NEWSLETTERS 11/20 - 11/25

[Senor Capper]

THE GOLDSHEET

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Green Bay 26 - DETROIT 17--Can history of 45 years ago repeat itself, when Detroit exposed a then-undefeated, Vince Lombardi G.B. team as mere mortals in a 26-14 Thanksgiving win? Well, unless Alex Karras, Roger Brown, Darris McCord, and Joe Schmidt are willing to put on the pads and harass Brett Favre as they did Bart Starr (12 sacks!) in '62, we're not sure. With Lions gaining only a few inches per carry the last two weeks, doubt Detroit can exploit recent Pack softness vs. run. Emergence of ex-Domer RB Ryan Grant completing the hot Packers' (13-1 SU last 14; 11-2-1 vs. spread) offensive puzzle. TV-FOX

(06-G. Bay 31-DET. 24...D.23-18 D.23/105 G.27/60 G.25/36/0/340 D.25/40/1/319 G.2 D.0)

(06-G. BAY 17-Det. 9...G.19-10 G.32/139 D.20/58 G.20/37/3/164 D.16/26/2/84 G.1 D.1)

(06-Green Bay +6' 31-24, GREEN BAY -5' 17-9...SR: Green Bay 84-64-7)

DALLAS 37 - NY Jets 16--Yes, N.Y. "dug in" last week, catching the high-flying Steelers a bit unaware. But now that the Jets are back out on the road, on short rest, vs. the volatile Dallas attack, doubt they can handle the "Romo to T.O. Show," which has now produced 12 TD connections this season. Cowboys (9-1 SU, 7-3 vs. spread; 8-2 "over") having lots of fun, while 2-8 N.Y. investing in the future with QB Clemens and trying to hold on in 2007 the best they can. TV--CBS

(03-Dallas +3 17-6...SR: Dallas 6-2)

*Indianapolis 26 - ATLANTA 10--The presence of Byron Leftwich (3 sacks, 2 ints., 2 fumbles last week) or Joey Harrington in this game is akin to George Chuvalo subbing for Joe Frazier in the Thrilla in Manila, as the NFL Network originally envisioned this as a marquee matchup between Peyton Manning & Michael Vick. So it goes. Expect a lower-scoring affair, especially with Indy "O" slumping and Marvin Harrison's status still a ?, and with Colt defense now the premier platoon on field. "Unders" prevalent lately both ways (Indy "under" 10-4 last 14; Atl. "under" 18-7-1 since LY). TV--NFL NETWORK

(03-INDIANAPOLIS -7' 38-7...SR: Indianapolis 12-1)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Denver 20 - CHICAGO 17--With the Bears just as inconsistent on defense, at RB, and in their OL as they are at QB, will side with quicker Denver, which is capable of throwing some speedy pass rushers and tight coverage at Rex Grossman (will Lovie turn back to Griese?). Even with its own myriad problems, young Broncos now have lots of valuable experience, with several (DE Dumervil, WR Marshall) becoming solid contributors. (03-Chicago +10' 19-10...SR: EVEN 6-6)

Tennessee 27 - CINCINNATI 20--Because Tennessee takes its rushing game (No. 4 in NFL prior to Monday nighter in Denver) and defense (No. 2) on the road, Titans have become a "tough out" as a visitor (6-1 last 7 SU prior to Bronco game). And defense is certainly not the strong suit of the banged-up Bengals (31st overall; 27th vs. the run thru Week 10). Carson Palmer, betrayed by his OL & RBs, suffered four ints. last week. Vince Young (only 4 TDP, but 10 ints. prior to MNF) struggling somewhat, but note Cincy only 1-8 last 9 if home dog.

(05-Cincinnati -3 31-23...SR: Tennessee 38-31-1)

JACKSONVILLE 16 - Buffalo 13--David Garrard returned with success last week vs. S.D., with two TDP, no sacks, and no interceptions (none for season so far). Meanwhile, the Bills got seriously killed to death by the Pats last week. But, given the nature of the NFL, no surprise to see them put up a stubborn performance, especially if Marshawn Lynch (751 YR) back from sprained ankle. Bills 14-5 last 19 as dog.

(06-BUF. 27-Jack. 24...J.19-13 J.35/207 B.23/72 B.21/28/1/169 J.16/22/0/116 B.0 J.1)

(06-BUFFALO +3 27-24...SR: Buffalo 4-3)

Oakland 19 - KANSAS CITY 13--There aren't many teams against whom Oakland enjoys a QB edge these days. But with Brodie Croyle virtually getting the job by default in K.C., this might be one of those spots. Daunte Culpepper showed there's plenty of life left in his arm at Minnesota (344 YP), while Justin Fargas (578 YR in 2007) adding speed on the ground. Chiefs' complementary weapons not inspiring much confidence these days, especially with Larry Johnson still hurting and Priest Holmes not the same RB he was a few years ago. PK Janikowski (5 FGs last week) the Raiders' best weapon lately, but that's enough to get Oakland over the hump in this one.

(07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1)

(06-K. CITY 17-Oak. 13...K.21-18 K.37/200 O.34/133 O.15/25/1/193 K.9/16/0/92 K.0 O.0)

(06-K. City 20-OAK. 9...K.19-18 K.38/150 O.24/112 O.27/37/2/195 K.12/24/1/142 K.0 O.3)

(07-K. City +2' 12-10; 06-K. CITY -9 17-13, K. City -7 20-9...SR: Kansas City 52-43-2)

Houston 34 - CLEVELAND 27--Before going any further, must note that Cleveland has gone "over" 9-0-1 in '07! And with Matt Schaub back at the controls for Houston, we'll get the "over" recommendation out of the way first. But Browns also going "over" because of numerous defensive shortcomings, with rush "D" a season-long sieve and DL unable to generate any consistent pressure on opposing QBs (Cleve. 29th in sacks), such that even stagnant Ravens exploited them last week. With Schaub and star WR Andre Johnson (73-yard TDC vs. Saints) back in the lineup, Texan offense can strike vertically.

(06-HOU. 14-Cleve. 6...C.19-11 C.28/127 H.26/94 C.25/34/1/179 H.9/15/1/83 H.0 C.2)

(06-HOUSTON -5 14-6...SR: EVEN 2-2)

Seattle 23 - ST. LOUIS 16--Seattle's Oct. 21 home victory over the injury-depleted St. Louis was a virtual walkover, with Seahawks collecting 7 sacks and 5 takeaways. Yes, Rams have recorded back-to-back road wins, but over fading New Orleans and the punchless 49ers. Meanwhile, Seattle QB Hasselbeck (337 YP) was intellectually near the top of his game last week vs. the Bears, and the quickness of RB Maurice Morris (87 YR) a welcome addition. Seahawk WR corps back intact, while St. Louis (6 sacks last week) still crippled up front on offense.

(07-SEA. 33-St. Lou. 6...Se.19-15 Se.32/100 St.17/53 Se.18/35/1/189 St.21/40/3/168 Se.0 St.2)

(06-Sea. 30-ST. LOU. 28...St.21-20 Se.28/125 St.22/59 St.26/39/1/309 Se.19/34/0/239 Se.1 St.1)

(06-SEA. 24-St. Lou. 22...Se.19-18 Se.26/160 St.20/108 St.26/40/1/191 Se.15/23/0/123 Se.2 St.0)

(07-SEATTLE -8 33-6; 06-Seattle -3 30-28, SEATTLE -3' 24-22...SR: St. Louis 10-9)

NY GIANTS 24 - Minnesota 13--With veteran Chester Taylor (career-best 164 YR vs. Oakland) available, Minny would be foolish to rush prize property Adrian Peterson and his sprained knee ligament back into action. But the minimal QBing of the Vikes (53% completions, only 5 TDP) is likely to leave them vulnerable to the N.Y. pass rushers (34 sacks). And pass defense has been Minnesota's weakness for two years. Can Eli Manning avoid the second-half-of-the-season slips that have hampered the Giants' in recent years? (05-Minnesota +9 24-21...SR: Minnesota 11-10)

New Orleans 27 - CAROLINA 20--The Panthers are mysteriously frustrating their fans TY, going 0-4 SU & vs. the spread in Charlotte. Can Vinny Testaverde (recently turned 44) or sore-spined David Carr snap them out of that slump vs. revenged-minded N.O. and its quick-hitting passing attack? Such is not likely, especially with WR Steve Smith (out last week due to shin injury) sidelined and Julius Peppers (only 2? sacks) having virtually disappeared from NFL highlights TY. Erratic Saints & Drew Brees likely to produce more points.

(07-Car. 16-N. ORL. 13...N.23-12 N.28/89 C.28/88 N.29/47/2/252 C.11/19/1/155 C.0 N.0)

(06-CAR. 21-N. Orl. 18...N.22-20 C.29/167 N.23/63 N.28/38/0/344 C.19/29/0/157 C.0 N.1)

(06-Car. 31-N. ORL. 21...C.20-13 C.33/106 N.17/61 N.20/29/1/236 C.23/27/0/207 C.0 N.1)

(07-Carolina +3 16-13; 06-CAROLINA -7 21-18, Carolina -3 31-21...SR: Carolina 15-10)

Washington 16 - TAMPA BAY 14--Buccaneers improved, but their close-to-the-vest offense should play right into the hands of Washington, which usually doesn't mind grind-'em-out affairs. Emerging QB Jason Campbell has more quality targets (WRs Moss, Randle El & McCardell, and H-back Cooley) than does T.B.'s Garcia. With some new quickness on the Bucs' defense, T.B. has gone "under" 10 of last 15 overall.

(06-T. BAY 20-Wash. 17...T.19-15 T.42/181 W.20/64 W.19/34/0/188 T.14/21/1/178 T.1 W.1)

(06-TAMPA BAY -3 20-17...SR: EVEN 8-8)

UNDER THE TOTAL ARIZONA 22 - San Francisco 6--Even with the "price" rising, only one way to go with the side here until S.F. (0-8 SU, 1-7 vs. spread last 8) can find some punch. That's not likely to happen vs. 2007 NFC West nouveau contender Arizona (3-1 SU & vs. spread at home TY), which is enjoying being in the race. 49er defense (6 sacks last week) still hustling, but S.F. scoring just 9 ppg its last 8. Kurt Warner more careful in HC Whisenhunt's offense, which is keeping defenses honest with the run.

(07-S. FRAN. 20-Ariz. 17...A.20-16 A.38/161 S.22/92 S.15/31/0/102 A.14/28/2/100 S.1 A.0)

(06-ARIZ. 34-S. Fran. 27...A.23-19 S.18/107 A.29/84 S.23/40/0/286 A.23/37/0/283 A.1 S.2)

(06-Ariz. 26-S. FRAN. 20...A.21-14 A.41/123 S.12/49 A.18/26/0/249 S.18/29/1/174 A.1 S.1)

(07-S. FRAN. -3 20-17; 06-ARIZONA -8' 34-27, Arizona +4 26-20...SR: San Francisco 18-14)

SAN DIEGO 27 - Baltimore 12--Despite their many 2007 disappointments, the Norv Turner Chargers have been a formidable home team (4-1 vs. the spread). Meanwhile, the Ravens have fought hard this year, but not particularly well (1-9 vs. the spread!). Subbing for Steve McNair last week, Kyle Boller suffered 6 sacks, 1 fumble, and 2 ints., one of them returned for a 100-yard TD! That means Shawne Merriman (5? sacks) and CB Antonio Cromartie (6 ints.) will be licking their chops.

(06-BALT. 16-S. Diego 13...B.14-13 S.41/150 B.21/56 B.17/30/2/150 S.13/23/1/134 B.1 S.0)

(06-BALTIMORE +2 16-13...SR: Baltimore 3-2)

*NEW ENGLAND 45 - Philadelphia 17--Rematch of the Super Bowl three seasons ago. However, with T.O. having taken his act to Dallas and Donovan McNabb (check ankle injury) in decline, it's tough to expect Philly to keep pace with the loaded 2007 Patriots, especially with Randy Moss (16 TDC) having turned into a dynamic model citizen and the inordinately precise Tom Brady (38 TDs, only 4 ints.!) apparently on the all-time QB roll. They again please their N.E. fans while the Pats' LBs keep Brian Westbrook well under control. TV--NBC

(04-N. Eng. -7 24-21 (Super Bowl XXXIX at Jacksonville)...SR: Philadelphia 6-4)

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26

*PITTSBURGH 35 - Miami 10--Willie Parker (925 YR) is making no secret of the fact he's after the rushing title now that Adrian Peterson's injury has opened the door. And Ben Roethlisberger (23 TDs, only 8 ints.) is close to his Super Bowl form after LY's injuries. The Dolphins might activate Ricky Williams for this game. But Williams or no, rookie QB John Beck is likely to be plenty mystified by Pittsburgh's array of zone blitzes. Just a couple of turnovers might help the Steelers (4-1 vs. the spread at home) bounce back with a vengeance after last week's "soft" performance visiting the Jets. CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-PITT 28-Miami 17...P.20-15 P.38/143 M.18/38 M.18/37/2/240 P.15/25/0/196 P.1 M.0)

(06-PITTSBURGH -1 28-17...SR: Miami 11-10)





MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

Miami and Pittsburgh on Monday Night

Miami is 6-15 straight-up and 9-11-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
32-17 straight-up and 29-20 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.

Pittsburgh is 21-5 straight-up and 19-7 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
13-17 straight-up and 15-14-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.






NFL KEY RELEASES



OAKLAND by 6 over Kansas City

HOUSTON by 7 over Cleveland- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the San Francisco-Arizona game

 

[Senor Capper]

College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES


Home team in CAPS. *?indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P?Pick Game. SR?Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL?No Line. OPR?Average Opponents? Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().

Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC?Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). ?O??Offense. ?D??Defense. DDs?Double Digits. OL?Offensive Line or Lineman. DL?Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.?Offensive Coordinator. d.c.?Defensive Coordinator. YR?Yards Rushing. YP?Yards Passing. recs.?Receptions. ints.?Interceptions. STs?Special Teams. ypg?Yards per Game. ppg?Points per Game. ypc?Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY?Last Year. TY?This Year. Y?Year or Years. TDP?Touchdown Passes. FA?Free Agent. SU?Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.



THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22

*ARZIONA STATE 24 - Southern Cal 20--Acknowledge Pete Carroll's 22-0 SU record in November since taking over at SC in '01. But by this stage of campaign, we've seen enough of this Trojan edition not to compare it with the high-powered Palmer/Leinart/Bush offensive machines from earlier in decade (Troy has exceeded 27 points just once in last 7 games). If anything, ASU's efforts more impressive this season, and as long as QB Carpenter's sore thumb properly healed after "bye" week, Sun Devils get closer to coveted BCS berth. CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-S. CAL 28-Ariz. St. 21...S.18-13 S.36/159 A.33/121 S.12/25/1/148 A.12/21/0/124 S.1 A.1)

(06-USC -19 28-21 05-Usc -15 38-28 04-USC -10' 45-7...SR: Southern Cal 14-9)

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23

Central Michigan 27 - AKRON 16--CMU has a significant QB edge, as Chips' Dan LeFevour is 9th in the country in total offense, while Zip counterpart Chris Jaquemain has completed just 39% in his last 4 games with 7 ints. & just 4 TD passes. CMU HC Butch Jones undoubtedly would like his team to get back on winning track in preparation for upcoming MAC title game against Miami-Ohio. Unless Jaquemain comes up with an aberrational performance, CMU wins with relative ease. CABLE TV--ESPNU

(06-C. MICH. 24-Akron 21...A.24-16 C.36/129 A.31/61 A.25/46/3/375 C.16/23/1/162 C.1 A.0)

(06-CENTRAL MICH. +1 24-21 05-Central Mich. +10' 31-17...SR: Central Michigan 11-9-1)

COLORADO 37 - Nebraska 27--After jr. backup QB Joe Ganz led 7-TDP, 702-yard, 73-point explosion for Nebraska vs. K-State, NU offense brimming with confidence. It must be noted, however, that the thin, rebuilding Husker defense is giving up a lofty 35.5 ppg, 8 points more than host Colorado. Both teams are 5-6 and need this one for bowl eligibility. In that case, will favor the better defense, chemistry, creativity and kicking game of Buffaloes, who have often been at their best in recent years vs. their rivals from Lincoln. REGIONAL TV--ABC

(06-NEB. 37-Colo. 14...N.24-14 N.46/190 C.31/166 N.20/30/0/278 C.11/23/0/131 N.2 C.0)

(06-NEB. -14 37-14 05-Neb. +16 30-3 04-Colo. +2' 26-20...SR: Nebraska 46-17-2)

MISSISSIPPI STATE 35 - Mississippi 21--In the "Egg Bowl," prefer to lay single digits with resurgent, bowl-bound MSU squad that had season-high 501 yds. in 45-31 setback at Arkansas. With Bulldogs emerging frosh QB Carroll (421 YP, but 4 ints. vs. Hogs) cleaning up his mistakes, look for coming State attack to repeatedly burn talent-shy Ole Miss defense (last in SEC in scoring & rush "D"). Meanwhile, floundering Rebels in danger of 1st winless SEC season since '92, and embroiled HC Orgeron's late-season QB shuffling not a positive.

(06-MISS. 20-Miss. St. 17...S.19-10 S.35/152 U.27/58 S.16/34/1/162 U.10/23/0/142 U.0 S.0)

(06-MISS. -3 20-17 05-MSU +2 35-14 04-MISS. -5' 20-3...SR: Mississippi 59-38-6)

COLORADO STATE 26 - Wyoming 17--Perhaps intense border rivalry vs. hated foe will provide jolt that stumbling Wyo (0-7-1 vs. line last 8 TY) has been missing since September. Then again, maybe it won't. CSU at least playing hard down stretch, with RB G. Johnson (5.5 ypc L6 games) emerging as a force. And possible huge emotional effort could be forthcoming from Rams if this is beloved HC Sonny Lubick's last game (pending retirement rumors rife in Rockies).

(06-WYO. 24-Colo. St. 0...W.15-12 W.39/166 C.22/42 C.23/45/2/217 W.10/22/0/152 W.0 C.1)

(06-WYO. -4 24-0 05-CSU -3' 39-31 04-CSU -4' 30-7...SR: Colorado State 53-40-5)

BOWLING GREEN 41 - Toledo 28--Realize it's a dicey play to back BG at Doyt Perry Stadium, where the Falcons had dropped 9 straight spread decisions until whipping Akron 44-20 Nov. 2. However, Falcon QB Sheehan (64%, 20 TD passes) and his array of weapons (WR Barnes 72 catches; "slash" back Turner 250 YR, 4 TDs rushing, 2 TD passes & 13 recs. last 3 games) will do a lot of damage facing Toledo defense yielding the most points in the country. CABLE TV--ESPNU

(06-TOLEDO 31-B. Green 21...B.20-16 T.47/208 B.31/76 B.24/42/1/246 T.10/13/0/107 T.0 B.0)

(06-TOL. -6' 31-21 05-Tol. +6' 44-41 (OT) 04-TOL. +4' 49-41...SR: Bowling Green 36-31-4)

LSU 34 - Arkansas 27--Now that Arkansas QB Dick (career-best 14 of 17 & 4 TDP vs. Miss. St.) is finally able to take some pressure off future NFL 1st-rounder RB McFadden (1519 YR, 5.6 ypc), capable 7-4 Hogs able to hang inside number vs. top-ranked LSU, which is a money-burnin' 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as SEC host (0-3 TY). Arkansas fighting especially hard for embattled, well-liked HC Nutt, while top-ranked LSU compelled to stay healthy with SEC title game on horizon. Remember, McFadden rambled for 182 YR without much help from Dick (an ugly 3 of 17 passing) in competitive 31-26 series loss LY. Take. TV--CBS

(06-Lsu 31-ARK. 26...A.16-15 A.39/298 L.36/118 L.14/22/0/210 A.5/20/1/62 L.2 A.0)

(06-Lsu -1' 31-26 at LR 05-LSU -17 19-17 04-Lsu -3' 43-14 at LR...SR: LSU 34-17-2)

Texas 25 - TEXAS A&M 23--Last game for Dennis Franchione in College Station? The events of last week mean a Texas win keeps the Longhorns alive in the Big XII South. Colt McCoy is seeking redemption after he played hurt in LY's game and tossed 3 interceptions. And the speedy Jamaal Charles has ignited the UT ground assault with 644 YR in just the last three games. But Longhorns not a dominating team TY, and A&M option QB McGee has developed his passing in recent games. The Aggie defense has seen six spread-option attacks TY (although it has often left plenty to be desired). REG. TV--ABC

(06-Tex. A&M 12-TEXAS 7...A.17-16 A.51/244 U.25/70 U.17/29/4/160 A.7/13/0/58 A.1 U.0)

(06-Tam +13' 12-7 05-Texas -28 40-29 04-TEXAS -10' 26-13...SR: Texas 73-35-5)

*Boise State 40 - HAWAII 33--In a rare WAC showdown with BCS implications, Boise (which has outside BCS hopes of its own) certainly won't be lacking for confidence after beating Hawaii last 6 meetings! And conference scouts remain a bit skeptical about veteran Warrior "D" that has lacked some of the edge under 1st-year d.c. McMackin it played with under Jerry Glanville the last few years. Even with Colt Brennan available for June Jones' Red Gun, red-hot Bronco QB Tharp (27 TDP) and host of Boise weapons capable of surviving another expected shootout. CABLE TV--ESPN2

(06-BOISE ST. 41-Hawaii 34...B.26-24 B.44/242 H.18/88 H.25/37/1/388 B.17/29/1/273 B.0 H.2)

(06-BSU -14' 41-34 05-Bsu -10' 44-41 04-BSU -22' 69-3...SR: Boise State 6-2)

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 24

South Florida 28 - PITTSBURGH 13--Panthers have been righteous dog TY, covering 4 of 5 when getting points. But compelled to back profitable Bulls (13-6 vs. spread last 19 on board). Touted frosh RB Ford (274 YR & 4 TDs last 2 games; originally signed with Alabama) giving versatile soph QB Grothe greater ground support recently. Conversely, Pitt frosh RB McCoy unlikely to make much headway against soph DE Selvie (nation-leading 30? tackles for loss!) & speedy South Florida defense.

(06-S. FLA. 22-Pitt 12...S.18-12 S.48/190 P.23/55 S.20/26/2/187 P.11/23/3/159 S.2 P.0)

(06-USF +4' 22-12 05-PITT -1' 31-17 04-Pitt -6' 43-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)

WEST VIRGINIA 31 - Connecticut 19--Mountaineers own inside track to Big East title and have been climbing back up BCS rankings since early loss at South Florida. Doubt they'll be derailed at Morgantown. But no big surprise if visiting Huskies (covered 7 of last 8) able to hang inside roomy impost. They have a productive rushing attack & an underrated defense, and well-coached UConn (only 11 turnovers TY) takes care of rock.

(06-West Va. 37-CONN. 11...17-17 W.42/263 C.33/95 W.9/14/1/156 C.15/34/2/115 W.1 C.0)

(06-Wva -23 37-11 05-WVA -15 45-13 04-Wva -6' 31-19...SR: West Virginia 3-0)

UCF 52 - Utep 24--Sure, Miners have some offensive firepower. But not nearly enough to compensate for their awful defense. Plummeting UTEP has lost 5 straight (1-4 vs. spread), permitting 45 ppg during that recent tailspin. A berth in C-USA title game is within Knights' grasp. They'll ride star jr. TB Kevin Smith (1945 YR & league-record 25 TDs) to easy win. (FIRST MEETING)

Missouri 34 - Kansas 31--Remarkable Kansas (11-0 SU, 10-0 vs. the spread) is on the verge of pointspread history with its season-long run. But Missouri (10-1 & 8-2) is not far behind. And the Tigers have played the tougher schedule, with jr. QB Daniel (69.3%, 30 TDs, 9 ints.) more battle-tested than Jayhawks' confident soph Reesing (63.3%, 30 TDs, 4 ints.). KU's RB McAnderson (514 YR last 4 games) is the most powerful force on the field, but Mizzou WR/KR Maclin (3 return TDs; 16 TDs overall) is the most dynamic. The Jayhawks have CB Talib and hold some statistical edges (scoring defense, TO margin, etc.), but Daniel's greater experience under pressure could be the key. (at Kansas City, MO)

(06-MO. 42-Kansas 17...M.27-14 K.29/160 M.37/137 M.26/38/0/356 K.12/23/1/162 M.0 K.1)

(06-MO. -7' 42-17 05-KANSAS +5 13-3 04-Kansas +11 31-14...SR: EVEN 53-53-9)

NORTH CAROLINA 33 - Duke 24--Blue Devils (dropped last 5 vs. spread) wrapping up another miserable campaign. There's a lot more optimism in Chapel Hill, and Butch Davis should lead his young Tar Heels to a 4th straight victory in series. But there are enough holes in UNC 2ndary for Duke QB Lewis (19 TDP) to go down firing.

(06-N. Car. 45-DUKE 44...N.18-16 N.32/200 D.27/103 D.21/36/2/291 N.20/31/1/253 N.2 D.0)

(06-Unc -7 45-44 05-UNC -21' 24-21 04-Unc -6' 40-17...SR: North Carolina 54-35-4)

VANDERBILT 26 - Wake Forest 21--Although Commodores off painful, come-from-ahead 25-24 loss at Tennessee (Vandy was outscored 16-0 in 4th), still favor highly-motivated 'Dores, who'll become bowl eligible with their 1st-non losing season since '82 with victory here. WF has defeated only defenseless Duke and Navy on road TY, and doubt Deacons clever field general Skinner will find his mojo vs. an aggressive, seasoned Vandy defense (only 19 ppg in last 5 home games) that disguises its schemes well.

(05-Vanderbilt +8' 24-20...SR: Vanderbilt 7-3)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20 - Maryland 13--Winner likely headed to minor bowl, while loser will miss out on postseason. Maryland (fewer than 100 YR in 3 of last 4) having a hard time establishing ground game behind its paper-thin OL. A measured vote to N.C. State & versatile soph RB Eugene, although poor decisions by volatile jr. QB Evans (2 TDP, 5 ints. in last 2 games) could prove Wolfpack's undoing.

(06-MARY. 26-Ncsu 20...N.17-11 M.41/165 N.38/154 N.15/26/2/145 M.7/9/0/115 M.1 N.1)

(06-MARY. -2 26-20 05-NCS -3 20-14 04-Ncs +2' 13-3...SR: North Carolina St. 30-29-4)

Cincinnati 37 - SYRACUSE 10--First-year Bearcat HC Brian Kelly a pointspread dynamo, going 25-7-3 against line last 2+ seasons at C. Michigan & Cincy. Hard-pressed to come up with compelling reasons to support Syracuse & its floundering West Coast attack, which hasn't produced more than 2 TDs in any of last 7 games. Not much home-field edge for Orange at Carrier Dome these days.

(06-CINCY 17-Syr. 3...C.16-12 C.42/147 S.31/61 C.13/18/2/205 S.13/29/0/119 C.0 S.0)

(06-CINCY -6' 17-3 05-Cincy +5' 22-16 04-SYR. +2' 19-7...SR: Syracuse 4-3)

SOUTH CAROLINA 24 - Clemson 23--Now that deflated Clemson has been knocked out of ACC title game with last-minute 20-17 home upset loss vs. Boston College, recommend rested, 6-5 South Carolina, whose clever mentor Spurrier has had extra time to scheme. Like '06, 'Cocks 6-3 sr. QB Mitchell (290+ YP last 4 starts) has been steady since returning from bench. Tigers' productive triggerman Harper won't easily find open targets vs. Carolina 2ndary (SEC-best 163 ypg; 54%, 13 ints.). Also, kicking edge goes to Cocks' strong-legged PK/P Succop (29 of 37 FGs L1+Ys; 42-yd. avg.).

(06-S. Car. 31-CLEM. 28...S.28-15 S.35/208 C.33/181 S.24/37/3/284 C.13/19/1/191 S.1 C.1)

(06-Usc +5' 31-28 05-Clem. -3 13-9 04-CLEM. -3 29-7...SR: Clemson 63-37-2)

Buffalo 27 - KENT STATE 19--Kent State 4th-team QB Jon Brown last week showed why he was buried on depth chart, completing just 11 of 27 passes with 0 TDs and 4 ints. at Temple. Conversely, Buffalo QB Drew Willy has completed 67% this season, and Bulls are significantly improved on defense and special teams in upwardly-mobile HC Turner Gill's second (and last?) season in Buffalo. Flash ace RB Eugene Jarvis was held to just 57 YR last week, as now defenses can stack to contain the jitterbug Jarvis as a result of Brown's passing problems.

(06-BUF. 41-Kent St. 14...K.16-15 B.34/176 K.34/103 K.18/34/2/195 B.14/20/1/193 B.1 K.3)

(06-BUF. +15' 41-14 05-Buf. +7 10-6 04-Ksu -8 33-7...SR: Kent State 8-7)

EAST CAROLINA 39 - Tulane 23--Green Wave RB Matt Forte powered for another 194 yards and 5 TDs (now up to 2007 YR & 22) last week vs. defenseless Rice. But ECU (allowing 3.95 ypc) is bigger and tougher up front than the Owls, and the offensively better-balanced Pirates were scoring 42 ppg in C-USA games TY until uncharacteristic 26-7 road loss at Marshall two weeks ago. (04-EAST CAROLINA -3' 27-25...SR: East Carolina 6-2)

Tennessee 37 - KENTUCKY 28--Since SEC East frontrunner UT (wins tie-breaker with UGA) managed to escape in 25-24 come-back thriller vs. Vandy, expect error-free Vols (SEC-low 12 giveaways) to extend their 22-game win streak vs. Kentucky squad that has dropped 3 of last 4. UT's highly-efficient,untouched sr. QB Ainge (sacked only thrice in 391 attempts, 65%, 20 TDs, 5 ints.) makes a few more big plays than Wildcats slipping star passer Woodson, who failed to generate a TD in final 3 Qs of disappointing 24-13 setback at Georgia.

(06-TENN. 17-Ky. 12...K.24-23 K.30/128 T.34/96 K.26/39/0/282 T.19/33/0/240 T.1 K.0)

(06-TENN. -20' 17-12 05-Tenn. -9 27-8 04-TENN. -23' 37-31...SR: Tennessee 70-23-9)

OHIO 31 - Miami-Ohio 17--Rested Ohio U. and sr. star RB Kalvin McRae (162 ypg rushing & 11 rush TDs last 5 games; career 4286 YR & 48 TDs) should be highly motivated in final game at Peden Stadium. Bobcats will say goodbye to 17 seniors (14 in two-deep) against rival Miami-O. squad that has its spot in MAC Championship all locked up. RedHawk offense doesn't convert yards into points as well as it should (107th in scoring at 19 ppg), and QB Daniel Raudabaugh is coming off a 3-int. game in unimpressive 7-0 win at home against Akron. Bobcat seniors secure 6th victory & gain bowl-eligibility.

(06-Ohio 34-MIAMI-O. 24...M.19-16 O.44/304 M.26/128 M.20/36/1/180 O.10/17/1/133 O.2 M.2)

(06-Ohio -3 34-24 05-Miami -9 38-7 04-MIAMI -19 40-20...SR: Miami-Ohio 51-30-2)

Utah 25 - BYU 22--Annual "Beehive Boot" battles (last two decided on final play!) even more exciting to locals than Oprah's recent Osmonds reunion show. And slight edge to hot Utah (covered last 6 TY), thanks to better-balanced "O," playmaking QB B. Johnson, and "D" that's allowed just one TD (and that came after a TO vs. New Mexico) in last 14 Qs of play. Well-defined series trends (dog 9-1 last 10; visitor 12-3 last 15) further support Ute argument.

(06-Byu 33-UTAH 31...B.27-26 U.33/98 B.24/54 U.25/41/0/376 B.28/44/0/375 B.0 U.0)

(06-Byu -3' 33-31 05-Utah +10 41-34 (OT) 04-UTAH -20 52-21...SR: Utah 49-29-4)

MEMPHIS 37 - Smu 22--Jelling Memphis (won & covered 4 of last 5) headed to minor bowl, while 1-10 SMU just playing out string for lame-duck HC Phil Bennett. In their final home game, Tigers' trigger-happy sr. QB Hankins (1771 YP in last 5 games) & sr. RB Doss (168 YR last week) will go out with a bang against pliable Pony defense that's yielding nearly 300 ypg passing & more than 5 ypc. (DNP...SR: Memphis 1-0)

Tulsa 38 - RICE 36--Visiting Golden Hurricane looking to sew up spot in C-USA title game. Rice's defense might be too weak to keep former mentor Graham from achieving that goal. But without a reliable ground hammer to complement star sr. QB Paul Smith (3886 YP & 34 TDP!), tough for visiting Tulsa to keep Owl QB Clement (18 TDP & 6 rush scores in just last 5 games) from trading points.

(06-Rice 41-TULSA 38 (OT)...T.26-18 T.52/260 R.33/147 T.17/29/1/308 R.14/37/0/209 R.0 T.3)

(06-Rice +14 41-38 (OT) 05-Tulsa -7 41-21 04-TULSA +1 39-22...SR: Rice 7-4-1)

UCLA 24 - Oregon 23--Not sure that UCLA can do enough to save Karl Dorrell's job if skittery 4th-string QB Rashaan at controls. But Bruins have displayed a circle-the-wagons mentality in recent years, especially at Rose Bowl, where they're 18-5 vs. number last 23 and unbeaten vs. line last 5 as dog. Oregon "O" just not the same with Brady Leaf in at QB for the injured Dennis Dixon, and not interested laying any points with Ducks after their national title dreams evaporated in Tucson.

(06-OREGON 30-Ucla 20...O.21-17 O.43/256 U.30/104 O.11/22/1/148 U.16/31/1/112 O.1 U.0)

(06-OREGON -9' 30-20 04-Ucla +7 34-26...SR: UCLA 38-22)

AUBURN 20 - Alabama 19--Now that number rising following Bama's shocking 21-14 home loss vs. UL Monroe, will take inflated price with angry, embarrassed, ridiculed Tide squad itchin' to end 5-game series losing streak. Auburn QB Cox's self-confidence waning again (4 ints. vs. Georgia; SEC-low 9 TDP), and his run-oriented, undynamic attack (24 pts. or fewer in 12 of past 13 vs. BCS conference foes) won't uncharacteristically erupt vs. a fired-up Bama defense. If Tide's usually-effective QB J.P. Wilson maintains his poise, Saban's squad hangs close again (all 5 losses TY by TD or fewer). Bama 8-2-2 as TD+ road dog since '97. REGIONAL TV--ABC

(06-Auburn 22-ALABAMA 15...Al.18-14 Au.40/124 Al.30/112 Al.18/33/1/252 Au.6/14/0/137 Au.1 Al.3)

(06-Auburn -3 22-15 05-AUBURN -7 28-18 04-Auburn -10' 21-13...SR: Alabama 38-32-1)

Georgia 30 - GEORGIA TECH 14--Lack of success against despised Georgia, which has captured last 6 in series, a major reason why Tech HC Chan Gailey on tenterhooks in Atlanta. Will a win save his job? Maybe, but that's easier said than done against burgeoning Bulldogs, who are riding 5-game 2007 win streak. Eager to lay cheap price with UGa's blossoming soph QB Stafford & revelatory RS frosh RB Moreno (766 YR & 9 TDs in last 5 games). Bulldogs won and covered last 3 visits here.

(06-GA. 15-Ga. Tech 12...U.18-12 T.35/146 U.37/84 U.16/29/0/171 T.6/22/2/42 U.1 T.1)

(06-GEORGIA -2' 15-12 05-Georgia -4 14-7 04-GEORGIA -15 19-13...SR: Georgia 58-36-5)

IDAHO 27 - Utah State 20--In the WAC equivalent of a Democratic Presidential debate where only Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel show up, we're tempted to jump on USU bandwagon (such as it is) that's recruiting new riders after Ags broke 16-game losing streak last week. But there are a few more difference-makers (such as RB D. Jackson & CB Franks) on Idaho side.

(06-Idaho 41-UTAH ST. 21...U.22-18 I.35/128 U.35/119 I.10/20/0/188 U.19/27/2/186 I.1 U.1)

(06-Idaho -2' 41-21 05-IDAHO +2 27-13 04-USU -11' 14-7...SR: Idaho 16-15-2)

FLORIDA 42 - Florida State 24--Sure, FSU is a rare DD road dog (1-1 since '97). But believe explosive Florida (43 ppg) eventually covers impost behind super-soph Heisman hopeful Tebow (1st QB in NCAA history with at least 20 TDs both passing & rushing in same season) welcoming back versatile, speedy WR Harvin (45 grabs; missed last 2 games with sinus condition). Conversely, expect 'Noles up-and-down QB Weatherford (3 ints. in '06 tilt) to be on downer in "The Swamp," since his play-action passes rendered mostly ineffective again with stodgy ground attack stymied by UF's run-stuffing front 7 (just 99 ypg, 3.0 ypc).

(06-Fla. 21-FLA. ST. 14...U.16-11 U.32/105 S.18/46 U.21/35/0/283 S.18/43/3/189 U.1 S.0)

(06-Fla. -9 21-14 05-FLA. -4 34-7 04-Fla. +7 20-13...SR: Florida 30-19-2)

OKLAHOMA 37 - Oklahoma State 27--With OU likely needing a win to clinch the Big XII South (unless Texas loses), superior defensive personnel of Sooners should get them there...but not before 60 minutes of "bedlam" have expired. OSU's offense has become unflappable (39 ppg last 5) since 6-3 soph Zac Robinson began executing the Cowboy spread with aplomb. And the OU defense continues to have periodic lapses at inopportune times. Sooners' hopes for a shot at the BCS title game now gone; check status of QB Bradford (concussion).

(06-Okla. 27-OKLA. ST. 21...S.20-19 U.47/238 S.39/119 S.17/31/0/243 U.7/11/0/77 U.0 S.1)

(06-Okla. -5' 27-21 05-OKLA. -19' 42-14 04-Okla. -13' 38-35...SR: Oklahoma 78-15-7)

Nevada 33 - SAN JOSE STATE 27--Be careful before laying too many points with Nevada, which has been involved in a series of hair-raisers in '07. And SJSU a lot more competent at home (8-1 vs. line since LY), where hot QB Tafralis has passed for 300+ yards in all four games TY. But big balance edge owned by Chris Ault's Wolf Pack Pistol, featuring slamming RB Lippincott (5.6 ypc), and Nevada needs win to keep flickering bowl hopes alive.

(06-NEVADA 23-Sjsu 7...N.25-13 N.55/230 S.27/162 N.20/28/1/178 S.10/22/1/77 N.1 S.2)

(06-NEVADA -13 23-7 05-Nevada -3' 30-23 04-NEVADA -14 42-24...SR: Nevada 12-7-2)

Ball State 30 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 23--NIU hasn't quit under vet HC Joe Novak, as young team has covered last two following humiliating 70-pt. defensive "effort" against Toledo. Husky soph RB Justin Anderson has gained 128 ypg rushing in last 9 games, and QB torch has been passed from sr. Dan Nicholson to promising soph Ryan Morris (21 of 35 for 206 YP & 2 TDs last week). Ball State is 13-3 vs. the number last 16 on the road, but only two of those games were double-digit Cardinal wins.

(06-N. Ill. 40-BALL ST. 28...N.24-21 N.41/358 B.26/78 B.29/40/0/307 N.20/27/0/252 N.1 B.1)

(06-Niu -6' 40-28 05-Bsu +29 31-17 04-Niu -20' 38-31 (OT)...SR: Ball State 18-14-2)

*MARSHALL 27 - Uab 19--Don't quite trust Marshall defense (447 ypg; ranks 103rd) to cover double digits against UAB HC Neil Callaway's hard-trying Blazers. Marshall QB Bernard Morris has cooled considerably in second half of season, tossing only 3 TD passes in last 4 games after throwing at least 2 in 6 straight. The previous two meetings in series have both been hotly contested.

(06-Marshall 31-UAB 24...M.21-19 M.46/317 U.28/137 U.18/30/2/205 M.9/12/2/156 M.0 U.0)

(06-Marshall +6 31-24 05-MARSHALL +3 20-19...SR: Marshall 2-0)

FRESNO STATE 31 - Kansas State 25--KSU not exactly rallying down stretch, as ongoing defensive breakdowns (Big XII scouts alarmed at number of missed assignments and improper alignments) contributing mightily to late-season fade. And Fresno good enough to capitalize, especially with "bye" week providing necessary rest that key Bulldog weapons RB R. Matthews & TE Pascoe needed to get back in action. TV-ESPN

(04-Fresno State +12' 45-21...SR: Fresno State 1-0)

NEW MEXICO 23 - Unlv 19--Not sure what to make of UNLV announcement that HC Sanford will return in '08, as Rebs (7th straight loss) didn't exactly respond positively to the news in last week's sleepwalk at TCU. But with QB Porterie enduring a bit of a sophomore slump, low-variance UNM not offering much value itself lately (no covers last 5). Ultra-competitive recent series history suggests generous points worth considering.

(06-N. Mex. 39-UNLV 36 (OT)...U.17-14 N.39/112 U.29/84 U.18/33/2/295 N.13/27/1/168 N.0 U.2)

(06-Unm -2' 39-36 (OT) 05-UNM -15 24-22 04-Unm +2' 24-20...SR: New Mexico 8-6)

Washington State 29 - WASHINGTON 27--Will Morley Safer and the 60 Minutes crew show up in Pullman to investigate Wazzu's 8-TO meltdown vs. Oregon State? Still, Bill Doba's Cougar "D" has shown enough in recent weeks to suggest it won't get run over by U-Dub RBs as did fading Cal last week. And wouldn't want to count on Husky backup QB Bonnell (just 7 of 19 vs. Golden Bears) to extend Apple Cup margin if Jake Locker unavailable again.

(06-Wash. 35-WSU 32...S.26-14 U.31/109 S.31/102 S.32/54/0/328 U.14/27/2/271 U.0 S.1)

(06-Wash. +8' 35-32 05-Wsu -3 26-22 04-WSU -12 28-25...SR: Washington 64-29-6)

*WESTERN MICHIGAN 27 - Temple 23--Temple, which was 4-42 SU the last four years, last week logged it's 4th victory of 2007 against Kent State. Look for remarkable turnaround to continue as Owls catch Western Michigan possibly still celebrating its upset at Iowa. Broncos managed to avoid turnovers and played perhaps their best defensive game of the season at Kinnick Stadium against the Hawkeyes, but hard-trying 2007 Temple defense is a much better unit than the one that yielded 41 points in last year's visit to Kalamazoo. Owls' frosh RB Daryl Robinson (17 carries for 105 yds. vs. Kent) gives Temple a lift.

(06-W. MICH. 41-Tem. 7...W.15-12 W.34/151 T.29/9 W.15/26/0/143 T.12/26/3/140 W.1 T.1)

(06-WMU -30 41-7 05-Wmu -3' 19-16...SR: Western Michigan 5-0)

*BOSTON COLLEGE 33 - Miami-Florida 13--Motivation a major ? for BC, which has already bagged a spot in ACC title game after last week's hard-fought win at Clemson. Want no part of money-burning Miami bunch that's just 11-24 vs. spread since start of 2005, however. Hurricanes have lost 5 of last 6 SU, as their offense is mostly inept, while their once-proud defense playing with little passion. TV--ESPN

(06-MIAMI 17-Bos. Col. 14...10-10 M.34/66 B.25/24 M.13/26/3/181 B.17/34/1/169 M.1 B.1)

(06-MIAMI-FLORIDA +4 17-14...SR: Miami-Florida 23-3)

*Virginia Tech 19 - VIRGINIA 10--Winner earns spot in next week's ACC title game. Can't sell host Cavaliers short, as they have extra week of prep and a knack for pulling out close games TY (6 of UVa's 9 wins have come by total of 12 pts.!). The stout defenses figure to hold sway in this matchup, so "under" might be best percentage play. Slightly lean to visiting Tech, as its complementary QBs, pocket-passing jr. Glennon & mobile true frosh T. Taylor, have a few more weapons at their disposal.

(06-VA. TECH 17-Va. 0...T.14-5 T.45/156 U.23/46 T.12/18/1/146 U.10/21/1/66 T.0 U.1)

(06-TECH -17 17-0 05-Tech -7 52-14 04-TECH -3' 24-10...SR: Virginia Tech 46-37-5)

*STANFORD 24 - Notre Dame 17--We'd bet even Digger Phelps isn't convinced last week's win vs. lowly Duke is any sort of late-season "buy" signal for ND. Despite that result, their shaky OL, lack of playmakers, and suspect "D" remain tangible negatives for Irish. Rested Stanford has at least progressed noticeably for Jim Harbaugh in '07, and Cardinal arsenal better stocked this week with return of big-play WR Sherman from 1-game suspension.

(06-N. DAME 31-Stan. 10...N.29-14 N.39/204 S.31/72 N.27/38/0/232 S.10/18/1/154 N.0 S.0)

(06-UND -29' 31-10 05-Und -15' 38-31 04-UND -5 23-15...SR: Notre Dame 15-6)

*Tcu 29 - SAN DIEGO STATE 23--We're not going to argue with SDSU critics who maintain Aztecs didn't beat much in their 4 wins this season. But SDSU "D" might not be as vulnerable vs. the more-conventional TCU attack as it was vs. Air Force's hybrid shotgun/option that gained almost 4/10 of a mile in last week's blowout. Remember, Frogs have covered only once on road TY, and Aztec QB O'Donnell has the wheels to neutralize TCU's Blake/Ortiz pass-rush duo.

(06-TCU 52-San Diego St. 0...T.30-6 T.49/275 S.24/31 T.22/26/0/349 S.11/25/2/56 T.1 S.0)

(06-TCU -17 52-0 05-Tcu -6' 23-20...SR: TCU 2-0)

ADDED GAMES

SOUTHERN MISS 29 - Arkansas State 23--Host Eagles are just 1-3 SU & vs. spread last 4 at Hattiesburg. ASU's indomitable soph QB Leonard (game-winning TDP on final play of game vs. UNT last week), top-notch soph RB Arnold, and scrappy defense find ways to keep Indians hanging around.

(05-Southern Miss -16' 31-19 (New Orleans Bowl)...SR: Southern Miss 6-3)

*LA.-LAFAYETTE 30 - La.-Monroe 28--Monroe's upset of Alabama sets up HC Charlie Weatherbie's Warhawks for a possible letdown against rival Lafayette this week. While Monroe RB Calvin Dawson figures to get his yards against yielding Lafayette defensive front, Ragin' Cajun counterpart Tyrell Fenroy has 363 YR in Lafayette's last 3 games. Although jr. QB Desormeaux reinjured his clavicle last week, sr. backup Connor Morel keyed the victory by completing 12 of 15 passes.

(06-Mon. 39-LAF. 20...L.24-16 M.33/173 L.41/173 M.11/18/0/244 L.22/42/3/189 M.1 L.0)

(06-Ulm +3 39-20 05-Ull +2' 54-21 04-ULM -4 13-10...SR: La.-Monroe 21-20)

*Florida Atlantic 30 - Florida Intl. 23--FIU losing streak now at 22 (Golden Panthers, seeking to avoid two straight winless seasons, host North Texas next week). QB Rusty Smith (21 TDP) and the Fla. Atlantic offense should win the day, but FIU now appears to have enough seasoned athletes on defense and just enough QBing (RS frosh Younger 2 TDP, 1 TDR last week) to make a game of it. (at Dolphin Stadium)

(06-Fla. Atl. 31-Fla. Intl. 0...A.22-13 A.45/142 I.19/50 A.15/22/0/219 I.15/31/1/153 A.0 I.0)

(06-Fau -4 31-0 at Dolphin Stad. 05-FIU -1' 52-6 04-Fau -13' 17-10 at DS...SR: FAU 4-1)





COLLEGE KEY RELEASES



BOISE STATE by 7 over Hawaii (Friday)

TENNESSEE by 9 over Kentucky

OHIO U. by 14 over Miami-Ohio

GEORGIA by 16 over Georgia Tech

 

[Senor Capper]

Sunshine forecast---------------------------
NFL Computer Predictions

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Green Bay Packers (-3?) at Detroit Lions

Power Rating Projection:

Green Bay Packers 23 Detroit Lions 21


Statistical Projections

Green Bay Packers 26
Rushing Yards: 74
Passing Yards: 312
Turnovers: 3

Detroit Lions 17
Rushing Yards: 68
Passing Yards: 270
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to Green Bay Packers

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Detroit Lions 28 Green Bay Packers 19
Detroit Lions (1 star)
Angle: Scored 30+ Points in Consecutive Games [Teams coming off back-to-back games scoring at least 30 points ]
Go against Green Bay Packers ( Playing away from home, Played previous two games at home, 18-28-1, 39.1% )
Historical trend: Take Detroit Lions ( Domination by home team, 12-4, 75.0% )

New York Jets (+13?) at Dallas Cowboys

Power Rating Projection:

Dallas Cowboys 28 New York Jets 19


Statistical Projections

New York Jets 19
Rushing Yards: 91
Passing Yards: 216
Turnovers: 2

Dallas Cowboys 32
Rushing Yards: 125
Passing Yards: 319
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Dallas Cowboys 34 New York Jets 24
Angle: Favored by More Than 13 Points at Home [Home teams favored by more than 13 points ]
Go against Dallas Cowboys ( No additional conditions, 31-36-3, 46.3% )

Indianapolis Colts (-11?) at Atlanta Falcons

Power Rating Projection:

Indianapolis Colts 30 Atlanta Falcons 17


Statistical Projections

Indianapolis Colts 28
Rushing Yards: 122
Passing Yards: 268
Turnovers: 1

Atlanta Falcons 16
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 174
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts 30 Atlanta Falcons 17
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Indianapolis Colts ( No additional conditions, 41-65-3, 38.7% )
Angle: Home Underdogs [Teams playing as a home underdog ]
Go with Atlanta Falcons ( Underdog by more than 7 points, Lost at home in previous game, 15-8, 65.2% )

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Denver Broncos (+3) at Chicago Bears

Power Rating Projection:

Chicago Bears 25 Denver Broncos 19


Statistical Projections

Denver Broncos 21
Rushing Yards: 123
Passing Yards: 240
Turnovers: 2

Chicago Bears 25
Rushing Yards: 115
Passing Yards: 255
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Chicago Bears 27 Denver Broncos 21

Tennessee Titans (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals

Power Rating Projection:

Tennessee Titans 23 Cincinnati Bengals 21


Statistical Projections

Tennessee Titans 24
Rushing Yards: 146
Passing Yards: 185
Turnovers: 2

Cincinnati Bengals 21
Rushing Yards: 81
Passing Yards: 244
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tennessee Titans 25 Cincinnati Bengals 24

Buffalo Bills (+7?) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Power Rating Projection:

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 Buffalo Bills 13


Statistical Projections

Buffalo Bills 15
Rushing Yards: 90
Passing Yards: 190
Turnovers: 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Rushing Yards: 165
Passing Yards: 186
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Jacksonville Jaguars 15 Buffalo Bills 7

Oakland Raiders (+6) at Kansas City Chiefs

Power Rating Projection:

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Oakland Raiders 18


Statistical Projections

Oakland Raiders 14
Rushing Yards: 112
Passing Yards: 184
Turnovers: 3

Kansas City Chiefs 18
Rushing Yards: 106
Passing Yards: 217
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Oakland Raiders 18
Historical trend: Take Oakland Raiders ( Domination by underdog at Kansas City Chiefs, 7-0-1, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Oakland Raiders ( Domination by visiting team, 13-3-1, 81.3% )
Historical trend: Take Oakland Raiders ( Domination on the road by Oakland Raiders, 6-1-1, 85.7% )

Houston Texans (+4) at Cleveland Browns

Power Rating Projection:

Cleveland Browns 26 Houston Texans 23


Statistical Projections

Houston Texans 26
Rushing Yards: 104
Passing Yards: 269
Turnovers: 2

Cleveland Browns 28
Rushing Yards: 111
Passing Yards: 268
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Cleveland Browns 33 Houston Texans 30

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St Louis Rams

Power Rating Projection:

Seattle Seahawks 26 St Louis Rams 20


Statistical Projections

Seattle Seahawks 25
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 261
Turnovers: 1

St Louis Rams 15
Rushing Yards: 110
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Seattle Seahawks

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Seattle Seahawks 30 St Louis Rams 24

Minnesota Vikings (+7?) at New York Giants

Power Rating Projection:

New York Giants 21 Minnesota Vikings 17


Statistical Projections

Minnesota Vikings 19
Rushing Yards: 160
Passing Yards: 174
Turnovers: 2

New York Giants 17
Rushing Yards: 100
Passing Yards: 171
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Minnesota Vikings

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New York Giants 17 Minnesota Vikings 13

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers

Power Rating Projection:

New Orleans Saints 23 Carolina Panthers 18


Statistical Projections

New Orleans Saints 24
Rushing Yards: 87
Passing Yards: 276
Turnovers: 2

Carolina Panthers 20
Rushing Yards: 111
Passing Yards: 241
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New Orleans Saints 20 Carolina Panthers 17
Historical trend: Take New Orleans Saints ( Domination by visiting team, 13-4, 76.5% )

Washington Redskins (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Power Rating Projection:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 Washington Redskins 18


Statistical Projections

Washington Redskins 18
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21
Rushing Yards: 117
Passing Yards: 214
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Washington Redskins 14

San Francisco 49ers (+10?) at Arizona Cardinals

Power Rating Projection:

Arizona Cardinals 26 San Francisco 49ers 16


Statistical Projections

San Francisco 49ers 13
Rushing Yards: 86
Passing Yards: 160
Turnovers: 2

Arizona Cardinals 23
Rushing Yards: 89
Passing Yards: 235
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Arizona Cardinals 24 San Francisco 49ers 14

Baltimore Ravens (+9) at San Diego Chargers

Power Rating Projection:

San Diego Chargers 24 Baltimore Ravens 15


Statistical Projections

Baltimore Ravens 16
Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 221
Turnovers: 3

San Diego Chargers 22
Rushing Yards: 84
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Diego Chargers 19 Baltimore Ravens 10

Philadelphia Eagles (+22) at New England Patriots

Power Rating Projection:

New England Patriots 28 Philadelphia Eagles 14


Statistical Projections

Philadelphia Eagles 19
Rushing Yards: 132
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 2

New England Patriots 32
Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 301
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Philadelphia Eagles

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New England Patriots 27 Philadelphia Eagles 13
Angle: Favored by More Than 13 Points at Home [Home teams favored by more than 13 points ]
Go against New England Patriots ( No additional conditions, 31-36-3, 46.3% )

Monday, November 26, 2007

Miami Dolphins (+16) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Power Rating Projection:

Pittsburgh Steelers 29 Miami Dolphins 17


Statistical Projections

Miami Dolphins 13
Rushing Yards: 101
Passing Yards: 144
Turnovers: 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 28
Rushing Yards: 148
Passing Yards: 232
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 Miami Dolphins 21
Angle: Favored by More Than 13 Points at Home [Home teams favored by more than 13 points ]
Go against Pittsburgh Steelers ( No additional conditions, 31-36-3, 46.3% )

 

[Senor Capper]

Sunshine Forecast College
=====================

CFB Computer Predictions

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Middle Tennessee(+11?) at Troy

Power Rating Projection:

Troy 34 Middle Tennessee 22


Statistical Projections

Middle Tennessee 21
Rushing Yards: 151
Passing Yards: 172
Turnovers: 2

Troy 26
Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 239
Turnovers: 4

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Troy 37 Middle Tennessee 24

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Southern Cal(-3?) at Arizona State

Power Rating Projection:

Arizona State 28 Southern Cal 24


Statistical Projections

Southern Cal 21
Rushing Yards: 159
Passing Yards: 184
Turnovers: 2

Arizona State 22
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Arizona State 27 Southern Cal 24

Friday, November 23, 2007

Central Michigan(-2?) at Akron

Power Rating Projection:

Central Michigan 33 Akron 31


Statistical Projections

Central Michigan 39
Rushing Yards: 181
Passing Yards: 322
Turnovers: 1

Akron 25
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 209
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Central Michigan

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Central Michigan 38 Akron 37

Nebraska(+6) at Colorado

Power Rating Projection:

Nebraska 27 Colorado 26


Statistical Projections

Nebraska 29
Rushing Yards: 156
Passing Yards: 287
Turnovers: 3

Colorado 31
Rushing Yards: 176
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Nebraska 28 Colorado 27
Historical trend: Take Nebraska ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )

Mississippi(+6?) at Mississippi State

Power Rating Projection:

Mississippi State 30 Mississippi 23


Statistical Projections

Mississippi 25
Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 217
Turnovers: 2

Mississippi State 23
Rushing Yards: 153
Passing Yards: 165
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Mississippi State 31 Mississippi 24

Wyoming(+3) at Colorado State

Power Rating Projection:

Colorado State 27 Wyoming 24


Statistical Projections

Wyoming 29
Rushing Yards: 171
Passing Yards: 293
Turnovers: 3

Colorado State 20
Rushing Yards: 113
Passing Yards: 171
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Wyoming

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Colorado State 26 Wyoming 24

Toledo(+6) at Bowling Green

Power Rating Projection:

Bowling Green 36 Toledo 29


Statistical Projections

Toledo 37
Rushing Yards: 235
Passing Yards: 245
Turnovers: 2

Bowling Green 45
Rushing Yards: 167
Passing Yards: 351
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Bowling Green 42 Toledo 35

Arkansas(+12) at Louisiana State

Power Rating Projection:

Louisiana State 35 Arkansas 23


Statistical Projections

Arkansas 20
Rushing Yards: 176
Passing Yards: 125
Turnovers: 3

Louisiana State 33
Rushing Yards: 222
Passing Yards: 180
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Louisiana State 38 Arkansas 25

Texas(-6) at Texas A+M

Power Rating Projection:

Texas 33 Texas A+M 29


Statistical Projections

Texas 37
Rushing Yards: 193
Passing Yards: 345
Turnovers: 2

Texas A+M 23
Rushing Yards: 151
Passing Yards: 168
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Texas 38 Texas A+M 34
Historical trend: Take Texas A+M ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )

Boise State(+5) at Hawaii

Power Rating Projection:

Boise State 33 Hawaii 30


Statistical Projections

Boise State 30
Rushing Yards: 139
Passing Yards: 271
Turnovers: 2

Hawaii 28
Rushing Yards: 60
Passing Yards: 387
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Boise State 38 Hawaii 35

Saturday, November 24, 2007

South Florida(-11) at Pittsburgh

Power Rating Projection:

South Florida 30 Pittsburgh 20


Statistical Projections

South Florida 33
Rushing Yards: 158
Passing Yards: 249
Turnovers: 2

Pittsburgh 15
Rushing Yards: 109
Passing Yards: 146
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

South Florida 29 Pittsburgh 18

Connecticut(+17) at West Virginia

Power Rating Projection:

West Virginia 35 Connecticut 20


Statistical Projections

Connecticut 19
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 175
Turnovers: 2

West Virginia 30
Rushing Yards: 263
Passing Yards: 153
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

West Virginia 37 Connecticut 22

UTEP(+18) at U-C-F

Power Rating Projection:

U-C-F 43 UTEP 24


Statistical Projections

UTEP 26
Rushing Yards: 137
Passing Yards: 227
Turnovers: 2

U-C-F 39
Rushing Yards: 261
Passing Yards: 210
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

U-C-F 49 UTEP 30

Missouri(+2) vs. Kansas [@ Kansas City]

Power Rating Projection:

Kansas 32 Missouri 28


Statistical Projections

Missouri 24
Rushing Yards: 103
Passing Yards: 247
Turnovers: 2

Kansas 28
Rushing Yards: 179
Passing Yards: 226
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Kansas 36 Missouri 32

Duke(+14) at North Carolina

Power Rating Projection:

North Carolina 24 Duke 14


Statistical Projections

Duke 20
Rushing Yards: 61
Passing Yards: 220
Turnovers: 2

North Carolina 30
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 290
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

North Carolina 19 Duke 9

Wake Forest(-2) at Vanderbilt

Power Rating Projection:

Wake Forest 25 Vanderbilt 22


Statistical Projections

Wake Forest 23
Rushing Yards: 132
Passing Yards: 198
Turnovers: 2

Vanderbilt 16
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 141
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Wake Forest 22 Vanderbilt 19

Maryland(+1) at No Carolina State

Power Rating Projection:

Maryland 26 No Carolina State 23


Statistical Projections

Maryland 33
Rushing Yards: 158
Passing Yards: 279
Turnovers: 1

No Carolina State 22
Rushing Yards: 101
Passing Yards: 253
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to Maryland

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Maryland 24 No Carolina State 21

Cincinnati(-20) at Syracuse

Power Rating Projection:

Cincinnati 42 Syracuse 14


Statistical Projections

Cincinnati 42
Rushing Yards: 185
Passing Yards: 314
Turnovers: 1

Syracuse 12
Rushing Yards: 51
Passing Yards: 214
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to Cincinnati

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Cincinnati 44 Syracuse 17

Clemson(-3) at South Carolina

Power Rating Projection:

Clemson 30 South Carolina 25


Statistical Projections

Clemson 29
Rushing Yards: 200
Passing Yards: 186
Turnovers: 1

South Carolina 21
Rushing Yards: 84
Passing Yards: 225
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Clemson 31 South Carolina 27

Buffalo(+1?) at Kent State

Power Rating Projection:

Kent State 27 Buffalo 26


Statistical Projections

Buffalo 27
Rushing Yards: 120
Passing Yards: 245
Turnovers: 1

Kent State 24
Rushing Yards: 176
Passing Yards: 205
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Kent State 26 Buffalo 25

Tulane(+12) at East Carolina

Power Rating Projection:

East Carolina 37 Tulane 25


Statistical Projections

Tulane 23
Rushing Yards: 158
Passing Yards: 203
Turnovers: 2

East Carolina 29
Rushing Yards: 134
Passing Yards: 229
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

East Carolina 42 Tulane 30

Tennessee(+2?) at Kentucky

Power Rating Projection:

Kentucky 36 Tennessee 31


Statistical Projections

Tennessee 30
Rushing Yards: 164
Passing Yards: 212
Turnovers: 1

Kentucky 32
Rushing Yards: 158
Passing Yards: 277
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Kentucky 42 Tennessee 37

Miami-Ohio(+2?) at Ohio

Power Rating Projection:

Ohio 29 Miami-Ohio 23


Statistical Projections

Miami-Ohio 21
Rushing Yards: 136
Passing Yards: 221
Turnovers: 2

Ohio 19
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 192
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Ohio 28 Miami-Ohio 22

Utah(+4) at Brigham Young

Power Rating Projection:

Brigham Young 27 Utah 19


Statistical Projections

Utah 24
Rushing Yards: 131
Passing Yards: 206
Turnovers: 1

Brigham Young 22
Rushing Yards: 104
Passing Yards: 282
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Brigham Young 23 Utah 16
Historical trend: Take Utah ( Domination by underdog, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Utah ( Domination by underdog at Brigham Young, 4-0, 100.0% )

S-M-U(+7?) at Memphis

Power Rating Projection:

Memphis 29 S-M-U 22


Statistical Projections

S-M-U 27
Rushing Yards: 197
Passing Yards: 242
Turnovers: 3

Memphis 31
Rushing Yards: 139
Passing Yards: 311
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Memphis 35 S-M-U 16
Memphis (1 star)

Tulsa(-10?) at Rice

Power Rating Projection:

Tulsa 43 Rice 28


Statistical Projections

Tulsa 49
Rushing Yards: 195
Passing Yards: 419
Turnovers: 3

Rice 28
Rushing Yards: 115
Passing Yards: 262
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Tulsa

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tulsa 48 Rice 33

Oregon(-3) at U.C.L.A.

Power Rating Projection:

Oregon 32 U.C.L.A. 24


Statistical Projections

Oregon 37
Rushing Yards: 227
Passing Yards: 239
Turnovers: 2

U.C.L.A. 24
Rushing Yards: 150
Passing Yards: 216
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Oregon

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Oregon 34 U.C.L.A. 26

Alabama(+6) at Auburn

Power Rating Projection:

Auburn 26 Alabama 21


Statistical Projections

Alabama 20
Rushing Yards: 132
Passing Yards: 176
Turnovers: 2

Auburn 22
Rushing Yards: 145
Passing Yards: 171
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Auburn 23 Alabama 19
Historical trend: Take Alabama ( Domination by visiting team, 6-2, 75.0% )

Georgia(-3) at Georgia Tech

Power Rating Projection:

Georgia 25 Georgia Tech 17


Statistical Projections

Georgia 27
Rushing Yards: 122
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 1

Georgia Tech 21
Rushing Yards: 176
Passing Yards: 169
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Georgia 20 Georgia Tech 13
Historical trend: Take Georgia ( Domination on the road by Georgia, 4-0, 100.0% )

Utah State(+2?) at Idaho

Power Rating Projection:

Utah State 31 Idaho 29


Statistical Projections

Utah State 27
Rushing Yards: 128
Passing Yards: 207
Turnovers: 2

Idaho 28
Rushing Yards: 165
Passing Yards: 241
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Utah State 34 Idaho 32

Florida State(+14?) at Florida

Power Rating Projection:

Florida 38 Florida State 18


Statistical Projections

Florida State 26
Rushing Yards: 88
Passing Yards: 278
Turnovers: 1

Florida 34
Rushing Yards: 134
Passing Yards: 295
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Florida 39 Florida State 20
Historical trend: Take Florida ( Domination by favorite at Florida, 4-0, 100.0% )

Oklahoma State(+13) at Oklahoma

Power Rating Projection:

Oklahoma 42 Oklahoma State 24


Statistical Projections

Oklahoma State 28
Rushing Yards: 184
Passing Yards: 245
Turnovers: 2

Oklahoma 34
Rushing Yards: 169
Passing Yards: 281
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Oklahoma 48 Oklahoma State 29
Historical trend: Take Oklahoma ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )

Nevada-Reno(-3) at San Jose State

Power Rating Projection:

San Jose State 33 Nevada-Reno 32


Statistical Projections

Nevada-Reno 31
Rushing Yards: 221
Passing Yards: 207
Turnovers: 2

San Jose State 29
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 253
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Jose State 39 Nevada-Reno 38
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Reno ( Domination by favorite, 7-0, 100.0% )

Ball State(-9) at Northern Illinois

Power Rating Projection:

Ball State 32 Northern Illinois 17


Statistical Projections

Ball State 33
Rushing Yards: 167
Passing Yards: 280
Turnovers: 0

Northern Illinois 17
Rushing Yards: 144
Passing Yards: 213
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Ball State 31 Northern Illinois 17

U-A-B(+14?) at Marshall

Power Rating Projection:

Marshall 35 U-A-B 21


Statistical Projections

U-A-B 24
Rushing Yards: 129
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 1

Marshall 32
Rushing Yards: 205
Passing Yards: 275
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Marshall 37 U-A-B 23

Kansas State(Pk) at Fresno State

Power Rating Projection:

Fresno State 32 Kansas State 29


Statistical Projections

Kansas State 32
Rushing Yards: 153
Passing Yards: 261
Turnovers: 1

Fresno State 28
Rushing Yards: 171
Passing Yards: 191
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Fresno State 36 Kansas State 33

Nevada-Las Vegas(+10?) at New Mexico

Power Rating Projection:

New Mexico 30 Nevada-Las Vegas 18


Statistical Projections

Nevada-Las Vegas 19
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 212
Turnovers: 2

New Mexico 29
Rushing Yards: 153
Passing Yards: 246
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New Mexico 28 Nevada-Las Vegas 16

Washington State(+5?) at Washington

Power Rating Projection:

Washington 34 Washington State 23


Statistical Projections

Washington State 31
Rushing Yards: 146
Passing Yards: 336
Turnovers: 2

Washington 36
Rushing Yards: 216
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Washington 37 Washington State 25
Historical trend: Take Washington State ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )

Temple(+11?) at Western Michigan

Power Rating Projection:

Western Michigan 34 Temple 23


Statistical Projections

Temple 20
Rushing Yards: 107
Passing Yards: 211
Turnovers: 3

Western Michigan 26
Rushing Yards: 106
Passing Yards: 270
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Western Michigan 34 Temple 23

Miami-Florida(+14?) at Boston College

Power Rating Projection:

Boston College 36 Miami-Florida 21


Statistical Projections

Miami-Florida 16
Rushing Yards: 74
Passing Yards: 197
Turnovers: 3

Boston College 34
Rushing Yards: 99
Passing Yards: 362
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Boston College 38 Miami-Florida 24

Virginia Tech(-3?) at Virginia

Power Rating Projection:

Virginia Tech 25 Virginia 19


Statistical Projections

Virginia Tech 22
Rushing Yards: 132
Passing Yards: 168
Turnovers: 1

Virginia 16
Rushing Yards: 92
Passing Yards: 177
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Virginia Tech 20 Virginia 14
Historical trend: Take Virginia Tech ( Domination by favorite, 7-1, 87.5% )

Notre Dame(+3?) at Stanford

Power Rating Projection:

Notre Dame 26 Stanford 25


Statistical Projections

Notre Dame 19
Rushing Yards: 86
Passing Yards: 206
Turnovers: 2

Stanford 25
Rushing Yards: 129
Passing Yards: 209
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Notre Dame 26 Stanford 24

Texas Christian(-10?) at San Diego State

Power Rating Projection:

Texas Christian 32 San Diego State 19


Statistical Projections

Texas Christian 30
Rushing Yards: 196
Passing Yards: 232
Turnovers: 2

San Diego State 17
Rushing Yards: 93
Passing Yards: 195
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Texas Christian 31 San Diego State 19

Arkansas State(+13) at Southern Miss

Power Rating Projection:

Southern Miss 34 Arkansas State 20


Statistical Projections

Arkansas State 21
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 207
Turnovers: 2

Southern Miss 29
Rushing Yards: 183
Passing Yards: 202
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Southern Miss 34 Arkansas State 20

UL-Monroe(-3) at UL-Lafayette

Power Rating Projection:

UL-Monroe 30 UL-Lafayette 27


Statistical Projections

UL-Monroe 33
Rushing Yards: 242
Passing Yards: 202
Turnovers: 1

UL-Lafayette 27
Rushing Yards: 252
Passing Yards: 159
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

UL-Monroe 33 UL-Lafayette 30
Angle: After Winning as 20-Point Dog [Teams coming off an upset win as a 20-point underdog ]
Go against UL-Monroe ( Favored by 1 to 19? points (or PK), 8-10, 44.4% )
Historical trend: Take UL-Lafayette ( Domination by underdog, 7-0-1, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take UL-Lafayette ( Domination by underdog at UL-Lafayette, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take UL-Monroe ( Domination on the road by UL-Monroe, 4-0, 100.0% )

Florida Atlantic(-11?) vs. Florida Intl [@ Dolphin Stadium]

Power Rating Projection:

Florida Atlantic 35 Florida Intl 19


Statistical Projections

Florida Atlantic 39
Rushing Yards: 131
Passing Yards: 350
Turnovers: 0

Florida Intl 13
Rushing Yards: 120
Passing Yards: 143
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to Florida Atlantic

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Florida Atlantic 36 Florida Intl 21

Texas Southern at Houston

Power Rating Projection:

Houston 54 Texas Southern 13


Statistical Projections
No statistical projections for this game

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Houston 59 Texas Southern 19

Western Kentucky at North Texas

Power Rating Projection:

Western Kentucky 38 North Texas 28


Statistical Projections

Western Kentucky 34
Rushing Yards: 287
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 3

North Texas 19
Rushing Yards: 96
Passing Yards: 275
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Western Kentucky 43 North Texas 34

 

[Senor Capper]

Power Play 4* Selections:

4* Mississippi State
4* Colorado State
4* South Florida
4* Missouri (Only if they are an underdog)
4* North Carolina
4* Tulane
4* Miami-Ohio
4* Washington
4* TCU
4* UL-Monroe
4* Florida Atlantic


================

Pointwise


COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CENTRAL FLORIDA over Utep RATING: 1
VANDERBILT over Wake Forest RATING: 1
SAN JOSE STATE over Nevada RATING: 2
KANSAS over Missouri RATING: 3
WEST VIRGINIA over Uconn RATING: 3
FRESNO STATE over Kansas State RATING: 4
OKLAHOMA STATE over Oklahoma RATING: 5
CINCINNATI over Syracuse RATING: 5

NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND over Philadelphia RATING: 2
TAMPA BAY over Washington RATING: 3
HOUSTON over Cleveland RATING: 4
ST LOUIS over Seattle RATING: 4
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo RATING: 5

 

[Senor Capper]

Confidential Kick-Off!!


11 *VANDERBILT over Wake Forest

Late Score Forecast:

*VANDERBILT 32 - Wake Forest 23
Southern CKO sources report veteran, smartly-coached Vandy has been able to quickly shake off painful 25-24 come-from-ahead loss vs. rival Tennessee (FG kicker missed 3 of 4!) in preparation for "monumental" match vs. Wake Forest. After all, 'Dores become bowl eligible with their 1st non-losing season since 1982 with victory here! We like their chances. Vandy's well-balanced attack, directed by more careful QB Adams (4 TDs, no ints. last 2 games) will do damage vs. penetrable WF defense which has allowed 36 pts. or more in 3 road games in '07. And after facing a challenging trio of gifted, rifle-armed QBs in Tebow, Woodson & Ainge over past 3 weeks, swift, gang-tackling Vandy defense (just 19 ppg in 5 home games) will be prepared for Deacons less-dynamic aerial game generating fewer than 200 ypg (only 10 TDP). Moreover, 'Dores won't be fooled by Grobe's myriad of misdirection plays, having upset Deacons 24-20 in Winston-Salem in '05



10 *UCF over Utep

Late Score Forecast:

*UCF 52 - Utep 24
Hot meets cold in this game, as UCF has won 5 straight, posting a 4-1 spread mark as star RB Kevin Smith rushed for 206 ypg and 14 TDs in that streak. Contrast that success with slumping UTEP, which has exactly the reverse record (0-5 SU, 1-4 vs. the number) and has yielded 45 ppg & 528 ypg in that nosedive. The UTEP defense yields 5.0 ypc and ranks 100th against the run, so "24-K" (Smith), who leads the nation in scoring at 13.6 ppg, figures to continue his productive surge. UCF sr. QB Kyle Israel is also contributing, completing 69% of his passes in the Golden Knights last 5. It will be a raucous crowd at the new Bright House Networks Stadium, where the first 5 games have resulted in 5 of the top 8 all-time crowds for UCF home games.



10 *RICE over Tulsa

Late Score Forecast:

*RICE 37 - Tulsa 38
Realize a win here gives Tulsa a spot in the C-USA championship game, but a victory won't come easily in Houston. Few QBs (if any) are hotter than Rice triggerman Chase Clement, who's thrown for 1112 yards & 12 TDs in the last 3 games. The Owls have put up 43 ppg, and Clement and jr. WR Jarett Dillard have hooked up 33 times in that run, with Dillard catching 2 TD passes in each of the three games. Okay, so Rice doesn't play defense, but that's not exactly Tulsa's forte either. The Golden Hurricane gives up 34 ppg & ranks 104th in total defense this season, and Tulsa has had turnover issues (-8 ratio). Certainly Tulsa QB Paul Smith (3rd in the country in total offense) will do damage, but Clement will trade him TD-for-TD all the way



10 WASHINGTON ST. over *Washington

Late Score Forecast:

WASHINGTON ST. 30-*Washington 24
Admittedly, Washington State's 8-TO nightmare vs. Oregon State was bad enough to prompt a visit from Mike Wallace to see what really happened vs. Beavers. But Pac-10 sources convinced those shenanigans unlikely to occur in heated Apple Cup, where Cougs should be focused to atone for bitter 3-point home loss to U-Dub in '06 that knocked WSU out of bowl picture. Can't blame Cougar "D" for the result vs. OSU, and Bill Doba's stop unit has indeed played much better in second half of season since young 2ndary matured and platoon switched to 3-4 alignment. And no surprise if WSU QB Brink exploits burnable Husky "D" in his final game as a Coug. Meanwhile, UW unreliable as chalk (2-8 last 10 in role) with either Jake Locker or backup Carl Bonnell (just 7 of 19 vs. Cal) at QB.

10 WASHINGTON over *Tampa Bay

Late Score Forecast:

WASHINGTON 20 - *Tampa Bay 13

(Sunday, November 25)
Don't count the Redskins out just yet! Although Washington has lost 3 of its last 4 and relinquished a pole position in the NFC wildcard race, developments in last Sunday's near-miss at Dallas indicate Redskins could still figure somewhere in the playoff mix. In particular, WR Santa Moss (9 catches vs. Cowboys) appears fully recovered from recent heel injury that limited his effectiveness the past month. And the legit deep threat Moss provides is once again giving QB Jason Campbell the confidence to look downfield after being forced to dink and rely on RB Clinton Portis' thrusts in recent weeks. Granted, Tampa Bay opening up some daylight in soft NFC South, but Buc attack remains somewhat limited with young OL often struggling to provide QB Garcia proper pass protection.

TOTALS: OVER (51) in the Houston-Cleveland game--Some way, some how (Josh Cribbs' returns are helping), Cleveland has found a way to go "over" 9-0-1 TY!...UNDER (41) in the Minnesota-N.Y. Giants game--Giants' back seven improving; Vikes much prefer the overland route.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): CINCINNATI (-20) at Syracuse...Bearcats, with their takeaway defense and much-improved offense, too much for limited, downtrodden Syracuse...MEMPHIS (-8) vs. Smu--Tigers have come out of nowhere to enter bowl picture; Mustangs' defense has too little rush, way too little coverage to cool down hot Memphis QB Hankins...NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+8) over Ball State--Prideful Northern still tough to beat in DeKalb despite slew of early-season injuries...TEMPLE (+11) at Western Michigan--Slowly ascending Owls enjoying being back in the MAC, where they're 5-1 vs. the spread in 2007...NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) vs. Minnesota--Somewhere along the line, the Vikings' limited QBing is likely to fail under the pressure of the G-men's pass-rushers.


===================


Marc L
smart box
SAYONARA
The last game of the season can be meaningful for college football teams in need of respect. From a handicapping perspective, this especially holds true when our squad that is about to check out meets these 'value laden' criteria:

a) they must have won 2 or fewer games last season
b) they are on the road, without rest, in their season finale
c) they own a win percentage of .200 > this season
d) their opponent's win percentage is .444 < this season

By combining all the factors above our ?see ya later? sad sacks are a nifty 35-21 ATS since 1980. There are two qualifying ?Sayonara? teams on this week?s schedule: Buffalo and Temple.

By simply going up against a foe that allows 27.5 > PPG, and making sure we allow < 34 PPG, we improve our numbers to 18-7 ATS. And by making sure our opponent did not win two games ago by 10 or more points, we ratchet our record up to 18-4 ATS. Both Buffalo and Temple qualify this week.

While neither the Bulls nor the Owls will be bowling this season, this year?s teams certainly improved leaps and bounds over last year?s editions. A season-ending pointspread win would be the Saki-making statement to that effect


======

 

[Senor Capper]

College Football: Rivalry Motivation
by Scott Spreitzer

You?ve probably heard the gambling myth that college football pointspreads get stronger as the season progresses. Once all the teams have played 10 or 11 games, there supposedly aren?t any secrets left.

I do agree that everybody knows the teams better. So, in that sense November lines are more accurate than September lines. But, oddsmakers have shown over the years that they haven?t been able to properly capture all the emotions that go into late season football. These emotional factors are so great that they lead to some of the easiest pointspread covers of the entire season.

In a sense, the lines are better and worse at the same time! Late season pointspreads capture the stat and personnel differences pretty well. But, they do a horrible job of factoring in the emotions properly.

I?d argue that these lines are WORSE (thanks to faulty public perception) than those we see in September!

Let me show you some examples from games played after Thanksgiving last season. These are obviously ?late season? games if they?re after Turkey Day.

Texas A&M (+13) beat Texas outright 12-7
South Florida (+21) beat West Virginia outright 24-19
South Carolina (+5) beat Clemson outright 31-28
Wake Forest (+1) beat Maryland outright 38-24
Purdue (+18) lost a heartbreaker to Hawaii 42-35
UCLA (+11) beat USC outright 13-9
Oregon State (+9) beat Hawaii outright 38-35
Rutgers (+10) lost a heartbreaker to West Virginia 41-39

All of those underdogs put up great performances. The list includes four dogs of more than a touchdown that won outright, and a couple of others who just missed. It also includes some very big name favorites, like USC, Texas, and West Virginia (twice). The public really took a bath in the Purdue contest.

But don?t get the idea that late season football is only about upsets:

Nebraska (-13) crushed Colorado 37-14
Rutgers (-16) slaughtered Syracuse 38-7
Louisville (-11) pounded Pittsburgh 48-24
Boise State (-2) nailed Nevada 38-7

Those were all double-digit covers for motivated favorites against teams who lacked competitive fire.

You see, that?s the whole key to handicapping late season college football action. Which team is going to have competitive fire? Which team is going to be flat because they?re looking ahead to a bigger game down the road, or because they?ve already mentally finished their seasons. These edges can be worth two or even three touchdowns.

And there?s nothing the oddsmaker can do about it! They?re trying to balance the books based on how the public is going to bet anyway. The public bets based on what they know about the teams rather than the possible influences of competitive fire. As a result, late season college football lines will ALWAYS be way off. Yet, the books continue to cash the majority of "John Q. Public's" wagers.

Here are keys to look for when trying to find the team with competitive fire in late season games:

Favorites who have already clinched what they need to clinch will often be flat in these late season games. They?ll be priced as champions, but they?re likely to have one of their least motivated efforts of the season. They?re thinking about a conference championship game coming up, or the bowl they?ve already clinched.

Favorites who have something to play for, but are facing a bowl caliber opponent will often have trouble living up to expectations. They won?t necessarily be flat. But they will play a bit too nervous and conservative for their own good. Their opponents will have a ton of competitive fire because they?ll have a chance to play spoiler against a big name team. Look at how many of those upsets last year featured bowl bound underdogs. A&M beat Texas on the road. South Florida beat West Virginia on the road.

Favorites who have a history of running up the score on weak opposition will run away and hide from non-bowl teams late in the year. The lesser teams get demoralized early in the game, and just throw in the towel. The favorites will keep piling on the points, particularly if it?s ?senior day? in a home finale.

It?s all about competitive fire. In some games you?ll uncover dogs that are ready to spring an upset and throw a monkey wrench in the BCS process. In other games, you?ll find favorites who might have a high spread covered by halftime on the way to a rout. If you look to go against distracted favorites, while backing talented underdogs, you?ll have no trouble finding these games.


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TOM SCOTT?S ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Posted: 2007-11-20
It seems like there are more and more teams in college football that are totally clueless on defense. They can?t stop anybody. Bad defenses present good opportunities for the shrewd handicapper and even help the dull ones like me. If you?ll allow me to define "bad defense" as one that has allowed 40 or more points in each of its last two games, I?ll build on that simple parameter, and present a refreshed edition of an angle we presented earlier this season. All we need to do is make sure that the team we are playing against is a bad team to start with and that our team has a better record than the defenseless victim.

PLAY AGAINST any college road team who allowed 40 or more points in each of its last two games if the last game was at home, his WL% is less than .333, his opponent?s WL% is .375 or greater and his opponent won its last game by more than ten points.

26 Year ATS = 22-5 for 81.5%



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Marc L
stat of the week
Wyoming is 0-11 ATS in its final four games of the season the last three years.


Marc L
angle of the week
SO LONG CHAMPS
PLAY AGAINST college football's defending National Champion in it's last game of the season versus and opponent off a SUATS win.


ATS W-L Record Since 1990: 12-3
Play Against: Florida

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Marc Lawrence
Angle of the week = Play Against: TEXAS A&M

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Utah is a wallet-fattening
15-0-1 ATS as a conference dog
versus an .800 < opponent.

he has a 5* GOM this saturday going fyi RIP

3* Texas by 14
4* tenny by 13
5* Utah by 10

UPSET UPSET UPSET UPSET
S CAROLINA over Clemson by 6

3* Denver by 8
4* balt by 3
5* Bills by 10

3* Kc under
4* sd under
5* panthers under

 

[Senor Capper]

Robert Ferringo

NFL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 36.0 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Jaguars have been a fantastic ?over? play in the 34.0 to 36.0 total range, covering nearly 80 percent in this range over their last 20. The Jaguars have the 27th ranked pass defense in the league and just lost their defensive leader, Mike Peterson. Without Peterson and Marcus Stroud the Bills should have some room to breath. Further, there is a system at work here that has hit at a 73-percent clip over the past five years that we?re going to play.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #203 Buffalo (+7.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The road team is 5-2 ATS in this series and Buffalo has covered four out of five. They got embarrassed last week by the Patriots, but they are an amazing 14-1 ATS in games after playing New England. Jacksonville has some injury issues and I?m not confident enough in their offense as a whole to go out and put up huge numbers. Also, Buffalo is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.

3-Unit Play. Take #217 San Francisco (+10.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Cardinals are not used to being posted as this large of a favorite and I don?t think I trust them to cover this large number. This is a pretty intense rivalry and this is just too many points. Arizona has been winning lately, but not blowing anyone out. The road team has covered four straight, the Cards are 3-10 as a home favorite of 3.5 or more, and if Arizona can lose to Vinny Testaverde and Carolina at home they can lose to Trent Dilfer and San Fran.

3-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+3.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 25)
Neither team will be able to stop one another so the value is in the points. Cleveland is like Arizona - they've been winning and playing a lot of close games. I think that Houston has regained its mojo with Andre Johnson back and if they could handle New Orleans' offense last week they can get the better of the Browns, who are due for a letdown after back-to-back grueling divisional games.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 New York Giants (-7) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
Here is a case of just taking the better team. I think that the G-Men have toughened up against the run and that they can defend well enough to take away what the Vikings want to do.


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MARC LAWRENCE NFL PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB PLAY


Perfect System Club


NFL 11/25/07
WHERE'S THE 'D'?
PLAY AGAINST any .500 > NFL home favorite that has allowed 28 >
points in each of its last three games versus a .300 > opponent.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 15-0

Play Against: Cleveland Browns
Rationale: NFL favorites with leaky defenses are never a good
proposition, especially those at home against formidable opposition _________________________

 

[Senor Capper]

VALLEY SPORTS
FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICK
Sunday 11-25-2007
Buffalo Over Jacksonville
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Ron Jaworski

Jaws went 14 - 2 in week 11 making him 112 - 48 for the season

Week 12 Picks:

Indianapolis 24 - Atlanta 16
Tennessee 27 - Cincinnati 24

Dallas 31 - NY Jets 13
Arizona 24 - San Francisco 10

Green Bay 24 - Detroit 21

Kansas City 20 - Oakland 7

New England 23 - Philadelphia 17

New Orleans 21 - Carolina 14

NY Giants 21 - Minnesota 10

Washington 21 - Tampa Bay 17
Jacksonville 31 - Buffalo 17

San Diego 17 - Baltimore 13

Seattle 27 - St. Louis 17

Cleveland 17 - Houston 13

Denver 24 - Chicago 21
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