Power Sweep
(Phil Steele was 4-0 LW)
KEY SELECTIONS
4* TAMPA BAY over Atlanta - We won an easy 4H NFL GOM on Tampa Bay in the 1st meeting with
TB winning 31-7 as a 3 pt AF. Petrino went with Leftwich who had missed 3 Wks due to an ankle injury
over Harrington who had won 2 straight. TB turned 3 TO?s into 21 pts & ATL crippled themselves with
11 penalties for 105 yds in the game. TB is now 9-4-1 ATS vs ATL who were expected to start Chris
Redman on MNF. TB rested Garcia LW & while McCown was decent with 266 yds passing (66%) TB
couldn?t sustain any momentum. The Bucs missed a 50 yd FG & 2 fumbles set up 23 & 17 yd TD drives
& special teams allowed a 97 yd KR for a TD. TB is +11 TO?s at home. ATL is 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS (1 cover
by a point) vs teams with a winning record having been outFD?d 20-14 & outgained 346-253 with an avg
score of 25-9 TY. Despite LW?s setback TB is still in control of the NFC South & expect to see Garcia
wrap it up here. We?ll call for the same score as our GOM Winner.
FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 31 Atlanta 7
3* SAN DIEGO over Detroit - The Chargers rallied from 14 points down LW to send the game to OT
& win on a Tomlinson TD run. While Rivers struggled statistically (228 yds 53% with 2-2 ratio) he did
show a lot of moxie by coming back into the game with a sprained knee. DET is 2-6 ATS on grass while
SD is 5-2 ATS hosting an NFC team & 5-1 ATS at home. The key to this game is the Chargers huge
edge in the run game at home where they have outrushed foes 117 ypg (4.0) to 84 ypg (3.3) & vs a
DET team that has been outrushed 123 ypg (4.1) to 57 (3.5). SD has the #12 & #1 units (+2 TO?s) over
the L4W vs DET?s #14 & #32 units (-1 TO?s). DET looked to have stopped the bleeding with a 20-7 lead
vs DAL but saw it unravel when Romo led DAL on an 83 yd drive for the game winning TD inside the
final 2:00. They now travel to SD with 5 straight losses & Kitna?s ?10 win guarantee? is over. DET is just
2-4 SU & ATS on the road & has played just 1 team with a current winning record (MIN 7-6). In those 4
losses they have been manhandled getting outscored 41-14. We have won 3 straight with SD as a 3H
Key Selection & now get a DET team on the road off a game they controlled without its best WR Roy Williams.
FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 41 Detroit 17
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* CLEVELAND over Buffalo - Surprisingly CLE is just 1 game ahead of BUF for the final Wildcard
spot & both HC?s are in the running for Coach of the Year. CLE has the #8 & #32 units (+0 TO?s) vs BUF
who has the #28 & #30 units (+7) but that is due to a brutal schedule with 2 gms vs NE, DAL, JAX &
PIT. CLE is 12-3 ATS as a fav. BUF is 4-9 ATS away vs a non-div foe. CLE is 5-0 SU & ATS at home
with Anderson starting at QB who has passed for 279 ypg (64%) with a 12-4 ratio (106.2 QBR) in that
span. The Bills enter this game coming off a last second win vs WAS on a coaching blunder & blowing
out a historically bad MIA team. BUF had a 389-285 yd edge & forced 5 TO?s which were turned into
21 pts. CLE showed it can play power football in bad weather vs NYJ LW as they rushed for 152 yds
(5.2) in cold wet weather & BUF allows 135 ypg rush (4.3) on the road. The Browns game LW was kept
close due to repeated onside kicks by the Jets & CLE did wear down on the final 3 drives (149 yds).
Both teams special teams should offset each other but the Browns have more weapons on offense &
come away with the win. FORECAST: CLEVELAND 21 Buffalo 10
2* OAKLAND (+) over Indianapolis - The Colts come into this with a sizeable statistical advantage
(prior to SNF) with the #4 & #2 units (+11 TO?s) vs OAK #23 & #24 units (-7 TO?s). This is IND?s 3rd road
game in 4 Wks & final road game of the year (0-4 ATS). They are off B2B games vs physical defenses
& have HOU & TEN on deck. IND is 8-4 ATS as a DD fav. OAK is 2-6 ATS as a DD dog. Unlike previous
years in Dec (4-11 ATS) IND has something to play for here. OAK is 1-4 SU & ATS vs teams with a winning
record TY & was dominated at GB getting outgained 445-233 in a 38-7 loss. While the numbers above
certainly are slanted towards Indy we?ll now look at the emotional aspects. Indy is off a SNF meeting
with BAL & a win would put their magic number at just 1 to clinch a bye. They now travel from BAL back
home, then to the West Coast & play on a slow grass field. Since their opening loss to DET the Raiders
have only lost ONE game by over 11 points & that was a road trip to SD. While OAK may fade off the
beating they took LW it?s more likely they continue to play hard as they did in a 14 win over DEN & a 3
point road win at KC the previous 2 games. Grabbing DD?s against a disinterested Colts team makes
this a very attractive ?ugly dog? (16-7 70%). FORECAST: OAKLAND 13 (+) Indianapolis 20
OTHER GAMES:
Denver at HOUSTON - Thursday - This is the 1st regular season meeting between Mike Shanahan &
his former OC Gary Kubiak. It?s not very surprising that these teams are similar statistically with DEN
having the #5 & #22 units vs HOU #12 & #21 units. HOU is off an upset win vs TB converting 2 TO?s
into 14 pts & was helped out with a 97 yd KR TD. Rosenfels is 2-0 SU & ATS as a starter for HOU avg
195 ypg (69%) with a 4-1 ratio. DEN was in control of LW?s game from start to finish & had a 14-5 FD
& 304-103 yd edge at the end of the 1H. Neither team has a particular advantage due to coaching staff
familiarity & this will be a Marquee Selection. Call after noon ET on Thursday for the Marquee winner
for only $9 on your Northcoast Debit Card, a winner last Thursday with Washington!
Cincinnati at SAN FRANCISCO - Saturday - This has the Bengals #10 & #3 units the L4W vs the 49ers
#29 & #19 units. CIN took advantage of a STL team that was forced to start 3rd string QB Berlin LW & had a
15-5 FD & 300-130 yd edge at the end of the 3Q with a 16-7 score. SF may be without Dilfer (concussion)
here & 3rd string Shaun Hill saw his 1st playing time in his NFL career LW with 180 yds (79%) & a 1-1 ratio
as the MIN defense didn?t prepare for him. SF is listless at 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS outside of div play but this is
a large number for a CIN team with nothing to play for & the official play will be released on Sat.
Arizona 27 NEW ORLEANS 24 -
This is the Cardinals final road game of the year (3-0 ATS) but are
off a road game vs SEA. They catch a NO team off a MNF game at ATL who may be without RB Bush
(sprained knee) for the rest of the year. NO is 6-16 ATS as a HF & ARZ is 5-1 ATS away vs a non-div
foe. The Cardinals lost to SEA 42-21 thanks to a 5-0 TO deficit. They struggled with a banged up WR
crew (Boldin-out, Fitzgerald-groin inj) & lost their offensive continuity with 5 Seahawk sacks. They did
finish outgaining SEA 355-349 albeit in garbage time. New Orleans went through an adjustment period
without McAlister & will now face the same without Bush (leading rusher & leading rec). The next
leading RB is Aaron Stecker whose ssn highs are 42 yds (3.2) vs CAR. The Saints are just 1-5 ATS at
home while ARZ is on a 7-1-1 ATS run on the road. NO?s is #26 in sacks & will be unable to pressure
QB Warner allowing him the time needed to throw deep to his healthier receivers exploiting the Saints
#28 pass defense. ARZ HC Whisenhunt still has his team playing hard & he has kept them focused
producing a stellar 5-0 ATS mark off a SU loss. These two teams are finishing the season with different
levels of enthusiasm & while the Saints can?t wait for the season to end the Cardinals truly believe they can sweep their last three games and finish the season at 9-7.
Baltimore 17 MIAMI 16 - The Ravens finally get a favorable matchup after facing the AFC?s 4 division
leaders & #6 seed CLE over the L6W. Their fall from 13-3 to 4-8 is the largest dropoff in the NFL so far
TY but they get a MIA team that seems to have quit on their 0-13 season. Despite their record BAL is
only avg 16 ypg less than LY & allowing 30 ypg more on defense. The biggest difference is that thru
12 gms LY BAL was +14 TO?s & they are -12 TO?s. A defense that held teams to 13 or less 7 times has
allowed 23 or more 7 times TY. MIA has been outgained 332-204 the L4W with an avg score of 25-9.
QB Beck was pulled LW & HC Cameron may not survive the season. They now face an angry & prideful
defense that has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in 15 games & are the only team allowing under 3.0
ypc. This game deals with the lesser of two evils here. The first is backing a Ravens team that is 2-10
ATS TY & 0-7 ATS as an AF the L3Y or a MIA squad that is 9-28 ATS at home. We?ll call for BAL to win
the game SU but don?t think an aging & beaten up team will have much energy here.
Green Bay 34 ST LOUIS 20 - This is the 4th meeting in 5 years & the favorite is 2-0-1 ATS. LY STL beat
GB 23-20 but pushed as a 3 pt HF. The Rams hit 3 FG?s to take a 23-13 lead but Favre put GB in the
game with a 46 yd TD pass. GB then drove to the STL 11 on their final drive but on 2 & 10 Favre stood
in the pocket too long & a STL DL popped the ball out & the Rams recovered to seal the win. GB is 10-3
ATS vs a foe with a losing record. STL is 4-12 ATS vs a foe with a winning record. The Packers have the
#3 & #9 units (+6 TO?s) vs the Rams #27 & #20 units (-8 TO?s) over the L4W. Favre showed no ill effects
from his elbow & shoulder injuries LW as he passed for 266 yds (65%) with 2-0 ratio (115.5 QBR). RB
Grant provided an outstanding balance with 156 yds (5.4) rushing as GB finished with 21-10 FD &
445-233 yd edges. Brock Berlin was forced to start for STL in poor weather as Bulger had concussion
complications. He passed for 153 yds (61%) with an int & STL was outgained 370-241. Bulger may return
here but he?ll be hard pressed to deal with a GB team that hasn?t yet locked up the #2 seed.
Jacksonville 24 PITTSBURGH 23 - JAX is 9-2 ATS vs PIT with an avg score of 19-13 as the NFL likes to
pair these teams up due to their similar physical run first & defensive styles. The Jags beat the Steelers 9-0
as a 3 pt HD in a MNF slugfest in Wk 2 LY. Roethlisberger made his 1st start after missing most of preseason
due to his accident & was very rusty passing for 141 yds (53%) with an 0-2 ratio. The Jags kept him out of
rhythm all game & finished with 17-9 FD & 362-153 yd edges. JAX is 7-2 as a non-div AD. PIT is 7-0 ATS at
home but have only hosted 1 team with a winning record & that was SEA travelling cross country after a road
game at SF. PIT was served a cold dish of ?humble pie? LW with NE beating them 34-13 as Brady slammed
the DB?s with 399 yds passing & 4 TD?s. JAX is off an easy win vs CAR as a 4H Key Selection posting a
427-149 yd edge & while Garrard wasn?t flashy (230 yds passing 55%, 2-0) he didn?t put the team in a bad
spot & works to the Jags strengths. The Jags are 5-1 ATS on the road upsetting TB, TEN & came within 3 pts
of IND in a game that they had 411-342 yd edge. While RB Parker leads the NFL with seven 100 yd rushing
games JAX has held its L5 foes to 70 ypg rushing (3.4) which is its avg on the road.
NEW ENGLAND 44 NY Jets 10 - NE is the largest favorite in NFL history. The Patriots stomped the Jets
38-14 as a 6.5 pt HF in the 1st meeting & as a reward were hit with Spygate. Belichick will have an extra
something special here after he was fined 500k, the franchise lost their 1st RD DC (though they?ll have a
top 5 DC from SF in 2008) & was hit with a 250k fine. NE comes in off 3 physical games vs PHI, BAL &
PIT & were so worn out after the BAL game that Belichick gave his players a film day last WED. They now
have a full week to rest & plan & don?t have a marquee matchup on deck. This is the 3rd road game in a 4
week span for the Jets & starting WR?s Cotchery (finger) & Coles (ankle) were hobbled LW. NE has outFD?d
foes 26-17 & outgained them 437-285 at home TY & this will be the 1st time they catch QB Clemens (3-2
ATS) who has passed for 210 ypg (53%) with a 3-5 ratio the L5W. NE has vastly more weapons on offense,
is healthier & more than enough motivation to make this a bloody game at the Razor.
Seattle 24 CAROLINA 13 - This is the 3rd road game for SEA in 4 weeks who just played at PHI 2 weeks
ago. This is CAR?s 3rd HG in 4 weeks but they are only 3-12-1 ATS at home. CAR has only won the yardage
battle in 4 games TY with 3 being vs the other NFC West teams where they are 3-0 SU & ATS with an
avg 356-230 yd edge (+9 TO?s) & 28-12 avg score. However, that was vs STL in the season opener when
Delhomme was at QB, vs ARZ with a QB edge in Testaverde & catching SF in their 4th road game in 5
weeks off an OT game. CAR?s offense went nowhere LW & were outFD 14-4 & outgained 204-67 at the
end of the 1H & gave up 27 unanswered pts in the 2H. SEA is peaking at just the right time as they are
on a 5-0 SU & ATS run with a solid pass defense that has a 5-11 ratio & 18 sacks in 5 games for a 30-17
avg score. SEA has wrapped up its 4th straight NFC West title while CAR is 0-5 SU & ATS vs teams with
a winning record TY and scoring 7 or less in 4 games. Despite the travel factors SEA gets the win.
Tennessee 17 KANSAS CITY 6 - Arrowhead historically gives KC a huge home edge in DEC (19-2 SU
& 15-4-2 ATS) & vs 1st & 2nd year QB?s in their 1st start KC is 19-3 SU. KC is only 1-5-1 ATS at home TY
scoring 13 or less 4 times & they had their smallest crowd in 6 years vs SD. KC?s #13 defense is wearing
down & they have allowed an avg of 175 ypg (5.7) or more rushing yds in 4 of their L5 games. Croyle is only
in his 4th start & defenses are dropping back & defending the pass as they aren?t concerned with 5th Rd DC
Kolby Smith at RB & KC has been outgained 365-230 the L3W. Both Smith (48 ypg 2.8 L2W) & TE Gonzalez
played thru sprained ankles LW & won?t be 100% vs a physical TEN team that blew a 14 pt lead to SD & lost
in OT. Young had another bad game with 121 yds passing (62%) with an 0-2 ratio (38.1 QBR) & despite a
125-64 yd edge in the 1H TEN couldn?t capitalize with an int, FG & a missed FG on 3 drives deep into SD
territory. TEN is 6-2 ATS on the road after a SU loss. Haynesworth played the entire game LW & while he may
miss practice should be ok, have outrushed teams 138 (4.1) to 82 (4.0) on the road TY. Look for them to take
advantage of a beat up KC OL that is 31st in sacks allowed (47) & Croyle will have a long day.
DALLAS 31 Philadelphia 17 - The Cowboys rolled the Eagles 38-17 as a 3 pt AF coming off their bye week
in the 1st meeting. Eagles HC Reid was distracted by family issues & Romo celebrated his new contract
with 324 yds passing (80%) with a 3-1 ratio as DAL had a 431-209 yd edge with 5:51 left. DAL is 2-6 ATS
as a Div HF & this is their final HG of the season (0-2 ATS). This is a tough matchup for PHI who goes from
facing the inconsistent Manning to Romo who is in line to set most of DAL?s single season passing records.
Romo is avg 281 ypg (67%) with 35-12 ratio & is being sacked once every 22 pass att?s. PHI pass defense
is on the lower end of avg (20th) with 236 ypg allowed (59%) but with a 16-7 ratio. LW was the 1st time in
3 years that McNabb started a game in Dec & DAL is 3-0 vs the PHI style def (NYG runs it) TY. While PHI
looks to be evenly matched statistically with DAL over the L4W (#6 & #20 vs #11 & #10) the Cowboys have
a lot of momentum, haven?t fully secured the #1 seed & are +6 TO?s vs PHI -8 TO?s on the year.
Washington at NY GIANTS - The Giants beat WAS 24-17 as a 3.5 pt AD in the 1st meeting & the home team
is 5-2 ATS. NYG trailed 17-3 at half & held WAS to 81 ttl yds in the 2H while scoring 21 unanswered points. NYG
used a great goal-line stand to fend off WAS who were at the 1 with :58 left in the game. The Redskins lost QB
Campbell to a dislocated knee vs CHI LW & are off B2B emotional games but the Giants under Manning are an
inconsistent team late in the year. The Sunday Night Marquee Play has tallied a 45-29 61% record L3Y after
11:00 am ET on Sun. Pick up the winner on the NC Debit Card for just $9 or at Welcome To Northcoast Sports.
Chicago at MINNESOTA - CHI comes in off a tough game LW vs WAS in which they lost QB Grossman
(knee) for the rest of the season & saw their playoff hopes dashed. CHI may take a look at QB Orton here
just to see how much he?s developed since his 15 starts in 2005. They catch a surprising MIN team that
beat them 34-31 as a 4.5 pt AD in the 1st meeting TY. RB Peterson rushed for 224 yds (11.2) as MIN
got their 1st road win in CHI since 2000. This is the Bears playoff game & Hester had a 89 yd PR & 81
yd pass in the 1st game which means the dog can?t be taken lightly here.
POINSETTIA BOWL
The Power Plays Projections are computer generated numbers. The
projected scores may not agree with our projected score listed on the
bottom of the writeup as PP is only one aspect of our handicapping.
IDA ATL
by 2 1/2 ✔?s
This is their 1st meeting but Utah faces a similar off every yr in MWC foe AF. This is a school record 5th
consec Navy bowl all under former HC Johnson (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) & the new HC Ken Niumatalolo (asst HC
with 10 yrs exp at Navy coaching the off) will be coaching his 1st gm. This is also UT?s 5th consec bowl and
they have won their last 6 and covered the last 5. Whittingham has been the DC at Utah S/?95 and this is his
8th bowl trip (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS). The Utes played 7 bowl elig tms TY and were 4-3 ATS outscoring foes 25-19 but
being outgained 374-323. Navy faced 4 bowl tms and went 1-3 SU & ATS being outscored 35-28 & outgained
474-405. UT was allotted 10,000 tickets but has struggled with sales as LY they sold 1,500 tickets and 4,000 the
yr prior. There is a large Naval presence in the SD area, and the last time Navy attended this bowl (?05 51-30
win over CSU, -3), they had 20,000+ fans which is one reason why Navy was guaranteed a spot last spring
(if they achieved 6 wins). They both played AF and Utah lost 20-12 being outgained 390-313 while Navy won
31-20 but was outgained 474-381. This is the final gm for 17 Ute seniors while Navy has 22 seniors. Utah is
6-2-1 ATS as a fav of 7+ the L/2Y, but Navy was 18-8 ATS as an AD under Johnson. After Utah?s loss to BYU
Nov 24th, they started practicing for Navy right away, even before the bowl matchups were announced. Navy
traditionally takes the wk after Army off for finals and may only practice 8-9 times prior to the bowl.
Navy came into the yr with just 3 returning starters on D, but in the 2nd gm of the yr they lost their
top ret tackler from ?06, LB Sovie and their starting FS Deliz (1 of only 3 seniors in the secondary) for the
yr. After that, the defense struggled mightily with the offense practically forced to score on every poss for
the Mids to win a gm. Luckily Kaheaku-Enhada proved to be a highly proficient triple option QB leading
the tm in rushing and able to get the ball downfield (17.3 yd per comp). Navy?s bevy of talented backs
have helped the Mids become the 1st team in NCAA history to lead the nation in rushing for 3 consec
yrs. Navy?s productive offense (#36) has forced the tm to punt only 21 times TY (least in nation). Navy?s
D finished #117 overall (438 ypg, 36.5 ppg all?d) and last in our pass eff D with 3 true frosh playing major
roles in the secondary. Navy finished with 4 straight wins incl ending their 43 gm losing streak to ND, and
the D held rival Army to 3 pts to clinch a school record 5th consec Commander-In-Chief?s Trophy.
Utah had high expectations heading into the ssn, but those were quickly put on the back burner when
QB Johnson and PS#17JC RB Matt Asiata went out during the 1st game. UT decided to pull the RS off of
Mack (#30 NCAA rushing) who ended the ssn with six 100 yd rushing gms. The Utes were struggling to find
an identity losing to AF to fall to 0-2 before demolishing UCLA 44-6. The next wk they were shutout for the
1st time S/?93 by lowly UNLV and Whittingham issued a challenge to his tm ?to decide who we want to be.?
Johnson returned vs Utah St and it was pretty clear who the Utes wanted to be as they went on to win 7 straight
incl a national TV upset of L?ville in Johnson?s 2nd gm back (312 pass yds). Johnson has missed some bowl
practices (shoulder again) but they are trying to work him in gradually and he should be fine for this one. The
OL has given up 28 sks (7.5%). They have lost 9 starters due to inj since fall camp, 4 of whom were lost for the
ssn and 5 who missed at least one gm. They now take on the nation?s top rush off but could be without their
top rush defender, Long, who suffered a shld?r separation (which Whittingham calls worse than Johnson?s) vs
BYU. He is listed as ?touch and go? for this gm (check philsteele.com). The Utes D rank #2 in both the NCAA
and our in pass eff D and #3 in the nation in scoring D. They have tallied 36 sks TY. MWC ST POY Sakoda
leads the nation for active dual K/P?s in career P?s and yds. Richards ranks #9 in the nation in PR avg.
After starting the ssn 1-3, Utah has the chance to finish with 9 wins for just the 5th time in school history.
LY Navy lost their bowl in heartbreaking fashion on a fmbl?d snap which set up a 37 yd gm winning FG
for BC which should serve as strong motivation. Fortunately Navy?s high-powered off shouldn?t drop-off too
much with new HC Niumatalolo taking over for Johnson who left just 2 wks prior to the bowl. Navy took the
wk off for finals after Army and won?t hit their full allotment of practices but service academies tend not get
distracted with the pageantry surrounding ?bowl week?. Navy?s offense has avg?d 49 ppg the L/5 and they?ve
needed them as their inj depleted D has allowed 40+ pts in 7 gms this ssn. Utah?s D finished the ssn with an
impressive 4 week run (7.5 ppg) but 3 of those gm were vs the #70 (CSU), #84 (NM), & #106 (WY) offenses.
Utah is the more balanced team and we?ll call for a 41-31 Utes win. We?ll also call for the ?over? as Utah can
move the ball on Navy?s D and the Midshipmen will have some new wrinkles on offense with their new HC. FORECAST: OVER 66.5 RATING: 3★
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
1st ever meeting. This is Memphis? 5th all-time bowl & 4th in 5 yrs under HC West. West is 2-1 SU &
ATS after going 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS as Clemson?s HC from ?93-?98. Mem?s last bowl was the ?05 Motor City
(38-31 win) where RB D?Angelo Williams set an NCAA rec with 34 career 100+ yard gms (bowl rec 238
yds on the day). For FAU this is their 1st ever bowl as they just started playing IA ball in ?04 becoming the
fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ?01 when they
didn?t have a FB team. He is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls, the last one was a win in the ?93 Liberty Bowl vs Mich
St, 18-7. He also won a Nat?l Championship with Miami in ?83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms going 1-5 SU
& 2-4 ATS being outgained 416-409 & outscored 35-28 incl a loss to Fla. Mem played 3 going 1-2 SU &
ATS being outgained 516-406 & outscored 46-30. They faced 2 common opp TY (Ark St, Mid Tenn). Mem
(0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) was outgained 440-322 & outscored 28-19 while FAU (2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS) outgained
them 393-237 & outscored them 31-23. Mem has 7 seniors among their 17 upperclassmen starters while
FAU has 5 seniors of their 14. FAU is 2-1 ATS on turf TY while Mem is 7-3 ATS on turf incl a 28-27 (+2?)
win here vs Tulane earlier TY. This is Mem?s 2nd trip to this bowl. In ?03 they broke the nation?s longest bowl
drought (beat N Texas 27-17) & are 3-0 SU & ATS in the Superdome. They are 8-2 ATS as an AD while
FAU is 4-1 ATS as an AF. Mem figures to have the crowd edge bringing 10,000 strong here in ?03.
FAU has our #59 rated off led by QB Smith (6-5 212) who was a 4x SBC POW TY incl the L/2W in
key wins which got them here. Smith matured in the 2H of the ssn avg 301 ypg (61%) with a 14-5 ratio
and going 4-2 to win the SBC Title. FAU has speedy WR?s and also utilizes their TE in the pass gm as 5
players have 23+ catches. The FAU run gm struggled outside the SBC avg just 99 ypg (2.7) although all
5 non-conf foes were BCS schools. RB Pierre led the tm but had zero 100 yd gms and FAU on the ssn
failed to have anyone break the 100 yd plateau. The OL is smallish avg 6?2? 262 with 1 Sr starter and
although inexperienced did improve down the stretch as they all?d 15 sks (3.2%) and opened holes for
127 ypg (3.5) on the year. The D, which had 15 sks, lost 2 good players in DL?s Pinnick & Savidge (knee
inj?s) but still played tough all?g just 142 ypg (4.1) the L/4 gms (ssn 180, 4.8). The LB corps may be the
best in the SBC as Joseph & Sincere are #1 & #2 tacklers in the conf. The secondary has had an int in 20
straight gms and rFr Polo has 7 on the yr. The Panthers rank #80 in our pass eff D (238 ypg, 65%, 24-19
ratio) and overall have our #83 ranked D all?g 34 ppg and 417 ypg.
Memphis started the year 2-4 having lost a teammate who was killed, playing 3 gms in 11 days and
losing QB Hankins to inj for 2 games. When Hankins returned he was on fire avg 351 ypg (60%) with a 17-7
ratio as the Tigers went 5-1 down the stretch. Memphis has 6 WR that are 6? or taller & 5 had 30+ catches
led by Calhoun (6?4?) who had four 100+ yd gms the L/6 & WR Singleton (6?8?) who had two 100+ yd games
in the L/4. Memphis struggled to run the ball early due to inj & had zero 100 yd rushers the 1st 6 gms. Sr
Doss, who got healthy the 2H of ssn, had two 165+ yd gms down the stretch. The Tiger O-Line, avg 6?4?
301 with 2 Sr starters led by RG Smith, is #9 in the NCAA all?g just 13 sacks (2.6%) and avg 140 ypg (3.9).
The Tigers have our #67 ranked offense. LY Mem fired DC Joe Lee Dunn after 3 gms & West changed the
3-3-5 to a 4-3. They struggled allowing 178 ypg rush (4.5) and 409 ypg (DL not a high recruiting priority).
This ssn they all?d a staggering 210 ypg (5.2) with 26 TD ranking #110 in NCAA. The DL avg 6?3? 258 with
no seniors listed in the 4 deep (great for ?08). The team only had 14 sks which ranked #111 in the NCAA
and allowed their 3 bowl foes 317 ypg rush (6.8). The LB corps was a strength despite losing OLB Greg
Jackson (inj) after 2 gms, Quinton McCrary (left tm in Nov) & Winston Bowens (inj) who filled in for Jackson.
Kasser took over and led the team in tkls. The secondary ranks #96 in our pass eff D all?g 230 ypg (62%)
with a 20-12 ratio. The Tigers allow a staggering 440 ypg and 31 ppg ranking #107 in our D rankings.
Memphis finished the ssn winning 5 of 6 gms incl 3 upsets as underdogs. HC West thought this bowl
was a perfect fit giving his young tm a chance at an 8 win ssn. Fla Atl started the ssn 3-1 incl knocking off
Minnesota giving us our Sept 5H Winner. They finished knocking off Troy as a 16 point underdog to earn this
spot as conference champions. Both tms are undervalued and it is unfortunate that they were paired up as we
looked to play on both of them. We do look for an entertaining high scoring gm with both offenses looking for
the ?home run? ball. The match-up with the tall receiving corps on both sides adds to this selection. Over the
L/6 games, both Mem & FAU?s final scores are over 70 ttl ppg and look for another high scoring affair here. FORECAST: OVER 67 RATING: 2★
(Phil Steele was 4-0 LW)
KEY SELECTIONS
4* TAMPA BAY over Atlanta - We won an easy 4H NFL GOM on Tampa Bay in the 1st meeting with
TB winning 31-7 as a 3 pt AF. Petrino went with Leftwich who had missed 3 Wks due to an ankle injury
over Harrington who had won 2 straight. TB turned 3 TO?s into 21 pts & ATL crippled themselves with
11 penalties for 105 yds in the game. TB is now 9-4-1 ATS vs ATL who were expected to start Chris
Redman on MNF. TB rested Garcia LW & while McCown was decent with 266 yds passing (66%) TB
couldn?t sustain any momentum. The Bucs missed a 50 yd FG & 2 fumbles set up 23 & 17 yd TD drives
& special teams allowed a 97 yd KR for a TD. TB is +11 TO?s at home. ATL is 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS (1 cover
by a point) vs teams with a winning record having been outFD?d 20-14 & outgained 346-253 with an avg
score of 25-9 TY. Despite LW?s setback TB is still in control of the NFC South & expect to see Garcia
wrap it up here. We?ll call for the same score as our GOM Winner.
FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 31 Atlanta 7
3* SAN DIEGO over Detroit - The Chargers rallied from 14 points down LW to send the game to OT
& win on a Tomlinson TD run. While Rivers struggled statistically (228 yds 53% with 2-2 ratio) he did
show a lot of moxie by coming back into the game with a sprained knee. DET is 2-6 ATS on grass while
SD is 5-2 ATS hosting an NFC team & 5-1 ATS at home. The key to this game is the Chargers huge
edge in the run game at home where they have outrushed foes 117 ypg (4.0) to 84 ypg (3.3) & vs a
DET team that has been outrushed 123 ypg (4.1) to 57 (3.5). SD has the #12 & #1 units (+2 TO?s) over
the L4W vs DET?s #14 & #32 units (-1 TO?s). DET looked to have stopped the bleeding with a 20-7 lead
vs DAL but saw it unravel when Romo led DAL on an 83 yd drive for the game winning TD inside the
final 2:00. They now travel to SD with 5 straight losses & Kitna?s ?10 win guarantee? is over. DET is just
2-4 SU & ATS on the road & has played just 1 team with a current winning record (MIN 7-6). In those 4
losses they have been manhandled getting outscored 41-14. We have won 3 straight with SD as a 3H
Key Selection & now get a DET team on the road off a game they controlled without its best WR Roy Williams.
FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 41 Detroit 17
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* CLEVELAND over Buffalo - Surprisingly CLE is just 1 game ahead of BUF for the final Wildcard
spot & both HC?s are in the running for Coach of the Year. CLE has the #8 & #32 units (+0 TO?s) vs BUF
who has the #28 & #30 units (+7) but that is due to a brutal schedule with 2 gms vs NE, DAL, JAX &
PIT. CLE is 12-3 ATS as a fav. BUF is 4-9 ATS away vs a non-div foe. CLE is 5-0 SU & ATS at home
with Anderson starting at QB who has passed for 279 ypg (64%) with a 12-4 ratio (106.2 QBR) in that
span. The Bills enter this game coming off a last second win vs WAS on a coaching blunder & blowing
out a historically bad MIA team. BUF had a 389-285 yd edge & forced 5 TO?s which were turned into
21 pts. CLE showed it can play power football in bad weather vs NYJ LW as they rushed for 152 yds
(5.2) in cold wet weather & BUF allows 135 ypg rush (4.3) on the road. The Browns game LW was kept
close due to repeated onside kicks by the Jets & CLE did wear down on the final 3 drives (149 yds).
Both teams special teams should offset each other but the Browns have more weapons on offense &
come away with the win. FORECAST: CLEVELAND 21 Buffalo 10
2* OAKLAND (+) over Indianapolis - The Colts come into this with a sizeable statistical advantage
(prior to SNF) with the #4 & #2 units (+11 TO?s) vs OAK #23 & #24 units (-7 TO?s). This is IND?s 3rd road
game in 4 Wks & final road game of the year (0-4 ATS). They are off B2B games vs physical defenses
& have HOU & TEN on deck. IND is 8-4 ATS as a DD fav. OAK is 2-6 ATS as a DD dog. Unlike previous
years in Dec (4-11 ATS) IND has something to play for here. OAK is 1-4 SU & ATS vs teams with a winning
record TY & was dominated at GB getting outgained 445-233 in a 38-7 loss. While the numbers above
certainly are slanted towards Indy we?ll now look at the emotional aspects. Indy is off a SNF meeting
with BAL & a win would put their magic number at just 1 to clinch a bye. They now travel from BAL back
home, then to the West Coast & play on a slow grass field. Since their opening loss to DET the Raiders
have only lost ONE game by over 11 points & that was a road trip to SD. While OAK may fade off the
beating they took LW it?s more likely they continue to play hard as they did in a 14 win over DEN & a 3
point road win at KC the previous 2 games. Grabbing DD?s against a disinterested Colts team makes
this a very attractive ?ugly dog? (16-7 70%). FORECAST: OAKLAND 13 (+) Indianapolis 20
OTHER GAMES:
Denver at HOUSTON - Thursday - This is the 1st regular season meeting between Mike Shanahan &
his former OC Gary Kubiak. It?s not very surprising that these teams are similar statistically with DEN
having the #5 & #22 units vs HOU #12 & #21 units. HOU is off an upset win vs TB converting 2 TO?s
into 14 pts & was helped out with a 97 yd KR TD. Rosenfels is 2-0 SU & ATS as a starter for HOU avg
195 ypg (69%) with a 4-1 ratio. DEN was in control of LW?s game from start to finish & had a 14-5 FD
& 304-103 yd edge at the end of the 1H. Neither team has a particular advantage due to coaching staff
familiarity & this will be a Marquee Selection. Call after noon ET on Thursday for the Marquee winner
for only $9 on your Northcoast Debit Card, a winner last Thursday with Washington!
Cincinnati at SAN FRANCISCO - Saturday - This has the Bengals #10 & #3 units the L4W vs the 49ers
#29 & #19 units. CIN took advantage of a STL team that was forced to start 3rd string QB Berlin LW & had a
15-5 FD & 300-130 yd edge at the end of the 3Q with a 16-7 score. SF may be without Dilfer (concussion)
here & 3rd string Shaun Hill saw his 1st playing time in his NFL career LW with 180 yds (79%) & a 1-1 ratio
as the MIN defense didn?t prepare for him. SF is listless at 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS outside of div play but this is
a large number for a CIN team with nothing to play for & the official play will be released on Sat.
Arizona 27 NEW ORLEANS 24 -
This is the Cardinals final road game of the year (3-0 ATS) but are
off a road game vs SEA. They catch a NO team off a MNF game at ATL who may be without RB Bush
(sprained knee) for the rest of the year. NO is 6-16 ATS as a HF & ARZ is 5-1 ATS away vs a non-div
foe. The Cardinals lost to SEA 42-21 thanks to a 5-0 TO deficit. They struggled with a banged up WR
crew (Boldin-out, Fitzgerald-groin inj) & lost their offensive continuity with 5 Seahawk sacks. They did
finish outgaining SEA 355-349 albeit in garbage time. New Orleans went through an adjustment period
without McAlister & will now face the same without Bush (leading rusher & leading rec). The next
leading RB is Aaron Stecker whose ssn highs are 42 yds (3.2) vs CAR. The Saints are just 1-5 ATS at
home while ARZ is on a 7-1-1 ATS run on the road. NO?s is #26 in sacks & will be unable to pressure
QB Warner allowing him the time needed to throw deep to his healthier receivers exploiting the Saints
#28 pass defense. ARZ HC Whisenhunt still has his team playing hard & he has kept them focused
producing a stellar 5-0 ATS mark off a SU loss. These two teams are finishing the season with different
levels of enthusiasm & while the Saints can?t wait for the season to end the Cardinals truly believe they can sweep their last three games and finish the season at 9-7.
Baltimore 17 MIAMI 16 - The Ravens finally get a favorable matchup after facing the AFC?s 4 division
leaders & #6 seed CLE over the L6W. Their fall from 13-3 to 4-8 is the largest dropoff in the NFL so far
TY but they get a MIA team that seems to have quit on their 0-13 season. Despite their record BAL is
only avg 16 ypg less than LY & allowing 30 ypg more on defense. The biggest difference is that thru
12 gms LY BAL was +14 TO?s & they are -12 TO?s. A defense that held teams to 13 or less 7 times has
allowed 23 or more 7 times TY. MIA has been outgained 332-204 the L4W with an avg score of 25-9.
QB Beck was pulled LW & HC Cameron may not survive the season. They now face an angry & prideful
defense that has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in 15 games & are the only team allowing under 3.0
ypc. This game deals with the lesser of two evils here. The first is backing a Ravens team that is 2-10
ATS TY & 0-7 ATS as an AF the L3Y or a MIA squad that is 9-28 ATS at home. We?ll call for BAL to win
the game SU but don?t think an aging & beaten up team will have much energy here.
Green Bay 34 ST LOUIS 20 - This is the 4th meeting in 5 years & the favorite is 2-0-1 ATS. LY STL beat
GB 23-20 but pushed as a 3 pt HF. The Rams hit 3 FG?s to take a 23-13 lead but Favre put GB in the
game with a 46 yd TD pass. GB then drove to the STL 11 on their final drive but on 2 & 10 Favre stood
in the pocket too long & a STL DL popped the ball out & the Rams recovered to seal the win. GB is 10-3
ATS vs a foe with a losing record. STL is 4-12 ATS vs a foe with a winning record. The Packers have the
#3 & #9 units (+6 TO?s) vs the Rams #27 & #20 units (-8 TO?s) over the L4W. Favre showed no ill effects
from his elbow & shoulder injuries LW as he passed for 266 yds (65%) with 2-0 ratio (115.5 QBR). RB
Grant provided an outstanding balance with 156 yds (5.4) rushing as GB finished with 21-10 FD &
445-233 yd edges. Brock Berlin was forced to start for STL in poor weather as Bulger had concussion
complications. He passed for 153 yds (61%) with an int & STL was outgained 370-241. Bulger may return
here but he?ll be hard pressed to deal with a GB team that hasn?t yet locked up the #2 seed.
Jacksonville 24 PITTSBURGH 23 - JAX is 9-2 ATS vs PIT with an avg score of 19-13 as the NFL likes to
pair these teams up due to their similar physical run first & defensive styles. The Jags beat the Steelers 9-0
as a 3 pt HD in a MNF slugfest in Wk 2 LY. Roethlisberger made his 1st start after missing most of preseason
due to his accident & was very rusty passing for 141 yds (53%) with an 0-2 ratio. The Jags kept him out of
rhythm all game & finished with 17-9 FD & 362-153 yd edges. JAX is 7-2 as a non-div AD. PIT is 7-0 ATS at
home but have only hosted 1 team with a winning record & that was SEA travelling cross country after a road
game at SF. PIT was served a cold dish of ?humble pie? LW with NE beating them 34-13 as Brady slammed
the DB?s with 399 yds passing & 4 TD?s. JAX is off an easy win vs CAR as a 4H Key Selection posting a
427-149 yd edge & while Garrard wasn?t flashy (230 yds passing 55%, 2-0) he didn?t put the team in a bad
spot & works to the Jags strengths. The Jags are 5-1 ATS on the road upsetting TB, TEN & came within 3 pts
of IND in a game that they had 411-342 yd edge. While RB Parker leads the NFL with seven 100 yd rushing
games JAX has held its L5 foes to 70 ypg rushing (3.4) which is its avg on the road.
NEW ENGLAND 44 NY Jets 10 - NE is the largest favorite in NFL history. The Patriots stomped the Jets
38-14 as a 6.5 pt HF in the 1st meeting & as a reward were hit with Spygate. Belichick will have an extra
something special here after he was fined 500k, the franchise lost their 1st RD DC (though they?ll have a
top 5 DC from SF in 2008) & was hit with a 250k fine. NE comes in off 3 physical games vs PHI, BAL &
PIT & were so worn out after the BAL game that Belichick gave his players a film day last WED. They now
have a full week to rest & plan & don?t have a marquee matchup on deck. This is the 3rd road game in a 4
week span for the Jets & starting WR?s Cotchery (finger) & Coles (ankle) were hobbled LW. NE has outFD?d
foes 26-17 & outgained them 437-285 at home TY & this will be the 1st time they catch QB Clemens (3-2
ATS) who has passed for 210 ypg (53%) with a 3-5 ratio the L5W. NE has vastly more weapons on offense,
is healthier & more than enough motivation to make this a bloody game at the Razor.
Seattle 24 CAROLINA 13 - This is the 3rd road game for SEA in 4 weeks who just played at PHI 2 weeks
ago. This is CAR?s 3rd HG in 4 weeks but they are only 3-12-1 ATS at home. CAR has only won the yardage
battle in 4 games TY with 3 being vs the other NFC West teams where they are 3-0 SU & ATS with an
avg 356-230 yd edge (+9 TO?s) & 28-12 avg score. However, that was vs STL in the season opener when
Delhomme was at QB, vs ARZ with a QB edge in Testaverde & catching SF in their 4th road game in 5
weeks off an OT game. CAR?s offense went nowhere LW & were outFD 14-4 & outgained 204-67 at the
end of the 1H & gave up 27 unanswered pts in the 2H. SEA is peaking at just the right time as they are
on a 5-0 SU & ATS run with a solid pass defense that has a 5-11 ratio & 18 sacks in 5 games for a 30-17
avg score. SEA has wrapped up its 4th straight NFC West title while CAR is 0-5 SU & ATS vs teams with
a winning record TY and scoring 7 or less in 4 games. Despite the travel factors SEA gets the win.
Tennessee 17 KANSAS CITY 6 - Arrowhead historically gives KC a huge home edge in DEC (19-2 SU
& 15-4-2 ATS) & vs 1st & 2nd year QB?s in their 1st start KC is 19-3 SU. KC is only 1-5-1 ATS at home TY
scoring 13 or less 4 times & they had their smallest crowd in 6 years vs SD. KC?s #13 defense is wearing
down & they have allowed an avg of 175 ypg (5.7) or more rushing yds in 4 of their L5 games. Croyle is only
in his 4th start & defenses are dropping back & defending the pass as they aren?t concerned with 5th Rd DC
Kolby Smith at RB & KC has been outgained 365-230 the L3W. Both Smith (48 ypg 2.8 L2W) & TE Gonzalez
played thru sprained ankles LW & won?t be 100% vs a physical TEN team that blew a 14 pt lead to SD & lost
in OT. Young had another bad game with 121 yds passing (62%) with an 0-2 ratio (38.1 QBR) & despite a
125-64 yd edge in the 1H TEN couldn?t capitalize with an int, FG & a missed FG on 3 drives deep into SD
territory. TEN is 6-2 ATS on the road after a SU loss. Haynesworth played the entire game LW & while he may
miss practice should be ok, have outrushed teams 138 (4.1) to 82 (4.0) on the road TY. Look for them to take
advantage of a beat up KC OL that is 31st in sacks allowed (47) & Croyle will have a long day.
DALLAS 31 Philadelphia 17 - The Cowboys rolled the Eagles 38-17 as a 3 pt AF coming off their bye week
in the 1st meeting. Eagles HC Reid was distracted by family issues & Romo celebrated his new contract
with 324 yds passing (80%) with a 3-1 ratio as DAL had a 431-209 yd edge with 5:51 left. DAL is 2-6 ATS
as a Div HF & this is their final HG of the season (0-2 ATS). This is a tough matchup for PHI who goes from
facing the inconsistent Manning to Romo who is in line to set most of DAL?s single season passing records.
Romo is avg 281 ypg (67%) with 35-12 ratio & is being sacked once every 22 pass att?s. PHI pass defense
is on the lower end of avg (20th) with 236 ypg allowed (59%) but with a 16-7 ratio. LW was the 1st time in
3 years that McNabb started a game in Dec & DAL is 3-0 vs the PHI style def (NYG runs it) TY. While PHI
looks to be evenly matched statistically with DAL over the L4W (#6 & #20 vs #11 & #10) the Cowboys have
a lot of momentum, haven?t fully secured the #1 seed & are +6 TO?s vs PHI -8 TO?s on the year.
Washington at NY GIANTS - The Giants beat WAS 24-17 as a 3.5 pt AD in the 1st meeting & the home team
is 5-2 ATS. NYG trailed 17-3 at half & held WAS to 81 ttl yds in the 2H while scoring 21 unanswered points. NYG
used a great goal-line stand to fend off WAS who were at the 1 with :58 left in the game. The Redskins lost QB
Campbell to a dislocated knee vs CHI LW & are off B2B emotional games but the Giants under Manning are an
inconsistent team late in the year. The Sunday Night Marquee Play has tallied a 45-29 61% record L3Y after
11:00 am ET on Sun. Pick up the winner on the NC Debit Card for just $9 or at Welcome To Northcoast Sports.
Chicago at MINNESOTA - CHI comes in off a tough game LW vs WAS in which they lost QB Grossman
(knee) for the rest of the season & saw their playoff hopes dashed. CHI may take a look at QB Orton here
just to see how much he?s developed since his 15 starts in 2005. They catch a surprising MIN team that
beat them 34-31 as a 4.5 pt AD in the 1st meeting TY. RB Peterson rushed for 224 yds (11.2) as MIN
got their 1st road win in CHI since 2000. This is the Bears playoff game & Hester had a 89 yd PR & 81
yd pass in the 1st game which means the dog can?t be taken lightly here.
POINSETTIA BOWL
The Power Plays Projections are computer generated numbers. The
projected scores may not agree with our projected score listed on the
bottom of the writeup as PP is only one aspect of our handicapping.
IDA ATL
by 2 1/2 ✔?s
This is their 1st meeting but Utah faces a similar off every yr in MWC foe AF. This is a school record 5th
consec Navy bowl all under former HC Johnson (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) & the new HC Ken Niumatalolo (asst HC
with 10 yrs exp at Navy coaching the off) will be coaching his 1st gm. This is also UT?s 5th consec bowl and
they have won their last 6 and covered the last 5. Whittingham has been the DC at Utah S/?95 and this is his
8th bowl trip (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS). The Utes played 7 bowl elig tms TY and were 4-3 ATS outscoring foes 25-19 but
being outgained 374-323. Navy faced 4 bowl tms and went 1-3 SU & ATS being outscored 35-28 & outgained
474-405. UT was allotted 10,000 tickets but has struggled with sales as LY they sold 1,500 tickets and 4,000 the
yr prior. There is a large Naval presence in the SD area, and the last time Navy attended this bowl (?05 51-30
win over CSU, -3), they had 20,000+ fans which is one reason why Navy was guaranteed a spot last spring
(if they achieved 6 wins). They both played AF and Utah lost 20-12 being outgained 390-313 while Navy won
31-20 but was outgained 474-381. This is the final gm for 17 Ute seniors while Navy has 22 seniors. Utah is
6-2-1 ATS as a fav of 7+ the L/2Y, but Navy was 18-8 ATS as an AD under Johnson. After Utah?s loss to BYU
Nov 24th, they started practicing for Navy right away, even before the bowl matchups were announced. Navy
traditionally takes the wk after Army off for finals and may only practice 8-9 times prior to the bowl.
Navy came into the yr with just 3 returning starters on D, but in the 2nd gm of the yr they lost their
top ret tackler from ?06, LB Sovie and their starting FS Deliz (1 of only 3 seniors in the secondary) for the
yr. After that, the defense struggled mightily with the offense practically forced to score on every poss for
the Mids to win a gm. Luckily Kaheaku-Enhada proved to be a highly proficient triple option QB leading
the tm in rushing and able to get the ball downfield (17.3 yd per comp). Navy?s bevy of talented backs
have helped the Mids become the 1st team in NCAA history to lead the nation in rushing for 3 consec
yrs. Navy?s productive offense (#36) has forced the tm to punt only 21 times TY (least in nation). Navy?s
D finished #117 overall (438 ypg, 36.5 ppg all?d) and last in our pass eff D with 3 true frosh playing major
roles in the secondary. Navy finished with 4 straight wins incl ending their 43 gm losing streak to ND, and
the D held rival Army to 3 pts to clinch a school record 5th consec Commander-In-Chief?s Trophy.
Utah had high expectations heading into the ssn, but those were quickly put on the back burner when
QB Johnson and PS#17JC RB Matt Asiata went out during the 1st game. UT decided to pull the RS off of
Mack (#30 NCAA rushing) who ended the ssn with six 100 yd rushing gms. The Utes were struggling to find
an identity losing to AF to fall to 0-2 before demolishing UCLA 44-6. The next wk they were shutout for the
1st time S/?93 by lowly UNLV and Whittingham issued a challenge to his tm ?to decide who we want to be.?
Johnson returned vs Utah St and it was pretty clear who the Utes wanted to be as they went on to win 7 straight
incl a national TV upset of L?ville in Johnson?s 2nd gm back (312 pass yds). Johnson has missed some bowl
practices (shoulder again) but they are trying to work him in gradually and he should be fine for this one. The
OL has given up 28 sks (7.5%). They have lost 9 starters due to inj since fall camp, 4 of whom were lost for the
ssn and 5 who missed at least one gm. They now take on the nation?s top rush off but could be without their
top rush defender, Long, who suffered a shld?r separation (which Whittingham calls worse than Johnson?s) vs
BYU. He is listed as ?touch and go? for this gm (check philsteele.com). The Utes D rank #2 in both the NCAA
and our in pass eff D and #3 in the nation in scoring D. They have tallied 36 sks TY. MWC ST POY Sakoda
leads the nation for active dual K/P?s in career P?s and yds. Richards ranks #9 in the nation in PR avg.
After starting the ssn 1-3, Utah has the chance to finish with 9 wins for just the 5th time in school history.
LY Navy lost their bowl in heartbreaking fashion on a fmbl?d snap which set up a 37 yd gm winning FG
for BC which should serve as strong motivation. Fortunately Navy?s high-powered off shouldn?t drop-off too
much with new HC Niumatalolo taking over for Johnson who left just 2 wks prior to the bowl. Navy took the
wk off for finals after Army and won?t hit their full allotment of practices but service academies tend not get
distracted with the pageantry surrounding ?bowl week?. Navy?s offense has avg?d 49 ppg the L/5 and they?ve
needed them as their inj depleted D has allowed 40+ pts in 7 gms this ssn. Utah?s D finished the ssn with an
impressive 4 week run (7.5 ppg) but 3 of those gm were vs the #70 (CSU), #84 (NM), & #106 (WY) offenses.
Utah is the more balanced team and we?ll call for a 41-31 Utes win. We?ll also call for the ?over? as Utah can
move the ball on Navy?s D and the Midshipmen will have some new wrinkles on offense with their new HC. FORECAST: OVER 66.5 RATING: 3★
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
1st ever meeting. This is Memphis? 5th all-time bowl & 4th in 5 yrs under HC West. West is 2-1 SU &
ATS after going 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS as Clemson?s HC from ?93-?98. Mem?s last bowl was the ?05 Motor City
(38-31 win) where RB D?Angelo Williams set an NCAA rec with 34 career 100+ yard gms (bowl rec 238
yds on the day). For FAU this is their 1st ever bowl as they just started playing IA ball in ?04 becoming the
fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ?01 when they
didn?t have a FB team. He is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls, the last one was a win in the ?93 Liberty Bowl vs Mich
St, 18-7. He also won a Nat?l Championship with Miami in ?83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms going 1-5 SU
& 2-4 ATS being outgained 416-409 & outscored 35-28 incl a loss to Fla. Mem played 3 going 1-2 SU &
ATS being outgained 516-406 & outscored 46-30. They faced 2 common opp TY (Ark St, Mid Tenn). Mem
(0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) was outgained 440-322 & outscored 28-19 while FAU (2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS) outgained
them 393-237 & outscored them 31-23. Mem has 7 seniors among their 17 upperclassmen starters while
FAU has 5 seniors of their 14. FAU is 2-1 ATS on turf TY while Mem is 7-3 ATS on turf incl a 28-27 (+2?)
win here vs Tulane earlier TY. This is Mem?s 2nd trip to this bowl. In ?03 they broke the nation?s longest bowl
drought (beat N Texas 27-17) & are 3-0 SU & ATS in the Superdome. They are 8-2 ATS as an AD while
FAU is 4-1 ATS as an AF. Mem figures to have the crowd edge bringing 10,000 strong here in ?03.
FAU has our #59 rated off led by QB Smith (6-5 212) who was a 4x SBC POW TY incl the L/2W in
key wins which got them here. Smith matured in the 2H of the ssn avg 301 ypg (61%) with a 14-5 ratio
and going 4-2 to win the SBC Title. FAU has speedy WR?s and also utilizes their TE in the pass gm as 5
players have 23+ catches. The FAU run gm struggled outside the SBC avg just 99 ypg (2.7) although all
5 non-conf foes were BCS schools. RB Pierre led the tm but had zero 100 yd gms and FAU on the ssn
failed to have anyone break the 100 yd plateau. The OL is smallish avg 6?2? 262 with 1 Sr starter and
although inexperienced did improve down the stretch as they all?d 15 sks (3.2%) and opened holes for
127 ypg (3.5) on the year. The D, which had 15 sks, lost 2 good players in DL?s Pinnick & Savidge (knee
inj?s) but still played tough all?g just 142 ypg (4.1) the L/4 gms (ssn 180, 4.8). The LB corps may be the
best in the SBC as Joseph & Sincere are #1 & #2 tacklers in the conf. The secondary has had an int in 20
straight gms and rFr Polo has 7 on the yr. The Panthers rank #80 in our pass eff D (238 ypg, 65%, 24-19
ratio) and overall have our #83 ranked D all?g 34 ppg and 417 ypg.
Memphis started the year 2-4 having lost a teammate who was killed, playing 3 gms in 11 days and
losing QB Hankins to inj for 2 games. When Hankins returned he was on fire avg 351 ypg (60%) with a 17-7
ratio as the Tigers went 5-1 down the stretch. Memphis has 6 WR that are 6? or taller & 5 had 30+ catches
led by Calhoun (6?4?) who had four 100+ yd gms the L/6 & WR Singleton (6?8?) who had two 100+ yd games
in the L/4. Memphis struggled to run the ball early due to inj & had zero 100 yd rushers the 1st 6 gms. Sr
Doss, who got healthy the 2H of ssn, had two 165+ yd gms down the stretch. The Tiger O-Line, avg 6?4?
301 with 2 Sr starters led by RG Smith, is #9 in the NCAA all?g just 13 sacks (2.6%) and avg 140 ypg (3.9).
The Tigers have our #67 ranked offense. LY Mem fired DC Joe Lee Dunn after 3 gms & West changed the
3-3-5 to a 4-3. They struggled allowing 178 ypg rush (4.5) and 409 ypg (DL not a high recruiting priority).
This ssn they all?d a staggering 210 ypg (5.2) with 26 TD ranking #110 in NCAA. The DL avg 6?3? 258 with
no seniors listed in the 4 deep (great for ?08). The team only had 14 sks which ranked #111 in the NCAA
and allowed their 3 bowl foes 317 ypg rush (6.8). The LB corps was a strength despite losing OLB Greg
Jackson (inj) after 2 gms, Quinton McCrary (left tm in Nov) & Winston Bowens (inj) who filled in for Jackson.
Kasser took over and led the team in tkls. The secondary ranks #96 in our pass eff D all?g 230 ypg (62%)
with a 20-12 ratio. The Tigers allow a staggering 440 ypg and 31 ppg ranking #107 in our D rankings.
Memphis finished the ssn winning 5 of 6 gms incl 3 upsets as underdogs. HC West thought this bowl
was a perfect fit giving his young tm a chance at an 8 win ssn. Fla Atl started the ssn 3-1 incl knocking off
Minnesota giving us our Sept 5H Winner. They finished knocking off Troy as a 16 point underdog to earn this
spot as conference champions. Both tms are undervalued and it is unfortunate that they were paired up as we
looked to play on both of them. We do look for an entertaining high scoring gm with both offenses looking for
the ?home run? ball. The match-up with the tall receiving corps on both sides adds to this selection. Over the
L/6 games, both Mem & FAU?s final scores are over 70 ttl ppg and look for another high scoring affair here. FORECAST: OVER 67 RATING: 2★
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