Rose Garden,
with a 5-10 straight up mark in road contests. When these
two teams met in Portland last month, Toronto had little trouble
putting up points, hitting 50% from the floor. But the Raptors did
not get many calls in that game, taking only ten free throws for
the entire contest. As long as the refs don?t swallow their whistles
this time around, we can expect a comfortable Toronto victory.







ERIN RYNNING (1/12)
Orlando at Utah
Recommendation: Over


Two young, up and coming teams will square off Saturday night
as the Magic face the Jazz in Salt Lake City. The common
theme for both of these teams is exciting offense, but troubling
defense. The defensive play from both of these clubs is and
will continue to hold them back from breaking into the NBA?s
elite class. The Magic can score efficiently in many directions
all built around young-stud Dwight Howard on the inside commanding
all the pressure. The tandem of Carlos Arroyo and
Jameer Nelson at point guard teamed with Rashard Lewis
and Hedo Turkoglu on the perimeter simply makes the Magic
tough to stop. However, all four have their defensive deficiencies.
Meanwhile, the Jazz own a similar blueprint. Especially
the tandem of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams give teams
fits defensively. Note the latest addition of sharpshooter Kyle
Korver to this offense completes this team, while teams in the
last month have played a lot of zone defense against them. For
whatever reason this team just can?t come together defensively.
It?s especially troubling when you consider they possess
defensive weapons like Andrei Kirilenko and Ronny Brewer. The
chemistry just isn?t there in terms of stopping the opponent
from a ?team? standpoint. Obviously this game just comes together
as a high-scoring affair with little defense being played
coupled with teams that can score in diverse ways. Play this
one OVER the total this weekend between the Jazz and Magic.

 

[GIANTS007]

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS

Here are some notes for the Semi-Final round of the playoff games. We tried to put as much information
as possible in the write-ups but there was not room for all of it. Here are some questions you might
have about this upcoming round & our researched answers. Not all of these will be in effect for this week's
games. If one is not, we are including it so you can add it to your handicapping arsenal.
How do double digit favorites do in the Semi-Final round? Remember, teams in the Semi-Final round
not only have the homefield edge but had a bye the previous week. They catch their opponent off a big win
in the playoffs & playing a second straight tough game. Since the Playoffs were expanded in 1990 there
have been 16 double digit favorites & they've gone 10-6 ATS & 9-7 O/U's. Since 1997 there have been 6
DD favs & they are 5-1 SU & ATS. Pittsburgh was the lone DD dog winner in 2005.
If a team pulled a road upset in the Wild Card round, how do they fare on the road the next week?
Since '97, this has happened 10 times & the Cinderella team has delivered a 2-8 ATS record the next week. The
2 teams that covered were the '05 Panthers beating CHI & the '04 NYJ who covered vs PIT but did lose.
How do teams do that COVER by double digits in the Wild Card round? Since the 4 game Wild Card
round was started in 1990, there have been 32 teams that COVERED by double digits including 3 last year. Of
those, 14 were underdogs in the Wild Card round that pulled upsets & those teams went 3-11 ATS in the next
round. Favorites that cruised to big wins are 8-9 ATS in the next round for an overall record of 11-20 ATS. Last year
New England covered by DD's and then upset San Diego in the Semis. In 2005 2 of the 3 teams that covered by
DD covered in the Semis but in 2004 all 3 teams who covered by DD's lost ATS the next round. In 2003 Carolina
& Indy covered by DD's in the Wild Card round & both covered again the next week on the road



How do upset winners in the Wild Card round that won SU by 13 points or more do in the next
round? First of all, since 1981, teams that won SU as 6 pt dogs or more are just 2-8 ATS in the next
round. Atlanta did not just upset Green Bay in 2003, they beat them by 20. Since the NFL went to the 4
game Wild Card round in 1990 there have been 10 teams that pulled an upset in the Wild Card round &
won BIG (by 13 points or more). In the next round those teams are just 2‑8 SU & 3-7 ATS with Carolina
cashing in LY & Minny losing to Philly in 2004.
How have #1 seeds fared? Teams that have been #1 seeds have gone 2-6 ATS the L4 years in the
Conference Semis including just 2-2 SU the L2 years. Playing against #1 seeds overall has been profitable
as they have an overall record of 6-12 ATS since 2003. The last time a #1 seed won the Super Bowl
was 2003 as NE beat Carolina and the last time a #1 seed covered in the SB was 1998 when Denver
beat Atlanta 34-19. It has been 14 years since two #1 seeds have faced off in the SB as Dallas beat
Buffalo 30-13 in 1993.
How do teams do that are off an OT win? Since 1977, there have been 15 OT games in the NFL playoffs.
In 2003 CAR & PHI were each off of OT games when they played so we will toss out that result. Teams are
just 3-10 SU off an OT win & 5-7-1 ATS. Last year Chicago beat Seattle in OT and then went on to win &
cover against New Orleans. In 2003 TEN hung on for a win over PIT in OT & then were beaten by OAK
41-24 the next week. In 2001, however, NE got the OT win over OAK at home & traveled to PIT the next
week & not only won, but upset the Rams in the Super Bowl. In 2003 GB beat Seattle in OT & then should
have beaten Philly (except for 4th & 34) but ended up losing in OT although they did cover (+5').



The Patriots beat JAX 24-21 LY as a 3 pt AD in late Dec. NE had a 10-7 halftime lead & both had a
pair of 60+ yd TD drives in the 2H. With 1:46 left Garrard was sk?d & fmbl?d & NE held on for the win. NE
had 22-12 FD & 359-309 yd edges in the game. NE is 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS vs teams with a winning record
while JAX is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. NE has 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with a 415-294 yd edge & 35-15 avg
score. JAX is 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS on the road TY with a 339-327 yd edge and 25-24 avg score. There are
4 common foes (SD, BUF, IND & PIT) with NE going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS while JAX is 4-2 SU & ATS. JAX
doesn?t have any Pro Bowlers while NE has 8 & Brady was voted 2007?s NFL MVP. Belichick is 12-2 SU &
8-5-1 ATS with NE in the playoffs including 3 Super Bowl wins while Del Rio is 1-1 SU & ATS in the playoffs
including a 28-3 loss to NE in the ?05 WC game as a 7 pt AD. Del Rio started a rusty Leftwich coming back
from inj & NE blizted him ruthlessly with Garrard only seeing time when the game was out of reach.
The Jags surprised the NFL by cutting Byron Leftwich just before season started & going with David
Garrard. Garrard has been very efficient (19-5 ratio) & didn?t throw his 1st int until the 2nd IND game.
He is a good fit in OC Dirk Koetter?s offense & after scoring 24 or more points only 19 times in Del Rio?s
first 4 years JAX has hit the number 11 times TY. Since his return from an ankle injury in mid-Nov, JAX
is avg an NFL best 34 ppg (NE 29.7). The Jags are actually a more balanced offense than LY & Fred
Taylor has avg?d 120 ypg (7.7) in his L5 games. JAX doesn?t have standout talent at the WR spot but
Reggie Williams is becoming a quality scoring threat with 10 TD?s & Northcutt is one of the better slot
WR. JAX OL has started the L8 games together is 15th in the NFL in sacks as Garrard is being sacked
once every 15.5 pass att?s. The Jags #12 defense has always had a reputation of being physical & is only
allowing 88 ypg (3.9) rushing on the year if the season opener vs TEN is omitted. While they did lose DT
Stroud (ankle) they picked up Grady Jackson after he was cut by ATL & he has been a very good next
to John Henderson. JAX could get MLB Peterson back here from a broken hand but WLB Daryl Smith
has done an excellent job in his place. JAX #15 pass defense is headed by Rashean Mathis who is a
lockdown CB & rookie FS Reggie Nelson leads the team with 5 int. The Jaguars have our #20 special
teams unit despite holding teams to just 7.8 ypc on PR & 19.7 ypc on KR.
NE set the NFL record for most points scored (589), TD passes (50) & TD rec in a season (Moss 23).
TY?s #1 offense is largely a Run & Shoot style that maximizes the talent at the WR position. Brady finished
1st in the NFL win comp % (68.9), yards (4806), ypa (8.31), & QBR (117.2). He has TD/int ratio of 50-8 &
really only struggled twice TY (1H vs BAL & 2H vs MIA). Previously NE had spread the ball around but TY
only NE?s top 4 WR?s caught passes & Wes Welker wound up tied for the NFL lead in rec?s (112). Donte?
Stallworth started strong but only had 20 rec & 0 TD?s in the 2H of the season while Jabar Gaffney had 24 of
36 rec in the 2H of the season. TE Ben Watson has been slowed by an ankle injury but should be fine here
& Kyle Brady has been dominant as a run blocking TE. Laurence Maroney missed 3 of the first 13 games
with a groin injury & only avg?d 53 ypg (4.2) in that span. The OL only allowed 8 sacks in the first 8 games &
13 over the final 13 games & the OL started 69 of 80 games together. NE has the #2 & #4 units on 3rd Dn
with the #2 red-zone offense but #27 red-zone defense. The #4 defense has its issues vs the run with six
100 yd rushing games allowed (144 ypg 4.8) with some alarming rushing totals vs MIA, BAL & PIT. While
NT Vince Wilfork was outstanding, DE Richard Seymour was slow to recover after being on the PUP for the
first 6 games & Ty Warren had a down year. Adalius Thomas is a better fit as an OLB while Mike Vrabel had
a career year with 12.5 sacks. Tedy Bruschi was once again solid vs the run & Junior Seau was serviceable.
Asante Samuel?s dominance had teams going after Ellis Hobbs who did a good job overall. SS Rodney
Harrison has lost a step but his leadership makes the overall NE defense better & is one of Belichick?s most
trusted players. NE has our #19 spec teams unit largely due to Chris Hanson?s 36.1 net avg (24th).
While NE has looked mortal the past few games they dominated playoff teams at home with a 30
ppg margin. The Jaguars make their 2nd long trip to the Northeast & while they are known as a tough &
physical defense they have allowed 25 ppg their L7 road games. DT Henderson strained his hamstring
LW & is ?. No coach game plans better than Belichick with extra rest & he?ll have the Patriots back to
early season form with a dominating win.
FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 38 Jacksonville 17 RATING: 2★



The Chargers escaped with a win vs IND in the prior meeting 23-20 as a 3.5 pt HD. Manning had one
of the worst games ever as he tossed a career high 5 int on a soggy SNF game. He managed to rally IND
from a 23-7 4Q deficit with a 7 yd TD pass to make it 23-15. Rivers had a ball slip out of his hands & IND
recovered & ret it for a TD (2 pt ng). IND drove to the SD 11 with 94 sec left only to see Vinatieri miss a 29
yd FG. IND forced SD to go 3 & out but Manning was int?d on the final play. Rivers only passed for 104 yds
(54%) with 2 ints while Tomlinson was held to 76 yds rushing (3.6). IND is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with a
349-322 yd edge & 27-18 avg score. SD is 4-4 SU & ATS on the road being outgained 346-324 with an avg
score of 24-22. IND is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs teams with a winning record with an avg score of 23-20 (no SD).
SD is 2-3 SU & ATS vs teams with a winning record being outscored 23-19 (no IND). Their are 8 common
foes with IND going 9-2 SU & 5-6 ATS with a 340-299 yd edge (+16 TO?s) with a 27-18 avg score. SD went
9-3 SU & ATS with a 329-294 yd edge (+15 TO?s) & 25-16 avg score. IND has 5 Pro Bowlers with 4 on off
& Bob Sanders on def. SD has 4 on off, 3 on def & a ST representative. Dungy is 6-2 ATS as a playoff fav
while Turner is just 1-1 ATS as a playoff HC but has experience as an assistant.
By the time Norv Turner took over SD had to replace their top 5 coaches from LY. SD struggled the 1st 8
games going 4-4 SU & ATS with a humiliating loss to MIN. Thru the 1st 8 games SD was outgained by an avg of
355-308 (+8 TO?s) with an avg score of 24-21. After the IND game SD regrouped & put the onus on Tomlinson &
SD posted a 342-271 yd edge (+13 TO?s) with an avg score of 29-14. SD has outrushed foes 149 (4.4) to 91 (3.6)
over that span as well. TE Gates (check status) remains the top target for Rivers though trading for WR Chambers
from MIA gives them a proven #1 WR & Tomlinson is still a reliable weapon out of the backfield. SD?s OL doesn?t
have the continuity of LY?s unit as Ctr Hardwick missed 4 games & Turner tinkered with the RT spot but they have
started the L5 games together & Rivers has been sacked 22 times. SD released 2 starting LB?s in the offseason
but was able to rely on one of the best 3-4 DL?s in the NFL headed up by NT Jamal Williams. Minus the MIN game
SD only allowed 90 ypg (3.6) on the year with six 100 yd games (127 ypg 4.0 in those). The OLB tandem of Phillips
& Merriman combined for 20 of the 42 sk & ILB?s Cooper & Wilhelm do a decent job in the middle. SD?s #5 pass
rush is a huge weapon for their secondary which is better than their #13 pass D ranking as they lead the NFL with
30 int. #3 CB Cromartie has 10 int on the year & CB Jammer has developed into a shutdown CB. SD has our #3
ST unit with P Scifres having a 39.6 net avg & SD is 5th in KR coverage (20.9) & 6th in KR (25.5).
Despite his 8th 4000 yd season in 9 years Peyton Manning has had a bit of a down season as he has struggled
with Marvin Harrision (swollen knee) out for 10 games. Manning had his 1st season with more than 10 ints in 5 years
but IND finished with the #5 off. With Harrison out, Reggie Wayne had a career year finishing 3rd in rec?s & 1st in rec
yards in the NFL. Manning?s relied on Wayne so much that the combo of Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai & Anthony Gonzalez
combined only had 32 more rec & 46 more yards. While Joseph Addai became the 3rd Colts RB to start his career with
B2B 1000 yd rushing seasons he only has four 100 yd rushing games & has avg?d 46 ypg rushing (3.2) over the final 8.
IND OL has only started 69 games together as RT Diem has missed 6 with a knee inj & LT Ugoh has sat out 5 games
with neck & ankle inj?s. IND has all?d 23 sacks TY (7th) & has the #1 & #30 units on 3rd Dn as well as the #10 & #21
red-zone units. The Colts used to be all offense with no defense until Dungy finally got the players he needed to make
his Tampa-2 defense run. They finished 3rd in the NFL on total defense as they survived the loss of DE Dwight Freeney
thanks to Bob Sanders who at 5?8? 204 is used as an extra LB but he has the speed of a CB & is extremely smooth
in coverage. He has been instrumental in the development of CB?S Kelvin Hayden & Marlin Jackson allowing Antoine
Bethea to be the single high safety. MLB Gary Brackett is the only LB to start all 16 games & Freddie Keiaho has done
a good job replacing June despite missing 5 games with an elbow inj. The DL took a major blow when Freeney landed
on IR & IND has all?d nine 100+ yd rushing games (137 ypg 4.3). Despite the lack of a pass rush (26th) IND has the
#4 pass D over the L8W all?ng 171 ypg (65%) with a 9-11 ratio. The Colts special teams are a major concern as they
have our #32 unit all?g 13.9 on PR?s & 25.0 on KR?s with 4 returns for TD?s combined.
The Chargers rebounded after a flat 1H to advance & Rivers makes his 2nd ever dome start (1st vs
MIN TY) in possibly the final game at the RCA Dome. SD has struggled on the road with a 1-3 SU record vs
playoff teams with the win vs TEN in OT. Tomlinson avg?s 21 ypg (1.1) less on the road TY vs at home with
half the rushing TD?s (5). The Colts went to San Diego and held the Chargers to 91 yards rushing and they
kept 4 of their next 8 foes from 100 yds rushing with a 3.5 ypc. The Chargers reached their goal of a playoff
win & now face a defending SB champ with an early morning kickoff. FORECAST: COLTS 34 Chargers 14 RATING: 2★




This is the 3rd year in a row the Packers & Seahawks have met & the home team has won 2 straight.
This is the 2nd playoff meeting with GB beating SEA 33-27 in OT as a 7.5 pt HF in 2003. Hasselbeck made
the famous ?we?ll take the ball & score? comment after winning the coin toss only to see GB return an int for
a TD for the win. LY SEA beat GB 34-24 as a 10 pt HF on MNF. GB went up 21-12 early in the 2H but SEA
had B2B TD drives of 62 & 77 yds & GB hit a 34 yd FG. Favre turned the ball over on each of GB?s final 3
drives. SEA has only had 2 winning seasons on the road in their 32 year history going 3-5 SU & ATS TY. GB
reestablished itself at Lambeau with a 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS record. GB has the #8 & #7 home units (+6 TO?s)
vs SEA?s #18 & #21 road units (+1 TO?s). There are 4 common reg season foes (STL, CHI, PHI & CAR) with
GB going 3-2 SU & ATS being outgained 311-305 with a 21.4-21 avg score. SEA is 4-1 SU & ATS with a
327-313 yd edge & 25-17 avg score. SEA has faced 3 teams with a winning record in the reg season (1-2
SU & ATS) & has our #32 sked. GB has our #22 sked & is 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. While this is McCarthy?s 1st
playoff game as a HC he is on a 17-3 SU & 15-4-1 ATS run. Holmgren has vastly more playoff exp but is
6-5-1 ATS on the playoff road. SEA overall is 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs including SB 40.
Brett Favre has continued to refine his game & GB has the #2 offense & a 13-3 record to show for it.
Favre has posted 10 games with a QBR of 100+ TY & has matured along with his skill position players as
he is letting them make plays instead of forcing the ball. He has snapped up the NFL?s career passing TD?s,
yards & int records. GB traded a 6th RD DC to NYG for RB Ryan Grant who has rushed for 93 ypg (5.1) since
becoming the official starter with five 100 yd rushing games. GB had the #32 rush off over the first 8 weeks
& finished #7 over the L8W. The receiving corps is what makes the Packers so dangerous as 4 players have
47 or more rec?s with Donald Driver being the top option, Greg Jennings being the deep threat (17.4 ypc, 3rd
best), Donald Lee developing into a starting TE & James Jones as the slot WR. Despite only all?g 19 sacks
(3rd) GB has started 7 different OL combos as HC McCarthy hasn?t been satisfied with the OG play. GB is 8th
& 3rd on 3rd Dns with the #14 off & #8 def in the red-zone. The Packers? #11 D is very well balanced all-around
& DE Aaron Kampman quietly had another solid season with 12 sacks (15.5 LY). GB rotates in DE?s Cullen
Jenkins for rush defense & KGB (9.5 sacks) in pass situations. The Pack has all?d seven 100 yd rushing games
(134 ypg, 4.4) but has only pulled in 4 sacks over the L5 games. GB?s LB unit is very underrated as Barnett
& Hawk are at a PB level & Poppinga is one of the better SLB?s. Their #12 pass D is headed by Al Harris &
Charles Woodson who give the team one of the best CB tandems in the NFL. GB came into the year with our
#32 spec teams unit but finished 8th as their coverage units are only allowing 5.9 on PR?s & 20.9 on KR?s.
It?s not often that a team wins its 4th straight div title & is regarded as flying under the radar but that?s what
SEA has done TY. The Seahawks offense underwent a major shift after the CLE game as broken ribs & a left
wrist inj slowed RB Alexander down to 62 ypg (3.3) over the first 8 & while SEA avg 338 ypg & 21 ppg they were
only 4-4 (3-5 ATS). Afterward Holmgren put the ball into Hasselbeck?s & his now-healthy WR corps? hands &
while they only gained 361 ypg (28 ppg), they went 6-2 SU & ATS. Hasselbeck has passed for 243 ypg (64%)
with a 15-5 ratio (94.0 QBR) in the L8W making the Pro Bowl with WR Engram having a career year. Holmgren
is running 4-WR sets with Branch being the speed threat & Burleson going over the middle with Hackett working
the slot. SEA?s OL started the first 15 games together with LT Jones being rested vs ATL. SEA made a pair of
great pickups by acquiring DE Kerney (14.5) who is 2007?s NFC sack king to bolster the DL & Jim Mora Jr to
coach the DB?s & be Holmgren?s eventual successor. CB Trufant became a complete CB & is off to his first Pro
Bowl but the LB unit is the backbone of the SEA defense. Pro Bowl LB?s Tatupu & Peterson are an outstanding
tandem & SLB Hill is very underrated. SEA?s #22 pass defense is highly underrated allowing 59% with a 17-22
ratio. SEA is 13th in our special teams rankings & K Josh Brown has a solid rep as a game winner.
LW SEA caught a Redskins team on a 5 day turnaround that traveled cross country to a very hostile
environment. Now SEA has to go to GB which is their 5th road game in 8 weeks. GB held foes to 9 ppg
in its L4 HG?s & a windy day at Lambeau could be a problem for a pass heavy visitor. GB has won its L5
games by an avg of 20 ppg covering each. SEA has only beaten 1 playoff team in the reg season TY &
that was TB at home in the opener. GB is 12-3-1 ATS TY & advances to the next round with a win here.
FORECAST: GREEN BAY 31 SEATTLE 14 RATING: 3★







Dallas won & covered both games vs the Giants TY with a 45-35 shootout in the opener as a 6 pt HF
& 31-20 as a 1.5 pt AF. Despite both losses Manning played well avg 274 ypg (68%) with a 5-3 ratio (94.8
QBR). Romo was outstanding avg 296 yds (67%) with an 8-2 ratio (129.2 QBR) & a ypa of 11.4. DAL is
6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home TY with the #4 & #11 units at home (-1 TO?s). The Giants are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS
on the road TY. LW after going 3 & out on their 1st 3 drives they outgained the Bucs 275-195 & converted
3 TB TO?s into 7 points. Against their 10 common foes DAL went 9-2 SU & 6-5 ATS (minus finale as DAL
rested) with a 363-312 yd edge (+4 TO?s) & a 29-20 avg score. NY went 8-4 SU & ATS with a 316-295 yd
edge (-10 TO?s) & a 21.2-21 avg score. The Giants only have one Pro Bowl player in Umenyiora while DAL
has a whopping 11 PB?s. Coughlin is now 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS in the playoffs while Phillips is 0-3 SU & ATS.
The Giants playoff push was spearheaded by their #8 D which is fortified by a #1 pass rush headed by
a 3 DE rotation of Umenyiora, Strahan & Tuck. The pass rush has masked some issues in the back 7 with
the loss of DE/OLB Kiwanuka & MLB Pierce playing hurt all yr & starting rookie CB Ross. WLB Mitchell was
rested vs NE & his status is unknown. While the Giants are all?g 96 ypg rushing (3.8), they have 9 gms with
100+ yds rushing all?d for 124 ypg (4.6) avg in those. With the loss of RB Barber even more pressure fell on
Eli Manning who started the season passing for 218 ypg (60%) with a 13-9 ratio in the 1st 7 games. Skipping
the MIA game Manning had passed for 214 ypg (52%) with a 6-10 ratio (62.2 QBR) before his impressive
game of 251 yds (69%) with a 4-1 ratio vs NE. He had been limited by poor weather conditions, Burress? bad
ankle, a shaky RB rotation with Jacobs (knee sprain & hamstring) missing 5 games & the loss of TE Shockey
(broken leg). WR Toomer rebounded from LY?s torn ACL to be the #3 receiver & the OL has done a decent
job of protecting him with 29 sacks all?d (12th) & has started all 17 games. However, Ctr O?Hara sustained
a knee injury vs NE & his status is ?. Jacobs has five 100 yd rushing games as a power runner & the team
avg?s 134 ypg rushing (4.5) which is 1 yd & 0.1 ypc less than LY?s numbers with Barber. The Giants have our
#23 spec teams unit as their return units are avg at best with 8.7 PR & 20.1 KR avg?s.
Bill Parcells built this version of the Cowboys but Wade Phillips has managed to get the most out of it &
thanks to OC Garrett the most out of Tony Romo. Romo heads up the #4 passing off & broke several team
records incl passing yards, comp % & TD?s. He finished the year 2nd in passing TD?s & ypa to Brady with
the highest QBR for an NFC QB. He has a great chemstry with Terrell Owens who is 5th in rec yards & 4th
in ypc but will be a gametime decision (ankle). The top receiver for the Cowboys is TE Witten who is 10th
in the NFL & 2nd only to Tony Gonzalez in rec?s. DAL anticipates having Terry Glenn back for this game but
he?ll be limited in snaps & Patrick Crayton has done a good job as the #3 receiving option. DAL is only 17th
in rush & the clear cut #1 RB here is Marion Barber who?s 21st in rushing & 12th in ypc. Julius Jones is now
the 3rd Dn back & the 2 combined have three 100 yd rushing games. LY the DAL OL all?d 37 sacks & they
improved to 25 TY with the same starters for the 1st 14 games until Ctr Gurode missed the L2 with a knee
inj. DAL is 2nd & 27th on 3rd Dns with the #15 & #10 red-zone units. Under Parcells LY DAL finished with the
#13 D but the players didn?t quite fit the scheme. DAL improved to 9th on def & 3rd in sacks (46) vs 19th LY
as Phillips is more aggressive. Not counting the season finale DAL has all?d six 100 yd rushing games (129
ypg, 5.0) with 68 ypg (3.2) in the others. The strength of the Cowboys def is its LB corps with Greg Ellis who
had a great year after tearing his Achillies LY & DeMarcus Ware combining for 26.5 sacks & Bradie James
& Akin Ayodele being the ILB?s. DAL has the #14 pass defense & is all?g 237 ypg (57%) with a 13-6 ratio at
home. Both Terence Newman & FS Ken Hamlin made the Pro Bowl while Anthony Henry led the team with
6 int but Roy Williams can still be burned for big plays in the passing game. DAL has our #15 special teams
unit as they are below avg in coverage units (11.6 PR & 23.0 KR) & are 19th in KR?s with a 22.3 avg.
The Giants have now won 8 straight on the road since an opening week loss at DAL. Their defense gets
the credit for the win streak allowing 14 ppg in that span. DAL has dropped 4 straight ATS & in their 2 SU
losses only scored 6 pts in each. DAL did rest players vs WAS but an offensive team needs 1.5 quarters to
get its timing back. While both games went Over the total this meeting gives an edge to the DC?s as they?ll
be familiar with the opposing QB?s. The early forecast calls for rain & wind which adds to Under call here.
FORECAST: UNDER 48 RATING: 2★




AN AWESOME OFFENSE
Play on any team that scored 500
or more points in the reg season
in their first playoff game.
Reasoning: These are dynamic offensive
teams and many times their D's
get overlooked because they are often
in high scoring games.
1961-2006: 9-1 90%
THIS WEEKS PLAY:
NEW ENGLAND



The Playoffs
ROUND BY ROUND
The following records are team and divisional performances in
the post season. The records are for 1983 thru 2005. When we
analyzed the division records we deleted games when division
rivals faced each other. CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS HOME FAVORITES: 40-41-3 (2-10 L3Y)
HOME UNDERDOGS: 3-0
Home Favorites of:
0-2' 3-2
3-6' 12-19-1
7-9' 18-11
10+ 8-8-2



How Divisions Fared In CSF Round
AFC East 15-14-1
AFC North 13-12
AFC South 3-3
AFC West 11-13-1
NFC East 12-14-1
NFC North 12-15
NFC South 4-2



Teams with the better SU records have gone 44-37-1 vs the spread. (10-3 LY)
? The bigger NFC favorite in this round is 17-5-1



NFC West 15-12-1

 

[GIANTS007]

MARC LAWRENCE


GREEN BAY over Seattle by 11

The Pack is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2005, where they were
last bounced in a first round game here at Lambeau Field. Before we get too
deep into this matchup, keep this thought foremost in your mind: like a hot
chocolate vendor, QB Brett Favre is at his best the faster the temperature drops.
That?s confirmed by the fact that, in his NFL career, he is 36-6 SU & 24-13-5
ATS at home from Game Thirteen out ? including 21-2 SU & 17-3-3 ATS when
facing an opponent off a win. Add to that the fact his counterpart, Matt
Hasselbeck, has covered the number in only 10 of 35 tries off a win in nondivision
battles. While Seattle rolled to a 21-point victory last week against
Washington they did so despite being outgained, 319-304, in the contest, as
they are just 9-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season. That win improved the Seahawks
mark to 2-2 against winning teams this season, hardly a number to hang one?s
hat on this time of the year. The clincher, though, is the success of rested home
teams in the post-season. While they?ve struggled overall of late (0-4 ATS last
season), rested hosts are 15-1 SU & 13-2-1 ATS as favorite of > 7 points
when taking on a .600 > foe off a win since 1990. Get the hot cocoa and
marshmallows ready, Martha. Because after all, by Favre, they make some of
the best hot chocolate in the land in these parts.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12 4:30 PM ET, FOX TV



NEW ENGLAND over Jacksonville by 10
In this corner, the undefeated heavyweight champs of the NFL, with a perfect 16-0
record ? the New England Patriots. Their opponent, hailing from Jacksonville and
sporting a knockout punch with a 12-5 mark ? including eleven consecutive games
with 24 or more points under their belt ? the Jaguars. Adding to the Pats? chance of
shattering the ?72 Dolphins? undefeated Super Bowl legacy is the fact that playoff
teams with lofty win percentages of .900 > are 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS since 1980? but
0-3 ATS the last three games. After starting the year with eight consecutive pointspread
covers, New England fell somewhat to the pressure of carrying an undefeated ledger
when they closed out 2-6 ATS to conclude the campaign. They?ll host a Jaguar squad
they defeated on this field in the 2005 playoffs, one who finished 7-1 ATS in its final
eight games. With that we note Jack Del Rio?s lofty 13-2 ATS mark as a dog with
revenge in games from a loss he?s suffered throughout his NFL career. Fundamentally
Jack poses a potential problem as their strength ? a rush offense that averages 4.6
YPR ? goes into the Pats? Achilles heel ? a rush defense that surrenders 4.4 DYPR.
Yes, Tom Brady against David Garrard is a huge edge in New England?s favor. And
Bill Belichick?s unbeaten career post-season log at home (7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS)
looks to be a knockout waiting to happen, but the impost and the pressure make the
Jags a tempting underdog. Let?s get ready to rummmbbblle.









INDIANAPOLIS over San Diego by 13

Chargers enter as the league?s hottest commodity with seven wins and covers in
their last seven games. They needed a second half surge, though, to get past
Tennessee last week. Truth be told, they are the only team on the playoff scene
that has allowed almost as many yards as they?ve gained this season. They?ll also
take on the defending Super Bowl champions, one with revenge on its mind from
a 23-21 loss in San Diego ? a game in which the Colts outyarded the Chargers,
386-177. That defeat occurred just one week after Indy?s monumental battle with
New England. The PLAYBOOK Database reminds us that defending Super Bowl
champions are murder at home in the playoffs the following season, 10-1 SUATS
as favorites of < 14 points since 1990. In addition, we also note that rested playoff
home teams off a loss are 24-5 SU & 20-9 ATS? a solid winning proposition to
say the least. And, for what it?s worth, Indianapolis head coach Tony Dungy is 14-
1 ATS in his NFL career in SU wins when playing off a loss with revenge. Speaking
of coaches, to his credit Diego boss man Norv Turner is remarkably strong in games
off a DD win against an opponent he beat most recently, now 17-3 ATS. The final
decision-maker in this contest rests at the quarterback position. While Philip Rivers
may some day be a fine QB, he?s nowhere near the stature of Peyton Manning
when it comes to class and ability. And besides, this game is at Peyton?s place.



DALLAS over NY Giants by 10

Facing a division rival they downed twice this season, Dallas will certainly be
put to the test here today. That?s because playoff dogs of 6 > points, with
same-season double revenge (Giants), are 4-3 SU & 6-0-1 ATS since 1989.
Hmmm... not bad for a team that?s won its last eight road games in a row. In
fact, the only road defeat suffered by New York this year was the season opener
here in Dallas. However, before taking a leap off the Empire State building, you
might want to consider that last week?s win by the Giants was their first road
playoff victory in 17 years. And, like the Colts above, the Cowboys are another
rested playoff home team off a loss ? only when these guys are facing an
opponent off one-win exact, they are a perfect 9-0 ATS! In addition, rested
homers also own an outstanding 23-2 SU & 20-5 ATS mark against opponents
they defeated in their most recent meeting if the foe is off a SU underdog win.
Dallas head coach Wade Phillips will obviously need to break his maiden in
order to perpetuate those numbers, though, as Phillips is 0-3 SUATS in his NFL
head coaching career during the post-season. With Cowboy QB Tony Romo
anxious to erase the memory of last year?s botched snap against Seattle, and
Dallas 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS as home chalk of 6 > points in this series, look for
?America?s Team? to hit a Giant trifecta here today.

 

[GIANTS007]

Sports Marketwatch ? NFL Week 19 ? NFL Playoffs

NFL Playoffs- Games to Watch

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of ?Public? square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual ?box-office-pool? ? to the professional sports bettor ? to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of ?Public? money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game?s betting line. They?ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. ?Public Money? dwarfs the amount of ?Sharp Money? buying back the shaded lines.

Take the Sports Information Challenge!

Sports Insights challenges odds providers to an ?update off!?

We offer the industry?s fastest odds and scoring updates for a fraction of the cost of other providers. To prove it, we are offering one free week of Premium Pro service to test your current odds provider against our service. This no-strings-attached offer (no gimmicks, no fine print, no credit card info required), will give you instant access to real-time odds, unique betting statistics from sportsbooks, and winning betting strategy picks. Just login, or sign up for a free basic account to take advantage of this limited-time offer.

Seeing is believing! Our updates will tie or beat any betting odds service, and we only charge $69 a month. Take the Sports Information Challenge today!



Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

The NFL playoffs create a lot of betting interest ? and the public is solidly on the Seattle Seahawks. Almost two out every three bets is coming in on a Seattle team that trounced Washington and ended the season strongly. On the other hand, Green Bay has been ?flying under the radar? for much of the season. The public doesn?t seem to respect the Packers and this gives us value.

The line opened at Green Bay -8 (-9 at + vig at Pinnacle) but has already reached Green Bay -7 at some sportsbooks. That is a huge 1 to 2 point value near the ?key number? of 7.

Green Bay has not yet earned the public?s respect, but they have beaten many quality opponents this season and look like a solid value. Take Green Bay and be on the side of the long-term winners: the sports books.

Green Bay Packers -7

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

The Giants are collecting 70% of the bets placed on this game, based mainly on their strong performances over the past few weeks. Last week, Eli Manning looked solid in the Giants? 24-14 over a good Tampa Bay squad. This followed a huge showing versus the Patriots, even in defeat. That game, which was a heavily-watched nationally-televised media event, earned the Giants many believers.

On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboy juggernaut seems to have slowed down near the end of the season. There are a lot of Cowboy question marks, including Romo?s thumb and TO?s ankle. We feel, however, that the Giants have question marks of their own: particularly Eli Manning?s historic inconsistency. Based on this information, our readers know that we see this as a good contrarian play: buying Dallas at a ?low? and selling the Giants at a ?high.?

Our oddsmaker contacts at the sportsbooks agree. The line opened at Dallas -7.5 and has stubbornly stayed at that level. The linesmakers tell us that heavy public betting on the Giants is balancing ?sharp money? on the Cowboys. With the increased betting interest during the NFL playoffs, however, we may see public money pushing the line down to Dallas -7 across the board. We already see Dallas -7 at the Greek.

Dallas Cowboys -7

Playoff Recap
Green Bay Packers -7 (Bet at Olympic +7-115)
Dallas Cowboys -7 (Bet at Sports Interaction -7)

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to **************.comm for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I?ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

 

[GIANTS007]

CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL RELEASES FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 11-17, 2008

Friday,

January 11
Boston over *New Jersey (NBA)...Celtics have handled N.J. in first two meetings this season, winning by 11 here at the Meadowlands and by 22 in Boston. Realize Nets have won 7 of last 8 SU through Jan. 7, but that run of good form will only serve to alert the Celtics. Boston's "Big Three" are very aware they are on pace to match the NBA's best-ever record, and team remained focused in winning 29 of first 32 SU. Celtic "D" holding foes to league-low 87 ppg & 41% FGs.

BOSTON 100 - *New Jersey 87 RATING - 10


Saturday,

January 12
*MARQUETTE over Notre Dame (Day game)...Since home-lovin' ND (29 straight wins at Joyce Center!) playing on an opponents' home court for 1st time this season, doubt Irish have any better luck now than they had in the same scheduling setup year ago, when they were whipped by 18 at Georgetown. ND thrives at 3-point line (41% on 21 attempts pg), but Irish find no groove vs. tight-covering Marquette (permitting just 30% beyond arc), fired-up after allowing a reg.-season high in 85-72 series setback LY. Meanwhile, super-deep, uptempo Warriors (80 ppg) able to unleash devastating transition game vs. bigger but slower visitor.

*MARQUETTE 84 - Notre Dame 67 RATING - 11



WASHINGTON STATE over *Ucla (Day Game)...Can't knock Ben Howland's no-nonsense UCLA outfit that will welcome chance to engage WSU in Cougs' patient, bump-and-grind style. At the same time, it's hard not to get interested in well-schooled, unbeaten Wazzu bunch that's at all-time best No. 4 in rankings, allowing nation's-low 49.7 ppg, and now forcing foes to pay attention on blocks to rugged 6-10 jr. Baynes (64% from floor) as well as versatile perimeter weapons Low, Weaver, & Rochestie. With possessions limited, as usual, in a Tony Bennett-coached game, this is a big pointspread hurdle for Bruins to overcome.

WASHINGTON STATE 53 - *Ucla 54 RATING - 10




*DRAKE over Missouri State...Drake's ascension to its best-in-school history 12-1 start is reminiscent in many ways of the rise of Washington State in the Pac-10. After father Dick Bennett revived the Cougar program, he retired and left the team in the hands of son Tony, who has lifted Wazzu to even greater heights. This season in Des Moines, son Keno Davis has taken over for father Dr. Tom, and the Bulldogs have taken off. It's been a plus that Keno's inherited a veteran core. Thanks to three DD scorers (soph G Josh Young, sr. G Leonard Houston, 6-8 jr. Jonathan Cox), 6-1 sr. playmaker Adam Emmenecker, and a deep bench (21 points in recent road win at Evansville), Drake leads the league in steals, TO margin, triples per game, and scoring differential.

*DRAKE 80 - Missouri State 59 RATING - 11


Sunday,

January 13
PORTLAND over *Toronto (NBA Day Game)...Portland remains one of hottest pointspread teams in the NBA, as the Blazers have won 15 of last 17 through Jan 8. Portland should be rested for this game, as Blazers have 3 days off before this match, which kicks off a 7-game, 14-day road trip. Blazers victimized Toronto in first meeting, and Raptors have covered just 2 of last 10 games through Jan. 8, including losing their last 3 SU at home, as team still misses PG T.J. Ford.

PORTLAND 100 - *Toronto 90 RATING - 10



DUKE over Virginia...Duke in a bit of a reloading mode TY, but you can be sure Blue Devils will be fired up for their ACC opener, especially after suffering bitter 68-66 OT loss at Virginia in the two teams' only meeting LY. More importantly, Duke has the Gs in number to throw at the Cavalier main man--6-0 sr. Sean Singletary (18 ppg, 6.8 apg). The rest of the UVa backcourt lacks experience and proven scoring ability, especially in hostile environs. Yes, 6-8 Blue Devil superfrosh Kyle Singler (13 ppg, 6.2 rpg) must stay out of foul trouble. But Duke's shooters and defenders--urged on by the "Cameron Crazies"--should have the Cavs playing catch-up from early on.

*DUKE 81 - Virginia 59 RATING - 10


Monday,

January 14
UTAH over Milwaukee (NBA)...Situation beginning to deteriorate rapidly in Milwaukee, where league sources say Bucks might be willing to make everyone except Andrew Bogut and Yi Jianlian available at trade deadline. And though HC Larry Krystowiak expected to be safe for the time being, all indicators are that exasperated owner Herb Kohl is ready to make GM Larry Harris (to whom Kohl apparently isn't speaking these days) the first scapegoat in expected front office purge. Utah a bit up-and-down lately, but Jazz still respectable 9-5 as Salt Lake City chalk thru Jan. 7.

*UTAH 113 - Milwaukee 92 RATING - 10


Tuesday,

January 15
*BAYLOR over Oklahoma State...Buoyed by a strong preconference showing--including upsets vs. Notre Dame & South Carolina (in Columbia)--have faith rising 11-2 Baylor can cover smallish number vs. "roadworrier" OSU, which hasn't won a game as a true visitor in nearly 2 seasons (13 straight losses, 0-2 vs. spread TY). Bears superbly-balanced attack (6 avg. between 10 & 15 ppg), bolstered by recruiting gem, 6-4 frosh G Dunn (12 ppg, 2.4 treys pg at 47%!), should keep up their high-scoring ways (82 ppg) vs. Cowboy squad near cellar of Big XII in scoring & FG% defense. Undervalued Baylor 11-3 vs. spread last 14 (through January 7).

*BAYLOR 85 - Oklahoma State 72 RATING - 10


Wednesday,

January 16
*IOWA over Purdue...With Iowa probably winless in Big Ten play after facing early quartet of conf. powers (combined 47-7 SU!), willing to support hungry Hawkeyes, who've registered a 15-2 SU mark at home in Big Ten last 2+ seasons (prior to Michigan State Jan. 12). Iowa's potent G duo of J. Johnson (16 ppg, 40% treys) & now-healthy Freeman (12 ppg, 4 apg; missed 1st 10 games due to broken foot) should burn inexperienced Purdue, ranked near bottom of Big 10 in two major defensive categories (FG & 3-pt.%). And Iowa's new HC Todd Lickliter figures to have good gameplan after defeating Boilers, 68-65, as Butler head honcho LY.

*IOWA 69 - Purdue 59 RATING - 10



TULANE over *Tulsa...Torrid Tulane (7-1 SU last 8 thru Jan. 8) ready to make some noise in C-USA, uplifted by 3 preconference upsets (including 1st win vs. LSU in 27 yrs.!). So, will gladly take any available points vs. Tulsa squad that lacks a true PG after soph playmaker M. Hill left early in campaign. Contrarily, Green Wave's gritty, 5-10 soph distributor Sims (13 ppg, 4 apg, 2 spg) has become a superb floor leader, while dependable 6-7, 240 sr. F Gomez (13 ppg, 6 rpg,) & emerging 6-7, 260 jr. F Louisme (11 ppg, 6 rpg) will be "double-trouble" in paint for G-driven Golden Hurricane.

TULANE 78 - *Tulsa 68 RATING - 11