NEWSLETTERS DEC. 6TH - 11TH

[Senor Capper]

THE GOLD SHEET

*******KEY RELEASES*******
JACKSONVILLE by 21 over Carolina

TENNESSEE by 10 over San Diego

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the Oakland-Green Bay game

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6
*Chicago 19 - WASHINGTON 17?Everyone was shocked by the senseless
death of Pro Bowl S Sean Taylor of the Redskins. But in the dog-eat-dog world
of the NFL, you can be sure 2006 Super Bowl finalist Chicago?desperate to
return to the postseason?will try to attack the already-thin Washington
secondary with speed receivers Bernard Berrian & Devin Hester. Rex making
better decisions and being more careful with the ball since returning to action
following his benching. Redskins, only 1-6-2 vs. spread last 9 at home, too
often aiding the enemy.
(05-WASHINGTON -5' 9-7...SR: Chicago 23-21-1) TV?NFL NETWORK



SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9
***JACKSONVILLE 27 - Carolina 6?Carolina apparently better off with
44-year-old Vinny Testaverde at QB than either alternative (punchy David Carr
or rookie Matt Moore) at John Fox?s disposal. But upon closer inspection,
Panthers? only shining moments last 7 weeks have been against the QB-shy
Cardinals (mostly Tim Rattay in that game) and the offense-poor 49ers. The
resurrection of dormant Carolina pass rush last week (6 sacks) more an
indictment of S.F. OL woes than anything else. Jax QB David Garrard (only one
pick TY) mostly mistake-free and Jags still on wild card trajectory, so ground
game should roll.



(03-CAROLINA -4 24-23...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)
Dallas 31 - DETROIT 13?Amazingly, Detroit?s debilitating 4-game skid
hasn?t eliminated it from wide-open NFC wild card chase. But allowing NFLworst
50 sacks (revolving door at RT not helping; ex-Bronco George Foster has
been a huge bust) and gaining a few inches per carry in some recent outings will
scotch Lions? playoff hopes and Jon Kitna?s promise of 10 wins soon enough.
Meanwhile, Dallas? main concern is honing its edge for playoffs. And with Romo
(33 TDP) & T.O. (14 TDC) red hot, Detroit?s fading defense should oblige.
(06-Det. 39-DA. 31...De.22-19 De.25/85 Da.21/58 Da.23/32/1/307 De.28/42/1/277 De.0 Da.3)
(06-Detroit +13' 39-31...SR: Dallas 11-10)



BUFFALO 13 - Miami 9?It?s nervous time for the 0-14 1976 Tampa Bay
Bucs after what seemed to be 0-12 Miami?s best chance at a win went down the
drain vs. the lowly Jets. Will Cam Cameron be tempted to give QB Cleo Lemon
another look (how?s that for an alternative?) after Dolphins? ?O? went its third
straight game without scoring a TD with rookie John Beck (3 ints. 2 fumbles vs. Jets) at the controls? Still, Miami has often come close TY, losing by 3 points
SIX times! Punchless Buffalo bunch has cracked the 20-point barrier just twice TY.
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(06-Buf. 16-MIAMI 6...M.15-12 B.32/105 M.20/92 M.23/32/1/190 B.11/18/0/66 B.0 M.0)
(06-BUF. 21-Miami 0...B.13-12 M.28/112 B.37/100 B.13/19/0/186 M.14/33/2/100 B.2 M.0)
(07-Buffalo -2' 13-10; 06-Buffalo +6' 16-6, BUFFALO -1 21-0...SR: Miami 50-36-1)



N.Y. Giants 20 - PHILADELPHIA 17?For a while last week, Eli Manning (2
ints., 1 fumble) looked like the ?Rex of the East.? But he later led the Giants on
two, gritty, fourth-Q TD drives to beat the Bears in Chicago. Meanwhile, will the
fickle Philly fans still be calling for Feeley after his 4 ints. (now 7 in two games) last
week? Either way, would rather have the points in battle of two capable but erratic
offenses and hard-rushing but often vulnerable defenses. (What in the ?wide, wide
world of sports? has happened to the Eagles? tackling?)
(07-NYG 16-Phil. 3...16-16 P.23/114 N.27/83 N.14/26/1/129 P.15/31/0/76 N.0 P.1)
(06-Nyg 30-PHIL. 24 (OT)...N.24-23 P.30/107 N.26/86 P.27/45/0/344 N.31/43/1/318 N.0 P.1)
(06-Phil. 36-NYG 22...N.22-21 P.30/161 N.22/88 N.28/40/2/270 P.19/28/1/221 P.1 N.2)
(06-PHIL. 23-Nyg 20...P.19-17 P.31/185 N.31/151 N.16/27/1/154 P.17/31/0/138 P.0 N.0)
(07-GIA +2' 16-3; 06-Gia +3 30-24 (OT), Phil. +5' 36-22, PHI. -7 23-20 (P)...SR: NY 79-67-2)




***OVER THE TOTAL GREEN BAY 37 - Oakland 16?Early indications
are that the remarkable Brett Favre?s starting streak of 269 games (including
playoffs) is likely to continue despite last week?s right arm and left shoulder
injuries at Dallas. And CB Charles Woodson (former Raider) & DE Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila might return as well. The Raider run defense often vaporizes on
the road (198 ypg last 4!). If Ryan Grant (588 YR) gets it going in Lambeau,
Favre & WRs have a fun day. Pack 12-3-1 vs. spread last 16 games; 8-4 ?over? TY.
(03-Green Bay -5 41-7...SR: EVEN 5-5)



NEW ENGLAND 35 - Pittsburgh 27?When the Patriots reached 8-0 by
winning at Indianapolis, many pundits pointed to this week?s game as the
biggest hurdle on their way to a 16-0 regular season. But the Steelers, only 2-
3 SU on the road TY despite the league?s top-rated defense, have plenty to
prove in their own right. However, Philly?s 336 YP at N.E. show the Pats?
defense is vulnerable at times (which might why Bill Belichick appeared to be
?courting? Baltimore S Ed Reed last week for future free agency). Pittsburgh 12-
6 last 18 as dog. Pats ?over? 9 of first 11 TY (prior to Monday night in Baltimore).
(05-New England +3 23-20...SR: Pittsburgh 13-9)



***TENNESSEE 27 - San Diego 17?Are back-to-back wins over the
troubled Ravens & Chiefs an indicator that beleaguered Norv Turner finally has
San Diego back on track? Perhaps, especially since L.T. getting 25-30 touches
per game lately. But Philip Rivers (once coached at NC State by current Tenn.
o.c. Norm Chow) still blowing hot and cold, and Bolts? only success TY vs. a
winning team was its fluke-fest vs. Indy (Peyton six ints.!). Key DT Albert
Haynesworth back in action last week. And ex-Bear Justin Gage (22 catches
last 4 games) emerging as reliable target for Vince Young.
(06-S. DIEGO 40-Tenn. 7...S.26-14 S.37/241 T.19/55 S.25/36/0/235 T.13/38/2/163 S.0 T.0)
(06-SAN DIEGO -11 40-7...SR: San Diego 21-16-1)



CINCINNATI 24 - St. Louis 23?Improving Rams just one bobbled goal-line
snap vs. Seattle from being 4-0 SU last four games! Steven Jackson (354 YR,
16 recs.) close to his 2006 self in those four, with St. Louis scoring 24 ppg.
While Cincy potent on offense, injuries & flaws on defense have recently kept the
Bengals under .500 as a home favorite (7-9-1 L2+Ys). With Cincy?s playoff hopes
flickering none too brightly, wouldn?t count on host in this one.
(03-ST. LOUIS -7 27-10...SR: EVEN 5-5)



HOUSTON 23 - Tampa Bay 17?Buccaneers rule the NFC South, where
they?re 4-0 SU & vs. the spread. But they?re just 4-4 vs. the rest of the league.
And Houston?s young defenders (Mario Williams 8? sacks; Amobe Okoye 5)
rarely make things easy for foes. T.B. QB Luke McCown surprised New Orleans for 313 YR and 34 YR in his first start in three years. Sage Rosenfels
has proven to be a capable backup QB for Houston.
(2007 Preseason: Tampa Bay -3 beat Houston 31-24 at Tampa Bay)
(03-TAMPA BAY -11 16-3...SR: Tampa Bay 1-0)



SEATTLE 31 - Arizona 19?Cardinals, with the development of their top-notch
receiving corps, have become a righteous underdog (10-2-1) in recent years. But,
like most teams, they?ve had their problems (1-3 last 4) covering in noisy Seattle.
Don?t see Arizona (defense down 4 starters) keeping pace with Seattle now that
Shaun Alexander back, RB Maurice Morris improved, and WR Nate Burleson
helping at wideout and on returns. Hawks? attacking defense (MLB Lofa Tatupu 3
ints. last week!) setting up some easy scores. Series ?over? 6 of last 7.
(07-ARIZ. 23-Sea. 20...A.20-18 A.26/132 S.24/92 A.23/37/1/299 S.22/36/0/278 A.0 S.1)
(06-SEA. 21-Ariz. 10...S.20-17 S.36/146 A.20/65 S.12/27/2/195 A.24/38/1/191 S.0 A.1)
(06-ARIZ. 27-Sea. 21...S.21-20 S.29/120 A.33/113 A.21/34/1/232 S.20/28/0/213 A.0 S.3)
(07-ARIZONA +3 23-20; 06-SEATTLE -7 21-10, ARIZONA +3 27-21...SR: Arizona 9-8)



Minnesota 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13?Minnesota (6-6) back in thick of NFC
wild card chase. With Adrian Peterson back (116 YR and 2 TDs in romp past
Lions), o. c. Darrell Bevell can effectively pick spots for second-year QB T.
Jackson to look downfield. Rookie WR Sidney Rice (4 TDC) and WR/KR
Aundrae Allison (103-yard return last week; 2 for 52 receiving) joining with
Peterson & Jackson to provide Vikes (33 ppg last 3) with a promising young
nucleus. Meanwhile, S.F. returned to its customary ways at Carolina,
producing only 195 yards, with Trent Dilfer yielding 6 sacks & 4 picks.
(06-S. FRAN. 9-Minn. 3...M.17-8 M.33/135 S.26/42 M.21/31/1/103 S.13/21/1/91 S.0 M.2)
(06-SAN FRANCISCO +4 9-3...SR: San Francisco 22-19-1)




Cleveland 27 - NY JETS 20?Browns (3 giveaways) got sloppy with the ball
last week at Arizona. But they?re still the go-with team in this pairing, likely to
bring much more offense to bear, especially with the Jets? defense ranking way
down the list (which is ?held up? by Cleveland?s, of course). But Browns? young
offense (rebuilt OL has held together well) has the type receiver group (Braylon
Edwards now 12 TDC) that Jets are seeking. Will note that N.Y. won two as a
home dog in OT.
(06-CLE. 20-Jets 13...C.16-12 C.39/147 N.27/88 C.15/22/1/120 N.11/28/2/105 C.0 N.1)
(06-CLEVELAND -2 20-13...SR: Cleveland 12-7)



DENVER 19 - Kansas City 16?Denver has not been a worthy favorite TY (1-
6 in role), while K.C.?s offense (12 ppg last 4) has been besieged by backfield
injuries. Chiefs might get a boost if Larry Johnson (out the last 4 games; check
status) returns, even though rookie RB Kolby Smith (233 YR last 2 games)
hasn?t been the main problem. But Herm Edwards? defense still playing hard
and has revenge in mind. Broncs (3-11 vs. spread last 1+seasons at home)
can?t be trusted.
(07-Denver 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)
(06-DENVER 9-K. City 6 (OT)...D.18-16 D.36/145 K.34/145 D.16/30/1/173 K.17/23/0/131 D.0 K.2)
(06-K. CITY 19-Denver 10...K.22-16 K.41/223 D.16/38 D.25/39/1/206 K.13/22/1/159 K.0 D.0)
(07-Denver +3 27-11; 06-DENVER -10' 9-6 (OT), KANSAS CITY -1' 19-10...SR: Kansas City 52-43)


*Indianapolis 31 - BALTIMORE 14?The wistful among the M&T Bank
Stadium faithful can be excused for looking at playoff-bound Indy and recalling
the glory days of Johnny Unitas & Co. when the Colts played in town. They?re
sure not going down memory lane with the current Ravens team that is
collectively past its sell-by date and had covered just once all year heading into
last Monday?s game vs. Patriots. Baltimore can no longer rely on its aging
defense (32 points or more 3 of last 4) to compensate for its woes on offense.
TV?NBC
(06-Indy 15-BALT. 6...I.15-13 I.35/100 B.20/83 I.15/30/2/161 B.18/29/2/161 I.0 B.2)
(06-Indianapolis +4 15-6 (Playoffs)...SR: Indianapolis 5-2)



MONDAY, DECEMBER 10
*New Orleans 23 - ATLANTA 13?N.O. (5-7) missed a chance last week to
win the game it had to win to get to .500, fumbling on a risky play near the 50 and
a 23-20 lead with less than four minutes to play. But the Saints have proven to
be a mentally-resilient team TY, with good leadership from coaches and QB
Brees. Meanwhile, fragile Falcons a risky proposition, with top three OTs lost
for the year and all losses by 6 points of more. CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-N. ORL. 22-Atl. 16...A.18-14 N.22/91 A.24/75 A.27/41/0/259 N.22/34/1/219 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. ORL. 23-Atl. 3...N.19-10 N.34/146 A.23/117 N.20/28/0/180 A.12/31/0/112 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. Orl. 31-ATL. 13...A.21-20 A.45/281 N.25/95 N.21/30/0/332 A.9/24/0/52 N.0 A.0)
(07-N. ORLEANS -8 22-16; 06-NEW ORLEANS +3' 23-3, New Orleans +3 31-13...SR:
Atlanta 44-33)




*****NBA KEY RELEASES *****

DETROIT by 17 over Chicago (Friday, December 7)
DENVER by 19 over Sacramento (Saturday, December 8)
GOLDEN STATE by 7 over L.A. Lakers (Sunday, December 9)



*****KEY COLLEGE RELEASES*****
MISSOURI by 17 over Purdue (Sat., December 8 Day)
RHODE ISLAND by 2 over Syracuse (Sat., Dec. 8)
CS NORTHRIDGE Plus over Gonzaga (Sat., Dec. 8)
VILLANOVA by 17 over Temple (Sun., Dec. 9)

 

[Senor Capper]

GOLD SHEET -CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF

11 *GREEN BAY over Oakland ***** I THINK THEY HAVE LOSY ONLY ONE 11* IN THE LAST 2 YEARS!!!!
Late Score Forecast:
*GREEN BAY 38 - OAKLAND 16
With early reports indicating Brett Favre will be ready to start after being felled at Dallas, and with other G.B. walking
wounded (including former Raider CB Charles Woodson) benefitting from extra time off, must lay the lumber.
Raiders don?t stop the run on the road (198 ypg the last 4), and RB Ryan Grant (588 YR; only four starts) a godsend
for G.B. G.B. has covered 12 of its last 16 games.




10 ST. LOUIS over *CINCINNATI
Late Score Forecast:
ST. LOUIS 27 - *Cincinnati 22



St. Louis won?t make the playoffs after its 0-8 start, but the Rams have regained their confidence with 3 wins in their
last 4 games, as RB Steven Jackson again healthy, setting up the Rams? explosive WRs. While Cincy still has scary
names on offense, CKO insiders report many in the Bengal locker room have become dispirited after the team?s
many disappointments TY.



TOTALS: UNDER (36) in the Miami-Buffalo game?Dolphins scoring 8 ppg their last 5; Bills play it ultra-conservative when rookie QB Trent Edwards is at
the controls...OVER (45) in the Arizona-Seattle game?Seattle defense setting up easy points for the offense; Cards? defense down four starters.


HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-rated games): DALLAS (-11?) at Detroit?Cowboys? healthy OL, attacking defense, and fine chemistry keep them rolling
despite the 10-day layoff from previous game.



CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL RELEASES FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 7-13, 2007

Friday,December 7

*GOLDEN STATE over Miami (NBA)...Golden State is on a 9-1 SU roll (8-2 vs. number) through Dec. 2. That streak closely coincides with the
return to action of G Stephen Jackson (21 ppg, 5 rpg & 4 apg in last 9 games). Also a factor is the emerging inside presence of 21-year-old
Latvian center Adris Biedrins, who?s contributing 11 ppg, 10 rpg and leads the team in blocks. Obviously, Miami wasn?t able to fill in around
Dwyane Wade in the offseason, and the further erosion of Shaquille O?Neal?s impact has been dramatic.
*GOLDEN STATE 113 - Miami 98 RATING - 10


Saturday,December 8

MARQUETTE over *Wisconsin (Day Game)...G-oriented Marquette at size disadvantage vs. Wisconsin. But veteran Warriors (all 5 starters
back) will effectively use their uptempo attack & aggressive defense, just as smaller, quicker Duke did in 82-58 home win vs. Badgers on Nov.
27. Marquette?s imperturbable sr. PG D. James (15 ppg, 3 apg, 42% treys) will score, dish & keep squad composed in hostile Kohl Center, while
Big East Defensive Player of Year, 6-3 sr. G McNeal (16 ppg, 4 apg), hounds Wiscy?s new go-to scorer, 6-1 soph G Hughes (18 ppg). Badgers
miss ?T&T Boys? (departed stars 6-7 F Tucker & G Taylor) in Warrior payback game. MARQUETTE 73 - *Wisconsin 60 RATING - 11


TEXAS over *Rice...Wrong place, wrong time scenario for Willis Wilson?s rebuilding Rice bunch that is having a hard time adjusting to life
without graduated sharpshooter Morris Almond (NBA 1st-round draftee). With Owls hitting only 34% from floor (and icy 28% beyond arc) and
suffering numerous one-sided beatings already, the last thing Rice needs is to face a roaring Texas squad that?s flying high after win at topranked
UCLA. Horns? firepower (85 ppg) and accuracy (54% from floor!) way too much for Owls to handle.
TEXAS 96 - *Rice 57 RATING - 10 (at Toyota Center)


BOSTON over *Chicago (NBA)...Intense Boston has cooled off a bit vs. the points, but Chicago has problems the Celtics will exploit. Bulls are
last in the league in scoring and are shooting horrendous 39.7% (also ranks last). Interestingly, Boston is playing the best defense in the
league, holding foes to 87 ppg & 40.5% (both league lows). Both teams played last night, but Chicago is 0-3 when unrested, while the Celtics
covered 3 of first 4 playing 2nd of back-to-back games. Celtics competence too much for struggling Bulls.
BOSTON 100 - *Chicago 82 RATING - 10




Sunday,December 9

*VIRGINIA TECH over George Washington (Day Game)...With rebuilding GW desperately looking for a creator on offense now that promising
soph PG T. King is out for year with knee injury, support athletic VT squad getting ever-improving play at that critical position from explosive,
speed-changing frosh PG Thorns (nearly 4 apg) & 6-3 combo G Delaney (8 ppg, 3 apg). And with prized 6-7 frosh F J. Allen (13 ppg, 7 rpg)
complementing vet Fs Vassallo (16 ppg, 44% from arc) & D. Washington (13 ppg, 6 rpg) to give Hokies their best forecourt since joining ACC
4 years ago, mistake-prone Colonials (40 TOs vs. last 2 major foes) fall in Blacksburg.
*VIRGINIA TECH 82 - George Washington 69 RATING - 11



Tuesday,December 11

*VALPARAISO over Evansville...E?ville?s 42-year-old rookie HC Marty Simmons (player & assistant under former HC Crews) unable so far to
replace 3 of the top 4 scorers from year ago, as poor-shooting 1-5 Aces (no DD scorer over 42% FGs) have managed only to eke out 51-50
win at Ball State. E?ville unlikely to make needed progress vs. seasoned, internationally-flavored, nicely-balanced Valpo (all 5 returning
starters between 9 & 12 ppg), which is already 2-0 SU & vs. spread TY in preconference revenge (W. Michigan & Ball State). Make that 3-0.
*VALPARAISO 84 - Evansville 59 RATING - 11

Wednesday,December 12

PRINCETON over *Penn State...No, Pete Carril hasn?t reappeared on Princeton bench. But disciple Sydney Johnson (?97 Ivy MVP) has Tigers
doing a pretty good ?Carril Ball? imitation in his first season as HC, with familiar pass-and-screen tactics controlling pace and allowing Princeton
to stay competitive vs. higher-regarded foes. And we?re not sure how highly to regard Penn State, which is laboring on offense (mere 40%
FGs & 30% 3s) with key F Cornley (bruised knee) in and out of lineup, putting too much scoring pressure on G Claxton.
PRINCETON 51 - *Penn State 50 RATING - 10


OHIO over *Maryland...With defensively-erratic Maryland (witness 85-76 upset loss vs. VCU Dec. 3) off revenge game vs. Boston College,
?take? with rugged Ohio (6th-year HC O?Shea says it?s his most physical unit), which has endured two last-second road losses (Temple &
Patriot League favorite Holy Cross). Ohio?s ball-swishing sr. G Walter (16 ppg, converts 3 treys pg) has eagerly moved to wing from point,
thanks to juco PG M. Allen (7 apg). And with Murray State transfer 6-7 F Orr (12 ppg) meshing with 6-8 sr. C Leon Williams (19 ppg, 10 rpg)
& 6-7 sr. F Tillman (19 ppg, 9 rpg), Bobcats spring upset vs. hot-and-cold Terps. OHIO 78 - *Maryland 77 RATING - 10

 

[Senor Capper]

Sunshine Forecast
============


NFL Computer Predictions

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Chicago Bears (+3) at Washington Redskins

Power Rating Projection:

Washington Redskins 22 Chicago Bears 20


Statistical Projections

Chicago Bears 20
Rushing Yards: 92
Passing Yards: 226
Turnovers: 1

Washington Redskins 23
Rushing Yards: 131
Passing Yards: 238
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Washington Redskins 23 Chicago Bears 20

Sunday, December 9, 2007

Carolina Panthers (+10?) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Power Rating Projection:

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Carolina Panthers 15


Statistical Projections

Carolina Panthers 17
Rushing Yards: 103
Passing Yards: 210
Turnovers: 2

Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Rushing Yards: 139
Passing Yards: 202
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Carolina Panthers 10

Dallas Cowboys (-10?) at Detroit Lions

Power Rating Projection:

Dallas Cowboys 27 Detroit Lions 21


Statistical Projections

Dallas Cowboys 31
Rushing Yards: 111
Passing Yards: 295
Turnovers: 3

Detroit Lions 19
Rushing Yards: 65
Passing Yards: 254
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Detroit Lions 33 Dallas Cowboys 27
Detroit Lions (1 star)
Angle: Scored 30+ Points in Consecutive Games [Teams coming off back-to-back games scoring at least 30 points ]
Go against Dallas Cowboys ( Playing away from home, Played previous two games at home, 19-28-1, 40.4% )
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Dallas Cowboys ( No additional conditions, 42-66-3, 38.9% )

Miami Dolphins (+7) at Buffalo Bills

Power Rating Projection:

Buffalo Bills 21 Miami Dolphins 18


Statistical Projections

Miami Dolphins 15
Rushing Yards: 104
Passing Yards: 170
Turnovers: 2

Buffalo Bills 21
Rushing Yards: 105
Passing Yards: 209
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Buffalo Bills 24 Miami Dolphins 10
Buffalo Bills (1 star)
Angle: Home After Road Upset Win [Home teams coming off an upset win on the road ]
Go with Buffalo Bills ( Opponent played previous game at home, Opponent lost previous game by at least 13 points, 24-17, 58.5% )

New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Power Rating Projection:

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 21


Statistical Projections

New York Giants 18
Rushing Yards: 127
Passing Yards: 171
Turnovers: 1

Philadelphia Eagles 24
Rushing Yards: 117
Passing Yards: 260
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Philadelphia Eagles 28 New York Giants 25

Oakland Raiders (+10) at Green Bay Packers

Power Rating Projection:

Green Bay Packers 26 Oakland Raiders 14


Statistical Projections

Oakland Raiders 15
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 177
Turnovers: 2

Green Bay Packers 28
Rushing Yards: 111
Passing Yards: 295
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Green Bay Packers 23 Oakland Raiders 12

Pittsburgh Steelers (+10?) at New England Patriots

Power Rating Projection:

New England Patriots 25 Pittsburgh Steelers 16


Statistical Projections

Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Rushing Yards: 145
Passing Yards: 206
Turnovers: 2

New England Patriots 26
Rushing Yards: 104
Passing Yards: 243
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New England Patriots 29 Pittsburgh Steelers 7
New England Patriots (1 star)

San Diego Chargers (-1) at Tennessee Titans

Power Rating Projection:

San Diego Chargers 24 Tennessee Titans 20


Statistical Projections

San Diego Chargers 23
Rushing Yards: 113
Passing Yards: 199
Turnovers: 2

Tennessee Titans 16
Rushing Yards: 126
Passing Yards: 173
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to San Diego Chargers

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Diego Chargers 25 Tennessee Titans 22

St Louis Rams (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals

Power Rating Projection:

Cincinnati Bengals 24 St Louis Rams 17


Statistical Projections

St Louis Rams 21
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 255
Turnovers: 3

Cincinnati Bengals 28
Rushing Yards: 97
Passing Yards: 291
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Cincinnati Bengals 24 St Louis Rams 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-2?) at Houston Texans

Power Rating Projection:

Houston Texans 22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21


Statistical Projections

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25
Rushing Yards: 131
Passing Yards: 229
Turnovers: 1

Houston Texans 19
Rushing Yards: 83
Passing Yards: 241
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 Houston Texans 20

Arizona Cardinals (+6?) at Seattle Seahawks

Power Rating Projection:

Seattle Seahawks 26 Arizona Cardinals 18


Statistical Projections

Arizona Cardinals 19
Rushing Yards: 99
Passing Yards: 233
Turnovers: 2

Seattle Seahawks 23
Rushing Yards: 97
Passing Yards: 244
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Seattle Seahawks 28 Arizona Cardinals 20

Minnesota Vikings (-7) at San Francisco 49ers

Power Rating Projection:

Minnesota Vikings 21 San Francisco 49ers 14


Statistical Projections

Minnesota Vikings 23
Rushing Yards: 152
Passing Yards: 168
Turnovers: 1

San Francisco 49ers 11
Rushing Yards: 69
Passing Yards: 183
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Minnesota Vikings

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Minnesota Vikings 14 San Francisco 49ers 9

Cleveland Browns (-3?) at New York Jets

Power Rating Projection:

Cleveland Browns 23 New York Jets 21


Statistical Projections

Cleveland Browns 28
Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 287
Turnovers: 2

New York Jets 22
Rushing Yards: 122
Passing Yards: 214
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Cleveland Browns 30 New York Jets 19
Cleveland Browns (1 star)

Kansas City Chiefs (+6?) at Denver Broncos

Power Rating Projection:

Denver Broncos 20 Kansas City Chiefs 19


Statistical Projections

Kansas City Chiefs 20
Rushing Yards: 101
Passing Yards: 234
Turnovers: 2

Denver Broncos 22
Rushing Yards: 122
Passing Yards: 251
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Denver Broncos 15 Kansas City Chiefs 14

Indianapolis Colts (-9?) at Baltimore Ravens

Power Rating Projection:

Indianapolis Colts 24 Baltimore Ravens 19


Statistical Projections

Indianapolis Colts 27
Rushing Yards: 84
Passing Yards: 282
Turnovers: 1

Baltimore Ravens 16
Rushing Yards: 105
Passing Yards: 186
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts 31 Baltimore Ravens 13
Indianapolis Colts (1 star)
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Indianapolis Colts ( No additional conditions, 42-66-3, 38.9% )
Angle: Home Underdogs [Teams playing as a home underdog ]
Go with Baltimore Ravens ( Underdog by more than 7 points, Lost at home in previous game, 15-9, 62.5% )

Monday, December 10, 2007

New Orleans Saints (-5) at Atlanta Falcons

Power Rating Projection:

New Orleans Saints 25 Atlanta Falcons 19


Statistical Projections

New Orleans Saints 25
Rushing Yards: 95
Passing Yards: 283
Turnovers: 2

Atlanta Falcons 21
Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 270
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New Orleans Saints 28 Atlanta Falcons 21

 

[Senor Capper]

Pointwise


College Basketball


COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
ARIZONA over Illinois (Sat) RATING: 1
CALIFORNIA over Kansas State (Sun) RATING: 2
OHIO U over Maryland (Wed) RATING: 3
NEW MEXICO over San Diego (Sat) RATING: 3
TOLEDO over Drexel (Sat) RATING: 4
VILLANOVA over Temple (Sun) RATING: 4
MIAMI-FLA over Mississippi St (Thurs) RATING: 5


NFL KEY RELEASES
MINNESOTA over San Francisco RATING: 2
SEATTLE over Arizona RATING: 3
TENNESSEE over San Diego RATING: 4
CAROLINA over Jacksonville RATING: 5
CLEVELAND over New York Jets RATING: 5



==============


Northcoast
4 Star Jacksonville 37-16
3 Star San Diego 27-21
2 Star Clevand 30-17
2 Star N Y Giants +24-20

Early Bird Seattle -6-



===============



Marc L
stat of the week
The Denver Broncos are 1-11 ATS at home against an opponent
off a double-digit ATS loss.
Marc L
smart box
COACHING DOWN THE STRETCH
The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes race. It?s where races are won and lost.

It?s been said many times over that if you don?t have the horse you won?t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. There are times, though, when the ride he?s given by the jockey can put the team in the winner??s circle. That?s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.

The same holds true for head coaches. They are the pilots, guiding their teams with game plans designed for success or failure.

Listed below are the best and worst head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13 thru 16, minimum 6 results (current affiliation in parenthesis).

We recommend you keep this list right beside your schedule as it?s as good a way to find the winner's circle as any at this stage of the season...

HOME
Belichick (NE) 15-6
Lewis (Cin) 1-6-1
Fox (Caro) 3-6
Gruden (TB) 6-11

AWAY
Fox (Caro) 8-3
Dungy (Ind) 7-15

FAVORITE
Jauron (Buff) 5-2
Smith (Chi) 2-5-1
Turner (SD) 5-11

DOG
Holmgren (Sea) 13-6-2
Reid (Phil) 11-6
Gibbs (Wash) 28-15-1
Lewis (Cin) 2-5
Phillips (Dall) 5-9-1

 

[Senor Capper]

THE SPORTS REPORTER



SUPER BEST BET

*HOUSTON over TAMPA BAY by 21
How do you beat the Tampa Bay defense? With a bowling ball between the tackles that
circumvents their pass rush and avoids their zone coverage. Rise up, Ron Dayne, from
the NFL living dead of running back options. Dayne actually had 86 yards on 18 carries
in last week?s loss by Houston at Tennessee, so a productive game by the former
Heisman winner would not be completely out of left field. The Bucs are off a hard-fought
win against division-rival New Orleans. With four games remaining on the schedule, they
now lead the NFC South by three games over Carolina, a team that died weeks ago, and
New Orleans, against whom the Bucs are 2-0 in 2007. Tampa Bay is a commanding 4-
0 within its division and 7-2 in NFC play, and this non-conference game affects neither
of those potential tie-breaking records. To sum it all up, this is the least important game
on the Bucs? schedule. When a team invests as much time and energy on the division as
the Bucs have, and their investment has paid off as well as it has to date, the team has
earned the right to take a week off ? or, so the team thinks. The schedule, however, says
they have to play a game on artificial turf in Houston with a third-string running back and
possibly Luke McCown starting at quarterback. They got away with it last Sunday but will very surprising if they get away with it here. HOUSTON, 31-10.





BEST BET

*JACKSONVILLE over CAROLINA by 24
The pitiful Panthers showed some signs of life last week against an even worse 49er
team, but travel to face a talented and angry Jaguars team. Carolina has actually managed
an impressive 4-2 record on the road this season, but all four of those wins came
in the first six weeks of the year. Lots of things have gone south for the Panthers since
week six. The Jags, once again, came this close to dethroning the Colts for the AFC South
title but fell three points short. They?ll take little solace in the effort and look to work out
their frustrations against the non-conference opponent visiting this weekend. The
Jacksonville running attack should find plenty of room to run against a Panthers defense
that gives up an average of 112 yards on the ground. Carolina has not fared well against
the AFC South this season, losing games to Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee without
putting up much of a fight. This week?s scenario does them no favors by matching
them up with a Jaguars team gearing into playoff mode and intent on proving themselves
after losing a big game last week. Vinny Testaverde won the dinosaur match-up vs. Trent
Dilfer last Sunday. Good for him. JACKSONVILLE 34-10.



BEST BET

MINNESOTA over *SAN FRANCISCO by 18
Only in the bad, bad NFC could it have happened this soon and yes, a 6-6 SU record after
12 games is only one game better than at this point a year ago -- but Minnesota is the
latest in a long line of Year Two teams to move up after terrible Year Ones. Injuries and
the transition to a new head coach held them back after Brad Childress and staff
replaced Tice and staff in 2006. The quarterback position has held them back from making
a quantum leap in 2007, but it?s not like the Vikings have a quarterback that can outduel
Tarvaris Jackson. Trent ?What, Me Care?? Dilfer tossed four interceptions last
Sunday and if you?re a 49ers players, it can?t be too exciting to be 3-9 in December, waking
up to practice with this sour-pussed, accidental Super Bowl ring wearer as your
leader. Vikings players must bond together behind the baby carriage like Pittsburgh
Steelers players rallied in support of Ben Roethisberger in 2004 and 2005. As noted before with the Vikings, they usually run the ball well and do a good job of containing or
stopping the other team?s running game. They play like those Steelers played.
Sometimes, their defense even rises up and gets turnovers. They ran away from Atlanta
and the New York Giants by getting defensive touchdowns. When you do something once
or twice, sometimes you can do it again. The Vikings played here off a short week last
season, very, very injured, and lost 9-6. They remember. MINNESOTA, 24-6.



RECOMMENDED

DALLAS over *DETROIT by 21
The proverbial goose looks positively cooked in Detroit, where the early season hopes
brewed by a 6-2 start have vanished in the smoke of a smoldering four-game slide. The
Detroit offense was dealt another blow when leading receiver Roy Williams was felled by
a knee injury that makes him questionable for this week?s contest. In actuality, it?s debatable
as to whether his presence would matter in the final outcome anyway. Dallas has
looked nearly unbeatable for most of the season, taking on all comers ? except for the
New England Patriots, of course. The Cowboys formula is simple: throw early and often
then close out games with the strong running of Marion Barber. The Dallas defense has
also played exceptionally well this year, relying on their bevy of pass rushers to consistently
harass opposing quarterbacks while limiting running backs to an average of 84
yards per game ? fourth best in the NFL. Greg Ellis and DeMarcus Ware have already
notched 10+ sacks each and facing a Mike Martz-coached offense should see these
hybrid DE/LBs finding plenty of opportunities to rush the passer. Martz is notorious for
flooding the field with receivers to the detriment of the pass protection, but never seems
to adjust regardless of how many hits his QB ends up taking. For the record, Jon Kitna
has been sacked a league-leading 44 times. Dallas will add several to that tally in this road victory. DALLAS 35-14.



RECOMMENDED

*TENNESSEE over SAN DIEGO by 8
Norv Stram now has most of the NFL right where he wants it: looking away from him and
San Diego?s 7-5 record ? the worst record among the four AFC division-leaders, but still
two games and a head-to-head win better than nearest pursuer, 5-7 SU Denver.
However, the one guy staring at him is also 7-5 SU and is not in a position to win his division.
Therefore, Titans? head coach Jeff Fisher can sell this game as the biggest of the
season to his players, who can get to 8-5 SU and legitimate Wild Card contention status
with Jacksonville and Cleveland by protecting home field against a visitor that is 0-4 SU
and ATS in non-division road games this season. "We just kept applying pressure the
whole game and we didn't let up," said Chargers? Shawne Merriman about the win in
Kansas City last week, accomplished against sub-par statue quarterbacks, a lousy offensive
line and back-up running backs. Tennessee?s offensive line is solid and Vince Young
is a wild card player at the quarterback position. Tennessee?s offense is up from 16 first
downs per game to 17 this season, while San Diego?s is down from 20 to 18. Young can
do more with his legs than Phillip Rivers can. TENNESSEE, 29-21.




RECOMMENDED

ARIZONA over *SEATTLE by 3
Huge game for the 6-6 SU Cardinals, who are 1-0 in the season series with Seattle but
two games behind the 8-4 SU Seahawks in the NFC West. Do they have what it takes to
make the next three games after this one a sprint to the wire? The Seahawks had a
Feeley-good day at Philadelphia last Sunday when running back Shaun Alexander
returned to action for the stretch run while the defense picked the Eagles? #2 quarterback
four times. Despite the apparent disadvantage of having Matt (Dink-and-Dunk)
Leinart at quarterback for the first meeting, the Cardinals were able to gain 431 offensive
yards to 370 and won the game 23-20 despite being only even in Turnover Ratio.
Mercifully, Leinart?s attitude and injuries have moved him out of the picture. Kurt Warner
will quarterback Arizona this time around ? for better or worse, as it always is with
Warner. The Cardinals are on a 0-2 SU and ATS run in Seattle.Warner fumbled four times
in last season?s 21-10 defeat, and the team melted down immediately after he was
knocked out the 37-12 defeat in 2005 with an injury. Hold onto the damn ball and don?t
get hurt, you?ARIZONA, 23-20.



RECOMMENDED
*TENNESSEE over SAN DIEGO by 8
Norv Stram now has most of the NFL right where he wants it: looking away from him and
San Diego?s 7-5 record ? the worst record among the four AFC division-leaders, but still
two games and a head-to-head win better than nearest pursuer, 5-7 SU Denver.
However, the one guy staring at him is also 7-5 SU and is not in a position to win his division.
Therefore, Titans? head coach Jeff Fisher can sell this game as the biggest of the
season to his players, who can get to 8-5 SU and legitimate Wild Card contention status
with Jacksonville and Cleveland by protecting home field against a visitor that is 0-4 SU
and ATS in non-division road games this season. "We just kept applying pressure the
whole game and we didn't let up," said Chargers? Shawne Merriman about the win in
Kansas City last week, accomplished against sub-par statue quarterbacks, a lousy offensive
line and back-up running backs. Tennessee?s offensive line is solid and Vince Young
is a wild card player at the quarterback position. Tennessee?s offense is up from 16 first
downs per game to 17 this season, while San Diego?s is down from 20 to 18. Young can
do more with his legs than Phillip Rivers can. TENNESSEE, 29-21.






THE SPORTS REPORTER COLLEGE BASKETS:


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 8

BEST BET

SETON HALL over *PENN STATE by 8
Bobby Gonzalez finally gets his shot to command a program with a measure of pedigree,
and have every expectation he?ll make the most of it, with his knack for effective recruiting.
Nittany Lions are a modest representative of a ?down? conference, and barring last
weekend?s Palestra outing against St. Joe?s, they?ve kept themselves as far as possible
from any severely-testing competition. Trust the under-the-radar Pirates to heat things
up, with a significant road win more than theoretically-conceivable. SETON HALL, 74-66.


BEST BET

*INDIANA over KENTUCKY by 16
Appears to be an appealing regional brand-name barnburner at first glance, but you?d
better confirm the proof-power of what?s inside that so-called bottle of bonded Kentucky
before you swallow it whole. Now, Billy Gillespie?s cashed some parlay, running through
the raindrops at UTEP and A&M to find himself in the promised land of Lexington. But
Lexington?s among the game?s most brightly-lit stages, and current dropoff is farther
than team?s performance should have endured after mere departure of Bobby Perry and
Randolph Morris. Gillespie?s game plan against Carolina to Hack Hansbrough failed utterly,
as ?Heels made free throws, and ?Cats could barely get to the line themselves until
game was well out of reach. Lexington locals will be uncomfortable all year, during transition
season. Indy G Jordan Crawford eligible to return, here. Hoosiers will take ?Cats to
task if possible, and they?re wholly capable. INDIANA, 80-64.



THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6

RECOMMENDED
*WRIGHT STATE over VALPARAISO by 12
Yes, DaShaun Wood is gone, but Wright State continues to click along for Brad Brownell.
Recent, decent Valpo performances should keep price reasonable, but Raiders have been
devastating on home floor against teams they figure to dominate . . . and we?d look for
an above-average measure of sharpness, with Butler coming to call in just 48 hours.
Keep tabs re eligibility issues Valpo German power forward Benjamin Fumey. WRIGHT STATE, 70-58.



RECOMMENDED

*VILLANOVA over LSU by 14
Not urging you to pay a bustout-retail price, but there?s a significant inherent class differential
here, and can envision ?Cats shaking loose and coasting home against largely
undisciplined, careless foe. VILLANOVA, 76-62.



SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9

RECOMMENDED

*TEMPLE over VILLANOVA by 6
We?ve been nimble enough to succeed in going both with and against the Owls. This
looks like another such opportunity. Big Five dogs are typically attractive, and Fran
Dunphy?s underrated bunch capable of giving less-experienced Wildcats fits. So long as
Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale respect ball control while sustaining their scoring
efficiency, and Spanish C Sergio Olmos minimizes turnovers and gets his share of
boards, Temple more than capable of keeping pace with Villanova outfit trying to come a
long way in a short time. TEMPLE, 68-62.









THE SPORTS REPORTER - NBA


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6

BEST BET
DENVER over *DALLAS by 7
Weary legs could be the theme of the night for the first half of the TNT doubleheader.
Both teams played last night in meaningful games, the Nuggets taking on the Lakers at
home and the Mavericks battling the Spurs in San Antonio. Still, it?s likely that both teams
put up a modicum of effort with such a large audience watching ? which could mean a
lot of missed shots. Keep in mind that the Mavericks are in the midst of a stretch of playing
three straight four game weeks, while the Nuggets have had a much lighter schedule
of late. Consider the Mavericks prime targets for an upset loss. DENVER 107-100



SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9


BEST BET

*TORONTO over HOUSTON by 13
It?s a Sunday afternoon game in Toronto, a formula that usually spells trouble for the visiting
team. Houston has looked shaky on the road all season and are running into a
Raptors team that probably took it to the chin in Boston a couple nights back. Meanwhile,
the Rockets are playing three road games in four days, and today is their most vulnerable
situation ? one day after playing in New Jersey / New York and most likely having
spent a nice Saturday night enjoying themselves in either New York or Toronto, just in
time for the 12:30 PM start time. TORONTO 111-98




MONDAY, DECEMBER 10

BEST BET

*PHOENIX over MIAMI by 20
By this time, the Heat will be playing their fourth road game in five days. That equals two
back-to-backs on the West Coast, and if you think back just a couple more days you?ll
realize the Heat are completing their third road back-to-back set in nine days. You have
to think that kind of brutal schedule will take its toll on the Heat, who have their fair share
of problems without the intrusions of the schedule. Phoenix has coasted at home all season
and they should find themselves in the middle of a blowout, early. PHOENIX 119-99
__________________
10* PLAYS ARE 39 - 16 -1 IN FOOTBALL THIS YEAR AND : 42 -19 -1 IN ALL SPORTS


*College Football = 169-157 - 8 = + 28.7 UNITS

*NFL 07'= 93 - 87 - 5 = - 15.4 UNITS

*NBA = 84- 73-1 = + 26.6 UNITS

*NCAA HOOPS = 3 -3 ... = - 1.1 UNITS

15* GOM = 2-3

15* OVERALL:= 5-5

20* GOY: = 1-2


* PLAYS ARE RATED FROM 1 - 10 UNITS.

GOM'S = 15 UNITS / GOY'S = 20 UNITS


===========

TOM SCOTT?S ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Posted: 2007-12-04
Sometimes, no matter how bad the opponent is, a team should not be favored. There?s a situation in the NFL this week that finds a substantial home favorite who has been unable to crack the 21-point mark in any of his last three games. If you can?t score 21 in the NFL it?s difficult to win the game let alone cover a spread as a favorite. For example: All NFL teams who failed to score 21 points in games since 1980 went 2003-4735-179 to the spread, less than 30% winners. Favorites who didn?t come up with the black jack went 594-2063-75 ATS or 22.3% winners. Favorites of -4 or more were 274-1112-21 to the number and less than 20% of the tickets got cashed. With that idea in mind and a little tweak here and there, I present my Angle of the Week:

PLAY AGAINST any NFL division home favorite of -4 or more who failed to score 21 or more points in any of his last three games if he is off a SU and ATS win and is going into revenge.

26 Year ATS = 13-1 for 92.8%

This week?s play = MIAMI over Buffalo


============

 

[Senor Capper]

WINNING POINTS

NFL

****BEST BET

Carolina over *Jacksonville by 10 :scared
There?s one thing the Panthers can do and that?s win away from home.
Carolina has knocked off Arizona,Atlanta,New Orleans and St. Louis on the
road this year.The Panthers are at their best as a road underdog, especially
in December where they have covered 13 of the past 15 times in this role.
Consequently, Jacksonville is at its worst laying a big price.The Jaguars have
been double-digit chalk four times during the last three years.They?ve failed
to cover every time, including laying 10 this season to the Falcons.
Jacksonville managed only to beat Atlanta, 13-7.The Jaguars are a conservative
team that wins playing good defense, running the ball and limiting mistakes.
That means taking few shots downfield.This philosophy fits their personnel,
but is not necessarily good for covering a large pointspread. The
Panthers are not devoid of talent. Julius Peppers is an elite defensive end.
Linebacker Jon Beason is a candidate for defensive rookie of the year. Steve
Smith remains a dangerous playmaker. After fiddling around with totally
ineffective David Carr, Panthers coach John Fox fully realizes 44-year-old
Vinny Testaverde gives his team the best opportunity to win.The Panthers
had no confidence when the battered Carr was under center.They have a
much better attitude and downfield threat with Testaverde. Smith plays better.
So do running backs DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. One reason
why the Panthers play better on the road is less pressure.The onus is
on Jacksonville. Don?t be surprised if the Jaguars don?t respond well this
week. Jacksonville played well at Indianapolis last Sunday, but still lost.That
defeat, in all probability, ended the Jaguars?AFC South Division title hopes.
The Jaguars have a key road tilt next week at Pittsburgh.This interconference
matchup isn?t big on their radar screen. CAROLINA 24-14.



***BEST BET

*Green Bay over Oakland by 27
The combination of Green Bay having four extra days to game-plan and get
healthy, the Raiders coming into cold weather and drawing an early start
time puts us in the Packers? corner. Brett Favre should be fine to start, but
even if he isn?t the Packers have enough to cover this spread with Aaron
Rodgers.The Raiders entered Week 13 with the worst run defense in the
league.The Packers are particularly tough when they can get their ground
attack going, which makes their play-action passes and frequent slant patterns
even more effective. The Raiders have a decent secondary, but not
nearly enough depth to cover Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and rookie
James Jones. Green Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS versus AFC West teams this season.
Favre played his worst game of the season last Thursday against Dallas.
So did the Packers? defense. Some of this, of course,was because of Dallas,
the class of the NFC so far. But some also was injury-related.More than likely
the Packers will get back their two key defensive players that didn?t play
against the Cowboys, cornerback Charles Woodson and pass rusher Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila. Justin Fargas has been running well for the Raiders, but the
team still turns the ball over too much (26 giveaways) and commits too
many penalties to hang with an elite team like the Packers at such a tough
road venue. The Raiders? quarterback situation consists of Daunte
Culpepper,who isn?t 100 percent and still doesn?t have a full grasp of the
offense, perennial backup Josh McCown and rookie JaMarcus Russell, who
is just beginning to get his feet wet. The Packers are out for redemption
after a rare poor showing. They are a well-coached, fundamentally sound
team with plenty of big-play ability.The Raiders have yet to exhibit any of
these traits. GREEN BAY 37-10.



**PREFERRED



*Tennessee over San Diego by 10
The Chargers have seized control of the weak AFC West, but have yet to
establish a consistent passing attack and have covered just two of their last
eight away contests. Vince Young is the kind of quarterback San Diego?s
speed pass rushers can?t catch up to. Young?s passing is getting sharper
every week.The Titans have an inside-outside rushing tandem of LenDale
White and Chris Brown to keep the Chargers on their heels. Star defensive
lineman Albert Haynesworth returned last Sunday for Tennessee after missing
three games with a groin injury.The difference was amazing when he
wasn?t in the lineup.The Titans surrendered 97 points in the three games
Haynesworth missed. Their run defense is top-notch when Haynesworth
plays, which is crucial in bottling up LaDainian Tomlinson. Philip Rivers
isn?t enough of a playmaker to lead San Diego to a road victory unless he?s
getting a major contribution from Tomlinson. Flying from the West Coast to
Nashville for an early start time is a major negative for the Chargers.The last
time they had to do that was three weeks ago at Jacksonville and they were
flat in a 24-17 loss. The Titans also have a huge coaching edge with Jeff
Fisher going against Norv Turner.TENNESSEE 20-10.


*San Francisco over Minnesota by 4
Unlike most seasons, there is more of a gap in the NFL this season between
the haves and the have-nots.The 49ers definitely are a have-not.They?ve lost
nine of their past 10 games. Frank Gore has rushed for 100 yards once this
season. San Francisco has broken the 20-point barrier only one time. But
the Vikings are not a ?have? team yet.Yes, they have won four of their past
five. Adrian Peterson is a dominating running back. Even Tarvaris Jackson
has picked up his play, completing 45-of-58 passes for 504 yards and three
touchdowns during the past three games. However, Minnesota is traveling
to the West Coast in the rare spot of being a road favorite.The game is on
grass. The Vikings are used to playing indoors on carpet. Their pass rush
isn?t going to be as effective because of this. The Vikings, under Brad
Childress, aren?t used to playing under this kind of pressure.They are shooting
for a wild-card spot and expected to win. It?s a division sandwich, too,
for Minnesota.The Vikings just hosted the Lions and are home to the Bears
the following Sunday.The 49ers have nothing to lose.They can play loose.
Veteran quarterback Trent Dilfer has decent receiving targets.The Vikings
went into last week ranked last in pass defense. SAN FRANCISCO 21-17.




NBA


Friday, December 7

***BEST BET
Indiana over *Orlando by 4
Indiana should be dialed-in to this matchup having had three days to prepare and then
off for another four days. Mike Dunleavy and Marquis Daniels are playing well. This
is Orlando?s first game back from a five-game West Coast trip so it could come out flat.
INDIANA 114-110.


***BEST BET
Toronto over *Boston by 3
The Raptors nearly upset Boston in their third game of the season, losing in overtime
as a short home favorite. The Celtics had trouble matching up against the quickness
of point guard T.J. Ford, who had 32 points. Chris Bosh had 19 points and 10 boards
for the Raptors and wasn?t 100 percent back then. Bosh (check status) should be recovered
from his recent groin injury. TORONTO 104-101.

***BEST BET
*Golden State over Miami by 11
The Warriors can run the tired and old Heat out of the gym. The Heat are playing
their second road game in two nights after opening a West Coast road swing in the high altitude of Utah on Monday. Monta Ellis is heating up and so are the Warriors.
Golden State was 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS heading into December. GOLDEN STATE
116-105.


Saturday, December 8

***BEST BET
*Minnesota over Phoenix by 1
The Suns have a convenient excuse for overlooking the Timberwolves since this is their
final game of a five-game road trip. They may very well take the Timberwolves too
lightly. It?s Phoenix?s fourth game in five nights. Phoenix?s weakness is its weak bench.
The Timberwolves won?t be home again until Friday. They have three days off after
this matchup so the focus should be there. Al Jefferson provides scoring punch inside
and could get foul-prone Amare Stoudamire in foul trouble. MINNESOTA 114-113.


Sunday, December 9
***BEST BET
New Jersey over *Washington by 7
The Nets have owned the Wizards defeating them six consecutive times. Jason Kidd
could post another triple-down operating against Wizards? second-string point guard
Antonio Daniels. Richard Jefferson is having an All-Star type of first half for New
Jersey and Vince Carter is getting his shot back. Washington ranked just 24th in
defense. NEW JERSEY 112-105.



COLLEGE HOOPS:

Saturday, December 8

***BEST BET
Kansas* over DePaul by 24
After Jerry Wainwright?s lousy-shooting DePaul team beat Kansas 64-57 in Chicago
last season (right after Kansas had beaten Florida), Jayhawks? coach Self said, ?We
couldn?t play good defense without fouling.? Translation: ?We got hosed.? DePaul
guard Draelon Burns shot 8-for-8 from three-point range in DePaul?s last game, which
will seem like an eternity ago when he has trouble making the range in this building
against this opponent. Wainwright is committed to an up-tempo change this season
and says the worst thing to do would be to put on the brakes. Which would seem to
indicate mistakes forthcoming at a rapid pace. KANSAS, 89-65.



***BEST BET
Ohio* over Delaware by 31
Balanced Bobcats scoring and the ability to spread the floor with good outside shooting
range will make it very hard for scoring-challenged Delaware to hang in there.
What little air had been in this program went out of it two or three seasons ago and if
they are not getting steals, they?re not gonna be putting points on the board and even
then, they?re 50-50 to make an uncontested layup. Four Delaware players recently
played 32 to 39 minutes in a loss at Iona (2-27 SU in 2006-07). "There's a level of
excitement about the team because we have new players and transfers becoming eligible
December 16," coach Monte Ross said recently. A check of the calendar reveals the
shocking truth: that?s eight days from today. OHIO, 95-64.


***BEST BET
Rhode Island over Syracuse* by 10
It?s so nice to have national TV commentators dishing out the superlatives about
Syracuse?s untested freshmen and sophomore guards as if they were Pearl Washington
assists. Our EXECUTIVE decision-makers used that edge for a 5-STAR winner with
UMass +7.5 vs. Boeheim?s NIT Orange Blossoms last week, and this Rhode Island
team is deeper into its running sets than Massachusetts was. When four of your guys
score 20 on your home floor and you still lose, you obviously have some work to do.
If he no longer wants to play zone, then he?ll be out-rebounded and out-breaked with
trigger-muscle from Rhodie?s upperclassmen muscle Daniels, Seawright and Mbang.
RHODE ISLAND, 85-75.


=============

THE SPORTS MEMO

MARTY OTTO
BEST BET

Dallas at Detroit +10.5 O/U 51.5
Recommendation: Detroit
The free falling Lions are playing themselves out of a playoff spot as
losers of four straight. Detroit was manhandled at the line of scrimmage
last week as the Vikings tallied 440 yards (200-plus on the
ground and through the air) and scored TDs on their first six possessions.
The Lions offense is sputtering as Kitna?s TD rate goes down
and the INT rate increases, a seven to seven ratio in his last five
games while the defense has been torched for 30 points or more
in three of the last four losses. They now face a Dallas team that is
ranked as the NFL?s second best total and scoring offense, led by
Tony Romo and Terrell Owens. Romo has earned every penny of his
new contract thus far as he completes 66% of his pass attempts
having racked up 3,352 yards with 33 TDs against just 14 INTs. He
has 15 multi-TD games and only one game in which he threw multiple
INTs. But where Dallas excels and keeps foes guessing is with
their ability to mix in Marion Barber and Julius Jones behind a massive
offensive line. But while they will hold very real advantages in
multiple areas this week, the Cowboys shouldn?t take your money
this week. No, they are coming off the biggest hyped game they
have played this year, and they won in convincing fashion. They are
fat and happy and comfortable after three straight home wins, and
may be caught looking ahead to another showdown with rival Philly
next week. We?ll back the Lions in an inflated range as everyone
else bails ship to give us a nice double digit spread to work with.



TEDDY COVERS
BEST BET
NY Giants +3 at Philadelphia O/U 42.5
Recommendation: New York
The Eagles saw their last realistic chance at a longshot playoff
berth go down in flames this past Sunday, as AJ Feeley threw
four interceptions in yet another ugly home loss. Philly hasn?t
enjoyed a tremendous edge at Lincoln Financial Field this season.
Their only two home wins have come against the Lions and
Dolphins -- not exactly a who?s who of quality NFL teams. We?ve
seen Philly lose straight up as a favorite on this field on three
separate occasions, along with their shellacking at home to division
rival Dallas, for a 2-4 SU and ATS mark in Philadelphia. But
this is nothing new. Philly is a .500 team at home dating back to
the start of the 2005 season; well under .500 against the spread.
They lost here at home to the Giants last year, and the year before.
And there?s little reason to expect the Eagles collective
fortunes to change in this meeting against the G-men. After all,
Andy Reid?s squad was pretty much dominated in the first meeting
between these two teams this year, managing only a single
field goal on less than 200 yards of offense. The Giants, too, are
not a team to support at home, but we certainly like their track record
in this road underdog situation. Following their come-frombehind
win at Chicago this past Sunday, Eli Manning and company
have now won and covered each of their last five road games
since their Week 1 loss at Dallas. I?m quite comfortable recommending
a play getting the better team as a full field goal underdog
in a ?hostile? road venue that really isn?t very hostile at all.



TIM TRUSHEL
BEST BET
Oakland +10 at Green Bay O/U 41.5
Recommendation: Oakland
The Packers are hurting as they try to keep pace with Dallas
for the possibility of securing home field advantage in
the playoffs. Obviously last week?s loss to the Cowboys was
disheartening but it may also have long term implications as
Brett Favre was knocked out with a separated shoulder and
injured elbow. He is expected to play Sunday, but the injury
will likely keep him from playing at full strength. With that, the
Packers? game plan this week should include a healthy dose
of Ryan Grant, who has racked up a team-high 561 yards on
the ground in the last six weeks while adding four TDs. The
Raiders do rank 30th against the run, giving up an average of
over 130 yards per game and although last week?s stifling of
Denver looks impressive we aren?t buying a wholesale transition
into a solid stop unit up front. Oakland?s strength comes
from its ball hawking secondary and good cover LBs, which
should force a turnover or two from Favre. The Raiders also
have gotten a boost from running back Justin Fargas who has
put up 285 yards and two TDs the last two weeks. His performance
was a direct result of the Raiders finally showing
some clout with the pass, completing 33-of-50 passes and no
INTs during that span. The last two weeks have show Oakland
is not a that bad of a team when they get moderate contributions
from the running and passing game. We look for
them to get that again this weekend as we grab to 10 points.



DAVID JONES
BEST BET
Pittsburgh +14.5 at New England O/U NL
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh Steelers will try to upend New England?s dream of
a perfect season in the headline matchup of week 14?s NFL slate.
Through 11 games, the Steelers boasted the league?s top defense.
Pittsburgh is able to stop the run or pass in a well balanced defensive
scheme. The Steelers are also a solid offensive team as well.
With one of the league?s best rushing attacks behind RB Willie Parker,
Pittsburgh has the ability to keep the Patriots high powered offense
on the sideline. The passing game can strike with QB Ben Roethlisberger
and WR Hines Ward when foes try to focus on stopping
the run. While there is no doubt that the Pats are the clear favorite
to win the Super Bowl, the perceived difference between these
two squads is not the reality based on this pointspread. In their
only game this season against a top caliber defense, the Patriots
managed only 24 points in a narrow win at Indianapolis. The Steelers
defense will present an even bigger challenge. Also, the winter
weather should help an underdog team with a solid defense like the
Steelers. Ultimately, the goal for New England is to win. Even if it
is by one point, the mind set is to stay perfect. So, Pittsburgh just
needs to be competitive to cash a ticket. The Steelers will not be
intimated by facing the Patriots on the road. Most of the title club
from 2005 is still intact. Pittsburgh won three road games in the
postseason to capture the AFC title en route to their Super Bowl
crown. New England stays perfect but the Steelers keep this one in
single digits in a game that will have plenty of playoff type intensity.


ERIN RYNNING
BEST BET
San Diego at Tennessee +1 O/U 41
Recommendation: Tennessee
The Chargers will make the cross-country voyage this Sunday with
a trip to Nashville to face the Titans. This will serve as the second
straight ?early Sunday game for the West Coast men of San Diego.
Of course, last week they?re victorious against division rival Kansas
City as the Chiefs are struggling mightily in the second half of the
campaign. The Chargers really found the middle of the line worth
attacking with star running back LaDainian Tomlinson, while they
garnered 191 yards on the ground. However, against this Titan?s defensive
front with the return of Albert Haynesworth it will be much
tougher sledding. With Haynesworth in game there?s no question
the Titans have proven they?re as good as any run defense in the
NFL this season. Now, when you can at least slow down the run of
the Chargers, the onus falls on quarterback Philip Rivers. Rivers
still has difficulty carrying this football team offensively. Note, the
Chargers have been fortunate of late in the turnover department.
In fact, they?re +16 in turnovers during their 6-2 run. I just don?t
believe this team is still as overwhelming as they were at times last
year. Meanwhile, the Titans ?woke up? out of their three game slumber
in the second half of last week?s Houston game. The offense finally
clicked once again, while the same can be said of the defense.
The Chargers simply won?t be able to bully this Titans team, while
the Titans remember last year?s debacle in San Diego losing 40-7.



JARED KLEIN
BEST BET
San Diego at Tennessee +1 O/U 41
Recommendation: Tennessee
The Tennessee Titans host the San Diego Chargers this week
after finally getting back on track last weekend against the
Houston Texans. The big difference against the Texans was the
return of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth
consistently drew double and even triple teams that freed up
defensive ends Antwan Odom and Kyle Vanden Bosch to make
plays and consistently pressure both Matt Schaub and Sage
Rosenfels. It?s also no coincidence that the Titans didn?t give
up over 100 yards rushing through the first eight games of the
season. Haynesworth is the key and while he and the Tennessee
Titans? defense will have their hands full against LaDainian
Tomlinson and the Chargers? offense, the Titans will be up to
the task as they have the sixth-best total defense in the NFL
and are seventh in stopping the run, giving up just 93.9 yards
per game. The Chargers have won three out of their last four
games, but when you take a closer look at how they?ve beaten
teams it?s been due to turnover margin just like last week where
they forced four turnovers against an inept Kansas City offense.
The Titans? offense is much more of a threat with Vince Young,
who had a great game against Houston last week completing
21-of-31 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns, and the Titans?
fifth-best rushing attack. The Titans should be able to take
advantage of San Diego who makes the cross country trip to
Nashville after beating division foe Kansas City last weekend.



ED CASH
BEST BET
San Diego at Tennessee +1 O/U 41
Recommendation: Tennessee
The Chargers are back in control of the AFC West at 7-5, but only
because everyone else in the division is so bad. They have won
their last two games over Baltimore and Kansas City only because
those offenses are so bad, even worse than what the San
Diego offense has become. Phillip Rivers looks like he is back at
NC State during his freshman year and has just one 300-yard
game all year. LT is also having a down year, his only three good
games have been against Denver, Oakland and KC, three poor
run defenses. Somehow, the Chargers are 7-5, with only one win
over a winning team, and that came only because Peyton Manning
threw six picks with half of his offense on the sidelines. Tennessee
is also 7-5, breaking a three-game skid last week with a win over
Houston. The Titan defense has been banged up, but with Albert
Haynesworth back in the lineup, they were better last week against
Houston and should be in even better shape this week. Also, Vince
Young has played four pretty good games in a row very quietly
and seems to be maturing as a passer. Too bad he doesn?t get any
help from his receivers or he would be even better. Bottom line:
Tennessee is the better team here, they are at home, and they
are getting a point. Count me in on that deal anytime. Take the
Titans to hand Rivers and the Chargers their sixth loss of the year



DONNIE BLACK
BEST BET
Tampa Bay at Houston +1 O/U 40
Recommendation: Houston
Tampa Bay got a near flawless performance from backup QB Luke
McCown last week as he relieved Jeff Garcia and Bruce Gradkowski
(who was largely ineffective in relief himself two weeks ago). Mc-
Cown completed 29-of-37 passes for 313 yards and led the team to
three TDs including the game winner with 14 seconds left to all but
cash their ticket as NFC South Champions. The Bucs, behind their
second ranked scoring defense, outgained the Saints last week by
over 220 yards, but they should feel fortunate to have come away
with a win after recovering a fumble on an ill-advised reverse play
late in the fourth quarter, and converting on fourth down later in
the ensuing game winning drive. But they can?t possibly expect
another performance like that from their QB, even if Jeff Garcia
returns (at less than 100%) and they certainly can?t expect a
gift wrapped win on the road once again. Houston may be without
Matt Schaub but Sage Rosenfels has shown good chemistry with
his wideouts in spot duty thus far, and has actually posted numbers
comparable to Schaub (83.9 QB rating vs. 87.2). Look for
the Texans to come up big after back-to-back road losses as Tampa
takes a breather with their playoff berth all but guaranteed.



ROB VENO
BEST BET
Arizona at Seattle -7 O/U 45
Recommendation: Seattle
The Cardinals? pass defense, which has been dissected at will by
their last four opponents, is in for a methodical torching here.
The 237 yards allowed through the air by Arizona to the pathetic
49ers passing attack a couple weeks ago put the ultimate red
flag on this recent month long span which has now seen the Cards
allow 1,119 aerial yards or 280 per game. With Seahawks QB Matt
Hasselbeck distributing the wealth among his three and four wide
receiver sets, Arizona?s depth shy defensive backfield figures to
have trouble matching up. Adding to the Cardinals woes here will
be the fact that ?Hawks RB Shaun Alexander returned last week
and looked very good teaming with backfield mate Maurice Morris
to register a combined 129 rushing yards on a very wet field.
Seattle?s diversity will keep the Cardinals off balance all game
correlating into solid point production. Defensively, Seattle?s relentless
and speedy pass rush (second in the NFL with 36 sacks)
is likely to overwhelm the Cardinals porous offensive line (29
sacks allowed) and make things difficult for QB Kurt Warner. The
game carries importance for each of these divisional rivals but
favor the Seahawks in this situation whose 5-1 home record includes
a current 3-0 straight up and pointspread run. There?s also
a revenge factor here as Seattle endured a heartbreaking 23-20
loss to the Cardinals back on September 16 when Neil Rackers
hit a field goal with 1 second remaining. A victory here clinches
the NFC West for Seattle and expect them to get it by 14+.



BRENT CROW
BEST BET
Minnesota at San Francisco +7.5 O/U 45
Recommendation: San Francisco
The Vikings come into this game on a roll, winning three straight
over Oakland, New York and Detroit. Whereas they were a 4.5-
point home favorite over the Raiders three weeks ago, they
are now a full touchdown chalk over the 49ers on the road.
They have won their past two games by scores of 41-17 and
42-10 and super rookie running back Adrian Peterson is back
in the fold as well. On the other hand, San Francisco is 3-9 on
the year and is coming off a 31-14 loss to the Panthers. San
Francisco has the worst offense in the league and has scored
more than 17 points just twice all year, both times against Arizona.
Despite all of that, I like the underdog 49ers at home this
week. Minnesota now finds themselves in position to get into
the playoff race after their three-game win streak, which adds
pressure to their young quarterback. The 49ers have nothing
to play for but pride, and they have played with pride on defense
all year, especially at home. San Francisco has had a difficult
stretch lately, playing four of their last five games on the
road. Getting back to their place should ensure another good
effort from the defense, and if they can force a turnover or
two, they can win this game. The 49ers are 3-0 this year, (all
three of their wins) when they have a positive turnover ratio.


FAIRWAY JAY
BEST BET
Cleveland at NY Jets +3.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York
No, that wasn?t a misprint last week. The winless Dolphins (0-12)
were favored. And they got beat. Again. The Jets fit a very solid
late-season situation last week playing against a NFL home favorite
(Dolphins) of 3 or less when both teams are off a loss. Now, New
York returns to home turf off an underdog win as a disrespected
?Dog of a touchdown or less. This is a solid long-term winning
situation. Regular Fairway Followers know we cashed our NFL
Game-of-the-Year winner last week on Arizona over Cleveland.
The Browns defense is still a problem, dead last in the NFL allowing
390 ypg. Another area of concern is penalties, as the Browns
are the second most penalized team in the NFL (95 for 716 yards)
while the Jets have the second fewest penalties in the league (46
for 360 yards). The Browns mighty offense has ?only? produced 21
and 27 points the past two weeks against sub-par defenses. Meanwhile,
the Jets running game came to life last week with Thomas
Jones and Leon Washington rushing for over 140 yards. The offense
and quarterback Kellen Clemens is gaining confidence and
should use last week?s performance to ?Jet? them to continued
success against this poor Browns defense. The last time New York
played on this field, we cashed a big ?Dog winner with the Jets outright
victory over Pittsburgh. New York?s pass defense is an area
of concern in this match-up, but look for the Jets to continue their
move towards respectability against a Browns team that could
be feeling the ?Dawg collar around their neck down the stretch.




SONNY PALERMO
BEST BET
Kansas City +6.5 at Denver O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Kansas City
Missed using Denver last week, and I?m switching sides and going
against them this week. The loss to the Raiders knocked Denver
out of the hunt for the division title, maybe not mathematically,
but certainly realistically as they sit two games behind San Diego
with only four left to play. And the Oakland loss also leaves them
with no hope for a Wild Card spot either, as the Jags, Cleveland
and Buffalo all sit ahead of them - and all three won?t collapse
over the final weeks. What this leaves us with is a great spot to
play against a team who will be in quit mode and full of loathing
over the realization that their season is over. In this spot, the
Broncos return home, not as heroes but as goats, and no amount
of optimism can convince them they did not blow any chance for
the postseason with the two road losses to the Bears and Raiders
-- two games they should have won. The Chiefs? offense is not
much worse than Denver?s, while their defense is a whole lot better,
surrendering 100 points less on the season. Denver couldn?t
cover as a small favorite at Oakland, they?re now 1-4 as favorite
in ?07, and are in that role again, giving almost a TD here. Take
the Chiefs, in a game where we get a team that is 4-1 ATS on
the road in ?07, seeking revenge for an earlier loss at KC. Keep
in mind, they may not need ?em as they can win this one SU

 

[smax]

THANK YOU, SENOR

THANK YOU, SENOR

JUST A BUTTLOAD OF INFO TO READ AND DIGEST AND... I FOR ONE---

THANK YOU FOR ALL OF IT.

 

[Senor Capper]

:thumb:

 

[the duke]

Marc Lawerence Playbook


INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Carolina head coach John Fox is 18-1 ATS
in his career as a road dog vs. a < .777 foe
that scored 14 > points in its last game.

AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
15-1
FLOOR
13 PLAY AGAINST any Game 13
NFL team off back-to-back SUATS
wins if they scored 35 > pts and
won the last game by 10 > pts
versus a .454 > opponent.
PLAY AGAINST:
DALLAS COWBOYS

Sunday, December 9th

5* BEST BET
Jags return home off close-call loss against Indianapolis while
Panthers take to the road after romping past the 49ers last
Sunday. The major challenge at hand for Jack Del Rio?s club
will be in attempting to become the fi rst Jacksonville squad
in team history to bring home the bacon as a favorite in
games after taking on the mighty Colts (0-6 ATS). Meanwhile,
Carolina dresses up as a dog knowing they are 14-2-1 ATS as
road dogs against a foe off a loss. They are also 13-2 ATS as
road dogs in December. Toss in our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE
WEEK (page 2) and you have the makings of a live dog taking
on a dead favorite. We?ll take live over dead, every time.
Carolina over JACKSONVILLE by 3


4*BEST BET

Rematch of two division rivals that found the Eagles dropping
a 16-3 verdict earlier this season in New York as -2.5 point
favorites. In that loss Philly held the Giants to a season-low 212
yards, yet lost when they managed a season-low 190 yards of
offense in the contest. Andy Reid has been solid in revenge in
his NFL career, especially in division games (18-7-1). And he?s at
his best in revengers when taking on a sub .700 division foe as
his 17-5-1 ATS mark confi rms. Toss in the ?Black-n-Blue Factor?
(winning teams on the road the game after facing the Bears
are 1-7 ATS these past two seasons) and suddenly the Giants
look like a rotten apple ready to be tossed, especially off last
week?s dramatic comeback win over Chicago.
PHILADELPHIA over NY Giants by 13

3* BEST BET

Rather quietly the Seahawks have strung together a 4-0
SUATS streak and are suddenly riding high atop the NFC West
division. They can salt the Cardinals away with a win here
today, on a home fi eld where they?ve won 21 of their last 25
games. Added incentive comes from a 3-point loss at Arizona
on Week Two this season. Before you think about putting your
hard earned cabbage on Seattle, we suggest you take a long
look at the rest of the salad bar. For openers Arizona is 5-0
SUATS as a dog against an opponent off a SUATS win. They?re
also 9-0 ATS as dogs versus a division foe off a SUATS win. Toss
in Seattle?s 1-7 ATS mark at home in games off a double-digit
SU dog win and you now have a bountiful plate full of fi xins?
that will likely require a doggie bag to go!
Arizona over SEATTLE by 6

Totals
5* Lions Over
4*Philly Over
3*Pack Under

 

[Senor Capper]

MARK ALSO LIKES:

MIAMI +7.0

SAN DIEGO -1.5

 

[THE HITMAN]

Thanks, Senor