Newsletters 9/17-9/21

[the duke]

Red Sheet

MINNESOTA 31 - Florida Atlantic 14 - (12 Noon EDT) -- Line opened at Minnesota minus 7, & is now minus 6?. No questioning the fact that the Gophers "stunk out the joint" year ago, in Brewster's first year, as Minny's normally overpowering running game wound up just 48th in the nation, en route to an unimaginable 1-11 campaign, coming directly on the heels of 5 consecutive bowl years. And one of those 11 setbacks came in a trip to Ft Lauderdale, to take on the Owls. Gophers entered off a pair of OT games, with BigTen play (Purdue) the following week. The result, a 42-39 loss, featuring 7 TOS, with FA QB Smith burning them for 463 yds. Minny (3-0) has improved on all phases, so we color this one payback. RATING: MINNESOTA 89

CINCINNATI 24 - Miami-Ohio 23 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Cincinnati minus 13, & is now minus 11?. Much like the above selection, the Redhawks of Miami have a score to settle, after being blasted 47-10 by the Bearcats a year ago. In '07, Cincy was the master of the takeaway, & didn't disappoint in their demolition of Miami, a the 'Hawks turned it over 4 times, & had a punt blocked to boot. But things have changed dramatically since that encounter, as Miami returns 17 starters from last year's team which eventually made it to the MAC title game. The 'Cats are knee deep in QB trouble, as they are without LY's standout Mauk, with his replacement Grutza, is out (ankle). Line is more than juicy for this circled contest.RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 89

MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Notre Dame 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 7, & is now minus 8?. Well, the Irish came through for us as a 3* Phone Play, in their 35-17 win over Michigan a week ago (19? pt cover), but a closer look shows that they did it mainly by the big play, as no less than 6 Michigan TOs paved the way. Just 14 Irish FDs, along with 388-260 yd deficit. NotreDame is averaging only 3.2 ypr in the early going, including a 3.1 ypr effort the previous wk, vs a SnDiegoSt team which was mauled for 293 RYs the following week. The Spartans completely dominated the Irish a year ago, holding ND to just 9 FDs. Not only that but MSt is smoking behind Ringer (282 RYs LW), & QB Hoyer. Totally focused.
RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88

SO MISSISSIPPI 47 - Marshall 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at SoMiss minus 10, & is now minus 9?. The line movement on this one is puzzling, as the Eagles of SoMiss have opened impressively, standing at 3-0 ATS, behind the throwing of RS frosh Davis, & the running of the steady Fletcher, who is accustomed to burning the Herd (151 & 152 yds the past 2 yrs). So take note of the Eagles winning their last series hoster by a 42-7 count (28-pt cover). This is SoMiss' 2nd home game of the season, so check piling up 30 FDs, 427 RYs, & 633 Total Yards in their first hoster, a 20-pt cover. Marshall is improved, but was mauled by 37 in its only road game to date, & has allowed at least 35 pts in 4 of its last 6 lined tilts. RATING: SO MISSISSIPPI 88

Rutgers 45 - NAVY 31 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Rutgers minus 4, & is now minus 4?. This contest is a classic "must-win" setup for the Knights, who've been a genuine embarrassment in the early going. They lost only 7 starters from LY's bowl squad, with high hopes from the faithful. But things have been a genuine nightmare so far, with a combined 68-19 scoring deficit in their 0-2 start (minus 68 pts ATS). Are an amazing 122 pts behind the pts in 9 of their last 10 regular season games. The Middies never have trouble moving it, but haveallowed 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 games. It's now-or-never for the Knights. Now! RATING: RUTGERS 88

NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Cincinnati 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NYGiants minus 13?, & is now minus 13. That's right, we've gone against the defending champions in both of their games so far, figuring the losses of Strahan & Umenyiora on that defensive line would be a bit too much to overcome, in trying to match LY's splendid defense, which simply ruled the post season. But the 'Skins were completely stymied in their opener, with Manning & Co exploding in game 2. Sure, the Rams post the worst "D" in the NFL, but this Bengal squad is knee deep in problems, with team unity nowhere to be found. Palmer has led an "O" which has managed just 17 pts & 19 FDs in its 2 outings to date, & won't dent NY "D". RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Connecticut, Missouri, PennSt, Oregon -- NFL: Seattle, Carolina, SanDiego
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Missouri (-31 to -33?); Mississippi (-4? to -6?); Tulane (-4? to -6); Miami-Ohio (+13 to +11?); LSU (-1? to -3); Alabama (-8 to -9?); MichiganSt (-7 to -8?); BoiseSt (+13? to +12); Miami-Fla (-2? to -4); SoFlorida (-26? to -28) - NFL: Miami (+13? to +12?). -- TIMECHANGES: Mississippi/Vanderbilt: now 7:00; GaTech/Mississippi: now 1:00; WakeForest/FloridaSt: now 7:00; Miami-Fla/TexasA&M: now 3:30; EastCaro/NCSt: now Noon -- KEY INJURIES: AirForce FB Newell (ankle) probable; Akron RB Allen (hip) questionable; Cincinnati QB Grutza (ankle) out; Eastern Michigan QB Schmitt questionable; GaTech RB Dwyer (back) probable; Maryland RB Scott (shoulder) questionable; Nevada RB Lippincott (ACL) out; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) questionable; Oregon QB Roper (knee) out; TexasA&M RB G d (k ) T A&M QB M G ( h ld ) i b



Pointwise

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
MICHIGAN STATE over Notre Dame RATING: 1
MISSOURI over Buffalo RATING: 1
EAST CAROLINA over No Caro St RATING: 2
TENNESSEE over Florida RATING: 3
TCU over Smu RATING: 4
SO MISSISSIPPI over Marshall RATING: 4
FRESNO STATE over Toledo RATING: 5
BYU over Wyoming RATING: 5

NFL KEY RELEASES
SEATTLE over St Louis RATING: 2
SAN DIEGO over New York Jets RATING: 3
BUFFALO over Oakland RATING: 4
NEW YORK GIANTS over Cincinnati RATING: 5
DENVER over New Orleans RATING: 5



Phil Steele

4* Power Plays

Penn State over Temple 39-8
BYU over Wyoming 42-6
Auburn (+) over LSU
Alabama over Arkansas 34-20
Houston over Colorado State 35-28
North Carolina over Virginia Tech 25-19
Utah over Air Force 34-20
Purdue over Central Michigan 41-27
Maryland over Eastern Michigan 35-10
Florida over Tennessee 35-23
Ohio State over Troy 36-11

NFL

San Francisco over Detroit 35-24

 

[the duke]

Power Sweep

4H Utah over AIR FORCE - AF is on a 9-0 ATS run! Utah has won 4 of the L/5 over AF but was upset LY 20-12 after being stopped twice on the 1 yd line in the final 1:25 (UT inj riddled in that gm). Last time here Utah got a FG on the last play to win 17-14 (-1). The Utes are in a legitimate lone home loss revenge situation. LW they laid the hammer to Utah St, 58-10 in a dominating road win. Utah outgained USU 445-116 & held them under 100 ttl yds until the L/3:00 of the gm. QB Johnson is avg 231 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. RB Asiata has been seen taking snaps behind center & leads with 167 yds rush (4.8) but LY?s star, Mack, has 160 (4.6). AF had to fight off a late rally (up 31-7 mid-3Q) in a 31-28 win over an emotionally drained Houston team and in a gm that was moved up to avoid the threat of Ike. AF was outgained 534-380 and held to 0 yds passing further depleting QB Smith?s passing stats (30 ypg, 48%, 1-1 ratio) but he is the #2 rusher with 227 (4.5). Halderman is #1 with 238 rush yds (11.9) and Lumpkin has added 222 (4.0). AF & Utah have comb to avg 61 ppg S/?83 (22 gms). AF went 4-2 LY as a dog (24-18 L/10 as a dog) but is just 2-5 as a HD. Utah is just 4-8 as an AF (7-12 as MWC AF). This is the Utes 3rd road game in 4 wks while AF has a bye on deck. Although AF has opened the ssn strong and is on the ATS run, the last time Utah had a team this good (?04) they won their 3 MWC road games by 20 ppg. FORECAST: Utah 34 AIR FORCE 17

3H PURDUE over Central Michigan - This is their 3rd meeting in a year. LY we won with a 4H Key Selection on these pages on Purdue (-21?) at home and they covered 45-22 after jumping out to a 38-0 lead. They then met in the Motor City Bowl and Purdue led 34-13 at the half but only prevailed 51-48. CM has 16 ret starters to just 12 for PU but both offenses are stronger so this should be a shootout. CM is on their 3rd straight road gm, in a MAC sandwich and has not put a lot into IA non-conf gms as they were outscored 234-104 LY and lost to Georgia 56-17 (+24?). CM trailed Ohio 14-10 and had to come from behind for a 31-28 win despite being outgained 513-431 as Ohio fmbl?d the possible gm winning TD into the EZ. Purdue is off a frustrating loss as they led 20-3 in the 2Q but all?d Oregon to tie it, and missed a gm winning FG at the end of regulation, losing 32-26 in 2OT?s. They were outgained 503-408 by the #16 Ducks. Purdue has the def edge (#75-115) but CM has the off edge (#27-50) and has played the tougher schedule (#45-93). Based from their experience LY, Purdue won?t lay off the pedal. FORECAST: PURDUE 41 Central Michigan 24

3H PENN ST over Temple - Five members of the TU?s staff, including HC Golden played under Paterno. PSU won LY?s game in Philly 31-0 in front of 85% Lions fans with a 462-242 yd edge (Temple 4 yds rush) as Penn St transfer QB DiMichele DNP. The Lions have their B10 opener on deck and did not cover vs Buff LY in the same spot. Temple has 22 ret starters but is in a MAC sandwich. Penn St is 11-5-1 as a HF. We won with PSU as a 4H on these pages LW vs Syracuse as the Lions dominated with 26-8 FD & 560-159 yd edges. QB Clark has mastered the Spread HD offense avg 175 ypg (60%) with a 5-0 ratio. Royster has 306 yds (8.1). Temple has lost 2 heartbreakers in a row with an OT loss to Conn and on a Hail Mary TD pass to Buffalo last week. QB DiMichele avg 205 ypg (60%) with a 5-3 ratio. TU?s allowing 201 rush ypg (4.2) which spells trouble as the Lions haven?t let up on the gas yet. FORECAST: PENN ST 44 Temple 13

OTHER SELECTIONS

2H Florida over TENNESSEE - Florida manhandled Tenn LY for Fulmer?s worst ever loss and UT?s worst loss in 37 meetings vs UF. We won a rare 4H Totals Play on the OVER in the 59-20 final. UT has avg just 13 ypg rush the L/ 2 meetings. LY UF had a young D with only 2 starters returning and faced UT behind veteran QB Ainge but only all?d 298 yds & 14 FD?s. TY UF?s #3 D (#4 pass D) has only all?d 6.5 ppg & 191 ypg and now faces UT QB Crompton who is only making his 4th career start. UF has now won 3 straight (2-1 ATS) and is 11-3-1 ATS in conf openers (Tenn 6 str times). They are, however, 2-7 ATS (but won the L2) as an SEC AF and have gone 0-3 ATS in their road opener under Meyer. Vol QB Crompton (PS#3) was shaky on the road in the opener, but led UT to a comfortable win over UAB LW and is avg 214 ypg (53%) with a 2-3 ratio. RB Foster has 196 (7.8) and the tm is avg 222 (5.9) rush ypg. UT?s #21 D all?d mobile UAB QB Webb 78 rush (5.6) but he only threw for 162 yds with 3 int. Tebow has been reined in a bit TY and is avg 197 ypg (61%) with a 3-0 ratio and 92 rush (4.2). The Vols have the SEC?s longest home win streak (9) and are 13-2 SU & 4-0 ATS as a HD. While UF is off a bye, UT had a bye 2 weeks ago. The Gators? now veteran D is faster than UT?s offense and that will be the difference in this one.FORECAST: Florida 34 TENNESSEE 20

2H Marshall (+) over SOUTHERN MISS - Last year Marshall was done in by 4 TO?s as they fell behind 20-0 in Huntington and are now 0-3 SU all-time losing by an avg of 34-18. Marshall comes in off a conf home win vs Memphis, despite being outgained 462-403 by the Tigers. Marshall held Memphis, who came in avg 30 ppg and 170 ypg on the ground, to 16 pts and 94 yds rushing. SMiss RB Fletcher has topped 150+ yards rushing in both of his games vs the Herd but they do have a new offense and he was held to 87 yds (3.8) LW vs Ark St. SMiss was outgained 447-348, but capitalized on the Red Wolves? 2 TO?s and a ST miscue. SMiss is 29-12 SU and 24-17 at home vs CUSA but that was all under coach Bower while Marshall is 5-11 ATS vs their own division. SM has just 10 ret sts (Marshall 17). SM has a bye on deck and is just 3-8 ATS before a bye. Marshall travels to WVU next week, but don?t look for the Herd to be thinking ahead. Previously MU got pounded on the ground vs SMiss but those days should be over as the Herd are well equipped to stop the Eagles new offense. FORECAST: Marshall 24 (+) SOUTHERN MISS 27

2H Notre Dame (+) over MICHIGAN ST - The visitor has won 7 in a row SU in the series (6-0-1 ATS) with MSU the 1st ever opp to win 6 straight in South Bend. Last time here began the downfall of ex-coach Smith as MSU blew a 31-14 3Q lead and lost. LY the Spartans won by 17 on the road with a 354-203 yd edge. MSU is just 5-9 as a HF and the Irish are 6-2 as an AD. This is ND?s road opener and they are off a 35-17 win over rival Mich as we had a 2H on the Irish on these pages. The Irish jumped out to a 21-0 lead thanks in part to 6 Michigan TO?s on a wet field as the Wolves outgained the Irish 388-260 and outFD?d them 21-14. QB Clausen avg 192 ypg (56%) with a 5-4 ratio. MSU went to the ground in the rain as RB Ringer (498, 4.8) had 282 yds as the Spartans shutout FAU. In that game the Owls had a 1Q 74 yd TD run called back and botched a FG on a bad snap. MSU has all of the edges (#36-45 off, #32-53 D & #87-112 ST?s) but this is the odd series where the home field is a disadvantage. FORECAST: Notre Dame 23 (+) MICHIGAN ST 26

OTHER GAMES

Wednesday, September 17th - Kansas St at LOUISVILLE - KSU held the nation?s top scoring off (#8 UL) to less than half its avg & fewest pts in nearly a yr in their last & only meeting in ?06 (Prince?s 1st yr as HC). We did win a 3H LPS as the Cards (-14) won on the road 24-6 & it was QB Cantwell?s 1st road start and he hit 18-26 for 173 with UL having a 401-247 yd edge. UL has just 9 starters back and while KSt has just 12 they also have a large JUCO infusion like the days of old. The Cards were 16-2 ATS at home prior to Kragthorpe but just 1-5 under him. KSt, however, has gone 1-6 ATS vs non-conf BCS tms away from Manhattan.

Thursday, September 18th - West Virginia at COLORADO - 1st meeting. Colorado does have a large altitude edge as they have been in it for TWO months while WV just came in this week. WV is off a bye (like CU) and is 14-3 SU on the road (11-5-1 ATS). Colorado did upset #3 Oklahoma at home LY, has 14 returning starters and is in year 3 under Hawkins (traditionally the year a new HC does best). LY they only lost to Kansas (finished 12-1, #7) by 5 but are just 3-7 as a HD and WV is 9-4-1 as an AF. Two out of WV?s L/3 SU road losses came in a night game.

Friday September 19th - Baylor at CONNECTICUT - 1st meeting. BU is 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road vs BCS non-conf and just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in road openers (avg loss by 28 ppg). BU is 11-2 SU & 9-2 ATS prior to a bye. Conn is 14-7-1 as a HF, riding a 9 gm home win streak, but does have a huge Big East gm on deck vs UL. Both of these teams won 4H LPS for us LW. BU seems to have bought into Brile?s schemes and are led by QB Griffin (school record 217 rush yds LW, 683 yds in 2 starts TY) while Conn RB Brown has topped 200+ the L2W (566 yds, 7.2).

BOSTON COLLEGE 23 Ucf 6 - BC should be focused here as UCF is the defending CUSA Champ, while BC is off a bye and only has a IAA foe on deck. BC is 14-0 SU vs non-conf opp?s. Coach Jag is 3-4 as a HF and 1-1 off a bye. BC does have just 10 returning starters and lost the top QB in the draft. His replacement Chris Crane has hit 30-53 (57%) for 248 yds with a 1-2 ratio. UCF is also off a bye and 2-5 ATS on the road vs BCS conf tms, although they did upset NCSt in ?07. The Knights are 11-20 off a SU loss. They also lost their key player on offense in RB Kevin Smith and their top RB is Ronnie Weaver, who has rushed for just 112 yds (2.8!) in the first 2 games. While BC has been tough against the run traditionally, they are all?g 144 ypg (3.8) TY. BC has a slight off edge (#84-104) and the def edge (#16-38). UCF?s road troubles against BCS tms should continue.

NORTHWESTERN 28 Ohio 20 - Last met in ?05 with NW winning 38-14 (-14?) which was a RARE cover as a HF as they are 3-14 in that role! The Cats have their Big Ten opener on deck and Ohio is on their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. NW is 4-3 as a DD fav incl a 30-10 win (-11?) over Syracuse TY. Ohio is 2-0 ATS as a DD dog TY and led Ohio St into the 4Q two weeks ago. NW won 33-7 over FCS S Ill LW but only had 20-17 FD & 333-262 yd edges. NW QB CJ Bacher is avg 208 ypg (61%) with a 3-1 ratio and RB Tyrell Sutton has 311 yds (5.8). Ohio lost starting QB Theo Scott vs OSU (broken collarbone) and in his 1st start QB Boo Jackson (PS#63JC) became the 1st Bobcat in over 2 years to top 300 yds as he threw for 365 (55%) with a 3-0 ratio and rushed for 48 yds (5.3) vs CM. The Bobcats had a 513-431 yd edge but lost 31-28 as they fumbled away a game winning TD into the CM EZ late 4Q after having a 1st and goal at the CM 8. While the D?s are close (NW #60-63) NW has the off edge (#62-97) but Ohio has played the tougher schedule (#25-95).

CINCINNATI 27 Miami, Oh 17 - MU & UC are colliding for the 113th time in the Battle for the Victory Bell (oldest non-conf rivalry). The RedHawks have lost 3 of 4 by 23 ppg & the visitor is just 1-4 in this rivalry (40 miles apart). LY backup QB Grutza hit 25-35 for 290 in the Bearcats 47-10 road win. In that game Miami lost a ? fmbl on the first play & then lost their top RB?s to inj & it was all downhill. UC will be without Grutza who broke his leg in a 52-26 loss to OK. Jr QB Tony Pike will make his 1st career start. Miami does have 17 starters back (Cincy just 12) but Cincy is off a bye with only Akron on deck. LW Miami scored the final 21 pts (3:45 3Q) for the 38-27 win over IAA Charleston So. Cincy has the off (#57-107) & def (#65-90) edges and take into account that the Cats faced OK. Cincy is 6-3 as a HF and Miami 7-1 as an AD. The favorite has covered the L/3 and they?ve gone OVER 5 out of the L/6.

MISSISSIPPI 31 Vanderbilt 17- Ole Miss underachieved and struggled to learn how to win going 1-6-2 ATS as a fav under Orgeron. Vandy meanwhile has benefitted from tms looking past them and has gone 14-4 ATS as an AD. Ole Miss will not look past this surprising 3-0 Vandy squad and the Rebels? 2-1 start with a 1 pt loss to WF (possible ACC Champ) has also been better than most expected. Vandy is off a win over Rice which was missing 2 of their starting LB?s (#2 & #3 tklrs in ?07). VU QB Nickson has avg just 84 ypg (53%) with a 2-0 ratio but leads the tm in rushing (268, 5.5). RB Hawkins has 242 (4.8). PS#4 QB Snead has grasped UM?s offense (#46) avg 220 ypg (56%) with a 6-3 ratio and true Bolden (161, 6.7) and Eason (118, 118, 3.8) have shared the RB?s carries. UM?s #46 D which ret their 13 top tacklers from LY has all?d only 333 ypg. Vandy?s off (#85) was anemic on the road LY avg?g 254 ypg and while they had 360 yds in the opener at Miami (OH) their OL has 5 new starters and will struggle vs SEC competition. They were outgained 325-225 by SC despite pulling out the win and they have been outgained on the yr by an avg of 357-310 ypg. UM started the year with a depleted DL but DT Jerry and NT Laurent are now back with only DE Hardy still out. The HT is 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS). Though Ole Miss is 0-10 in their SEC openers, the Rebels are 5-2 ATS in their SEC home opener (won L/3 covering by 14 ppg). UM is 6-3 SU in the series but just 1-7-1 ATS. As early as it is in the season, this game may determine which of these teams will make a bowl TY.

GEORGIA TECH 13 Mississippi St 9 - Last met in 1929. GT is 4-11 at home vs BCS non-conf. Both teams were in bowls LY but Miss St won theirs and has 14 starters ret while GT lost theirs and now has 9 ret sts and is the youngest squad in the ACC with w/75 Fr & So, a new HC and new offensive and defensive schemes. Miss St is 8-3-1 ATS on the road (7-2-1 AD) but lost outright at LA Tech (-8). The dog is 12-2-1 in GT gms. HC Johnson is 3-8 ATS as a HF. LW GT had 387 total yds with 278 coming on the ground in the triple option. On the season QB Nesbitt has 261 rush yds (4.8) and RB Dwyer has 248 (6.4). Tech has the offensive edge (#56-115) but Miss St has the defensive edge (#18-40). LW Miss St was held to just 116 ttl yds and 2 pts. QB Carroll has passed for 408 yds (51%) with a 3-4 ratio. Another ACC vs SEC matchup and in those the SEC is 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS TY.

BYU 45 Wyoming 10 - While Glenn is 0-5 SU in road openers WY has covered its L/3, all at tough venues (the Swamp, Boise?s blue turf and cross country at UVA). They are 2-9 as an AD. LY we used BYU -10 as a 4H LPS and they dominated on the road 35-10. WY is just 4-16 SU and 5-15 ATS on the MWC road. They are traveling to face the #14 ranked Cougs which mauled UCLA LW, 59-0. BYU outgained UCLA 521-239 (incl a 184-9 rush edge) as QB Hall tied a BYU rec?d w/7 TD passes (Jim McMahon & Marc Wilson), with 6 coming in the 1H. He is avg 365 ypg (78%) with a 12-2 ratio. His top target, Pitta, is #2 in the nation in rec ypgwith 26 rec (15.7) and 3 TD. Two wks ago, after WY was upended by AF, QB Crum & OC Cole sat down together and decided to simplify the playbook. LW they were lucky to escape with a 16-13 win over IAA N Dakota St. WY nailed a 29 yd FG (set up by an int) with :04 left to come away with the home win, even though they were outgained 313-266. Crum continues to struggle avg 91 ypg (55%) with a 2-3 ratio. RB Moore leads with 297 rush yds (4.9). BYU is 11-5 ATS prior to a bye and under Mendenhall their avg cover is 18.3 ppg vs Wyoming, incl WY?s last trip here which was a 55-7 winner on Thurs night. The Cougs are on a roll and will name the score here.


AUBURN 17 Lsu 13 - This is the battle for supremacy in the SEC West as the winner of this game has won the div 6 of L/8Y. The L/4 gms in this series have been decided by 3 ppg with each tm having the exact same point total 58-58! Auburn has covered 3 straight and the L/2 games in Auburn have TOTALED 29 pts. The HT has won 8 straight going 5-2-1 ATS. While Aub is 11-4 ATS at home vs the SEC they are just 4-4 the L/2Y. LY Aub had a young OL with 3 frosh starters facing a veteran LSU DL and LSU got a 22 yard TD pass with :01 left to pull out a 30-24 win (see PH). LSU did have a 498-296 yd edge at home LY, but that was with a veteran QB. This is the first road game for LSU?s young QB?s Hatch (101 ypg, 55%, 1-1 ratio) and Lee (100 ypg, 57%, 2-1 ratio) and they face by far the toughest D they have seen this year (#7) as Aub held MSU to 116 total yds LW in their 3-2 win. Aub?s new spread off has sputtered and QB Todd has only avg 157 ypg (59%) with a 1-1 ratio. RB Lester (148, 4.2) suffered a neck inj LW (check status), and Tate has 278 (5.8). Aub let us down LW with turnovers (2 fmbls in L/5:00 of gm), penalties and missed FG?s costing us a win for our Sept 5H, but Aub has the big home edge and the schedule edge, having faced more difficult opps.

Alabama 30 ARKANSAS 13 - The HT has won 4 in a row SU in this series but is 5-9 ATS. JPW has had good success vs the Hogs playing well in his first ever road start in ?06 and LY had his 1st career 300 yard effort as Bama led big but let up and needed a comeback to win (see PH). The Hogs are 0-3 ATS as a HD, but Saban is 1-4 as a conf fav. Ark is off an unscheduled bye after LW?s gm at Texas was postponed and they get 3 experienced LB?s back from inj & susp to fill in the depleted unit that used 3 frosh starters in the 1st 2 gms. This is the first true test of Ark?s new off and Bama?s #12 D (Ark #84) should contain Ark QB Dick who has avg 321 ypg (63%) with a 4-1 ratio vs much weaker competition. Bama QB Wilson has avg 156 ypg (63%) with a 4-1 ratio and set UA?s career record for total off LW. RB?s Coffee (242, 6.5) and true Ingram (210, 5.7) lead the tm. The Tide has a huge edge on ST?s (#13 vs #117). Though Bama is just 3-15 as a DD favorite (could apply though covered vs WK LW -28?), Ark realistically could be 0-3 coming into this gm instead of 2-0 and that gives Bama line value.

Houston 40 COLORADO ST 23 - LY Houston overcame a 17-3 HT deficit outscoring CSU 35-10 in the 2H. Both teams have just 12 starters back and new HC?s but UH was an 8-4 team that went to a bowl and CSU was 3-9. LW UH was trying to play thru very unusual circumstances and some obvious distractions. They were down 31-7 mid-3Q vs AF and rallied late but fell 3 pts short. UH had 534-380 & 29-20 FD edges but couldn?t recover the onside K & AF hung on. UH QB Keenum has thrown for 350+ yds in every gm TY (4 consec 300 yd pass gms, 1st here S/?92) His streak of 219 consec passes w/o an int was snapped when CB Wright stepped in front of one at the AF3 (UH down 31-21) late 4Q. Overall, Keenum is #2 in the NCAA avg 380 ypg (63%) with a stellar 13-1 ratio. He has 4 rec?s with DD catches and also leads the team with 148 rush yds (6.7). CSU comes in off a bye. While not ideal, new HC Fairchild said taking a week off this early was fine ?because we get better every time we practice.? Two wks ago, CSU was actually trailing IAA Sac St with 10:00 left in the gm (20-17) but drove 61/16pl for a 36 FG and then tacked on a 20 FG as time expired for Fairchild?s first win as a coll HC. QB Farris is avg 254 ypg (69%) with a 2-3 ratio. His top rec, Greer, has 17 rec (13.1) & RB Johnson has 168 yds (5.3). CSU is just 1-3 as a HD over 7 yrs and their #105 pass eff D (all?g 210 ypg, 64%) will be vulnerable vs Keenum & Co.

Rutgers 34 NAVY 24 - The Knights are 6-1 SU (avg win 16 ppg) vs Navy & in ?06 limited the #1 rushing attack of Navy to 113 yds (2.3) in a 34-0 shutout win here. RU is 12-4-1 ATS vs non-conf on the road. LY RU won 41-24 (-16?) with Navy QB Kaheaku-Enhada throwing 3 int including 2 in the EZ (Navy 289 total yds, 155 below avg). Rutgers is off their worst loss at home since ?02?s 40-0 loss to WV. Despite outgaining NC 383-378, RU could not overcome 3 int by QB Teel (4 overall in NC terr) in the 44-12 loss. They now face a team that has allowed 324 pass ypg. LW QB Kaheaku-Enhada made his 1st start TY (inj?d1st 2), but left (heat exhaust) in 1H of their 41-31 loss to Duke. This is RU?s road opener and they are 2-5 as an AF (5 yr). Navy is 3-7 SU and ATS vs current BE teams and on a 2-7 ATS run at home. The Knights have a huge def edge (#59-111) and HC Schiano knows how to prepare for the Navy option (191 rush ypg L/3). For the Knights this a must win game before entering their conf schedule.

NORTH CAROLINA 24 Virginia Tech 17 - VT has won all 4 meetings in ACC play by an avg of 27-12 but that does not tell the story. The last two years NC has had a combined 34-20 FD edge. LY they went into Blacksburg and only lost 17-10 (+19?). VT is 11-3 as an AF vs FBS opp but NC is 10-4 as a HD. LW the Tar Heels won for the 1st time outside NC S/?02 in their 44-12 rout vs Rutgers which gives them their best start S/?00. WR Brandon Tate leads the NCAA in all-purp yds avg 308 ypg. QB Yates has passed for 442 yds (60%) with a 5-1 ratio. NC has the off edge (#43-86) but VT has a slight def edge (#45-56). After their loss in Wk 1, VT pulled the RS off QB Taylor. He started LW and only threw for 48 yds & ran for 74, and we expect Beamer to go back to the dual QB system. NC is our #2 Most Improved Team which has a legitimate shot at winning the Coastal Div.

PITTSBURGH 20 Iowa 16 - This is Iowa?s road opener and they are 1-3 SU on the road vs non-conf with their avg loss by 27-8. Pitt is 5-1 ATS vs the B10 S/?97 but did lose at home to Mich St 38-22 (-3) in ?06. Pitt is off a bye while Iowa defeated rival ISU despite being outFD?d 18-11 and outgained 325-244 as Brodell?s 4Q 81 yd PR TD put the game away. The Hawks are just 4-11 ATS on the road and have their B10 opener on deck. Hawks? QB Christensen came off the bench in the 2H vs the Cyclones to lead them to the win and may start here over Stanzi. At 235 lbs Iowa?s ?Greene? Monster outweighed the average Cyclone defender by 5 lbs per man and he has 359 yds (6.5) and TW he?s matched against a Panthers D which allows 95 rush ypg (3.2). The Hawks D hasn?t allowed a TD TY and just 89 rush ypg (3.0). Pitt has been forced to go to the air with opp?s D?s keying on McCoy (164, 3.8). QB Stull avg 253 ypg (61%) with a 4-2 ratio and OC Cavanaugh says JC Cross may see time as a change of pace QB.

FLORIDA ST 23 Wake Forest 20 - WF has beaten Fla St in B2B years for the 1st time in school history. In WF?s last visit here (?06), they shutout FSU which was the 1st time at home in Bowden?s 32 yrs as FSU?s HC. This is the 3rd and final game for FSU?s suspensions and this is the first IA foe their short handed squad faces. WF comes in fully loaded off a bye and is fresh and ready and also tested vs a pair on BCS non-conf foes (2-0 SU). Grobe is 17-9-1 as an AD. QB Skinner (ACC Off POW 2X TY) has passed for 487 (75%) with a solid 5-0 ratio. WR Boldin has 18 rec (8.7). The Noles have the edge on both sides of the ball (off #20-54 & def #14-24) even with the sked difference. QB Ponder (PS#22), who beat out Weatherford and Richardson for the starting job in week 1, has 376 pass yds (62%) with a solid 6-0 ratio. Ponder spreads the ball around as Reed has 7 rec (18.4), Carr 6 (19.0) and Surrency 5 (20.2).

OREGON 34 Boise St 13 - 1st meeting. Boise, who is 2-11 SU vs the P10 with both wins coming at home vs Oregon St, put together a strong defensive showing LW vs BG holding the Falcons scoreless for the 1st 3Q?s in their 20-7 win. They now enter Eugene against a Duck team off their inspiring comeback 2OT win vs Purdue. The Ducks did, however, lose QB Roper (4-0 as a starter) for up to a month with a knee injury and will now turn to the combo of JC trans Masoli & true frosh Harper to take control of our #9 off. UO has gone 14-3 ATS as a HF and 13-5 ATS against non-conf opponents all?g just 274 ypg at home. LY we used a 4H LPS on Wash (+3) over Boise and they dominated 24-10 ending the Broncos 14 game win streak. This is Boise?s road opener (lost SIX straight ATS!) and while they have gone 3-0-1 ATS as a DD dog S/?00, they are just 7-13-1 ATS off the blue turf and now have a VHT rFr QB making his 1st career road start which may not bode well in noisy Autzen Stadium.

TULSA 35 New Mexico 28 - Last met in ?97. NMex is 3-1 ATS in the series. NM is 4-13 SU in road openers but did upset Missouri in 2005 as a DD dog. NM is 14-7 as an AD and is coming off a Big Dog POW outright upset win over Arizona, holding the Wildcats? spread off to 388 yds and forcing 5 TO?s. The Lobos travel to in-state rival NMSt next and are 6-2-1 in the 1st of B2B AG?s. This is Tulsa? s home opener and they are off a bye with only a IAA foe on deck, but Graham is just 1-3 as HF. NM has a large defensive edge (#41-107) and a huge sched edge (2 BCS opp), but Tulsa has a huge edge on offense (#7-99) and a large ST edge (#50-97). NM?s D all?d just 20 ppg on the road and has the adv of having faced a pair of pass happy attacks in TCU and Arizona. The Lobos will come to play even with ?The Battle of I-25? on deck.

INDIANA 35 Ball St 27 - Both schools have been moving up and each made a bowl in ?07. Indy has won 4 in a row SU in the series incl the L2Y. LY Indy led 24-10 at half with a 267-185 yd edge and won 38-20 so ignore the fact that they were outFD?d 22-19. LY Indy QB Lewis threw for a career high 354 yds. Indy has just 13 ret sts and Ball St has 18. Indy is off a bye and has their conf opener on deck and Ball is in a MAC sandwich but the Cardinals are 10-3 as an AD. While Indiana has the D edge (#58-86), Ball St has the off edge (#30-69) and a big ST?s edge (#9-63). Indiana QB Kellen Lewis is avg 157 ypg (67%) with a 2-1 ratio and is the Hoosier?s top rusher with 183 (18.3). Ball St QB Nate Davis is avg 305 ypg (75%) with a 9-3 ratio. RB MiQuale Lewis has continued where he left off LY before being lost for the year in gm 4 rushing for 363 (6.1) TY. Ball St is off a 41-24 (-7) win over Akron but only outgained the Zips 491-418 as they benefitted from being +3 TO including a 33 yd fumble ret for a TD.

Akron 24 ARMY 17 - Akron is playing their 3rd road gm in 4 wks and is off a conf game while Army is fresh off a bye. Army is just 13-25-1 ATS at home and does have just 8 ret starters. LY they met in the inaugural Patriot Bowl in Cleveland Browns Stadium and Akron won 22-14 (-6). While the D?s are almost identical (#108-109), the Zips have big off (#74-120) and ST?s edges (#49-113) despite playing a tougher schedule (#34-103). Army switched to an option offense which HC Brock said they will live and die with it and Akr is all?g 271.0 ypg rushing (5.4). Army has only been outgained by 8 ypg but they have been outscored by 23 ppg as they have scored just 17 pts in 2 gms incl 10 vs IAA New Hamp. The Knight ST?s are giving up a horrendous 20 ypr on punts and 53.2 ypr on KR as they have given up 2 KR TD on just 4 KO?s. That is good news for Akron KR Bryan Williams who led the MAC LY in KR avg (#2 NCAA) and is avg 32.6 ypr TY. The Zips are off a 41-24 loss to Ball St but were only outgained 491-418 but were -3 TO.

MARYLAND 38 E Michigan 10 - The Terps are just 2-11 as a HF and in a huge sandwich after playing Cal with their ACC opener vs Clemson on deck. They last met in ?03 with MD winning 37-13 (-34). EM is in a MAC sandwich and Genyk is 13-11 as an AD. The Terps have a history of starting off slowly under the Fridge, and after two poor games to start the year they upset #23 Cal 35-27 as a 14 pt HD. The Terps were outgained 461-297 but led 28-6 after 3Q and much of Cal?s off came in the 4Q as they scored 3 TD?s in 7:00. EM after playing well early vs Mich St the prior week, was a 2? pt HF vs Toledo. In a steady downpour they trailed just 14-7 at the half but all?d 27 unanswered 3Q points and were outgained 347-263. MD has the off (#63-111) and the def edge (#51-95) despite playing a much tougher schedule (#44-112). In his 2nd start MD QB Chris Turner had 156 yds (78.9%) with a 2-0 ratio against Cal. The Terps RB Da?Rel Scott has 407 yds (7.3) which is bad news for an EM D that is all?g 4.6 ypc. EM QB Kyle McMahon relieved starting QB Andy Schmitt, and threw for 128 (61%) with an 0-1 ratio but added 59 yds (4.2) rushing. The Eagles top RB Terrence Blevins has 251 yds (5.6) but will be facing a MD D all?g 2.8 ypc who held Cal?s RB Jahvid Best (who was avg 156 ypg) to just 25 yds (2.5).

Miami, Fl 20 TEXAS A&M 13 - Last year UM defeated A&M holding them to 38 total yds with a 24-0 halftime lead delivering us a Thurs Nt ESPN Winner. Miami is 5-0 SU and ATS vs the Big 12. A&M does have just 10 ret starters and a new HC while Miami has 11 returning and are in the 2nd year under Shannon. Both teams are off a bye and UM?s young QB?s Marve & Harris (combined 28-48, 269 yds & have yet to toss an int) have a game at the ?Swamp? under their belts. A&M is 23-11 SU at home, but was upset by Ark St 3 wks ago while Miami is just 2-9 SU on the road. Miami was very impressive vs Fla 2W ago as they held the Gators to 9 pts & 230 yds the 1st 3Q and on the ssn are all?g just 236 ypg. A&M has played very poor LY in its 1st 2 gms and the players are struggling with Sherman?s schemes as the Aggies have been outgained by 123 ypg. UM RB Jarvis was inj?d vs Fla & won?t play, but the duo of Cooper/Thomas (110 yds, 3.2) are capable bkups while the status of A&M?s QB McGee (95 ypg, 69%, 0-2) & RB Goodson (133 yds, 4.4) for this gm is in question. It could be a long year in College Station as the A&M faithful have seen this story before and now run into a Hurricane tm that played a Fla tm a lot closer than the final score (Tebow held to just 61 yds in 1H).

East Carolina 27 NC STATE 13 - ECar always gets up for its ACC in-state rivals and these two are only 93 miles apart. EC is 3-3 SU and 8-5 ATS vs NCSt and won their last trip here in ?06 21-16 as a 3 pt dog. LY NCSt pulled the road upset 34-20 jumping out to a 21-0 lead in a game closer than the final (see PH). NCSt has just 10 returning starters from a 5-7 squad while EC has 16 ret starters from a bowl winner. QB Pinkey has thrown for 707 yds (76%) with a 4-1 ratio. EC has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #65-93 & def #33-73). NCSt hasn?t scored a TD on offense vs a BCS team in 13 straight quarters. Despite throwing for 246 yds vs W&M, QB Beck was replaced by Wilson (concussion 1st gm) and Wilson only had 92 yds vs Clemson LW. EC is in a CUSA sandwich and playing their 3rd game away from home in 4 weeks but are 3-0 for the first time S/?99 including wins over ACC?s VT and BE?s WVirg and have moved into the Top 25 and the national spotlight.

MISSOURI 59 Buffalo 17 - 1st meeting. Pinkel is a MAC grad, got his coaching start in Toledo and lost a pair of games to MAC tms in his first 2Y. Since then he is 4-0 ATS vs the MAC with an avg win by 41-9 and 8-3-1 as a 20+ fav. LW MO scored 69 pts (tied a tm record set in 1969 and put up 651 yds scoring on 1st 10 possessions). Mizzou has scored 30+ (50+ all 3 gms TY) in 18 of 19 gms. QB Daniel is avg 324 ypg (72%) with a 10-1 ratio. Buff is 3-2 ATS vs ranked foes (avg loss by 32 ppg). Buff HC Gill was a QB and asst cch for Nebraska and Buff is 8-4 as a 20+ dog. LW Buff beat Temple on a final play Hail Mary and for the ssn are outgaining foes by 91 ypg led by QB Willy who is avg 264 ypg (65%) with an 8-2 ratio. Buffalo has played well this ssn but is in a MAC sandwich and may use this as a mail in game. Mizzou will be by far the best team Buff will face TY. The Tigers have a bye on deck, are outgaining foes by 188 ypg (avg 597 ypg) and will roll once again to start 4-0 for the 3rd straight year.

TEXAS 52 Rice 17 - LY then-#7 Texas outgained Rice 560-268 in a 58-14 win as they led 41-0 in the 2Q. Rice is 7-15 ATS vs BCS schools and 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS vs Texas with their avg loss by 30 ppg. Rice dropped its first gm of the season last week, but did outgain Vandy 407-344 & was tied 21-21 at HT. QB Clement is avg 356 ypg. The HT (schools 160 miles apart) is 9-3 ATS and Rice is on their 3rd straight road game while Texas (due to Hurricane Ike) hasn?t played in 14 days. Texas is 18-9 as a 20+ fav (2-0 TY). Horns QB McCoy is avg 252 ypg (76%) with a 7-1 ratio (#1 rusher with 111 yds, 6.5). Texas has been very impressive this season (2-0 SU & ATS) winning by 36 ppg, outgaining foes by 102 ypg and should continue its dominance over a Rice tm that hasn?t beaten them in Austin since 1965.

 

[the duke]

Power Sweep

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

In their only prior gm (?05), Toledo had 20-13 FD & 304-248 yd edges but lost by 30 (44-14, +14) due to TO?s & poor ST play. UT is coming off B2B losing seasons for the first time since ?77-?78. The Rockets are 5-8 ATS but are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in their L/4 HG?s. UT is 7-1 SU & ATS in its first lined HG. This is UT?s home opener & the Rockets are 41-6 SU in the Glass Bowl this decade incl 6-1 as a HD with wins over Iowa St, Kan & a talented #9-ranked Pitt team in the L/5 yrs. FSU has the edge on off (#41-68), def (#36-85) & ST ?s (#20-100). The big question here is, how will the Bulldogs respond after losing the biggest game in school history? In a somewhat similar situation back in ?05 when FSU lost to #1 USC (50-42), Fresno suffered a major hangover going on to lose 10 of their next 11 gms (1-10 SU & ATS). FSU is on a 7-4 ATS run but is only 1-5 ATS as an AF with 3 outright upsets. This could be a sticky situation for the Bulldogs as this contest lands smack in the middle of a pair of BCS gms (Wisky LW, at UCLA on deck) and it could be difficult for FSU to rise up again & bring its ?A? game. FORECAST: TOLEDO 27 Fresno St 23

OTHER COLLEGE GAMES

UTAH ST 27 Idaho 24 - The series is deadlocked at 16-16-2. Idaho is 3-7 SU since ?59 in Logan but won its last trip here 41-21 (-3). LY the Vandals outgained the Aggies 428-272 but were -4 in TO?s which cost them the win. UI is 10-17-1 as an AD & USU could find itself in somewhat uncharted waters as a HF where it?s just 1-1 in the L/3 yrs. UI snapped an 11 gm losing streak two wks ago & the victory marked just the 2nd win for the Vandals since mid-?06 but both wins were vs IAA tms. Since UI?s last win over an FBS tm (LT in ?06), the Vandals are just 2-18 SU & 4-14 ATS. The tms are pretty even on off (UI #114-118) & def (USU #110-119) but the Aggies have the edge on ST (#77-103). USU is 3-5 SU in the L/8 vs UI but is 14-7 SU over the L/21 meetings. USU is on an 8-6 ATS stretch but the Aggies are 1-13 SU & 4-10 ATS in HG?s. USU is being outgained by 258-75 ypg on the ground TY. USU QB Setzer has gotten the start in the first 3 gms TY but it?s been Borel who has been more effective with both his arm & legs as Borel?s numbers (100 ypg, 3-1 ratio, 41 ypg rush) are superior to Setzer?s (70 ypg, 1-1 ratio, -4 ypg rush).

Tcu 41 SMU 17 - TCU has outscored SMU 233-64 (avg 29-8) since 1999. SMU?s only win in that span was in the Frogs last visit to Dallas in ?05 when they won (+14?) the ?Iron Skillet? after a 6 yr drought. That turned out to be TCU?s only loss of the yr and was also a Big Dog POW. The HT is 7-4 ATS and SMU has covered the L/2. LY in Ft Worth, SMU had a 23-13 FD edge but TCU used a blk?d punt and IR for TD?s and won 21-7 (-23?). Patterson?s def (he was DC) held Jones? offense to 14 pts in ?99 and 21 in ?00 but UH did avg ?just? 28.5 and 24.5 those 2 years. Jones said his offense would hit its stride in week 4, but seemed to take a step back LW as the Mustangs threw 5 int in a 43-7 loss at TT. TCU was a 4H LPS winner (-14) over Stanford and brings in our #23 pass def, but the Horned Frogs are just 7-13-2 as an AF and 13-19-1 as a DD fav under Patterson. TCU has Oklahoma on deck and must avoid looking ahead to their showdown with the Sooners.

Georgia 24 ARIZONA ST 21 - Tough spot here for the Bulldogs. UGA is off a narrow SEC road win and now makes their longest reg ssn road trip S/?65 with Bama on deck seeking revenge for an OT loss LY. ASU, meanwhile, dropped a shocker LW in Tempe to UNLV in OT as they were likely looking ahead to this matchup. While the gm has lost some of the luster, ASU is playing their 4th consec HG to start ?08, has a bye on deck, and has an experienced QB in Carpenter who has had a solid Sept hitting 71% of his passes with 325 ypg and a 6-2 ratio. RB Herring has battled inj this ssn and remains a ? as of this writing (check status). ASU was behind in 6 gms LY but will need to jump on UGA early because if they fall behind, the Bulldog defense will keep them down (289 yds allowed at SC LW). Georgia?s Richt knows how to win on the road where he is 16-3 SU away and is also 6-2-1 ATS vs non-conf giving the Bulldogs a good chance to steal one away this week in the desert.

UNLV 27 Iowa St 20 - ?I really don?t believe we lost,? said UNLV HC Sanford after what was ruled a inc pass on the final play in their last meeting in ?06. The Cyclones are 1-4 SU after playing rival Iowa incl two losses to non-BCS schools. UNLV is off one of the biggest wins in school history, upsetting #15 Ariz St in OT. True frosh Payne had a one-handed TD catch with :18 left to force OT. After hitting a 20 yd FG, UNLV took a page from BYU?s book, and Taumua broke thru the line to blk a 35 yd FG and seal the 16-13 win. RB Summers had his best gm TY (103 yds) and now leads with 277 rush yds (4.7). QB Clayton is only avg 181 ypg (61%) but has an outstanding 6-0 ratio. Wolfe is the #1 rec with 24 (10.1). Iowa St is 6-24-1 ATS on art turf and this is their first time on it TY. They are off a 17-5 loss to in-state rival Iowa. ISU had 325-244 yd & 18-11 FD edges but could not overcome scoring only 3 pts in their 6 trips inside the Iowa 30. QB Arnaud had his best showing of the year (224 yds) but only avg 163 ypg (63%) with a 2-2 ratio. Bates leads with 140 rush yds (7.0) and Sumrall has 11 rec (16.8). Iowa St is 8-1 ATS vs non-BCS tms. This is only the 2nd BCS school (besides Wisky) to visit UNLV in the L/6Y and LY UNLV outplayed #5 Wisky here. Both tms are improved over ?07 and the Rebels are 9-4 as a HD but 2-12 as a HF. Sanford will use LW?s upset as a springboard for the rest of the season and the ISU run D (4.6 ypc) is facing Frank ?The Tank? Summers.

STANFORD 20 San Jose St 17 - After a competitive road loss the week prior to Neb, the Spartans won at home for the 14th time in 16 gms as QB Reed (Cal transfer) continued his hot start with his new team rushing for 3 TD?s in their 25 pt win vs SDSt. SJSt bills this as class warfare and are usually up for their more high rent district rival but surprisingly have dropped 5 out of the L/6 ATS by a 44-10 avg margin (all as big dogs) including LY?s 37-0 blanking (1st Stanford shutout S/?96) in which the Cardinal finished with a 506-163 yd edge. After a solid performance vs OSU in their home opener, Stanford has been put down the L/2W including LW?s loss at TCU (3H LPS winner!!) as they were held to just 193 ttl yds. RB Gerhart has rushed for 259 yds (5.2) so far TY and in LY?s game (his only gm played all ssn), Gerhart took off against the Spartans rushing for 140 yds on just 12 carries (11.7). SJSt did pull out 3 straight upsets (15?, 19, 17? dogs) from ?98-?00 and could surprise the Cardinal some here making this closer than Stanford fans would like.

UTEP 37 New Mexico St 33 - The ?Battle of I-10.? NMSt trails the series 34-49-2 but snapped a 3 gm losing streak LY winning 29-25 (-5?) with a 557-345 yd edge. The HT in this series is 8-1 SU & 5-4 ATS but is 3-1 SU & only 1-3 ATS in L/4 gms. These two have avg a comb 63 ppg in the L/8. The Aggies are 3-7 SU in this series S/?96 but are 10-6 ATS S/?90. NMSt is 0-17 SU & 4-13 as an AD. The Aggies? last SU win as an AD was on Nov. 13, 2004 vs FAU (35-7, +7). NMSt is playing its 2nd straight AG. UTEP has a slight edge on off (#76-81) & def (#104-112) and has a large edge on ST?s (#45-116). UTEP is 1-7 ATS as a HF and the Miners are in the midst of an 8 gm losing streak (2nd longest in NCAA) going 2-6 ATS during the slump. UTEP switched to a 3-3-5 blitzing D but has been ?blitzed? by its first two opp being outscored 84-30 (42-15 avg). The Miners are 25-25 SU & 23-24 ATS under HC Price but after B2B 8-4 finishes capped by bowl appearances in ?04 & ?05, UTEP is 9-17 SU (12-13 ATS) since. UTEP is off a bye with its CUSA opener vs UCF on deck while NMSt hosts rival New Mexico next week.

UCLA 30 Arizona 27 - Home teams have dominated this series of late winning the L/5 ATS by a 15.4 ppg avg cover. The Wildcats make their 2nd consec road trip after dropping a heartbreaker to NM for the 2nd yr in a row as they were SOD on their final drive vs the Lobos. LY UCLA started their 3rd string QB (outgained 344-104 at the half) and was forced to go with former WR Rashaan at QB in the 2H (see PH). The Bruins were destroyed at the hands of BYU LW in Provo as they were dealt their worst loss S/?29, 1st shutout loss S/?01 (USC) and their 2nd thrashing in 2 yrs in trips to Utah as the Utes destroyed them 44-6 LY. The young Bruin secondary was torched for 7 TD passes against the Cougs which may not bode well against a pass-happy AZ offense led by QB Tuitama who is avg 264 ypg (66%) with a 8-2 ratio. Arizona however is just 1-6 SU in the Rose Bowl and lost their only two recent trips by a 32-12 avg (?04 & ?06) while the Bruins have gone 8-3 ATS as a conf HF and 15-3 ATS off a loss. The Bruins continue their Jekyll and Hyde play.

OHIO ST 34 Troy 13 - Huge sandwich game for OSU who is off their beatdown to USC and has their B10 opener on deck. The Bucks are 26-15 ATS as a HF. Troy is 5-2 ATS vs ranked teams and only lost to Georgia by 10 LY. The Trojans D induced OSU?s offense into a 2H coma as they had just 25 total yds. QB Boeckman was sk?d 5 times and threw a costly pick six that effectively ended the game late 1H so the fans may be chanting for Pryor. RB Beanie Wells may not return until the B10 schedule. Troy is off a 65-0 whipping of Alcorn St in which they set a school record for offense while outgaining the Braves 736-120. QB Hampton avg 230 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. OSU has all of the edges but motivation might be a factor although Tressel is 9-4 ATS off a SU loss.

ARKANSAS ST 27 Middle Tennessee 20 - The Blue Raiders are 8-1 vs ASU outscoring them 176-55 in the L/5 wins. LY MT recorded a school record 9 sks, forced 4 TO?s & held ASU to ssn low 138 yds. Ark St has won 9 of their L/11 HC gms SU and is off a 27-24 loss to S Miss but looked impressive their first 2 gms as the outplayed Texas A&M and routed their IAA opponent. ASU QB Leonard is avg 215 ypg (60%) with a 7-1 ratio and RB Arnold has 352 yds (8.0). WR McLennan has 8 rec (19.4). MT almost upset their 2nd BCS tm in as many weeks but fell 1 yd short on a Hail Mary pass on the last play of gm to lose 20-14 to Kentucky which did give us a 3H Winner on the Under. MT QB Craddock is avg 269 ypg (63%) with a 5-2 ratio and WR Beyah has 11 rec (23.2). While MT has played the tougher schedule (#36-115) ASU has the clear offensive edge (#52-101).

TULANE 23 ULM 20 - ULM was drilled 52-9 in their last & only game vs Tulane in ?02. ULM is 13-6 as an AD but this is their 3rd road game in 4 weeks (first non-SEC road gm).Tulane is 21-4 SU vs current SBC schools and 16-5 SU at home vs non-conf. They are in a CUSA sandwich while ULM is off a 37-15 win over a IAA foe with a bye on deck. Even though this is their 3rd road gm, they are 7-1 ATS off a SU win and 4-0 ATS as an AF. ULM QB Lancaster is avg 201 ypg (56%) with a 5-0 ratio. We won our Underdog POW with ULM vs Arkansas and in that one ULM was up 24-6 in the 4Q. ULM is off a 37-15 win over IAA Alabama A&M holding them to 71 yds in 2H with QB Lancaster accounting for 279 of their 455 yds. Tulane has been impressive for a 0-2 team as they outgained Alabama 318-172 and then fell short to #14 E Carolina 28-24. QB Moore is avg 231 ypg (57%) with a 1-2 ratio.

MINNESOTA 42 Florida Atlantic 38 - LY we thought that FAU (5-7 in ?06) was a bowl-caliber team and that Minny was in a rebuilding year. We were very pleased to get the Owls +7 at home in the Florida heat and used them as a 5H. It was a great game as the ?underdog? Owls led 42-24 mid 4Q before allowing a couple of garbage TD?s late. QB Rusty Smith threw for a school record 463 yards. Minny is one of our Most Improved Teams with 15 starters back and is at home in the dome and off a 35-23 win over IAA Montana St LW. They lost TB Bennett for the year (ACL) and started 3 frosh and 2 soph?s on the OL. HC Brewster is 0-4 as a fav and LY came in off two OT gms. FAU is on their 3rd road game in 4 wks and played two very physical tms in Texas and Mich St. QB Smith is off one of his worst performances as he went 8-34 for 143 yds and struggled in the heavy rain. He is avg 240 ypg (44%) with a 4-1 ratio and WR Gent has 11 rec (18.6).

Usf 34 FLORIDA INT?L 10 - This is the 2nd meeting (273 miles apart), their 1st was in ?06, a USF 21-20 (-20?) win. That may have them put a little more prep into this than you would think as they are off their big game victory vs #13 Kansas and have a road trip to the ACC on deck. The Bulls dodged a bullet on the leg of a 1st time frosh kicker Bonani on the last play for a 37-34 win over KU. FIU returns to its new on-campus stadium after playing HG?s at the Orange Bowl LY and they have 18 starters back in Cristobal?s 2nd season. TY FIU has been dominated by Kan 40-10 & Iowa 42-0. USF did only beat FAU by 12 in ?07 on the road (-17?). The Bulls have huge edges on offense (#13-119) and D (#31-103). FIU has only been a dog of 20+ at home once and covered vs Maryland LY 10-26 (+24). USF has a tendency to play up/down to the level of competition and may be looking ahead to NCSt the same team they lost to in their 1st bowl in ?05.

Kent St 30 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 23 - ULL is 0-5 SU in home openers vs FBS opp but this is their first game on their new art turf after 37 yrs on grass. KS HC Martin is 8-10 as an AD and they do have their MAC opener on deck while this is ULL?s best shot at a win this month. Martin called their loss to Iowa St ?frustrating? after they had dominated them. KS QB Edelman is avg 136 ypg (54%) with a 3-4 ratio. RB Jarvis has 207 yds (5.2) and WR has Bayes 9 rec (17.1). ULL is off a 20-17 loss to Illinois (2 scores set up by turnovers in 1H) with Fenroy gaining 20 to make him the school?s career rushing leader. QB Desormeaux is avg 149 ypg (62%) with a 1-2 ratio and is also the leading rusher with 188 yds (6.3). ULL has the offensive edge but Kent has the edges on D and ST?s. ULL has played the tougher schedule, has the home edge and the humidity of the south but Jarvis will feast against a DL all?g 311 ypg rushing (5.9 ypc).






Power Sweep

NFL

4H SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit - Mike Martz takes on the team that fired him after 2 seasons as OC. DET is 4-13 ATS on the road but SF is 3-7-1 ATS at home. Despite the Lions trying to become a run oriented defensive team they have been lit up in the 1H of both games being outscored 42-17 and outrushed 212 (7.6)-54 (3.2). LW they rallied from a 24-3 deficit to take a 1 pt lead halfway thru the 4Q but the defense allowed 10 pts by GB & Kitna was int?d twice in the final 5:17. SF played a good game vs SEA LW & beat them in OT 33-30 as a 6.5 AD despite being sacked 8 times O?Sullivan tallied 321 yds (63%) with a 1-0 ratio & 10.0 ypa. Bruce expands the field & knows the Martz system inside & out (4 rec 38.3 LW) so look for Gore to improve on his running numbers of 61 yds (3.2) from LW. On paper SF?s defense faces a challenge with DET?s WR tandem but the DET coaching staff refuses to play to its strengths. SF has the better overall offense & an under the radar defense headed up by LB Willis & gets their 2nd win here. FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 31 Detroit 20

3H ATLANTA over Kansas City - This game features 2 teams projected to have a top 5 DC in 2009. This could be the only time ATL is a favorite in 2008 & they are 1-4 ATS a HF. KC is 3-10-1 ATS as single digit AD. Even though the Chiefs are playing for 2009 HC Edwards made a very questionable decision LW pulling QB Huard despite only being down 6-0. He inserted 2007 7th RD DC Tyler Thigpen from Coastal Carolina who OC Gailey feels is a better fit athletically for the offense. Thigpen passed for 151 yds (42%) with a 1-1 ratio but KC was shutout for the 1st 56 min of the game. KC was outgained 355-190 & allowed 300 yds rushing (6.4). RB Johnson only had 22 yds rushing (1.8) vs an OAK team that was shredded for 142 yds (4.8) by DEN. KC only had 2 drives cross into OAK territory during the entire game with one 80 yd drive. ATL played TB straight up in the 1st 3Q (190-149 yd edge) but settled for 3 FG?s on 3 drives inside the TB 14. Ryan did look awful going 3 for 18 with 36 yds & 2 ints for the 1st 37:30 of the game but that was on the road vs LY?s #2 defense & now he takes on LY?s #13 defense in a rebuilding mode. Look for ATL to reemphasize the ground game & for Ryan to be more comfortable here & ATL gets an impressive win. FORECAST: ATLANTA 30 Kansas City 10

OTHER SELECTIONS

2H Miami (+) over NEW ENGLAND - The ripple effect of the Farve trade continues as NE takes on a MIA team with Pennington instead of an inexperienced QB. NE is 2-5 ATS hosting a Div foe but MIA is 4-13-1 ATS away in Div play. While both teams have a bye on deck MIA is on the road for the 2nd straight week & the inexperience of the OL & the WR?s was on display LW. ARZ jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the 1Q which forced MIA to abandon the run game that HC Sparano wants to lean on. Pennington only had 45 yds (50%) at the half with 5.6 ypa & was under constant pressure. MIA has only rushed for 121 total yds (3.0) in the 1st 2 wks as they haven?t been able to play with a lead. MIA?s WR?s only have 16 rec?s (11.5) in the 1st 2 games. NE is off a close game vs NYJ in which Cassel had to just manage the game & not make any mistakes. He finished with 165 yds (70%) with a 0-0 ratio & the play calling was fairly balanced (33 run 23 pass). RB Maroney injured his shoulder LW & his status is unknown. We leaned with NE LW as players tend to rally after a key injury but then the team relaxes after a win. We?ll side with a more desperate MIA team getting generous points & not overreact to LW?s win over the Jets & the Dolphins are the Ugly Dog Play (17-9 65%). FORECAST: Miami 13 (+) NEW ENGLAND 20

2H Cleveland over BALTIMORE - CLE is off LW?s SNF game & are 5-1 ATS after facing PIT. BAL is off an unexpected bye week & is 7-3 ATS if they won before it. The extra rest could be just what the team needs for TE Heap & RB McGahee who were ? vs HOU. CLE is a very beat up team & could be without WR Stallworth, OLB Wimbley & both starting Safeties here. BAL?s biggest claim to fame so far is their 17-10 win vs a CIN team that is very soft. Flacco needs the gametime experience & the interruption in their schedule breaks up the momentum BAL had after Wk 1. He only passed for 129 yds (52%) with a 4.4 ypa & his 37 yd TD was when CIN defenders clearly quit on the play. Anderson has faced 2 quality defenses to start they year & now gets a step down in class. This will be an ugly game to watch but we side with the road team here. FORECAST: Cleveland 14 BALTIMORE 10

OTHER GAMES

BUFFALO 23 Oakland 13 - The Bills are 12-5 ATS at home under HC Jauron & in their 9 wins they have avg?d a 26-14 score. BUF is in another solid situation as they catch OAK on its 2nd straight road game after B2B division games with a QB in his 4th career start. Also compounding things for OAK is the public dispute between Lane Kiffin & Al Davis & the team could very well have a new HC here despite shutting out KC for the first 56:00 of the game. OAK took the game out of QB Russell?s hands LW (55 yds 35%) & into RB McFadden?s who rushed for 164 yds (7.8). BUF comes in with 2 quality wins vs 2007 playoff teams beating SEA in all 3 phases in Wk 1 & standing up to JAX on the road in 95˚+ heat. QB Edwards had a great day passing for 239 yds (80%) with a 1-0 ratio but the most impressive stat is his 9.6 ypa. BUF held QB Garrard who passed for 209 ypg (64%) with a 18-3 ratio LY to just 165 yds (61%) with an 0-1 ratio. OAK isn?t as good as it showed LW vs the youngest team in the NFL in KC & BUF is the play after beating 2 quality foes to start the season.

TENNESSEE 23 Houston 13 - The Texans are off an unscheduled bye & it?s unknown where they will practice this week after Hurricane Ike. HOU is 1-5 ATS as a division AD. TEN is 4-0 SU, ATS & O/U vs HOU. QB Collins started the 1st meeting LY which was a 38-36 win as a AE & TEN had a 32-7 lead entering the 4Q with a 20-5 FD & 311-96 yd edges. QB Schaub was KO?d of the game & Rosenfels led HOU with 309 yds & 29 pts in the 4Q as TEN won with its 8th FG. DT Haynesworth returned from a 3 game absence for the 2nd game & TEN KO?d Schaub again. HOU muffed a punt & TEN took over at HOU 29 for the game clinching TD & held off a Rosenfels rally with 2:09 left. TEN rallied around QB Collins & while he only passed for 128 yds (67%) with a 1-0 ratio the game was played in tough weather conditions (25+ mph gusts). TEN outrushed CIN 177 (4.3) to 88 (3.1) & the defense was brutal with lots of pressure & held Palmer to 134 yds (59%) & 2 ints. TEN is a veteran team that knows how to win & Collins experience is a boost to the passing game. HOU will have a lot of off field distractions here & look for TEN to be the much more focused & get the win in a lower scoring game.

NY GIANTS 30 Cincinnati 13 - For the 3rd week in a row the Bengals will play a power oriented physical defense & have an added challenge of facing a balanced offense. CIN is 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road & in those 7 SU losses they have been outrushed 159 (4.5) to 75 (3.4) losing by an avg score of 28-20. The poor play of the OL is neutralizing one of the best QB?s in the NFL with Palmer as they simply can?t hold up at the POA. LW in weather conditions that should have shown off the OL?s run blocking abilities they were held to 88 yds (3.1) rushing. The Giants take on a bad OL for the 3rd week in a row & in the 1st 2 games they have allowed 76 yds rushing (3.8), six FD?s on 26 3rd Dns (23%) with 7 sacks earned. Non-conf HT?s before a bye & off a 17 pt SU win are 12-5 ATS vs a foe off a SU loss. Manning looked comfortable vs a bad defense in STL LW & inc playoffs he is avg 226 ypg (62%) with an 13-3 ratio (7-0 SU & ATS). The Giants are just 4-9 ATS as a fav of 7.5 or more & only beat 1 team at home LY by over 13 pts but CIN has been gutless so far & the Giants enter their bye 3-0 SU & ATS.

WASHINGTON 24 Arizona 23 - ARZ beat WAS 21-19 but failed to cover as 8 pt AF?s. QB Warner was playing with a huge brace on his left elbow & ARZ found itself down 14-0 due to 2 int?s. ARZ controlled the game statistically with a 19-10 FD & 364-160 yd edge. They had a chance to win late after recovering
an onside kick but missed a 55 yd FG with :07 left. Unlike the other NFC West teams ARZ travels fairly well & are 8-4 ATS on the road. The Redskins were in a good situation LW with extra rest vs a dome team playing in a heat index of 98˚+. WAS finished with a 25-16 FD & 455-250 yd edge & took of NO?s lack of balance by outrushing them 149 (4.8) to 55 (2.9) with a +8:28 TOP. After a tough WK 1, Campbell passed for 321 yds (67%) with a 1-0 ratio but it was vs a defense without 3 starters. DE Taylor reinjured his knee LW & his status is unknown. ARZ dominated a young MIA team in a long road trip LW in the 1H with a 284-92 yd edge as Warner passed for 247 yds (85%) with a 2-0 ratio. ARZ is a heavy blitz, scheme oriented defense with a QB that fits the system throwing to WR?s that can make big plays at any point in a higher scoring game.

CHICAGO 23 Tampa Bay 13 - The Bears are the only team to open the season with 2 road games & get a TB team that is 3-12 ATS away vs a non-div foe. After stumbling thru 2007 with injuries & bad QB play the Bears have returned to what they do best with a stout defense, power rushing game & QB play that minimizes mistakes. In the 1st 2 games of the season CHI notched a 351-180 yd edge in the 1H behind a resurgent defense. They limited Manning & Delhomme to 143 yds (48%) with an 0-0 ratio combined in the 1H. CHI?s offense couldn?t close out the game LW vs a good CAR team & gained just 39 yds in the 2H. Despite leading the team to the NFC South title, TB started shopping Garcia around & went with Griese vs ATL. Griese wasn?t very impressive with just 160 yds (58%) with a 1-0 ratio & his 5.2 ypa is something to watch. The defense took advantage of a rookie QB making his 1st NFL road start but was outgained 190-149 after 3Q. While Griese will be helped out by facing his former team here the CHI defense is faster & more aggressive & more reminiscent of the SB defense.

MINNESOTA 21 Carolina 20 - CAR comes in with lots of confidence after 2 late 4Q wins vs a pair of quality foes. MIN was expected to come out & make a strong run for the NFC North title but finds itself 0-2 after blowing a 15-0 lead late in the 3Q with a 263-91 yd edge. From there IND outgained MIN 220-41 & scored 18 unanswered points. No one doubts MIN?s strength vs the run (25 yds 1.3 allowed LW) but they let Manning pass for 311 yds (62%) with a 1-2 ratio. Delhomme is the unquestioned leader of the Panthers & the team rallied around him after the late hit on his slide as they outgained CHI 79-39, forced a trio of 3 & outs with a fumble as the offense scored 14 unanswered points. CAR?s power rushing duo of Stewart & Williams combined for 108 yds rushing (4.3) vs a tough CHI team & WR Muhammad has faced MIN?s DB?s the L3Y. CAR is 19-9-2 ATS as an AD, gets WR Smith back from suspension & we?ll side with the Panthers getting points.

SEATTLE 27 St Louis 23 - SEA swept STL LY including a 33-6 win as an 8.5 pt HF. SEA opened the 2H with a 91 yd KR for a TD & the defense forced 2 TO?s which SEA turned into 10 pts. SEA sacked Bulger 7 times & held STL to 53 yds rushing (3.1). SEA is 7-2 ATS as a div HF. STL is 3-6 ATS on the road. STL?s offense struggled in the 1H once again LW & was lucky to only be down 13-6 at the half. In the 1H of the 1st 2 games STL has been outFD 25-11 & outgained 526-145. Bulger as been limited to 335 yds (59%) with an 1-1 ratio with a poor 5.8 ypa. The defense will be without its best pass rusher in DE Little & it has given up 337 ypg (68%) with a 6-0 ratio (129.2 QBR) with a 9.9 ypa!!! SEA was without its #1 RB, RT, RG & top 3 WR?s LW & found itself in a shootout with SF LW. They lost 2 more WR?s LW (Wallace & Mankins) & its not known if they will return here. Hasselbeck had a tough game (42.5 QBR) due to no healthy WR?s, but the key here is the best def in the division which had 8 sacks vs an avg SF O-line and now take on an STL O-line that is one of the worst in the league and RB Jackson is another week away from being in football shape.

DENVER 37 New Orleans 30 - This is a bit of a flat spot for DEN who is off 2 big division games & have a road game vs KC on deck. DEN is 3-10 ATS as a HF. NO took on WAS without 4 starters (1 off 3 def) & the dome team struggled with a heat index of 100˚. Brees had a rough day passing for 216 yds (67%) with a 1-2 ratio with a 6.5 ypa & he wasn?t helped by a run game that was unable to bring balance (55 yds 2.9). The defense allowed 321 yds passing (67%) with a 1-0 ratio to a QB who only had 133 yds in Wk 1. DEN is off a shootout vs SD after blowing a 31-17 & converting a 2 pt conversion at the end to win. DEN had a 34-19 FD edge & Cutler was impressive with 350 yds (72%) with a 4-1 ratio. The defense/spec teams allowed a 103 yd KR, 48 & 66 yd TD passes but held Tomlinson to 26 yds (2.6) before he left with his injury. DEN needed some breaks to win LW but they catch a depleted NO defense in B2B road games & by going for 2 at the end Shanahan showed how much faith he has in his team which goes a long ways here.

Pittsburgh at PHILADELPHIA - Both teams are off primetime division games & this is the 1st time in 4 years the in-state rivals have faced each other. Each team dominated in week #1 scoring 38 points with PHI outgaining STL by 356 yds & PIT outgaing SEA by 71 yds. There are 3 great matchups in this game. The PHI DL vs the PIT OL, the PIT WR?s vs the PHI secondary & Westbrook vs the PIT LB?s. The advantage goes to all 3 on the offensive side. Another reason to wait and see on this game is that PIT is 7-1 ATS off a SU div loss while PHI is 7-0 off a SU div loss. Without seeing these two playoff caliber teams against a worthy adversary we?ll wait until we get a number & look for a higher scoring game. Our 3H OU?s are a perfect 6-0 100% this year & this game makes that list.

INDIANAPOLIS 20 Jacksonville 13 - It?s a bit surprising to see JAX 0-2 after being expected to mount a serious run at IND for the AFC South title. The Colts narrowly avoided an 0-2 start as Manning rallied
the team to 18 pts & a 220-41 yd edge. Manning is operating behind an OL with 3 new starters & LT Ugoh left LW?s game with an injury. IND is 2-6-1 ATS as a div HF & JAX is 9-3-1 ATS as a div AD. JAX is 8-3-1 ATS in the series. LY at home IND went up 14-0 after officials overturned 2 plays which went against them. JAX cut the lead to 3 late in the 4Q but IND ran out the final 2:47 of the clock. The Jaguars had 27-19 FD & 411-342 yd edges. JAX is off a tough loss to BUF & RB Jones-Drew was KO?d with an ankle injury. JAX has only converted 7 of 25 3rd Dns (28%) in its 1st 2 games & has rushed for 131 yds (3.0) as a team so far. Due to the injury Manning has basically used the 1st 6Q of 2008 as his preseason & DL of the Colts gets a boost with the fast track at Lucas Oil Field. Look for the superiority of IND?s WR?s to be key here & the Colts make up for losing the home opener.

Dallas at GREEN BAY - The Cowboys are off LW?s MNF game vs PHI while GB overcame blowing a 24-3 lead vs DET LW with 2 int returns for TD?s late. DAL got a good look at Rodgers LY when he came in after Favre?s injury & he passed for 201 yds (69%) with a 1-0 ratio. DAL won 37-27 as 7 pt HF?s with a 414-357 yd edge. DAL noted after the game that they hadn?t studied anything at all on Rodgers prior. Both teams are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball & this game could go a long way in the standings later. The situation does favor GB with DAL off a MNF game vs PHI & WAS on deck.

NY Jets at SAN DIEGO - This is the farthest West the Jets have gone in reg season since facing SD in Wk 2 of 2004. Favre faced SD LY & passed for 369 yds (62%) with a 3-0 ratio but needed a 4Q comeback for a 31-24 win as 6 pt HD. Both teams are off losses to division foes with SD having lost on the foes final play for the 2nd straight week. A hungry SD team now faces a Jets squad with Favre becoming more comfortable each week.

 

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THE GOLD SHEET


NFL ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES
HOUSTON by 7 over Tennessee
CAROLINA by 9 over Minnesota

OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jets-San Diego game

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

ATLANTA 23 - Kansas City 16?A smashmouth fest could be in the offing,with Larry Johnson of the Chiefs opposing Michael Turner (220 YR in opener) of the Falcons. However, K.C.?s rebuilding OL could not spring Johnson (12 for 22 rushing) last week nor could its defense stop the Raiders (300 YR!) Chiefs no pushover on the road, covering 7 of last 9 excursions. But is Matt Ryan the best QB in the game, even as a rookie?
(04-KANSAS CITY -3' 56-10...SR: Kansas City 5-1)

BUFFALO 24 - Oakland 10?With reports circulating that he might soon be fired, Lane Kiffin?s Raiders generated 300 YR in their win last week in K.C., and then he denied accusations of dissension on the team. Meanwhile, outspoken former Oakland DT Warren Sapp, never one to sugar-coat criticism, isn?t too high on Oakland?s chances TY, telling watchers of HBO?s Inside the NFL that the Raiders have ?unrealistic ideas about what their people can do.? That comment speaks for itelf. So does the Bills? 11-3 pointspread record their last 14 at home. Buffalo QB Trent Edwards making few mistakes.
(05-OAKLAND -3 38-17...SR: Oakland 19-17)

Houston 20 - TENNESSEE 13?Even without the unexpected ?bye? week and distractions caused by Hurricane Ike, Houston figured to have its hands full with the rock?em, sock?em Tennessee defense that was respectfully referred to as some ?animals? by Jag QB David Garrard. But Titans still seeking to develop consistency under new o.c. Heimerdinger?s play-calling, and Kerry Collins is hampered by Tennessee?s WR limitations. Scouts still believe rookie RB Steve Slaton could be a rainmaker for Texans. And, now, well-rested, wellcoached Houston eager to avoid 0-2 start and stay close in AFC South race.
(07-Tenn. 38-HOU. 36...T.23-18 T.39/155 H.12/39 H.27/44/3/294 T.25/42/0/267 T.2 H.3)
(07-TENN. 28-Hou. 20...T.23-17 T.29/153 H.25/119 T.21/31/1/229 H.20/35/1/196 T.0 H.1)
(07-Tennessee -1 38-36, TENNESSEE -3' 28-20...SR: Tennessee 10-2)

NY GIANTS 30 - Cincinnati 10?The situation has become even more distracting than the controversies at the MSNBC political anchor desk for downtrodden Cincy, which has already let a rookie QB (Ravens? Joe Flacco) and a journeyman (Titans? Kerry Collins) beat it TY. Now, Bengals faced with supremely-confident Super Bowl-winning QB Eli Manning, off near-flawless effort (260 YP & 3 TDP) vs. another troubled foe, St. Louis. Not to mention highly-athletic Giant stop unit that is affording d.c. Spagnuolo all sorts of flexibility in blitz and coverage packages, hardly what the anemic Cincy ?O? (8.5ppg) needs right now. G-Men on 8-0 spread run dating to late LY!
(04-CINCY -6 23-22...SR: Cincinnati 5-2)

Arizona 23 - WASHINGTON 21?Ready to grab the points with Arizona,which appears steady on offense with Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald & Co. and possesses a little more bite on defense in 2008 with the return of DE Bertrand Berry, OLB Chike Okeafor, and S Adrian Wilson after injuries LY, plus free-agent DE Travis LaBoy joining the proceedings. Cards have given up only 23 points TY.
(07-WASH. 21-Ariz. 19...A.19-10 A.30/84 W.28/73 A.28/42/2/280 W.12/18/1/87 W.0 A.1)
(07-WASHINGTON -8 21-19...SR: Washington 72-44-2)

NEW ENGLAND 22 - Miami 13?Tom Brady and Randy Moss were way too much for the downtrodden Dolphins LY. Miami is still down in the dumps, but not as deep in the muck as LY. And, of course, Pats adjusting to life without their MVP QB. Thus, will give the Dolphins one more shot, despite last week?s early defensive collapse in Arizona, until we find New England?s new, true balancing point with Matt Cassel (16 of 23, 0 TDs, 0 ints. in first start) at QB.
(07-N. Eng. 49-MIAMI 28...M.25-23 M.30/179 N.22/84 N.22/28/1/359 M.24/37/1/203 N.0 M.1)
(07-N. ENG. 28-Miami 7...N.19-15 N.25/196 M.22/108 N.18/33/2/204 M.18/41/0/133 N.2 M.0)
(07-New England -16 49-28, NEW ENGLAND -22 28-7...SR: Miami 48-37)

CHICAGO 27 - Tampa Bay 20?Will T.B. return to Jeff Garcia (who denies his ankle was so sore as to keep him sidelined last week), or stick with Brian Griese,who was 3-3 as a starter for the Bears in 2007 before a shoulder injury and is now 1-0 TY with the Bucs? Since Chicago QB Orton avoiding TOs (none so far) and T.B. 3-6 SU last 1+ seasons on the road, will side with improved Bears (check status of Devin Hester?s rib injury). Chicago has had a knack of going ?over? at home lately (15-4 of last 19).
(06-CHICAGO -13' 34-31 (OT)...SR: Chicago 35-17)

Carolina 22 - MINNESOTA 13?All of the pieces seem to be in place for Minnesota?except at QB (no wonder owner Zygi Wilf risked tampering charges with his interest in Brett Favre during the summer!). But as long as it?s Tarvaris Jackson, have little interest supporting Vikes vs. quality foes, of which rebounding Carolina (2-0 for first time since ?03 Super Bowl year) certainly qualifies. Tough-minded Panthers and physical Oregon rookie RB J. Stewart (77 YR & 2 TDs vs. rugged Bears) not likely to abandon infantry assault as do most Minnesota foes. Jake Delhomme smiling from Charlotte to Greensboro this week with return of home run WR Steve Smith from suspension, especially vs. Minny secondary.
(06-MINNESOTA P 16-13 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 4-3)

SEATTLE 27 - St. Louis 20?St. Louis happy to be facing a fellow troubled team after being clobbered at Philly and by Super Bowl champion Giants the first two weeks. Rams sporting a 5-13 spread mark last 18 games. But at least their top (RB Steven Jackson) & top WR (Torry Holt) are healthy, something injury-plagued Seahawks can?t say. Matt Hasselbeck (2 damaging ints. last week vs. S.F.) misses his favorite targets.
(07-SEA. 33-St. Lou. 6...Se.19-15 Se.32/100 St.17/53 Se.18/35/1/189 St.21/40/3/168 Se.0 St.2)
(07-Sea. 24-ST. LOU. 19...Se.18-17 St.31/104 Se.19/87 Se.21/38/1/215 St.23/37/2/161 Se.1 St.0)
(07-SEATTLE -8 33-6, Seattle -3 24-19...SR: EVEN 10-10)

SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Detroit 23?S.F. offensive coordinator Mike Martz against the team that fired him after LY, with Jim Colletto hired to develop a more worthy ground game so the Lions can better exploit the talents of WRs Roy Williams & Calvin Johnson. Also, new 49er starting QB J.T. O?Sullivan rode the pine in Detroit LY. So, will this be a game of egos? S.F. prefers to make it more one of defense after the Lions have been ripped for 921 yards & 82 points in the first two games.
(06-San Francisco +6 19-13...SR: San Francisco 33-27-1)

DENVER 31 - New Orleans 24?Bronco offense being sparked by its WRs,with super-quick rookie WR Eddie Royal (14 recs) seemingly the perfect complement to the 6-4, 230 Brandon Marshall, who had 18 catches vs. S.D.And, while 2008 N.O. defense might be improved, it has some holes after three starters missed action in last week?s 29-24 loss at Washington. Deuce McAllister (only 2 carries TY) not 100%. No surprise if this one goes ?over,? as Denver ?over? 18 of its last 23, while Saints ?over? 15 of 21!
(04-Denver -5 34-13...SR: Denver 6-2)

Pittsburgh 20 - PHILADELPHIA 17?With Ben Roethlisberger?s shoulder having passed the test last week at Cleveland, Steelers have a lot going for them early in the season. A healthy RB Willie Parker, two outstanding WRs in Hines Ward & deep threat Santonio Holmes, a fierce and mobile set of LBs (again), and Troy Polamalu?s presence in the secondary. Eagles have not been a dominating home favorite, and they are 11-6-1 ?under? last 18 at home.
(2008 Preseason: Pittsburgh -1 beat Philadelphia 16-10 in Pittsburgh)
(04-PITTSBURGH +1 27-3...SR: Philadelphia 46-27-3)

INDIANAPOLIS 23 - Jacksonville 13?After doses of Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson the past two weeks, Indy might finally catch a break against bangedup,makeshift Jacksonville OL that has neither been able to open many holes for Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew nor provide much protection for the harried David Garrard, who?s already thrown as many picks (3) as he did all of ?07. Indy ground forces have gone nowhere yet, but at least Colts have Peyton Manning and a bounce in their step again after dramatic late rally at Minnesota. Jags (only 13 ppg) hard-pressed to outscore competent oppositon until further notice.
(07-Indy 29-JACK. 7...I.24-18 I.33/141 J.27/117 I.23/37/1/243 J.17/36/2/109 I.0 J.1)
(07-INDY 28-Jack. 25...J.27-19 J.31/168 I.25/63 I.20/29/1/279 J.24/29/1/243 I.0 J.1)
(07-Indianapolis -3 29-7, INDIANAPOLIS -6' 28-25...SR: Indianapolis 11-3)

Cleveland 20 - BALTIMORE 16?Cleveland QB Derek Anderson was 2-0 in 2007 vs. the Baltimore team that probably should never have let him go. Now,Anderson owns a significant experience edge over rookie Joe Flacco, who?s making just his second start after facing a Cincy team of few strengths in his first-ever game before being ?hurricaned out? at Houston. Cleveland owns the superior receivers, and Browns pleased to be taking on someone their own size after dealing with Cowboys and Steelers first two weeks.
(07-CLE. 27-Balt. 13...B.16-12 B.20/111 C.30/99 B.34/53/1/307 C.10/18/1/204 C.0 B.1)(07-Cle. 33-BALT. 30 (OT)...B.23-22 B.25/128 C.34/117 C.24/38/1/263 B.22/41/2/240 C.1 B.2)(07-CLEVELAND +4 27-13, Cleveland -2' 33-30 (OT)...SR: Baltimore 11-7)it in the irregular meetings of these two, with the host going 14-2 SU the last 27 years. Brett Favre was injured after throwing 2 ints. in LY?s meeting, with Aaron Rodgers (18 of 26, 1 TD) enjoying the best and most extensive performance of his career until taking over this season. Tony Romo had 4 TDP in the game,which the Cowboys led 27-10 midway in the third Q. But that was in Dallas. Have to be impressed with the way Rodgers is already ?looking off? DBs and hitting alternate targets. Note: Packers ?over? 16 of last 20. TV?NBC
(07-DALLAS 37-G. Bay 27...D.23-20 G.19/124 D.28/105 D.19/30/1/309 G.23/40/2/233 D.0 G.0)
(07-DALLAS -7 37-27...SR: Dallas 15-12)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

OVER THE TOTAL *SAN DIEGO 28 - NY Jets 26?Chargers upset about getting the worst of the officiating last week in Denver, and they also greatly miss the intimidating presence of OLB Shawne Merriman, as the remaining S.D. pass rushers were able to apply little pressure last week in Denver, with Jay Cutler sacked only once while passing for 350 yards and 4 TDs, plus the game-winning two-pointer. That gave the Bolts two straight lastsecond losses. With L.T. limping, maybe they don?t pull away from Favre, who can trade throws with Philip Rivers and help put this one ?over.?
(05-San Diego -6 31-26...SR: San Diego 18-12-1)





COLLEGE ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES
COLORADO by 7 over West Virginia (Thursday, September 18)
OHIO Plus over Northwestern
SOUTHERN MISS by 21 over Marshall
MINNESOTA by 19 over Florida Atlantic

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

COLORADO 24 - West Virginia 17?Both teams off last week. Key question is whether WV can get its offense going after 5 Patrick White TDP in opener vs. Villanova, but then only 3 points & 251 yards at East Carolina?Colorado sees plenty of spread offenses in the Big XII, allowing 23 ppg LY vs.Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas and Texas Tech, but 55 to Mizzou. Buffs need some ball control from frosh RB Darrell Scott to help scrappy QB Hawkins.
(FIRST MEETING)

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

*CONNECTICUT 33 - Baylor 13?Sure, moribund Baylor program getting jolt of excitement from electric new QB Robert Griffin (school-record 217 YR on just 11 carries last week). But this is the precocious true frosh?s first road start.UConn?s veteran defense hasn?t allowed a meaningful TD in first 3 games, jr.RB Donald Brown has 566 YR (2nd in nation) & 8 TDs, and Huskies 15-4 vs.spread last 19 at Hartford. (FIRST MEETING)

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

PENN STATE 42 - Temple 10?Al Golden has Temple off to a 3-0 spread start, and Owls have better athletes than in past. That being said, Penn State has a deep and explosive offense capable of covering big numbers, and Joe Paterno has a history of laying the wood to outmanned foes (12-3 last 15 laying double digits). Possible lookahead to Illinois and Nittany Lion defensive attrition only potential Penn State stumbling blocks.
(07-Penn St. 31-TEMPLE 0...P.25-16 P.41/202 T.23/4 P.22/33/1/260 T.26/43/0/238 P.1 T.1)
(07-Penn State -25' 31-0 06-PENN STATE -36' 47-0...SR: Penn State 33-3-1)

BOSTON COLLEGE 17 - Ucf 13?Retooling UCF attack doesn?t appear capable of generating much against BC?s rock-ribbed front 7. Still, it?s clear that new Eagle QB Crane (only 248 YP in first 2 games) is no Matt Ryan. Knights have very experienced defense, and ?technicals? (UCF 5-1 last 6 as dog; BC just 4-9 previous 13 as chalk) say take points. (FIRST MEETING)

Ohio 30 - NORTHWESTERN 31?Ohio U. got a major bounce-back performance from QB Boo Jackson (365 YP, 3 TDs, 0 ints.) subbing for the injured Theo Scott last week, and hungry 0-3 Bobcats capable of putting up a fight. Undefeated Northwestern has faced a much less-demanding schedule than Ohio, and the two teams have given up basically the same amount of yards. NU 3-10 last 13 as a home favorite; Bobcats 7-3 last 10 as a road dog.
(05-NORTHWESTERN -14' 38-14...SR: Northwestern 2-1)

*CINCINNATI 23 - Miami-Ohio 21?Cincy has seized upper hand lately in rivalry that dates to 19th century. Sr. QB Grutza?s broken leg at Oklahoma leaves Bearcats with little experience under center. However, superior athleticism on defense might still allow Cincy to make it 3 straight over Miami.But no surprise if battle-tested jr. QB Raudabaugh & trio of top-notch LBs help revenge-minded RedHawks (7-1 last 8 as road dog) take this one to wire.
(07-Cincy 47-MIAMI 10...C.24-21 C.42/141 M.24/56 C.26/37/0/297 M.27/54/3/267 C.0 M.1)
(07-Cincy -7 47-10 06-CINCY -11' 24-10 05-MIAMI -10 44-16...SR: Miami-Ohio 59-46-7)

*MISSISSIPPI 28 - Vanderbilt 27?In battle between two vastly-improved squads, prefer to ?take? with 3-0 Vandy, now 9-3 last 12 as an SEC dog, including minor upset in Oxford in ?06. Ole Miss? strong-armed QB Sneed will be seriously tested by veteran, ball-hawking Vandy 2ndary that impressively skunked prolific Rice aerial assault in 2nd H of 38-21 Nashville victory week ago.?Dores dual-threat QB Nickson (268 YR, 5.5 ypc, 5 TDs, no ints. TY) & 5-10 jr.RB Hawkins (242 YR, 4.8 ypc) will gash a still-developing Rebel defense that?s allowed points in 7 of 8 Qs vs. FBS squads.
(07-VANDY 31-Miss. 17...V.25-13 V.49/183 M.32/54 M.11/22/1/208 V.18/26/0/200 V.1 M.0)
(07-VANDY -6 31-17 06-MISS. +1' 17-10 05-VANDY -2' 31-23...SR: Miss. 46-34-2)

GEORGIA TECH 23 - Mississippi State 16?Despite facing rock-ribbed defensive squads of Boston College & Virginia Tech, GT?s mobile & surprisingly strong-armed soph QB Nesbitt (261 YR, 4.8 ypc; 43-yd TD pass vs. Virginia Tech) has run Paul Johnson?s well-designed attack with precision and fluidity.Nesbitt & RBs Dwyer & Cox find room vs. over-aggressive Bulldog stop unit defense that must play ?assignment? defense vs. a clever option attack it so rarely faces. Meanwhile, still offensively -punchless MSU attack hard-pressed to establish its bread and butter run attack vs. Engineers seasoned & stout DL.
(DNP...SR: Georgia Tech 2-0)

BYU 45 - Wyoming 7?Sure, must pay higher price following BYU?s 59-0 blasting vs. UCLA. But that won?t dissuade us from bucking still-wallowing Wyo, a ghastly 2-15-1 vs. spread last 18 on board. Cougs sizzling QB Hall (78%,1,095 YP) will continue to put up eye-popping numbers vs. a Cowboy 2ndary that allowed Ohio to throw for 248. BCS-bowl seeking Cougs easily cover their 5th straight in series vs. Wyo squad still lacking any substantial QB production (meager 90 YP vs North Dakota St.!)
07-Byu 35-WYO. 10...B.27-19 B.36/135 W.24/9 B.28/40/0/362 W.24/40/1/268 B.0 W.0)
(07-Byu -10' 35-10 06-BYU -18' 55-7 05-Byu -4 35-21...SR: BYU 41-30-3)

*AUBURN 16 - Lsu 13?In clash between two similar SEC West contenders, give slight edge to Auburn squad buoyed by vociferous fan support in Jordan-Hare Stadium, where host is 30-7 SU since 2003. LSU?s potent stable of RBs will have rough time vs. fierce AU front 7 (2 ypc), putting undue pressure on inexperienced QBs Hatch and/or J. Lee, who?ve had it easy thus far. While Auburn?s new spread attack is a work in progress (315 yds., but only a FG vs. Miss. St.), believe capable QB Todd able to effectively work some playaction passes vs. untested LSU 2ndary breaking in new CBs in their 1st game away from Baton Rouge. AU hasn?t lost two straight in series since ?95-?96. TV-ESPN
(07-LSU 30-Auburn 24...L.23-16 L.33/169 A.35/97 L.22/35/1/319 A.18/28/0/199 L.1 A.0)
(07-LSU -10 30-24 06-AUBURN -3' 7-3 05-LSU -6 20-17 (OT)...SR: LSU 22-19-1)

Alabama 23 - ARKANSAS 19?Though youthful Arkansas has eked out victories vs. Western Illinois & UL Monroe (remember, Warhawks upset Bama LY), still inclined to take a more generous number vs. Bama squad with just one SEC road win by more a TD since ?05. Hogs battle-tested, 6-2 sr. QB Casey Dick has quickly developed rapport with soph TE D. J. Williams & prized frosh WR J. Adams (combined 20 catches), while versatile 5-7 RB M. Smith (157 YR & 4 catches in ?08 debut vs. ULM) keeps Tide LBs at bay.
(07-ALA. 41-Ark. 38...Al.24-22 Ar.53/301 Al.34/123 Al.24/45/2/327 Ar.12/25/1/149 Al.1 Ar.2)
(07-ALA. -3 41-38 06-ARK. -2' 24-23 (OT) 05-ALA. -15' 24-13...SR: Alabama 22-15)

SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Marshall 16?Former Oklahoma State o.c.Larry Fedora?s attack still a work in progress at Southern Miss, although maturing RS frosh QB Austin Davis has developed nice rapport with all-conf. sr.TE Shawn Nelson (19 catches for 228 yards in last 2 games). Much rather lay points than take them with Marshall, which is money-burning 4-19 vs. spread its last 23 on road!
(07-S. Miss 33-MAR. 24...S.21-20 S.41/160 M.31/99 S.23/30/0/310 M.20/38/3/309 S.0 M.1)
(07-Usm -3' 33-24 06-USM -7 42-7 05-Usm -7 27-24 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 3-0)

Houston 35 - COLORADO STATE 23 Houston ?D? has been put in positions as awkward as Sarah Palin during her interview with Charlie Gibson last week.But pedestrian CSU attack not likely to cause the sort of problems that highpowered Ok. State and precision-based Air Force presented in last two games.With Rams still unable to establish credible infantry diversion, trust prolific Coug QB Keenum (13 TDP already!) to fire more scoring shots than CSU counterpart Farris.
(07-HOU. 38-Colo. St. 27...H.22-13 H.44/153 C.38/126 H.22/31/1/247 C.16/26/1/227 H.1 C.1)
(07-HOUSTON -6' 38-27...SR: Houston 2-0)

Rutgers 30 - NAVY 24?Which is fixable of what obviously ails these two? Measured vote for Rutgers? psyche, admittedly on shaky side after sloppy home defeats vs. Fresno and UNC. But Navy apparently missing Paul Johnson?s shrewd game management more than anticipated, and undersized Mid ?D? helpless vs. competent opposition. Maybe Scarlet Knights don?t qualify as such in current state, but remember Navy option is no secret to Rutgers ?D? that has kept it check in recent meetings.
(07-RUTGERS 41-Navy 24...R.24-20 N.54/254 R.43/210 R.14/19/1/266 N.5/12/3/35 R.0 N.0)
(07-RUTGERS -16 41-24 06-Rutgers +2' 34-0 05-RUTGERS -6' 31-21...SR: EVEN 11-11-1)

NORTH CAROLINA 24 - Virginia Tech 19?Key early clash in ACC?s wideopen Coastal Division. Is up-and-coming Carolina ready to knock off old-guard Va. Tech? Wouldn?t sell Hokies short, as wily old HC Beamer still has enough defense & special teams to prevail in close games. Current reality, however,finds Tar Heels with HUGE edge in terms of overall offensive firepower. UNC sr.WR/return man Tate has 616 all-purpose yards in just 2 games, inhaling 356 of those on just 13 touches from scrimmage!.
(07-VA. TECH 17-N. Car. 10...N.18-13 V.36/165 N.45/124 N.16/25/1/182 V.11/20/1/76 V.0 N.1)
(07-TECH -19 17-10 06-Tech -13 35-10 05-TECH -23' 30-3...SR: Virginia Tech 16-9-6)

Iowa 21 - PITTSBURGH 16?Iowa defense, led by emerging soph DE Clayborn (leads team with 21 tackles) and sr. DTs King & Kroul, has been a dominant unit thus far, allowing just 2 FGs in three games. Hawkeyes took a safety with 28 secs. left to give away the cover against Iowa St. last week, but Pitt won?t be so lucky. Panther RB LeSean McCoy will find the Iowa front 7 a bit tougher than Bowling Green or Buffalo. (DNP...SR: Pitt 2-1)

*Wake Forest 23 - FLORIDA STATE 20?Although several TGS scouts insist slumbering giant is waking in Tallahassee, not ready to buck well-coached Wake based solely on revenge-minded Seminoles? easy wins over lightweights W. Carolina & Chattanooga. Acknowledge that FSU offense looks much sharper with resourceful soph Ponder at trigger. But suspension-strapped Seminoles (see Special Ticker) still not at full strength, so prefer to side with crafty QB Skinner (72% last 1+ seasons) & Deacons? play-making defense. TV-ESPN2
(07-W. FOR. 24-Fla. St. 21...W.18-14 W.48/180 F.24/47 F.24/48/2/283 W.19/27/2/215 W.1 F.2)
(07-WFU +5' 24-21 06-Wfu +8' 30-0 05-FSU -21 41-24...SR: Florida State 21-4-1)

MICHIGAN STATE 28 - Notre Dame 16?Not sure ND can maintain emotional edge that fueled 21-0 start at home against Michigan last week. Irish defense yielded 131 YR to Wolverine RB McGuffie & 6.6 ypc to SDS RB Sullivan, so Spartans? Javon Ringer (166 ypg rushing; 9 TDs) figures to give rebuilt ND DL major problems. Ranking 96th in total offense an indication the Irish attack has improved only incrementally over last season (last in the nation in ?07). HC Charlie Weis traveling/coaching with busted knee ligaments. TV?ABC
(07-Mich. St. 31-N. DAME 14...M.19-9 M.49/219 N.35/117 M.11/24/1/135 N.11/20/0/86 M.1 N.1)
(07-Msu -10' 31-14 06-Und -3 40-37 05-Msu +5' 44-41 (OT)...SR: Notre Dame 44-26-1)

OREGON 31 - Boise State 26?There?s more evidence than against O.J. Simpson in his latest trial that there?s really nothing to fear in Pac-10 (outside of USC) this season. And even though Oregon displaying Crater Lake-like depth at skill positions (capable juco Masoli & true frosh Harper likely to handle QB duties after starter Roper injured knee late at Purdue), WAC sources say Boise HC Petersen very satisfied with steady progress of new RS frosh QB Moore, who?s hit 72% of his passes in early going, with plethora of established complementary weapons at his disposal. (FIRST MEETING)

Utah 27 - AIR FORCE 26?Plenty of early positives both ways. But if there?s a foe that might be able to exploit Utah?s troubling cluster of DL injuries (as limited Utah State could not last week), it?s Air Force, especially with Falc option game hardly missing a beat with new QB Shea Smith, and even more dangerous when bread-and-butter dive plays gaining consistent chunks of yardage (as they did in AFA?s 334 YR in last year?s upset win at Salt Lake City). Falcs 11-3 vs.line for HC Calhoun!
(07-A. Force 20-UTAH 12...A.20-15 A.63/334 U.33/73 U.20/39/2/240 A.8/14/0/56 A.1 U.0)
(07-Air Force +7' 20-12 06-Utah -1 17-14 05-UTAH -7 38-35...SR: Air Force 14-10)

*TULSA 41 - New Mexico 27?That was a Mariano Rivera-like ?save? for New Mexico and HC Rocky Long last week vs. Arizona, as natives had become restless in Albuquerque after 0-2 start. But things won?t get any easier for Lobos vs. potent (52 ppg!) and rested Tulsa bunch that has been so excellent on attack end that HC Graham hasn?t been able get juco QB Bower promised snaps because of new starter David Johnson?s flawless execution (NCAA-best 241
passer rating!). (DNP...SR: EVEN 2-2)

*INDIANA 31 - Ball State 30?Vet Ball State attack led by efficient QB Nate Davis (39 TD passes, just 9 ints. last 16 games) capable of trading scores all the way against Indiana. Hoosier QB Lewis has looked sharp in leading Indiana to a pair of victories against W. Ky. and Murray St., but Indiana facing a tougher foe in Brady Hoke?s explosive Falcons.
(07-IND. 38-Ball St. 20...B.22-19 I.31/108 B.32/67 I.22/35/1/354 B.27/49/2/345 I.2 B.0)
(07-INDIANA -6' 38-20 06-Indiana -3' 24-23...SR: Indiana 4-0)

PURDUE 40 - Central Michigan 24?Purdue players seemed upbeat in postgame interviews after leading 20-3 against Oregon last week, only to lose in OT. Certainly, Boiler QB Curtis Painter can?t wait to face the CMU defense, after he threw for 906 yds. & 6 TDs in a pair of victories over the Chippewas last season. MAC MVP QB Dan LeFevour will move the ball, but the CMU pass defense ranks 108th.
(07-PURDUE 45-C. Mich. 22...P.30-23 P.37/223 C.33/101 C.35/56/1/364 P.29/40/1/360 P.4 C.2)
(07-Purdue 51-C. MICH. 48...P.28-22 C.44/143 P.27/41 P.35/54/2/546 C.17/35/0/292 P.1 C.0)
(07-PURDUE -21' 45-22, Purdue -8 51-48 (Motor City Bowl)...SR: EVEN 2-2)

Akron 30 - ARMY 16?Although Akron is just 3-7 last 10 as a favorite, and Army is coming off a bye week after losing to New Hampshire, favor Zips against undermanned host. Stan Brock?s Cadets have again been plagued by turnovers (minus-32 margin in last 24 games on the line). After facing Wisconsin and Ball State attacks, Army?s pedestrian offense could seem like a scrimmage vs. the ?twos? for Zip defense.
(07-AKRON 22-Army 14...Ak.18-17 Ak.35/133 Ar.29/58 Ar.23/44/2/184 Ak.17/29/0/154 Ak.0 Ar.0)
(07-AKRON -5' 22-14 at Browns Stadium 05-Army +8' 20-0...SR: Army 3-1)

MARYLAND 30 - Eastern Michigan 13?Last week?s wire-to-wire home victory over Cal a soothing salve for Maryland?s wounded psyche following mortifying loss at Sun Belt rep Middle Tennessee. Terps (just 1-8 last 9 laying points!) do tend to play down to level of competition, however.
(DNP...SR: Maryland 3-0)

*TEXAS A&M 23 - Miami-Florida 21?Miami?s defensive speed should allow Hurricanes to keep things tight in battle of two teams adjusting to new offensive schemes?A&M to Mike Sherman?s version of the West Coast, and Miami incorporating spread-option plays for mobile RS frosh QB Robert Marve.Will it be sr. Stephen McGee (mild shoulder separation at New Mexico) or promising 6-5 soph Jerrod Johnson (3 TDP vs. Lobos) at QB for Aggies? TV-ABC
(07-MIAMI 34-Tex. A&M 17...M.18-12 M.40/127 T.33/98 M.21/26/0/275 T.12/22/1/142 M.3 T.2)
(07-MIAMI-FLORIDA -2' 34-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)


East Carolina 24 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 10?No surprise that ECU was a little flat at Tulane last week after earning Top-20 ranking with wins over Va. Tech & West Virginia. Pirates will have no problem getting fired up for this in-state trip to Raleigh, however. Speedy Wolfpack stop unit capable of holding up its end, but punchless State offense has produced just 3 points in last 13 Qs vs. TGS-rated foes. TV-ESPN
(07-N. Car. St. 34-E. CAR. 20...21-21 E.34/72 N.28/49 N.29/44/1/335 E.28/53/1/254 N.1 E.1)
(07-Ncs +5' 34-20 06-Ecu +3 21-16...SR: North Carolina State 15-10)

MISSOURI 54 - Buffalo 13?It?s hard to pick against sizzling Mizzou, which scored on its first 10 possessions last week against Nevada and has scored in 64 of 68 Qs over the last two seasons! Chase Daniel (72% with 10 TDs and only 1 int.) has been nearly perfect, and Jeremy Maclin (3 TDC in first 33 mins. vs.Nevada last week) back at full speed after early-season injury. Improving Bulls 7-4 last 11 as a DD road dog, but Tigers on 14-3 spread roll. (FIRST MEETING)

*Fresno State 30 - TOLEDO 27?We doubt that pugnacious Pat Hill will allow his Fresno troops to wallow in ?what ifs? after longshot BCS dreams were likely scuttled by Wisconsin last week. Hey, there?s a lot of football left to be played?it?s only mid-September, for gosh sakes! But also not sure we?re interested in laying a heavy price at Glass Bowl vs. offensively-competent Toledo bunch that can balance things nicely for efficient QB Opelt with blasts from RB Collins (7.7 ypc).
(05-FRESNO STATE -12' 44-14...SR: Fresno State 1-0)

*TEXAS 48 - Rice 13?Texas enjoyed unanticipated bye week, with Hurricane Ike causing a postponement of its game vs. Arkansas. That extra healing and prep time might turn out to be bad news for Rice, which has been hammered to the tune of 161-31 the last three years by the bigger Longhorns (led 41-7 LY at the H). UT doesn?t run as well TY, but savvy QB Colt McCoy showing great rapport with sr. WRs Quan Crosby & Jordan Shipley. Owls hurting at LB.
(07-TEXAS 58-Rice 14...T.25-17 T.40/227 R.30/M11 T.20/31/0/333 R.23/38/2/279 T.1 R.0)
(07-TEXAS -38' 58-14 06-Texas -32 52-7 05-TEXAS -40' 51-10...SR: Texas 68-21-1)

UTAH STATE 31 - Idaho 23?It?s difficult to make a case for either of these WAC stragglers, but we?ll try. USU stepping w-a-a-a-y-y-y down in class after Oregon & Utah, and regional scouts reported signs of life with option elements of Aggie ?O? before it was stonewalled by Utes. Meanwhile, nothing positive to report at Idaho, allowing 61 ppg vs. TGS-rated foes and now 1-10 vs. line last 11 on board. Vandals plumbing slightly greater depths of ineptitude these days.
(07-Utah St. 24-IDAHO 19...I.24-15 I.52/237 U.44/154 I.14/27/3/191 U.11/15/0/118 U.1 I.1)
(07-Usu +2' 24-19 06-Idaho -2' 41-21 05-IDAHO +2 27-13...SR: EVEN 16-16-2)

*Tcu 38 - SMU 13?Taking points has been profitable in this Dallas-area rivalry lately, with SMU covering 4 of last 5 against Fort Worth neighbor TCU.Horned Frogs? IMMENSE defensive edge might hold sway this time around,however, as true frosh Mustang QB Bo Levi Mitchell (8 ints. in decisive losses to Rice & Texas Tech) so far shooting himself in foot with June Jones? ?Red Gun.?
(07-TCU 21-Smu 7...S.23-13 S.47/149 T.34/142 S.19/34/1/203 T.11/26/0/108 T.2 S.1)
(07-TCU -23 21-7 05-SMU +14' 21-10...SR: TCU 41-38-7)

Florida 24 - TENNESSEE 23?Of course, UF has decided edge at QB with Mr. Tebow, but recommend ?taking? with fired-up UT squad still fuming from 59-20 pasting in The Swamp LY (see Looking for an Angle). Vols effectively moved the pocket for QB Crompton in 35-3 romp vs. UAB. And his deep stable of RBs & WRs capable of piercing maturing but unfinished Florida defense in 1st road test of year. Gator ground game still lacks much pop (only 89 YR vs. Miami-Florida), and not so sure Tebow puts up Heisman numbers vs. cohesive, tight-covering Vol 2ndary (self-named ?Goon Squad?), featuring omnipresent,super-soph SS Berry. UT is 4-0 as a home dog since ?06, while Meyer?s troops just 2-9 as visiting chalk since ?05. TV?CBS
(07-FLA. 59-Tenn. 20...F.23-14 F.46/255 T.21/37 F.14/19/1/299 T.28/46/2/261 F.0 T.1)
(07-FLA. -7 59-20 06-Fla. -3' 21-20 05-FLA. -6' 16-7...SR: Tennessee 19-18)

*Georgia 31 - ARIZONA STATE 20?Even if shocking loss vs. UNLV results in a slight pointspread benefit for ASU, not interested in taking bait with Dennis Erickson?s troops, who were manhandled by Georgia-like athletes from Southern Cal & Texas a year ago. Dawgs have plenty of similar quicks on ?D? to pressure Sun Devil QB Carpenter and to stick with group of ASU wideouts not to be mistaken for Usain Bolt. And after facing a heavy dose of super-quick SEC defenses the past year, Knowshon Moreno and friends likely not troubled by Sun Devil defenders who couldn?t stop the likes of UNLV?s Omar Clayton (who?) in crunch time last week. REGIONAL TV?ABC (FIRST MEETING)

*UNLV 27 - Iowa State 20?UNLV skill players showing encouraging development under HC Sanford, with long-armed 6-3 true frosh WR Phillip Payne joining RB Frank ?The Tank? Summers (103 YR at Arizona State) and veteran wideouts Ryan Wolfe & Casey Flair as support for improving soph QB Omar Clayton. ISU was helped by 4 fumble recoveries in scoring 48 points vs.Kent State, but was held without a TD last week at Iowa.
(06-IOWA STATE -14 16-10...SR: Iowa State 4-0)

*STANFORD 26 - San Jose State 24?Jim Harbaugh might not overlook nearby San Jose (which was injury-ravaged when pounded 37-0 by Cardinal in ?07) as have some past Stanford mentors. But Bay Area scouts taking note of undervalued Spartan bunch that?s gained some traction in recent weeks with emergence of Cal transfer QB Kyle Reed and availability of mini-RB Yonus Davis (143 YR in SDSU romp). Stanford QB Pritchard (just 1 TDP) still blowing hot-and-cold.
(07-STAN. 37-San Jose St. 0...St.26-10 St.48/276 Sj.25/32 St.19/30/1/230 Sj.13/28/1/131 St.0 Sj.0)
(07-STANFORD -7 37-0 06-SAN JOSE ST. +10 35-34...SR: Stanford 47-14-1)

*UTEP 26 - New Mexico State 24?In ?Battle of I-10? rivalry, would lean to NMS team that owns the firepower to trade all the way with UTEP squad just 1-8 as chalk since ?06. Aggies prolific QB Holbrook (434 YP vs. Miners in ?07) and speedy WR C. Williams (9 catches for 221 yds. 2 TDs) licking their chops after playing pitch and catch in 29-24 Albuquerque win LY. UTEP?s switch to 3-3-5 defense not paying dividends so far. Miner losing streak now at eight.
(07-N. MEX. ST. 29-Utep 24...N.25-13 N.32/113 U.29/79 N.36/48/1/434 U.16/28/1/266 N.1 U.1)
(07-NMS -5 29-24 06-UTEP -16' 44-38 05-Utep -9' 34-17...SR: UTEP 49-34-2)

Arizona 24 - UCLA 16?Which of these two is better equipped to get off the deck? A measured vote for Arizona, thanks to sr. QB Tuitama and moreestablished offensive weaponry that burned a better DeWayne Walker UCLA ?D? last November. Meanwhile, Rick Neuheisel might have to consult with Dr. Phil to soothe battered Bruin psyche after BYU fiasco. Or perhaps find Alan Alda and the rest of the old cast from M*A*S*H after mounting injuries continue to deplete OL and skill positions.
(07-ARIZ. 34-Ucla 27...A.21-14 U.41/145 A.34/128 A.21/36/0/341 U.10/28/0/143 A.0 U.0)
(07-ARIZONA +1 34-27 06-UCLA -12 27-7 05-ARIZONA +9 52-14...SR: UCLA 19-11-2)

ADDED GAMES

OHIO STATE 35 - Troy 10?Not more Trojans! Buckeyes saw enough of the USC kind in their 35-3 embarrassment in L.A. Now, the question is whether OSU mopes about that loss or bounces back with a vengeance vs. athletic, welltraveled Troy, which played at Arkansas, Florida & Georgia LY! Trojans got ?hang in theres? vs. Hogs & Bulldogs, but lost 59-31 in the Swamp. Trojans younger in backfield in 2008, but soph QB Jamie Hampton & 5-8 soph RB DuJuan Harris helped Troy to 736 yards of offense in last week?s 65-0 rout of
Alcorn State. (FIRST MEETING)

*Middle Tennessee St. 24 - ARKANSAS STATE 22? Hard to explain MTSU?s curious recent series domination (Blue Raiders have won and covered last 5, all by DD margins!). But will stick with trend as long as hot MTSU QB Craddock (355 YP at Kentucky) keeps firing away?and as long as Rick Stockstill gets Blue Raiders? chins back up after last-second Hail Mary nearly resulted in miracle win at Lexington.
(07-MTS 24-Ark. St. 7...M.22-8 M.49/205 A.33/22 M.11/24/1/179 A.9/19/3/116 M.0 A.1)
(07-MTS -2' 24-7 06-Mts -4 38-10 05-MTS -5 45-7...SR: Middle Tennessee State 8-1)

La.- Monroe 28 - TULANE 26?Trip to mostly-empty Superdome hardly intimidating for road-tested ULM, which has traveled to several of college football?s most daunting venues over last few seasons. Although C-USA scouts raving about Tulane?s stout rush ?D? (only 155 yards in first 2 games), cagey sr.QB Lancaster capable of leading Warhawks to mild upset.
(DNP...SR: Tulane 1-0)

MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19?Minnesota found a replacement for injured RB Bennett last week, as frosh Eskridge rambled 114 yards and 3 TDs against Montana State. FAU was beaten worse than 17-0 score last week, as Javon Ringer ran for 282 yards. Gopher QB Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in total offense, and WR Eric Decker leads that league in receiving. HC Brewster gets revenge for last year while Gophers surge to 4-0 heading into Big Ten play.
(07-FAU 42-Minn. 39...M.29-24 M.28/135 F.41/117 F.27/44/0/463 M.31/47/4/335 F.0 M.3)
(07-FLORIDA ATLANTIC +7 42-39 05-MINNESOTA -32 46-7...SR: EVEN 1-1)

*South Florida 47 - FLORIDA INTL. 10?In its last 9 games vs. non-Sun Belt foes, FIU?s offense has mustered only 3 TDs.
(06-S. FLA. -20 21-20...SR: S. Fla. 1-0)

*LA.-LAFAYETTE 31 - Kent State 24?With plucky ULL gaining confidence
following surprisingly competitive 20-17 loss at Illinois, expect well-coached Ragin? Cajuns (under savvy 7th-year HC Bustle) to prevail vs. mistake-prone Kent State (10 TOs so far) on extended 0-9 spread run. ULL?s multi-tasking, option-running QB Desormeaux (188 YR, 6.3 ypc; 200 YP vs. Illini) & recordbreaking RB Fenroy (just became school?s all-time leading rusher) will flummox a Flash defense with a mere 17 takeaways in last 16 games.
(FIRST MEETING)

 

[the duke]

Winning Points


COLLEGE FOOTBALL

BEST BET

MICHIGAN STATE* over NOTRE DAME by 27

If there is ever a silver lining to losing a play, it is getting the chance to come right back with the same concept at even better value the following week. That is the case here after our Michigan call near the top of these pages last week died amidst a series of Wolverine turnovers, and not necessarily through anything special that Notre Dame did. Best example? There were three Michigan fumbles that turned directly into Fighting Irish touchdowns, and on none of those plays were the Wolverine players touched by a defender before he lost the ball. It was literally the ?Luck O? the Irish? that afternoon, yet that is not what the perceptions of the public will be, as it never takes much for this particular program to become popular again. So now a team that managed only 14 first downs and 260 yards in that win, getting only 3.3 per rush and completing less than 50 percent of their passes, is put into a short price range against a far superior opponent, and one that has been laying in wait off of a pair of easy home wins (110 runs vs. only 31 passes as Mark Dantonio kept things close to the vest). The Spartans dominated the Irish exactly as the scoreboard showed in a 31-10 rout in South bend last year, leading 354-203 in total offense, and now they bring Javon Ringer and that power ground game against a defense that has not faced those tactics yet. And until we see any indication that the Irish can run the ball, Jimmy Clausen is a sitting duck on the road vs. this class of pass rush. MICHIGAN STATE 37-10.

BEST BET

RUTGERS over NAVY* by 21

With three straight wins and covers in this series, Greg Schiano and his coaching staff have shown that they have a solid knowledge of how to defend the Navy option schemes. Yet those games did not carry nearly the meaning of this one, with the Scarlet Knights having to deal with the embarrassment of being blown out twice on national television on their own field already, and as a consequence having their backs firmly up against the wall of the 2008 season. But while the public may lose favor with them because of those highly-visible failures, there are plenty of targets ahead for Schiano, particularly with conference play yet to begin. So with extra time to tactically prepare, and with a home game vs. Morgan State next week providing no look-ahead at all, this is an ideal situation for the Scarlet Knights to start all over again. The defensive tactics should once again be sound, and note that in each of the last two meetings they held the Midshipmen to their season lows of rushing yardage and total offense. But that is only the beginning of the Navy problems this time. Now a slow secondary that has already allowed 973 passing yards has to take on that explosive tandem of Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood. Those two caught nine passes for 203 yards vs. this defense last year, when Mike Teel averaged 14 yards per pass attempt, and they bring the talent and the savvy to run free throughout in this one. And with Navy also lacking a pass rush to get to Teel, there is ample time for those deep routes to develop. RUTGERS 41-20.

PREFERRED

Boston College* over Central Florida by 21

With a young corps of skill people, and a not very talented one at that, we could call this the Blanche DuBois season for George O?Leary, who needs to ?depend on the kindness of strangers?. But he is not going to get any of that here. With two weeks to steam off of their sloppy loss to Georgia Tech we can expect the Eagles to bring a special fire to this one, and there is absolutely no letting up either, with only a home game vs. Rhode Island on deck. So what does that leave the Knights with? A tough road matchup vs. a physical defense that will control the line of scrimmage, and force their skill people to make plays. That is their worst nightmare. Although they did get to overtime vs. South Florida, the offense could not score a touchdown for the first 57 minutes of play, and even with the O.T. period they netted just 12 first downs and 226 yards. And that was at home. Now over-matched QB Michael Grecco is going to have to play from behind in a hostile environment, and it will get ugly. BOSTON COLLEGE 28-7.

North Carolina* over Virginia Tech by 12

That dominating win at Rutgers with the pressure of the national cameras will have done wonders for the North Carolina confidence, and that is going to make a big difference when it comes to ?closing the deal? this season. For what may have been lost in their 4-8 of 2007 was just how many strikes they made in the first campaign under Butch Davis. Playing better football is one thing, but actually learning to win is another, and a program that had not had a winning season since 2001 found itself with a roster filled with players that lacked confidence. They went 1-4 in outcomes decided by four points or less, and in many of those games they were actually the better team. Now it is a different season, and good talent and coaching can now equate good results. Getting revenge for that 17-10 loss at Blacksburg is the next step and note that the Carolina talent was already better that day, leading 18-11 in first downs and by 65 yards of total offense. Now they are the ones creating matchup problems. NORTH CAROLINA 25-13.

Utah over Air Force* by 14

By opening 3-0, including covers in both games that were on the board, it is easy for Air Force to continue to earn respect in the Troy Calhoun era. But this line tells us that the cart is ahead of the horse in terms of the 2008 realities. Without Shaun Carney and Chad Hall they have some big shoes to fill, and each of those last two wins may not mean as much as they will get credit for. They were only tied 3-3 in the third quarter at Wyoming, before a +4 advantage in turnovers helped to finally break that one open, and the wind and the rain gave their ground game major advantages against Houston?s passing attack on Saturday. But now they are going up against an opponent that is primed for revenge after LY?s 20-12 home loss, and one that is rock-solid up front against the run. It means that the Falcons are going to have to be successful passing to survive this week, and in getting those last two wins they were an awful 3-11 through the air, for just 15 yards. That is not going to cut it this week. UTAH 27-13.

Georgia over Arizona State* by 17

Getting behind the S.E.C. in major inter-conference showdowns has been a money-maker, and we believe that there is another prime opportunity this week. Even with last Saturday?s loss (we had U.N.L.V. near the top of this page, but never expected the outright win), Arizona State brings enough public sex appeal to keep this line short, but the bottom line is that they are a few years away from being in this class. They werewhipped at the line of scrimmage when Southern Cal came to town last year, managing only 16 rushing yards in a 20-point blowout, and in the 18-point bowl loss to Texas they could only garner 22 overland. Now they once again have to face the kind of physical defensive front they do not see often in Pac 10 play, and we expect to see the Bulldog defense dominating the flow. Meanwhile Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and some talented receivers are accustomed to stepping up against bigger challenges, and will enjoy the breathing room here after being shackled by a tough South Carolina defense. GEORGIA 33-16.

*CLOSE CALLS

Kansas State over Louisville* by 1 (Wednesday)

We are not enamored with the polish of the Wildcats, particularly away from Manhattan. But until we see some kind of positive results from the Big East, all shadings must be against that grouping in competitive non-conference affairs. KANSAS STATE 28-27.

West Virginia over Colorado* by 9 (Thursday)

Bill Stewart is making major statements about going back to more basic zone option plays, and that is bad news for a Colorado defense that sees little of those tactics in the Big 12, and will have a difficult time adjusting to the speed of Pat White. WEST VIRGINIA 31-22.

Connecticut* over Baylor by 15 (Friday)

Huskies have been pointspread demons of late in Hartford (9-2 ATS in their L11), and as much as we like youn Bear QB Robert Griffin, the savvy to take on this class of defense on the road is still a season away. CONNECTICUT 31-16.

Penn State* over Temple by 24

Al Golden?s rebuilding project is making tremendous strides in Philly, but off of back-to-back gut wrenching defeats a young squad can be fragile, especially when having to play from behind against this kind of opponent. We call it a ?snap factor?. PENN STATE 37-13.

Northwestern* over Ohio by 12

All Boo Jackson did as a replacement for Theo Scott as Ohio QB was throw for 365 yards in that loss to Central Michigan, including TD passes of 77, 45 and 43 yards. That could mean a backdoor cover against a Wildcat defense that opens Big 10 play at Iowa next week. NORTHWESTERN 34-22.

Cincinnati* over Miami O. by 9

That 47-10 crunching in Oxford last year was Miami?s worst loss in the ?Victory Bell? series since 1940. But with Cincinnati having two weeks to prepare off of that drubbing at Oklahoma, it not only means a comparable focus, but also ample time for Tony Pike to break in to his role as starting QB. CINCINNATI 28-19.

Mississippi* over Vanderbilt by 6

The first home SEC game for Houston Nutt means a lot, but while we like the direction that the Rebels are showing, there is still a question of having the kind of depth to cover as chalk in conference play. Commodore secondary gives up few big plays, which will keep them in the hunt in hostile environs. MISSISSIPPI 27-21.

Georgia Tech* over Mississippi State by 6

In many ways this can be a carbon copy of the Bulldog loss to Auburn last week. There is enough defense to compete against anyone, but getting any offensive support at all is another matter entirely. GEORGIA TECH 19-13.

L.S.U. over Auburn* by 3

Through three games those new Auburn offensive designs do not give any indication that they are ready for this class of challenge yet. But that defense is another matter, and keeps them in this one to the final drive. L.S.U. 16-13.

Brigham Young* over Wyoming by 27

Wyoming scored three points in the first half vs. Air Force two weeks ago, and then got shutout in the first 30 minutes by North Dakota State last week. And those games were at home. B.Y.U. 37-10.

Alabama over Arkansas* by 8

A case can be made that the Razorbacks got a big break with their trip to Texas being cancelled; not only does it prevent a loss that could shatter their confidence, but it allows a couple of practice week?s to acclimate more to their new playbooks. But nowhere near being ready for this challenge yet. ALABAMA 27-19.

Southern Miss* over Marshall by 9

The Thundering Herd are just 3-11 ATS as road underdogs under Mark Snyder so far. We don?t see this talent gap being as wide as the line projects, but until they show some toughness when traveling they remain off of our board. SOUTHERN MISS 30-21.

Colorado State* over Houston by 1

The team that has the ball last may win this one. The host Rams can pound away against a rush defense that might be the worst in Division I right now, but their own weaknesses at QB become a huge headache for the tactics and the speed of the Cougar offense. COLORADO STATE 36-35.

Iowa over Pittsburgh* by 2

Although the Panthers have two weeks to prepare, and the Hawkeyes are off of that emotional revenge affair vs. Iowa State (including the late safety that ruined our investment on these pages), the bottom line is that if Dave Wannstedt?s team could not rush for only 230 yards vs. those M.A.C. defensive fronts, can they move this calss off of the line of scrimmage? IOWA 19-17.

Wake Forest over Florida State* by 1

Demon Deacons have won and covered the last two in this series, rolling the pointspread by 30 points in the process. That tells us much about the current coaching levels of the programs, and we are not sure that beating up on a pair of patsies has the Seminoles prepared for the polished opponent they are up against here. WAKE FOREST 24-23.

Oregon* over Boise State by 12

Broncos were able to get a little tactical help here buy facing the spread schemes of Bowling Green last week, but now their X?s have to chase much faster O?s, and away from that blue field. OREGON 35-23.

Tulsa* over New Mexico by 10

Lobos have faced a much more difficult schedule do far, but the complex schemes of the Golden Hurricanes are going to be a handful to defend on this field, especially with the offense showing a nice precision with David Johnson a the helm (no turnovers in 133 snaps so far). TULSA 34-24.

Indiana* over Ball State by 6

These two combined for 699 passing yards in a 38-20 Hoosier win on this field last year, when an interception return for a TD helped to build a bigger margin on the scoreboard than the physical play on the field called for. But after coasting twice the host has had two weeks to prepare, which does help the defensive playbook. INDIANA 30-24.

Purdue* over Central Michigan by 13

Chippewas have allowed 54.8 points per game in going 0-5 against teams from BCS conferences the last two seasons, including 45 points and 583 yards in what was a misleading loss to these Boilermakers last year ? they coasted home 45-22 after leading 31-0 at halftime and seemingly getting bored. PURDUE 40-27.

Akron over Army* by 3

We will be watching closely to see how the Black Knights respond here after some most critical comments about their heart and desire from Stan Brock leading into their bye week. It could mean a special effort here, but alas it will take more than effort because the talent is so minimal. AKRON 23-20.

Maryland* over Eastern Michigan by 16

An absolutely classic flat spot for the Terrapins here, off of that explosive win over California, and with the conference opener at Clemson on deck. But the oddsmakers will have to be extremely generous before we dare trust the punchless Eagles. MARYLAND 33-17.

Miami F. over Texas A&M* by 1

Two weeks should be enough for Aggie QB Stephen McGee?s shoulder to heal, but the big weakness Mike Sherman sees right now is team speed, and that was a big factor at Miami LY, when the Hurricanes rolled to a 24-0 halftime lead in an eventual 34-17 win. MIAMI F. 20-19.

East Carolina over N. C. State* by 10

A significant regional revenge motive for the Pirates, who were upended 34-20 on their own field last year despite a +58 in total offense, makes this more than just another non-conference affair. And the Wolfpack offense has not scored a touchdown in its last 13 quarters vs. lined opponents. Should be plenty of seats in Raleigh available for Pirate fans. EAST CAROLINA 26-16.

Missouri* over Buffalo by 31

With a bye week on deck, and with Chase Daniel a very serious Heisman candidate, the Tigers are allowed to attack much longer than the Bulls can cope with. And with a big M.A.C. showdown at Central Michigan next, they might even be inclined to back off themselves and save some energy. MISSOURI 52-21.

Fresno State over Toledo* by 4

From everything that we read leading up to last week?s game vs. Wisconsin, the Bulldogs were almost making that one too important in the grand scheme. And when a team loses a home game that they were aiming for with both barrels, it can often mean a tough time finding energy on the road. FRESNO STATE 28-24.

Texas* over Rice by 32

Rice did not get any favors from Hurricane Ike, which postponed the Texas/Arkansas game early enough in the week for the Longhorns to already begin prepping for this one. It was 58-14 last year, when they lacked any special focus. TEXAS 52-20.

Utah State* over Idaho by 3

Somebody has to win, don?t they? Actually in this kind of matchup, we usually find it being more lost by mistakes than won by someone taking charge. Which is why we are rarely involved. UTAH STATE 24-21.

T.C.U. over S.M.U.* by 24

Gary Patterson will surely want to show June Jones who is boss of the Metro area. But with a bigger challenge at Oklahoma coming up, once he has enough margin for ego purposes, the game grinds to a halt. T.C.U. 38-14.

Florida over Tennessee* by 7

Rarely has a Phil Fulmer team ever been as out-classed as his Vols were in that 59-20 blowout in The Swamp last year, when Florida commanded a 2-1 edge in total offense. The blaring of Rocky Top changes some of that, but has the talent gap simply grown that wide? FLORIDA 27-20.

U.N.L.V.* over Iowa State by 2

Road trips to Utah and Arizona State may have saddled the Rebels with a couple of defeats, but it also means that they are stepping way down in class here, and the door is open for a badly needed win against an unimposing Cyclone defensive front (which was statistically aided by the wind and rain last week). U.N.L.V. 24-22.

Stanford* over San Jose State by 6

The talent gap between these programs is nowhere near what the scoreboard (37-0) and the box score (506-163 in total offense) showed for the Cardinal last year. And the kind of confidence the Spartans picked up in that rout of San Diego State makes a big difference in terms of believing that they can get this done. STANFORD 27-21.

U.T.E.P.* over New Mexico State by 6

Aggies showed the rust at Nebraska that could be expected in their first outing of the season. Now the Miners have two weeks to prepare in this revenge affair, studying films of how they allowed 434 passing yards in last year?s 29-24 loss. But the X?s are so limited than even the extra prep time can?t help much. U.T.E.P. 41-35.

Arizona over U.C.L.A.* by 1

It is serious gut-check time already for the Bruins. It is one thing to struggle on offense with all of those injuries in the skill positions, but how do we adjust for the lack of heart that a usually solid defense showed once things got out of hand in Provo? ARIZONA 24-23.

Ohio State* over Troy by 18

Buckeyes bring the natural focus of spitting out the trouncing that they took on the west coast, which served our BEST BET purposes well. But when we look back at what Troy did at Middle Tennessee, and then view subsequent performances by the Blue Raiders, could this underdog be better than what the oddsmakers are calling for? OHIO STATE 34-16.

Arkansas State* over Middle Tennessee by 10

We can not see anything in these rosters or coaching staff?s that tell us that the 24-7 home win by Middle Tennessee last yea is the true level of these programs. So does that leave a pendulum that is ready to swing the other way in a correction mode? ARKANSAS STATE 31-21.

Tulane* over UL-Monroe by 6

Kudos to the Green Wave for overcoming all of the distractions to play a pair of solid games against bowl-bound teams. So now time to actually break through and win one outright as they step down in class. TULANE 27-21.

Minnesota* over Florida Atlantic by 7

We are never supposed to be in a hurry to look to a team like these Gophers when in a chalk role, but note that it took every bit of a +7 turnover advantage for the Owls to escape with that 42-39 home win last year. When that kind of advantage can only lead to that small of a home margin, there is something that we can work with. MINNESOTA 34-27.

South Florida over Florida Internatio\nal* by 28

A chance for Jim Leavitt to showcase his program in what is to be a prime recruiting area if he is going to take the Bulls to the next level. SO. FLORIDA 35-7.

Louisiana* over Kent by 3

The Cajuns showed some missing toughness in battling back against Illinois, instead of the usual early submission on the road. That could carry a little momentum into their first home game. LOUISIANA 27-24.



NFL

BEST BET

New Orleans over *Denver by 14

An exciting, if not lucky, home victory this past week against San Diego puts undefeated Denver in the limelight. It also makes the Broncos overrated and inflated from a pointspread perspective. Jay Cutler and wide receiver Brandon Marshall are becoming major forces. But New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees already is a force with more weapons at his disposal despite the loss of star wideout Marques Colston. Yes, Cutler can attack a vulnerable Saints secondary. Cutler, though, still is learning. He?s prone to mistakes. His spectacular play so far has hidden a number of Denver deficiencies, including a weak run defense, a secondary that isn?t as good as perceived and a mediocre ground attack that lacks a true featured back. The Saints go three deep at running back with Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Deuce McAllister. Their offensive line protects Brees as well as any quarterback in the league. New Orleans has that balanced offense. Denver does not, relying too much on Cutler. This isn?t going to be overlooked by the Saints? sharp boss, Sean Payton. The Broncos haven?t been good when cast in the favorite?s role, going 6-15 (28 percent) ATS in their last 21. Denver is off two AFC West matchups and is at another division foe, Kansas City, next week. This is a letdown spot for Denver off its dramatic 39-38 win versus the Chargers when Cutler threw a late touchdown pass followed by a surprising game-winning two-point conversion. That was a draining game, both physically and mentally. The Saints are a much improved club that right now is under the radar screen, especially following last week?s road loss against a rested Redskins squad. Cutler is going to have to carry the Broncos. Weather shouldn?t hinder the warm-weather Saints being so early in the fall. The Saints are the better team and they?re getting points. That says it all. NEW ORLEANS 34-20.

***BEST BET

*Washington over Arizona by 18

The Cardinals are 2-0 for the first time in 17 years. This is a team that has had the grand total of one winning season during the past 23 years. Anyone firmly sold on them? Some improvement does appear to be there. They?ve won the time of possession battle in both of their games by a combined margin of nearly 18 minutes. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are putting up huge receiving numbers with ancient Kurt Warner slinging to them. But let?s not swallow the Kool-Aid just yet. Keep in mind the teams Arizona has played ? San Francisco and Miami. This is clearly a step up for the Cardinals. The Redskins play in the NFC?s toughest division. They are well-coached on defense. Their offense showed signs of picking up new coach Jim Zorn?s intricate West Coast style. Jason Campbell finally had a solid performance. Clinton Portis remains an upper level running back. Wide receiver Santana Moss is back being a game-breaker. The Cardinals are not a good tackling team and they lack Washington?s balance on offense. Edgerrin James is on the downside of his distinguished career being pushed by rookie Tim Hightower. Tight end Leonard Pope still hasn?t become an integral part of Arizona?s passing attack. The Cardinals are really just about Fitzgerald and Boldin. Warner still has a strong arm to get them the ball. However, he?s a statue in the pocket. Pressure Warner and the Cardinals are in trouble, especially when playing on the road with excessive crowd noise. This could be where defensive end Jason Taylor factors in. It?s a tough situational spot for the Cardinals, too. They are traveling across three time zones. Making it worse for them is this is an early start time. It?s the first time this season the Cardinals have to leave the West Coast. The Cardinals haven?t traveled well lately, failing to cover in four of their last six road contests. WASHINGTON 31-13.

**PREFERRED

*Buffalo over Oakland by 18

We had Buffalo as preferred winner last week when the Bills were underdogs to Jacksonville. We?re coming back on Buffalo this week as a favorite. Normally we?d prefer the Bills in their accustomed ?dog role. But this is a horrendous spot for Oakland and the Bills are playing well. Buffalo is off to its best start in five years, having posted victories against playoff teams Seattle and Jacksonville. The Bills? offense is coming together. The return of star offensive left tackle Jason Peters is a big key. So is the growing confidence of second-year quarterback Trent Edwards. The Bills are once again outstanding on special teams. Their defense is healthy and more physical that last year. The Raiders have yet to establish any threat of a passing game with JaMarcus Russell under center. There are real character concerns in Oakland. Lane Kiffin is in a race with St. Louis? Scott Linehan to see who is the first head coach fired. The Raiders are on an off-surface here, being a grass team. They may not have running back Justin Fargas (check status) and are off back-to-back division games. It?s also a very difficult travel spot for the Raiders, going from the West Coast to the East Coast while drawing an unfavorable early start time. BUFFALO 28-10.

Carolina over *Minnesota by 6

These are two tough physical, grind-it-out clubs. Both are strong defensively and on special teams. The Vikings are home on carpet and already in must-win mode. Yet our strong preference is Carolina. The Panthers hold key edges at quarterback, coaching and at the flanks with star wide receiver Steve Smith now back after serving a two-game suspension. Minnesota is a disappointed club having lost opening week to Green Bay and then blowing a 15-0 lead at home last Sunday to Indianapolis. Tarvaris Jackson has yet to show he has the passing skills to be a successful NFL starting quarterback. The Vikings are Adrian Peterson and that?s it. The Panthers defense is rejuvenated. They?ll key on Peterson. No coach is better at covering the spread as an underdog than the Panthers? John Fox at 31-15-1 (67 percent). Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme has proven his right elbow is back to where it was pre-reconstructive surgery. He was able to engineer enough points to beat two good defenses, San Diego and Chicago, despite not having Smith. Now he finally has him. The Panthers are 23-5-1 (82 percent) ATS when getting points with Delhomme taking snaps. Carolina went 3-0 SU and ATS playing in domes last year. CAROLINA 16-10.

*CLOSE CALLS

*Atlanta over Kansas City by 1

Getting out of Kansas City could be the best thing for the Chiefs. Herm Edwards is one step ahead of the posse. The Chiefs have lost 11 games in a row. Already they have tried three quarterbacks. Their offense is slow and can?t make plays. Michael Turner could have a big game running against Kansas City. Turner better come up big, because the Falcons are a one-dimensional running team with rookie Matt Ryan at quarterback. The Chiefs are terrible, but they often catch inflated points on the road. That?s a factor why they have covered seven of their past nine away contests. ATLANTA 17-16.

*Tennessee over Houston by 2

Believing the Texans were markedly improved, we made the Texans one of our four best bets during opening week against Pittsburgh. Wrong. Houston may indeed be improved, but until it proves it can perform well on the road and effectively run the ball, the Texans won?t have our endorsement. The Texans come into this matchup rested, though, having not played last week because of hurricane-related damage to their stadium. Kerry Collins gives the Titans more of a downfield threat than injured Vince Young, but we?re hesitant to lay too many points with such a historically turnover-prone quarterback. TENNESSEE 26-24.

*New York Giants over Cincinnati by 9

Maybe the Giants are this good. But are the Bengals really this bad, scoring one touchdown in two games. Carson Palmer has thrown 52 times and has 233 yards to show for it with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Cincinnati is five-for-26 on third-down conversions. The Bengals weren?t sharp in preseason. It?s carried into the season. The Giants have a bye next week, while the Bengals host division foe Cleveland. However, the Bengals have to be focused looking at 0-3 with a defeat. Their defense isn?t as bad as some may think. Palmer and his starting wide receivers are too good to stay in this slump. NY GIANTS 26-17.

*New England over Miami by 9

The record-setting scoring Patriots of 2007 are dead. It is slugfest time now for New England minus Tom Brady. Bill Belichick is 6-13 SU when Brady hasn?t started for him. If the Dolphins can finally get their ground game untracked they could keep it close with heady Chad Pennington at quarterback compared to Matt Cassel, making his second start since high school. The Patriots have won 21 straight regular-season games. Miami, by contrast, has lost 20 of its past 21 games. The Dolphins have failed to cover in 16 of their last 19 division contests. But no longer can the Patriots get away with taking any opponent lightly. NEW ENGLAND 23-14.

*Chicago over Tampa Bay by 7

Matt Forte just could be the real deal. No, he?s not a franchise back. But he?s solid and that?s all the Bears need playing at home for the first time with their defense back in tip top shape. Chicago quietly has covered its past five games. The Bears welcome an old friend back, Brian Griese. Apparently Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden prefers Griese instead of gutsy but over-the-hill Jeff Garcia. Griese still is rounding into shape from last year?s knee injury and getting in sync with his receivers. The Bears may be without kick return star Devin Hester (ribs), while the Buccaneers may be missing their best wideout, Joey Galloway (check status). CHICAGO 16-9.

*Seattle over St. Louis by 7

Scott Linehan is dead man walking. His Rams have surrendered 963 yards and 79 points in two games, while managing just one touchdown despite having Steven Jackson and Torry Holt. St. Louis hasn?t won at Qwest Field since 2004. Seattle is in need of a win, too, having been drilled at Buffalo and upset at home by San Francisco. But as bad as St. Louis is, the Seahawks are just too banged-up on offense for a ringing recommendation. Seattle is down its three best wideouts, forced to start street free agents, Logan Payne and Courtney Taylor, versus San Francisco. There are running back and offensive line injuries, also. Seattle is 0-7 ATS in its past seven at Qwest. SEATTLE 24-17.

*San Francisco over Detroit by 1

Detroit?s fragile chemistry could boil over having lost its first two games, while surrendering 82 points and 921 yards in losses to Atlanta and Green Bay at home. The Lions have lost 49 of their last 57 road matchups. Mike Martz?s 49ers? offense started to come around last week in an upset overtime victory against Seattle. The Lions have no lost love for their former offensive coordinator. The 49ers may be drained following their big win versus the Seahawks. Their best defensive player, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, suffered a leg injury. His status needs to be monitored. SAN FRANCISCO 24-23.

*Philadelphia over Pittsburgh by 1

This isn?t the great spot for either club. This is Philadelphia?s only non-conference game during the first 10 weeks. The Eagles also are off a Monday night game versus division rival Dallas. Donovan McNabb masks the Eagles? mediocre group of wide receivers. Pittsburgh is in a division sandwich situation. The Steelers are off a game at Cleveland, the team many expected to win the AFC North before the season, and host division foe Baltimore the following week. The Steelers remain tough to run on. The Eagles, though, are strictly a pass-first club. PHILADELPHIA 21-20.

*Indianapolis over Jacksonville by 2

After throwing only three interceptions last season, Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard already has been picked off that many times this season. The Jaguars can?t get their ground game going because both of their starting guards have been lost for the season and center Brad Meester isn?t expected to return until at least Game 4 because of a biceps injury. The Colts are 19-3 under Tony Dungy during September. Yet Indy can?t be backed with confidence either because of their offensive line injury list, which includes center Jeff Saturday and left tackle Tony Ugoh. The Colts also may be without star safety Bob Sanders (ankle). INDIANAPOLIS 21-19.

*Baltimore over Cleveland by 4

The Browns go on the road for the first time facing a Ravens squad they have lost four of the past five times to in Baltimore. The Ravens could get back their top run-stuffer tackle Kelly Gregg (check status). The Ravens are trying to get by on a fierce defense and good special teams with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco just trying to stay out of trouble. He succeeded opening week against the Bengals throwing no interceptions and not getting sacked. The Ravens may open their offense up more knowing the Browns are slow on defense and thin in the secondary with safety Sean Jones out with a knee injury. CLEVELAND 24-20.

*Green Bay over Dallas by 3

The Packers draw the Cowboys at an opportune time. Dallas is traveling on a short week following its Monday night matchup versus the Eagles and will be on grass, an off-surface for the Cowboys. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers played well against the Cowboys last year when he was called on to replace Brett Favre. He has looked sharp through two games this season going 42-for-60 for 506 yards, while accounting for five touchdowns with no interceptions. The last time the Cowboys visited Lambeau Field, back in 2004 under Bill Parcells, the Packers buried them, 41-20. GREEN BAY 27-24.

*San Diego over New York Jets by 6 (Monday)

This should be a good barometer just how much the Jets have improved with their new free agents and Brett Favre. New York?s run defense looks much improved so far. The Chargers are sure to be in a bad mood after losing a controversial game last week to the Broncos. San Diego has won and covered seven of its last eight home games. The Chargers probably aren?t going to reach the 42 sacks they got last year with star pass rusher Shawne Merriman out. Obviously a lot depends on the physical condition of LaDainian Tomlinson, who has yet to dominate like he has in the past. SAN DIEGO 26-20.


OVER/UNDER

** OVER: Houston at Tennessee ? Tennessee rookie running back Chris Johnson is looking good and the Titans can attack Houston?s weak secondary better with Kerry Collins.

UNDER: Tampa Bay at Chicago ? Game-managers instead of downfield passers at quarterback and two stingy defenses spell under.

UNDER: Carolina at Minnesota ? Two conservative offenses going against tough defenses.


HISTORICAL TRENDS

Kansas City at Atlanta ? The Chiefs smashed the Falcons, 56-10, at home in 2006.

Oakland at Buffalo ? The Raiders defeated the Bills, 38-17, at home in ?05.

Houston at Tennessee ? Tennessee swept Houston last season, winning 38-36 on the road and 28-20 at home.

Cincinnati at New York Giants ? The Bengals nipped the Giants, 23-22, at home in 2004.

Arizona at Washington ? The Redskins edged the Cardinals, 21-19, at home last year.

Miami at New England ? New England swept Miami last year, winning 49-28 on the road and 28-7 at home.

Tampa Bay at Chicago ? Chicago beat Tampa Bay, 34-31, at home in 2006.

Carolina at Minnesota ? The Vikings trimmed the Panthers, 16-13, at home in 2006.

St. Louis at Seattle ? Seattle beat St. Louis 33-6 at home and 24-19 on the road last season. The Seahawks are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS versus the Rams.

Detroit at San Francisco ? The 49ers defeated the Lions, 19-13, on the road in 2006.

New Orleans at Denver ? Denver defeated New Orleans, 34-13, on the road in 2004.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia ? The Steelers buried the Eagles, 27-3, at home in 2004.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis ? The Colts knocked off the Jaguars 29-7 on the road and 28-25 at home last season.

Cleveland at Baltimore ? The Browns swept the Ravens last season, winning 27-13 at home and 33-30 at Baltimore. The Ravens are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS hosting Cleveland.

Dallas at Green Bay ? The Cowboys shaded the Packers, 37-27, at home last season.

New York Jets at San Diego ? The Chargers defeated the Jets, 31-26, on the road in 2005.

 

[the duke]

CKO

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

11* MINNESOTA over Florida Atlantic
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19

In last week?s pointspread push against Michigan State, the Owls got a huge break with the weather. Anearlyconstant rain put a blanket on the Spartan passing game and kept the MSU offense from scoring a lot more. FAUwill have no such ally this week against rejuvenated, offensively-potent, revenge-minded Minnesota, whichplays indoors at the Metrodome. The Owls allowed Spartan RB Ringer to ramble for 282 yards, and the FAUdefense ranks 105th in the country. Minnesota has shown dramatic improvement on defense this season undernew d.c. Ted Roof, and there really was never any question about the offense with dual-threat QB Adam Weber,star WR Eric Decker, and a vet OL springing a variety of solid RBs. The injury to TB Duane Bennett (4.1 ypc LY)isn?t a crushing blow to Gophers, as California true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (turned down Nebraska andWashington) ran for 114 yards & 3 scores last week vs. Montana St. and fellow frosh Shady Salamon (5 ypc) are ready to roll.

10 RUTGERS at *Navy
Late Score Forecast:
RUTGERS 35 - *Navy 20

Few teams (other than Notre Dame) have succeeded vs. Navy?s option offense as well as Rutgers under GregSchiano, who is 5-1 SU and vs. the spread vs. the Midshipmen, with all wins by six points or more. And Navyhas struggled more than expected to far this season following the departure of HC Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech, as the Middie backfield has been plagued by key injuries (now FB Eric Kettani has a strained hamstring; check status) and the veteran secondary has failed to solidify vs. the pass. All of that is good news for Rutgers, which is 0-2 after losses to ascending Fresno and North Carolina. With Ray Rice gone to the NFL, the Scarlet Knights are counting more on their deep and speedy cast of WRs TY. And Schiano still has enough veteran talent on defense to disrupt the Navy option.

10 VANDERBILT over *Ole Miss
Late Score Forecast:
VANDERBILT 27 - *Ole Miss 22

Granted, Ole Miss appears an improved side under new HC Houston Nutt. But SEC sources also alerting us to pay attention to developments at Vandy, where HC Bobby Johnson?s consistent recruiting efforts have closed the ?talent gap? that long hindered Dores vs. conference opposition, helping the Nashville bunch to its first 3-0 start since 1984. Vandy now owns the sort of SEC-caliber playmakers it has long lacked, and Johnson has spiced up attack accordingly by featuring electric DBs D.J. Moore & Jamie Graham on offensive end (both effective on Wake Forest-like ?orbit sweeps?). Dores (least-penalized team in SEC; QB Nickson no picks in first 3 games) not beating themselves these days, either. Trust series and team trends (Vandy 6-1 vs. line last 7 meetings; Dores 12-4 as road dog since ?05) to continue.

10 MIAMI-OHIO over *Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
MIAMI-OHIO 20 - *Cincinnati 19

Long-time Midwest scouts rather surprised Cincy is still a double-digit favorite in 134th meeting for the Victory Bell, considering journeyman jr. QB Pike (3 ints. in only 31 career attempts) and/or soph D. Jones (Notre Dame transfer) are piloting the no-huddle attack for injured starter Grutza, who was in a groove until suffering broken ankle vs. Oklahoma. We doubt either QB ready to pick up the slack vs. a fired-up Miami-Ohio defense aching to atone for its embarrassingly-poor effort in 47-10 blowout vs. Bearcats year ago. Miami?s terrific trio of LBs (all 3 are Butkus Award candidates!) well-equipped to contain Cincy?s ground attack, as well as effectively blitz stationary 6-6 Pike, who?ll show hesitation in pocket sans established rapport with his WRs. On other side, RedHawks battle-tested jr. QB Raudabaugh (793 YP) now able to work play-action with vet WRs, thanks to productive soph RB Merriweather (210 YR so far; he missed ?07 game with injury) commanding attention from Bearcat defense that?s ?not playing physical enough,? according to disgruntled HC Kelly. Miami solid 6-1 last 7 as a road dog.

10 *ATLANTA over Kansas City
Late Score Forecast:
*ATLANTA 28 - Kansas City 13
(Sunday, September 21)

Atlanta has turned the page and appears set to make some real progress this season, and one key test will come in this game against the Chiefs. The Falcon running game is much more lively with free agent RB Michael Turner and third year pro Jerious Norwood combining for 373 YR and 6.6 ypc in the first two games. Although Atlanta rookie QB Matt Ryan made some mistakes last week under the pressure of the Buc defense (4 sacks, threw 2 ints. at Tampa), returning home against a team that ranked 28th against the run last season and yielded 300 YR last week against the Raiders, he figures to play more like he did in home-opening win against Detroit. Injury to K.C. QBs Croyle and Huard might leave them with No. 3 Thigpen, and Chiefs 0-9 SU last 9 visiting non-AFC West foes.

TOTALS: UNDER (42) in the Cincy-N.Y. Giants game?Bengals (8.5 ppg) can?t get offense going; G-Men (9-3 ?under? last 12 at home) prefer to smother opponents with defense...OVER (44?) in the Detroit-San Francisco game?Lions? defense resembling a sieve; Detroit has gone ?over? 14 of last 18 away!

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): CENTRAL FLORIDA (+11) at Boston College?UCF has covered 5 of last 6 as dog and owns stalwart defense to contain BC offense trying to adjust to life without Matt Ryan...IOWA (+1) at Pittsburgh?Pitt?s LeSean McCoy isn?t sneaking up on teams this season (3.8 ypc TY after 4.8 as a true frosh). Hawkeye ?D? ranks 1st in scoring and allows just 3 ypc...AIR FORCE (+7?) vs. Utah?A trip to Colorado Springs not easy to prepare for, and sr. QB Shea Smith executing much like Shaun Carney did the last 4 years...TENNESSEE (+7?) vs. Florida?Certainly respect Florida QB Tebow, but revenge-minded Vols aren?t anybody?s patsy at jam-packed Neyland Stadium...DENVER (-5?) vs. New Orleans?Uplifting win against Chargers and emergence of WR Eddie Royal to complement Brandon Marshall make Broncos worth a look facing Saint team still dealing with defensive problems.

 

[the duke]

Marc Lawrence

Playbook Best Bets

3*s: C. Michigan, NO Saints, Titans over
4*s: Georgia, Hou Texans, SF 49ers over
5*s: BC, Car Panthers, Redskins over

BEST BET
Disappointing start for both programs with BC dropping its ACC opener to Georgia Tech while UCF fell in overtime to bitter intrastate rival SouthFlorida. We?re not at all enamored with OT losers (see last week?s I?M A LOSER article for more on this)? especially when the defeated squad was outgained by a 504-226 margin! Since each team has had an extra week to prepare, they?ll probably spend most of the time trying to revive a pair of moribund offenses. A quick check of the ATS archives tells us the Eagles are the more likely choice to succeed. Boston College stands 16-6 with rest when taking on .500 > non-conference foes and Jeff Jagodzinski?s bunch has covered 15 of 19 opportunities when winning SU as chalk versus .500 > opponents. Central Florida?s George O?Leary does not fare well when taking to the highway off a loss, compiling a weak 6-16 ATS record (0-4 playing out of conference). THIS JUST IN:Game Three Bowlers off a SU favorite loss (like BC) are an outstanding 16-3-1 ATS versus a foe that was a dog of more than 8 points in its last game. With UCF leaving Orlando for the fi rst time this season and Boston College facing lowly Rhode Island the following week, we?ll look to fly like an eagle with the more-focused Beantown Boys.BOSTON COLLEGE over C Florida by 21

BEST BET
We?ll learn a lot about Joe Tiller and his Purdue team here. After ripping through Oregon for 300 fi rst quarter yards and a 20-3 lead, the Boilermaker offense inexplicably fi red blanks the rest of the way against the Ducks ? and before you could say ?Donald?, Oregon had caught up and forced overtime, eventually winning 32-26. That devastating loss puts the Boilers smack in the middle of our classic ?Home Favorite Letdown Off An Overtime Loss? scenario (see last week?s I?M A LOSER article). Central Michigan may not get much attention but the Chippewas have averaged 9 wins per season over the last two campaigns and went bowling both years. They also owe Purdue for a pair of SU defeats in 2007, a 23-point embarrassment on this fi eld in Game Three and a narrow 3-point loss in the Motor City Bowl. In a battle of top-notch quarterbacks, we expect CMU?s Dan LeFevour to outduel the Boilers? Curtis Painter and walk way with a statement-making win.Central Michigan over PURDUE by 1

BEST BET
You?ve got to hand it to Mark Richt. Last week?s SEC opener against South Carolina looked like an after-hours parking lot brawl outside a redneck bar but somehow the Georgia coach guided his Dawgs to a crucial 14-7 win over the Gamecocks. Now comes the part of the schedule where Richt shines: he?s 32-2 SU versus non-conference foes ? 27-0 during the regular season ? plus he?s 26-4 SU and 19-11 ATS away from Athens. It doesn?t also doesn?t hurt that Preseason No. 1 teams are 26-2 SU and 18-9 ATS in Game Fours. Since Arizona State?s jackrabbit 8-0 SU start last year, the Sun Devils have cooled considerably, going just 4-4 SU and 1-6 ATS (shocked last week in OT by UNLV, 23-20, as 25-point favorites). We can sweeten the deal by telling you home teams off an overtime loss were just 24-41-3 ATS entering this season when taking on a foe off a SU win.The best of this week?s SMART BOX confi rms our choice ? Dawgs rule in the desert tonight.Georgia over ARIZONA ST by 17

BEST BET
Thanks to Ike the Texans will tackle the Titans with the benefi t of an extra wink of rest. And if you are winless in the NFL, that?s a nice handicapping combination. That?s confi rmed by the fact that teams in this league that have yet to win a game are 32-19-1 ATS when taking points with the benefi t of an extra week to prepare. More important, Houston needs this game like blood given Tennessee?s 2-0 start to the season. Jeff Fisher wears a label as a good dog. When laying points against winless teams he is just 2-6 ATS in his NFL career, including 1-6 as a single-digit favorite.Titans drop to 1-7 ATS as September chalk against avenging division foes here today. Texans get back in the mix of things today.Houston over TENNESSEE by 7

BEST BET
Intent on making more than a point, the man on a mission stamped himself with a stirring two-point conversion to steal last week?s game away from San Diego. Mike Shanahan?s job this week will be to keep his team at the same level they were during the Charger game. That may be a problem considering the Broncos are in the middle of a season opening division sandwich. To that extent they are 0-8 ATS in this role (division games before and after with a non-division game in the middle). They are also just 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Saints will gladly comply, sporting a 7-0 ATS mark as road dogs of more than 3 points off a loss when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS victory. With New Orleans boss Sean Payton 6-1 ATS in his NFL career as a dog against .500 or better opposition, look for venue to turn into Mile Sigh today.New Orleans over DENVER by 7

BEST BET
The Vikings were many a ?Wise Guys? choice to win the NFC North Division while making their way to the playoffs. A strengthened defense with a powerful running game made for solid reasoning. Missing from the equation, though, is a quarterback. When they go down this week it?s safe to say Tarvaris Jackson will be carrying a clipboard sooner than later. The Jackson experiment aside, the Panthers have capitalized on the return of QB Jake Delhomme, vaulting to a 2-0 start sans the services of his best WR Steven Smith. Like the Terminator, Smith?s back this week and these Cats are lovin? it. The most mind-boggling stat of all is at work here as Carolina is 20-1 ATS as a non-division road dog against .550 or less opposition in their franchise history, including 20 wins in a row! With Game Three winless favorites of less than 5 points just 3-19-2 ATS since 1990, you?d be wise to join the guys who realize Carolina is a live Road Cat!

Carolina over MINNESOTA by 10

 

[the duke]

THE SPORTS MEMO

ROB VENO

CAROLINA AT MINNESOTA -3

Recommendation: Minnesota
With home games at such a premium in the NFL, expect the Vikings to place extreme emphasis on this one. The Vikes are in the second of back-to-back home games after allowing Indianapolis to steal one on this field last week. Minnesota is also in early desperation mode after a 0-2 start while 2-0 Carolina is on a cloud nine high after pulling off their second consecutive come-from-behind fourth quarter victory. With a pair of solid situationals pointing toward the host, expect the fundamentals to work for them as well. Carolina is predicated on running the football and Minnesota boasts one of the toughest run defenses in the league. Quarterback pressure has also been a forte of the Vikings the first couple of weeks and I believe they?ll overwhelm the good but not great Panthers front. Even with the return of WR Steve Smith, this does not appear to be a good fit for the Carolina passing game, which likely needs a week to get in a rhythm. This raucous venue isn?t the place for that to happen. Situational and fundamental indicators are all strongly in the Vikings favor here and this price provides great value


JARED KLEI

ST. LOUIS +10 AT SEATTLE

Recommendation: Rams
There is no way to sugarcoat it, the St. Louis Rams have been terrible through the first two games of the season. They?ve given up 966 yards of total offense and have been outscored 79-16. Now while all that looks terrible on paper, it must be noted that they played two very good teams in Philadelphia and the New York Giants. This week it gets easier for the Rams as they open divisional play against the extremely banged up Seattle Seahawks. I can honestly say that I don?t know who Matt Hasselbeck will be throwing to this weekend. Seattle lost both wide receivers, Logan Payne and Seneca Wallace, to injuries against the 49ers. The Seahawks are already without pass catchers Bobby Engram,Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Ben Obomanu. This week they are left with unproven Courtney Taylor, Billy McMullen (signed earlier this week) and Michael Bumpus, who was signed off the practice squad last Saturday. The Rams certainly aren?t going to be in the playoff hunt let alone vying for a .500 record but not only is Seattle banged up, they are an aging team and one that is nowhere near as good as this line would indicate. Take the Rams


ERIN RYNNING

DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO -4

Recommendation: 49ers
The Lions take a trip to the West Coast as they challenge the 49ers Sunday afternoon. This is a tale of two teams going in different directions. The Lions are brutal from the front office to the field, and I don?t say this lightly as they might not win one game this season. The Lions were embarrassed in week one by an equally dreadful Atlanta team, while self-destructing once again last week against Green Bay. Last week?s loss had to hurt team morale further after battling back. Keep in mind this team was fighting among themselves on the sidelines against Atlanta. Meanwhile, the 49ers played much better than their opening week loss to Arizona would indicate (five turnovers). Last week, the ball didn?t bounce their way early as they were down 14-0 against Seattle early on but rebounded with a huge overtime win. Keep in mind, the 49ers? new offensive coordinator Mike Martz knows the Detroit personnel and is smarter than anyone on the Detroit sideline. Finally, the caliber of these two in terms of defense and pure tackling ability is wide, and it strongly favors San Francisco. Looking to take advantage of a reasonable line here with the home favorite.


FAIRWAY JAY

OAKLAND AT BUFFALO O/U 37

Recommendation: Under
A year ago the Bills started 0-2 and suffered numerous injuries. Buffalo returns
home this week 2-0 following an impressive 20-16 road win at Jacksonville - an outright underdog winner for us. The Bills? defense has held each of their opening two opponents to just 3.8 and 4.3 yards-per-play while allowing only 10 and 16 points, respectively. Buffalo will face a stronger running attack this week, and the Raiders are a one-dimensional offense that piled up 300 yards rushing last week in their win at Kansas City. While that was a dominating display, it must be noted that QB JaMarcus Russell was just 6-of-17 for 55 yards passing. He?s been shaky in the early going, and traveling to Buffalo is one of the toughest places to play as a visiting quarterback, especially one that has never made the trip and lacks experience. The Bills? defense can load the box to slow what the Raiders do best, and while Buffalo?s running game has averaged just 3.3 ypr in two games, they?ll rely on Marshawn Lynch and a short passing game facing the Raiders? solid secondary. Few big plays in this contest as defense, running games and the clock will be on display.

TEDDY COVERS

MARSHALL AT SOUTHERN MISS -9.5

Recommendation: Southern Miss
You?re not going to find a less hyped 3-0 ATS team than Southern Miss, way off the radar screen for most of the betting marketplace. Most preseason guides predicted a down season for the Golden Eagles. They haven?t been on TV, and they were beat up pretty good in their lone test against a BCS powerhouse, although they came back late to cover at Auburn. Make no mistake about it, however - this team is exceeding expectations and should be able to do so again here. In their lone home game, Southern Miss hung 51 points and 633 yards of offense on Louisiana-Lafayette. Redshirt frosh QB Austin Davis has been remarkably impressive in his first season as the starter. Junior running back Damion Fletcher will be playing on Sundays in a year or two. Frosh wide receiver DeAndre Brown will be the best playmaker on the field here. Marshall lost by nine at home to Southern Miss last year. The Thundering Herd lost 42-7 on their last trip to Hattiesburg. In four seasons under Mark Snyder, Marshall is a truly woeful 2-17 SU on the road, losing 14 of those games by double-digit margins,with a 4-13 ATS mark as a road underdog . That?s a trend worth betting!


BRENT CROW

EAST CAROLINA -7.5 AT NC STATE

Recommendation: East Carolina
After winning with East Carolina in its first two games, I passed last week as they nipped Tulane, 28-24. That was an obvious letdown spot for them and I didn?t expect them to play their best. This week they should have plenty of motivation for their in-state rivals from Raleigh. The Pirates have long hated NC State, and this is yet another chance to knock off a BCS school. Adding to the motivation for the Pirates is a 34-20 home loss to the Wolfpack last year. There is no doubt that East Carolina has the better team this year, and its defense should shut down a woeful NC State offense that has scored just three points in two games against I-A competition. State scored a touchdown on an interception return last week on the first play of the game, yet still lost to Clemson 27-9 and was shut out in their opener by South Carolina, 34-0. The East Carolina defense has allowed just 275 yards per game in their three wins over Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Tulane. The offense, led by Patrick Pinkney, has yet to really explode, but they have been solid and will face a young NC State defense that has allowed 4.75 ypc thus far. Pirates win this one easily.


MARTY OTTO

NAVY AT RUTGERS O/U 58

Recommendation: Over
Rutgers? quarterback Mike Teel has looked terrible through two games but there isn?t much doubt that he?ll have a huge day here against Navy. The Midshipmen allowed opponents to connect at a 70% clip in the pass game last year and have already been torched twice this season by Ball State and Duke for over 640 yards and seven TDs through the air. Teel has lost his composure against two up and coming defenses but he still moved the ball. The difference this week is that they will finally turn the yardage into points. Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood will have a field day against this secondary. But Navy will have its fare share of success offensively as well. We have seen the Rutgers defense give up 160 yards and three scores to Ryan Matthews in week one and UNC had no trouble ripping off 4.1 yards per carry as a team. This is a tough system to prepare for and stop and I have no faith in the Scarlet Knights to keep Shun White, Kaipo, or Jarrod Bryant in check. After all, Navy has scored at least 23 points in 18 straight games. Over is the play this week.


TIM TRUSHEL

VIRGINIA TECH AT NORTH CAROLINA -1.5

Recommendation: North Carolina
We picked North Carolina to win the ACC Championship and part of the reasoning behind that selection was the fact that within their division, the powerhouse teams Virginia Tech and Miami-Florida, were down significantly. Head coach Butch Davis has a young but talented group of players. With 18 returning starters, the benefit of playing so many true freshmen and sophomores last year, would be realized this season. Brandon Tate is as a dynamic talent as we have seen all year long. Not only is he a solid receiver but he is the best return men in college football. Hakeem Nicks is somewhat overshadowed by Tate, but he makes for an explosive tandem. Quarterback TJ Yates is quite efficient and has a knack for making big plays. Their hard hitting defense is quick to the ball and has created turnovers regularly. Simply put this is a solid team. Virginia Tech perhaps telegraphed their intention on the season when Frank Beamer originally had decided to red-shirt quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Perhaps not convinced that the season would be a huge success,Beamer originally felt better served in playing for the future. As evidenced this is not a great Hokies team. They are skittish on offense and will not have any athletic edge on special teams. We clearly see that the better team is UNC and will lay the short price.


ED CASH

GEORGIA -6.5 AT ARIZONA STATE

Recommendation: Georgia
Georgia got a very stiff test last week in Columbia, South Carolina, surviving with a 14-7 win over the Gamecocks. This week they travel across the country to face an Arizona State team that lost at home to UNLV last week as a 24-point favorite. I am sure that the Sun Devils were probably thinking about Georgia last week, but I am not sure that is going to help them this week. The Bulldogs should be too tough and fast for the Sun Devils of the PAC-10, which went 0-4 against the Mountain West last week. Georgia faced a very physical South Carolina defense last week, but that won?t be the case in the desert. Look for Knowshon Moreno and the Georgia running game to have a big day, which will set up the passing game as well. Arizona State seems to still be a notch below the top level of college football teams as evidenced by their last three games as an underdog. They lost to Texas in last year?s Holiday Bowl, 52-34, and were beaten in the regular season by USC, 44-24 and Oregon, 35-23 and were outgained by an average of 461-358 in the three losses. Expect more of the same this week.


DONNIE BLACK

LSU AT AUBURN +3

Recommendation: Auburn
The Auburn offense in its win over Mississippi State looked about as poor as an SEC offensive unit has looked all year. Perhaps the only exception was Mississippi State as they could manage no offense scoring in the 3-2 (yes that?s right) defeat. Against MSU the Auburn offense struggled as it lost three more fumbles and committed 12 penalties for 94 yards. On the season they have committed eight turnovers, six of which are fumbles from skill position players. Yet while Auburn has struggled offensively, its defense has been positively dominant. This past weekend, the Bulldogs were held to 116 yards while going 0-for-14 on third-down conversions and 0-for-3 on fourth downs. They were forced to punt 10 times. On the season, Auburn has held the opposition to just 641 total yards of offense in three games. Auburn ranks third nationally in scoring defense (5.0), ninth in rushing defense (53.0) and 10th in total defense (213.7). They don?t miss tackles and they don?t allow extra yardage after contact. The opposition has been held to an incredible 3-of-46 on third down conversions. We expect improved play out of the offense as they eliminate the turnovers and we?ll call for the home team to win the ninth consecutive game in the series. Play the home underdog Tigers.

 

[the duke]

HQ Report Newsletter

5* FLORIDA (-7) over TENNESSEE by 18
3* BALL STATE (+4) over INDIANA
3* IOWA STATE (+3) over UNLV
3* SAN JOSE STATE (+10) over STANFORD

HQREPORT UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK
*BAYLOR (+14) over CONNECTICUT

HQREPORT TOTAL RECALL OVER / UNDER
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs PURDUE PLAY OVER

A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)
*TULSA (-10) over NEW MEXICO

 

[the duke]

Pointwise write-ups

college

LOUISVILLE 31 - Kansas State 30 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Don't like this one a bit.
The rebuilding Cards are just 7 pts from a 4-18 spread slide, & allowed at least 38
pts 7 times LY. Have turned it over 7 times in 2 games, so Cantwell & Co must
end that tendency. 'Cats have a 114-16 pt edge so far, with similar 471, 481 yds,
but they've allowed 47.5 ppg in their last 4 away games. Just too many negatives.

THURSDAY
West Virginia 37 - Colorado 27 - (8:30 - ESPN) -- Just 251 yds for Mounties in
loss to ECaro, along with a 35:91-24:19 time deficit, but White threw for 5 TDs
wk before, so not sold on WV demise (were at 41 ppg previous 32 games). No
rest for Buffs, who have FlaSt, Texas, & Kansas on deck. Came back from 21-17
deficit in 4th vs EWash, & have a decent run "D". Plenty of fireworks. WV vote.

FRIDAY
CONNECTICUT 41 - Baylor 14 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- No questioning improvement
of Bears. Check 426 RYs (10.1 ypr) vs defenseless WashSt, after ranking 113th
in running LY. Check QB Griffin with 346 total yds in that one, & solid run "D" to
date. But Donald Brown (566 RYs, & 8 TDs) is smoking, with QB Lorenzen off a
13-of-15 outing, & UConn has allowed only 98 pts in its last 9 HGs. Lay the wood.

SATURDAY
PENN STATE 45 - Temple 10 - (12:00) -- Owls are reeling. From an OT loss to
a "Hail Mary" loss in the last 2 weeks. Ouch! Well aware of the fact that they
are a dream vs the line (+87? pts last 13 games), & have allowed <17 pts in 4
of last 5 outings. But Lion spread "O" is picture perfect: 166-37 pt edge thus
far, with balanced 879 RYs & 819 PYs. And just 64 RYpg defensively. Romper!

BOSTON COLLEGE 28 - Central Florida 10 - (1:00) -- Realize that the dog is a
solid 33-17 ATS in Eagle games (+56 pts ATS in last 13), but BC is again a
defensive force. Held GaTech option to just 162 RYs (43 of which came on
winning TD, & should bottle up Knights, who just aren't the same without LY's
leading runner, Smith. Just 76 RYs vs SoFla, along with a 504-226 yd deficit.

NORTHWESTERN 27 - Ohio U 26 - (12:00) -- 'Cat "D" is up a few notches from
LY's 84th ranking vs pts, but Syracuse, Duke, & SoIllinois hardly represent
legitimate tests. Remember, they had a 144-yd deficit at Duke. Play their best
at home (6-1 ATS lately), as has OhioU, but OU covered its first 2 roadsters TY
by 10? & 21?. And check QB Jackson's 365 yds & 3 TDs in LW's tight loss.

CINCINNATI 24 - Miami-Ohio 14 - (7:30) -- Bearcats never far from the spot, as
last 4 have been decided by cumulative 5? pts ATS. Couldn't stay with Okla
(30 FDs, 592 yds), & now QB Grutza may be lost (ankle). Miami is motoring at
a mighty 82 RYpg, but QB Raudabaugh a good one. We steer clear of this one.

MISSISSIPPI 31 - Vanderbilt 30 - (12:30) -- Reb QB Snead has lived up to the
hype (6 TD throws last 2 games), & OleMiss could easily be unbeaten. Solid
run "D", & on a 5-0 ATS run, by 4, 2, 3?, 8?, & 5 pts. Have Fla up next, but
must contend with solid Vandy squad, which has covered its first 3 games by
49 pts, behind QB Nickson, RB Hawkins, & a super run "D" (<99 ypg). 'Dores.

GEORGIA TECH 20 - Mississippi State 13 - (1:00) -- Let's see. Only 6 FDs, 38
RYs, 78 PYs, & 2 pts for the Bulldogs LW, yet a 9-pt cover. Thus, MissSt has
held 6 of its last 8 foes under 15 pts. But the Jackets still clicking, overland:
278 RYs vs VaTech (QB Nesbitt 151 RYs), altho 3 key TOs killed 'em in that
tight setback. Dog is 13-2-1 in GT games, but MSt is in Arky/LSU sandwich.

BYU 48 - Wyoming 10 - (3:00) -- Coog streak now at 13. What a masterpiece
for Hall, who tied school-record with 7 TDs in 59-0 rout of decent Ucla. He now
has 1,095 PYs. Solid run "D", & have held 8 of last 12 foes <18 pts. 'Boys on
0-10-1 ATS run, averaging just 12 FDpg last 2 tilts. Moore & Crum not enuff.

AUBURN 20 - Lsu 17 - (7:45) -- Defense! Still plenty of kinks in Eagles' spread
"O". Seven TOs last 2 wks, with QB Todd still a work in progress. But that "D"
which has allowed only 84, 37, & 38 RYs, staked 'em to LW's 3-2 escape vs
MissSt. Bengals also seem impenetrable, ceding only 52 & 44 RYs, & visitor is
15-4 ATS in Lsu games, but Bayous are minus 44? pts ATS in last 12 outings.

Alabama 33 - ARKANSAS 30 - (12:30) -- Yo-yo Tide have 239, 99, & 281 RYs,
with 25-11 edge, 18-11 deficit, & 30-9 edge in FDs to date. Nothing wrong with
'Bama run "D", allowing 43 ypg. The dog is on a 25-12 ATS run in Tide games,
& they have Georgia up next. Arkies scoring, but allowing 37.5 ppg in last 8
lined tilts. Dick & Smith (323 PYs & 157 RYs last game) may keep it in sight.

SO MISSISSIPPI 47 - Marshall 20 - (3:30) -- Eagle RB Fletcher has run wild vs
the Herd (Wise Points), & no reason he can't continue, as SoMiss rolled up 30
FDs, 427 RYs, & 633 TYs in 1st HG (20-pt cover). Marshall is nicely balanced
(RB Marshall: 140 yds LW), but has allowed 38, 47, 35, & 51 pts in last 4 RGs.

Houston 38 - COLORADO STATE 20 - (3:30) -- Coogs nearly crawled out of a
17-pt deficit vs AF, behind Keenum, who has 13 TD passes thus far. Houston
has allowed 379 & 380 RYs last 2 outings, but Rams have run for just 71 & 95
yds this year, barely escaping SacramentoSt. Just 36 pts from 1-25 ATS run.

RUTGERS 41 - Navy 34 - (3:30) -- Middies continue to dominate overland (588
RYs for Smith), but still no "D", allowing an astounding 43.9 ppg in 12 of last
13 outings (Army). Knights have a 117-RY deficit TY, & are 122 pts behind the
spread in 9 of their last 10 regular season games, but that Mid "D" the decider.

NORTH CAROLINA 23 - Virginia Tech 16 - (3:30) -- Obvious that Butch Davis'
squad the more impressive of the 2 so far. Tars in off first road win outside
state of NC since '02, with QB Yates to Tate-Nicks tandem cause for concern.
And can't forget 4 picks vs Rutgers. Hokies have managed only 29 FDs & 490
yds in their 2 lined contests. Dog 13-4 ATS in NC contests. Scores to settle.

PITTSBURGH 20 - Iowa 13 - (12:00) -- Hawkeyes off to 3-0 start, but LW's win
over IowaSt hardly a work of art, with just 11 FDs & 1 "O" TD. Greene has run
for 10.0 & 6.0 ypr past 2 wks, but Iowa averaged only 13.8 ppg on the road LY.
Pitt can't run (240 yds vs Buff & BG), but since "D" dominates it, Panther call.

Wake Forest 24 - FLORIDA STATE 20 - (7:30) -- First line game for 'Noles, who
ranked 36th in our "Polls" column (1 vote for #24, 1 vote for #25). Quite a drop,
but they've allowed >34 pts in 4 of last 5 lined games. So 115-7 pt balanced
start taken with grain of salt. Rested Wake took OleMiss on 41-yd FG in final
0:03. QB Skinner so far: 59-of-79, that run "D" again a force. Dominated LY.

MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Notre Dame 13 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Call this along lines of
year ago, when Hoyer & Ringer had their way with Irish (Wise Points). So note
Ringer in off career-high 282 RYs, with 7 TDs for the season. NoDame got the
win vs Michigan, but 6 Wolve TOs were key. Not much doing, overland (3.2
ypr this yr), with Clausen's 4 INTs nearly offsetting his 5 TDs. Methodical win.

OREGON 42 - Boise State 20 - (3:30) -- Unbeaten Ducks at 323 RYpg, having
piled up 1,687 yds in their 3 outings. Averaging 42.6 ppg in 15 of their last 16
games. Check 26 FDs, 503 yds in OT win at Purdue. But may have lost QB
Roper (ankle). Just 16 FDs & 340 yds for Broncos vs WMich, despite Johnson's
7.5 ypr. Averaging 43 ppg last 12 games, but the Ducks are "money" at home.

AIR FORCE 34 - Utah 33 - (4:00) -- Utes have a 100-31 pt edge last 2 wks, &
have allowed only 11, 15, & 8 FDs. Epitome of balance: 458 RYs, 428 PYs last
2, behind QB Johnson's leadership (missed LY's match). And check a 64
RYpg "D". Will need it, as they run smack into Falcon running machine (1,074
yds so far). AF 5-0 ATS home LY by 52 pts, & on a 9-1 spread run. Barnburner!

TULSA 51 - New Mexico 34 - (7:00) -- Love 'Cane "O" (45 & 51 pts, along with
601 & 555 yds): QB Johnson 9 TDs, 750 PYs, but check allowing 864 yds to
the likes of UAB & NoTex. Lobos' Ferguson has run for 135 & 158 yds last 2
wks, & visitor is 28-15 in NMex tilts, but note 37-0, 28-10 losses in last 2 RGs.

INDIANA 31- Ball State 30 - (7:00) -- This could be a classic. Cards off to 3-0
start, with finely balanced attack, behind RB Lewis & QB Davis, who has 9 TD
passes so far, & who blitzed Indy LY (Wise Points). Ditto Indy, with RB Thigpen,
& QB Lewis, who also had his way in their '07 meeting. Should go to the wire.

PURDUE 49 - Central Michigan 30 - (12:00) -- Boilers caught in Oregon/NoDame
sandwich here, but no looking past Chips who nailed 'em for 48 pts in '07 bowl
meeting. OT loss to Ducks hurt, but balanced attack behind Painter & Sheets
(180 RYs vs OU) should move it vs a Central team which has allowed 52, 45,
70, 51, & 56 pts in last 5 non-MAC RGs. LeFevour a prize, but no rushing "O".

Akron 38 - ARMY 17 - (1:00 - ESPNC) -- Have to go back to '06 season to find
last time Zips were a RF (35-20 loss to Toledo). Their "D" is scary, & check QB
Jacquemain's 4 INTs in loss to BallSt. But Cadets allowing 39.3 ppg in last 7
outings, losing 6 of those 7 by 166 pts. A 63-17 deficit to NewHamp & Temple.

MARYLAND 40 - Eastern Michigan 17 - (1:00) -- Well, Terps got off 14-pt schneid
in shocker vs Cal, holding the Bears (391 RYs previous wk), to just 38 RYs.
Are in Cal/Clemson sandwich, but Eagles have been blasted for 52, 39, 45, 42,
& 41 pts in last 5 lined games. Trailed Toledo 41-7 in 3rd LW. More of same.

Miami-Florida 17 - TEXAS A&M 16 - (7:00) -- Both had LW off. Ags still can't
run: 255-133 & 216-92 deficits thus far. Their win over NewMex was a direct
result of 4 takeaways. The host is 24-16 ATS in A&M games but note losing
their last HG by 22 pts ATS. 'Cane overland game was also exposed (1.6 ypr
vs Florida), altho solid run "D". But averaging just 7.8 ppg in last 4 lined tilts.

East Carolina 30 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 10 - (7:00) -- Only TD scored by
Wolfpack in 1-pt cover vs Clemson came on an INT return on game's first play.
Ouch! So 3 pts over the final 59:53. Check a 136-27 pt deficit thus far. Evans
lit it up vs Pirates LY, but can't see repeat. ECU needed 24-yd Pinkney TD
pass (26-of-83 this yr) in final 1:41 to beat Tulane, so no looking past anyone.

MISSOURI 63 - Buffalo 13 - (2:00) -- Loved 26-pt cover with the irrepressible
Tigers, who've averaged 42.5 ppg over last 17 outings. Daniel: another 4 TD
passes in rout of Nevada. Check 549, 592, & 651 yds this yr. Upticking Bulls
beat Temple on a 35-yd Willy "Hail Mary" pass. He was 29-of-41, & has now
thrown for 8 TDs. Impressive, but not about to buck 14-3 spread run of Tigers!

Fresno State 38 - TOLEDO 20 - (8:10) -- Bulldogs let us down by a pt in tight
loss to Wisconsin, missing 3 FGs. Outstatted Badgers, & covered previous 2
games by 36 pts. Rockets: 3 TD passes from Opelt, & 168 RYs from Collins in
rout of EMich. But note 21 pts off TOs. Despite Ucla on deck for the Bulldogs.

TEXAS 55 - Rice 17 - (7:00) -- Check our Wise Points. Right, total Steer series
domination. No reason not to continue, as the 'Horns have scored 59, 52, 52,
& 42 pts in their last 4 SU wins, & McCoy has opened the year with a 44-of-58
showing. Just 122 RYs vs Utep may be cause for concern, but Owls allowing
42.2 ppg in last 14 lined affairs. Despite talents of Clement, Dillard, & Casey.

UTAH STATE 37 - Idaho 30 - (4:00) -- Chance for Ags to take out frustrations, as
they've suffered thru 66-24 & 58-10 losses the past 2 wks. Are now on a 2-19
SU slide. Vandals match it with 1-12 SU run, altho they did total 455 yds in loss
to WMich, with Enderle to Williams good for 191 yds. We don't get near this.

Tcu 51 - SMU 14 - (8:00) -- Jones finding going a bit rougher than at Hawaii. His
minions snuck under 36? pt spot with only score vs TxTech coming in final
3:29. Mitchell: 5 INTs. Ponies have now allowed 43.4 ppg in last 9 lined games.
Total Frog domination vs Stanford LW, despite narrow cover. Tcu has a 73-29
FD edge thus far, allowing only 56, 3, & 71 RYs. Even with Oklahoma up next.

Florida 24 - TENNESSEE 22 - (3:30 - CBS) -- Nice bouncebacker for Vols in
rout of Uab, following Ucla loss. Perfect balance (443 RYs, 471 PYs) behind
QB Crompton & RB Foster. And check allowing only 68.5 RYpg. Dog was a
brilliant 43-20 ATS in Gator games, but worm has turned, with chalk 6-0 in last
6 regular season affairs. Just 17 FDs & 89 RYs vs Miami. Classic SEC war!

Georgia 31 - ARIZONA STATE 20 - (8:00 - ABC) -- First of 4 killers for Devils,
who are in off blowing 20-10 lead in 4th vs Unlv, as 24-pt chalks. Carpenter
has thrown for 975 yds for State, but virtually non-existent overland game. The
'Dawgs managed but a single offensive TD in SCaro escape, with a pair of key
takeaways, & a 1.1 ypr "D" vs 'Cocks. Simply a matter of backing better team.

Iowa State 27 - UNLV 17 - (9:00) -- Rebels sky-high off tying ArizSt in final 0:18,
& winning in OT as 24-pt dogs, so run smack into the "Blind Hog" theory. The
fact of the matter is that Vegas' bell has been rung for 32.7 ppg over its last 24
contests. Cyclones couldn't do much vs Iowa "D", but are on a 6-1 spread run,
covering those 6 by 80 pts. Rely mainly on QB Arnaud, but 3 INTs LW. Cycs.

STANFORD 30 - San Jose State 20 - (9:00) -- Loved Spartan rout of SDiegoSt
(19-pt cover), as Reed hit his first 12 passes, while tossing 3 TDs. Allowed no
offensive TDs, & rolled up a 293-6 RY edge. But SJSt has a 270-82 pt deficit
on the road since LY, & can't ignore series history (Wise Points) which is just
overwhelmingly in Cardinal column, & Stanford did cover its first HG by 10?.

UTEP 38 - New Mexico State 23 - (9:00) -- Well, Miners have allowed 42 & 42
pts so far, as well as 43.5 ppg in their last 11 games. But outstatted Texas (122
RYs "D"). Ags in off allowing 330 RYs to Nebraska's previously 119 RYpg "O".
Holbrook has tossed for >1,000 yds last 2 in series, & he will need it all in this.

UCLA 31 - Arizona 22 - (3:00) -- Bounceback time for 1 of these 2, who were
both humiliated LW. Check just 29 & 9 RYs for the Bruins so far (0.8 ypr), with
QB Craft shouldering the load. 'Cats turned it over 5 times at NewMex, with a
221-67 RY deficit. The host team is on a 24-8 spread run in Uclan games, as
well as scoring 31.3 ppg in last 35 games. 'Cat "D": 32.2 ppg "D" last 6 RGs.

ADDED GAMES
OHIO STATE 37 - Troy 20 ARKANSAS ST 42 - Middle Tenn St 30
TULANE 28 - La-Monroe 13 Florida Atlantic 27 - MINNESOTA 26
So Florida 45 - FLA INTERN'L 12 Kent State 20 - LA-LAFAYETTE 16



NFL

MINNESOTA 23 - Carolina 22 - (1:00) -- Vikes must be in shock, letting a 15-0
lead over the Colts completely melt in the final 16? minutes, losing in the last
0:03. Have run for 187 & 180 so far, with Peterson at 263 RYs, but just 1 TD
pass from Jackson. Panthers true heartstoppers thus far, taking SanDiego on
final play, & overcoming a 17-3 deficit vs Chicago, despite only 12 FDs & 216
yds. They covered their first RG by 10?, & the dog is 54-28 ATS when they
take the field. Not only that, but Carolina is 14-6 ATS as a Sept dog, & 22-12
ATS away vs <.500 opponents. Minny 1-7 ATS as fav vs foes off SU/ATS win.

SEATTLE 33 - St Louis 13 - (4:05) -- Well, we went with the Seahawks to come
storming back with a blowout win vs the Niners LW, & it not only didn't pan out,
but an outright loss to boot. Hasselbeck is now just 35-of-76 with just a single
TD, & 3 picks. And check 5 Seattle TOs to date, altho Jones did motor for 127
yds vs SF. But if Holmgren's troops are to shake the cobwebs, there is no
better spot, as the Rams are the pits. Check a 79-16 pt deficit, a 53-21 FD
deficit, a 967-367 yd deficit, along with a 3-14 ATS run. Rams are 9-17 ATS in
division play, while Seattle is 11-0 ATS in Sept vs a foe off a pair of SU losses.

Detroit 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 26 - (4:05) -- We don't get near this one, despite
the Niners breaking out of their doldrums, with LW's OT upset of the Seahawks.
Just 11 ppg in 12 of previous 14 outings for SanFran, before those 33 posted in
Seattle. Still on a 4-12 SU slide, with 2 of the 4 wins coming in OT. The Lions
are just as inept, allowing an amazing 36.8 ppg in their last 8 outings, & have a
nice 441-111 RY deficit, as well as a 1-9 SU run. Detroit is 14-1 ATS off a pair
of DD SU/ATS losses, while the Niners are 5-11 ATS off a pulling a SU upset.

DENVER 34 - New Orleans 24 - (4:05) -- Broncos stole one from us LW with
controversial win over the Chargers. Led 21-3, trailed 38-31, & won 39-38 in
the final 0:24, with TD & successful 2-pt try. Cutler has 6 TD passes already,
& the Broncos have a 58-35 FD advantage (34 vs the Chargers). Note the
host covering 8 of Denver's last 9 games. The Saints came from a 438-352 yd
edge, to a 455-250 deficit, & throw in a 295-156 RY deficit for the season. And
they lost 4 of their last 5 dog roles by 10, 25, 31, & 13 pts. Broncs keep it up.

PHILADELPHIA 23 - Pittsburgh 19 - (4:15) -- It didn't take the Steelers long to
come from impressive home wipeout of the Texans, to a squeaking road win
over the Browns, despite another 105 RYs from Parker (243 TY), & a 12-of-19
showing from Roethlisberger (25-of-33 TY). That one pushed the home edge
in Pittsburgh games to 13-5 ATS. Just the opposite with the Eagles, as the
host is just 2-10 ATS of late, but they covered their home opener by 25 pts. Pitt
is 15-3 ATS before a Monday Nighter, but Tomlin is 0-6 ATS away off a SU win.

INDIANAPOLIS 17 - Jacksonville 16 - (4:15) -- Colts avoided their first 0-2 start
in a decade with comeback win over the Vikings. Trailed 15-0 with 1:30 left in
the 3rd, winning 18-15. Still no running game for Indy, which has RY deficits of
183-53 & 180-25 thus far. That's 363-78, folks. Jags obviously not the same
with hurting offensive line, but they did come from a 137-33 RY deficit vs the
Titans, to a slight 98-75 edge vs the Bills. Garrard: 9 sacks already, with his 3
INTs matching his output for the entire '07 season. Jags 11-3 ATS on division
road, while Colts are only 15-23 ATS as Sept hosts, & 13-26 as division HFs.

Cleveland 20 - BALTIMORE 16 - (4:15) -- Browns are still winless, despite high
pre-season expectations. They improved dramatically, defensively, in tight loss
to the Steelers, on the heels of Cowboy embarrassment, in which they were on
the wrong end of 30-11 FD & 488-205 yd differentials. But still not clicking as
they did LY. So note just 8, 14, 20, 10, & 6 pts in their last 5 games (11.6 ppg).
Colts' impressive opening week rout of the Bengals has lost a bit of luster in
light of Cincy's obvious decline. And Baltimore is still on a 4-13-1 ATS slide.
Browns 5-0 ATS in series, & an 18-9 Sept dog. We'll call the mild upset here.

Dallas 33 - GREEN BAY 24 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Packers just keep on doing it, &
now have won 20-of-24 SU, prevailing LW, with no less than 3 TDs in the final
3:34 at Detroit (a pair of TDs on INTs thrown by Lions' Kitna). Rodgers has
filled in for Favre, more than adequately, as he is 18-of-22 & 24-of-38 with 4 TD
passes, & nary a pick. Check 3 TD tosses in the first 23 minutes vs Detroit.
The 'Boys are in off their Monday Nighter with the Eagles, but their opening
week destruction of the Browns serves fair warning as to their dedication off
LY's playoff flop. Dallas is 27-12 as a RF of <7? pts, & 7-2 ATS vs GreenBay.

MONDAY
SAN DIEGO 31 - New York Jets 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Rematch of '04 Wild Card
meeting. Not many would have imagined the Chargers getting off to an 0-2 start
(SU & ATS), but that's the case, with a pair of incredible losses (on final play, & in
last 0:24) their bane. Nothing wrong with that "O", behind 6 TD passes from
Rivers (377 PYs LW), & Sproles looking super (66-yd TD run, 103-yd KO return
LW). Chance to bust out before the nation, & should do it. Are 12-4 ATS off a SU
loss, 13-6 ATS as a HF, & 13-6 as Monday hosts. Jets are 5-12 ATS on the nondivision
road, & 1-7 ATS in Sept off being upset. Chargers, with plenty to spare.

ATLANTA 24 - Kansas City 16 - (1:00) -- A pair of teams in division sandwiches
here, but circumstances hardly bring that into play. A major drop in Falc output
in just a week, with Ryan going from 9-of-13 to 13-of-33 with 2 INTs in loss to
the Bucs. And check Turner from 220 RYs to just 42. But they did cover their
1st HG by 16 pts. Chiefs: Thigpen for Huard (head) for Croyle (shoulder), but
it makes little difference (13-of-33). And Johnson in off 1.8 ypr effort. Now
eleven straight losses. KC is 5-14 ATS on the NFL road, but 6-0 ATS on the
Sept road off loss vs foe off loss. Visitor 10-2 ATS in Chief contests. Forget it.

BUFFALO 31 - Oakland 17 - (1:00) -- Was it really 18 years ago, when these 2
met for the AFC title? Raiders seem to have gotten what they expected when
they drafted McFadden. Ran for 164 yds (7.8 ypr) at KC, in leading Oakland to
300-55 RY edge. And check 150 RYs in opener (41-14 loss to Denver). So
that Bill "D" can't look past this squad. Buffalo is on a 17-8 spread run, covering
their 1st HG by 21? pts (Seattle), & sits atop the AFC East, along with the
Patriots. Just 3.8 ypr for Lynch at J'Ville, but QB Edwards a splendid 20-of-25
(39-of-55 for the season). Bills 6-1 ATS favs off a SU win over non-division foe.

TENNESSEE 26 - Houston 13 - (1:00) -- First of 3 division games for the Texans,
who had LW's game with the Ravens postponed. Didn't do much in opening
day slaughter at Pittsburgh, with a 183-75 RY deficit. Thus, Houston now has
a 31-17 ppg deficit in its last 8 RGs. The Titans continue to impress, no matter
the QB, as Collins was an efficient 14-of-21 (1 TD, no INTs), as he filled in for
Young LW. As we've stated many times, Tennessee is a streak team, & is just
15 pts from a 3-13 ATS slide, but 2-0 ATS this yr, with covers of 10 & 18 pts.
Houston is 1-5 ATS on the division road, & 0-4 vs the Titans. Good enuff for us.

NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Cincinnati 13 - (1:00) -- Hardly seems the spread can
be too high here, as NY is off to a superb start, posting a combined 50-24 FD
edge in its routs of 'Skins & Rams. Now on an 8-0 ATS run. Eli LW: 20-of-29
for 260 yds & 3 TDs. And check Jacobs' 209 RYs to date. Bengals falling
apart. A 406-153 RY deficit, with Palmer just 26-of-52 for only 223 PYs in 2
games, leading Cincy to a total of 17 pts, along with 19 FDs. Now less than 20
pts in 6 of last 7 outings. Ugh! The dog is on 9-2 ATS run in Bengal games (all
upsets). But not here. NY is 10-0 ATS home off a DD cover & scoring 35+ pts.

WASHINGTON 24 - Arizona 23 - (1:00) -- 'Skins got their act together, following
opening week smothering by the Giants. Came from 11 FDs & 209 yds vs NY,
to 25 FDs & 455 yds vs the Saints. And check overcoming a 24-15 deficit after
3 (2 TDs in 2:21 span of 4th). Campbell: 24-of-36 for 321 yds, with Portis &
Moss contributing. But the Rams got another 3 TDs from Warner (all to Boldin),
who is now 38-of-54 for 361 yds & 4 TDs (no INTs). 'Zona on an 18-8 ATS run,
at 32.1 ppg in its last 10 outings, & check its 445-236 yd edge vs the Dolphins.
'Skins just 5-14 ATS HFs, & 8-16 ATS in the 2nd of 2 HGs. We'll take the FG.

NEW ENGLAND 27 - Miami 9 - (1:00) -- A year ago, the Pats were a pure terror,
yet won by just 28-7 here vs the lowly Fish. So, we'll call this somewhere near
that final, as NewEngland is on a mission, with its superior "D" winning the day
so far, allowing only 14 & 12 FDs to the Jets & Chiefs, so why not continue vs
the Dolphs, who've dropped 20-of-21 SU? Cassel is a very decent 29-of-41 in
filling in for Brady thus far (1/0), but Maroney is ailing a bit (shoulder). Miami is
pitiful, with just 60.5 RYpg, & now Henne for Pennington. Pats 16-2 ATS off a
SU win vs division foe off back-to-back losses. Dolphs 3-12 ATS division RDs.

CHICAGO 19 - Tampa Bay 13 - (1:00) -- First HG for the Bears, who've been a
pleasant surprise in the early going, despite blowing a 17-3 lead to the Panthers
LW. Routed the Colts on opening week, behind Forte (215 RYs so far), & QB
Orton, who has yet to toss an INT. Chicago is 4-0-1 ATS lately, with those 4
covers by a combined 74? pts. Griese for Garcia in Tampa's win over the
Falcons, & check Graham with 207 RYs thus far (8.3 ypr). But the Bay lost its
last 3 RGs by a combined 25? pts ATS, & is an anemic 3-20 ATS on the nondivision
road, while Chicago is 18-9 ATS as a non-division HF. We lay the FG.

 

[the duke]

******* Platinum Sheet

NFL

KC +4
AZ +3
Carolina +3
Stl +10.5
Denver -4.5

KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA
The Chiefs look pretty bad this season, don?t they? Only 18 points in two games? A loss at home to the lowly Raiders? Well, there?s no proof at this point that Atlanta is any better. After all, the Falcons ?big? win in Week 1 came against a franchise that has lost nine of its L10 games. I?ve seen this type of situation far too many times, where the so called experts will denounce a team only to see them come back with an unexpected strong effort. That is what I?m looking for in Week 3 from Kansas City, and I?m going to take the points to prove it. HC Herm Edwards? team is backed by one of the better Super Situations that ******* tracks. It is very successful and very consistent. It reads as follows: Play On - Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a road loss. (27-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*). This angle is also 17-4 over the last 2+ seasons. When everything seems to be going against a team, I?ve learned that?s when they most often cover.Play: Kansas City +4

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON
You?ll see from my article on Page 7 regarding unbeaten teams in Week 3 that road teams that are 2-0 and scoring over 25 PPG cover the spread at an 11-6 clip. Arizona fits into that angle this week as the Cardinals have put up 27.0 PPG in the first two wins. They are averaging a scintillating 9.6 yards per pass attempt and Kurt Warner has looked incredibly confident under center. Here they are the underdog at a Washington team that was being scorned for its lack of offense in Week 1. I?ll rarely pass up a chance to take a better offensive team as the underdog.Arizona will be looking for its 7th straight September ATS win in this game. Washington meanwhile, is known for its slow starts, particularly at home (8-21 ATS in home September games). I tend to only take underdogs that I believe can win games outright in the NFL. I?ll take emerging Arizona here.Play: Arizona +3

CAROLINA at MINNESOTA
In another one of the unique angles that a road unbeaten team qualifiesfor in the article on Page 7, Carolina is backed going to Minnesota. The angle indicates that road teams that are 2-0 and allowing more than 15.0 PPG are 14-7 ATS in Week 3. Why might this be? My educated guess is that the oddsmaker jury is still out on this team, since their early stats aren?t that eye catching. This is particularly the case with a team like Carolina, who needed 4th quarter comebacks in both of the first two games to win.However, I know how much confidence means in the NFL, and wins like that bolster momentum early in the season. Speaking of momentum and confidence, a team with NONE at this point is Minnesota. After being everyone?s preseason darling, the Vikings have opened with back-to-back losses, the latest one a painful 18-15 loss to the Colts in which they failed to reach the end zone and gave up a 15-0 lead. Still, they are favored over a 2-0 team. Carolina has always been one of the best road dogs in football (20-5 ATS under Fox), I?ll take my chances with the Panthers again here.Play: Carolina +3

ST LOUIS at SEATTLE
I?m dumbfounded why those making the pointspreads for the NFL still continue to treat Seattle as one of the elite teams in the league. This team has been AWFUL on defense. In fact, the Seahawks have allowed 33.4 PPG in their last five overall, dating back to last season. The last time I checked, teams that allow this many points aren?t worthy of double-digit pointspreads. This line is purely a matter of perception. EVERYONE is down on the Rams at this point, and for good reason,they are struggling on both sides of the ball.However, in games 1 & 2, they played solid clubs, two of the best in the NFC in fact. It is Seattle?s defense that gives them a chance to rebound: Play Against - Home favorites (SEATTLE) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game. (51-22 since 1983.) (69.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 2*). Don?t be surprised to see St. Louis look much better offensively this week, and put the Rams? starters in your fantasy football lineup while you?re at it.Play: St Louis +10.5

NEW ORLEANS at DENVER
Turning back to the article on Page 7, the final system for this week,indicating to play on home teams averaging more than 33 PPG thus far, backs both Denver and Green Bay. Unfortunately, the line for the Packers indicating Cowboys game was not out as of presstime, but surely as the likely underdog, host Green Bay has to be considered. In any case, Denver was underdog, still available for me as a Best Bet. Quite frankly, New Orleans is being given far too much credit on this line. The Saints? defense, which has allowed 28.8 PPG in its L5 and at least 20 points in each game of that stretch,cannot possibly hope to contain Denver?s red-hot offense. QB Jay Cutler is off to a phenomenal start, and riding the momentum of a gift-wrapped but huge victory over San Diego. Mile High is an intimidating place to play for unfamiliar opponents, especially when the hosts are playing well.Play: Denver -4.5



NCAA

LSU -3
Pitt -1
Oregon -12
Tex A&M +3.5
Tenn +7

LSU at AUBURN
The line for the Auburn-LSU game started as a pick em? and quickly shot up to LSU by a field goal, with sharp players obviously realizing the early mistake. Auburn won a game 3-2 last week against Mississippi State, and if you did miss it, the game was as awful as the final score indicates. The Tigers may have won, but I can?t see anything that happened to make me believe that they are ready for LSU this week, even on the home turf. Typically, this is a tight game, year in and year out, and it probably will be again this year. However, LSU is far more balanced than Auburn and has more playmakers on offense. Backed by this fabulous money line Super Situation, I?ll play LSU: Play On - A road team vs. the money line (LSU) - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. (28-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.3%, +31 units. Rating = 7*) Play: LSU -3

IOWA at PITTSBURGH
Iowa has put up good numbers in the early going while getting off to a 3-0 start. So far the Hawkeyes are outscoring opponents by a 35.0-2.7 average margin.However, this is typical for them as they tend to start the season fast against weak foes at home then stumble later on versus stronger opponents and on the road. This trend illustrates that: Ferentz is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game as the coach of IOWA. The average score was IOWA 9.7, OPPONENT 25.2 - (Rating = 1*). In those road games, they are being outscored by over 15 PPG. This week?s game at Pittsburgh will easily be their toughest test to date. While off to a somewhat slow start, the Panthers boast high hopes for ?08 as well as one of the best running backs in the country in LeSean McCoy. Iowa will have its hands full. I?ll back the hosts.Play: Pittsburgh -1

BOISE ST at OREGON
Despite putting up 503 yards of offense last week, Oregon was fortunate to escape Purdue with its unblemished record in place.Anyone who read the Best Bets column was prepared for the Boilermakers to put up a fight though. The reaction to that game and the lack of early explosiveness from Boise State is what has me back on the Ducks this time around. First off, when Oregon?s offense gets rolling, it is difficult to beat: Bellotti is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of OREGON. Secondly, this line sets up well for the Ducks: Bellotti is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of OREGON. The Broncos didn?t look like their normal selves last week at home against Bowling Green and if not for three key turnovers, the Falcons might have walked off the blue turf with a win. I expect Oregon to parlay the momentum of the OT win at Purdue with another strong effort.Play: Oregon -12

MIAMI at TEXAS A&M
Despite the fact that Miami had its way with Texas A&M last yearat the Orange Bowl, there are two nice ******* Super Situations that have me backing HC Mike Sherman?s team here as the home underdog: 1) Play On - Home underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (<=100 RY/game). (43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*). This is kind of a contrarian angle in concept, and the interesting thing about it is that A&M should be a better rushing team than it has been. 2) Play On - Home underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - off a road win, in the first half of the season. (50-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +28 units. Rating = 3*). A&M?s win at New Mexico was huge for no other reason than to get off the mat. Miami gained 140 yards of offense at Florida and is simply not ready at thispoint to be a road favorite in one of the toughest enviroments in college football,Kyle Field.Play: Texas A&M +3.5

FLORIDA at TENNESSEE
My esteemed colleague (and brother) Jeff alerted me a couple of weeks ago that home underdogs that go onto win six or more games in a season cover pointspreads at a rate of 64%. That would mean that home dogs that win five or fewer games are less than a 40% proposition. If you think about that conceptually, it basically means to never play home dogs that you don?t think are capable of being in a bowl game at the end of the season. If you stick to this,you?ll only find yourself on the side of competent home dogs, not mutts who are much more likely to get blown out as hosts. Well,you have to figure that Tennessee is going to be a bowl eligible club. Right off the bat that gives us a nearly 2/3 chance of covering the touchdown pointspread here. Add to that the motivation from a 59-20 shellacking by Florida a year ago, and this trend: 1) Meyer is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off 2 consecutive home wins as the coach of FLORIDA. This might be the toughest game on Florida?s schedule this year. Don?t expect an easy win.Play: Tennessee +7

 

[the duke]

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

BYU That was a real warning shot fired by BYU a week ago vs. UCLA, but we didn?t need any extra convincing to give the Cougars a solid recommendation at Provo for their Saturday battle vs. struggling Wyoming. BYU has owned this series since losing to HC Joe Glenn?s first Cowboy team in 2003, winning and covering the last 4 meetings, all by double-digit margins. And the Cougs have been reliable as home chalk lately, too, covering 9 of their last 12 in that role. Meanwhile, Wyo continues on an extended pointspread slide, standing 0-10-1 vs. the number its last 11 on the board, and 2-15-1 its last 18 against the spread.

HOUSTON There are several ?go against? situations in college football, and Colorado State certainly seems one of those stragglers. The Rams have been laboring lately, especially vs. the line at home, covering just 4 of their last 12 at Fort Collins, and are in tough again Saturday afternoon when potent Houston comes calling. And since 2003, the Rams have covered only 1 of 5 as a home dog, and overall stand a subpar 19-30 vs. the number their last 49 on the board. As for the Cougars, they?ve capitalized on most of their recent chances as road chalk, covering 5 of their last 7 in that role.

SAN JOSE STATE About this time each season, we want to begin paying special attention to a couple of weekly calculations highlighted in our Systems Spotlight feature, those being Pointspread Streaks and ?AFS? (Away from Spread). And each of those identify San Jose State as a team to watch as the Spartans make the short trip up the Bayshore Freeway for their annual battle with nearby Stanford Saturday night. San Jose could be in the early stages of an extending pointspread uptick, covering its first 2 games on the board this season, and the Spartans have recorded a noteworthy +11.50 ?AFS? mark their last two games. Meanwhile, the Cardinal has long underachieved vs. the number at home, dropping 14 of its last 21 vs. the line on the Farm since mid ?04.

ARIZONA Last week?s disappointing loss at New Mexico might be a temporary blip on the Arizona radar screen, as the Wildcats look to get back to their winning ways Saturday at the Rose Bowl vs. shellshocked UCLA. Remember, UA had covered 6 straight before its slip-up vs. the Lobos. And if the Cats are getting any points this wwek, they?ll be a featured recommendation under HC Mike Stoops in the College Coach as Underdog system (thanks to their 16-7-1 spread mark their last 24 as the ?short?). As for the reeling Bruins, note their poor ?20.00 ?AFS? mark the last two games after that shellacking absorbed vs. BYU.

N.Y. GIANTS It?s about time we start showing a bit of respect to the world champs! After all, the New York Giants haven?t failed to cover a pointspread since early last December, covering 8 in a row since. Taking it back a bit further, the G-Men are now 10-1 vs. the number their last 11 on the board, and 16-4 their last 20 against the line. So, why not recommend them Sunday at the Meadowlands vs. struggling Cincinnati? For the Bengals, it?s been a nightmarish beginning to the campaign,failing to cover their first 2 out of the chute, and their spread mark is a poor 4-11 their last 15 against the number dating to early last season.

N.O.-DENVER ?OVER? There?s no secret about the ?totals? patterns of New Orleans and Denver lately. They?ve both been going ?over? a lot, which figures to happen again in Sunday?s encounter at Invesco Field. As for the Saints, they?re ?over? 15 of their last 21 overall, while the Broncos are ?over? 18 of their last 23. Denver is also ?over? 13-5 its last 18 as host.

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

WEST VIRGINIA at COLORADO (Thursday, September 18)?WVU had been good visiting chalk for Rodriguez (9-3-1 last 3 years), but Stewart failed his first chance in role miserably vs.ECU. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on extended trends. BAYLOR at UCONN (Friday, September 19)?Art Briles was 5-2 as visiting dog the past three years with UH. Edsall?s extended chalk marks are good (7-2 since ?06, 10-3 since ?05, 18-7-1 since ?03).Tech edge-slight to UConn, based on extended trends.

TEMPLE at PENN STATE?Shades has had a few close calls in career vs. Owls but not the last 2 years, winning and covering by a combined 78-0. Vicious Shades 12-3 vs. line last 15 as DD chalk.But Owls off to 2-0 start vs. line TY as gradual improvement continues under Al Golden. Tech edge-slight to Shades, based on DD chalk mark.

UCF at BOSTON COLLEGE?O?Leary now 5-1 vs. line his last 6 as dog. BC on 4-9 spread run last 13 as chalk and 2-6 last 8 on board for Jags after quick break from gate last season. Tech edge-UCF, based on team trends.

OHIO at NORTHWESTERN? Cats covered opener as home chalk vs. Cuse but NU still just 3-9 laying points at Evanston since ?03. Solich has now covered last 3 as road dog after getting W in pair of those to open campaign, and 7-3 as road dog since ?06.Tech edge-Solich, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at CINCINNATI?Local rivals. Edge the past two years to Cincy with decisive wins and covers, and Cincy has also covered 4 of last 5 meetings. RedHawks, however, 7-1 vs. line last 8 as road dog. Tech edge-slight to Miami-O, team trends.

VANDY at OLE MISS?Vandy has covered 6 of last 7 in series,and Bobby Johnson covered both vs. Houston Nutt (when at Arkansas) in ?05 & ?06. Dores 11-3 as road dog since ?05, 16-7 since ?03, and 9-3 last 10 as SEC road dog. Tech edge-Vandy,based on team and series trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at GEORGIA TECH?Sly Croom 7-2-1 vs.line last 10 as road dog and 9-3-1 vs. line last 13 away.. Tech edge-slight to Sly Croom, based on team trends.

WYOMING at BYU?BYU has dominated matters since losing to Joe Glenn?s first Wyo team back in ?03. Since then, Cougs have won and covered last 4, all by DD margins. Bronco 9-3 vs. line as home chalk since ?06. Cowboys on 0-10-1 spread run dating to early ?07 and 2-15-1 vs. number last 18 on board! Tech edge-BYU, based on series and team trends.

LSU at AUBURN?Brutally close series of late, the last 4 all decided by 6 or fewer, and that 30-24 LSU win LY was decided on TD with 1 second left in game! Auburn has covered the last 3 meetings and has beaten LSU the last four times these two have tussled at Jordan-Hare. Les Miles only 2-6-1 vs. line as visitor the last two seasons. Tech edge-Auburn, especially if dog,based on team and recent series trends.

ALABAMA at ARKANSAS?Close series the last couple of years, the last 2 decided by 4 points total. Road team has covered last 3 meetings, though Arkansas has covered 4 of last 5 in series.Bama 2-7 as chalk for Nick since LY, 6-20 overall last 26 as chalk dating to late ?04. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on Bama chalk negatives.

MARSHALL at SOUTHERN MISS?Herd road woes continue,just 4-19 vs. line last 23 away from Huntington. Tech edge-USM,based on team trends.

HOUSTON at COLORADO STATE?CSU only 3-7 vs. line last 10 at Fort Collins, 1-3 as home dog since ?06. Tech edge-UH, based on recent CSU negatives.

RUTGERS at NAVY?Rutgers own edge lately, winning and covering last 3 and 6 of last 7 in series. Mids only 1-4 vs. line at Annapolis LY, 2-7 since ?06, although Navy still 16-7-1 as dog since ?03 (but 0-2 in dog role vs. Scarlet Knights that span). Schiano was 3-0 as chalk away from home LY. Tech edge-Rutgers, based on team and series trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA?Hokies have won and covered last 6 as ACC visitor. Tech edge-Beamer, based on team trends.

IOWA at PITTSBURGH?Hawkeyes just 2-8 vs. line as visitor since ?06, 4-11 vs. number as visitor since ?05. If Wannstedt chalk,note 1-8 spread mark last 9 in role. Tech edge-slight to Iowa,based on Wannstedt chalk woes.

WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA STATE?Wake has won last 2 SU vs. FSU and has covered last 4 and 8 of last 10 in series. Grobe 14- 6 as short since ?05, 22-12 since ?03. Bowden 4-8 vs. line as Tallahassee chalk since ?06, 5-11 in role since ?05. Tech edge- Wake, based on team and series trends.

NOTRE DAME at MICHIGAN STATE?Road team 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 in series. Tech edge-slight to ND, based on series trends.

BOISE STATE at OREGON?Ducks 7-1 vs. line as Autzen Stadium chalk since ?07, 14-3 as home chalk since ?05. Boise 6-10-1 vs. spread as visitor since ?05. Tech edge-Oregon, based on team trends.

UTAH at AIR FORCE?Road team has covered last 6 and 8 of last 9 in series. Force, however, 5-0 vs. line at home under Calhoun and 11-3 vs. line since he took over LY. Tech edge-slight to AFA, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO at TULSA?Golden Hurricane has won and covered big its first 2 TY and has covered last 3 since the end of ?07. Tulsa has covered first 2 as DD chalk in ?08 but was 0-5 in role LY. Lobos 3-7 vs. line last 10 on board. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on recent trends.

BALL STATE at INDIANA?Home team has covered the last 2 years in series, and Hoosiers 7?1 as home chalk since ?03 (0-1 TY,however). But Cards 13-3 vs. line last 16 away, 7-2 as visiting dog since ?06. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at PURDUE?These two getting used to one another, with their third meeting since last season. Purdue won both LY but only covered the first meeting, as Chips covered wild bowl game. Chips now 1-4 as visiting dog since LY. Tiller was 3-2 as Ross-Ade chalk LY but is only 4-9 vs. line in role since ?05. Tech edge-slight to Purdue, based on team trends.

AKRON at ARMY?Army 3-7 as dog for Stan Brock, 4-10 vs. number at West Point since ?05. Black Knights also a mere 7-17 vs. number last 24 on board. Tech edge-Akron, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at MARYLAND?EMU only 4-10 vs. linelast 14 as dog. Ralph, however, just 1-7 vs. line as home chalk since ?05, and a mere 5-12 vs. line last 17 on board. Tech edgeslight to EMU, based on Fridge negatives.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at TEXAS A&M?Shannon just 4-9 vs. line since taking over at Miami LY, although one of those covers was easy home win over A&M LY. If Canes road chalk note 1-6 mark in role since ?05. Tech edge-slight to A&M, based on extended Miami negatives.

EAST CAROLINA at NC STATE?Dog has won and covered the last two seasons. But Skip 28-12 overall vs. line at ECU since ?05.Wolfpack and just 9-23 last 32 vs. line at Raleigh. Tech edge-ECU,based on team trends.

BUFFALO at MISSOURI?Tigers have covered their last 8 vs.non-Big XII opposition. Tigers 10-2 vs. line as chalk since. Tech edge-Mizzou, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at TOLEDO?FSU 2-8 as DD chalk since ?06 (1-3 LY), 0-3 as DD road chalk since ?06. Toledo has been better at Glass Bowl lately for Amstutz, at least opposed to road mark, and home team 19-7 vs. line last 25 Rocket games on board. Tech edge-slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

RICE at TEXAS?Texas has punished Rice the last 3 years,scoring 51 or more on each occasion and covering all of those, covering 34-point-or-more lines in each. Mack has covered first 2 in ?08 laying 20+. Tech edge-Texas, based on series trends.

IDAHO at UTAH STATE?Idaho only 1-10 vs. line last 11 on board, however, and mere 6-14 last 20 as dog. Utags in rare chalk role (0-1 since ?06) and just 3-10 vs. line last 13 at Logan. Tech edge-slight to USU, based on team trends.

TCU at SMU? SMU has covered last 2 and 4 of last 5 in series,covering last 2 vs. Frogs at Gerald Ford Stadium. TCU on 6-1 spread run dating to late LY. Ponies were 0-6 vs. line at home LY.Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent team trends.

FLORIDA at TENNESSEE?Urban Meyer 3-0 SU vs. Vols, although home team has covered last 3 meetings (2 of those by Gators). Urban Meyer 1-3 as road chalk LY, however, and just 2- 8 as visiting chalk since ?05. Vols 5-1-1 vs. line at home LY, 9-4-1 as host since ?06, and 4-0 as home dog since ?06. Tech edge-Tennessee, based on extended team trends.

GEORGIA at ARIZONA STATE?Richt 12-7 vs. line last 19 away from Athens. Richt also has covered all 5 chances as nonconference visitors (most of those vs. GT) since taking over Dawgs in ?01. Note Sun Devils 0-3 as dog for Erickson LY (0-1 as home dog), and ASU 7-16 last 23 as dog dating to late ?03. Tech edge-Georgia, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at UNLV?If Rebs dog note 3-1 mark in role LY at Sam Boyd Stadium, 9-4 in role under Sanford since ?05. Tech edge-UNLV, if dog, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at STANFORD?Tree only 7-14 vs. line as host since mid ?04. Tech edge-San Jose, based on Tree home negatives.

NEW MEXICO STATE at UTEP?Mumme 1-6 vs. line on road since LY and 5-13 vs. line on road since taking over NMSU in ?05. Also just 4-13 vs. line as road dog since ?05. Price, however, just 1-8 as chalk since ?06, and no covers last 2 vs. Aggies. Tech edgeslight to NMSU, based on UTEP chalk negatives.

ARIZONA at UCLA?Stoops 16-7-1 vs. line last 24 as dog., andCats have covered 6 of last 7 on board since late ?07 (including 34-27 win over UCLA LY). Neuheisel, however, just 5-16-2 his last 23 as chalk when at U-Dub. Tech edge-Arizona, based on team trends.

TROY at OHIO STATE?Trojans 7-3 as dog since ?06 and 4-2 that span getting DDs away. Trojans also 16-8 vs. number last 24 overall on board and 11-4 vs. spread last 15 away from Movie Gallery Stadium. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at ARKANSAS STATE?Ugghhh! MTSU has owned this series, winning and covering last 5, all by DD margins! Red Wolves starting hot in ?08 but only 3-6 as chalk since ?06. Tech edge-MTSU, based on series trends.

UL-MONROE at TULANE?Weatherbie 13-6-1 vs. line as road dog since ?05, 17-8-1 as dog overall that span. Warhawks 9-2 as singledigit dog that span. Tech edge-ULM, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MINNESOTA?Ugh! Revenge for Gophers after losing 42-39 at Dolphin Stadium LY. Brewster, however, 0-4 as chalk since arriving at UM in ?07. But Howard no cover last 11 as non-conference visitor, and FAU just 4-9 as road dog since ?06. Tech edge-slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL?Cristobal was 3-1 as home dog LY and 2-0 getting DDs at FIU Stadium. Tech edge-slight to FIU, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at LOUISIANA?Golden Flashes just 2-13 vs.number last 15 on board. If Kent State favored note 2-10 mark in role since ?05. Tech edge-Louisiana, based on KSU negatives.

NFL

KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA?Falcs ?over? 7-2 last 9 as host.Herm now 7-2 vs. line away since LY after opening road cover at NE. Tech edge-slight to ?over? and Chiefs, based on ?totals? and team trends.

OAKLAND at BUFFALO?Bills now 11-3 vs. line for Dick Jauron
their last 14 at home. Tech edge-Bills, based on team trends.
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE?Titans have won and covered last 4 meetings (all competitive affairs), and the last four in series are ?over? as well. Texans ?over? 8-2-1 their last 11 on road. Although Titans now ?under? 13-6 since ?07. Tech edge-slight to ?over,? based on ?totals? trends.

CINCINNATI at NY GIANTS?Giants have covered last 8 and 10 of last 11 since a year ago. Coughlin ?under? 9-3 last 12 as host.Tech edge-Giants and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON?Cards ?over? 23-7-1 last 31 on road. Tech edge-?Over,? based on team trends.

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND??Unders? 6-3-1 last 10 in series.Pats also ?under? 7-2 last 9 on board. Tech edge-?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO?Bears ?over? 15-4 last 19 at Soldier Field. Lovie just 2-7 last 9 as home chalk. Tech edge-?Over,? based on Bears? ?totals? trends.

CAROLINA at MINNESOTA?If Carolina a dog, note 26-11-2 mark for Fox in role since late ?02. Vikes ?over? 7-2 last 9 at Metrodome. Tech edge-Carolina, especially if dog, and ?over? based on team and ?totals? trends.

ST. LOUIS at SEATTLE? Rams 5-13 vs. number since LY, 2-6 last 8 as road dog. Rams also ?under? 14-5 last 19 on road. Tech edge-Seahawks and ?under,? based on Rams and ?totals? trends.

DETROIT at SAN FRANCISCO?Lions very poor value lately on road, just 4-13 vs. points as visitor since ?06. And they?re ?over? 14-4 last 18 on road! Tech edge-slight to 49ers and ?over,? based on Lions? extended road and ?totals? trends enver ?over? 18-5 last 23 on board! Broncos also 12-5 ?over? last 17 at home. Tech edge-?Over,? based on ?totals? trends of each.

PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA?Birds ?under? 11-6-1 at Linc since ?06. Andy only 5-10 as home chalk the past two seasons but won easily in role vs. Rams in opener. Tech edge-slight to ?under,? based on ?totals? trends.

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS?Colts have won SU 5 of last 6 meetings, but only 2-3-1 vs. line in those games. Jags ?over? 10-2 last 12 on road. Tech edge-slight to ?over,? based on ?totals? trends.

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE?Cleveland has covered last 5 in series (Brownies only 3-2 SU in those games, however). Romeo ?over? 10-6 on road since ?06, however. Tech edge-slight to Brownies and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

DALLAS at GREEN BAY?Dallas won 37-27 at Texas Stadium LY. Cowboys ?over? 17-9-1 last 27 away, Pack ?over? 16-4 since ?07. Tech edge-?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.NY JETS at SAN DIEGO (Monday, September 22)?Jets 9-5 vs. line as regular-season road dog for Mangini. Tech edgeslightto Jets, based on team trends.

COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Alabama, AUBURN over Lsu@, BALL STATE over Indiana, BYU over Wyoming, CINCINNATI over Miami-Ohio@, EAST CAROLINA over NC State@, GEORGIA TECH over Mississippi State, UL-MONROE obver Tulane, MICHIGAN STATE over Notre Dame@, MISSOURI over Buffalo, OHIO STATE over Troy, OREGON over Boise State@, SOUTH FLORIDA over Florida International, TCU over Smu@, VIRGINIA TECH over North Carolina.

COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-AUBURN* over Lsu, UL-MONROE over Tulane, MEW MEXICO over Tulsa, NC State over East Carolina@, VIRGINIA TECH* over North Carolina, WAKE FOREST over Florida State, and dog in ARIZONA-UCLA game.

RIVALRY DOGS-MIAMI-OHIO over Cincinanti@, SMU over Tcu@.

POWER UNDERDOGS-ARIZONA STATE over Georgia, BOISE STATE over Oregon@, IOWA over Pitt, NEW MEXICO over Tulsa,TENNESSEE over Florida, VIRGINIA TECH* over North Carolina, WAKE FOREST over Florida State, and dog in AUBURN-LSU game.

PAINFUL MEMORY-UTAH over Air Force, TENNESSEE over Florida.

POWER REVENGE-AUBURN over Lsu@, TENNESSEE over Florida.

RESTED HOME WINNERS-COLORADO over West Virginia (Thursday,September 18), ARKANSAS over Alabama.

IMPOTENT FAVORITES-IDAHO over Utah State, SAN JOSE STATE over Stanford.

"AFS" (Away from spread last two decisions): PLUS (+)...SoCal +23.00, BYU 21.75,, MTSU 16.75, Penn St 14.75, AFA 14.25, UNLV 13.50, Cal 13.25, Minn 12.75, Tulane 12.75, Vandy 12.50, Okla 12.25,SJSU 11.50, Utah 11.50, Okla. St 11.00, UConn 10.00, Fresno 10.00,TCU 10.00, Texas 10.00; MINUS (-)...WSU -32.25, Ida 29.00, Rut 29.00, Va 24.40, Ohio St 21,50, UCLA 20.00, Haw 19.00, EMU 18.25,Wyo 17.25, Syr 15.50, USU 14.75, BGSU 13.0, Pitt 13.00, SMU 12.50

POINTSPREAD STREAKS: Wins...3-Ohio, USM, Temple, Vandy;2-AFA, Ball, Duke, Fla, GT, ISU, MTSU, Ole Miss, Mizzou, NIU, Okla,Okla St, Penn St, SJSU, SoCal, TCU, Tex, Tulane, Tulsa, UNLV, Wisc.Losses...3-Mich, Syr, UAB, WSU; 2-Aub, BGSU, CMU, EMU, Haw,Hou, Ida, Ill, Kent St, Marsh, Navy, Nev, NCS, Pitt, Rut, Stan, Utah St,UYTEP, Va, VT, Wyo.

NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-CAROLINA over Minnesota, GREEN BAY over Dallas, JACKSONVILLE over Indy, NEW ORLEANS over Denver.

FAMILIARITY-BALTIMORE over Cleveland.

NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-No plays this week.

NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-No plays this week.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation, consult Technician?s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems.

 

[ltl]

many thanks, duke... especially for the pointwise write-ups.

have a good weekend.