Winning Points
****BEST BET
MEMPHIS over MISSISSIPPI* by 6
Yes, this is the SEC vs. Conference USA. But in a series in which Memphis has
out-scored Ole Miss by 10 points over the last five years, going 2-3 SU and never
losing by more than four points, this back-yard rivalry is much closer than those
conference affiliations behind the programs. And with some serious matchup
advantages to the underdog it is difficult to see the favored Rebels even winning
here, much less getting any kind of margin. The key for the Tigers is a WR corps
that not only has plenty of talent and experience (there are seven returnees that
caught at least 19 passes last year), but also NFL-size; four of the top contributors
are 6-3 or taller, keyed by 6-8 Carlos Singleton, one of the best red-zone threats in
the nation (11 TD catches last year). That group can exploit a small Mississippi
secondary that does not have anyone taller than 5-11 on the two-deep, which
means plenty of open targets for Arkelon Hall in his first start as Tiger QB. And
while Houston Nutt would like to be able to shade his secondary a bit with a good
pass rush that is not in the cards either, with attrition already taking All-SEC DE
Greg Hardy, along with DT Peria Jerry and NT Ted Laurent, out of the Rebel rotation.
That makes it easy for a veteran Memphis OL to control the line of scrimmage
and ease their new QB into the flow of the game. Note that the Tigers led
30-19 in 1st downs and 467-275 in total offense of last year?s 23-21 loss in the
series, which says much about the balance of talent. MEMPHIS 33-27.
***BEST BET
ALABAMA over CLEMSON by 7 (Atlanta)
There are two ways to remember Nick Saban?s first season at Alabama. An optimist
can talk about how the Crimson Tide did not lose a single game by more than a
TD despite facing eight bowl opponents during the regular season, including
absolute point-blank defeats vs. Georgia and LSU in a pair of games that were literally
decided at the gun. A pessimist can say that going 7-6 and losing to ULMonroe
is hardly Alabama football. The truth is much more in the former camp,
with the Tide doing a lot of things right in what was mostly a transition season,
and now in the second go-round with the new coach and new playbooks we can
expect much more polish, the kind that could have turned several of those close
2007 defeats into victories. As such the opportunity to back them in an underdog
role vs. a team from a much weaker conference is hard to pass up. Although
Clemson has some ?pretty? talent in the skill positions that has led to high expectations,
remember that this is the same Tiger offense that could only manage 12
first downs and 293 yards in that bowl loss to Auburn, and that includes an overtime
possession. Now the Tigers have to break in an almost all-new OL, with only
one starter back, no seniors, and five freshmen in the two-deep. That makes it difficult
to get untracked vs. this class of defense, while their own DL, without key
DT Rashaad Jackson, will also lose the battle in the trenches. An underdog that
wins the line of scrimmage wins the game here. ALABAMA 27-20.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
Buffalo* over U.T.E.P. by 14 (Thursday)
Slowly but surely Turner Gill is making progress at Buffalo, with some solid
recruiting classes adding some speed and athleticism, and now a veteran cast in the
skill positions to execute the finer points keyed by QB Drew Willy (68.4% completions
last year, no interceptions in his final 235 attempts). It means that this
opener brings a higher level of optimism than usual, and against an opponent that
brings issues in terms of both cohesion and focus, the intensity of the Bulls can get
this one. The Miners have been slowly going downhill under Mike Price after he
inherited a veteran cast in his debut campaign, and now there are five new assistant
coaches, most on defense trying to put in those new 3-3-5 schemes. Making
the transition even more difficult is a lack of talent. But the real issue for Price is
keeping his Miners from being too distracted by next week?s major home showdown
vs. Texas, a rarity for the program. They can not win that one, of course, but
they do not know that. BUFFALO 38-24.
Rice* over S.M.U. by 14 (Friday)
The move of June Jones to S.M.U. is creating a lot of attention, including the
ESPN cameras showing up for his debut. It has also led to the oddsmakers setting
this one in a rather short range, assuming that the public buys into the notion of
Jones turning the downtrodden Mustangs around. That may happen, later, but for
now we may see a team actually get worse before they can get better, the usual
result when a young and inexperienced team that lacks a winning history has to
adjust to new systems. Exacerbating matters is that freshmen Bo Levi Mitchell and
Braden Smith will be sharing the snaps at QB, which means zero experience not
only in running the Jones playbook, but also in working with their teammates in
the WR corps. The Owls see plenty of spread tactics in Conference USA, which
helps to set their own game plan, and Chase Clement is the kind of veteran that
can take control of this one in the latter stages, especially against a Mustang defense
that returns only four starters. RICE 41-27.
Nebraska* over Western Michigan by 2
Bo Pelini looks like a good fit in Lincoln, and should be able to gradually turn
around that mistake that was the Bill Callahan regime. But the oddsmakers are
putting the cart before the horse. There will need to be major changes in both personnel
and attitude to turn around a defense that allowed more points, yards and
first downs than any in the history of the program, while also generating only 11
takeaways. Half of their 2007 opponents scored at least 40 points, and now an
entirely new LB corps has to make plays against a balanced Bronco attack that will
test their mettle. Having been to Florida State, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa and
Virginia (twice) in recent years, there is no culture shock in Lincoln for Bill Cubit?s
squad, and while the Broncos also bring disappointing defensive numbers from LY,
note that much of that could be attributed to a completely new scheme, and opening
against some of the best offenses in the nation. With nine starters back that
unit will show genuine improvement. NEBRASKA 30-28.
Pittsburgh* over Bowling Green by 25
The pieces are in place for a real statement to be made in Dave Wannstedt?s fourth
campaign in Pittsburgh, and an off-season that was buoyed from that confidence
boost of winning in Morgantown to close last year can lead to a burst from the gate
here. We will buy in early, and get ahead of the game before the oddsmakers catch
up. The defense was already playing at a special level last year, and in LeSean
McCoy and LaRod Stephens-Howling there were a couple of outstanding runners.
What the Panthers lacked was any semblance of a passing attack, which could have
made a difference in the four games that were lost by four points or less. But add
QB Bill Stull and WR Derek Kinder to the mix and it becomes an entirely different
attack. That is bad news for an under-sized Bowling Green defense that had an
entirely different off-season, reeling from the stunning embarrassment of that 63-
7 bowl humiliation vs. Tulsa. It does not get much better here against a physical
opponent that will wear them down at the point of attack. PITTSBURGH 41-16
Miami O.* over Vanderbilt by 1 (Thursday)
The class difference between the conferences showed in a 24-13 Commodore
home win last year, when they controlled the line of scrimmage to a 290-26 rushing
count. But now the OL is entirely new, forcing an uninspiring QB rotation to
make something happen on the road. And a home date vs. South Carolina next
Thursday provides an additional distraction. MIAMI O. 20-19.
South Carolina* over N. C. State by 14 (Thursday)
This will be Steve Spurrier?s best team yet in Columbia, but it is the defense that
will key the way early, not the offense under developing QB Tommy Beecher. But
that veteran stop unit can create havoc for inexperienced Wolfpack QB Russell
Wilson, as Tom O?Brien gambles in his opener. SOUTH CAROLINA 30-16.
Wake Forest over Baylor* by 10 (Thursday)
We like Art Briles as a fit for Baylor, and some of the assistants that he has brought
on board. While the transitions will take time, they hang around here against an
opponent that will not physically dominate them. WAKE FOREST 34-24.
Stanford* over Oregon State by 1 (Thursday)
Not quite the usual Pac 10 affair here, with playmakers in short supply and uninspiring
QB play from both sides. But the opportunities are there for the Cardinal
to run the ball against that rebuilt Beaver front seven, and you can steal a win at
home that way. STANFORD 21-20.
Troy over Middle Tennessee* by 4 (Thursday)
Blue Raiders were an injury riddled side, including the absence of mercurial QB
Dwight Dasher, when they were embarrassed 45-7 on the Trojan turf last year. But
with only 10 seniors on the roster, is the leadership there for the late stages of a
close game? TROY 31-27.
Temple over Army* by 10 (Friday)
Owls won as many games LY as in the previous four seasons, and now return 21
starters and both kickers. That means the kind of continuity to get out of the gate
well. Cadets are an awful -29 in turnovers the past two seasons. Remember when
we used to play them because they were fundamentally sound? TEMPLE 30-20.
*CLOSE CALLS
Michigan* over Utah by 1
The Utes are tough enough in the trenches to not get pushed around at the line of
scrimmage, and in Brian Johnson the also have the kind of QB to run the spread
that Rich Rodriguez could only wish he had. MICHIGAN 23-22.
Northwestern* over Syracuse by 16
We are unaccustomed to dealing with the Wildcats in this kind of chalk range, but
in theory their spread attack should wreak havoc on those inexperienced Syracuse
LB and DB corps, especially with Tyrell Sutton fully healthy again. But is there a
killer instinct? NORTHWESTERN 37-21.
Wyoming* over Ohio by 8
Cowboys managed to beat the Bobcats on the road last year despite a -3 turnover
differential, which means something to us. But do they bring their ?A? game here
with a major revenge affair vs. Air Force to open conference play next week?
WYOMING 27-19.
Wisconsin* over Akron by 29
With only a home game vs. Marshall on deck the Badgers lack distractions, which
means that their physical ground game can wear out that 3-3-5 Akron defense that
lacks the personnel and the schemes to cope. WISCONSIN 42-13.
Oregon* over Washington by 11
Jake Locker is showing the kind of progress that could have him back to full health
by the time this one kicks off, giving the Huskies a significant edge at the QB position.
But is that the only one that they have? OREGON 34-23.
Tulsa over U.A.B.* by 17
The type of complex offensive schemes that the Golden Hurricanes run can be a
disaster for a defense that is relying on too many JuCo transfers, which means
chemistry and cohesion issues. And the experience at the other skill positions helps
Tulsa to ease their own QB transition. TULSA 41-24.
T.C.U. over New Mexico* by 10
This has a chance to be the best offense Gary Patterson has had in Fort Worth, and
perhaps the best LB corps. That latter group can make some plays vs. a re-built
New Mexico OL that can be prone to mental mistakes vs. blitzes. T.C.U. 27-17
Mississippi State over Louisiana Tech* by 11
Tech is putting a lot of hope on Taylor Bennett (Georgia Tech transfer) stepping
right in at QB, but he gets a rude baptism here against a State defense that brings
plenty of speed, depth, and orneriness. MISSISSIPPI STATE 27-16.
Boston College over Kent by 12 (Cleveland)
Golden Flashes saw injuries leave the cupboard bare enough for an 0-7 SU and
ATS slide to close 2007, including outright losses to Buffalo and Temple. That
means precious little confidence to begin this season, and also some culture shock
against that outstanding Eagle defensive front. BOSTON COLLEGE 28-16.
Oklahoma State over Washington State by 4 (Seattle)
With major transitions for both sides on defense (JuCo transfers for the Cowboys;
the new schemes of Paul Wulff for the Cougars), this ultimately gets decided by the
more polished and experienced O.S.U. skill players. OKLAHOMA STATE 31-27.
Minnesota* over Northern Illinois by 4
Although it is Big 10 vs. M.A.C., not sure the talent gap is all that wide here, with
the Huskies seeing their 2007 season get derailed by injuries, many of which cost
them some close games (0-5 in outcomes decided by five points or less). MINNESOTA
31-27.
Florida* over Hawaii by 36
Although hosting Miami next week can call for Urban Meyer to back off the pedal
a bit here, remember that he also is working on another Heisman for Tim Tebow,
and that means enough activity to get the requisite stats. They could find the end
zone on every series that he is in the game. FLORIDA 49-13.
Virginia Tech over East Carolina* by 6 (Charlotte)
Pirates are a scrappy 17-6 ATS as underdogs the last three seasons, including a solid
cover in this series at Blacksburg last year Not easy for the Hokies to get much of
a margin with injuries and inexperience limiting their RB and WR corps. VIRGINIA
TECH 26-20.
Missouri over Illinois by 6 (St. Louis)
Oddsmakers are pricing the Tigers like the talent gap is wider than we believe it to
be. But not in a hurry to buck a team with a chip on their shoulder, after they beat
the Illinois last year, yet had to watch them in the Rose Bowl after their own non-
BCS season had come to an end. MISSOURI 33-27.
California* over Michigan State by 1
Bears have been a long-term over-rated item, now sitting at 14-26-1 ATS in their
last 41 on the board, and for once are in a serious rebuilding mode at the RB and
WR corps, which has been the strength of the offense in recent campaigns.
Balanced Spartan offense will find room as Cal switches to those new 3-4 schemes
on defense. CALIFORNIA 28-27.
Southern Cal over Virginia* by 22
It looks like Mark Sanchez will be healthy enough to get the start at QB for the
Trojans, but the bottom line is that their #3 at the position might be better than
any passer on the Cavalier roster. That is true of other positions as well. SOUTHERN
CAL 34-12.
Arizona* over Idaho by 31
With only a home game vs. Toledo on deck, and with Mike Stoops feeling some
genuine pressure this season, the Wildcats may be more inclined to go for the jugular
in a setting like this than another program. ARIZONA 45-14.
U.N.L.V.* over Utah State by 11
Brent Guy and Mike Sanford both enter this one at 6-29 SU, but at least the latter
has some pieces to build with. Maybe not enough to be coaching the Rebels in
2009, but enough to get past an Aggie squad that just does not show any reasons
for optimism. U.N.L.V. 27-16.
Indiana* over Western Kentucky by 17
We welcome the Hilltoppers as a board item, and it is worth noting that Dave
Elson has been doing a lot of things on schedule in five years with the program,
including red-shirting a lot of freshmen in recent campaigns to build some depth.
INDIANA 37-20.
Auburn* over UL-Monroe by 23
Tommy Tuberville is supplied with a subtle motivational tool here, with ULMonroe
having gone to Alabama and won outright last year. But expect some
awkward moments for the Tigers offensively in their new no-huddle looks.
AUBURN 37-14.
Southern Miss* over Louisiana 8
The Cajuns have changed their name. So goodbye Lafayette from our data-base,
but are still basically the same thing on the field ? excellent ground game, and little
else. But that may be enough to hang around vs. a less-than-imposing Eagle
defense. SOUTHERN MISS 27-19.
Texas* over Florida Atlantic by 21
Howard Schnellenberger added a little spark here with discussions of ?toughness?
regarding this matchup, possibly creating a slight spark for an otherwise flat
favorite. But Longhorn secondary could be vulnerable to Rusty Smith and some
good WR?s working through the air from behind. TEXAS 38-17.
Kansas* over Florida International by 38
The Jayhawks did not take many prisoners in 2007, winning seven times by 30
points or more, and now bring even more swagger to the table. KANSAS 48-10
Texas A&M* over Arkansas State by 24
We like Mike Sherman as a good fit to bring better organization to an underachieving
program, but he and his staff have been open about their concerns on
the defensive side of the ball, where speed is not an Aggie asset right now. TEXAS
A&M 37-13.
Kansas State* over North Texas by 26
Todd Dodge appeared to be overmatched in his first season at North Texas, but
one of the reasons behind his hiring was the inevitability of his son Riley joining
the program at QB (Texas 5A Player of the Year after each of the last two seasons).
He may take the first of many career snaps here, but will struggle to get up to the
speed of play at this level. KANSAS STATE 48-22.
Louisville* over Kentucky by 1 (Sunday)
Both new quarterbacks, Hunter Cantwell and Mike Hartline, inherit big shoes,
but should be fine in time. For now we like Hartline?s supporting cast batter, and
that puts the underdog Wildcats firmly in this hunt to the final possession.
LOUISVILLE 27-26.
Colorado over Colorado State by 14 (Sunday at Denver)
In a series in which each of the last four meetings have been decided by four points
or less, this pointspread is making a statement about the directions of the programs.
And we believe those directions enough to not call for the usual barnburner.
COLORADO 30-16.
Rutgers* over Fresno State by 7 (Monday)
Bulldogs got some of their swagger back last year, but not the kind of physical
defense that we are accustomed to from Pat Hill ? even in a nine-win season they
allowed 5.1 per rush and only had 14 takeaways. Without getting push up front,
the secondary faces challenges against playmakers Tiquan Underwood and Kenny
Britt. RUTGERS 27-20.
Tennessee over U.C.L.A.* by 10 (Monday)
In time the recruiting of Rick Neuheisel, and tactical acumen of Norm Chow and
DeWayne Walker, can have the Bruin program offering Southern Cal a serious
local challenge. But that is in time, for now the absence of a legit starting QB
means problems against this class of opponent. TENNESSEE 29-19
Power Sweep
Week #1 2008
4* Wyoming over Ohio 38-13
3* USC over Virginia 35-7
3* W Michigan (+) over Nebraska 27-30
2* Louisiana Tech (+) over Miss State 20-23
2* Missouri over Illinois 34-21
2* Arkansas State (+) over Texas A&M 17-27
CKO
11* Fresno State
10* Syracuse
10* Florida
10* Michigan State
10 * Kentucky
Honorable Mention
Utah
Pitt
New Mexico
Colorado
****BEST BET
MEMPHIS over MISSISSIPPI* by 6
Yes, this is the SEC vs. Conference USA. But in a series in which Memphis has
out-scored Ole Miss by 10 points over the last five years, going 2-3 SU and never
losing by more than four points, this back-yard rivalry is much closer than those
conference affiliations behind the programs. And with some serious matchup
advantages to the underdog it is difficult to see the favored Rebels even winning
here, much less getting any kind of margin. The key for the Tigers is a WR corps
that not only has plenty of talent and experience (there are seven returnees that
caught at least 19 passes last year), but also NFL-size; four of the top contributors
are 6-3 or taller, keyed by 6-8 Carlos Singleton, one of the best red-zone threats in
the nation (11 TD catches last year). That group can exploit a small Mississippi
secondary that does not have anyone taller than 5-11 on the two-deep, which
means plenty of open targets for Arkelon Hall in his first start as Tiger QB. And
while Houston Nutt would like to be able to shade his secondary a bit with a good
pass rush that is not in the cards either, with attrition already taking All-SEC DE
Greg Hardy, along with DT Peria Jerry and NT Ted Laurent, out of the Rebel rotation.
That makes it easy for a veteran Memphis OL to control the line of scrimmage
and ease their new QB into the flow of the game. Note that the Tigers led
30-19 in 1st downs and 467-275 in total offense of last year?s 23-21 loss in the
series, which says much about the balance of talent. MEMPHIS 33-27.
***BEST BET
ALABAMA over CLEMSON by 7 (Atlanta)
There are two ways to remember Nick Saban?s first season at Alabama. An optimist
can talk about how the Crimson Tide did not lose a single game by more than a
TD despite facing eight bowl opponents during the regular season, including
absolute point-blank defeats vs. Georgia and LSU in a pair of games that were literally
decided at the gun. A pessimist can say that going 7-6 and losing to ULMonroe
is hardly Alabama football. The truth is much more in the former camp,
with the Tide doing a lot of things right in what was mostly a transition season,
and now in the second go-round with the new coach and new playbooks we can
expect much more polish, the kind that could have turned several of those close
2007 defeats into victories. As such the opportunity to back them in an underdog
role vs. a team from a much weaker conference is hard to pass up. Although
Clemson has some ?pretty? talent in the skill positions that has led to high expectations,
remember that this is the same Tiger offense that could only manage 12
first downs and 293 yards in that bowl loss to Auburn, and that includes an overtime
possession. Now the Tigers have to break in an almost all-new OL, with only
one starter back, no seniors, and five freshmen in the two-deep. That makes it difficult
to get untracked vs. this class of defense, while their own DL, without key
DT Rashaad Jackson, will also lose the battle in the trenches. An underdog that
wins the line of scrimmage wins the game here. ALABAMA 27-20.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
Buffalo* over U.T.E.P. by 14 (Thursday)
Slowly but surely Turner Gill is making progress at Buffalo, with some solid
recruiting classes adding some speed and athleticism, and now a veteran cast in the
skill positions to execute the finer points keyed by QB Drew Willy (68.4% completions
last year, no interceptions in his final 235 attempts). It means that this
opener brings a higher level of optimism than usual, and against an opponent that
brings issues in terms of both cohesion and focus, the intensity of the Bulls can get
this one. The Miners have been slowly going downhill under Mike Price after he
inherited a veteran cast in his debut campaign, and now there are five new assistant
coaches, most on defense trying to put in those new 3-3-5 schemes. Making
the transition even more difficult is a lack of talent. But the real issue for Price is
keeping his Miners from being too distracted by next week?s major home showdown
vs. Texas, a rarity for the program. They can not win that one, of course, but
they do not know that. BUFFALO 38-24.
Rice* over S.M.U. by 14 (Friday)
The move of June Jones to S.M.U. is creating a lot of attention, including the
ESPN cameras showing up for his debut. It has also led to the oddsmakers setting
this one in a rather short range, assuming that the public buys into the notion of
Jones turning the downtrodden Mustangs around. That may happen, later, but for
now we may see a team actually get worse before they can get better, the usual
result when a young and inexperienced team that lacks a winning history has to
adjust to new systems. Exacerbating matters is that freshmen Bo Levi Mitchell and
Braden Smith will be sharing the snaps at QB, which means zero experience not
only in running the Jones playbook, but also in working with their teammates in
the WR corps. The Owls see plenty of spread tactics in Conference USA, which
helps to set their own game plan, and Chase Clement is the kind of veteran that
can take control of this one in the latter stages, especially against a Mustang defense
that returns only four starters. RICE 41-27.
Nebraska* over Western Michigan by 2
Bo Pelini looks like a good fit in Lincoln, and should be able to gradually turn
around that mistake that was the Bill Callahan regime. But the oddsmakers are
putting the cart before the horse. There will need to be major changes in both personnel
and attitude to turn around a defense that allowed more points, yards and
first downs than any in the history of the program, while also generating only 11
takeaways. Half of their 2007 opponents scored at least 40 points, and now an
entirely new LB corps has to make plays against a balanced Bronco attack that will
test their mettle. Having been to Florida State, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa and
Virginia (twice) in recent years, there is no culture shock in Lincoln for Bill Cubit?s
squad, and while the Broncos also bring disappointing defensive numbers from LY,
note that much of that could be attributed to a completely new scheme, and opening
against some of the best offenses in the nation. With nine starters back that
unit will show genuine improvement. NEBRASKA 30-28.
Pittsburgh* over Bowling Green by 25
The pieces are in place for a real statement to be made in Dave Wannstedt?s fourth
campaign in Pittsburgh, and an off-season that was buoyed from that confidence
boost of winning in Morgantown to close last year can lead to a burst from the gate
here. We will buy in early, and get ahead of the game before the oddsmakers catch
up. The defense was already playing at a special level last year, and in LeSean
McCoy and LaRod Stephens-Howling there were a couple of outstanding runners.
What the Panthers lacked was any semblance of a passing attack, which could have
made a difference in the four games that were lost by four points or less. But add
QB Bill Stull and WR Derek Kinder to the mix and it becomes an entirely different
attack. That is bad news for an under-sized Bowling Green defense that had an
entirely different off-season, reeling from the stunning embarrassment of that 63-
7 bowl humiliation vs. Tulsa. It does not get much better here against a physical
opponent that will wear them down at the point of attack. PITTSBURGH 41-16
Miami O.* over Vanderbilt by 1 (Thursday)
The class difference between the conferences showed in a 24-13 Commodore
home win last year, when they controlled the line of scrimmage to a 290-26 rushing
count. But now the OL is entirely new, forcing an uninspiring QB rotation to
make something happen on the road. And a home date vs. South Carolina next
Thursday provides an additional distraction. MIAMI O. 20-19.
South Carolina* over N. C. State by 14 (Thursday)
This will be Steve Spurrier?s best team yet in Columbia, but it is the defense that
will key the way early, not the offense under developing QB Tommy Beecher. But
that veteran stop unit can create havoc for inexperienced Wolfpack QB Russell
Wilson, as Tom O?Brien gambles in his opener. SOUTH CAROLINA 30-16.
Wake Forest over Baylor* by 10 (Thursday)
We like Art Briles as a fit for Baylor, and some of the assistants that he has brought
on board. While the transitions will take time, they hang around here against an
opponent that will not physically dominate them. WAKE FOREST 34-24.
Stanford* over Oregon State by 1 (Thursday)
Not quite the usual Pac 10 affair here, with playmakers in short supply and uninspiring
QB play from both sides. But the opportunities are there for the Cardinal
to run the ball against that rebuilt Beaver front seven, and you can steal a win at
home that way. STANFORD 21-20.
Troy over Middle Tennessee* by 4 (Thursday)
Blue Raiders were an injury riddled side, including the absence of mercurial QB
Dwight Dasher, when they were embarrassed 45-7 on the Trojan turf last year. But
with only 10 seniors on the roster, is the leadership there for the late stages of a
close game? TROY 31-27.
Temple over Army* by 10 (Friday)
Owls won as many games LY as in the previous four seasons, and now return 21
starters and both kickers. That means the kind of continuity to get out of the gate
well. Cadets are an awful -29 in turnovers the past two seasons. Remember when
we used to play them because they were fundamentally sound? TEMPLE 30-20.
*CLOSE CALLS
Michigan* over Utah by 1
The Utes are tough enough in the trenches to not get pushed around at the line of
scrimmage, and in Brian Johnson the also have the kind of QB to run the spread
that Rich Rodriguez could only wish he had. MICHIGAN 23-22.
Northwestern* over Syracuse by 16
We are unaccustomed to dealing with the Wildcats in this kind of chalk range, but
in theory their spread attack should wreak havoc on those inexperienced Syracuse
LB and DB corps, especially with Tyrell Sutton fully healthy again. But is there a
killer instinct? NORTHWESTERN 37-21.
Wyoming* over Ohio by 8
Cowboys managed to beat the Bobcats on the road last year despite a -3 turnover
differential, which means something to us. But do they bring their ?A? game here
with a major revenge affair vs. Air Force to open conference play next week?
WYOMING 27-19.
Wisconsin* over Akron by 29
With only a home game vs. Marshall on deck the Badgers lack distractions, which
means that their physical ground game can wear out that 3-3-5 Akron defense that
lacks the personnel and the schemes to cope. WISCONSIN 42-13.
Oregon* over Washington by 11
Jake Locker is showing the kind of progress that could have him back to full health
by the time this one kicks off, giving the Huskies a significant edge at the QB position.
But is that the only one that they have? OREGON 34-23.
Tulsa over U.A.B.* by 17
The type of complex offensive schemes that the Golden Hurricanes run can be a
disaster for a defense that is relying on too many JuCo transfers, which means
chemistry and cohesion issues. And the experience at the other skill positions helps
Tulsa to ease their own QB transition. TULSA 41-24.
T.C.U. over New Mexico* by 10
This has a chance to be the best offense Gary Patterson has had in Fort Worth, and
perhaps the best LB corps. That latter group can make some plays vs. a re-built
New Mexico OL that can be prone to mental mistakes vs. blitzes. T.C.U. 27-17
Mississippi State over Louisiana Tech* by 11
Tech is putting a lot of hope on Taylor Bennett (Georgia Tech transfer) stepping
right in at QB, but he gets a rude baptism here against a State defense that brings
plenty of speed, depth, and orneriness. MISSISSIPPI STATE 27-16.
Boston College over Kent by 12 (Cleveland)
Golden Flashes saw injuries leave the cupboard bare enough for an 0-7 SU and
ATS slide to close 2007, including outright losses to Buffalo and Temple. That
means precious little confidence to begin this season, and also some culture shock
against that outstanding Eagle defensive front. BOSTON COLLEGE 28-16.
Oklahoma State over Washington State by 4 (Seattle)
With major transitions for both sides on defense (JuCo transfers for the Cowboys;
the new schemes of Paul Wulff for the Cougars), this ultimately gets decided by the
more polished and experienced O.S.U. skill players. OKLAHOMA STATE 31-27.
Minnesota* over Northern Illinois by 4
Although it is Big 10 vs. M.A.C., not sure the talent gap is all that wide here, with
the Huskies seeing their 2007 season get derailed by injuries, many of which cost
them some close games (0-5 in outcomes decided by five points or less). MINNESOTA
31-27.
Florida* over Hawaii by 36
Although hosting Miami next week can call for Urban Meyer to back off the pedal
a bit here, remember that he also is working on another Heisman for Tim Tebow,
and that means enough activity to get the requisite stats. They could find the end
zone on every series that he is in the game. FLORIDA 49-13.
Virginia Tech over East Carolina* by 6 (Charlotte)
Pirates are a scrappy 17-6 ATS as underdogs the last three seasons, including a solid
cover in this series at Blacksburg last year Not easy for the Hokies to get much of
a margin with injuries and inexperience limiting their RB and WR corps. VIRGINIA
TECH 26-20.
Missouri over Illinois by 6 (St. Louis)
Oddsmakers are pricing the Tigers like the talent gap is wider than we believe it to
be. But not in a hurry to buck a team with a chip on their shoulder, after they beat
the Illinois last year, yet had to watch them in the Rose Bowl after their own non-
BCS season had come to an end. MISSOURI 33-27.
California* over Michigan State by 1
Bears have been a long-term over-rated item, now sitting at 14-26-1 ATS in their
last 41 on the board, and for once are in a serious rebuilding mode at the RB and
WR corps, which has been the strength of the offense in recent campaigns.
Balanced Spartan offense will find room as Cal switches to those new 3-4 schemes
on defense. CALIFORNIA 28-27.
Southern Cal over Virginia* by 22
It looks like Mark Sanchez will be healthy enough to get the start at QB for the
Trojans, but the bottom line is that their #3 at the position might be better than
any passer on the Cavalier roster. That is true of other positions as well. SOUTHERN
CAL 34-12.
Arizona* over Idaho by 31
With only a home game vs. Toledo on deck, and with Mike Stoops feeling some
genuine pressure this season, the Wildcats may be more inclined to go for the jugular
in a setting like this than another program. ARIZONA 45-14.
U.N.L.V.* over Utah State by 11
Brent Guy and Mike Sanford both enter this one at 6-29 SU, but at least the latter
has some pieces to build with. Maybe not enough to be coaching the Rebels in
2009, but enough to get past an Aggie squad that just does not show any reasons
for optimism. U.N.L.V. 27-16.
Indiana* over Western Kentucky by 17
We welcome the Hilltoppers as a board item, and it is worth noting that Dave
Elson has been doing a lot of things on schedule in five years with the program,
including red-shirting a lot of freshmen in recent campaigns to build some depth.
INDIANA 37-20.
Auburn* over UL-Monroe by 23
Tommy Tuberville is supplied with a subtle motivational tool here, with ULMonroe
having gone to Alabama and won outright last year. But expect some
awkward moments for the Tigers offensively in their new no-huddle looks.
AUBURN 37-14.
Southern Miss* over Louisiana 8
The Cajuns have changed their name. So goodbye Lafayette from our data-base,
but are still basically the same thing on the field ? excellent ground game, and little
else. But that may be enough to hang around vs. a less-than-imposing Eagle
defense. SOUTHERN MISS 27-19.
Texas* over Florida Atlantic by 21
Howard Schnellenberger added a little spark here with discussions of ?toughness?
regarding this matchup, possibly creating a slight spark for an otherwise flat
favorite. But Longhorn secondary could be vulnerable to Rusty Smith and some
good WR?s working through the air from behind. TEXAS 38-17.
Kansas* over Florida International by 38
The Jayhawks did not take many prisoners in 2007, winning seven times by 30
points or more, and now bring even more swagger to the table. KANSAS 48-10
Texas A&M* over Arkansas State by 24
We like Mike Sherman as a good fit to bring better organization to an underachieving
program, but he and his staff have been open about their concerns on
the defensive side of the ball, where speed is not an Aggie asset right now. TEXAS
A&M 37-13.
Kansas State* over North Texas by 26
Todd Dodge appeared to be overmatched in his first season at North Texas, but
one of the reasons behind his hiring was the inevitability of his son Riley joining
the program at QB (Texas 5A Player of the Year after each of the last two seasons).
He may take the first of many career snaps here, but will struggle to get up to the
speed of play at this level. KANSAS STATE 48-22.
Louisville* over Kentucky by 1 (Sunday)
Both new quarterbacks, Hunter Cantwell and Mike Hartline, inherit big shoes,
but should be fine in time. For now we like Hartline?s supporting cast batter, and
that puts the underdog Wildcats firmly in this hunt to the final possession.
LOUISVILLE 27-26.
Colorado over Colorado State by 14 (Sunday at Denver)
In a series in which each of the last four meetings have been decided by four points
or less, this pointspread is making a statement about the directions of the programs.
And we believe those directions enough to not call for the usual barnburner.
COLORADO 30-16.
Rutgers* over Fresno State by 7 (Monday)
Bulldogs got some of their swagger back last year, but not the kind of physical
defense that we are accustomed to from Pat Hill ? even in a nine-win season they
allowed 5.1 per rush and only had 14 takeaways. Without getting push up front,
the secondary faces challenges against playmakers Tiquan Underwood and Kenny
Britt. RUTGERS 27-20.
Tennessee over U.C.L.A.* by 10 (Monday)
In time the recruiting of Rick Neuheisel, and tactical acumen of Norm Chow and
DeWayne Walker, can have the Bruin program offering Southern Cal a serious
local challenge. But that is in time, for now the absence of a legit starting QB
means problems against this class of opponent. TENNESSEE 29-19
Power Sweep
Week #1 2008
4* Wyoming over Ohio 38-13
3* USC over Virginia 35-7
3* W Michigan (+) over Nebraska 27-30
2* Louisiana Tech (+) over Miss State 20-23
2* Missouri over Illinois 34-21
2* Arkansas State (+) over Texas A&M 17-27
CKO
11* Fresno State
10* Syracuse
10* Florida
10* Michigan State
10 * Kentucky
Honorable Mention
Utah
Pitt
New Mexico
Colorado
