CkO
10 ARIZONA STATE over Texas
Late Score Forecast:
ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 30
Holiday Bowl at San Diego, Calif.
(Thursday, December 27, 2007)
Despite struggling as a favorite down the stretch, can?t help but be impressed by Arizona State?s performance
this season under first-year HC Dennis Erickson. The Sun Devils went 10-2, losing only to USC and a fullstrength
Oregon side ranked 4th in the country at the time. ASU QB Rudy Carpenter (career 252 ypg passing, 40
TDs, only 10 ints.) figures to have some success facing a Texas defense that ranked 109th against the pass,
allowing 278 ypg passing. Sun Devil RBs Keegan Herring & Dimitri Nance combined for 1268 YR, so the attack
has balance. The Longhorns were just 4-3 SU against bowl teams, and have covered just 3 of last 10 away from
Austin. Expect a shootout, but ASU?s tougher defense tips the scale.
10 *LSU over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast:
*LSU 31 - Ohio State 16
BCS Championship Game
at New Orleans, Louisiana
(Monday, January 7, 2008)
Yes, Ohio State greatly motivated after its smashing by Florida in LY?s title game. But this is a different Buckeye
team. Excellent defense, yes. But OSU has less speed at QB and WR this season. And it still has to deal with
that 51-day layoff since its last victory way back on Nov. 17 at Ann Arbor vs. the crippled Wolverines. Meanwhile,
CKO insiders tell us LSU has mended well during its layoff, with sr. QB Matt Flynn (missed SEC title game
with shoulder injury) expected to start, A-A DT Glenn Dorsey able to rest and treat his ailing knee and back, and
the WR corps finally nearly 100%. And now that elusive backup QB Ryan Perrilloux has big-game experience,
you can be sure he will have his own ?speed? package to keep the OSU defense guessing. The Tigers? ?press
coverage? worked vs. Tennessee; it should work in New Orleans too.
TOTALS: UNDER (4 in the Maryland-Oregon State game [Emerald Bowl, Dec. 28, AT&T Park in San Francisco]?Both defenses are strong & aggressive,
but rival QBs young...UNDER (54) in the Fresno State-Georgia Tech game [Humanitarian Bowl, Dec. 31 in Boise]?Fresno?s top RB Mathews is injured;
blitzes of Tech interim HC Tenuta are relentless.
..OVER (60) in the Michigan-Florida game [Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1 in Orlando]?Gators? spread too speedy
for Wolverine defense, while QB Henne & RB Hart healthier now than much of the regular season...OVER (60) in the Ball State-Rutgers game [International
Bowl, Jan. 5 at the Rogers Centre in Toronto]?Cardinal defense can?t stop Ray Rice indoors, but Ball State offense is underappreciated.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-rated games): HOUSTON (+7) over Indianapolis (NFL)?Sage Rosenfels 3-0 as a starter; Colts holding out injured starters
for the playoffs...BUFFALO (+3) vs. N.Y. Giants (NFL)?Bills 5-1 as home dog TY, with only loss to N.E.; Giants lose TE Shockey...TEXAS A&M over Penn
State [Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29 in San Antonio]?McGee?s option ability keeps Nittany Lions off balance; game taking place in ?Aggie country?...AUBURN (+2)
over Clemson [Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31 at Atlanta]?Tuberville?s defense, STs, sr. QB, SEC pedigree add up to small upset...OKLAHOMA (-8?) vs. West
Virginia [FIESTA BOWL, Jan. 2 in Glendale, AZ]?Rodriguez headed to Michigan; Sooners saw the spread all year in the Big XII and want to wipe out the
memory of LY?s Fiesta loss to Boise.
Pointwise Bowl Games
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-6) vs INDIANA (7-5)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
5:30 PM EST -- NFL NETWORK TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Okla St ........ 46.2 .. 33-29 .. 21-20 .. 246-155 .. 238-292 .. - 1 . Okla St
Indiana ....... 40.5 .. 32-27 .. 18-19 .. 156-159 .. 238-239 .. + 0 . by 3.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the first time in 14 years (45-20 loss to Virginia Tech in '93 Independence),
the Hoosiers of Indiana grace the bowl scene. They followed that loss to the
Hokies with a 6-5 record in '94, but then suffered through 12 consecutive
losing campaigns, before managing a 7-5 season this year. Lynch (for the
stricken Hoeppner) became the first head coach in program history to reach a
bowl game in his first season. The key to the Hoosiers' season, was its quick
start vs non-conference foes Indiana St, Western Michigan, & Akron, winning
by a combined score of 133-58. No, not the toughest of competition, but just
what Indy, & its 16 returning starters needed, in shaking a losing attitude.
They couldn't stay with Illinois, Mich St, or Wisconsin (112-44 pt deficit), but
their 2 other losses came by just 6 & 3 pts, vs 8-4 Penn St, & at 6-6 Northwestern.
However, check 288-134, 368-22, 192-68, 279-145, & 165-94 RY deficits
in their 5 losses. Hardly enough for QB Lewis (61%), along with his 2,839 yds
& 26 TDs to overcome. And that spells trouble vs an Oklahoma State Cowboy
team which sports not only the land's 9th ranked offense, but 7th best rushing
game, behind do-it-all QB Robinson (2,522 yds, 20 TDs passing; 777 yds, 7
TDs rushing). The 'Pokes scored at least 39 pts in each of their 6 wins, &
have now topped 40 pts 10 times the past 2 years. Thus, defense has to be
their bane, & so it is, ranking 104th overall, & 116th vs the pass, so Lewis has
to be licking his chops. Thus, a barnburner is almost a certainty. In an oddity,
the Hoosiers recorded the only shutout in this bowl's history (24-0 vs Baylor in
'91, when it was known as the Copper Bowl). This should be exact opposite.
PROPHECY: OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Indiana 30 RATING: 3
CLEMSON (9-3) vs AUBURN (8-4)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Clemson ..... 44.1 .. 34-18 .. 19-15 .. 147-106 .. 231-168.. +11 . Clemson
Auburn ....... 47.3 .. 24-17 .. 18-17 .. 154-119 .. 174-179.. + 1 . by 7.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Defense! This one matches a pair of perennial bowl participants, who meet
for the first time since the Tigers (or War Eagles) of Auburn took the measure
of the Tigers of Clemson, 21-17, in the '97 Peach Bowl, which, incidentally, is
the former name of this bowl. And doesn't that seem a logical score for this
contest? When the dust settled, the Tigers ranked 6th in the land in total "D",
8th in scoring "D", 19th vs the run, & 13th vs the pass. Solid credentials. But
the Eagles weren't far behind, ranking 8th, 6th, 25th, & 6th, in those columns,
respectively. So pts will be at a premium. However, if a team is to break out,
offensively, then Clemson would be the obvious choice. CU has exploded for
at least 42 pts on 5 occasions, with 2 of those marks posted vs bowl teams:
70-14 vs Central Michigan, & 44-10 vs Wake Forest. They are led by one of
the more pleasant surprises, QB Harper, who ranks 17th in the nation, as well
as 1st in the ACC in QB ratings, with a 67% pct, & 2,887 yds, along with 27 TD
passes, & just 6 INTs. Davis & Spiller have been "go-to" backs, while Kelly (84
receptions) is a force. The Eagles have been among the elites for ages, &, as
noted above, can take almost any foe out of its game. They thrive in the dog
role, covering 7-of-8 in that rare designation, over the past 4 years. If they are
at a disadvantage here, it is their penchant for the turnover, which has seen a
combined minus 11 in 3 of their 4 losses (5-0 deficit vs So Fla, 5-1 deficit vs
Miss St, 4-2 deficit vs Georgia). Though a veteran, sr QB Cox threw for only 9
TDs this season, while tossing 12 INTs. Thus, the QB edge seems to favor
Clemson, & that may decide it. Hate bucking AU as a dog, but this a CU call.
PROPHECY: CLEMSON 24 - Auburn 17 RATING: 6
TENNESSEE (9-4) vs WISCONSIN (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
11:00 AM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Tennessee .. 45.7 .. 33-28 .. 20-20 .. 145-163 .. 255-245 .. + 6 . Tennessee
Wisconsin .. 42.1 .. 30-23 .. 19-15 .. 182-136 .. 192-188 .. - 3 . by 1.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
That's right, these 2 have already met in a bowl game, namely the '81 Garden
State Bowl, when the Volunteers of Tennessee (-7?) won over the Badgers of
Wisconsin, 28-21. Who could ever forget it? Anyway, the stats were even in
that contest, with the Badgers covering on a late pass, despite suffering a 4-0
TO deficit. For the Vols, this has been the season of the home field success,
in direct contrast to the fortunes of the host in UT games over the previous 6
campaigns. As a matter of fact, the homer covered 9-of-12 games involving
the Vols, over the course of the regular season, with 2 of those misses by 5 pts
& ? pt. Home routs of 35-14 over Georgia (22-pt cover), & 34-13 over Arkansas
(21-pt cover), holding those powers to a combined 3.2 ypr, were the season's
high points, but remember that 2 of their 3 losses came by 39 pts (Florida) &
24 pts (Alabama): 31? & 24 pt ATS losses. QB Ainge has been superb, with
29 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,157 yds, & 63%. His 300 completions have snapped the
UT record of 287 by Peyton Manning in '97. RB Foster (1,107 yd) & WR Taylor
(1,000 receiving yds), also represent potent weapons. The Badgers visit the
bowl scene for the 6th straight year, & 11th in the last dozen seasons. They
have normally done it overland, with this year no exception, as they rank 19th
in the nation in running, with Hill their main threat the past 2 seasons (2,649
yds & 29 TDs), but he won't be available for this contest (leg), & that spells
trouble, despite QB Donovan finishing 4th among Big Ten passers. Fact of the
matter is that this Wisky edition just isn't as overpowering as recent Badger
squads, allowing >30 pts 6 times, & they haven't covered on the road all year.
PROPHECY: TENNESSEE 31 - Wisconsin 20 RATING: 3
MISSOURI (11-2) vs ARKANSAS (8-4)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
11:30 AM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Missouri ..... 47.0 .. 40-25 .. 25-20 .. 165-119 .. 328-262 .. +11 . Missouri
Arkansas .... 42.2 .. 40-26 .. 19-19 .. 297-148 .. 161-211 .. + 6 . by 2.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
Just a month ago, the Tigers of Missouri were hoping to land a spot in the BCS
Championship game, as they were ranked #1 in the nation, before losing to
Oklahoma, 38-17, in the Big 12 title contest. That game, by the way, was the
only one in which Mizzou failed to reach at least 31 pts this season. As a
matter of fact, the Tigers had averaged a blazing 42 ppg in their 13 lined
contests, previous to that failure vs the Sooners. Led by Jr QB Chase Daniel,
who finished 4th in the Heisman voting (69.7%, 4,170 yds, 33 TDs, & only 10
INTs), the Tigers have been a major story all season. Ranked a mere 32nd on
our "Polls" column at the season's onset, with only 1 publication ranking them
in the Top 25, they barely escaped Illinois in their opener, but prevailed, thanks
to 5 Illini TOs. But the machine was revved, with 548, 619, 581, & 606 yds in
the next 4 contests, before being derailed by Oklahoma (who else?). They
were the only team to take the measure of then 2nd-ranked Kansas (519-391
yd edge), & their 55-10 road demolition of a decent Colorado squad (598-196
yd edge) is the stuff of legends. Thus, the Razorbacks of Arkansas will have
their hands full, in trying to stay with this offensive juggernaut. But the Hogs
have the irrepressible McFadden in their arsenal. He has run for an astronomical
4,485 yds & 40 TDs the past 3 years, ranking 31st, 10th, & 4th in ball
toting since '05. He blitzed LSU for 206 yds in Arkies' season-ending upset of
mighty LSU, & how about an incredible 323 RYs (9.2 ypr), in the Hogs' 48-36
win over South Carolina? Simply awesome. Even with the departure of coach
Houston Nutt, the Arkies fear no one. Tiger disappointment may be the edge.
PROPHECY: ARKANSAS 34 - Missouri 33 RATING: 5
FLORIDA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN (8-4)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Florida ........ 46.6 .. 43-26 .. 22-18 .. 199-104 .. 259-258 .. + 1 . Florida
Michigan .... 43.1 .. 26-20 .. 19-15 .. 162-131 .. 185-159 .. + 8 . by 14.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
What a match! Just the 2nd between these collegiate gridiron behemoths,
the Wolverines of Michigan, & the defending national champion Gators of
Florida. Their 1st meeting took place in the '02 Outback Bowl, with Michigan
(+1) prevailing 38-30. The Wolves have dropped 4 bowl games since, & have
allowed 33 ppg in their last 9 holiday classics. Not exactly what is expected
from squad which is known for its rock-ribbed defense. A year ago, the Gators
made it look easy, in their 41-14 BCS title rout of Ohio St (31-pt cover), & the
Wolves made it look difficult in that 32-18 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl (13-pt
ATS setback). But despite those outcomes, we still feel that the Wolves were
jobbed from a return shot at the Buckeyes. No doubt, they still feel the same.
But is that added incentive enough to propel them past the awesome Gators,
who somehow lost 3 times this season? Florida opened more than few eyes
in its unheard of 59-20 rout of Tennessee, & wound up the season on a 4-gm
run, both SU & ATS, despite a "D", which allowed 33 ppg in its final 4 SEC tilts.
The Gator are led, of course, by Heisman winner, soph Tim Tebow, who set all
kinds of QB records with 29 passing, & 22 running TDs. Try 68.5% & just 6
INTs. The Wolves opened with that shocking loss to Appalachian St, followed
by a 39-7 home loss to Oregon (624-365 RY deficit), but then 8 straight wins,
before losses to Wisconsin & Ohio St: 40-25 FD & 756-411 yd deficits! Hart
has been a stalwart at RB for 4 years, but managed only 2.8 ypr in LY's Rose
Bowl. QB Henne & WR Mannigham are threats, to be sure, but Gator coach
Urban Meyer has simply shined in bowl contests. Florida, despite huge spot.
PROPHECY: FLORIDA 41 - Michigan 21 RATING: 1
GEORGIA (10-2) vs HAWAII (12-0)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
8:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Georgia ...... 47.1 .. 32-21 .. 18-17 .. 179-120 .. 200-205 .. + 4 . Georgia
Hawaii ......... 34.3 .. 46-23 .. 27-21 .... 81-140 .. 442-210 .. - 1 . by 5.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
This contest features yet another 2-loss team which feels that it has been
jobbed out of the BCS Title Game (the Georgia Bulldogs), facing major college
football's lone unbeaten team, which is thrilled to be here (the Hawaii Rainbow
Warriors). The 'Dawgs are, of course, one of the true elite squads in the land,
with a combined 63-15 record over the past 6 years, and making it to 34 bowl
games since the '66 season, with this marking their 11th straight season with
a bowl reward. And try 22 New Year's Day games. This year edition hardly
began with any flourish, as Georgia stood at just 4-2, after a thrashing at the
hands of the Vols of Tennessee, with 1 of those 4 wins by just 3 pts, in an OT
game vs eventual 6-6 Alabama. QB Stafford is the trigger, finishing as the 5th
rated passer in the SEC with 2,348 yds & 18 TDs, but Moreno is the engine
(2nd to McFadden in SEC RYs) in the 'Dawgs' 6-0 windup. Check 188 yds in
the Bulldogs' shockingly easy win over Florida (19? pt cover). Yep, a 6-game
run to wind it up, & the 4th slot in the national rankings, but no BCS cigar. For
the 10th-ranked & perfect Rainbows, this one represents the apex. June Jones'
overhead barrages have been near unstoppable for the last 7 years, but this
edition is assuredly his best. The 'Bows have been challenged, to be sure, but
at season's end, they again led the nation in scoring at 46.2 ppg, down a bit
from LY's 46.8 ppg. They are led, of course, by the brilliant Colt Brennan, who
has thrown 131 TDs the past 3 years, to a bevy of top-notch receivers, such
as Grice-Mullen, Bess, & Rivers. This squad defines the word "explosive".
Can Hawaii be this year's Boise St? Absolutely. Fireworks & another upset.
PROPHECY: HAWAII 38 Georgia 26 Rating 2
VIRGINIA (9-3) vs Texas Tech (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas Tech . 42.0 .. 42-26 .. 25-19 .... 65-177 .. 476-196.. - 6 . Tex Tech
Virginia ....... 41.1 .. 24-19 .. 16-15 .. 127-115 .. 203-210.. + 3 . by 4.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Here we go again! The Raiders of Texas Tech compete in their 8th straight
bowl game, in the 8 years of Mike Leach's tutelage. And what an offense the
Raiders display, especially with their aerial fireworks, where they've ranked
#1, #1, #1, #1, #3, & #1 the past 6 years. Junior Graham Harrell has inherited
the mantle from earlier Tech flingers Kingsbury, Symons, Cumbie, & Hodges.
In his 2 years over center, he has thrown for 9,953 yds & 83 TDs! Not exactly
the type of opponent one aspires to face in a bowl contest. The Raiders swept
past Clemson, 55-15, in the '02 Tangerine (35-pt cover); Navy, 38-14, in the
'03 Houston (11? pt cover), & California, 45-31, in the '04 Holiday (3-pt cover).
So an automatic play, right. Not quite, as they were held to a mere 10 pts in a
13-10 loss to Alabama in the '05 Cotton (6-pt ATS loss), & needed the largest
comeback in bowl history for a 44-41 OT win over Minnesota in the '06 Insight
(3? pt ATS loss). By the way, Tech came from 38-7 down, halfway thru the
3rd. So, still a scintillating attack, but hardly an obvious "go-with" bowl play.
But, when the Raiders are on their game, they are dynamite. The Cavs return
to the bowl scene, after LY's expected miss, following the departure of Groh's
offensive & defensive coordinators. Virginia opened the year with a miserable
5 FD, 7 RY, 110 TY display in a 23-3 loss at Wyoming, but has fallen just twice
since, by 5 at NCSt, & by 12 at VaTech. Five wins by 3 pts or less, but also a
pair of impressive 30 & 48 pt romps over Pittsburgh & Miami. The Cavs shine
on "D", where they rank 18th (11th in scoring "D"). But containing Harrell,
Crabtree (21 TD catches), & Co, is another matter. But not a "1" call anymore.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 33 - Virginia 24 RATING: 6
10-2) vs ILLINOIS (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
5:00 EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
USC ............ 40.3 .. 31-16 .. 21-16 .. 186- 79 ... 233-180 .. - 1 . USC
Illinois ......... 43.5 .. 30-29 .. 19-19 .. 266-115 .. 157-241 .. + 1 . by 10.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
Just 3 years ago, Ron Zook left the Florida Gators as a failed successor to the
legendary Steve Spurrier, when they suffered through 5-loss seasons in each
of his 3 years at the Gainesville helm. Well, it didn't take the Fighting Illini of
Illinois long to snag him. And what a coup it has turned out to be, with Illinois
making it all the way back from a combined 8-38 record from '03-'06, to a spot
in the Grandaddy Bowl. Plain & simple, Zook has recruited well. Led by the
elusive Juice Williams at QB (1,498 PYs, 774 PYs), & the running of Mendenhall
(1,526 yds, 6.2 ypr, 16 TDs), the Illini have come from 47th, to 10th, to 5th in
the land in overland production. Check topping 275 RYs no less than 7 times,
with 260 RYs vs an Ohio St "D" which was 200 yds more than the 60.4 RYpg
allowed by the Buckeyes in their other 11 games. And that was at Columbus.
Can they repeat such a fete vs a healthy USC Trojan squad, which has been
the premier program in nation over the past 5 years? The logical answer may
seem to be: "Why Not?". And we certainly don't dismiss any such possibility,
with the aforementioned Illini overland accomplishments. But, as we noted,
this Troy squad is at its healthiest at the moment, proving that with a throttling
of then #7 Arizona St, in that Thanksgiving day massacre (508-259 yd edge),
followed by their rout of Ucla (26-10 FD, 231-12 RY, 437-168 TY advantages).
Booty is again a force (63%, 20 TDs), & remember, he threw for 4 TDs in LY's
annihilation of Michigan in this same bowl. In Zook's 3 years with Florida, his
Gators went 0-3 in bowl games, losing 38-30, 37-17, & 27-10 (9, 23?, 13 pt
ATS setback). Sure, this is another time & place, but Trojans shine in biggies.
PROPHECY: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 38 - Illinois 20 RATING: 4
TEXAS TECH (8-4) vs VIRGINIA (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas Tech . 42.0 .. 42-26 .. 25-19 .... 65-177 .. 476-196.. - 6 . Tex Tech
Virginia ....... 41.1 .. 24-19 .. 16-15 .. 127-115 .. 203-210.. + 3 . by 4.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Here we go again! The Raiders of Texas Tech compete in their 8th straight
bowl game, in the 8 years of Mike Leach's tutelage. And what an offense the
Raiders display, especially with their aerial fireworks, where they've ranked
#1, #1, #1, #1, #3, & #1 the past 6 years. Junior Graham Harrell has inherited
the mantle from earlier Tech flingers Kingsbury, Symons, Cumbie, & Hodges.
In his 2 years over center, he has thrown for 9,953 yds & 83 TDs! Not exactly
the type of opponent one aspires to face in a bowl contest. The Raiders swept
past Clemson, 55-15, in the '02 Tangerine (35-pt cover); Navy, 38-14, in the
'03 Houston (11? pt cover), & California, 45-31, in the '04 Holiday (3-pt cover).
So an automatic play, right. Not quite, as they were held to a mere 10 pts in a
13-10 loss to Alabama in the '05 Cotton (6-pt ATS loss), & needed the largest
comeback in bowl history for a 44-41 OT win over Minnesota in the '06 Insight
(3? pt ATS loss). By the way, Tech came from 38-7 down, halfway thru the
3rd. So, still a scintillating attack, but hardly an obvious "go-with" bowl play.
But, when the Raiders are on their game, they are dynamite. The Cavs return
to the bowl scene, after LY's expected miss, following the departure of Groh's
offensive & defensive coordinators. Virginia opened the year with a miserable
5 FD, 7 RY, 110 TY display in a 23-3 loss at Wyoming, but has fallen just twice
since, by 5 at NCSt, & by 12 at VaTech. Five wins by 3 pts or less, but also a
pair of impressive 30 & 48 pt romps over Pittsburgh & Miami. The Cavs shine
on "D", where they rank 18th (11th in scoring "D"). But containing Harrell,
Crabtree (21 TD catches), & Co, is another matter. But not a "1" call anymore.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 33 - Virginia 24 RATING: 6
10 ARIZONA STATE over Texas
Late Score Forecast:
ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 30
Holiday Bowl at San Diego, Calif.
(Thursday, December 27, 2007)
Despite struggling as a favorite down the stretch, can?t help but be impressed by Arizona State?s performance
this season under first-year HC Dennis Erickson. The Sun Devils went 10-2, losing only to USC and a fullstrength
Oregon side ranked 4th in the country at the time. ASU QB Rudy Carpenter (career 252 ypg passing, 40
TDs, only 10 ints.) figures to have some success facing a Texas defense that ranked 109th against the pass,
allowing 278 ypg passing. Sun Devil RBs Keegan Herring & Dimitri Nance combined for 1268 YR, so the attack
has balance. The Longhorns were just 4-3 SU against bowl teams, and have covered just 3 of last 10 away from
Austin. Expect a shootout, but ASU?s tougher defense tips the scale.
10 *LSU over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast:
*LSU 31 - Ohio State 16
BCS Championship Game
at New Orleans, Louisiana
(Monday, January 7, 2008)
Yes, Ohio State greatly motivated after its smashing by Florida in LY?s title game. But this is a different Buckeye
team. Excellent defense, yes. But OSU has less speed at QB and WR this season. And it still has to deal with
that 51-day layoff since its last victory way back on Nov. 17 at Ann Arbor vs. the crippled Wolverines. Meanwhile,
CKO insiders tell us LSU has mended well during its layoff, with sr. QB Matt Flynn (missed SEC title game
with shoulder injury) expected to start, A-A DT Glenn Dorsey able to rest and treat his ailing knee and back, and
the WR corps finally nearly 100%. And now that elusive backup QB Ryan Perrilloux has big-game experience,
you can be sure he will have his own ?speed? package to keep the OSU defense guessing. The Tigers? ?press
coverage? worked vs. Tennessee; it should work in New Orleans too.
TOTALS: UNDER (4 in the Maryland-Oregon State game [Emerald Bowl, Dec. 28, AT&T Park in San Francisco]?Both defenses are strong & aggressive,
but rival QBs young...UNDER (54) in the Fresno State-Georgia Tech game [Humanitarian Bowl, Dec. 31 in Boise]?Fresno?s top RB Mathews is injured;
blitzes of Tech interim HC Tenuta are relentless.
..OVER (60) in the Michigan-Florida game [Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1 in Orlando]?Gators? spread too speedy
for Wolverine defense, while QB Henne & RB Hart healthier now than much of the regular season...OVER (60) in the Ball State-Rutgers game [International
Bowl, Jan. 5 at the Rogers Centre in Toronto]?Cardinal defense can?t stop Ray Rice indoors, but Ball State offense is underappreciated.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-rated games): HOUSTON (+7) over Indianapolis (NFL)?Sage Rosenfels 3-0 as a starter; Colts holding out injured starters
for the playoffs...BUFFALO (+3) vs. N.Y. Giants (NFL)?Bills 5-1 as home dog TY, with only loss to N.E.; Giants lose TE Shockey...TEXAS A&M over Penn
State [Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29 in San Antonio]?McGee?s option ability keeps Nittany Lions off balance; game taking place in ?Aggie country?...AUBURN (+2)
over Clemson [Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31 at Atlanta]?Tuberville?s defense, STs, sr. QB, SEC pedigree add up to small upset...OKLAHOMA (-8?) vs. West
Virginia [FIESTA BOWL, Jan. 2 in Glendale, AZ]?Rodriguez headed to Michigan; Sooners saw the spread all year in the Big XII and want to wipe out the
memory of LY?s Fiesta loss to Boise.
Pointwise Bowl Games
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-6) vs INDIANA (7-5)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
5:30 PM EST -- NFL NETWORK TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Okla St ........ 46.2 .. 33-29 .. 21-20 .. 246-155 .. 238-292 .. - 1 . Okla St
Indiana ....... 40.5 .. 32-27 .. 18-19 .. 156-159 .. 238-239 .. + 0 . by 3.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the first time in 14 years (45-20 loss to Virginia Tech in '93 Independence),
the Hoosiers of Indiana grace the bowl scene. They followed that loss to the
Hokies with a 6-5 record in '94, but then suffered through 12 consecutive
losing campaigns, before managing a 7-5 season this year. Lynch (for the
stricken Hoeppner) became the first head coach in program history to reach a
bowl game in his first season. The key to the Hoosiers' season, was its quick
start vs non-conference foes Indiana St, Western Michigan, & Akron, winning
by a combined score of 133-58. No, not the toughest of competition, but just
what Indy, & its 16 returning starters needed, in shaking a losing attitude.
They couldn't stay with Illinois, Mich St, or Wisconsin (112-44 pt deficit), but
their 2 other losses came by just 6 & 3 pts, vs 8-4 Penn St, & at 6-6 Northwestern.
However, check 288-134, 368-22, 192-68, 279-145, & 165-94 RY deficits
in their 5 losses. Hardly enough for QB Lewis (61%), along with his 2,839 yds
& 26 TDs to overcome. And that spells trouble vs an Oklahoma State Cowboy
team which sports not only the land's 9th ranked offense, but 7th best rushing
game, behind do-it-all QB Robinson (2,522 yds, 20 TDs passing; 777 yds, 7
TDs rushing). The 'Pokes scored at least 39 pts in each of their 6 wins, &
have now topped 40 pts 10 times the past 2 years. Thus, defense has to be
their bane, & so it is, ranking 104th overall, & 116th vs the pass, so Lewis has
to be licking his chops. Thus, a barnburner is almost a certainty. In an oddity,
the Hoosiers recorded the only shutout in this bowl's history (24-0 vs Baylor in
'91, when it was known as the Copper Bowl). This should be exact opposite.
PROPHECY: OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Indiana 30 RATING: 3
CLEMSON (9-3) vs AUBURN (8-4)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Clemson ..... 44.1 .. 34-18 .. 19-15 .. 147-106 .. 231-168.. +11 . Clemson
Auburn ....... 47.3 .. 24-17 .. 18-17 .. 154-119 .. 174-179.. + 1 . by 7.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Defense! This one matches a pair of perennial bowl participants, who meet
for the first time since the Tigers (or War Eagles) of Auburn took the measure
of the Tigers of Clemson, 21-17, in the '97 Peach Bowl, which, incidentally, is
the former name of this bowl. And doesn't that seem a logical score for this
contest? When the dust settled, the Tigers ranked 6th in the land in total "D",
8th in scoring "D", 19th vs the run, & 13th vs the pass. Solid credentials. But
the Eagles weren't far behind, ranking 8th, 6th, 25th, & 6th, in those columns,
respectively. So pts will be at a premium. However, if a team is to break out,
offensively, then Clemson would be the obvious choice. CU has exploded for
at least 42 pts on 5 occasions, with 2 of those marks posted vs bowl teams:
70-14 vs Central Michigan, & 44-10 vs Wake Forest. They are led by one of
the more pleasant surprises, QB Harper, who ranks 17th in the nation, as well
as 1st in the ACC in QB ratings, with a 67% pct, & 2,887 yds, along with 27 TD
passes, & just 6 INTs. Davis & Spiller have been "go-to" backs, while Kelly (84
receptions) is a force. The Eagles have been among the elites for ages, &, as
noted above, can take almost any foe out of its game. They thrive in the dog
role, covering 7-of-8 in that rare designation, over the past 4 years. If they are
at a disadvantage here, it is their penchant for the turnover, which has seen a
combined minus 11 in 3 of their 4 losses (5-0 deficit vs So Fla, 5-1 deficit vs
Miss St, 4-2 deficit vs Georgia). Though a veteran, sr QB Cox threw for only 9
TDs this season, while tossing 12 INTs. Thus, the QB edge seems to favor
Clemson, & that may decide it. Hate bucking AU as a dog, but this a CU call.
PROPHECY: CLEMSON 24 - Auburn 17 RATING: 6
TENNESSEE (9-4) vs WISCONSIN (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
11:00 AM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Tennessee .. 45.7 .. 33-28 .. 20-20 .. 145-163 .. 255-245 .. + 6 . Tennessee
Wisconsin .. 42.1 .. 30-23 .. 19-15 .. 182-136 .. 192-188 .. - 3 . by 1.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
That's right, these 2 have already met in a bowl game, namely the '81 Garden
State Bowl, when the Volunteers of Tennessee (-7?) won over the Badgers of
Wisconsin, 28-21. Who could ever forget it? Anyway, the stats were even in
that contest, with the Badgers covering on a late pass, despite suffering a 4-0
TO deficit. For the Vols, this has been the season of the home field success,
in direct contrast to the fortunes of the host in UT games over the previous 6
campaigns. As a matter of fact, the homer covered 9-of-12 games involving
the Vols, over the course of the regular season, with 2 of those misses by 5 pts
& ? pt. Home routs of 35-14 over Georgia (22-pt cover), & 34-13 over Arkansas
(21-pt cover), holding those powers to a combined 3.2 ypr, were the season's
high points, but remember that 2 of their 3 losses came by 39 pts (Florida) &
24 pts (Alabama): 31? & 24 pt ATS losses. QB Ainge has been superb, with
29 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,157 yds, & 63%. His 300 completions have snapped the
UT record of 287 by Peyton Manning in '97. RB Foster (1,107 yd) & WR Taylor
(1,000 receiving yds), also represent potent weapons. The Badgers visit the
bowl scene for the 6th straight year, & 11th in the last dozen seasons. They
have normally done it overland, with this year no exception, as they rank 19th
in the nation in running, with Hill their main threat the past 2 seasons (2,649
yds & 29 TDs), but he won't be available for this contest (leg), & that spells
trouble, despite QB Donovan finishing 4th among Big Ten passers. Fact of the
matter is that this Wisky edition just isn't as overpowering as recent Badger
squads, allowing >30 pts 6 times, & they haven't covered on the road all year.
PROPHECY: TENNESSEE 31 - Wisconsin 20 RATING: 3
MISSOURI (11-2) vs ARKANSAS (8-4)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
11:30 AM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Missouri ..... 47.0 .. 40-25 .. 25-20 .. 165-119 .. 328-262 .. +11 . Missouri
Arkansas .... 42.2 .. 40-26 .. 19-19 .. 297-148 .. 161-211 .. + 6 . by 2.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
Just a month ago, the Tigers of Missouri were hoping to land a spot in the BCS
Championship game, as they were ranked #1 in the nation, before losing to
Oklahoma, 38-17, in the Big 12 title contest. That game, by the way, was the
only one in which Mizzou failed to reach at least 31 pts this season. As a
matter of fact, the Tigers had averaged a blazing 42 ppg in their 13 lined
contests, previous to that failure vs the Sooners. Led by Jr QB Chase Daniel,
who finished 4th in the Heisman voting (69.7%, 4,170 yds, 33 TDs, & only 10
INTs), the Tigers have been a major story all season. Ranked a mere 32nd on
our "Polls" column at the season's onset, with only 1 publication ranking them
in the Top 25, they barely escaped Illinois in their opener, but prevailed, thanks
to 5 Illini TOs. But the machine was revved, with 548, 619, 581, & 606 yds in
the next 4 contests, before being derailed by Oklahoma (who else?). They
were the only team to take the measure of then 2nd-ranked Kansas (519-391
yd edge), & their 55-10 road demolition of a decent Colorado squad (598-196
yd edge) is the stuff of legends. Thus, the Razorbacks of Arkansas will have
their hands full, in trying to stay with this offensive juggernaut. But the Hogs
have the irrepressible McFadden in their arsenal. He has run for an astronomical
4,485 yds & 40 TDs the past 3 years, ranking 31st, 10th, & 4th in ball
toting since '05. He blitzed LSU for 206 yds in Arkies' season-ending upset of
mighty LSU, & how about an incredible 323 RYs (9.2 ypr), in the Hogs' 48-36
win over South Carolina? Simply awesome. Even with the departure of coach
Houston Nutt, the Arkies fear no one. Tiger disappointment may be the edge.
PROPHECY: ARKANSAS 34 - Missouri 33 RATING: 5
FLORIDA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN (8-4)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Florida ........ 46.6 .. 43-26 .. 22-18 .. 199-104 .. 259-258 .. + 1 . Florida
Michigan .... 43.1 .. 26-20 .. 19-15 .. 162-131 .. 185-159 .. + 8 . by 14.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
What a match! Just the 2nd between these collegiate gridiron behemoths,
the Wolverines of Michigan, & the defending national champion Gators of
Florida. Their 1st meeting took place in the '02 Outback Bowl, with Michigan
(+1) prevailing 38-30. The Wolves have dropped 4 bowl games since, & have
allowed 33 ppg in their last 9 holiday classics. Not exactly what is expected
from squad which is known for its rock-ribbed defense. A year ago, the Gators
made it look easy, in their 41-14 BCS title rout of Ohio St (31-pt cover), & the
Wolves made it look difficult in that 32-18 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl (13-pt
ATS setback). But despite those outcomes, we still feel that the Wolves were
jobbed from a return shot at the Buckeyes. No doubt, they still feel the same.
But is that added incentive enough to propel them past the awesome Gators,
who somehow lost 3 times this season? Florida opened more than few eyes
in its unheard of 59-20 rout of Tennessee, & wound up the season on a 4-gm
run, both SU & ATS, despite a "D", which allowed 33 ppg in its final 4 SEC tilts.
The Gator are led, of course, by Heisman winner, soph Tim Tebow, who set all
kinds of QB records with 29 passing, & 22 running TDs. Try 68.5% & just 6
INTs. The Wolves opened with that shocking loss to Appalachian St, followed
by a 39-7 home loss to Oregon (624-365 RY deficit), but then 8 straight wins,
before losses to Wisconsin & Ohio St: 40-25 FD & 756-411 yd deficits! Hart
has been a stalwart at RB for 4 years, but managed only 2.8 ypr in LY's Rose
Bowl. QB Henne & WR Mannigham are threats, to be sure, but Gator coach
Urban Meyer has simply shined in bowl contests. Florida, despite huge spot.
PROPHECY: FLORIDA 41 - Michigan 21 RATING: 1
GEORGIA (10-2) vs HAWAII (12-0)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
8:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Georgia ...... 47.1 .. 32-21 .. 18-17 .. 179-120 .. 200-205 .. + 4 . Georgia
Hawaii ......... 34.3 .. 46-23 .. 27-21 .... 81-140 .. 442-210 .. - 1 . by 5.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
This contest features yet another 2-loss team which feels that it has been
jobbed out of the BCS Title Game (the Georgia Bulldogs), facing major college
football's lone unbeaten team, which is thrilled to be here (the Hawaii Rainbow
Warriors). The 'Dawgs are, of course, one of the true elite squads in the land,
with a combined 63-15 record over the past 6 years, and making it to 34 bowl
games since the '66 season, with this marking their 11th straight season with
a bowl reward. And try 22 New Year's Day games. This year edition hardly
began with any flourish, as Georgia stood at just 4-2, after a thrashing at the
hands of the Vols of Tennessee, with 1 of those 4 wins by just 3 pts, in an OT
game vs eventual 6-6 Alabama. QB Stafford is the trigger, finishing as the 5th
rated passer in the SEC with 2,348 yds & 18 TDs, but Moreno is the engine
(2nd to McFadden in SEC RYs) in the 'Dawgs' 6-0 windup. Check 188 yds in
the Bulldogs' shockingly easy win over Florida (19? pt cover). Yep, a 6-game
run to wind it up, & the 4th slot in the national rankings, but no BCS cigar. For
the 10th-ranked & perfect Rainbows, this one represents the apex. June Jones'
overhead barrages have been near unstoppable for the last 7 years, but this
edition is assuredly his best. The 'Bows have been challenged, to be sure, but
at season's end, they again led the nation in scoring at 46.2 ppg, down a bit
from LY's 46.8 ppg. They are led, of course, by the brilliant Colt Brennan, who
has thrown 131 TDs the past 3 years, to a bevy of top-notch receivers, such
as Grice-Mullen, Bess, & Rivers. This squad defines the word "explosive".
Can Hawaii be this year's Boise St? Absolutely. Fireworks & another upset.
PROPHECY: HAWAII 38 Georgia 26 Rating 2
VIRGINIA (9-3) vs Texas Tech (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas Tech . 42.0 .. 42-26 .. 25-19 .... 65-177 .. 476-196.. - 6 . Tex Tech
Virginia ....... 41.1 .. 24-19 .. 16-15 .. 127-115 .. 203-210.. + 3 . by 4.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Here we go again! The Raiders of Texas Tech compete in their 8th straight
bowl game, in the 8 years of Mike Leach's tutelage. And what an offense the
Raiders display, especially with their aerial fireworks, where they've ranked
#1, #1, #1, #1, #3, & #1 the past 6 years. Junior Graham Harrell has inherited
the mantle from earlier Tech flingers Kingsbury, Symons, Cumbie, & Hodges.
In his 2 years over center, he has thrown for 9,953 yds & 83 TDs! Not exactly
the type of opponent one aspires to face in a bowl contest. The Raiders swept
past Clemson, 55-15, in the '02 Tangerine (35-pt cover); Navy, 38-14, in the
'03 Houston (11? pt cover), & California, 45-31, in the '04 Holiday (3-pt cover).
So an automatic play, right. Not quite, as they were held to a mere 10 pts in a
13-10 loss to Alabama in the '05 Cotton (6-pt ATS loss), & needed the largest
comeback in bowl history for a 44-41 OT win over Minnesota in the '06 Insight
(3? pt ATS loss). By the way, Tech came from 38-7 down, halfway thru the
3rd. So, still a scintillating attack, but hardly an obvious "go-with" bowl play.
But, when the Raiders are on their game, they are dynamite. The Cavs return
to the bowl scene, after LY's expected miss, following the departure of Groh's
offensive & defensive coordinators. Virginia opened the year with a miserable
5 FD, 7 RY, 110 TY display in a 23-3 loss at Wyoming, but has fallen just twice
since, by 5 at NCSt, & by 12 at VaTech. Five wins by 3 pts or less, but also a
pair of impressive 30 & 48 pt romps over Pittsburgh & Miami. The Cavs shine
on "D", where they rank 18th (11th in scoring "D"). But containing Harrell,
Crabtree (21 TD catches), & Co, is another matter. But not a "1" call anymore.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 33 - Virginia 24 RATING: 6
10-2) vs ILLINOIS (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
5:00 EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
USC ............ 40.3 .. 31-16 .. 21-16 .. 186- 79 ... 233-180 .. - 1 . USC
Illinois ......... 43.5 .. 30-29 .. 19-19 .. 266-115 .. 157-241 .. + 1 . by 10.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
Just 3 years ago, Ron Zook left the Florida Gators as a failed successor to the
legendary Steve Spurrier, when they suffered through 5-loss seasons in each
of his 3 years at the Gainesville helm. Well, it didn't take the Fighting Illini of
Illinois long to snag him. And what a coup it has turned out to be, with Illinois
making it all the way back from a combined 8-38 record from '03-'06, to a spot
in the Grandaddy Bowl. Plain & simple, Zook has recruited well. Led by the
elusive Juice Williams at QB (1,498 PYs, 774 PYs), & the running of Mendenhall
(1,526 yds, 6.2 ypr, 16 TDs), the Illini have come from 47th, to 10th, to 5th in
the land in overland production. Check topping 275 RYs no less than 7 times,
with 260 RYs vs an Ohio St "D" which was 200 yds more than the 60.4 RYpg
allowed by the Buckeyes in their other 11 games. And that was at Columbus.
Can they repeat such a fete vs a healthy USC Trojan squad, which has been
the premier program in nation over the past 5 years? The logical answer may
seem to be: "Why Not?". And we certainly don't dismiss any such possibility,
with the aforementioned Illini overland accomplishments. But, as we noted,
this Troy squad is at its healthiest at the moment, proving that with a throttling
of then #7 Arizona St, in that Thanksgiving day massacre (508-259 yd edge),
followed by their rout of Ucla (26-10 FD, 231-12 RY, 437-168 TY advantages).
Booty is again a force (63%, 20 TDs), & remember, he threw for 4 TDs in LY's
annihilation of Michigan in this same bowl. In Zook's 3 years with Florida, his
Gators went 0-3 in bowl games, losing 38-30, 37-17, & 27-10 (9, 23?, 13 pt
ATS setback). Sure, this is another time & place, but Trojans shine in biggies.
PROPHECY: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 38 - Illinois 20 RATING: 4
TEXAS TECH (8-4) vs VIRGINIA (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas Tech . 42.0 .. 42-26 .. 25-19 .... 65-177 .. 476-196.. - 6 . Tex Tech
Virginia ....... 41.1 .. 24-19 .. 16-15 .. 127-115 .. 203-210.. + 3 . by 4.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Here we go again! The Raiders of Texas Tech compete in their 8th straight
bowl game, in the 8 years of Mike Leach's tutelage. And what an offense the
Raiders display, especially with their aerial fireworks, where they've ranked
#1, #1, #1, #1, #3, & #1 the past 6 years. Junior Graham Harrell has inherited
the mantle from earlier Tech flingers Kingsbury, Symons, Cumbie, & Hodges.
In his 2 years over center, he has thrown for 9,953 yds & 83 TDs! Not exactly
the type of opponent one aspires to face in a bowl contest. The Raiders swept
past Clemson, 55-15, in the '02 Tangerine (35-pt cover); Navy, 38-14, in the
'03 Houston (11? pt cover), & California, 45-31, in the '04 Holiday (3-pt cover).
So an automatic play, right. Not quite, as they were held to a mere 10 pts in a
13-10 loss to Alabama in the '05 Cotton (6-pt ATS loss), & needed the largest
comeback in bowl history for a 44-41 OT win over Minnesota in the '06 Insight
(3? pt ATS loss). By the way, Tech came from 38-7 down, halfway thru the
3rd. So, still a scintillating attack, but hardly an obvious "go-with" bowl play.
But, when the Raiders are on their game, they are dynamite. The Cavs return
to the bowl scene, after LY's expected miss, following the departure of Groh's
offensive & defensive coordinators. Virginia opened the year with a miserable
5 FD, 7 RY, 110 TY display in a 23-3 loss at Wyoming, but has fallen just twice
since, by 5 at NCSt, & by 12 at VaTech. Five wins by 3 pts or less, but also a
pair of impressive 30 & 48 pt romps over Pittsburgh & Miami. The Cavs shine
on "D", where they rank 18th (11th in scoring "D"). But containing Harrell,
Crabtree (21 TD catches), & Co, is another matter. But not a "1" call anymore.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 33 - Virginia 24 RATING: 6
