Newsletters week of 9-8

[ltl]

Pointwise Newsletter Key Plays

1--Oregon over PURDUE 45-24
1--MISSOURI over Nevada 56-20
2--FRESNO STATE over Wisconsin 34-20
3--SAN JOSE STATE over San Diego State 31-14
4--CONNECTICUT over Virginia 31-7
4--CLEMSON over n.c. state 45-10
5--TCU over Stanford 44-14
5--Air Force over HOUSTON 36-24

NFL Key Plays

2--JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo 30-16
3--TAMPA BAY over Atlanta 26-13
4--San Diego over DENVER 27-17
4--Miami (+) over ARIZONA 19-20
5--SEATTLE over San Francisco 31-13

Last week "1" rated plays were 1-1, now 2-2 on the year
All rated plays last week--College 5-3 (now 8-8 on year)
NFL--3-2





Red Sheet Plays for 9/11-9/15

Air Force 38 - HOUSTON 24 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Houston minus 3?, & is now minus 5. The Falcons are one of the top spread streakers, & are currently on a nice 8-1 run vs the pts. And, as usual, they are doing it with their splendid overland game, which has piled up 694 yds thus far. Defensively, they've allowed a total of only 18 FDs in the early going, & caused 5 TOs in last week's 23-3 demolition of a decent Wyoming squad. Not the best of teams for this Cougar "D' to face on the heels of allowing nearly 700 yds, 379 of which came on the ground. The Coogs can crank it up, overhead, with Keenum tossing 9 TD passes already, but are on an 0-6 spread run, by 70? pts. Love the underdog role here.
RATING: AIR FORCE 89

MICHIGAN STATE 47 - Florida Atlantic 17 - (Noon) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 16?, & is now minus 17. Simply no questioning the improvement of the Spartans since no-nonsense coach Dantonio arrived in East Lansing a year ago. From 3 consecutive losing seasons, to a near upset of BostonCollege in the '07 Champs Sports Bowl. MichiganSt is on a nice 8-3-2 spread run, with 1 of those misses by a mere ? pt in its opening 30-23 loss at California, so note the Bears' 66-3 romp over WashingtonSt last week. With Ringer off a 5-TD game, & veteran Hoyer doing the tossing, see no letup, as the Owls, behind QB Rusty Smith, were also a bowl team LY. Thus, you have total focus with the better team.
RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 89

CLEMSON 48 - North Carolina State 10 - (Noon) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 19?, & is now minus 18?. To say that the Tigers laid an egg in their opening week game with Alabama, would be a gigantic understatement. They ranked 9th entering that one, & crawled away with a 34-10 loss, in which they were outrushed by an incomprehensible 239-0, with their pair of stellar RBs, Harper & Stiller, being completely shackled. But got off the mark last week vs the
Citadel (who wouldn't?), & should keep it going vs an NCSt team which has amassed a total of 21 FDs in its 2 games to date, & has little or no overland game to take much needed time off the clock. And a year ago, Clemson had a 608-202 yd edge vs Wolfpack.

RATING: CLEMSON 88

TCU 45 - Stanford 13 - (7:00 -- Line opened at TCU minus 13?, & is now minus 12?. In '05 & '06, the Frogs were one of the best propositions in college ball, with their near weekly routs. But a year ago, it took them 9 games to approach their recent profitable status. So note their current 5-1 spread run, with their only miss by just 1 pt. This season, they have a highly impressive 49-19 FD edge & that includes a 20-9 edge over always dangerous NewMexico. The Cards have had their moments, to be sure, including their epic upset of USC LY, & have a solid run "D", but note that they have been outscored by 60 pts in their last 3 RGs.
RATING: TCU 88

FRESNO STATE 35 - Wisconsin 20 - (10:30 - ABC) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 2, & is now minus 1?. As you know, we had the Bulldogs in their opening week tussle with Rutgers, & did not like what we were witnessing in the first half, when they were badly outplayed, but managed to escape with a 0-0 tie at intermission. And then they did what we expected, with a 24-7 win, behind the running of Matthews (163 yds & 3 TDs), & the passing of Brandstater. Are now on a 7-2 ATS run, covering their last 2 by 36 pts. The 10th ranked Badgers came from 404 RYs to 158 in a week, & have allowed >30 pts in their last 4 RGs.
RATING: FRESNO STATE 88

Pittsburgh 31 - CLEVELAND 20 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 4, & is now minus 5. We originally gave the Browns the benefit of the doubt in this one, figuring that they just couldn't be "one-year wonders", as they lit it up with regularity a year ago. Sure, they did absolutely nothing right in their hometown 28-10 wipeout loss to the Cowboys, with a FD deficit of 30-
11, along with a 488-205 yd disadvantage. But the Steelers provided the perfect opponent in which to erase the sudden doubts, with this NBC Sunday Nighter. But respected sources tell us that the Browns are simply not in the class of this Pitt team which opened impressively: Ben 13-of-14, & 138 RYs from Parker. Spread reasonable.
RATING: PITTSBURGH STEELERS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Oregon, Missouri, BoiseSt, OregonSt - NFL: NewOrleans, J'Ville, Philly

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): NotreDame (+4 to +1); Kansas (+6 to +3?); Duke (Pick to -2?); OregonSt (-9? to -12); California (-11? to -14); Baylor (+5 to +2?); Buffalo (-4 to -6?); UCLA (+10? to +8?); Oregon (-5 to -7); Rice (+8? to +7); Nevada (+28 to +26?); Houston (-3? to -5); Syracuse (+28 to +26?); USC (-9 to -10?); BowlingGreen (+17 to +15?); WesternKy (+29 to +27?); NoTexas (+42? to +41)
- NFL: Chicago (+6? to +3); NYGiants (-6 to -8?); Cincinnati (+1 to -1); Miami (+8 to +7); Washington (Pick to -1); Pittsburgh (-4 to -5) - TIME CHANGES: Toledo/EasternMich: now Noon; SanJoseSt/SanDiegoSt (now 8:00) - KEY INJURIES: LaLafayette RB (concussion) probable; Marshall TE Slate (knee) probable; Navy QB Kaheaku-Enhada (hamstring) probable; Nevada RB Lippincott (knee) out; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) probable; SoCarolina WR McKinley (hamstring) doubtful; Texas A&M RB Goodson (knee) probable; Texas A&M QB McGee (shoulder) questionable; Vanderbilt WR Smith (foot) doubtful....

 

[kozski61]

Historically Speaking Football Trends - Sep. 11-15
Nellys Sportsline
Posted: 2008-09-08
From Joe Nelson at Nelly's Sportsline

All trends are Against the Spread unless noted:

Abbreviations:
S/U = straight-up
H = home
R = road
F = favorite
D = dog
L = last
DD = double-digit
b2b = back-to-back



NCAA:

North Carolina is 2-14 S/U on road since '05
Rutgers is 16-7 off S/U loss since '03
Kansas is 7-2 on road since '06
South Florida is 8-2 at home since ?06
Navy is 11-7 as a road favorite since ?87
Duke is 4-13 at home since ?04
Rice is 14-7-1 as a DD dog since ?03
Vandy is 7-18 as a favorite since ?98
Auburn is 5-1 vs. MSU since ?02 (Lost S/U LY)
MSU is 6-17 H/D since ?02
Ball State is 11-5 as a favorite since ?02
Akron is 13-6 as H/D since ?98
Toledo is 3-15 on the road since ?05
Eastern Michigan is 1-7 S/U vs. Toledo since ?00
Nevada is 5-10 as a DD dog since ?04
Missouri is 9-3 L12 as H/F
SMU is 3-8 vs. TT since ?90
Texas Tech is 49-26-1 as H/F since ?86
NM St. is 22-35 on road since ?99
Nebraska is 72-54-3 as DD H/F since ?80
UCLA is 16-2-1 as an underdog since ?01
BYU is 8-3 as H/F since ?06
Oregon is 9-0 in road openers since ?99
Purdue is 6-12 at home since ?05
Arkansas is 4-0 L4 vs. Texas (3-1 S/U)
Texas is 13-6-1 L20 as H/F
Georgia is 3-5 vs. S. Carolina since ?00
SC is 10-20 as H/D since ?97
Air Force is 9-5 L14 as underdog
Houston is 58-81-1 at home since ?80
Hawaii is 3-8 as R/D since ?03
OSU is 10-1 off b2b S/U losses since ?98
Wisconsin was 0-5 on road LY (2-3 S/U)
Fresno is 12-6 as H/D since ?92
Penn State is 8-4 as DD R/F since ?96
Syracuse was 0-4-1 as DD H/D LY
Michigan is 3-6 vs. Notre Dame since ?97
Notre Dame is 4-13 L17 at home
Iowa St. is 9-1 vs. Iowa since ?98 (6-3 S/U)
Iowa is 32-14 at home since ?97
GT is 13-7-1 on road since ?04
VT is 103-62-3 as dog, or favorite -7 or less
NC State is 5-8 vs. Clemson since ?95
Clemson is 5-12 L17 as favorite
Western Michigan is 9-14 as R/F since ?98
Idaho is 0-5 L5 as H/D
C. Michigan is 26-35-1 on the road since ?98
Ohio is 7-2 at home since ?06
California is 16-27-1 as R/F since ?83
Maryland is 7-13 at home since ?04
Washington State is 13-5 as R/F since ?97
Baylor is 4-12 at home since ?05
Stanford is 9-6 as a road underdog since ?05
TCU is 17-7 L24 home games
Temple is 14-6 L20 as an underdog
Buffalo is 12-7-1 L20 at home
UAB is 9-3 as dog of 20 or more since ?99
Tennessee is 4-14-1 L19 as H/F
ECU is 14-4 on the road since ?05
Tulane is 30-45-2 as H/D since ?81
Memphis is 21-13-2 off b2b S/U losses since ?80
Marshall is 28-20 at home
Virginia is 11-23 on the road since ?02
Uconn is 8-3 L11 as H/F (10-1 S/U)
Oklahoma is 4-10 as R/F since ?04
Washington is 20-11 as H/D since ?81
Ohio State is 11-2 L13 on road (13-0 S/U)
USC is 24-13 at home since ?02
Arizona is 10-19 as R/F since ?87
New Mexico is 6-13-1 L20 at home
Bowling Green is 13-5 L18 as DD dog
Boise St. is 31-12-1 as H/F since ?99
Utah is 22-30 as R/F since ?82
Utah State is 2-6-1 vs. Utah since ?99
SDSU is 4-1 vs. SJSU since ?96
SJSU is 11-1 L12 at home
UNLV is 7-17-1 on road since ?04
ASU is 16-8 as H/F since ?03
Florida Atlantic is 5-13 DD dog since ?04
MSU is 7-12-2 at home since ?05
W. Kentucky 1-5 S/U road LY vs. FBS
Alabama is 12-25-2 as favs of 20+
So. Miss. Is 12-3 as R/F since ?03
Arkansas State is 15-7 as H/D since ?98
MTSU is 12-7-1 on road since ?05
Kentucky is 12-16 as DD favs since ?84
ULL is 14-12 L26 on road
Illinois is 6-11 L17 as H/F
North Texas is 0-14 L14 as dog of 20 or more
LSU is 1-6 L7 as DD favorite

NFL:

Oakland is 6-2-1 at KC since ?00
Kansas City is 0-5 L5 home games
Tennessee is 8-5 L13 as a road favorite
Cincinnati is 2-7 L9 as a home dog
Indianapolis is 14-10 L24 on the road
Minnesota is 21-9 as H/D since ?90
New Orleans is 11-7 on road since ?06
Washington is 3-6-2 L11 home games
Green Bay is 3-8 at Detroit since ?97
Detroit is 53-38-1 as H/D since ?80
Chicago is 9-5 L14 road games
Carolina is 6-12 L18 home games
NY Giants are 8-1 L9 as R/F
St. Louis is 9-24 L33 as a +7 or more dog
Buffalo is 13-7 L20 as an underdog
Jacksonville is 12-5 at home since ?06
Atlanta is 8-15 off S/U wins
Tampa Bay was 5-2 as a favorite LY
San Francisco is 3-6 L9 vs. Seattle
Seattle is 18-6-3 L27 as H/F
Miami is 0-10 S/U L10 on road
Arizona is 1-12 L13 as a favs. of 7 or more
New England is 13-4 L17 as R/F
NY Jets are 5-2 L7 as underdogs
Baltimore is 10-16 as dog of 3+ since ?03
Houston is 7-8 all-time as fav.
San Diego is 22-10 as R/F since ?92
Denver is 4-10 L14 at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 at Cleveland since ?99
Cleveland is 6-10 L16 as H/D
Philadelphia is 9-3 L12 at Dallas
Dallas is 4-8 L12 as favorite of 7 or more

 

[kozski61]

Winning Points


NFL:

****BEST BET
Pittsburgh over *Cleveland by 24
Are the Cleveland Browns ready for prime time? They sure didn?t look the
part last Sunday. So has anything changed? No, not really.The Browns lack
the edge rushers to bother Ben Roethlisberger, especially after losing linebacker
Antwan Peek for the season.The Browns also are thin and weak in
the secondary. The Steelers have a history of physically man-handling the
Browns. They can do it again by running a now healthy Willie Parker, or
attack through the air where Roethlisberger has many options, including
Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and tight end Heath Miller. Pittsburgh has had
Cleveland?s number, beating the Browns during the past nine meetings,
covering eight times.The Browns need a successful ground game to keep
the Steelers? pass rush and assorted blitzes from teeing off on Derek
Anderson. Pittsburgh, however, is one of the toughest clubs to run on.The
Steelers ranked No. 3 last year. Their rush defense has been in the top-10
each of the past four seasons.The Browns had one of the most feared passing
attacks last year. It?s not in sync yet. A preseason injury to Braylon
Edwards has messed up his timing with Anderson. Edwards had four drops
against the Cowboys. No doubt Cleveland?s ?Dawg Pound? will be packed
for this Sunday night prime time matchup. It won?t matter, though, because
the Browns aren?t ready.The pressure of lofty preseason expectations and
being featured on prime time works against them.The Steelers hold mental
and physical edges. The Browns need a high-scoring offense to hide
their many defensive blemishes. Right now they don?t have it.There are not
enough consistent producers behind Edwards and tight end Kellen
Winslow Jr. with veteran Joe Jurevicius out.Anderson has a strong arm, but
lacks accuracy and tends to go hot and cold.The Steelers are the more consistent
and better all around team. PITTSBURGH 38-14.
***BEST BET
Miami over *Arizona 8
Even when they were so bad last season the Dolphins still lost by just a
field goal six times. Now Miami has better coaching and front office personnel
with proven winner Bill Parcells in charge.The Dolphins should be
a very live ?dog in this spot, especially coming off a home loss last Sunday
to the Jets.Anytime you can get a rising AFC team taking a decent amount
of points against a mediocre NFC club such as the Cardinals, it?s a sound
investment. Miami?s defensive front is underrated. Its linebackers are active.
Parcells and new head coach, tough guy Tony Sparano, have made the
Dolphins stronger and more physical in the trenches.This should pay dividends
against the finesse Cardinals whose strength is in their two outstanding
wide receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.The Cardinals
are a light-hitting, sloppy tackling team. Quarterback Kurt Warner is overthe-
hill and so is their lead running back, Edgerrin James. Both players have
a lot of mileage on them. Don?t be surprised if each is replaced in the starting
lineup by mid-season.Warner still can move a team between the 20?s,
but is prone to mistakes and has trouble putting up touchdowns in the Red
Zone.This is the type of matchup where the Cardinals could put up the better
statistics, but lose the war.The Dolphins can?t come close to matching
Arizona?s two top wideouts. However, the Dolphins have a very heady, veteran
quarterback, Chad Pennington, and two solid running backs. Ricky
Williams and Ronnie Brown, who is nearly 100 percent healthy, are among
the top running back tandems in the NFL.They can churn up yardage and
maintain ball-control against a soft Cardinals defensive interior. This is
Arizona?s only home game during the first four weeks. So the Cardinals may
be pressing. They?ve dropped 18 of their last 26 home contests in
September. MIAMI 24-16.
**PREFERRED
*CLOSE CALLS
New Orleans over *Washington by 9
Quiz time.What quarterback has passed for the most yards during the past
two plus seasons? No, it?s not Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. If you said
Drew Brees go to the head of the class. Unlike the Redskins, the Saints and
their quarterback are in sync with their offensive system.Taking advantage
of an improved Reggie Bush, Brees shredded Tampa Bay?s respected
defense last week for 343 yards and three touchdowns. He can take advantage
of Washington?s overrated secondary and banged-up defensive line.
The Saints have improved their defense with the addition of rookie tackle
Sedrick Ellis and linebacker Jonathan Vilma. Their secondary remains vulnerable.
However, Jason Campbell isn?t fitting into new coach Jim Zorn?s
version of a West Coast offense.The Redskins lack the rhythm and timing
at this early stage to make the schemes work. Zorn already has come under
fire for his inability to manage a game.The Redskins were out-gained by the
Giants opening week, 354-209. Zorn is in above his head matching wits
with astute offensive mind Sean Payton.To beat the Saints, you must keep
their offense off the field and take advantage of their secondary. The
Redskins can?t do either one at this stage. NEW ORLEANS 26-17.
Buffalo over *Jacksonville by 4
Effort, solid coaching and outstanding special teams play. Those are three
things you can almost always count on when backing Buffalo. Special teams
especially can?t be overlooked when handicapping Buffalo. Just ask Seattle
coach Mike Holmgren. The Jaguars could only manage 33 yards rushing
behind a beat-up offensive line against Tennessee last week. If the Jaguars
can?t run, they are in big trouble because they don?t have the wideouts to
scare secondaries.The Bills are off a big home win.They should come into
this matchup in a strong frame of mind knowing Jacksonville destroyed
them at this venue last year, 36-14. It?s a revenge spot.The key for Buffalo is
offensive improvement.Trent Edwards is in his second season as a starter.
He?s more confident with his downfield passing. Marshawn Lynch is developing
into a top running back. The receiving corps is improved with the
addition of second-round draft choice James Hardy. Expected to play for the
first time this season is left tackle Jason Peters, the Bills? best offensive lineman.
He finally ended his holdout just days before the start of the regular
season. The addition of Peters gives the Bills not only better pass protection,
but bigger rushing holes for Lynch. BUFFALO 21-17.
*Kansas City over Oakland by 6
The Raiders won last year at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time in six
years. Oakland had lost by a combined 11 points during its previous four
visits to Kansas City. The Chiefs actually have a better chance of winning
with backup quarterback Damon Huard replacing injured Brodie Croyle.
Kansas City was 0-7 with Croyle as its starter.The Raiders are committed to
a ground attack.They are deep at running back. Kansas City ranked 28th in
rush defense last season.However, the situation is terrible for Oakland, traveling
off a Monday night game and playing at an early start time coming
from the West Coast. The Raiders? passing attack remains a work in
progress. KANSAS CITY 16-10.
Tennessee over *Cincinnati by 3
The Bengals? offensive line didn?t look good during preseason. Carson
Palmer then proceeded to possibly play his worst game ever opening
week. Coincidence? Palmer certainly is capable of bouncing back in big
fashion.The Titans are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 away contests.They have
covered 15 of 22 times as a ?dog during the Vince Young era, although
Young (check status) suffered a knee injury last Sunday. His replacement,
Kerry Collins, is a more accurate passer but lacks Young?s big-play ability
and mobility.The Titans had the fifth-stingiest defense last year.They held
Jacksonville to only 187 yards in capturing their opener.TENNESSEE 16-13.
Indianapolis over *Minnesota by 1
The Vikings are missing suspended star offensive left tackle Bryant
McKinnie. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson?s strength is his mobility, but that?s
limited by his wearing a knee brace. Minnesota also is on a short week after
played on the road Monday night.The Colts, though, need to be careful. It?s
nearly impossible to run on Minnesota. Peyton Manning didn?t practice
until a week before the season. He could still be rusty. He also doesn?t have
his trusted center, Jeff Saturday. Sack leader Jared Allen can make things
round on any quarterback. The Colts opened their new stadium opening
week and have a key AFC South showdown at home next week versus rival
Jacksonville. INDIANAPOLIS 21-20.
Green Bay over *Detroit by 4
For the first time in 15 years, the Lions face the Packers not having to see
Brett Favre.The Packers were 23-9 against Detroit with Favre under center.
The Packers have won 11 of 16 road contests under Mike McCarthy, covering
eight of their past 10 away contests.The Packers may be missing center
Scott Wells (check status), a key to their offensive line. Detroit?s ground
game could pick up as veteran Rudi Johnson gets more acclimated. Note to
totals players.The Packers are 21-6 ?over? in their last 27 games on artificial
turf. The Lions still aren?t tackling any better under Rod Marinelli. GREEN
BAY 24-20.
3
NFL (CONTINUED)
*Carolina over Chicago by 1
The Bears have too much inexperience on offense and their offensive line
is in transition. That keeps us from calling for an outright road upset.Yet
this should be a very tight game, featuring plenty of running and short passes.
The Panthers have little speed at the flanks with star wide receiver Steve
Smith still under team suspension. He?ll return next week. The Bears
defense still remains very respectable when healthy.The Panthers are much
better taking points than being the favorite. They also haven?t been very
profitable at home, going 5-12-1 in their last 18 at Bank of America Stadium.
CAROLINA 17-16.
New York Giants over *St. Louis by 11
The Rams have bigger problems than their one-dimensional offense with
declining skill position players and weak offensive line. Their defense
remains horrific, surrendering 522 yards to the Eagles last week. St. Louis is
just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home contests, while the Giants have won 11
straight road matchups.The Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 away games.
Osi Umenyiora is out for the season and Michael Strahan is in the announcing
booth.Yet the Giants still maintain a fierce pass rush thanks to rising
star Justin Tuck and aggressive blitzing schemes by defensive coordinator
Steve Spagnuolo. NY GIANTS 28-17.
*Tampa Bay over Atlanta by 14
Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner both had
outstanding debuts for Atlanta last week.Keep in mind that was at home on
carpet against a porous Lions defense.Now, though, the Falcons take to the
road to face a Buccaneers defense that almost always ends the season
ranked in the top 10. Long-time Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Monte
Kiffin is going to have a few tricks up his sleeve for Ryan, who will be making
his first NFL road start. Expect Kiffin to mix in a few blitz packages.The
Buccaneers swept the Falcons last season, winning by a combined margin
of 68-10.TAMPA BAY 24-10.
*Seattle over San Francisco by 6
The 49ers? defense plays softer on the road and their offense remains a
work in progress under new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Yet the
Seahawks are no bargain right now with a beat-up offensive line and a cluster
injury problem at wide receiver with Bobby Engram out and possibly
no Deion Branch and Nate Burleson. Those are their three best wide
receivers. What Seattle mainly has going is a solid defense and one of the
strongest home-field advantages. The Seahawks are 43-14 at home since
2001, the second-best home mark in the NFL during this span. It?s the first
road start for San Francisco?s six-year career journeyman quarterback J.T.
O?Sullivan. SEATTLE 16-10.
*New York Jets over New England by 3
Tom Brady is 12-2 versus the Jets.The bad news is Brady could be finished
for the season after suffering an injury to his left knee. Untested Matt Cassel
looked OK filling in for Brady last week.Things would be much more difficult
in this spot for Cassel, though, being on the road. Jets coach Eric
Mangini coached under Patriots head man Bill Belichick for six years.The
Jets will know all about Cassel. Even with Brady, the Patriots had failed to
cover in nine of their last 10 games. On the flip side, Brett Favre is still
learning his new teammates.The Jets could be without kicker Mike Nugent,
who suffered a thigh injury. NY JETS 23-20.
*Houston over Baltimore by 7
Expect a bounce back from Houston playing at home. But until the Texans
get some semblance of a ground attack, it?s hard to back them with a lot of
confidence. The Texans rushed for just 75 yards against Pittsburgh last
week. Baltimore has a solid run defense, too, ranking No. 2 last year. The
problem for Baltimore is putting points on the board with rookie Joe
Flacco at quarterback. Houston?s defense was supposed to be improved,
but it didn?t look good last week. Flacco needs plenty of help, which he
doesn?t have.The Ravens? offensive line is in transition and their wideouts
are average at best. HOUSTON 21-14.
San Diego over *Denver by 7
Only four times in Mike Shanahan?s 14 seasons as Denver?s head coach
have the Broncos failed to score a touchdown.Two of those times occurred
last year in games against the Chargers. San Diego out-scored Denver, 64-6,
in sweeping the Broncos. Denver has plenty of incentive after suffering
their worst home loss since 1966 to the Chargers last year, 41-3. Motivation
is all good and well, but the Broncos don?t have enough defense to pull the
upset.Their run defense is weak and their secondary is not as good as perceived.
The Chargers have covered in nine of their last 10 games. SAN
DIEGO 24-17.
*Dallas over Philadelphia by 4 (Monday)
Both teams are hurting for depth at wide receiver because of numerous
injuries to their wideouts. But Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo still have
big-play targets. The Eagles have played the Cowboys tough at Texas
Stadium, winning and covering six of their past eight visits. This includes
the last two when the Eagles held Dallas to a combined 13 points. The
Eagles have no love lost for former teammate Terrell Owens. The Eagles
have covered nine of the past 11 times they?ve been underdogs during the
past two plus seasons. DALLAS 24-20.
OVER/UNDER
**UNDER: Tennessee at Cincinnati ? The Bengals? defense is ahead
of their offense, while the Titans lack dangerous wide receivers.
UNDER: Oakland at Kansas City ? Two bad passing offenses means
lots of running and tight defense.
UNDER: San Francisco at Seattle ? The last four in this series have
gone ?under.?The Seahawks best receivers are hurt.
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Oakland at Kansas City ? The teams split last season with Kansas City
winning 12-10 on the road and Oakland winning, 20-17, at Kansas City.
Tennessee at Cincinnati ? The Bengals buried the Titans, 35-6, at home
last year.
Indianapolis at Minnesota ? The Colts defeated the Vikings, 31-28, at
home in 2004.
New Orleans at Washington ?Washington beat New Orleans, 16-10, on
the road in 2006.
Green Bay at Detroit ? Last year, the Packers won 37-26 on the road and
34-13 at home.
Chicago at Carolina ? The Panthers beat the Bears, 29-21, on the road in
the 2005 playoffs.
New York Giants at St. Louis ? The Giants rolled past the Rams, 44-24, at
home in 2005.
Buffalo at Jacksonville ? The Jaguars blasted the Bills, 36-14, at home last
season.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay ? The Buccaneers swept the Falcons last season,
winning 31-7 on the road and 37-3 at home.
San Francisco at Seattle ? The Seahawks swept San Francisco last year,
winning 23-3 on the road and 24-0 at home.The past four in the series have
gone ?under.?
Miami at Arizona ? The Cardinals nipped the Dolphins, 24-23, on the road
in 2004.
New England at New York Jets ? The Patriots knocked off the Jets twice
last year, 38-14 on the road and 20-10 at home.The host team is 2-16 ATS in
the series.
Baltimore at Houston ? The Ravens edged the Texans, 16-15, at home in
2005.
San Diego at Denver ? The Chargers rolled past the Broncos 41-3 on the
road and 23-3 at home last season.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland ? The Steelers swept the Browns last year, 34-7
on the road and 31-28 at home.The Steelers are 22-4 SU during the past 26
head-to-head meetings. Pittsburgh is 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS in its last nine versus
the Browns.
Philadelphia at Dallas ? The teams split last season with Dallas winning
38-17 on the road and losing 10-6 at home.The Eagles are 6-2 SU and ATS
in their last eight at Dallas.

 

[kozski61]

Winning Points


CFB:

****BEST BET
CLEMSON* over N. C. STATE by 40
Two weeks ago we had Alabama over the Tigers at the top of this page, exposing
the fact that a team that might be the ACC?s best was not ready in the trenches to
match up to a physical SEC opponent. That result worked in two ways for us ?
obviously getting the win was sweet, but it also came in a way that sets us up well
to come right back in here at a price much shorter than it should be. Now they
step way down in class to where their issues in the trenches are not a factor, and
that means those explosive skill people can do their thing at will ? much like they
did in last year?s 22-point win at Raleigh, when they had staggering edges of 608-
202 on total offense, and 340-55 rushing. The mind-set is also going to be there,
with the conference opener offering a whole new lease on the season, which means
the energy to explode early, and with only South Carolina State on deck there is
also no reason to back off at any time. Meanwhile the Wolfpack were not nearly as
fluid on offense as the 34 points vs. William & Mary would show, with half of that
scoreboard production coming after turnovers (they could only manage 11 first
downs and 67 yards rushing, despite stepping down in class). And in terms of a
shatter factor on the road, note that Tom O?Brien?s squad has been out-scored 88-
0 over their last 9+ quarters vs. lined opponents, dating back to last November.
There are simply not enough playmakers in the skill positions to keep the pace
here, and we do not see this favorite letting up in this setting. CLEMSON 47-7.
***BEST BET
SOUTHERN CAL* over OHIO STATE by 24
Give Pete Carroll ample time to prepare, and you can see something special ? just
check the performances of the Trojans in bowl games and season openers starting
with the end of his second campaign, when he had enough time to get the program
back in order. And with two weeks to prepare, this game fits into those molds. But
give him that same preparation time with a seasoned corps of seniors on defense
(five Trojan defenders will likely go in the first round of the NFL draft next April),
which allows him to put many chapters of his intricate playbook into action, and
you have the makings of a most special season. And it does not hurt that the
offense has both talent and depth, with QB Mark Sanchez having a vast array of
WR?s and RB?s to work with. That spells bad news for an Ohio State team that was
out-classed in terms of speed in those BCS showdowns to Florida and L.S.U. the
past two years, and now faces the most unusual challenge of facing a superior team
on the road in a non-conference setting. Once again it will be the inability of the
offense to make things happen that sets the tone here which puts the Buckeye
defense on the field far too long, and eventually leads to Southern Cal wearing
them down and breaking this open in the second half. And as for trying to write
last week?s sluggish showing vs. Ohio U. off as merely a ?look-ahead?, if Bobcat QB
Theo Scott is not injured early do the Buckeyes even win the game? Not the way
to build momentum. SOUTHERN CAL 37-13.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
Michigan over Notre Dame* by 14
Yes, the Michigan offense is going to be a work in progress until Rich Rodriguez
can get his own recruitments on the field. But he still brings far better personnel
than what he is up against here, and it means time for us to get back in play against
Charlie Weis again. It was a sin of omission to not back San Diego State last week,
but how could anyone trust an injury-riddled Aztec DL that had been run through
by Cal Poly? Yet if not for a fumble literally two inches from the Notre Dame goal
line in the fourth quarter on Saturday, State would have been ahead by two touchdowns,
and likely would have won the game. That is all there is in South Bend,
folks, with the Fighting Irish getting two full yards less per rush at home than Cal
Poly could on the road vs. the same defense. With Michigan winning the last two
in the series by a combined 64 points, there is a lot more gap to make up than this
pointspread is calling for, and off of last year?s shutout the Wolverines can control
this with defense again. MICHIGAN 27-13.
T.C.U.* over Stanford by 24
For most programs a non-conference home game against Stanford is hardly a big
deal, but that is not the case for Gary Patterson and his Horned Frogs here.
Because not only of their abilities, but also their physical style of play, getting
opponents from BCS conferences to come to Fort Worth is becoming difficult, and
when they held Mike Leach and that explosive Texas Tech offense to a lone field
goal here two years ago that task became even harder. So in a season in which they
have big-time aspirations, and sandwiched only between Stephen F. Austin and
SMU, they will be primed to play to their peak this week. That spells bad news for
Jim Harbaugh?s squad, both in terms of the emotional focus (it will not be easy to
get his team up for this trip, after opening with back-to-back Pac 10 games), and
also the physical matchups. The Cardinal have to be able to get Toby Gerhart and
the running game untracked to be successful until their passing game develops, and
overland yards will not be found against this defense. T.C.U. 34-10.
Iowa* over Iowa State by 23
Kirk Ferentz has had control of the state of Iowa for so long that year?s 15-13 at
Ames in the first go-round against Gene Chizik will have been a particular sore
point over the last 12 months. When a favorite does not even score as many points
as the chalk that they were laying it is a humbling experience. But that was part of
an injury-riddled 2007 in which a lot of new precedents got set for his program.
Now many of those walking wounded are back, and the Hawkeyes have opened
with the kind of offensive balance (back-to-back games of over 200 yards both running
and passing) and rock-ribbed defense that we are accustomed to seeing. Now
it is time to do some serious editing of year?s DVD, and we see flaws that they can
clearly exploit. Note that in opening with 92 points on the scoreboard in two wins
the Cyclones have yet to reach 400 yards in a game, taking advantage of 10
turnovers. And a defense that has allowed 423 yards rushing at 5.4 per carry will
have been missed by those that were only looking at the scores. IOWA 37-14.
Arizona State* over U.N.L.V. by 12
Arizona State is not in Georgia?s class, something that we might be writing about
near the top of these pages next week. But the Sun Devils do not know that, and
having lived on or near so many campuses through his career Dennis Erickson also
recognizes just how much that game means. So off of a Pac 10 win over Stanford,
and with that monster showdown on deck. Just where does the motivation come
from this week? One of the great subtleties of football handicapping is that often
the worse an underdog appears in a given setting, the better their odds o cashing a
ticket, because it makes it do difficult for the favorite to find a spark during preparation.
And it also means that if the game is in hand there is no desire to increase
the margin, since Erickson would like to avoid injuries and keep his starters fresh.
The Rebels suit our purposes just fine here, and in QB Omar Clayton and RB
Frank Summers they do have the kind of weapons that can take some time off of
the clock and get points on the scoreboard. ARIZONA STATE 31-19.
Rutgers* over North Carolina by 5 (Thursday)
Is it possible that Greg Schiano has already taken the Rutgers program about as
high as it can go, and now faces a struggle to maintain a winning level? Tar Heels
are a work in progress, but do have an upside. RUTGERS 27-22.
Kansas over South Florida* by 4 (Friday)
The Bulls got sloppy with a late lead at Central Florida, which took that game
much deeper into the night, and makes this transition even more difficult. Do they
dare make a side from the struggling Big East the favorite? KANSAS 27-23.
Navy over Duke* by 3
We are seeing a legitimate spark from Duke so far under David Cutcliffe (91 offensive
snaps vs. Northwestern), and even some fans showing up. But the precision of


the Navy option tests the discipline and depth of a defense that can be worn down.
NAVY 30-27.
Vanderbilt* over Rice by 6
Although the Commodores made a solid account of themselves in that television
showcase last week, this is an awkward sandwich in between two SEC games, and
an offense that has only managed 585 yards in the first two games, not reaching
100 passing either team, will not cover spreads easily. VANDERBILT 30-24.
Auburn over Mississippi State* by 11
A significant revenge motive to the Tigers, who turned the ball over five times in
a 19-14 home loss year, with one of the interceptions returned for a TD. But still
not sure about the timing of their passing game vs. this class of defense on the road.
AUBURN 24-13.
Ball State over Akron* by 6
The fact that the Zips could score at will at Syracuse only masks the fact that
injuries in their own DL mean trouble rushing Nate Davis. And when there is no
pressure on defense, that Cardinal passing game can click. BALL STATE 30-24.
Toledo over Eastern Michigan* by 2
Rockets blasted off on this defense to the tune of 52 points, 324 rushing yards and
276 through the air at home year. And they will enjoy re-entry into the M.A.C.
orbits after having to open over their heads at Arizona. TOLEDO 31-29.
Missouri* over Nevada by 21
In theory, a case could be made that facing Texas Tech last week helps the Nevada
defense to tactically prepare for this matchup. And holding Graham Harrell to 19-
46 is indeed an achievement. So why don?t we believe?. MISSOURI 45-24.
*CLOSE CALLS
7
Texas Tech* over S.M.U. by 33
Mustangs lack any ability to slow this tempo down by running the ball, and with
only Massachusetts on deck, Mike Leach does not have to hold back in the ?Battle
of the Passing Playbook? ego contest. TEXAS TECH 53-20.
Nebraska* over New Mexico State by 24
Cornhuskers have the advantage of two games under their belts, while the Aggies
have yet to play. But well into the 4th quarter at Lincoln last week, it was impossible
to tell if the home team, or visiting San Jose State, was the superior side (check
that box score). NEBRASKA 44-20.
Brigham Young* over U.C.L.A. by 8
Note the nature of last year?s 27-17 Bruin win ? they trailed 435-236 in total
offense but made TO?s their friends, including an INT return for a TD. Now Max
Hall has had a full season in this system to learn how to avoid those mistakes.
B.Y.U. 27-19.
Oregon over Purdue* by 4
Not sure that Joe Tiller can get the grass tall enough to negate the advantages in
team speed that the Ducks bring. But the Oregon QB?s do not bring much of a
road resume. OREGON 31-27.
Texas* over Arkansas by 23
If you sold Bobby Petrino stock two years ago, when it was at is peak, good for you.
When you need major rallies at home two straight weeks to escape at home vs. Sun
Belt lightweights, a trip like this can become a nightmare. TEXAS 37-14.
Georgia over South Carolina* by 10
Gamecocks have the kind of defense that can keep all of those Georgia skill people
under control for a while. But when their own offense can not move the chains
or the clock, eventually their defensive huddles wilts in the second half. If it can
happen vs. Vanderbilt, then it certainly can vs. this class. GEORGIA 26-16.
Houston* over Air Force by 4
Although the Cougar speed on offense can find plenty of room vs. the slower
Falcon defenders, when their own defensive unit was on the field at Oklahoma
State last week it often looked like a basketball fast break. They were not even hitting
hard enough to have fouls called. HOUSTON 35-31.
Oregon State* over Hawaii by 12
That re-built Beaver defensive front has not been able to stop Stanford or Penn
State overland, and now have to shift gears and rush the passer. But with so many
new faces in the Hawaii offensive huddle, another road trip is not what the doctor
ordered this early in the season. OREGON STATE 35-23.
Wisconsin over Fresno State* by 2
The Bulldogs have had plenty of time to prepare since Rutgers, and will have a
frenzied crowd behind them. But they were soft against the run last season, and
now face a much more physical opponent than they are accustomed to. WISCONSIN
23-21.
Penn State over Syracuse* by 23
There should be plenty of blue and white in the Carrier Dome this week, with the
Orange not even coming close to filling the seats these days. And who could blame
the home fans? Lion speed will enjoy this playing surface. PENN STATE 36-13.
Virginia Tech* over Georgia Tech by 5
Paul Johnson?s spread attack sputtered and wheezed at Boston College, with only
12 first downs, 235 yards and three lost fumbles. But the defense kept them in the
game long enough to be able to win it, and that unit can do the same against the
unimposing Hokie offense. VIRGINIA TECH 19-14.
Western Michigan over Idaho* by 11
The fact that the Broncos consider themselves to be bowl-worthy this season adds
a little more spark than usual for this trip, and with only a home game vs.
Tennessee Tech on deck they have no cause for looking ahead. WESTERN
MICHIGAN 38-27.
Central Michigan over Ohio* by 8
Have top believe that the Chippewas have the better tools to rebound from the
step-up challenges that each team faced last week, particularly with the Bobcats
likely to be physically and emotionally drained after leading outright into the
fourth quarter at Columbus. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 28-20.
California over Maryland* by 12
After last week?s clunker with Maryland at the top of these pages it is apparent that
we have to re-evaluate that status of Ralph Friedgan?s program. And with the lines
missing these two teams by 72 points last week, you can be sure that the oddsmakers
will make major adjustments as well. CALIFORNIA 31-19.
Baylor* over Washington State by 5
When the oddsmakers have no choice but to install Baylor as a favorite, it tells just
how bare the cupboard is in Pullman. Now let?s begin to watch bear QB Robert
Griffin develop. BAYLOR 28-23.
Buffalo* over Temple by 7
We keep doing double-takes every time that we study the box score between these
two from year ? 42-7 Buffalo on the scoreboard, with 414-141 in total offense. We
know that the talent gap is not that wide, but are in no hurry to play a correction
just yet. BUFFALO 26-19.
Tennessee* over U.A.B. by 34
Of course all of that Tennessee down time was spent preparing to defend Tim
Tebow next week. But Phil Fulmer is feeling just enough heat to give the home fans
plenty of celebration moments, and to also build some confidence for his team,
before that showdown. TENNESSEE 47-13.
East Carolina over Tulane* by 10
It is rare when the conference opener actually represents a letdown spot for a team,
but that is the case here for the Pirates, off of those Virginia Tech and West Virginia
upsets. And while Alabama may have indeed been yawning last week, we have to
attack at least some meaning to those Tulane defensive numbers (11 first downs,
172 yards and no offensive touchdowns allowed). EAST CAROLINA 27-17.
Marshall* over Memphis by 1
Thundering Herd could be in a fragile state after that good early showing at
Wisconsin turned into a 51-0 run-out over 2.5 quarters. But the Memphis defense
is not going to make many stops on the road. Or at home, for that matter. MARSHALL
31-30.
Connecticut* over Virginia by 8
The Huskies will bring more than the usual non-conference focus after losing a 17-
16 decision in the road to the Cavaliers last year, but it is not easy laying any points
at all with an offense that did not score a touchdown in regulation at Temple (and
did not score at all until the fourth quarter). CONNECTICUT 20-12.
Oklahoma over Washington* by 21
The nature of last week?s frustrating ending vs. Brigham Young can be devastating
for an already fragile Husky squad. And with the defense fading badly in the second
half of each of the first two games, that lack of depth is a huge problem against
the precision of Sam Bradford. OKLAHOMA 38-17.
Arizona over New Mexico* by 7
Mike Stoops has his Wildcats playing with a sense of urgency, in what is a pivotal
year for the program. And films of last year?s mistake-filled 29-27 home loss to
these Lobos should be enough to create plenty of spark on the practice fields this
week. ARIZONA 27-20.
Boise State* over Bowling Green by 13
Falcons appeared to actually come out too high against Minnesota last week, which
can happen to that level of program when the television spotlights are on. Now the
question is how much it affects their psyche going forward. BOISE STATE 37-24.
Utah over Utah State* by 21
Off of that big win at Ann Arbor, and off of a revenge affair vs. U.N.L.V., the Utes
are entitled to take this one off, particularly with a conference clash vs. Air Force
on deck. But the underdog just does not bring enough for us to take advantage of
the setting. UTAH 34-13.
San Jose State* over San Diego State by 7
The depleted Aztec defensive front actually held up well in South Bend, but does
that actually tell us more about the Fighting Irish? And will many notice just how
well the Spartans played in Lincoln last week, something that the scoreboard hides?
SAN JOSE STATE 27-20.
Michigan State* over Florida Atlantic by 19
With less than a minute to play at home vs. U.A.B. last week, Florida Atlantic led
by a TD, and was trailing in total offense, before a 73-yard TD run altered the general
appearance of both the scoreboard and the box score. But we know better.
MICHIGAN STATE 36-17.
Alabama* over Western Kentucky by 28
Nick Saban took matters so lightly against Tulane that he might feel the need to
crank back up at least a bit here, before opening SEC play at Arkansas next week.
ALABAMA 37-9.
Arkansas State* over Southern Miss by 3
After rolling for over 400 yards at Texas A&M, and 255 overland at 5.7 per rush,
the Red Wolves averaged 14.8 yards per snap vs. Texas Southern. That is correct,
per snap. So even though it was against weak competition, we have to begin to pay
some attention. ARKANSAS STATE 30-27.
Kentucky* over Middle Tennessee by 17
By beating Maryland outright, the Blue Raiders now have forewarned a Kentucky
team that is off next week. KENTUCKY 30-13.
Illinois* over UL-Lafayette by 21
The Cajuns can only do one thing right, which is to run the football. But two
weeks into the season, Illinois is allowing 201 yards per game overland, at 5.4 per
rush. And that includes four quarters against Eastern Illinois. ILLINOIS 44-23.
L.S.U.* over North Texas by 45
Since his Tigers did not get a chance to play last week, and with SEC play vs.
Auburn on deck, Les Miles needs a legitimate workout. The problem is that North
Texas can not supply one, so he may have to substitute early just to avoid bad
habits from setting in. L.S.U. 55-10.
Kansas State over Louisville* by 1 (Wednesday)
We are not enamored with the polish of the Wildcats, particularly away from
Manhattan. But until we see some kind of positive results from the Big East, all
shadings must be against that grouping in competitive non-conference affairs.
KANSAS STATE 28-27.

 

[kozski61]

Stat Fox Platinum Sheet


CFB:

9/12/08 (103) KANSAS at (104) S FLORIDA
Although pleased that my Best Bet on Kansas won last week against
Louisiana Tech, it became obvious to me in watching that game that this is
not the same Kansas team that took the field a year ago. Just the simple
score differentials in the first two games should show that. Last year, Kansas
won its first four games of the season by an average of 47.8 PPG, while
scoring 53.5 PPG. In the first two games of ?08, that margin has dropped to
29.5 PPG while the point production has been cut by 19 PPG. The reason is
obvious, a lot of changeover offensively. It?s going to hurt this week when they
play perhaps the toughest defensive opponent on the ?08 schedule, South
Florida. The Bulls have allowed just 2.8 yards per play thus far. Their offense,
behind all-everything QB Matt Grothe has also been superb, generating 1024
yards in the first two games. Had it not been for a -5 turnover differential thus
far, USF would be much higher priced than they
are now. HC Jim Leavitt?s team is tough as nails
at home and will be awfully tough to beat here.
Play: S Florida -3.5
9/13/08 (109) AUBURN at (110) MISSISSIPPI
ST
When looking at home underdogs on any given
week in a college football season, I tend to
gravitate towards a few different types of teams
to consider backing. First, the team should be
of quality and not simply an underdog because
they are so poor. Secondly, there should be
some glaring motivational factor, such as playing
against a conference rival. Thirdly, the home
pup should be a team that has demonstrated
a hunger to protect the home turf. Well, in all
three cases, I think Mississippi State fits the bill.
The Bulldogs are a program on the rise, coming
off a season in which they won their first bowl
game in several years. In the latter half of the
?07 season, they beat Kentucky, Alabama, Ole
Miss, and UCF, a strong set of foes. Here they
will be hosting conference rival Auburn and will
be backed by a nice ******* Super Situation:
Play On - Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - in
conference games, with an experienced QB returning as starter. (61-24 over
the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +34.6 units. Rating = 3*). The Tigers typically
don?t put up the big offensive numbers to cover big chalk spreads on the road
in SEC play. I?ll back the hosts.
Play: Mississippi St +10.5
9/13/08 (123) OREGON at (124) PURDUE
Oregon has ?wowed? the college football world in the early going by spanking
Washington and Utah State in its first two games while putting up 110 points.
Last week alone the Ducks bloated their offensive stats with 688 yards from
scrimmage. How could anyone possibly bet against this team with numbers
like that? Well, how about if they are finally playing a good team in a typically
tough and unfamiliar environment? This game at Purdue will be a stiff test
for HC Mike Belotti?s team, as Purdue is from the upper half of a power
conference and boasts one of the top senior quarterbacks in the nation in
Curtis Painter. He is fully capable of putting up big numbers himself. Plus, if
last week?s rout by Penn State over Oregon State is any indication, traveling
east for the Pac 10 is not easy. The Boilermakers are 10-7 SU & 7-5 ATS as a
home dog, 37-27 ATS overall at home. Expect them to play well here.
Play: Purdue +7.5
9/13/08 (153) STANFORD at (154) TCU
Some games on the college football schedule each week come off as
obvious blowout situations. Others are much more subtle, and these are the
games in which the bettor can get the most value in betting on a favorite.
Perception has a lot to do with this. TCU has
been an underrated team thus far, but has
been absolutely dominant defensively, yielding
just 2.9 yards per play. The Horned Frogs
have been their typically aggressive selves
too, forcing seven turnovers in two games.
At the same time, Stanford, though 1-1 thus
far including a seducing season opening win
against Oregon State, has been blasted for
481 YPG defensively thus far. In the Cardinal?s
last three road games, they?ve been beaten by
16, 17, and 24 points as well, and this might
be the toughest venue of the bunch. TCU is
12-4 ATS at home the L3 seasons, winning by
about 26 PPG. Don?t misread the conference
strengths here. TCU is the better team hands
down.
Play: TCU -12
9/13/08 (167) OHIO ST at (168) USC
College football betting is often a what have
you done for me lately endeavor. Bettors think
along those lines and oddsmakers build their
spreads accordingly. Such is the case as to
why USC is a double-digit favorite in this game.
For fun, let?s go back in the proverbial time machine just two weeks. At the
time, USC was ranked #3 behind Georgia and Ohio State. A convincing
win over a pedestrian Virginia team somehow vaulted the Trojans past both
clubs to the top spot. Meanwhile, an injury to RB Beanie Wells and a struggle
against Ohio University has nearly everyone down on the Buckeyes. Two
weeks ago, USC would have been favored by no more than a TD here.
Now, it is suddenly 10-1/2 points. Every game is played uniquely on its own
merits. It seems however, that this pointspread has been built upon way too
many other factors. Included in these factors are Ohio State?s consecutive
ugly national title game losses to SEC foes. This is still a very experienced
Buckeyes team, and one of the top teams in the country. They are 3-1 SU
& 4-0 ATS vs. Pac 10 teams, matching up better against Pac 10 style than
SEC. There?s no reason USC should win easily here. Grab the points.
Play: Ohio St +10.5




Stat Fox Platinum Sheet


NFL:

9/14/08 (197) NEW ORLEANS at (198) WASHINGTON
You?ll notice a trend in this week?s NFL Best Bets, and that is I?ve chosen
to continue fading some of the teams that looked worst last weekend.
Washington is one of those teams. The Redskins were awful offensively
against the Giants in Week 1. In fact, their performance was downright
?offensive? to anyone who loves the downfield passing game. What makes
it worst is that it wasn?t a matter of the Giants pass rush dominating the
line of scrimmage, it was simply that Washington and QB Jason Campbell
didn?t have a grasp on the new offense of HC Jim Zorn. While having 11
days off to alleviate the problems, this week?s pointspread against the
Saints doesn?t leave much room for error. The ?Skins will have to win
to cover. They just don?t look ready, and
historically, this franchise has not been good at
home early (7-21 ATS at home in September).
Meanwhile, New Orleans has always been a
better road spread covering team and has the
momentum of a big divisional win last week
to build upon. The Saints could be headed for
a nice turnaround in ?08. Ride them while the
price is right.
Play: New Orleans -2
9/14/08 (203) NY GIANTS at (204) ST
LOUIS
In the past, I?ve found myself making too many
plays on home underdogs simply because
they are in fact, home underdogs. I?ve always
believed that in the NFL, it?s tough to win on
the road, even when favored. However, I?ve
come to learn through many painful lessons
that bad teams are home underdogs for a
reason. St. Louis is a bad team. The results
of last week were no mistake, and while a bit
surprised at the enormity of the pointspread
in this game, the carryover article on PAGE 7
convinced me that there?s just little reason to think the Rams can even stay
in this game. After all, there home field advantage has been dismal of late
(8-16 ATS L3 years) and the Giants are probably THE best road team in all
the NFL right now (17-5 ATS L22).
Play: NY Giants -8
9/14/08 (205) BUFFALO at (206) JACKSONVILLE
A lot changes in the NFL from year-to-year, and just because teams like
Jacksonville and Cleveland were hot at the end of 2007, that doesn?t mean
that they will automatically pick up where they left off in 2008. Quite frankly,
after seeing Jacksonville play last weekend, the last thing the Jaguars
are deserving of is a near TD chalk pointspread. Their O-line was simply
abused by Tennessee, who held the supposedly powerful Jaguars ground
game to 33 yards while registering seven sacks as well. I?ll tell you one
thing, I am not comfortable betting favorites that might have issues upfront.
At the same time, do you think Buffalo?s excitement level about the 2008
season picked up a notch after last week?s win and announcement of the
Tom Brady injury in New England? The Bills legitimately have their sights
now set on the AFC East title. Confidence means so much in the NFL.
Buffalo has it, and is getting six points to boot.
Play: Buffalo +6
9/14/08 (207) ATLANTA at (208) TAMPA BAY
Atlanta looked awesome last week in turning back Detroit. In fact, the
offensive effort was not one seen in those
parts since about say?1998. So why are
the Falcons a 9-point dog in Week 2? Simply
because it is much different playing at home
against Detroit than it is playing in Tampa Bay.
This will be the first road test for rookie QB
Matt Ryan in the NFL, and it could be a painful
one, as few places match the combination
of atmosphere and defensive intensity as
Tampa. The Bucs were #1 in the NFL in yards
per play defense last season. They routed the
Falcons 37-3 in Week 14 to clinch the NFC
South Division title. Now, needing a win to
avoid falling two games back in the standings,
I expect them to shut down the Falcons and
roll. If you need statistical evidence as support,
note that John Gruden?s teams are 13-6 ATS
as home favorites of 7.5-14 points.
Play: Tampa Bay -9
9/14/08 (209) SAN FRANCISCO at (210)
SEATTLE
Lines of minus-9.5 poins are typically reserved
for the upper echelon teams in the NFL. I
don?t consider Seattle one of those teams, and last week?s performance in
Buffalo is enough evidence for me to confirm the Seahawks aren?t in that
group. This team is facing a lot of questions going forward, especially on
offense, where personnel changeover and injury woes have left a far from
potent attack. Against the Bills, that unit gained just 252 yards and 4.1 yards
per play. Meanwhile, San Francisco actually outgained Arizona 291-285
in the Week 1 loss. More dramatic, the difference in yards per play in that
contest was 7.3-4.1 in favor of the 49ers. In most cases, that would result
in a comfortable victory. Instead, five turnovers were the detriment. What
is left now is a team that actually outplayed its last opponent but lost and
whose hunger is motivated by the fact that they are a 9-1/2 point underdog
in an important divisional game. Take these points but don?t? be surprised if
the 49ers challenge for the outright win

 

[kozski61]

Sports Reporter


edit:admin

service has requested write-ups not be posted.

 

[kozski61]

Power Sweep


4H Penn St over SYRACUSE - The Syracuse dome advantage has been nonexistent (0-6 HD) and last year we used our College GOY on USF (-16?) here and it was an easy 41-10 winner. Syr is 7-5 ATS vs ranked teams and upset #18 L?ville in ?07. Penn St was just 1-4 as an AF LY but they are also 7-1 as a favorite vs non-conf. PSU QB Clark is making his 1st road start although the Lions fans will be well represented. LW Penn St rolled over Oregon St 45-14. Clark showed his grasp of the new Spread HD offense vs Oregon St and now faces our #106 def that allowed 478 yds to Akron. LW SU went with backup QB Dantley (former NBA?r Adrian?s son) but got similar results a 42-28 loss. HC Robinson is now 7-30 at Syracuse. This is an old rivalry that was played every year from 1922-?90 and Penn St leads the series 40-23-5. The Lions are 4-0 ATS as DD away fav since 1999 outscoring those opp?s 45-13!!! Could we go against Syracuse again as our September 5H? FORECAST: Penn St 52 SYRACUSE 10
3H BAYLOR over Washington St - A pair of new HC?s face off here as WSU QB Rogers makes his first true road start. The Cougs new hurry-up offense faltered in their conf opener LW vs Cal as they suffered a tremendous beatdown (3H Winner) falling 66-3 to the Golden Bears. Baylor HC Briles has his offense headed in the right direction with new QB Griffin going 15-19 for 294 yds w/4 ttl TD?s in their expected romp of IAA NW St. In 2006 Baylor went into Seattle and almost pulled the upset (+13) with WSU getting a last second 17 yd FG to win 17-15 (WSU 336-246 yd edge) in a gm in which Rogers made his college debut leading WSU on 2 successful drives in relief. The Cougars also delivered a 5H Bowl POY against Baylor in the ?94 Alamo Bowl. Wash St is 9-5 ATS in their road opener and has faced a similar off vs OKSt (367 ttl yds) while Baylor is 4-11 ATS at home. However, the Bears are 8-4 ATS off a SU win and have a new attitude with Briles at the helm. FORECAST: BAYLOR 30 Washington St 13
3H USF over Kansas - THIS IS OUR FRIDAY NIGHT MARQUEE GOY! USF has won 10 straight non conf HG?s (3-1 ATS) and beat #5 West Virginia 21-13 at home on a Friday night LY & had a huge win on the road over #17 Auburn. These two met in ?06 as we won with a 4H LPS on Kansas (-3?), 13-7. Last year we won our College 5H GOY on USF as they dominated Syracuse 41-10 (-16?). KU won all 5 road games LY (4-1 ATS), has 15 starters back and is ranked #13. Kansas took on the #100 schedule LY and finished #7 while USF took on the #24 schedule and after their embarrassing bowl loss fell out of the polls. Kansas is 2-9 SU in road openers while USF is 50-11 at Raymond James Stadium. LW QB Reesing threw for a career high 412 yds leading Kansas to a 29-0 win over LA Tech. USF squandered (look-ahead) a 14 point lead with less than 3:00 minutes left, but pulled off the OT win over UCF LW. USF has upset the L/3 ranked tms it has faced and HC Leavitt is 6-2 ATS vs ranked teams. The Bulls are our #1 Surprise Team and a Darkhorse National Title Contender with something to prove here. Leavitt will have USF pumped for this nationally televised meeting and this Fri Marquee GOY is free as our thanks for purchasing Power Sweep. FORECAST: USF 34 Kansas 17
OTHER SELECTIONS
2H NOTRE DAME over Michigan - LY ex-UM RB Hart vowed that the Wolves would win and they mauled ND 38-0 as both came in 0-2. UM is struggling as rFr QB Threet made his 1st start vs Miami but Sheridan guided the Wolves to its game clinching 4Q TD drive. HC Rodriguez admitted frustration that neither QB has taken command. Rod?s 1st WV team had a new QB & OL and lost 34-10 in its road opener. The veteran UM D has allowed 42 rush ypg (1.1) with 9 sks. Weis is 7-14 ATS at home including LW?s ugly 21-13 opening win over SDSt in which the Irish forced a goal line fmbl early 4Q while trailing 13-7. QB Clausen did rally the Irish with two 4Q TD passes. The Irish did miss a FG, botched another and fmbl?d away the ball on the SDSt 3. The dog is 11-2 ATS in the series. The Irish are the most improved team in the country and get legit revenge on a young offense in transition. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 23 Michigan 10
2H SOUTH CAROLINA (+) over Georgia - SC?s 16-12 upset (+3?) cost GA a potential BCS Champ shot LY. Afterwards Spurrier said, ?It?s not like they were some big, powerful tm.? That?s plenty of motivation and add in the fact that GA was held without a TD for the 1st time in 6 years. GA QB Stafford (PS#2) is off to a great start avg 244 ypg (63%) with a 4-0 ratio while RB Moreno (PS#14) has shined as the feature back (227, 8.7, 6 TD). SC has had a few extra days to prepare for this off their disappointing Thurs night upset loss to Vandy. SC lost 24-17 despite a 325-225 yd edge as ST?s & TO?s cost them. QB Beecher st?d the opener (12-22 for 106 with 4 int) and Smelley st?d the Vandy loss (28-44 for 325 yds, 4-2 ratio in 2 gms). Star WR McKinley suffered a hamstring inj and missed most of LW?s gm (check status). This is always an early ssn battle (1st 3 games L/16Y) and the defenses (both in top 5 TY) have dominated lately as they?ve avg?d 26 ppg the L/3Y. Georgia has won 3 in a row in Columbia by 9 ppg. Though Richt is 25-4 SU in opponents? stadiums, UGA is 2-4 ATS the L/2Y as an AF and Spurrier needs to win this gm to have any hope of competing in the SEC East race. FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 17 (+) Georgia 16
2H IOWA over Iowa St - Not only has Iowa St covered four straight with a pair of upsets (17 pt dog LY, 9 pt dog ?06) they?ve covered by 17 ppg. New Cyclone QB Arnaud (132 ypg, 77%, 2-0) is making his first road start and really hasn?t been challenged TY. ISU lost almost 50% of their letterman and it will be tough for this team to break an 11 game road losing streak (2-6 ATS run), but they are on a 4-1 SU & 3-1 ATS run. The Hawkeyes may have looked ahead the L2Y with conf road openers on deck but LY?s loss cost them a bowl so they?ll be attentive. Iowa rFr QB Stanzi tossed 3 TD (162 yds, 80%) in his 1st start LW but Ferentz says that the job remains open. Iowa has scored 17+ in just 4 of the last 10 meetings. Despite a 2-6 mark recently, Iowa is 24-11 ATS as a HF while Iowa St is 7-3 ATS in their first road game. LY Iowa St won without an off TD (see PH). Iowa has blown out its 1st 2 foes by a combined 88-3, outgaining them on avg by 266 ypg . Meanwhile, Iowa St has scored 40+ in its 1st 2 (most S/?76) as they?ve taken advantage of TO?s (+6) & ST play but they were outgained by Kent St LW (410-374). FORECAST: IOWA 38 Iowa St 17
OTHER GAMES
Thursday, September 11th - North Carolina at RUTGERS - In 2006 NC was at home (-4) and lost 21-16 but did come up empty on two drives deep into RU territory. They had a TD called back, were SOD and were int?d at the 21. NC has not won a road game outside the state of NC since 2002. An ACC team (Maryland) did come in here (+18?) and delivered another Big Dog Play outright upset in their 34-24 win LY. NC has 18 returning starters and while RU has 15 they must replace their key player RB Rice (2012 rush). The teams are fairly even on off with RU having the D (#32-72) and home edges. NC has a big ST?s edge (#62-116).
Saturday Games - DUKE 38 Navy 27 - The Mids have won 4 in a row vs Duke by an avg score of 35-22. LY QB Lewis threw for 428 yds & WR Riley had 235 yds & 4 TD?s as we won with a 4H College Totals play on OVER 53 and it went over in the 1H! Duke led 43-35 in the 4Q and covered by 11 with Navy getting a FG on the last play for the SU win. Duke has 17 returning starters and an upgrade at coach with Cutcliffe while Navy only has 13 returning starters and loses outstanding Coach Johnson and this is only Niumatalolo?s 3rd game as head man. Navy figures to have a good crowd which negates a home edge. Navy is coming off their Friday night loss to Ball St. SB White has rushed for 476 yds (14.9) in 2 gms. While Navy has the offensive edge (#45-83), Duke has a large defensive edge (#43-112) with a solid D front. Duke is in a new role as they have not been a favorite
since 2005 (-3 vs EC). LW Duke outgained NW 472-328 & outFD?d them 28-14 but key mistakes led to their demise. QB Lewis has 397 pass yds (59%) with a 2-0 ratio while true Fr J Williams has 13 rec (11.8). While Navy leads the series 20-12-5, Duke has a new sheriff in town who has instilled some confidence.
VANDERBILT 37 Rice 27 - Vandy is coming off a huge win at home, defeating S Carolina for a second straight year. Vandy was actually outgained 325-225 in the 24-17 win, but forced 3 SC TO?s. The Commodores have a few extra days of rest but wins are not the norm, and they are just 2-7 ATS after a SU win. Vandy?s QB Nickson has gone 14-22 with a 2-0 ratio vs 2 good defenses and now should have success against LY?s #102 pass D that has allowed 350 ypg in their 1st 2. Rice QB Clement?s numbers are down from where he left off LY (413 ypg pass L4 in ?07, 288 TY), but he has a 7-2 ratio and is completing nearly 62% during his first 2. Anytime Clement is at the helm the backdoor is open as Rice is 9-4 ATS as an AD. Johnson is 4-8 ATS as a HF and 5-10-1 vs non-conf. Rice has lost 13 in a row SU to BCS conf schools losing by an avg of 32 ppg (lost to Baylor by 25 LY!). Rice is more experienced with 16 ret sts (Vandy 9) but Vandy does have 6 starters back from a D that allowed just 296 ypg at home in ?07.
Auburn 23 MISSISSIPPI ST 6 - LY we won a 4H LPS on MSU as they upset Aub 19-14 (+13). Aub suffered 5 TO?s in that gm which ended the Tigers? streak of 14 consec SU wins in SEC openers (12-2 ATS). Aub did outgain MSU LY 323-213 and had outscored them by an avg of 38-7 the 4 years prior. In the L/5Y Auburn is 4-1-1 ATS playing an SEC team with revenge. Tuberville is also 8-1 ATS in SEC openers while MSU has lost 6 straight conf home openers incl 2 straight shutouts and is 2-6 ATS as an SEC HD. Aub QB Todd finally grabbed ahold of the starting job after hitting 21 of 31 for 248 yds LW and will make his 1st road start vs a Bulldogs D that all?d 49% comp at home LY and only 34% the L2W. MSU QB Carroll has avg 165 ypg (56%) with a 3-3 ratio in 2 gms. Aub has a large edge on offense (#40-109) and also an edge on def (#6-35). Aub?s D didn?t give up a pt in the 1st 102 mins of action TY and held SM to 6 yds in the 1Q LW. LY MSU gained just 135 ypg pass (excl Ark) and without the threat of the deep pass Aub will stack the line. This is a legitimate revenge game and Aub has won their L/3 in Starkville by 30 ppg while Miss St is 3-8 as a HD. We went against MSU in their opener and won a 3H LPS on LT and even though Aub has perhaps their most important gm of the season on deck (LSU), they should roll.
Ball St 37 AKRON 30 - The Cardinals are 1-11 S/?96 in road openers with the avg loss by 27 ppg but 10 of those loses were vs BCS teams and LY they won 38-16 (-3?) at E Mich. The HT is 5-1 SU with BSU?s last win here in 1993 (last met ?05). The Cardinals are 5-1 SU & ATS vs MAC East tms. Akron is 6-3 SU in home openers and this is the final season at the historic Rubber Bowl. Akron covered all 4 in the HD role the L/3Y with 3 outright upsets and almost beat MAC Champ C Mich in ?07. Akron is off a 42-28 (+4?) win over Syracuse with a 478-353 yd edge but was tied at 28 in the 4Q. Ignore the current stats as Akron has faced the far tougher schedule so far with two BCS conf tms (1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS) on the road. Ball St has the off (#37-79) and D (#82-102) edges.
Toledo 28 E MICHIGAN 24 - Both teams are off losses as DD AD. However Toledo was outgained in their season opener 452-244 by Arizona, while EM was only outgained 418-342 by Mich St, had a TD called back (holding) and was stopped at the 1 yd line on a fake FG. UT HC Amstutz opened 14-0 vs Michigan MAC schools but is on a 1-6 SU run. UT is 14-4 SU vs EM winning by an avg of 21 ppg and losing by an avg of 4 ppg. EM is 3-9 SU in MAC openers but Toledo is 0-5 ATS as an AF. Toledo lost their last trip here but won at home in ?07, 52-28 with a 610-417 yd edge. EM is 3-5-1 as a HD. Toledo rates a large edge on offense (#70-104) but EM has a large ST edge (#64-117) and is at home. The defenses are almost identical (EM #92-UT#94).
MISSOURI 49 Nevada 21 - 1st meeting. In 4 of MU HC Pinkel?s first 5 yrs at Mizzou, the Tigers lost SU to a non-BCS team unexpectedly (BG twice, Troy & NM) but MU has since soared to new heights. Mizzou has won 16 of its L/19 gms going on a 13-3 ATS run during that stretch. The Tigers are 13-1 SU & 9-2 ATS at home s/?02 vs non-conf tms. MU has the edge on off (#12-25), def (#58-85) & ST (#81-97). Nevada is 1-12 SU & 5-7 ATS vs ranked tms since ?95. The Wolf Pack is 1-11 SU but is 5-4 ATS away vs BCS tms with the lone SU win at Washington in ?03 (28-17, +17?). UN HC Ault dropped his first 7 gms as an AD but is 4-2 since. This is the Wolf Pack?s road opener & UN allowed 483 ypg away in ?07. UN has had 2 road gms vs ranked BCS tms in the L/2Y & mailed it in with losses by an avg of 52-15 (Neb 52-10 in ?07, ASU 52-21 in ?06). UN has a bye on deck while MU hosts Buffalo next.
TEXAS TECH 52 Smu 14 - In HC Jones? first year at Hawaii the team went from 13 ppg to 31 ppg. LW SMU led 30-6, had its 2nd most pass TD?s (Mitchell had 370 yds, 65%, 5-0) in a gm, 1st pair of 100+ WR?s S/?99 and snapped an 11 gm losing streak. The Mustangs have gone 4-1 ATS as a DD dog but have struggled vs Leach?s offense going 1-3 ATS while getting outscored by 34 ppg. Tech has been less than impressive so far with Harrell avg 417 ypg (60%) with just a 3-3 ratio as they were outgained LW 488-421. SMU will catch some tms unprepared for the pass attack but this TT D practices against one of the best daily and saw another mobile QB who likes to throw LW holding Nev?s Kaepernick to 264 yds (not bad for the Pistol off). Leach also has a big ego and will want to show who the state of Texas? premier pass attack is. Jones said his new offense probably would not hit stride until after Wk 3. Leach is 23-13-1 as a HF and only has a IAA and a bye on deck. TT is 12-0 SU (9-3 ATS) vs SMU S/?89 winning every gm by DD?s (avg margin of victory 28 ppg) incl 49-9 LY. Harrell has avg?d 381 ypg (72%) with a 9-1 ratio in 2 starts vs SMU (just 6Q?s). Look for the Red Raiders to handle the Mustangs in this old SWC rivalry as Leach can?t be happy with LW?s performance. TT delivered one of our favorite 5H winners of all-time, a 70-10 demolishing (-7) of Neb at home in ?04. Is SMU next?
NEBRASKA 52 New Mexico St 17 - Nebraska set school records with 677 rush yards and 883 total yards in their last mtg in 1982. Neb was just #84 in pass D LY and lost 6 of their top 8 in the secondary. A surprising stat is that LY Nebraska threw for 324 ypg and NMSt 332, almost identical and both had losing records. Neb has played 2 gms already but this will mark NMSt?s opener (bye & hurricane). Husker QB Ganz is avg 281 ypg (61%) with a 4-3 ratio and the secondary is allowing 279 ypg (60%) with a 2-3 ratio. Aggies are 4-12 as an AD and have their top rivals on deck but they do have a veteran QB in Holbrook. The Aggies were outscored by a 47-18 avg on the road in ?07. Neb was solid vs WM, but LW led SJSt early 4Q 14-12 before a KR TD & the Spartans lost their starting QB (outgained 353-315). Huskers need a feel-good win and should hold nothing back with a bye on deck. Pelini will have his sights set on a 3-0 start as no tm will be taken lightly after no bowl LY. We have used Nebraska numerous times as 5H?s incl ?06 when they delivered as the Game of the Year! Will we give Pelini his first honor?

OTHER COLLEGE GAMES cont from page 3
BYU 31 Ucla 23 - 3rd meeting in 370 days and LY the tm that deserved to win lost both. In Sept, BYU had a 435-236 yd edge but lost 27-17. In the bowl UCLA was depleted at QB but had a 316-265 yd edge but had their chip shot 28 yd FG on the gm?s final play blk?d and lost 17-16. UCLA OC Chow spent nearly two decades as OC with BYU. BYU is 8-3 as a HF but UCLA is 5-1 as an AD. UCLA had a bye LW but RB Bell, WR Everett and TE Paulsen are exp to miss here (check status). QB Craft will not be intimidated here as he was thrown in as starter while at SDSt (inj?s to top 4 QB) and hit 20-32 for 216 vs BYU with a couple of 3Q TD drives. BYU is off a 28-27 win (1st non-conf AG win S/?02) vs Wash helped by a very ?? celebration pen (blk xp) after Locker ran it in w/:02 left. QB Hall is avg 412 ypg (78%) with a 5-1 ratio. After a 213 yd performance in the opener, WR Pitta topped 100 LW (10 rec, 17.2 on yr) and RB Unga has 200 yd (4.9). We won a 3H LPS going vs BYU LW playing a P10 team but they win the rubber match against the beaten up Bruins. BYU has delivered numerous 5H GOY?s. Will they get the call again.
Oregon 44 PURDUE 27 - Oreg is 8-1 ATS away vs non-conf and 5-0 ATS away vs the B10 incl LY?s win at Mich. Despite inj?s the Ducks offense (#5) is avg 29 FD/gm, 592 ypg & 55 ppg. QB Roper (concussion in opener) started in their 66-24 wipeout of USU, a 2H winner on these pages, but #1 TB Johnson (shoulder) had to leave the game in the 1st series (check status). Ducks underrated D (#21) has allowed just 2 TD drives by the 1st string so far. The secondary will give Boiler QB Painter his 1st ?08 test. The Boilers are just 1-5 ATS home vs non-conf and are not as battle tested having only beaten IAA N Col, a game in which they were outFD?d 22-17 & had 2 blk?d P?s set up TD?s. PU is 1-3 as a HD and hasn?t beaten a ranked team at home SU S/?03. In their L/4 vs power teams PU has come up short getting manhandled by Ohio St, Mich, Penn St and Wisky.
TEXAS 48 Arkansas 13 - Texas last hosted Ark in ?03 and was upset (-13?) 38-28 which broke a 20 game home win streak. QB McCoy has put the ?soph slump? talk to sleep with a 252 pass ypg avg (76%) with a 7-1 ratio and is also the tm?s top rusher. He will feast on a young Ark secondary that allowed ULM QB Lancaster to throw for 270 yds LW. Ark QB Dick has adjusted well to Petrino?s offense avg 321 ypg (63%) with a 4-1 ratio and has led the tm to wins on their final drives in each of the L2 wks. Hog RB Smith rushed for 157 yds & 2 TD?s after missing the opener (susp). The second mismatch will be an improved UT DL against an Ark OL getting their 1st true test in pass blocking in their first road game. The scheduling edge also goes to UT with Rice on deck and the Hogs having their SEC opener vs Bama. This used to be one of the best rivalries in the NCAA and most assuredly was the focus of UT?s preseason prep with Brown being 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS vs the Hogs. This is the only BCS tm the Horns face in the first 5 wks. UT is 9-3 as a HF of 17+ and we won our Underdog POW on ULM last week as they almost pulled the outright upset. This is a big step up in competition for Petrino & Co after struggling to get past W Ill and ULM in the first 2 wks. Also UA?s young tm (15 true frosh plyd in opener incl 6 starters!), with only 10 starters back from LY, has a more important gm on deck. We have used Ark 6 times as a 5H, will we do it again?
HOUSTON 37 Air Force 24 - 1st meeting. Service Academies have the rep of being great travelers but AF is just 8-13 SU (4-2 ATS LY) on the road. This is UH?s only HG vs a IA foe this month and they are 5-10 ATS in their first lined HG. AF is in a huge MWC sandwich beating WY LW and facing Utah next week. QB Smith has only passed for 90 yds (69%) with a 1-1 ratio but is the #2 rusher (134, 4.2) while Halderman leads with 172 rush yd (19.1!). Hou built a 16-14 HT lead LW (all OKSt pts off UH TO?s) but couldn?t hold off the Cowboys in the 2H in a 56-37 loss, delivering us a 2H College Total win on the OVER. Hou gave up 699 yds ttl off (#2 OKSt hist). QB Keenum is avg 390 ypg (65%) with a 9-0 ratio and his fav target is WR Hafner with 182 rec yds (12.1). While Hou?s DC Skladany has his work cut out facing the OkSt pass attack one week foll by AF?s option this week, AF?s D (only all?d 173 ypg pass w/8 sks in 1st 2) is traveling to take on our #39 off, in their toughest test yet.
OREGON ST 38 Hawaii 17 - OSU returns home for the 1st time this ssn after being hammered in Happy Valley 45-14. LY?s dominating rush D has now allowed 225 rush ypg this ssn after finishing #1 in the NCAA LY giving up just 71 ypg! Riley is 15-0 SU at home vs non-conf opponents (OSU has won 24 straight) and in 2006 his unranked Beavers were fresh off their big win in the Civil War and came away with the upset win on the islands against a #24 Hawaii squad 35-32 (+8?) despite being outgained 504-326. The Warriors actually trailed IAA Weber St 17-7 at the half before establishing themselves in the 2H for the 19 pt win as QB Graunke relieved 1st time starter Funaki (just 87 pass yds). They do have a trip to the Swamp under their belt and a bye next week but are still a young team (8 ret sts) playing in front of a loud Corvallis crowd. While OSU has just 3 starters back on D, they do have one of the top CB combos in the NCAA and were #10 in our pass D rankings LY (153 ypg allowed, 54.5% TY). With OSU off 2 losses and a bye on deck, LY?s Sugar Bowl participant will have their full attention. We?re 2-0 on 5H games involving Oregon St. Do we make it 3-0?
FRESNO ST 27 Wisconsin 23 - Fresno plays ?anyone, anywhere, anytime? but this one is in front of the Red Wave. Under Hill, the Bulldogs have hosted 5 current BCS teams going 4-1 SU & ATS. The Bulldogs won 24-7 at Rutgers on Labor Day despite being outFD?d 22-16 as Brandstater and Ajirotutu hooked up for 2 crucial big plays which broke open a scoreless game at the half. Fresno did allow 5.0 ypc rush LY but just 106 yds (3.1) in the opener. UW QB Evridge hit 17-26 for 308 yds as the Badgers scored the gm?s L/51 pts in a 51-14 win over Marshall. RB Hill had only 57 yds LW as the Herd loaded the box. TE Beckum & LB Casillas haven?t played in the 1st 2 but both are expected back here. The Badgers are 0-4 as an AD under Bielema (opened as 1? fav). FSU upset UW in Madison in 2001 and almost repeated in ?02 losing 23-21 (+9?). The red t-shirts have been printed all summer with this game being the focus of the season and emotions will be at a crescendo for the ?red wave?.
VIRGINIA TECH 21 Georgia Tech 17 - The winner of the four ACC gms in this series has an avg margin of victory of 23 ppg. We used GT as a 3H LPS in their last trip to Blacksburg and they actually dominated leading 38-13 after 3Q as a 10 pt dog! LY we used VT as our Thurs Night ESPN play and they dominated GT on the road 27-3 as a 3 pt dog! This is the first matchup for a Bud Foster D vs a Paul Johnson option offense. GT does have just 9 starters back (VT 10) and their young QB is taking on a confusing D. Johnson is 14-4 ATS as an AD but GT has the youngest squad in the ACC w/75 Fr & So and it showed LW as the offense only managed 235 ttl yds but they somehow pulled out the 19-16 win over BC. RB Dwyer has rushed for 220 yds (7.6) and QB Nesbitt has 110 (4.2). GT has the offensive edge (#59-85) but VT has a slight defensive edge (#36-44) and solid sp tms edge (#50-84). Beamer is 10-3 as a conf DD fav but the dog has been dangerous in this series.

 

[kozski61]

Power Sweep continued

CLEMSON 38 NC State 7 - Clemson has won 4 in a row SU in the series and LY dominated more than the final of 42-20 would indicate as they had 200-1 yard edge after 4 poss and rolled up a 608-192 yard edge. Clemson has avg 269 ypg rush the last 3 meetings. The dog is 5-1 ATS and the visitior is 7-1 ATS in the series. Clemson, who has 16 starters back, is playing their ACC opener in a IAA sandwich so they will give their ?A? game especially after their embarrassing 34-10 loss to Bama on National TV in Wk 1. NCSt only has 10 ret starters but O?Brien is 9-3 ATS as an AD. QB Beck, who took over for the inj?d Wilson, has passed for 246 yds (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. Wilson however, is expected to return & start here (check status). RB Brown has rushed for 144 yds (3.8). Clemson is 8-12 as a HF. The Tigers have the edge on both sides of the ball (off #31-97, def #30-83). QB Harper has passed for 380 yds (65%) with a 1-1 ratio. RB Davis has 120 yds (6.3) and Spiller 82 (10.3). When you expect Bowden to win, he tanks so now the Tigers should roll with lowered expectations.
W Michigan 34 IDAHO 17 - This is only Idaho?s 6th non-conf true HG vs a IA tm since moving up to IA in ?96. LY Idaho hosted N Ill and it was a strange one as the Huskies led 35-7 thanks to 2 return TD?s but only won 42-35. Idaho had a 606-356 yd edge but had 3 long drives in the 4Q with the game out of reach. Cubit is 1-4 as an AF but Akey is 0-5 ATS in the Kibbie Dome. After being demolished in their opener vs Arizona (outgained 521-112), the Vandals beat IAA Idaho St 42-27 thanks to a blocked punt and being +3 TO?s as they only had a 419-397 yd edge and were outFD?d 25-18. WM is off a 3 pt win over NI but were outFD?d 23-19 and outgained 439-384. Idaho has their WAC opener on deck, while WM will host IAA Tenn Tech. Idaho QB Enderle has just 218 total pass yds while WM QB Hiller is avg 264 ypg (64.6%) with a 5-1 ratio (342 yd vs Nebraska). WM has a huge edge on off (#64-118) and def (#70-116) and has traveled to tougher places to play the last couple years (Neb, Iowa, Missou, WV, Fla St & Virginia).
C Michigan 31 OHIO 30 - CM is on an 11-1 run SU away from home vs the MAC (7-3-1 ATS). Rematch of the 2006 MAC Title gm when CM outgained Ohio 457-224. OU has won 5 straight home openers (4 vs IAA), including 2005?s OT upset of Pitt 16-10. CM has the more veteran squad but Solich is 4-2 ATS as a HD. Ohio almost beat Wyoming on the road in Wk 1 and put a scare into #3 Ohio St as they led 14-12 into the 4Q before giving up 14 unanswered pts (2-0 ATS). The Bobcats were only outFD?d 17-15 and outgained 272-254. CM didn?t worry #2 Georgia as they were outgained 552-309. CM is 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS vs MAC East tms while Ohio is 5-4 SU & ATS vs MAC West tms since 2005. Ohio starting QB Scott was knocked out of the OSU game (check status). His backup Boo Jackson (PS#63JC) had 55 yds rushing but hit just 9 of 25 pass att (86 yd) with 3 int. QB LeFevour is avg 234 ypg (60%) with a 5-1 ratio. CM has the offensive edge (#30-102) but Ohio has the defensive edge (#51-113).
California 31 MARYLAND 17 - 1st meeting. Cal makes their 1st visit to the EST S/?01 fresh off their ssn opening win vs Mich St and LW?s demolition (3H LPS Winner!!) of WSU where they handed the Cougars their most lopsided loss in the 69-game series. The RB duo of Best and Vereen impressed again rushing for a combined 280 yds on just 23 carries (12.2). MD dropped the ball LW against MTSt as QB Turner completed just 46% of his passes w/3 costly int in his 1st start of ?08. The Terps continued their struggles during the 1st 3 gms of the ssn moving their current ATS run to just 1-12. The Terps are 4-11 ATS vs non-conf opponents but you have to believe the Fridge made this game his main priority in the 1st month of the ssn. Cal has big edges on off (#7-74) and def (#13-62). The Bears have won 5 of 6 road games vs non-conf foes and need a strong showing here to keep up their early ssn momentum in preparation for the rest of their P10 slate.
TCU 41 Stanford 13 - After delivering a winning performance in Wk 1, the Cardinal lost convincingly for the 3rd consec ssn vs ASU LW in Tempe giving us a 4H Top Weekly LPS Winner and now move on to Fort Worth with revenge on their minds after blowing a 31-17 3Q lead to TCU LY in Palo Alto (Stanford is 6-2 ATS in 2nd of a B2B road). TCU is 10-2 SU vs BCS conf schools and comes into this gm somewhat under the radar with all the MWC talk being about BYU and Utah despite solid performances vs NM and IAA foe SF Austin LW. The Frogs are 10-4 as a HF (8-3 as a DD fav) and arguably have the best D in the MWC (165 ttl yds allowed, 3 ppg, 19 ttl FD?s all?d) which could prove to be troublesome for a Stanford team who is making a 2nd straight road trip into a hotter climate.
BUFFALO 20 Temple 17 - This is the MAC opener for both teams. TU was ?welcomed? into MAC play LY vs UB as they were outgained 414-141 (-36 yds rush). LY at Buffalo, TU had 11 true Fr play (9 others 1st start), fielding the youngest tm in school history. Buf was 3-1 at home vs the MAC LY with 3 DD wins. Temple is 2-29 SU on the road. Buf is 2-0-1 all-time as a HF. Both teams are very experienced with Temple having all 22 starters back. Both teams are 1-1 SU with loses to Big East teams but are 2-0 ATS. The Owls led Conn 6-0 until the 4Q in a steady rain but lost in OT by 3 and were outFD?d 21-10 and outgained 379-298. The Bulls hung tough with Pitt trailing 17-16 in the 4Q and were only outgained 352-348 (each had 22 FD). Temple has the defensive edge (#48-73) but Buffalo has the offensive edge (#57-112) and the Bulls RB Starks has 276 yds (5.4) which is more than the Owls entire team (212, 3.3). LY?s dominance by Buffalo on the road is worth noting.
TENNESSEE 48 Uab 13 - UAB has already faced CUSA?s #1 team Tulsa (outgained 601-414), the SBC?s #1 team FAU (outgained (554-482) and now travels for a 2nd straight week to face an SEC team. The Blazers finished LY in the bottom 10% in both off and def and while overmatched LY they did cover 4 of their first 5. UAB?s off is led by QB Webb who has avg 248 ypg (54%) with a 4-1 ratio and is also the tm?s top rusher with 202 (5.6). Tenn has had 2 weeks to stew over a Labor Day loss (6-1-1 ATS off a loss) and Fulmer will want to work out his offensive concerns (QB Crompton 19-41 for 189 yds, 1 int) with Florida on deck. The biggest mismatch this week is UAB?s DL which allowed 5.7 ypc rush LY (6.9 TY) vs the Tenn OL which allowed FOUR sks LY and rushed for 5.7 ypc at home vs non-conf. UT was on a 10-26 ATS run as a HF but was 4-1-1 LY. While UT only won their last meeting 17-10 (-21?) in ?05, they have covered their L/2 at home vs CUSA. UT has large edges on off (#22-94) & defense (#27-114). UAB plays BCS schools tough losing the L/5 but 4 of those were by 10 points or less. UT needs some confidence however and will make a strong showing at home and Fulmer is 17-9-1 ATS off a SU loss since 2000.
East Carolina 27 TULANE 10 - EC is 7-2 SU (3-6 ATS) vs Tulane with both losses being in the dome. The HT is now 7-2 in this series. LY EC jumped out to a 21-6 halftime lead and rolled 35-12 at home (-12). EC is coming off 2 straight upset wins against BCS schools (V Tech, WV) and has another one on deck (NC State). The Pirates controlled the game against WVU, outgaining them 386-251. QB Pinkney has completed an amazing 80% in the first 2, with a 2-0 ratio. The Pirate D held WVU?s explosive QB White to 169 total yds. Tulane is coming off a tough 20-6 loss to Bama in which they outgained the Tide 318-172. TU?s special teams let them down as they allowed a PR TD, missed 2 FG?s (41, 23) and all?d a blk?d punt for a TD. Both teams have veteran squads but this is TU?s 2nd game while EC is in their 3rd (Tulane lost to Houston 34-10 in a similar situation LY). TU is 3-10-1 as a HD and 4-11 ATS in home openers while Holtz is 2-2 as an AF. EC has excelled as a dog but being a big road favorite is another story.
MARSHALL 38 Memphis 26 - LY Memphis won 24-21 with backup Hudgens at QB. He threw for a career high 346 yds as we won our ESPN Thurs Night play. Both teams are coming off losses. Memphis (0-2) dominated early but lost to Rice LW after allowing 29 4Q pts. The Tigers outgained Rice 523-430. QB Hall completed 29-38 (76%) for 373, but threw 2 int, with the 2nd being ret?d for the gm winning score with only :11 left in the gm. Marshall is coming off a loss to Wisc in which they actually led 14-0, before allowing 51 unanswered pts. Marshall HC Snyder is 8-5-1 ATS at home and this is their only IA home opp this month. They have 17 starters back and make our Most Improved list. Memphis is just 2-8 ATS in CUSA road openers and 12-18 in CUSA road gms. The HT has covered all 3 meetings.
CONNECTICUT 31 Virginia 10 - Last year in their first ever meeting the Cavs squeaked out a 17-16 win at home (see PH). Conn has won 8 straight (7-1 ATS) at Rentschler Field and is 24-13-1 ATS at home this decade. The Huskies have 17 ret starters while Virginia has just 11 and has a young QB and OL making their first road trip. LY the Cavs were 3-0 ATS as an AD but in their last rebuilding year (?06) VA went 0-5 ATS. LW Conn edged out Temple in OT 12-9 on the back of RB Brown who had a career high 214 yds. He helped overcome sloppy play incl 3 missed FG?s that had them trailing 6-0 after 3Q in poor weather conditions (rain/wind). VA pitched a shutout over IAA Richmond 16-0 despite having only a 3 pt lead after 3Q. The Huskies have the off (#58-90) & def (#31-53) edges. HC Edsall will have Conn prepared after LW?s scare and look for the Huskies to avenge LY?s loss




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[kozski61]

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[the duke]

THE GOLD SHEET - NFL

KEY RELEASES
KANSAS CITY by 14 over Oakland
TAMPA BAY by 20 over Atlanta
OVER THE TOTAL in the Chicago-Carolina game

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14
KANSAS CITY 24 - Oakland 10?Third start overall and first on the road for JaMarcus Russell, who will experience the unique ?pleasure? of trying to direct his team amid the cacophany of arguably the NFL?s noisiest stadium.Brodie Croyle (0-7 as a starter; check status) finally beginning to face opposing QBs with even less experience than his own. Raider RBs (Fargas, McFadden,Bush) imposing, but Oakland OL and WRs not. Will count on improving young Chiefs? defense and K.C.?s crowd to fluster Russell into mistakes.
(07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1)
(07-Oak. 20-K. CITY 17...O.19-18 K.37/164 O.29/153 O.15/22/0/159 K.12/23/1/128 O.1 K.0)
(07-Kansas City +2' 12-10, Oakland +4' 20-17...SR: Kansas City 52-44-2)


TAMPA BAY 26 - Atlanta 6?A rookie QB (Matt Ryan) on a rebuilding team (Atlanta) with a rookie head coach (Mike Smith) is NOT a good combination for facing the most-developed of the usually-confusing, two-deep, zone-blitz defenses now simply dubbed the ?Tampa Two? scheme throughout football. Especially with that combination on the road, and especially when the Bucs dominated the Falcs LY (before Michael Turner, however), winning twice by a total score of 68-10! T.B. offense perfectly average (worse than average if Jeff Garcia & Joey Galloway not in tune), but stop unit expert at producing opponent mistakes.
(07-T. Bay 31-ATL. 7...15-15 T.31/149 A.19/49 A.31/48/2/226 T.11/21/0/156 T.2 A.2)
(07-T. BAY 37-Atl. 3...T.21-5 T.48/190 A.20/106 T.15/25/1/95 A.4/15/2/27 T.0 A.2)
(07-Tampa Bay -3 31-7, TAMPA BAY -12' 37-3...SR: Tampa Bay 17-12)


OVER THE TOTAL Chicago 27 - CAROLINA 26?Kudos to Steve Smith-less Carolina and to Jake Delhomme (and his surgeons) for their lastplay victory at San Diego. However, the running of rookie Matt Fort? (123 yards) and the nearly-mistake-free play of Kyle Orton (13 of 21, no ints.) was a big boost not only to the Bear offense, but to the Chicago defense, which was both injured and overworked LY. Must be impressed with Lovie?s depth on the DL especially with DTs Harris and Dvoracek both healthy, plus impressive thirdround pick Marcus Harrison of Arkansas. With Jake back for Panthers,however, will look ?over? again in Charlotte.


CINCINNATI 16 - Tennessee 13?Situation hardly comforting these days in Cincy, where problems are running a bit deeper than the NFL disallowing ?Ocho Cinco? on jersey of the artist formerly known as Chad Johnson. Getting its ground game in gear (Chris Perry only a puny 2.1 ypc in first game as Rudi Johnson?s replacement) might be easier said than done vs. stout Tennessee run defense. But Titans not looking especially explosive themselves, with Vince Young (knee) and speedy rookie RB Chris Johnson both injured last week (check status). ?Under? might be a better idea.
(07-CINCY 35-Ten. 6...C.30-10 C.36/148 T.18/61 C.32/38/1/278 T.19/31/1/244 C.0 T.1)
(07-CINCINNATI +1 35-6...SR: Tennessee 38-32-1)


Indianapolis 27 - MINNESOTA 16?Indy run defense will give up a bunch of yards to Adrian Peterson, but its pass rush and ball-hawking secondary should prove major problems for young Vike QB Tarvaris Jackson, especially with LT McKinnie serving second game of his suspension. Moreover, 32ndranked Minny pass defense must prove it can contain Peyton Manning, who should be less rusty and quicker on his feet after opening-game loss.Remember, however, that the rebuilt interior of the Colts? OL must deal with the granite-like Williams-Williams DT duo of the Vikes. Minny only 2-5 last 7 as home dog.
(04-INDIANAPOLIS -7 31-28...SR: Indianapolis 14-7-1)


New Orleans 24 - WASHINGTON 17?When is Jason Campbell going to start resembling a real No. 1 QB in the NFL? The fact he?s absorbing his seventh offensive system in eight years (at Auburn, then Washington) has something to do with it. Campbell appears far from mastery of Jim Zorn?s version of the West Coast system, especially if Campbell?s stuttering opening performance vs. the Giants is any indication. Even with Deuce McAllister?s return to active duty on hold due to lingering knee issues, there?s a lot more offensive competence on New Orleans, especially with Drew Brees (343 YP & 3 TDP vs. Bucs) apparently in midseason form.
(06-Washington +9' 16-10...SR: Washington 14-7)


DETROIT 23 - Green Bay 16?First road start for Aaron Rodgers, with Packers only 5-5 SU their last 10 trips to the Motor City. Without Favre?s help with the offense, more is likely to be asked of the Packer defense TY, with CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson facing younger and more-physical Detroit WRs Roy Smith and Calvin Johnson. Lions? defense still has holes, as Falcons (474 total yards) exposed last week. But is Rodgers ready yet to exploit them? We?ll say no.
(07-G. Bay 37-DET. 26...25-25 D.30/134 G.17/100 G.31/41/0/381 D.19/40/1/197 G.1 D.0)
(07-G. BAY 34-Det. 13...G.19-16 G.38/217 D.17/47 D.22/48/2/246 G.16/26/0/177 G.1 D.0)
(07-Green Bay -3' 37-26, GREEN BAY -4' 34-13...SR: Green Bay 86-64-7


NY Giants 23 - ST. LOUIS 10?Maybe St. Louis isn?t as bad as it looked in its opener at Philly. Then again, maybe it is! After all, it was no secret Rams? banged-up OL was a mess, and that Steven Jackson might be rusty after his holdout and hamstring woes kept him out of preseason. Without much pass rush to bother Eli Manning, it?s hard to see the overworked Ram defense compensating for any offensive shortcomings. Meanwhile, the re-tooled Giants? stop unit looked just fine, with d.c. Steve Spagnuolo still having plenty quality athletes available. The G-men were supreme road warriors LY, winning their last 11 away from Meadowlands (10-1 vs. line!)!
(05-NY GIANTS -3 44-24...SR: St. Louis 26-13)


JACKSONVILLE 17 - Buffalo 16?Not sure we trust Jacksonville to recover from its ugly 17-10 opening loss at Tennessee, especially with OL injuries mounting alarmingly (three more hurt vs. Titans, not to mention top backup Richard Collier?s absence due to gunshot wounds) and protection breaking down for David Garrard, sacked 7 times in Nashville. New WRs Jerry Porter (hamstring) & Troy Williamson yet to provide the deep threat intended.Buffalo?s? offense has more bite now that second-year QB Edwards reading defenses more quickly. Dynamic Bills? ST helped scuttle Seattle in opener.
(07-JACK. 36-Buf. 14...J.21-20 J.26/124 B.24/94 J.23/37/0/292 B.27/40/2/203 J.1 B.1)
(07-JACKSONVILLE -8' 36-14...SR: EVEN 4-4)


SEATTLE 27 - San Francisco 13?Seattle?s WR situation getting desperate, especially after Nate Burleson (knee; check status) was shelved in the Buffalo game after Bobby Engram, Deion Branch, and Ben Obamanu were already out with injury. RB Maurice Morris (knee) also hurting. However,Seattle?s resiliency when returning home?where Seahawks are 19-8-1 vs. spread last 28 games?should not be underestimated. Nor should the QB edge and coaching edge owned by the host. Niners fall behind too early, too often to be trusted.
(07-Sea. 23-S. FRAN. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)
(07-SEA. 24-S. Fran. 0...Se.27-6 Se.36/106 Sf.16/79 Se.27/40/1/274 Sf.12/28/0/94 Se.1 Sf.2)
(07-Seattle -2 23-3, SEATTLE -9' 24-0...SR: Seattle 10-8)


ARIZONA 20 - Miami 17?After six losses by a FG LY, Miami battled Brett Favre and the Jets on pretty even terms for much of last week?s opener,showing enough positives to make them worth a look. Rushing attack should improve as LT Jake Long develops and Ricky Williams & Ronnie Brown get back in the groove. Chad Pennington quickly gaining rapport with TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin. Kurt Warner a savvy?but not mobile?field general.
(04-Arizona +3 24-23...SR: Miami 8-1)


NY JETS 23 - New England 13?It took less than one quarter for the Super Bowl runner-up jinx to click in, with Tom Brady felled by a major knee injury.Now, the question is whether the proud Patriots, suddenly finding themselves underdogs for the first time since the 2006 playoffs, will rise up behind Matt Cassel (13 of 18, 1 TD in opener; Chris Simms and others to get tryouts this week). However, the truth is N.E.?s OL, ground game, and?at times?the defense were beginning to disappoint. Mangini?s Jets have always played Belichick tough; Favre vs. Cassel might now be the difference.
(07-N. Eng. 38-JETS 14...Ne.28-17 Ne.37/134 Ny.19/60 Ne.22/28/0/297 Ny.21/31/0/167 Ne.0 Ny.0)
(07-N. ENG. 20-Jets 10...Ne.16-13 Ne.35/131 Ny.17/90 Ny.25/40/1/146 Ne.14/27/1/134 Ne.0 Ny.1)
(07-New England -6' 38-14, NEW ENGLAND -21 20-10...SR: EVEN 48-48-1)


HOUSTON 24 - Baltimore 13?Will side with the up and down nature of the NFL, as Houston is desperate to avoid an 0-2 start. Baltimore rookie QB Joe Flacco avoided major mistakes (no sacks, no ints.) in opener, plus running for a 38-yard TD! But Raven defense, which stuffed troubled Cincy (154 total yards), faces a tougher task vs. Houston, especially with Andre Johnson (10 recs. in opener) flashing his 2006 form. Baltimore 0-8 vs. spread on road LY (0-4 as dog). (05-BALTIMORE -8 16-15...SR: Baltimore 2-0)


San Diego 23 - DENVER 13?Are the Chargers still stunned after their lastplay loss on opening day? If nothing else, the setback to Carolina should remind them of their agonizing 1-3 start LY before they straightened things out.Feeling here is S.D. doesn?t want a repeat of that early-season frustration.Even with WR Brandon Marshall (102 recs. LY) back from suspension for Denver, and Charger LB Shawne Merriman limited, S.D. roster much deeper in impact players. Broncs totaled six points in two meetings LY.
(07-S. Diego 41-DEN. 3...S.20-17 S.37/214 D.20/72 S.13/18/0/270 D.23/36/1/224 S.0 D.2)
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Den. 3...S.18-12 S.38/147 D.19/92 S.18/28/0/187 D.14/32/2/133 S.1 D.1)
(07-San Diego +1 41-3, SAN DIEGO -9 23-3...SR: Denver 52-43-1)



*Pittsburgh 31 - CLEVELAND 20?Steelers have dominated the series in recent years, going 9-0 SU, 7-1-1 vs. the spread, and 4-0-1 vs. the number in Cleveland. The Browns? only loss at home LY was vs. Pittsburgh (in the opener with Charlie Frye starting). Now, Cleveland?s defense in question after multipleGame One failures vs. Dallas. The Steelers? superior running game and defense have allowed the Men of Steel to control this matchup. Trust Willie Parker and powerful rookie Rashard Mendenhall to help Pittsburgh maintain its overland edge. TV?NBC
(07-Pitt 34-CLE. 7...P.17-13 P.38/202 C.15/40 P.12/23/0/159 C.15/33/1/145 P.1 C.3)
(07-PITT 31-Cle. 28...P.22-13 P.35/159 C.18/40 P.23/35/1/242 C.16/35/0/123 P.0 C.1)
(07-Pittsburgh -4' 34-7, PITTSBURGH -10 31-28...SR: Pittsburgh 57-55)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15
*DALLAS 27 - Philadelphia 23?Both impressive in opener, but pointspread roomy enough to consider Philly, especially with McNabb & Westbrook healthy, the attack invigorated by WR DeSean Jackson (6 for 106 receiving in opener), and the defense reinforced by former N.E. CB Asante Samuel. Eagles play with confidence in Dallas, winning and covering 3 of last 4 meetings. Philly also has the pass rushers in quantity that Browns did not when Tony Romo had plenty of time to spot his targets last week.
CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-Dal. 38-PHIL. 17...D.24-21 D.32/110 P.19/66 D.20/25/1/324 P.27/46/2/250 D.0 P.1)
(07-Phil. 10-DAL. 6...P.20-11 P.27/134 D.15/53 D.13/36/3/187 P.23/41/0/181 P.1 D.0)
(07-Dallas -3 38-17, Philadelphia +10 10-6...SR: Dallas 54-43)

 

[the duke]

HQ Report Newsletter

5* CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-3) over OHIO U by 18
3* ARIZONA (-10) over NEW MEXICO by 20
3* IOWA STATE (+12) over IOWA
3* CLEMSON (-18) over NC STATE by 30

HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK
*BAYLOR (+3) over WASHINGTON STATE

HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL OVER/UNDER
*FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs MICHIGAN STATE PLAY OVER

A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)
*GEORGIA TECH (+7) over VIRGINIA TECH

 

[the duke]

Red Sheet

Air Force 38 - HOUSTON 24 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Houston minus 3?, & is now minus 5. The Falcons are one of the top spread streakers, & are currently on a nice 8-1 run vs the pts.And, as usual, they are doing it with their splendid overland game, which has piled up 694 yds thus far. Defensively, they've allowed a total of only 18 FDs in the early going, & caused 5 TOs in last week's 23-3 demolition of a decent Wyoming squad. Not the best of teams for this Cougar "D' to face on the heels of allowing nearly 700 yds, 379 of which came on the ground. The Coogs can crank it up, overhead, with Keenum tossing 9 TD passes already,but are on an 0-6 spread run, by 70? pts. Love the underdog role here.RATING: AIR FORCE 89

MICHIGAN STATE 47 - Florida Atlantic 17 - (Noon) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 16?, & is now minus 17. Simply no questioning the improvement of the Spartans since no-nonsense coach Dantonio arrived in East Lansing a year ago. From 3 consecutive losing seasons, to a near upset of BostonCollege in the '07 Champs Sports Bowl. MichiganSt is on a nice 8-3-2 spread run, with 1 of those misses by a mere ? pt in its opening 30-23 loss at California,so note the Bears' 66-3 romp over WashingtonSt last week. With Ringer off a 5-TD game, & veteran Hoyer doing the tossing, see no letup, as the Owls, behind QB Rusty Smith, were also a bowl team LY. Thus, you have total focus with the better team.RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 89

CLEMSON 48 - North Carolina State 10 - (Noon) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 19?, & is now minus 18?. To say that the Tigers laid an egg in their opening week game with Alabama, would be a gigantic understatement. They ranked 9th entering that one, & crawled away with a 34-10 loss, in which they were outrushed by an incomprehensible 239-0, with their pair of stellar RBs, Harper & Stiller, being completely shackled. But got off the mark last week vs the Citadel (who wouldn't?), & should keep it going vs an NCSt team which has amassed a total of 21 FDs in its 2 games to date, & has little or no overland game to take much needed time off the clock. And a year ago, Clemson had a 608-202 yd edge vs Wolfpack.RATING: CLEMSON 88

TCU 45 - Stanford 13 - (7:00 -- Line opened at TCU minus 13?, & is now minus 12?. In '05 & '06, the Frogs
were one of the best propositions in college ball, with their near weekly routs. But a year ago, it took them 9 games to approach their recent profitable status. So note their current 5-1 spread run, with their only miss by just 1 pt. This season, they have a highly impressive 49-19 FD edge & that includes a 20-9 edge over always dangerous NewMexico. The Cards have had their moments, to be sure, including their epic upset of USC LY, & have a solid run "D", but note that they have been outscored by 60 pts in their last 3 RGs. RATING: TCU 88

FRESNO STATE 35 - Wisconsin 20 - (10:30 - ABC) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 2, & is now minus 1?. As you know, we had the Bulldogs in their opening week tussle with Rutgers, & did not like what we were witnessing in the first half, when they were badly outplayed, but managed to escape with a 0-0 tie at intermission. And then they did what we expected, with a 24-7 win, behind the running of Matthews (163 yds & 3 TDs), & the passing of Brandstater. Are now on a 7-2 ATS run, covering their last 2 by 36 pts. The 10th ranked Badgers came from 404 RYs to 158 in a week, & have allowed >30 pts in their last 4 RGs. RATING: FRESNO STATE 88

Pittsburgh 31 - CLEVELAND 20 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 4, & is now minus 5. Weoriginally gave the Browns the benefit of the doubt in this one, figuring that they just couldn't be "one-year wonders", as they lit it up with regularity a year ago. Sure, they did absolutely nothing right in their hometown 28-10 wipeout loss to the Cowboys, with a FD deficit of 30-11, along with a 488-205 yd disadvantage. But the Steelers provided the perfect opponent in which to erase the sudden doubts, with this NBC Sunday Nighter. But respected sources tell us that the Browns are simply not in the class of this Pitt team which opened impressively:Ben 13-of-14, & 138 RYs from Parker. Spread reasonable.RATING: PITTSBURGH STEELERS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Oregon, Missouri, BoiseSt, OregonSt - NFL: NewOrleans, J'Ville, Philly LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): NotreDame (+4 to +1); Kansas (+6 to +3?); Duke (Pick to -2?); OregonSt (-9? to -12); California (-11? to -14); Baylor (+5 to +2?); Buffalo (-4 to -6?); UCLA (+10? to +8?); Oregon (-5 to -7); Rice (+8? to +7); Nevada (+28 to +26?); Houston (-3? to -5); Syracuse (+28 to +26?); USC (-9 to -10?); BowlingGreen (+17 to +15?); WesternKy (+29 to +27?); NoTexas (+42? to +41)

NFL: Chicago (+6? to +3); NYGiants (-6 to -8?); Cincinnati (+1 to -1); Miami (+8 to +7); Washington (Pick to -1); Pittsburgh (-4 to -5) - TIME CHANGES: Toledo/EasternMich: now Noon; SanJoseSt/SanDiegoSt (now 8:00) - KEY INJURIES: LaLafayette RB (concussion) probable; Marshall TE Slate (knee) probable;Navy QB Kaheaku-Enhada (hamstring) probable; Nevada RB Lippincott (knee) out; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) probable; SoCarolina WR McKinley (hamstring) doubtful; Texas A&M RB Goodson (knee) probable; Texas A&M QB McGee (shoulder) questionable; Vanderbilt WR Smith (foot) doubtful....

 

[the duke]

CKO

* - Denotes Home Team

RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

11 *MICHIGAN STATE over Fla. Atlantic

Late Score Forecast:

*MICHIGAN STATE 45 - Fla. Atlantic 17
Michigan State HC Mark Dantonio has the Spartan program headed in the right direction, as the team has covered 8 of last 12 after a bit of a slow start to his tenure early last season. MSU showed itself to be a bit of a bully last week in manhandling Eastern Michigan 42-10 behind future pro RB Javon Ringer's 5 TDs. Expect MSU QB Brian Hoyer to regain form as he gains rapport with RS frosh WR B.J. Cunningham (8 recs., 17.4 ypc) and vet Mark Dell transitions into his new "go-to" guy to replace Devin Thomas. Florida Atlantic has not been competitive as a big underdog outside of the Sun Belt, dropping 11 of its last 12 spread decisions as a double-digit dog against non-conference foes, with an average margin of defeat of more than 37 points. Owl HC Schnellenberger will take the paycheck and focus on winning the Sun Belt.

10 *SOUTHERN CAL over Ohio State

Late Score Forecast:

*SOUTHERN CAL 37 - Ohio State 16
Southern Cal has made a habit of covering against non-conference foes the last two seasons, covering 8 of last 9 encounters outside Pac-10 play, with the only spread loss coming as a 47-point favorite. The Trojans appear to be as good as advertised, as QB Mark Sanchez' knee appears sound and he was very sharp against the Cavs. Obviously, facing Ohio State is a step up for USC, but the Buckeyes have some questions entering this game. The biggest and most obvious is the health of lead RB "Beanie" Wells. Reporting on Wells' foot injury has been a nightly staple on the Big Ten Network, interesting, since HC Jim Tressel is guarding information on the subject as closely as the Pentagon guards the nuclear launch codes. Buckeye players who were recruited by USC have provided some "locker room" material, but doubt Trojans need more motivation for this game, and they have the better athletes.

10 *AKRON over Ball State

Late Score Forecast:

*AKRON 37 - Ball State 33
he Gold Sheet's MAC scouts were beating a path to the bookmaker early this week, eager to grab substantial points with Akron in its home opener. The Zips are brimming with confidence following their impressive win at Syracuse last week. Versatile sr. RB Dennis Kennedy (originally at Ohio State) is back to his fine 2006 form after an injury-plagued 2007 campaign. And rapidly-maturing jr. QB Chris Jacquemain (68%, 5 TDP, only 1 int. in first 2 games) now has new troika of targets--touted juco Deryn Bowser, converted DB sr. Andre Jones, and West Virginia transfer Jeremy Bruce (combined 24 catches for 285 yards)--in his WR arsenal. Can't knock potent Ball State offense. But Cardinal defense has plenty of holes, and Akron (6-1 last 7 as dog at Rubber Bowl) will find enough of them to have good chance at springing small upset.

10 IOWA STATE over *Iowa

Late Score Forecast:

IOWA STATE 23 -*Iowa 24
Long-time Midwest scouts report that upbeat 2-0 Iowa State has clearly shown it has fully integrated the systems and philosophy of knowledgeable 2nd-year HC Gene Chizik, who has also upgraded recruiting. So they urge us to take generous DD spread vs. Iowa squad that hasn't proven much by whipping outclassed Maine and Florida International. Cyclones will continue to effectively rotate soph QBs, 6-3 Arnaud (77%) and athletic, swift 6-1 Bates (138 YR so far), both of whom have shown they can take full advantage of a variety of weapons, including go-to sr. WR Sumrall (54 recs. LY; 8 TY) and versatile soph RB A. Robinson (465 YR & 23 catches last 5 games), who returns to action after missing Kent State with a bruised leg. Rebuilding Hawkeye defense (just 5 starters back; new CBs) will be hard-pressed to contain nicely-balanced, growing ISU attack. Meanwhile, expect Iowa's new starting soph QB Stanzi, who replaces inconsistent jr.Christensen, to make a few miscues vs. maturing, fired-up Cyclone defense, which has limited hated rival to 17 pts. or fewer in 3 of past 4 meetings. History repeats in a bitter rivalry recently dominated by Cyclones, who've covered 9 of past 10!

10 MIAMI at *Arizona

Late Score Forecast:

MIAMI 20 - *Arizona 17

(Sunday, September 14)

Expect Miami to improve substantially now that unusual Pennington-vs.-Favre, Dolphins-Jets first game is out of the way. CKO insiders say no-nonsense Dolphin HC Tony Sparano, an OL guru as an assistant, is quite pleased with the potential of the Miami OL, especially rugged rookie top-pick LT Jake Long, second-year C Samson Satele, and powerful former LT-turned-RT Vernon Carey. Thus, expect Dolphins to begin running with more authority as that unit jells in front of hard-running Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Chad Pennington (2 TDP in opener vs. his former team) figures to be a good ball-control caretaker of the offense. So Arizona best not be full of itself after its Game One victory over still-marginal S.F. and QB J.T. O'Sullivan in his first start. Cards 0-5 last 10 years laying more than 7 points!

TOTALS: UNDER the total in the Michigan-Notre Dame game--Neither offense figures to improve a great deal in just one week. Both coaches leaning on their defenses in early going...OVER (47) in the Philadelphia-Dallas game (Monday Night)--Philly has a healthy QB McNabb & RB Westbrook, and the Cowboys might have the best offense in the NFL.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): KANSAS (+3?) over South Florida (Friday Night)--Kansas is on a 16-3 spread roll, and QB Reesing completed 84% (!) against La Tech last week while UCF took S. Florida to OT...PENN STATE (-26?) over Syracuse--Orangemen showing few signs of life, while explosive Penn State well-focused following off-field distractions...OHIO (+3?) over Central Michigan--See value in backing Bobcats as a home dog. Ohio dropping back into their own class after two tough road losses (but covers) at Wyo & Ohio State...MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (+16?) over Kentucky--Blue Raiders have covered 4 of last 5 outside of Sun Belt play, and QB Joe Craddock has new weapons in frosh WRs McDonald & Beyah. CHICAGO (+3) vs. Carolina--Bears' rookie RB Forte & a healthy LB Urlacher the missing ingredients for Chicago's defense-first, no-mistakes-on-offense, win-with-special-teams Super Bowl formula.

 

[the duke]

Gold Sheet Key Releases

College:
UCLA by 3
Oregon State by 26
Fresno State by 11
Washington Plus over OU

 

[the duke]

SPORTS MEMO

TEDDY COVERS

BALTIMORE AT HOUSTON -4.5 O/U 37
Recommendation: Texans

This is the epitome of the betting marketplace overreacting to the events of Week 1. Yes, Baltimore beat Cincinnati at home, but there certainly isn?t much to be excited about for Ravens fans. Joe Flacco didn?t complete a pass longer than 15 yards in his NFL debut. No running back gained more than 12 yards on a single carry. An offense that lacked explosiveness last year is an offense that is going to lack explosiveness again this year. New head coach John Harbaugh is going to need to draw up a bunch of trick plays, like he utilized this past weekend, to get this offense into the end zone. And the Ravens? offense is not poised to take advantage of the Texans? biggest defensive weakness, their secondary. Houston was annihilated at Pittsburgh on Sunday thanks to an awful first half in which they were stuffed on fourth and short, then committed a pair of turnovers leading to Steelers touchdowns. This offense is primed for success against the Ravens defense,having faced an intense, blitz-happy defense last Sunday. The Texans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, and we?re getting them at a remarkably cheap price here, in a game that Houston should be favored by at least a touchdown.


JARED KLEIN

TENNESSEE +1 AT CINCINNATI O/U 39
Recommendation: Titans

I?m backing the Titans this weekend whether or not Vince Young plays. We?ve seen Kerry Collins start for Tennessee on occasion and I think that they?re a more balanced team with him at the helm. I?m also willing to say that the Titans have the best defensive line in the NFL after seeing them sack David Garrard seven times last weekend. The Titans? defense was downright dominant against Jacksonville, holding them to just 189 total yards. Running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew were non factors as Tennessee took them out of the game holding them to just 31 yards rushing. The Jaguars only offensive touchdown came off of a Vince Young interception that was returned to the Tennessee five yard line. If the Titans were able to do that to Jacksonville,they should be able to contain a Bengals? offense that put up 154 total yards last week. What makes matters worse for Cincinnati is that they gave up 229 yards rushing in Week 1. Chris Johnson and LenDale White put up 137 yards rushing against a very tough Jacksonville defense and should roll over a terrible Bengals? run defense. Titans go to Cincinnati and cover the number


TIM TRUSHEL

NEW ORLEANS AT WASHINGTON -1 O/U 42.5
Recommendation: Redskins

Jim Zorn and the Washington Redskins had quite an auspicious beginning to the season.Suspect play calling and a lack of crisp play had the Skins playing from behind all game long. Now after the showing against the New York Giants, the marketplace has over adjusted and discounted Washington too much. With the extra few days to prepare,Washington is more likely to show improvement and they will bounce back in this perfect situation against this perfect opponent. Their first opponent, the New York Giants, continued to get pressure from their defense despite the loss of Osi Umenyiora to injury and Michael Strahan to retirement. The pressure confused Jason Campbell and the Redskins did not seem to make the adjustments as the game progressed. This week against New Orleans they face a defense that is not so predicated on quarterback pressure. Last week the Saints got an impressive win against a divisional opponent and are now been inflated in the marketplace. However, last season New Orleans was 30 out of 32 NFL teams in passing defense and 26th in total defense with a turnover margin of -7. They are expected to be improved but they are not as good as they showed last week. We expect the ebb and flow of the NFL to be in full effect in this game.


MARTY OTTO

ARIZONA -10 AT NEW MEXICO
Recommendation: Arizona

Teams aren?t necessarily as good or as bad as they appear in any given week but two weeks into the 2008 campaign I think we can safely assess these two squads. The Lobos have shown absolutely no ability to move the football enough to hang within this number. The offensive line is a complete mess affording quarterback Donovan Porterie no time to find anything down field. The lone bright spot on this offense, running back Rodney Ferguson, is not an explosive back but more of a plodder. The defense was just picked apart by a backup quarterback on a Texas A&M squad with major offensive issues of their own. When you couple it together, this team simply cannot play catch-up effectively. And that is exactly what they will be forced to do in this game. Arizona is a very explosive team now fully in sync with this wide open system installed last year. Willie Tuitama has plenty of weapons to work with, most notably Mike Thomas, and they seem to have found a ground game which is particularly scary for the opposition. Rocky Long led his troops to an upset victory in Tucson last year but Arizona will hang half a hundred in this blowout.


ROB VENO

WASHINGTON STATE AT BAYLOR +2.5
Recommendation: Baylor

Even with their pair of opponents thus far having talent levels capable of propelling them to upper-tier bowl invitations, the numbers posted by Washington State at this point are beyond repulsive. The Cougars, in only the second week of September, already own the look of a squad whose mission is to be a national doormat. The newly implemented no-huddle spread offense has been a bust since the beginning of summer camp and the switch to a 4-3 defensive scheme hasn?t been much better. New HC Paul Wulff?s troops have run 124 plays for 363 yards (2.9 per play) this season while allowing 872 yards and 6.6 per snap. A non-conference travel spot for the Cougs on the heels of a demoralizing 66-3 conference loss last week figures to find them with their heads down. That?s good news for a Baylor squad that is chomping at the bit to get another home shot at a BCS team. Last week?s 51-3 win over I-AA Northwestern State has heightened morale and belief in new HC Art Briles? systems. Expect the Bears to be as sky high emotionally as they were in week one but this time the opponent isn?t nearly as seasoned and talented as Wake Forest


BRENT CROW

NC STATE AT CLEMSON -18
Recommendation: Clemson

Both of these teams bounced back from dismal opening games with wins over I-AA teams last week. Clemson took care of the Citadel, 45-17 while NC State beat William and Mary, 34-24. The Tigers piled up 525 yards of offense in their win, but did give up 427 yards to the Citadel -- half of that coming on five long pass plays. NC State was outrushed and out first-downed by Bill and Mary, but wound up with a slight 325-303 edge. This is a game in which Clemson should win easily. NC State was shutout by South Carolina in their opener and has already played three quarterbacks in just two games. The Tigers have received nothing but criticism since their opening loss to Alabama, but they were the preseason ACC pick for a reason. This team has tons of talent on offense and their speedy defense will not be run over by NC State, a team on the other end of the spectrum when compared to Alabama. Clemson piled up 608 yards in their 42-20 win over State last year and they should have a big edge again this year as they get back on track with an easy win.


ERIN RYNNING

MICHIGAN AT NOTRE DAME PK
Recommendation: Notre Dame

Rivals collide this weekend as the Wolverines invade South Bend. Of course, last year Michigan smashed Notre Dame 38-0 in Ann Arbor; however, the tales of both teams differ immensely in 2008. For Michigan, this season will be a pure rebuilding year for new head coach Rich Rodriguez. I?ve gone against Big Blue with two service play winners with spread covering wins from Utah and Miami (OH). Michigan was clearly outplayed by Utah, as the 25-23 loss could have been much worse and while Michigan flexed their muscle early against Miami, the RedHawks were arguably the better team for much of Michigan?s 16-6 win. UM is still very much a team with issues on both sides of the football, and especially in the offensive end. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is off its initial game of the season, which has to be considered a lackluster performance (21-13 win over San Diego State). We expect much better effort from an Irish team that returns 16 starters from an embarrassing 3-9 campaign. Look for the Irish to quickly surpass their 79-yard output from last year?s humbling episode against Michigan and pay back their rival.


FAIRWAY JAY

PENN STATE AT SYRACUSE +27
Recommendation: Syracuse

Penn State has been impressive in two early season romps at home, whereas the linesmakers can?t fade Syracuse enough. Head coach Greg Robinson will be fired by season?s end as the faithful fans are furious and frustrated. Robinson hears the drumbeats of discontent as he?s now 7-30 at Syracuse. Bettors can?t wait to keep attacking when they see Orange and figure the Nittany Lions should eat their lunch. This is one of the biggest home underdog roles ever for Syracuse. Last season they started with similar blowout losses before beating Louisville outright as a 37-point ?dog, and two seasons ago they beat No. 14 Iowa at home getting +20 points. No doubt Penn State has a dominant edge along the offensive line, but this is still quarterback Daryll Clark?s first-ever road start. Penn State?s thinning defensive line lost another player for the season last Saturday, and the Lions figure to have a little letdown following their easy opening victories and the off-field distractions. Syracuse was more competitive than the final scores indicated in its opening two losses and can get production
on the ground from Brinkley and Carter. We?ll take this very ugly home ?dog.


ED CASH

MICHIGAN AT NOTRE DAME PK
Recommendation: Michigan

I have been successful in going against the Wolverines in their first two games, winning with Utah and Miami-Ohio, but I will back them this week at Notre Dame. I am still not impressed at all with their offense, but the defense is improving and should have a big edge this week against the Irish offense. Notre Dame barely escaped with a 21-13 win over San Diego State at home last week, the same SDSU team that lost its home opener to I-AA Cal-Poly. San Diego State?s front seven, which was decimated by injuries and very undersized, dominated the Notre Dame offensive line. Quite simply, if the Irish cannot block the Aztecs, there is no way that they will be able to block Michigan. The Irish had just 105 yards on 34 rushing attempts last week and they appear to be just as poor offensively as they were in their three-win season a year ago. Michigan is very young on offense,but they should improve slowly under Rich Rodriguez and they won?t have to score many points to win this one. I?ll probably also take a look at the under in this game as Michigan gets its second straight win.


DONNIE BLACK

NAVY AT DUKE -2.5
Recommendation: Duke

Last week we wrote that in the Duke versus Northwestern game the wrong team was favored. While they lost 24-20 we got a pointspread winner as Duke +6 dominated the box score getting 28 first downs while gaining 472 yards. Overall, they had a 144-yard advantage in total offense and nearly doubled up the Wildcats in time of possession. On the last drive they had a chance at the outright win and a perfect 2-0 start. According to the AP report: Thaddeus Lewis scrambled around the pocket before finding Clifford Harris open for what appeared to be the winning touchdown. But tackle Cameron Goldberg was called for holding to bring it back. In other words Duke was right there for the win. We see no reason to get off the train now. This is a different team with a tremendous amount of enthusiasm as its new coach David Cutcliffe has raised expectations. Navy is projected as a rebuilding team. Last week at Ball State they were exposed by a good passing game. They allowed 328 yards on 21-of-28 passing. Similar results are likely this week. Just like last week?s game; talent, athleticism and speed should all be in favor of Duke. So with home field advantage, we see no reason why Duke can?t cover this small number.


BRENT CROW - EARLY LOOK AT COLLEGE FOOTS

The lines for week three have been out for a few hours now and as usual, several numbers have moved quite a bit. There were some surprising numbers, some of which are not the games that failed to move at all.My biggest interest this week is the East Carolina at Tulane line, as I have had the Pirates in both of its upset wins. I was hoping that they would still have a lot of value but that doesn?t appear to be the case with them being -13 at Tulane. It is a tough spot for both teams. Obviously, after beating two ranked teams and vaulting into the No. 14 spot in the AP Poll, this is a big letdown situation for East Carolina. However, Tulane battled Alabama very tough last week after they spent their entire week on the road in Birmingham while evacuating New Orleans because of Hurricane Gustav. Now it appears that another hurricane could be threatening the Gulf and New Orleans, so the Tulane players may be frazzled because of all of the events. One of the biggest early moves saw Notre Dame get all the money in its game against Michigan. After watching the Irish last week in their near loss to San Diego State, it is hard to fathom why anyone would want to bet on them this week. When you realize that Michigan opened as a four-point road favorite, you can at least make some sense in the early move. The Wolverines have shown some signs of improvement since their opening first half against Utah. Auburn was sloppy last week in its win over Southern Miss and now the Tigers are double-digit road chalk at Mississippi State, which beat SE Louisiana last week after losing at Louisiana Tech to open the season. This is a revenge game for the Tigers after losing at home to the Bulldogs last year, 19-14 as two-touchdown chalk. This could be a tough game for Auburn?s offense being on the road for the first time under new coordinator Tony Franklin.Arkansas has barely survived home games against Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe, needing a missed FG at the horn to notch a win last week. That was after they had rallied from a 24-6 deficit midway through the third quarter. I seriously doubt the Hogs will be able to rally this week at Texas, which opened as a 23-point favorite. The Longhorns have cruised to easy wins against Florida Atlantic and UTEP and I expect another easy win this week. Oregon has an interesting game at Purdue this week and comes in as a seven-point favorite. Oregon has been very impressive in its two wins over Utah State and Washington, displaying plenty of speed and a solid defensive front. Purdue opened their season with a win over Northern Colorado last week, but will face a much stiffer test this week. Oregon went to Michigan in week two last year and crushed the Wolverines, 39-7, so they should be very confident this week. The Ducks have been a quick starting team in recent years and the early money that bumped them up from the opener of -5 looks to be correct.Georgia travels to South Carolina to face old nemesis Steve Spurrier this week. The Bulldogs are 7.5-point favorites over what appears to be another SC team lacking a quality quarterback.Chris Smelley was no improvement last week in their loss at Vanderbilt after Tommy Beecher tossed four picks in the opening win against NC State. The good news for Gamecock fans is that they have a tremendous defense and if the offense doesn?t turn the ball over, they can beat anyone, including Georgia this week. The last five meetings between these teams have seen 38 points or less, including a 16-12 South Carolina win last year. Should be another low-scoring game this week.Ohio State heads to Los Angeles to face USC in the biggest game of the week. Ohio State was not impressive in a 26-14 win over Ohio last week and as a result the line this week shows USC at -10 and rising. USC was dominant in its week one win at Virginia, but something tells me that this will be a much closer game than people expect. The Buckeyes will have plenty of motivation this week in practice while USC likely won?t take them as seriously after the Ohio U performance.Washington gets no time to cry about its 28-27 loss to BYU last week. The Huskies have gotten a lot of sympathy after the ridiculous celebration penalty called on their game-tying touchdown. However, Oklahoma will not give them a break this week when the Sooners come to Husky Stadium as a 20-point favorite. Oklahoma has been terrific on offense in their first two home wins, but the road hasn?t been as kind to the Sooners of late. They have two wins by 20 or more in the past four years away from home -- Tulsa and Baylor. Oklahoma is just 7-5 SU on the road in the past three seasons and may find itself in a tough one this week against the pissed off Huskies. Worst defense in football? It has to be a C-USA team and I will nominate UAB, which has allowed 94 points and 1,155 yards in two games to Tulsa and Florida Atlantic. This week the Tennessee offense gets to pad its stats against the Blazers? defense as a 30-point favorite. The Vols had last week off after losing at UCLA in week one and should be in a bad mood when UAB comes to town.Finally, the winner of this week?s Rice vs. Vandy game will move to 3-0. If it is Rice, it would be the first time since 1953 that the Owls have started 3-0. Their offense has been solid, while Vandy has relied on a solid defense and decent ground game in their two wins. Definitely a matchup of contrasting styles in this one with Rice currently getting seven from the host Commodores. Vandy?s offense should have success against


ERIN RYNNING - STOCK WATCH

Buy the Duke Blue Devils ? If you?re a stickler for value, backing a program that has lost 25-straight conference games is a tough call. The Duke Blue Devils fit that profile as they start over once again with new head coach David Cutcliffe. Cutcliffe has found success before in somewhat of a similar situation, while taking the Ole Miss rebels to a 44-29 record during his tenure, which included five bowl games. Now it?s on to Duke as he tries to revamp a football culture that has been virtually non-existent. Cutcliffe was shocked with the shape of the Duke roster when he took over. He instituted an aggressive off-season program, which resulted in the roster losing an amazing 500 total pounds in the process of whipping them into shape. There?s some upside on this team including junior quarterback Thaddeus Lewis and wide receiver Eron Riley. Cutcliffe is known for his past work with the quarterback position. In fact, he spoke of a goal to score 30 points per game this season. In all they return about 17 starters from last year?s edition. There is some talent on the defensive side of the football with main cogs defensive tackle Vince Oghobaase and linebacker Mike Tauiliili back in the fold. We got a good sign of things to come potentially with the spread cover against a revenge-seeking Northwestern last week. The Blue Devils racked up 472 yards of offense and controlled the time of possession. They had the game-winning touchdown called back on a holding call. But from our perspective, it was simply another positive sign. With what looks to be a watered down ACC in 2008, look for the Blue Devils to surprise.Buy the San Francisco 49ers ? One look at the scoreboard from last week and on the surface it seems nothing has changed with the 49ers when compared to the last few editions. They opened their 2008 season with a 23-13 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, but it really wasn?t that bad. For the most part, the offense just killed themselves far too often with four fumbles. When they didn?t cough up the ball, running the football with Frank Gore was effective (6.9 ypc). They also did a great job at defending the run, holding Arizona to 2.8 ypc. The offense figures to be on a learning curve with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz and quarterback JT O?Sullivan. In my opinion, O?Sullivan just showed more moxie in one start than Alex Smith has in his entire career. The Niners figure to be able to run the football, while the timing in the passing game should come around in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the defense has the look to be good. Their stop-unit is now being built around the second-year phenom, Patrick Willis. Last year the NFL came up with 174 tackles for Willis, which speaks volumes about his range and nose for the football. Willis can run a 4.4 40-yard dash, which is faster than many defensive backs. In addition, San Francisco brought in pass rushing specialist Justin Smith this year, while having Nate Clements in the secondary. Manny Lawson looks healthy this season and ready to contribute as well. In handicapping professional sports, it?s important to be able to forecast the future. Obviously, the Niners have little past success to draw from, but that is the exact ingredient for true value. We are already starting to see it with San Francisco getting a generous nine points against a depleted Seattle squad this weekend.Sell the New York Giants ? Similar to the stock market,you must have the gut feeling of when to sell or buy. With that model, the timing seems right to take a stand against the Super Bowl champion Giants. Yes, I give the G-Men and head coach Tom Coughlin all the credit in the world for turning things around in 2007. The same can be said for their business-like approach in largely dominating the Washington Redskins in week one. The Giants were an extremely motivated football team heading into the season, feeling slighted with many forecasting better seasons from the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. Part of the win was motivation but part can also be pointed to a Washington team in its first game with new head coach Jim Zorn. Now the task continues to get larger and pressure begins to build. Everything fell into place for the Giants? remarkable run from last season but there have already been a couple bumps in the road. They need to figure out a way to produce without Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Without question, that tandem was key in wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks. In turn, the pressure created from their defensive line made their overall defense that much better, and most notably their secondary. The Redskins had no passing attack in week one and made it seem as if the defensive line losses for the Giants would have no long term effects. I completely disagree and see several strong passing units on New York?s schedule that have the capabilities to have big offensive outputs. Offensively the Giants were average for most of last season. Eli Manning is still prone to mistakes and despite a perfect first half against Washington, they quickly returned very vanilla after the break. In the land of the parity driven NFL, the Giants are simply a slightly above average team, but one that now has the stamp of being elite. In looking ahead, their value will probably grow with winnable games against St. Louis and Cincinnati, but after the bye week, things get considerably tougher with road contests at Cleveland, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. I wouldn?t be shocked to see them struggle some at St. Louis this weekend, laying a considerably high nine points.

 

[the duke]

Marc Lawrence Playbook

NCAA

5* BEST BET
When Stanford surprised Oregon State in a hard-fought PAC 10 opener,
there was a fl eeting instant when Cardinal fans thought, ?Maybe THIS
is the year.? Not. Reality came crashing down on Jim Harbaugh?s team
last week in the desert when Arizona State toppled The Tree, 41-17.
Although the program has gained a lot of notoriety since Harbaugh
took over in 2007, the fact of the matter is they?ve been pushed all over
the fi eld. Stanford has lost the stats in 12 of its 14 games with Harbaugh
? including 0-5 ITS away ? with an average stat loss of a whopping 174
YPG (lost by 239 yards at ASU and 189 yards in upset of OSU). To make
matters worse, Stanford travels to Texas cattle country off back-to-back
double conference revengers to open the season! After feasting on
Stephen F. Austin last week 66-7, the Froggies know the last eight home
teams to play off a 60-point win are 6-1-1 ATS. Overlooked TCU head
coach Gary Patterson is 13-7 at Fort Worth versus .500 > opponents,
plus 21 of his 31 SU wins have come by 14 or more points. The Clincher?
Non-conference HF?s of 18 or less points off a win of 50 > points are 27-7
ATS since 1980, including 19-3 if they won 8 or more games the previous
year. GO FROGS!
TCU over Stanford by 25




4* BEST BET
Both teams saw doube-digit leads evaporate into losses but we don?t
know how the Blundering Herd can overcome the trauma of giving
up 51 unanswered points in their loss to Wisconsin. Memphis may be
0-2 SU and ATS but the Tigers have won both stat battles to start the
season. Memphis fi ts this nifty number concerning bowl teams playing
with next-season revenge: Game Three Bowl dogs of less than 20 points
off consecutive pointspread losses and a SU loss have cashed in 13 of
their last 16 tries. Tiger coach West badly needs a win to lower the
heat under his own seat and just so happens to own a 10-2 ATS record
off a SU favorite loss when tackling a > .333 opponent. Marshall has
stumbled to a pathetic 2-7-1 ATS record in its last 10 conference openers
and won?t be able to stop a Memphis team still steaming over their lastsecond
loss to Rice. Tigers restore the roar in Huntington.





3* BEST BET
Looking at last week?s results, you may fi nd this pick harder to swallow
than a big dose of castor oil. That?s okay with us because we hope the
public drives this infl ated number even higher. No doubt the Golden
Bears are off to a great start but this West Coast / East Coast traveler is
not so desirable off last week?s conference opening rout at Washington
State (Cal?s previous excursion east of Ole Man River resulted in a 17-
point loss at Tennessee as 2.5 point favorites), especially with a 12
Noon ET / 9 AM PT body clock time kickoff slated. And as we?ve seen
several times already in this week?s writeups, the ?Game Three Bower?
angle also goes against California here. Maryland?s unexpected defeat
by Middle Tennessee State was a huge embarrassment for Ralph
Friedgen?s program but the Rotund One owns a sweet 8-3 ATS record
at home if the Terps are .500 or less, including 5-1 when playing off a
loss. Even better is this database special that tells us underdogs off a SU
loss as double-digit RF?s are a sterling 17-4 ATS when playing a foe off
consecutive SUATS wins. THIS JUST IN: ACC dogs have clawed their way
to a 13-3-2 spread mark against PAC 10 foes, a number that tightens to
7-1 if the game takes place in the regular season. Fear the turtle!
California over MARYLAND by 3




UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK

Rice over VANDERBILT by 3

Vandy coach Bobby Johnson is off to his fi rst 2-0 season start since 2005
but not without some help. If you watched last week?s 24-17 win over
South Carolina, you know the Gamecocks were victimized by some
extremely biased offi ciating, especially in the crucial second half. Even
so, few could have predicted that this Week Three matchup between
two traditionally downtrodden programs would emerge as a battle of
2008 unbeatens. Rice blasted SMU 56-27 on opening day then rode a
strong 29-point fourth quarter to surge past Memphis 42-35 (69-yard
interception return for a TD with just 11 seconds remaining stunned
the Tigers). Our powerful database tells us today?s game ? regardless of
Zebra interference ? should go the way of the Owls: Game Three teams
off BB SU victories taking on a non-conference foe on the road stand a
respectable 19-8 ATS. The Commies? litany of past pointspread failures
only reinforces our thinking. Teams equaling Vandy?s back-to-back SU
dog wins are a weak 3-7 ATS playing a non-league foe in Game Three.
Even worse, VU has struggled to a 3-13 SU and 4-11 ATS record off
previous consecutive wins (0-4 SUATS last four) and the Commodores
have laid a big fat egg recently as home chalk of 17 or fewer points,
burying their backers with an 0-10 mark. When the gun sounds here, we
think Vandy will be singing the blues in Music City.




Thursday, September 11th

RUTGERS over North Carolina by 7
Scarlet Knights last took on UNC in the 2006 season opener for both teams,
stepping on the favored Heels at Chapel Hill 21-16. Since that meeting Rutgers?
Greg Schiano has gone 18-8 SU & 14-10 ATS while UNC is just 8-16 SU and 10-
11 ATS. RU immediately felt the loss of ?07 star RB Ray Rice to graduation in
its season opener against Fresno State while Pat Hill?s Bulldogs found a Ricefree
diet to their liking ? FSU stifl ed the Knights 24-7, outrushing Rutgers by
100 yards. Carolina?s lone opponent so far in 2008, 1-AA McNeese State, gave
the Tar Heels all they could handle before falling 35-27 (Cowboys outgained
UNC in fi rst downs by 22 to 13 while running up an 11-minute advantage on
the game clock). It?s good for Rutgers coach Greg Schiano that tonight?s foe
doesn?t reside in the Big East: he?s a sizzling 20-6-1 ATS at home when laying
less than 17 points to a non-conference adversary. Those numbers fi t like a
glove into Carolina?s 0-6 SU and ATS efforts lately against Big East foes ? but
one troubling stat keeps us from slipping on the armor. UNC coach Davis owns
an impressive 68-19 SU and 56-19 career ATS mark when his teams score 21
or more points (that angle went 3-1 ATS in 2007). With Rutgers giving up just
over 22 PPG over the past 14 games, we may have to sit this one out.



Friday, September 12th
SOUTH FLORIDA over Kansas by 3
Seven years ago this matchup would have been one of those ?added game?
curiosities ? but tonight it?s one of the hottest tickets in Orlando, home of
arguably the second-best college football team in the Sunshine State. Both USF
and Kansas desperately want to be included in college football?s elite and this
little donnybrook should show us if either squad warrants that type of talk.
We know the Jayhawks are at the top of the ATS heap, currently on a superb
12-2 spread run, and KU has cashed all three prior meetings with the Big East.
Those numbers lose a bit of luster, though, when stood next to the ?Hawks?
dismal 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS mark playing their fi rst road game without rest. The
Bulls failed to cover as 2-TD chalk in their thrilling OT win over UCF but South
Florida overwhelmed the Knights 504-226 in total yards. The Kansas defense
has held its fi rst two opponents to a measly 10 points but Mark Mangino?s stop
unit hasn?t seen an offense this lethal since going to war with Missouri in last
year?s Big 12 North Championship. Tough to buck the Bulls when they?re 10-2
SU recently at Raymond James Stadium ? and just as tough to fade a Kansas
contingent that?s covered seven straight as a road dog. Your call.




Saturday, September 13th
Navy over DUKE by 3
Wow, if new Duke coach David Cutcliffe had beaten Northwestern last
week, he would?ve equaled the Blue Devils? victory total for the previous
THREE seasons (2 wins) in just two weeks! Duke lost its home opener to the
Wildcats 24-20, but Cutcliffe cashed as a 5-point dog. Today the Blue Devils
fi nd themselves in a seldom-experienced role: chalk. Only once in the past
four years has Duke laid points and they lost the whole game; in fact, the
last 10 times the Devils have been favored, they?ve failed to cover a single
contest. That?s music to the Midshipmen?s ears? especially after last week?s
frustrating 35-23 loss to Ball State. Navy?s reliable ground attack rolled up
346 yards rushing against the ?Nads but blew numerous second-half scoring
opportunities: the Mids were stopped twice on downs and failed a third time
thanks to a costly red zone interception. The points should come more easily
today in a series that Navy has dominated (they?ve covered four of the last
fi ve at Wallace Wade Stadium). With the visitors? cargo including a stout 23-9
ATS record away after a SU loss and a 6-2 ATS mark versus the ACC, we expect
the Middies to steam into Durham and weigh anchor three hours later before
sailing away with the outright win.





Auburn over MISSISSIPPI ST by 13
With the offense putting the ball on the carpet and a QB controversy at full
boil, Auburn turned to its punishing defense to pull out Saturday?s 27-13
win over Southern Miss. The Tigers? stop unit ? which had pitched a shutout
in the fi rst 102 minutes of the season ? yielded a pair of 4th quarter TDs
to the Golden Eagles before fi nally slamming the door. Tommy Tuberville
immediately named QB Chris Todd as the starter for this week?s ?circled in
red? revenge showdown with Missy State. 2007?s shocking 19-14 defeat as 13-
point chalk on the plains marked Tubs? fi rst loss to the Bulldogs in seven years
(he?d gone 5-0 SU and ATS in the previous fi ve confrontations) and the ATS
archives tell us the Tigers should get their pound of fl esh at Starkville. Aubbie
has ruled the series recently, covering fi ve of six tries and they?ve cashed four
straight tickets in their initial trip away from Jordan-Hare Stadium. Sylvester
Croom?s Bulldogs, the most improved team in the SEC last year, look to be
reverting to their previous level of mediocrity after dropping the season
opener to lightly-regarded Louisiana Tech before sleepwalking through a 34-
10 win over outmanned SE Louisiana last week. MSU is more bark than bite
when installed as a home dog of more than 7 points (1-5 ATS) and Croom
has limped to a 4-12 spread mark when losing SU as a conference pup. In this
latest battle between cats and dogs, the Tigers should prevail.


Ball St over AKRON by 3
Ball State QB Nate Davis continued his great start in 2008, passing for 326 yards
and 4 TDs to lead his Gonads to a 2-0 start with a victory over Navy. But success
does not necessarily breed more success with the Testicular Ones when they
show up as road favorites off a SU win ? they won their previous four games in
that role SU but failed to grab the money in a single contest. Another nugget
from our PLAYBOOK database reveals that Game Three bowlers laying points
on the highway off a SUATS victory have stumbled to a paltry 18-38 ATS mark
if they scored 34 or more points in their previous game. Akron gained 478
yards against Syracuse last Saturday and the Zips showed enough tenacity to
snap a late 28-28 tie en route to their 42-28 win. Akron coach J.D. Brookhart
loves being a MAC home dog when taking on a foe off a SU win, covering four
of his last fi ve tries. With the ?Nads now a shriveling 2-7 ATS off consecutive
wins when taking on a league opponent, we like the Rubber City boys to cash
today?s check. Like Doctor Evil frequently says to his son, Scott, ?Zip it.?



Toledo over E MICHIGAN by 1
More MAC madness featuring a pair of squads that were crushed last week
by a combined score of 83-26. The EMU rush defense looked to be in a state
of foreclosure against Michigan State, allowing the Spartans 286 yards and
six TDs on the ground. This sort of performance should come as no surprise to
Eagles fans: Eastern Michigan was scorched for an unbelievable 600 total yards
in 07?s 52-28 loss to the Rockets. Stats like that should get the fuel fl owing for
the Toledo offense after being held to just 74 yards on 24 carries by Arizona?s
Desert Swarm. Tom Amstutz and company have won and covered fi ve of the
last six series scuffl es but the Big Boy?s troubling home-road dichotomy ? 26-
11 ATS home compared to 13-26-1 ATS away ? puts this on hold for now.
Don?t be surprised to see Toledo fl ip-fl op to the favorite?s role by game time.




MISSOURI over Nevada by 28
After laboring in near-obscurity for six seasons at Columbia, Missouri coach
Gary Pinkel has unleashed a genuine offensive monster, racking up an average
of 40 PPG in 2007 and opening the new campaign with a pair of 52-pointers.
Mizzou?s 4-0 ATS record against the WAC coupled with the luxury of playing
the second of three consecutive home games (Tigers won?t play outside the
state of Missouri until October 4th) should point the way to another lop-sided
win, right? Maybe not. Nevada?s 35-19 home loss to Texas Tech was much
closer than the fi nal score might indicate. The Wolf Pack actually outgained
the much ballyhooed Red Raider offense and appeared to have taken a 15-14
lead when QB Colin Kaepernick scored from 3 yards out. But a subsequent
challenge and lengthy review ended with the play being ruled a fumble and
the ball was awarded to Texas Tech. While we respect such scrappy play by
the underdog lupines, heading into Missouri for their initial road game of
the new season does not appear to be the optimum situation to risk our
hard-earned dough. At the same time, laying almost four TDs to a capable
opponent is not our idea of sound fi nancial planning, either. Pass.




TEXAS TECH over Smu by 41
When SMU emptied the vault to lure new coach June Jones from Hawaii to
Dallas, they knew they?d get one of college football?s most exciting, highscoring
offenses. Apparently the Mustang brain trust overlooked the fact that
they?d also be getting a defense that Jones tended to treat like a red-headed
stepchild. Two games and 92 points later (SMU defense gave up 36 points last
week in win over 1-AA Texas State), Mustang fans realize they?ll probably be
facing a ?last team with the ball wins? scenario until Jones? offensive transition
is complete. A defense with more holes than John Dillinger?s corpse is not what
you want to take into Lubbock to face the aforementioned Red Raiders of Mike
Leach. Tech has bested the Ponies in three straight on this fi eld and should be
champing at the bit to get after a squad that?s covered just ONCE in 10 tries
against Big 12 opposition. One look at our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3 and it?s
obvious these Mustangs should be herded into the corral with little resistance.
TTRR QB Graham Harrell did not enjoy one of his more memorable outings
against Nevada last week; he?ll make amends here in a big-time blowout.



NEBRASKA over New Mexico St by 31
While most college teams have a pair of games under their belt already this
season, the Aggies from Las Cruces have yet to take the fi eld. After their
9/4 opening game against Nicholls State was cancelled due to the arrival of
Hurricane Gustav, Hal Mumme?s troops must now make their ?08 debut at
inhospitable Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. (FYI: season-opening dogs are 0-6
ATS versus teams playing their 3rd game of the year). The 2-0 Huskers haven?t
exactly faced powerhouse competition so far, whipping Western Michigan in
their opener before struggling to subdue San Jose State last week. With huge
games awaiting Nebraska against Virginia Tech and Missouri, we?d love to run
with the Aggies and the big points here but Mumme?s 10-23-1 ATS career mark
in games against an opponent off a SU win tells us different. The Corn Boys
have made short work in the past of WAC teams foolish enough to venture
into Big Red?s lair, going 14-0 SU and 8-4 ATS on their home turf. Lay it.




Byu over UCLA by 4
The Cougars escaped Seattle last week by virtue of one of the worst pieces
of offi ciating in college football history. Trailing 28-21 in the fi nal minute of
play, Washington?s Jake Locker moved his team deep into BYU territory and
scored on a rollout with just seconds remaining on the clock. Unfortunately,
Locker reacted to the clutch TD by fl ipping the football over his shoulder before
celebrating with jubilant teammates in the end zone ? and the damnable yellow
hanky was tossed onto the fi eld. After being penalized 15 yards for ?excessive
celebration?, the Huskies? lengthy PAT was blocked and BYU stole the victory,
extending the nation?s longest winning streak to 12 games. That skein could be
in jeopardy today against a resurgent UCLA squad that upset Tennessee in new
coach Rick Neuheisel?s opener. The Bruins have mauled the Mormons in fi ve
straight regular season meetings and are aching to get revenge for last year?s
17-16 defeat in the Las Vegas Bowl. Check out what the visitors are bringing
to Provo: 8-1 ATS as non-conference dogs of 3 or more points, 8-2 ATS away
versus a non-Pac 10 foe when seeking revenge and 8-3 SUATS when taking on
MWC foes. Whew! Despite dominating its own conference for several years,
the Cougars don?t match up well with the PAC 10 at home, covering just three
of the last 10 contests. Neuheisel has had an extra week to prepare so we?ll be
surprised if this game doesn?t go to the wire, too.



Oregon over PURDUE by 3
After blasting their fi rst two opponents by a combined score of 110-34, Mike
Belloti?s offense looks like the most well-oiled machine in the nation right
now. When we note the Ducks? super 9-0 ATS log in their fi rst road game and
an equally profi table 8-1 ATS mark against non-conference teams, everything
seems to point in the feathered ones? direction here, too. But as Lee Corso
would say, ?Not so fast, my friend!? Game Three bowlers (see Ball St vs Akron)
like Oregon who are favored on the road off a SUATS win are a weak 18-38
versus the number if they scored 34 or more points in their last outing (OU
registered 66 against Utah State). Purdue sports a solid 4-1 ATS record as nonconference
home dogs of 4 or more points and the negative press that the Big
10 has received over the past few weeks will add value to the Boilermakers?
side here. 2008 marks Purdue coach Joe Tiller?s fi nal season on the sidelines
at West Lafayette and we must respect the Tiller-man?s success at home ? 34-
16 ATS playing at Ross-Ade Stadium off a SU win. Despite the fact that Tiller
takes the fi eld today as a lame duck coach, we think his Boilers will slow the
Quack Attack enough to walk away with the cash at game?s end.


TEXAS over Arkansas by 24
Recent medical reports indicate the sale of pacemakers and defi brillators have
soared in the state of Arkansas over the previous two weeks, a direct result
of the cardiac Razorbacks snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in a pair
of heart-stopping thrillers. New coach Bobby Petrino has certainly given Hog
fans a full 60 minutes of football each week as Arkansas has had to mount
two fourth-quarter comebacks over inferior competition to post its 2-0 start.
The Razorbacks take a giant step up in class this Saturday when they fl y into
Austin to square off with former Southwest Conference foe Texas. Bevo has
not been as genial a host as Arky, stampeding UT?s opening two opponents by
a 94-23 margin, but the ATS archives sound a warning to those who think the
?Horns will duplicate those performances against the Hogs. Texas has dropped
six in a row ATS versus the SEC and Mack Brown?s team is a money-burning
3-7 ATS in Game Three of the season. Don?t take that as an endorsement of
Arkansas, though. The Hogs are a miserable 1-6 ATS in Game Three and have
lost four of fi ve as underdogs playing off back-to-back homers. The current
line of Texas ?23 doesn?t leave us much wiggle room so we?ll watch.



Georgia over S CAROLINA by 10
Even though the season is only two weeks old, Gamecock QB problems are
driving coach Steve Spurrier crazy ? NOT a situation he wants to be in with
2nd-ranked Georgia set to invade Columbia. Totals players take note: this
has been one brutal, low-scoring series with the last 10 meetings averaging
a 17-11 fi nal in favor of the Dawgs. And as much as we respect the Ole Ball
Coach, South Carolina could easily get cold-cocked today. The Bulldogs owe
SC for last season?s devastating 16-12 defeat, Georgia?s only loss last year
between the hedges and the Gamecocks own an awful 0-5 ATS record as
home underdogs against an SEC foe playing with revenge. True, the Dawgs
are facing the same ?Game Three Bowler? angle that applies to the Oregon-
Purdue matchup but this Georgia squad has got South Carolina outclassed
at virtually every position. In what promises to be a good, old-fashioned SEC
slugfest, the visitors from the Peach State should end up ruling the roost.



Air Force over HOUSTON by 3
A tip of the hat goes to coach Troy Calhoun and his Flyboys. After losing
4-year starting QB Shaun Carney and star RB Chad Hall, we were convinced
that Air Force would suffer a sophomore slump in Calhoun?s second season at
the controls. Instead, the Force followed an expected 41-7 thrashing of lowly
Southern Utah by going to Laramie last Saturday and totally shutting down
Wyoming?s offense in a 23-3 shocker. With the Falcon defense exceeding
expectations, we don?t mind taking 6 points on the road today against the
Cougars. New Houston coach Kevin Sumlin must do a rapid about-face to
prepare for an offense that stands in direct contrast to the wide-open
Oklahoma State attack he saw last week (Coogs ripped for 56 points). Game
Three stats favor the airmen: they?re 7-1 SUATS in that role this decade while
new coaches at home like Sumlin are just 10-23-1 ATS when facing down a foe
off a SUATS win. The bottom line is Air Force can slow this game to a crawl
and frustrate the Cougars into their second loss of the season.



OREGON ST over Hawaii by 13
Poor Mike Riley. He?s probably already checking future schedules to make
sure he doesn?t open a season with back-to-back roadies? especially after
stumbling against Stanford in his PAC 10 opener, then getting eviscerated
45-14 at Penn State. But don?t expect the Beavers to go into hibernation just
yet? not when the host in OSU battles with the WAC stands a strong 13-5
ATS. These two last put on the gloves late in 2006 when visiting Oregon State
beat Hawaii 35-32 as 8-point underdogs. The guys with the funny shirts are
still trying to forge an identity under new coach Greg McMakin and Corvallis
is not exactly the easiest venue on this year?s slate. With Hawaii just 1-6 ATS off
a SU win when playing a PAC 10 foe and the Beavers 6-1 ATS at home before
continuing the Trojan Wars, some home-cooked pineapple could be just what
OSU needs to raise the decibel level at Reser Stadium this weekend.



FRESNO ST over Wisconsin by 3
Another immensely intriguing matchup between schools that occasionally
cross paths, this contest of nationally-ranked teams ? along with Ohio State-
USC ? should give us some insight into the ability of the Big 10?s power teams
to stand up against prolifi c West Coast offenses. The Badgers fell behind 14-
0 last week at Madison to sacrifi cial lamb Marshall but turned on the jets
when Herd coach Mark Snyder continued to stack his defense at the line of
scrimmage in an attempt to pressure inexperienced QB Allan Evridge. ?We
wanted to see if he could throw the football,? dead-panned Snyder, ?and he
did.? Evridge got hot, opening previously non-existent running lanes for RB
P.J. Hill and Wisconsin scattered the Herd with 51 unanswered points (Evridge
fi nished 17-of-26 for 308 yards while Hill rushed for 210). Still, we don?t
think the Badgers will go California-dreamin? against the bruising Bulldogs.
If Wisky remains the favorite, they?ll fi ght a 1-5 ATS log as non-league RF?s
when playing off a double-digit win at a venue west of the Mississippi. Bret
Bielema?s Badgers also fall prey to the previously noted Game Three Bowler
angle (18-38 ATS) and must face a hungry Fresno State squad that?s covered
seven of its last eight as non-conference home dogs. We all know Badgers are
tough protecting their dens but get ?em out of their territory and a pack of
wild dogs will bring ?em down every time.



Penn St over SYRACUSE by 25
If the great William Shakespeare were a modern day sportswriter, no doubt
he would?ve already penned a tragedy surrounding the fall of the Syracuse
football empire and its tormented king, coach Greg Robinson. Now 7-30 SU
following this year?s 0-2 start, Robinson at least got to see his offense put
28 points on the scoreboard against Akron. Unfortunately, the Zips posted
42 of their own and turned the once raucous Carrier Dome into a cavernous
mausoleum. As a result, this showdown of former Eastern football powers
fi nds the fading Orange taking 26 points from the invading Lions. Believe it or
not, the history books support SU today: the Orange is 23-5 ATS in the second
of back-to-back home games and Robinson owns a 6-2 ATS mark in the dome
against non-Big East opponents. Need more ammunition? Penn State has
failed to cover in its last four road openers and owns an embarrassing 1-9 ATS
mark lately against the Big East. Even so, we wouldn?t touch the ?Cuse today
if Macbeth?s ghost himself advised us to do so. All of which begs the question
concerning the doomed Robinson: when doth falleth the gauntlet?



NOTRE DAME over Michigan by 6
Charlie Weis and his Irish may have used up a season?s worth of luck last
week when they barely edged lowly San Diego State. Leading 13-7 in the
fourth quarter, the Aztecs were inches away from a game-clinching TD when
Brandon Sullivan fumbled and Notre Dame recovered in their own end zone.
Minutes later, Irish QB Jimmy Clausen connected on a 38-yard scoring pass
to Golden Tate and the home team took the lead for good. Even though
the 21-13 win sunk a boatload of handicappers who expected Notre Dame
to open 2008 with a rout (Irish were favored by 21 points), the Dame can
actually claim a 3-game win streak heading into today?s game ? and remains
a ?Mission Team? with a long list of paybacks. Not coincidentally, Michigan
sits at the top of that list following 2007?s merciless 38-0 pounding of the
Irish at the Big House. But the Wolverines aren?t exactly in synch themselves,
struggling to adjust to new coach Rich Rodriguez?s complex offensive
schemes while eking out a 1-1 start. The Maize-and-Blue owns some horrible
numbers away from Ann Arbor, including 0-7 ATS as non-conference road
chalk and 1-9 ATS in the season?s fi rst road game. Meanwhile, Notre Dame
has fashioned a highly-profi table 13-4-1 spread mark as home dogs when
not playing off a loss. With Charlie ?To hell with Michigan? Weis dropping
two straight to the Wolves in embarrassing fashion, this could easily be
Notre Dame?s biggest game of the year? until next week? and the week
after.


IOWA over Iowa St by 17
Of the many accomplishments that can be attributed to head coach Kirk
Ferentz since his arrival in Iowa City, beating Iowa State is not one of them. In
nine cracks against the hated Cyclones, Ferentz has managed to deliver just
THREE victories ? despite being favored for the last seven years! It happened
in 2007 when Iowa State stunned the Hawkeyes 15-13 as 17-point home
dogs. However, that result could play to Iowa?s advantage here as the Hawks
have major revenge along with some major value in the line: they?re laying
fewer points at home this year with a much better team than they did at ISU
last season. Unfortunately, we can?t risk the big bucks here because of the
one-sided series history. The Cyclones have rung the register in nine of the
previous ten meetings and covered all fi ve of their recent trips to Kinnick
Stadium. Still, Ferentz has gone 38-19-1 ATS at home with the Hawkeyes and
seems to be righting the ship after two consecutive non-winning campaigns.
Point a gun in our direction and we?ll fade an Iowa State squad that?s just 6-18
ATS when they lose SU as a dog versus an avenging team.



VA TECH over Ga Tech by 11
So much for the ?Sean Glennon is my guy? QB plan hatched by Virginia
Tech head coach Frank Beamer. Following the Hokies? season opening upset
by East Carolina, Beamer scrapped plans to redshirt Tyrod Taylor and rode
the quarterback?s 112 rushing yards to a 24-7 win over Furman. And after
Paul Johnson improved to 2-0 in his fi rst year at Georgia Tech by beating
Boston College, we?re sure some folks at Syracuse are asking, ?Why didn?t we
get THAT guy?? Johnson will face the biggest test of his young ACC career
here at Blacksburg ? our PLAYBOOK database warns us that new coaches in
Game Three off a SU dog win are a woeful 1-11 ATS on the road against an
opponent off a win of 7 or more points. Tech has also cashed in four of the
past fi ve series games and stands 9-3 ATS when taking on a revenge-seeking
conference adversary. Best of all, VT coach Beamer is the answer to this week?s
TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Hokies gobble up the Yellow Jackets today.



CLEMSON over NC State by 21
Strictly from a numbers standpoint, the Tigers? ACC opener looks like a
Mexican standoff (can we still use that expression in the Hispanic States of
America?). Good stats abound on both sides: Clemmie has cashed in four of
the last fi ve meetings but NC State has grabbed the money in four of its last
fi ve trips to Death Valley. The Wolfpack is also 8-1 ATS as conference dogs of
8 or more points but the Tigers can answer with a 4-1 ATS mark when playing
an avenging ACC opponent. New Pack coach Tom O?Brien edged Tommy
Bowden in a pair of closely contested thrillers while at Boston College but he
also got ripped to shreds by Clemson at Raleigh last year, 42-20. The truth is
the Tigers have a huge edge athletically and may be anxious to make amends
for their season-opening faux pas against Alabama. Lay it if you play it.



W Michigan over IDAHO by 7
The Broncos are another of our ?Mission Teams? ? suffered a losing season
the previous year after back-to-back winning campaigns ? but they certainly
haven?t played like it, opening 0-2 ATS and ITS (in the stats). The road to
redemption could easily start here in Moscow, Idaho, where WMU catches
the host Vandals celebrating a rare SU victory. Yes, last week the Potato
Heads (Idaho) beat their in-state rival Tater Heads (Idaho State) and snapped
a depressing 11-game losing streak. However, even counting that victory, the
Vandals have won just TWO of their previous 19 games. We think you should
forget about his, drag your own Mr. Potato Head out of the closet and see if
you can make him look like the presidential candidate of your choice.



C Michigan over OHIO U by 6
Ohio University was poised to pull off the Upset of the New Millennium last
week in Columbus but the Bobcats, as your local real estate agent might say,
couldn?t close the deal. Yes, 34-point underdog Ohio actually led the mighty
Buckeyes 14-12 after three quarters but succumbed to reality in the fi nal
stanza when Ohio State struck for 14 unanswered points. The 26-14 Bobcat
loss means they will either (a) play inspired football on the heels of their
miraculous performance or (b) show up as fl at as a Ross Perot crew-cut. We?re
guessing the latter, especially with the Chippewas winning and covering their
last four MAC openers. After getting trounced 56-17 by Georgia last week,
the prospect of taking on the Bobcats today should be like eyesight to the
blind for CMU. Check on the status of starting Ohio QB Theo Scott who left
early with a shoulder injury against OSU and did not return.



BAYLOR over Wash St by 1
This line shows such a huge lack of respect for the Baylor program that we?re
surprised Rodney Dangerfi eld himself isn?t spinning in his grave. After getting
obliterated by Oklahoma State (39-13) and then California (66-3), Washington
State takes to the road for the fi rst time this season and somehow ends up as
road chalk over 1-1 Baylor! WTF? Of the last 20 teams to hit the highway off
a loss of 60 or more points, only FIVE have managed to get the money. We
also feel that new Bears head coach Art Briles is just as savvy as WSU?s rookie
skipper, Paul Wulff ? even if Baylor does bring a 1-5 SU record against the PAC
10 into this contest. However, no amount of discussion will convince us to
seriously consider either side in this clunker. Pass.




VA TECH over Ga Tech by 11
So much for the ?Sean Glennon is my guy? QB plan hatched by Virginia
Tech head coach Frank Beamer. Following the Hokies? season opening upset
by East Carolina, Beamer scrapped plans to redshirt Tyrod Taylor and rode
the quarterback?s 112 rushing yards to a 24-7 win over Furman. And after
Paul Johnson improved to 2-0 in his fi rst year at Georgia Tech by beating
Boston College, we?re sure some folks at Syracuse are asking, ?Why didn?t we
get THAT guy?? Johnson will face the biggest test of his young ACC career
here at Blacksburg ? our PLAYBOOK database warns us that new coaches in
Game Three off a SU dog win are a woeful 1-11 ATS on the road against an
opponent off a win of 7 or more points. Tech has also cashed in four of the
past fi ve series games and stands 9-3 ATS when taking on a revenge-seeking
conference adversary. Best of all, VT coach Beamer is the answer to this week?s
TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Hokies gobble up the Yellow Jackets today.



CLEMSON over NC State by 21
Strictly from a numbers standpoint, the Tigers? ACC opener looks like a
Mexican standoff (can we still use that expression in the Hispanic States of
America?). Good stats abound on both sides: Clemmie has cashed in four of
the last fi ve meetings but NC State has grabbed the money in four of its last
fi ve trips to Death Valley. The Wolfpack is also 8-1 ATS as conference dogs of
8 or more points but the Tigers can answer with a 4-1 ATS mark when playing
an avenging ACC opponent. New Pack coach Tom O?Brien edged Tommy
Bowden in a pair of closely contested thrillers while at Boston College but he
also got ripped to shreds by Clemson at Raleigh last year, 42-20. The truth is
the Tigers have a huge edge athletically and may be anxious to make amends
for their season-opening faux pas against Alabama. Lay it if you play it.



W Michigan over IDAHO by 7
The Broncos are another of our ?Mission Teams? ? suffered a losing season
the previous year after back-to-back winning campaigns ? but they certainly
haven?t played like it, opening 0-2 ATS and ITS (in the stats). The road to
redemption could easily start here in Moscow, Idaho, where WMU catches
the host Vandals celebrating a rare SU victory. Yes, last week the Potato
Heads (Idaho) beat their in-state rival Tater Heads (Idaho State) and snapped
a depressing 11-game losing streak. However, even counting that victory, the
Vandals have won just TWO of their previous 19 games. We think you should
forget about his, drag your own Mr. Potato Head out of the closet and see if
you can make him look like the presidential candidate of your choice.



C Michigan over OHIO U by 6
Ohio University was poised to pull off the Upset of the New Millennium last
week in Columbus but the Bobcats, as your local real estate agent might say,
couldn?t close the deal. Yes, 34-point underdog Ohio actually led the mighty
Buckeyes 14-12 after three quarters but succumbed to reality in the fi nal
stanza when Ohio State struck for 14 unanswered points. The 26-14 Bobcat
loss means they will either (a) play inspired football on the heels of their
miraculous performance or (b) show up as fl at as a Ross Perot crew-cut. We?re
guessing the latter, especially with the Chippewas winning and covering their
last four MAC openers. After getting trounced 56-17 by Georgia last week,
the prospect of taking on the Bobcats today should be like eyesight to the
blind for CMU. Check on the status of starting Ohio QB Theo Scott who left
early with a shoulder injury against OSU and did not return.



BUFFALO over Temple by 10
Temple lost a heartbreaker in OT to UConn last week but in truth the Owls had
been scattered to the four winds throughout most of the game. The Huskies
rushed for 203 yards and only missed fi eld goals and Connecticut turnovers
kept the Philly boys in the game. Yes, Temple does owe Buffalo some major
pain after the Bulls routed the favored Owls at home 42-7 last year but like
our BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW article on page 2 explains, overtime losers don?t
cut the ATS mustard on the highway. Buffalo is loaded with returning starters
on both sides of the ball and coach Turner Gill is getting a lot out of some notso-
highly recruited players. Buffy is also 5-2-2 ATS in MAC openers, including a
perfect 4-0 against teams off a loss. Looks bullish from where we?re sitting.



TENNESSEE over Uab by 24
UAB backers got incinerated last week when FAU broke a 73-yard scoring run
for the cover with just 40 seconds remaining (couldn?t they have put down
?the knee? and walked off the fi eld?). We still think the Blazers are quite the
scrappy bunch and these numbers don?t disagree: 6-0 as dogs of 4 > points in
the second of back-to-back away games, 4-1 ATS away against the SEC and
9-3 ATS as dogs of 20 > points. The Vols own some strong stats, too, going 5-0
ATS lately as double-digit non-conference chalk and 6-1 ATS when playing the
fi rst of two at Rocky Top. However, Tennessee is still waiting to crack the win
column in ?08 and can?t possibly ignore its HUGE triple revenge showdown with
Florida the following week. Big points + disinterested favorite = No Thanks.



East Carolina over TULANE by 10
Looks like ECU could be the feel-good story of the season. Off consecutive
program-building upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia (those two
teams combined to go 22-5 in 2007), Skip Holtz and his Pirates look to open
3-0 when they head to N?awlins to dispose of mediocre Tulane. Hmmm?
before we start a rush to the East Carolina window, we should inform you
that the Bucs from Greenville are a less-than-stellar 3-12 SU in their last 15
road openers (0-6 last 6!). You should also know that the Green Wave rolled
over the Tide yardage-wide in last week?s loss to Bama, outgaining Nick
Saban?s Tiger-slayers by a 318-172 margin. The Pirates were so giddy after
last Saturday?s decimation of the Mounties that more than one player was
quoted as saying, ?It feels like we won a championship today.? They may eat
those words: our PLAYBOOK database exposes Game Three road favorites off
a SU win and ATS cover as 5-24 ATS frauds when taking on conference foes.
Greenies make ?em sweat?

 

[the duke]

Cont

UCONN over Virginia by 13
As we previously noted, Connecticut ran roughshod over Temple last week
but continually shot themselves in the foot to turn a runaway into a nailbiter.
Overtime winners playing at home in their next game are a 55% grind (74-59-
2 ATS) but these Huskies are a perfect 5-0 against the number when playing
the fi rst of two in a row at Storrs. UConn would also love a little payback
here since the Cavs slipped past them 17-16 at Charlottesville in ?07. Virginia
was ground into absolute pulp by the Trojans to start the season (52-7 home
loss), then fought their way to a frustrating, mistake-fi lled 16-0 win over 1-AA
Richmond last week. UConn can legitimately blame many of their miscues on
playing the Temple game in a torrential downpour courtesy of Tropical Storm
Hannah. Still, the number looks pretty solid at this point in the week.



Oklahoma over WASHINGTON by 21
We got a good look at Oklahoma?s depth last Saturday as they turned a 28-
20 lead over Cincinnati into a 52-26 runaway when the Bearcats just ran out
of gas in the late going. In direct contrast, the downtrodden Huskies must
try to get back up off the mat following their incredibly cruel 1-point loss to
BYU, victimized by an outrageous unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that led
to a blocked extra point as time expired. Washington has a few numbers in
their corner here: the Seattle dogs are 16-6 ATS as home pups versus a foe
off a SU win while the Sooners are only 2-6 ATS when laying points to a PAC
10 opponent. This year?s Oklahoma team looks to be something special and
now is not the time to step in front of a hungry program seeking redemption
for four bowl losses in fi ve years. If you must play this, hitch a ride with the
Sooner Schooner.



USC over Ohio St by 11
Simply put, the Buckeyes suffered the Mother Of All Look-Aheads last week
in their near-disastrous meltdown against Ohio U, rallying late for a 26-
14 win (OSU was 34-point chalk). USC garnered a lot of praise for its ?men
against boys? destruction of Virginia and subsequently jumped to the top
spot in all the national polls. The Trojans have certainly owned this series,
winning fi ve straight games while outscoring the Bucks by an incredible 91-
6 margin. However, the current editions of both these fi ne programs are
loaded with top quality athletes and playmakers. Ohio State?s Jim Tressel
may have pulled a ?Marv Levy? in the last two BCS title games but he?s won
FIVE National Championships, owns a 14-4 SU record against unbeaten foes
(only ONE loss by more than 7 points) and stands 3-1 SU and ATS as a dog of
7 > points. USC?s Pete Carroll is also awash in pointspread success: 7-0 ATS as
HF?s off a SU win of 28 > points, 5-0 ATS as chalk versus the Big 10 and 9-2
ATS with rest. It?s tough to lay signifi cant points to this caliber of underdog
but the best of our SMART BOX is at work here and we must respect it. You
make the call.



Arizona over NEW MEXICO by 3
Alright, pipe down? enough of the ?not New Mexico again? complaints.
The fact is the Lobos have nothing but themselves to blame for their 0-2 start
? they outgained Texas A&M 370-236 in a 28-22 home loss last week but a 7-2
turnover bug has seemingly buried them early. Arizona is playing with a bit
more purpose in ?08 but this is essentially the same team that lost outright to
New Mexico 29-27 as a 9.5-point home favorite last year. Wildcats? head coach
Stoops doesn?t own many shiny pointspread credentials. He?s just 3-6 SU and
2-7 ATS when favored by fewer than 14 points, including 0-7 ATS when NOT
off an ATS loss. Our database chips in with this fi nal gem: bowlers who start
the season 0-2 SU and ATS at home in Game Three are a brain-melting 26-3
SU! With Zona laying doubles in its fi rst trip out of Tucson, we?ll hunker down
with these Lobos one more time.



BOISE ST over Bowling Green by 20
It?s one step up and two steps back for the BeeGees. They followed an
improbable 27-17 upset of Pittsburgh on opening weekend with a shocking
42-17 no-show at home against Big 10 bottom-feeder Minnesota (5 turnovers
killed the Falcons). BGSU could be in over its head on the blue carpet today?
the Falcs lost here 48-20 in 2005 and have covered just fi ve of their last 20
SU losses when taking points. The Broncos jealously guard their home turf,
winning 33 of the last 34 games SU while covering lined home games to the
tune of 37-14 ATS. That?s strong medicine as they say in these parts and with
the best of the SMART BOX in agreement, looks like we?ll be wearing blue
and orange today.



Utah over UTAH ST by 25
QB Brian Johnson has led the Utes to an impressive 2-0 start and is probably
counting the minutes until he can take the fi eld here with a chance to
embarrass a hated foe in its home opener. The last two meetings on this
fi eld resulted in 48 and 42-point blowouts by Utah, so it?s no surprise the
Aggies have dropped four straight ATS at home in the series. Utah State
is also a feeble 1-5 ATS lately as home dogs of 18 > points ? a perfect
bookend for Utah?s sparkling 19-4 ATS mark in its last 23 SU wins as road
chalk. There?ll be a blowout or two on the board today; this could be one
of them.




SAN JOSE ST over San Diego St by 7
Gutsy performances by both these teams on the road last Saturday. The
Aztecs fi nished their loss to Notre Dame with no less than fi ve defensive
linemen out of the game but still outstatted the Irish in a game they could
have won. Meanwhile, Dick Tomey?s Spartans threw a scare into Nebraska
before fi nally being subdued 35-12. San Jose State owns a 4-1 ATS edge in
the series and with both teams in need of a win, the feeling here is that San
Diego State could bring last week?s loss to the fi eld today. Slight edge to the
Spartans.



ARIZONA ST over Unlv by 27
It could be time for the U.S. Treasury to investigate ASU head coach Dennis
Erickson because the man continues to manufacture money at home, courtesy
of a 49-28-3 ATS record. That badge of honor contains another jewel in its
setting, a 33-13 ATS record off a double-digit win. The Sun Devils are also 5-1
ATS in the third of three straight home games and have cashed in fi ve of six
Game Three situations. UNLV may have fought Utah tough for three quarters
but they walk into this matchup barefooted: 0-7 ATS in the second of back-toback
away games, 1-8 ATS after tangling with the Utes and 1-6 ATS in Game
Three. We could continue but you know which way we?re going. Welcome to
Erickson Printing? start the presses!







ADDED GAMES


MICHIGAN ST over Fla Atlantic by 17
Both teams got back on the winning track last week when Michigan State
emulsifi ed Eastern Michigan, 42-10, while Howie Longname?s Owls scored
with a 15-point win over UAB. Tricky trends at work here with the Spartans
1-8 ATS as home chalk of 24 or less when playing off a win and FAU just 1-10
ATS as a dog of more than 21 points. A Notre Dame (1-7 ATS before the Irish)
look-ahead puts any thoughts of MSU on hold.




ALABAMA over W Kentucky by 28
Hilltoppers 3rd straight road game fi nds them winless in their last four games
against SEC competition by an average losing margin of 37.5 PPG. Somehow
the Tide was held to a mere 172 yards offense in last week?s lethargic win over
Tulane. Granted, a letdown was in order following their romp over Clemson
but 172 yards of offense? No interest here.




ARKANSAS ST over Southern Miss by 7
There appears to be a new predator in the Sun Belt and it?s a Red Wolf.
Hungry like the wolf, Arkansas State laid 83 points and 670 yards on Texas
Southern last week. They are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games in Jonesboro and
they outstatted the Golden Eagles in a 16-10 season-ending loss last year. Yes,
they can play. Sure, Smissy is 13-1 ATS in Game Threes but need we remind
you that was under former head coach Jeff Bower. To conclude, our database
tells us that home teams are 17-2 SU after scoring 74 more points in their last
game. Beware of the Canis lupus rufus!




KENTUCKY over Mid Tennessee St by 16
A lot has changed since the Blue Raiders last invaded Lexington in 2002.
MTSU dropped a 44-22 decision as 6-point dogs. That was Andy McCollum
against Guy Morriss, back when both teams were struggling for identity.
Today it?s Rick Stockstill against Rich Brooks as both programs have turned
the corner. The Wildcats railroaded Norfolk, 38-3, while the Blue Raiders
stunned Maryland, 24-14, as 13-point underdogs last week. Brooks? toughest
task these days will be to keep his team focused between now and its next big
game against Alabama the fi rst week in October.




ILLINOIS over La Lafayette by 28
It?s that ho-hum portion of the schedule for the nation?s elite teams, meaning
it?s all on the coaches to keep their teams fully focused in these pay-forslaughter
games. The SMART BOX reminds us that we want no part of the
Ragin? Cajuns. So does their 1-9 ATS mark with rest and a 1-7 ATS log in games
off a loss of 21 or more points. If Penn State weren?t up next for the Illini we?d
be fi ring up the Poulan this weekend.




LSU over North Texas by 48
Thanks to Gustav, the Bengals become a prime SMART BOX play this week
and Les Miles is absolutely loving it. Like Urban Meyer, Miles chews up nonconference
foes with a passion, going 19-6-1 ATS in his college football head
coaching career, including 16-3-1 when laying points. That fi ts like a silk slipper
when North Texas is involved as the Lean Machine is 0-8 ATS in Game Threes,
0-5 ATS against the SEC and 1-7 ATS in the fi rst of BB road games. Timber!


NFL



5* BEST BET
Now that we?ve paid the bills with Buffalo, it?s time to charge things up
with the Jags. Jax boss Jack Del Rio warms up when facing non-division
opposition, going 34-19 SU and ATS in his NFL career, including 17-7-1
ATS as a host. Better yet, he?s 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS at home in Games
One thru Thirteen against a foe off one-win exact. Buffi e enters off last
week?s wire-to-wire home win over Seattle, to which they were quoted
as saying, ?Hopefully we made a statement today.? The problem is this
is GAME TWO of the season, a bit early on for a 7-win team last year
to be vouching about its self -proclaimed status. When last we checked
the Bills were averaging 9 PPG in their last nine road games! That won?t
cut it here today. Buffalo falls to 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in games against
opponents off a SU favorite loss here today. Purchase approved.
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo by 20



4* BEST BET
Yet another Game Two matchup involving teams off disparate results
last Sunday. The Joe Flacco era got off to a resounding start when he
combined with Atlanta?s Matt Ryan to become the 2nd NFL quarterback
tandem since 1971 to win debut games on Week One (FYI: Archie
Manning and Jim Plunkett were the others). It should be noted that
NFL teams taking to the non-division road in Game Two off a SU home
dog win are a meager 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS if they were a losing team
the prior year. The Texans will look to their 7-1 ATS mark at home under
Gary Kubiak against opponents off a win to get back on track quickly.
It?s never hard fading rookie QB?s in their fi rst road outing, especially
those with a 63.7 QB rating. We?re deep in the heart of?
HOUSTON over Baltimore by 13




3* BEST BET
Last week?s two biggest upset makers collide in Carolinas. The Bears
avenged their Super Bowl loss to the Colts with a shocking win at
Indianapolis while the Panthers pounced on the Chargers in a stirring
last-play-of-the-game win at San Diego. What to do for an encore?
If you?re Carolina head coach John Fox the plan would be avoid the
dreaded FAVORITE moniker as his team is 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS in its
franchise history when laying points against a .500 or better opponent
in Games 1 thru 6. Bears? boss Lovie Smith counters at 5-1 ATS as an NFL
head coach when facing a foe off a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SU
and ATS away Now, where else can you fi nd info like that other than
the PLAYBOOK? No deliberating here, It?s Da Bears.
Chicago over CAROLINA by 7





KANSAS CITY over Oakland by 6
It?s strange to see a team that has lost each of its last 10 games in a row
donning the role of a favorite. However, when you?re talking about the Chiefs
and home-opening games, the oddsmaker knows what he?s doing. That?s
because Kansas City is 20-7 SU and 20-5-1 ATS in home openers, including
12-0-1 ATS when hosting a division rival. Tough to fade numbers like those
especially considering that teams in Game Two, off a season-opening Monday
Night game, are just 13-26 ATS when facing a foe that is seeking revenge
? including 9-25 if that foe won 4 or more games last season. You say the
visiting team is 9-0 ATS in this series. We say 9-1 is in the making.




CINCINNATI over Tennessee by 1
Ocho Cinco hooked up with Ocho Nuevo (Carson Palmer?s 89 total passing
yards) for ONE CATCH in the Bengals? embarrassing 17-10 loss at Baltimore,
immediately prompting Marvin Lewis to ask for a refund from Rosetta Stone.
Cincinnati season ticket holders will be doing the same if they fail to get by
the Vince Young-less Titans today. Coming to the Striped Cats? aid is the fact
that NFL teams in Game Two playing off a SU favorite loss are 12-4 SU and ATS
when facing an opponent off a SU underdog win in which the foe covered
the spread by more than nine points since 1983. With Jeff Fisher one of the
league?s best underdog coaches and Lewis a paltry 1-7-1 ATS as a favorite off
a SU and ATS loss in which he failed to the spread by 7 or more points, it?s ?no
way Jose? for either team for us today.




Indianapolis over MINNESOTA by 3
So much for not taking a snap during the preseason. Ask Peyton Manning
and Tom Brady their thoughts on the subject and we?re certain it would
differ from their coaches? point of view. Manning was as rusty as a 50-year
old hooker in Baghdad in the Colts? stunning loss to the Bears, posting an
81.8 QB Rating for the game. Will he fi nd the groove in the Metrodome
this Sunday? Not unless his offensive line and TE Dallas Clark gets healthy.
Sure, Tony Dungy is 19-13 ATS in his career in games off a SU favorite loss,
including 10-4 as a favorite of less than 7 points. But with Minny also reeling
off a tough Monday night scrape with the Packers, we?ll sit back and observe for now.



WASHINGTON over New Orleans by 3
With the Saints off a season-opening win and cover and the Skins on the
opposite end of that ladder, it would be easy to run with the gang from
Bourbon Street here today. To that we say no. For the 2nd week in a row
New Orleans tackles a team that improved on both sides of the ball last year
while the Saints slipped both ways in 2007. They needed a timely INT in the
end zone to stave off Tampa Bay last week. They?ll need more than that to
hold off the Hogs today. It?s Jim Zorn?s home debut and his Porkers take the
fi eld knowing they are 10-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 2 points in
games after scoring less than 10 points when facing a foe off a win. We?ll
know more after today exactly where each of these teams fi t on the NFC
power chain.



DETROIT over Green Bay by 7
Shame on the oddsmakers. The Lions took another of their famous road
dumps when they lost in Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites last Sunday. Like Peter,
Paul and Mary said, ?When will they ever learn?? They sing a different tune
at home, however. It?s here where they are 7-0 ATS in September off a nondivision
SU and ATS loss. They are also 15-2 ATS at home as a division dog or
favorite of 4 or less points after allowing more than 28 points in their last
game. The Pack attack lacks in division games when coming off a division
battle. That?s confi rmed by its 0-8-1 ATS mark when taking on a sub .500
division rival that lost its last game SU as a favorite. Monday night hangover
at its best here today.




NY Giants over ST. LOUIS by 3
Welcome to this week?s ?clothespin special?. Take a poll of the fans who
watched last week?s Rams? ruination against the Eagles and it would be hard
to get any of them to cast a vote St. Louis? way. Toss in the loss of WR Drew
Bennett and Scott Linehan?s putrid 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS mark as an NFL head
coach in games against winning teams and you?d be hard pressed to fi nd
many fans in St. Louis that like the Redbirds? chances today. Enter Captain
Contrarian. For openers, defending Super Bowl champions are a measly 35-
55 ATS as non-division road favorites the next year. When favored in road
openers they are just 6-16 ATS, including 1-7 when playing off one-win exact.
No surprise whatsoever to see the Rams improve to 7-1 ATS as a September
home dog here today. Start your clothespins.



TAMPA BAY over Atlanta by 7
Nice job by the Falcons in Mike Smith?s debut as an NFL coach. Not only did
his team rush the ball for over 300 yards against the listless Lions, they also
?improved? to 8-23 SU and ATS as home dogs of late (that?s how bad things had
become in Atlanta). If they?re able to generate HALF the rushing yards they
produced last week, they?ll be in great shape: NFL road dogs who rush for 150
or more yards in a game are an eye-popping 312-67-9 ATS! That?s 80.4% ATS,
likely enough to keep us out of any thoughts we may be harboring for the Bucs.
Sure, this is Matt Ryan?s initial foray on the NFL road but that rushing stat scares
the crap out of us.




SEATTLE over San Francisco by 6
First, our apologies to Niners? QB J.T. O?Sullivan. We referred to him as
O?Connell on these pages last week. His uncle, Gilbert, called us to correct
the faux pas. Him and his teammates will be up against it when they take
on a surly Seahawks squad that was squashed, 34-10, at Buffalo last week.
Most pundits would come running to Seattle?s defense, citing the need for
a bounce back. Us, we?re likely to be alone on an island in our assessment
as we prefer to call out Seattle?s sour 3-10-1 ATS mark as a favorite in games
off a DD SU and ATS loss under Mike Holmgren. Then there?s the Seahawk
supporters that will choose to turn a blind eye to San Francisco?s 10-1 ATS
record in September when facing a foe off a DD SU loss. We don?t mind. We?ll
take the points as we remain ?alone again, naturally?.




ARIZONA over Miami by 3
A game effort by the Dolphins in their Tuna-debut last week when they
fell painfully close in a 6-point loss to Brett Favre and the Jets. At least they
resembled a competitive team, an important fi rst step in its strive to return to
respectability. Our database reminds us that 1-win teams (from the previous
season) off a loss taking 6 or more points from a team off a win in which it
scored more than 20 points are 10-2 ATS. That fi ts nicely into Miami?s 10-1
ATS mark as a non-division dog of 6 or more points. A huge 5-0 turnover
edge propelled Arizona to a 23-13 win over the Niners, a game in which San
Francisco outgained the Cardinals. Zona?s 1-12 ATS mark as a favorite of 7 or
more points cements it. Hang up the sign... we?re going fi shing.



NY JETS over New England by 6
My, oh my. The best laid plans are now history with Pats QB Tom Brady done
for the season. Bill Belichick must now turn to Matt Cassel, a quarterback who
hasn?t played a full game of signifi cance since high school, in hopes of getting
his team back to the playoffs sans its Superstar. The truth of the matter is the line
in this game has likely shifted 7 points because of Brady?s injury. Our AWESOME
ANGLE (see page 2) doesn?t mind and neither do the Jets. Sure, New England?s
20 straight game regular season win streak is on the line today but the bottom
line is one team is shell-shocked while the other is giddy at the prospect of its
new Hall of Fame QB now favored to lead its team to the promised land. This is
simple: Brett Favre versus Matt Cassel. Case closed.



DENVER over San Diego by 4
The 2nd of season-opening division games fi nds the Broncos looking to
atone for a pair of disturbing losses suffered against the Chargers last year.
Those occurred when San Diego held Denver to a fi eld goal in each game,
thus contributing to a disappointing 7-9 effort last year. Rest assured Mike
Shanahan is aware of what happened and he?s mad-as-hell about it. Shanahan
is 23-13-2 ATS in his career with division revenge, including 12-4 ATS when the
foe is off a loss. On the other side of the coin is Norv Turner. Aside from being
a slow starter (13-18 SU and ATS in fi rst two games of the season), he is just
28-42-2 ATS in division play. Worse, Turner is 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in his initial
division game of the season in his NFL head coaching career. We like Mike.



Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND by 7
When a team more than doubles its win total, while going from loser to
winner from one season to the next, and its defense declined it?s surely a sign
of an overrated club. Meet the Cleveland Browns. They were exposed last
week (we bit, we?re sorry to say) and don?t fi gure to put the pieces back in
place anytime soon. Not with a unit that is without three of its top offensive
threats (KR Joshua Cribbs, WR?s Donte Stallworth and Joe Jurevicious). To
make matters worse, they host a team that has bullied and dominated them
like a red-headed stepchild (Steelers 8-1 ATS last nine in the series, including
5-0 here). Until they return to health and start playing some defense we?ll
keep them on our ?off-list? for the time being.




DALLAS over Philadelphia by 7
Impressive outings by both teams puts this game in the national spotlight,
under the Monday Night lights to boot. Good numbers abound for both
sides, too. The Eagles are 11-6 SU and ATS on Mondays behind Andy Reid,
including 7-0 SU and ATS when playing off a win of 7 or more points. They are
also 19-12 SU and 21-10 ATS on the division road under Andy. The Cowboys
counter at 17-11 ATS in Monday night division duels, including 9-3 in Games
1 thru 3. Wade Phillips chips in at 12-3 SU and ATS at home off a win versus
an opponent off a win, including 6-1 in division games. His 1-6 ATS mark in
Monday night games is the only negative note.

 

[the duke]

The Gold Sheet

NCAA

KEY RELEASES

UCLA by 3 over Byu
OREGON STATE by 26 over Hawaii
FRESNO STATE by 11 over Wisconsin
WASHINGTON Plus over Oklahoma



***Ucla 26 - BYU 23?Dodging last week?s bullet in Seattle temporarily
keeps BYU?s BCS dreams alive. But remember, BYU wasn?t better than UCLA
a year ago, when teams split a pair and Cougs were fortunate to survive Las
Vegas Bowl nailbiter. And despite early injuries piling up for Rick Neuheisel?s
Bruins, they were resilient enough to overcome Tennessee in opener.
Emergence of QB Craft gives sage UCLA o.c. Chow (back in old Provo haunt)
some options, and Bruins? 11 straight covers in dog role impressive!
(07-UCLA 27-Byu 17...B.23-15 U.37/110 B.25/44 B.30/53/1/391 U.13/28/1/126 U.0 B.3)
(07-Byu 17 - Ucla 16...U18-17 U47-162 B.28/34 B.21/35/0/231 U.11/29/1/154 B.1 U.2)
(07-UCLA -8 27-17; Byu -6 17-16 (Las Vegas Bowl)...SR: UCLA 7-2)


***OREGON STATE 42 - Hawaii 16?Home cooking can?t help but
agree with OSU after its Stanford & Penn State misadventures. But look hard
enough and there might be a silver lining for Beavers, as frosh RB Jacquizz
Rodgers hinting at gamebreaker status, and sr. WRs Stroughter & Morales
providing reliable targets for QB Moevao. Meanwhile, UH Red Gun a long way
from past editions, with new HC McMackin juggling QBs Funaki & Graunke and
rebuilt WR corps in adjustment phase. (06-Oregon State +8 35-32...SR: OSU 4-3)





***FRESNO STATE 32 - Wisconsin 21?We?re still not sure Fresno is
ready to crash the BCS party or re-establish control of WAC (Boise State is still
quite formidable), but this rare opportunity to host a major foe is the sort of
assignment Pat Hill?s Bulldogs have lived for this decade. Granted,
Wisconsin?s power game will be a challenge, but this is first road start as a
Badger for QB Evridge, and Wiscy aerial game compromised if key TE Beckum
still out or still slowed by nagging hamstring. FSU?s QB Brandstater?s
confidence grows if RB Matthews (163 YR vs. Rutgers) provides necessary
infantry diversion. REGIONAL TV?ABC (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)


***WASHINGTON 27 - Oklahoma 38?Rest assured U-Dub?s end zone
celebrations will be about as subdued as one of Bob Schieffer?s ?Face the
Nation? interviews after last week?s costly penalty on Jake Locker at the death
of the game vs. BYU. And though Huskies might not be in a position to level
matters with OU at the end as they were vs. Cougars, UW proved it could dig
deep at home and deliver a kamikaze effort for the under-fire, but wellrespected
Ty Willingham. Tough to trade points with QB Bradford and Sooner
no-huddle scoring 55 ppg, but OU ?D? had some leaks exposed by Cincy last
week. CABLE TV?ESPN (06-OKLAHOMA -16' 37-20...SR: EVEN 1-1)





THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11
*RUTGERS 31 - North Carolina 30?Scarlet Knights itching to get in win
column after dropping home opener vs. Fresno State. Sr. QB Teel will hit some
big plays to top-notch WRs Britt & Underwood. But Rutgers misses recordsetting
RB Rice in red zone. Confident Carolina soph QB Yates has
wherewithal to trade points for full 60 minutes, as Britt & Underwood have
nothing on Tar Heels? dynamic WR duo of sr. Tate (397 total yards in opener!)
and jr. Nicks. TV-ESPN
(06-Rutg. +4' 21-16...SR: Rutg. 3-0)




FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

*SOUTH FLORIDA 23 - Kansas 20?Jayhawks have now covered a
bankroll-swelling 16 of their last 19 vs. spread! And nifty KU jr. QB Reesing (32
of 38 for 412 yards) was near flawless during last week?s whitewash of La. Tech.
USF counterpart Grothe a plenty resourceful field general himself, however,
and Bulls are 8-2 against line their last 10 in front of burgeoning crowds at
Tampa. Must get at least a FG to support Jayhawks vs. speedy, swarming USF
stop unit. CABLE TV?ESPN2
(06-KANSAS -4 13-7...SR: Kansas 1-0)




SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

Navy 38 - DUKE 33?Scouts say Duke jr. triggerman Lewis (23 TDP, only
10 ints. last 1+ seasons) rapidly maturing under tutelage of new HC & respected
QB guru Cutcliffe. Still, lean to more confident Navy over success-starved
Devils, especially if Middies? slippery starting sr. QB Kaheaku-Enhada (check
status; missed first 2 games with hamstring) able to make post.
(07-NAVY 46-Duke 43...N.29-21 N.69/304 D.26/78 D.23/36/1/428 N.13/21/1/236 N.0 D.1)
(07-NAVY -13' 46-43 06-Navy -10' 38-13 05-Navy -6 28-21...SR: Navy 20-12-5)



VANDERBILT 31 - Rice 27?HC Bobby Johnson says ?the ante has been
raised? for his Vandy squad, gunning for its first 3-0 start since 1984. Still,
believe ?Dores will have a hard time pulling away from a veteran, plucky Rice,
uplifted by exhilirating last-second, 42-35 win at Memphis. Vandy?s dual threat
QB Nickson won?t be contained, but Owls will trade most of way behind poised
sr. QB Clement and duo of WR Dillard (NCAA active leader in catches, yds. &
TDs) & 23-year-old TE/FB Casey (combined 32 catches so far). Rice has
covered 6 of past 7 as a dog. (DNP...SR: Vanderbilt 2-1)



Auburn 26 - MISSISSIPPI ST. 10?After mashing MSU 5 straight times,
Auburn players say they took Bulldogs ?too lightly? prior to LY?s 19-14 upset loss
on The Plains. Not here. So, willing to lay single-digits with payback-minded
Tigers, who now possess the aerial game?QB Todd 21 of 31 for 248 YP vs.
Southern Miss?to balance ground attack. MSU ?s limited QB Carroll (only 11
TDP, 10 ints. L1+Ys) unable to consistently burn athletic AU 2ndary, while
Bulldogs bread & butter run game stymied by Tigers fierce front 7 (held Golden
Eagles star RB Fletcher to a mere 29 YR!).
(07-Miss. St. 19-AUB. 14...A.16-14 A.46/216 M.43/172 A.12/22/3/107 M.5/18/0/41 M.1 A.2)
(07-Msu +12' 19-14 06-Aub. -21 34-0 05-AUB. -15 28-0...SR: Auburn 56-23-2)



AKRON 32 - Ball State 31?Akron QB Jacquemain (67%, 5 TDP, just 1 int.)
obviously improved this season. The return to form of RB Dennis Kennedy (all-
MAC in ?06, injured much of last season), addition of juco WR Deryn Bowser,
and a vet offensive line have made the Zip spread hum. Respect BSU QB Nate
Davis (81%) & RB MiQuale Lewis (6.5 ypc), but the Card defense yielded 5.9
ypc vs. Navy and is vulnerable on front line.
(05-BALL STATE +3 23-17...SR: EVEN 9-9-1)




EASTERN MICHIGAN 35 - Toledo 28?Both coming off shellackings at the
hands of higher-class foes. Toledo?s ?D? allowed 40 ppg LY and appears
unimproved, and Rockets just 3-14 last 17 on the road overall. Vet Eagle QB
Andy Schmitt and RB Terrence Blevins (7.7 ypc) should find going easier
against pliable Rocket defense.
(07-TOLEDO 52-E. Mich. 28...T.26-24 T.44/324 E.44/217 T.17/29/0/276 E.18/34/2/200 T.1 E.0)
(07-TOLEDO -8 52-28 06-EMU -1 17-13 05-TOLEDO -20' 30-3...SR: Toledo 24-11)



MISSOURI 52 - Nevada 20?Nevada?s offense (488 yds. last week vs.
Texas Tech; QB Kaepernick 92 YR & 264 YP) can?t be taken lightly. However,
defense very vulnerable to big plays. Mizzou WR/RB/KR Jeremy Maclin likely
to break a few. Meanwhile, Tiger QB Chase Daniel (16 of 17 before departing
early last week vs. SE Mizzou) nearly prefect if opponents can?t pressure him.
(FIRST MEETING)



TEXAS TECH 54 - Smu 23?Mustang QB Bo Levi Mitchell (5 TDP in last
week?s 47-36 victory over Texas State) is learning June Jones? pass-happy
offense quickly. But rebuilding SMU secondary (10 TDP first two games!)
appears to have light years to go. Mustangs must avoid turnovers or face
prospect of a near-record day for Graham Harrell & 6-3 WR Michael Crabtree.
(07-Tex. Tech 49-SMU 9...T.30-15 S.31/115 T.18/80 T.50/66/0/473 S.16/34/2/155 T.0 S.1)
(07-Texas Tech -9 49-9 06-TEXAS TECH -26 35-3...SR: Texas Tech 29-15)



NEBRASKA 48 - New Mexico State 20?First game for N.M. State, which
DNP two weeks ago, then had its opener last week vs. Nicholls State of
Thibodaux, LA postponed due to Nicholls? concerns regarding Hurricane
Gustav. Aggies, with 6-5 sr. Chase Holbrook (70%, 26 TDs, 18 ints. LY) and his
experienced receivers, should score some. But the undersized NMS defense
(40 ppg vs. FBS teams LY) is a problem. Ags 1-5 as road dog LY.
(DNP...SR: Nebraska 2-0)




Oregon 33 - PURDUE 31?Oregon is quickly moving up on ?go-with? lists.
Ducks have already posted a pair of lopsided wins, as HC Mike Bellotti?s offense
is loaded. QB Justin Roper (69%, 10 ypp) has made Oregon fans forget Dennis
Dixon just as RB Jeremiah Johnson (shoulder injury; check status) & juco
LeGarrette Blount (combined 8.3 ypc) have made them forget Jonathan
Stewart. However, ?price? is elevating as Ducks face skillful Boiler QB Painter
in OU?s toughest test of 2008. (DNP...SR: Purdue 1-0)



TEXAS 31 - Arkansas 16?Razorbacks, learning the new systems of Bobby
Petrino, have struggled for much of their first two games, having to come from
behind to beat Western Illinois and UL-Monroe. However, Arkansas always sky
high when it plays Texas, and youthful Longhorn secondary still a work in
progress. Hogs plenty young themselves on defense, but they own far more
raw talent overall than UT?s first two victims of Florida Atlantic and UTEP.
REGIONAL TV?ABC (DNP...SR: Texas 55-21)



Georgia 20 - SOUTH CAROLINA 16?With pointspread rising following
disparate results, would consider extra value with wounded but angry South
Carolina (off Vandy loss) in a defensive-oriented series (see Looking for an
Angle). UGA owns more impressive arsenal with dazzling, tackler-hurdling
soph RB Moreno (career-best 168 YR vs. CMU), but ?Cocks blitz packages
equipped to exploit Dawgs young OL in first acid test of season. If USC?s top
weapon WR McKinley returns, QB Smelley (233 YP vs. Vandy) & slashing M.
Davis able to execute some Spurrier-designed ?trick? plays. Recommend
?under? in what figures to be another, loooww-scoring battle.
07-S. Car. 16-GA. 12...S.21-20 S.34/140 G.31/128 G.19/45/1/213 S.20/31/0/174 S.0 G.0)
(07-Usc +3' 16-12 06-Uga -3 18-0 05-UGA -18 17-15...SR: Georgia 44-14-2)



HOUSTON 35 - Air Force 26?Lean to UH squad that?s 15-4 SU at
Robertson Stadium since 2005 (3 of those losses by combined 10 pts.).
Fundamentally, Cougs seasoned (and embarrassed) defense able to put 8-9 in
box vs. AF?s grinding, option attack (Falcon QB Shea attempted only 4 passes
vs. Wyo) after being ?stretched-out? (putting it nicely) by Oklahoma State?s
explosive, superbly-balanced offense. Look for UH QB Keenum (779 YP so far;
81 YR vs. Cowboys) to score quickly and often vs. rebuilt, smallish AF 2ndary.
Tread lightly, since AF has covered 8 straight in reg.-season.
(FIRST MEETING)



Penn State 42 - SYRACUSE 10?Insiders at Syracuse say last week?s
humbling home loss to MAC rep Akron has turned beleaguered Orange HC
Robinson?s seat from hot to sizzling. Meanwhile, negative publicity associated
with PSU?s frequent off-field problems seems to have engendered an allbusiness
attitude among Lions on the gridiron. Balanced PSU attack racked up
1048 yards in first 2 games.
(DNP...SR: Penn State 40-23-5)



Michigan 17 - NOTRE DAME 16?Michigan?s transition to the spread under
Rich Rodriguez took another step in the wrong direction in lackluster effort
against Miami-O., as the Wolverines? third-down efficiency has been terrible.
ND also failed to impress in narrow win over SDS, as Jimmy Clausen?s 3 TD
passes were mitigated by a pair of interceptions. In what figures to be a lowscoring
affair, would take any points available. TV?NBC
(07-MICH. 38-N. Dame 0...M.25-10 M.61/289 N.33/M6 M.7/16/0/90 N.13/22/2/85 M.2 N.2)
(07-MICH. -8' 38-0 06-Mich. +5 47-21 05-Und +7' 17-10...SR: Michigan 20-14-1)



IOWA 24 - Iowa State 20?Both offenses off to tremendous starts in first two
games, as the teams have averaged 43 ppg. Iowa HC Ferentz moved Stanzi
into the starting QB spot against FIU, and he responded with 8 of 10 passing
and 3 TDPs. Although both he and Jake Christensen will play, Christensen
elicted boos from the Hawkeye faithful as his indecisiveness again resulted in
needless sacks. Iowa State has covered 9 of last 10 in series, and Cyclones are
getting big plays out of QBs Arnaud (77%) and Bates (leading rusher, 8.1 ypc).
(07-IOWA ST. 15-Iowa 13...S.17-16 S.39/143 U.34/115 S.21/29/0/157 U.12/23/0/118 S.1 U.0)
(07-ISU +17' 15-13 06-IOWA -13' 27-17 05-ISU +9' 23-3...SR: Iowa 36-19)



VIRGINIA TECH 17 - Georgia Tech 14?Sure, Ga. Tech?s new option attack
a work in progress. But soph QB Nesbitt & soph FB Dwyer (220 YR & 3 TDs on
7.6 ypc in first 2 games) are very well-suited to the scheme installed by savvy
former Navy HC Paul Johnson (21-8-1 last 30 as dog!). Plus, it?s not as if host
Hokies? sputtering offense (only 68 YP vs. Furman) appears ready for prime
time. Eager to grab points in anticipated defensive struggle.
(07-Va. Tech 27-GA. TECH 3...G.13-10 V.46/185 G.26/105 V.22/33/0/296 G.12/29/5/166 V.1 G.1)
(07-Vtu +2' 27-3 06-Gtu +9' 38-27 05-VTU -10' 51-7...SR: Virginia Tech 3-2)



CLEMSON 38 - North Carolina State 13?Retooling Clemson OL could
have some trouble with N.C. State?s athletic front 7. Still, Wolfpack already
down to 3rd-string QB Beck last week, and limited NCS weaponry pales in
comparison to Tigers? substantial cast of speedy playmakers.
(07-Clem. 42-N. CAR. ST. 20...C.32-15 C.50/340 N.23/55 C.25/39/0/268 N.19/34/3/147 C.0 N.0)
(07-Clem. -7 42-20 06-CLEM. -17' 20-14 05-Clem. +4' 31-10...SR: Clemson 49-26-1)



Western Michigan 40 - IDAHO 28?We?re sure Idaho enjoyed a rare chance
to imitate Fox News? Bill O?Reilly and play bully role vs. outmanned Idaho State
last week. But fact is that Vandals on 1-9 spread run, and soph QB Enderle (3
picks in opener vs. Arizona) still prone to mistakes. Would rather trust WMU?s
established jr. QB Hiller (45 TDP, 19 ints. career) and RB West to fire majority
of scoring shots at Kibbie Dome.
(DNP...SR: Western Michigan 1-0)



*OHIO 27 - Central Michigan 26?After losing (but covering) in the altitude
of Wyoming and the ?Big Horshoe? in Columbus, Ohio will be primed to get its
first win returning home. Defending MAC champ CMU is loaded offensively
again with league MVP QB Dan LeFevour. However, can?t help but be
impressed with Bobcats? effort against the Buckeyes (led in 4th Q). Ohio HC
Solich has a veteran 2ndary, but shoulder injury of QB Theo Scott (check
status) might be a problem (backup ?Boo? Jackson threw 3 picks vs. Buckeyes).
(06-Cmu -3' 31-10 at Detroit 05-CMU -6 37-10...SR: Central Michigan 19-4-2)



*California 27 - MARYLAND 19?After last week?s disparate results, must
be wary of laying inflated price with enigmatic Cal (only 6-12-1 vs. spread last
19 as visitor). Can find few reasons to back troubled Maryland (just 9-18 last 27
on board), however. Terp QBs have completed just 50% with 5 ints. and only
1 TDP, while burgeoning Bears have blazed their way to 104 points in first 2
games behind quick-striking RBs Best & Vereen (combined 492 YR on 8.8 ypc,
including 3 TDs of 80+ yards!). (FIRST MEETING)


*BAYLOR 27 - Washington State 23?New regimes for both teams.
Washington State stepping down in class after big losses by combined score of
105-16 (!) vs. Oklahoma State and Cal. So Baylor?s psyche much better after
unleashing true frosh spread offense QB Robert ?Rambo?Griffin, who passed
for 3 TDs and ran for 42 yards in his first-start, 51-6 demolition of Northwestern
State (6-5 LY). Cougars averaging only 182 ypg of offense with shaky QBing.
(06-WASHINGTON ST. -13 17-15 at Seattle...SR: Baylor 3-2)



*TCU 27 - Stanford 20?Lopsided loss at Arizona State indicates Jim
Harbaugh?s Stanford not quite ready for prime time. But upon closer inspection,
Cardinal can likely slow down TCU?s voracious blitzers with improved infantry
provided by slamming RB Gerhart, who?s added a power-run dimension not
seen on the Farm since days of ?Touchdown? Tommy Vardell. And there are
enough playmakers on vet Tree ?D? to keep Frogs? dinking soph QB Dalton from
causing major damage.
(07-Tcu 38-STAN. 36...T.29-27 S.49/170 T.48/150 T.23/34/0/344 S.15/30/0/194 T.1 S.0)
(07-Tcu -6 38-36...SR: TCU 1-0)



*BUFFALO 30 - Temple 20?Key MAC East Division battle between former
doormats turned contenders. Substantial rush edge owned by host Bulls &
hard-charging jr. RB Starks. Will Temple let disappointment of last week?s
depressing double-OT home loss to UConn linger?
(07-Buf. 42-TEMPLE 7...B.21-10 B.45/224 T.25/M36 B.20/22/1/190 T.15/27/2/177 B.2 T.1)
(07-Buffalo +3' 42-7 06-BUFFALO -6 9-3 (OT)...SR: Buffalo 3-0)



*TENNESSEE 48 - Uab 13?After fuming Phil Fulmer called UT?s bitter 27-
24 OT loss at UCLA ?unacceptable,? expect UT to come out smoking vs.
overmatched UAB, just 2-6 last 8 as a DD dog. Vols green but skillful QB
Crompton & his star-studded cast should have its way vs. ?invisible? Blazer
defense that has allowed a whopping 94 pts. vs. non-BCS squads Tulsa and
Florida Atlantic. Resilient Vols (6-1-1 vs. spread last 8 following SU loss)
seeking a stifling defensive effort in preparation for visit from Tim Tebow & Co.
next week. (05-TENNESSEE -22 17-10...SR: Tennessee 2-0)



*East Carolina 26 - TULANE 16?After last week?s impressive beat-down of
highly-ranked West Virginia, ECU is now 28-11 vs. spread since Skip Holtz took
helm! ?Nuff said? Maybe. But no surprise if Pirates have hard time reaching
emotional peak for trip to lightly-regarded Tulane, which showed a lot of moxie
on defense in 20-6 loss at Alabama.
(07-E. CAR. 35-Tulane 12...E.22-17 E.46/219 T.32/108 T.20/38/1/228 E.14/21/0/222 E.2 T.1)
(07-EAST CAROLINA -12' 35-12...SR: East Carolina 7-2)



*Memphis 35 - MARSHALL 33?Tigers down in the dumps after blowing 15-
point 4th-Q lead in home loss to Rice, which scored winning TD on long int.
return with less than a minute left in game. Substantial edge to hale & hardy
Memphis aerial attack and its plethora of rangy receiving targets. However,
host Thundering Herd has more defensive resolve and runs ball better.
(07-MEM. 24-Mar. 21...Ma.25-24 Ma.34/185 Me.35/99 Me.30/46/0/346 Ma.23/32/1/220 Me.0 Ma.1)
(07-MEM. -2' 24-21 06-MAR. -9' 41-27 05-MEM. -10' 26-3...SR: Memphis 2-1)



*CONNECTICUT 21 - Virginia 16?Home-field advantage significant for
UConn, which is 13-4 vs. spread at Hartford since 2005. But limited QB
Lorenzen (4 ints., no TDP in first 2 games) having hard time balancing Husky
offense. Although UVa counterpart Lalich struggling as well, Cavaliers possess
very veteran LBs and enough rushing to take this one the distance.
(07-VA. 17-Conn. 16...C.17-16 V.44/148 C.33/78 V.15/25/2/184 C.17/33/0/176 V.1 C.2)
(07-VIRGINIA -3 17-16...SR: Virginia 1-0)


*SOUTHERN CAL 31- Ohio State 17?Although Jim Tressel is likely to keep
RB Beanie Wells? injury status as well-guarded a secret as John McCain did his
Sarah Palin VP nomination, we?re not sure how much difference it will
eventually make for OSU. After all, SC athletically similar to the SEC powers
that have blasted Buckeyes in past two BCS title games, and word is that Pete
Carroll positively giddy about Troy?s restructured OL and emerging WR corps
that made life so easy for QB Sanchez (3 TDP) in one-sided opener at Virginia.
OSU?s chances might be better in possible January bowl meeting (maybe a
rematch in BCS title game?) with a healthy Beanie and with frosh QB Pryor?s
likely ascension to gamebreaker status by season?s end. But for now, slowish
QB Boeckman and the very green Pryor likely overmatched by Trojan defensive
quicks. TV?ABC (DNP...SR: Southern Cal 11-9-1)



*Arizona 34 - NEW MEXICO 17?Hey, if Joe Lieberman can jump the
Senate aisle and support ?the maverick,? why can?t Arizona football make a
change, too? Wildcats no longer appear an unreliable chalk proposition after
pair of blowout wins, and revenge motive strong for QB Tuitama & UA spread
offense that wasted 446-yard passing effort in LY?s upset loss vs. UNM. Lobo
?O? still seeking traction, as rebuilt OL and new WR corps making life difficult in
early going for QB Porterie.
(07-N. Mex. 29-ARIZ. 27...A.25-24 N.39/94 A.21/38 A.30/53/1/446 N.29/42/1/327 N.1 A.2)
(07-New Mexico +9' 29-27...SR: Arizona 43-19-3)




*BOISE STATE 48 - Bowling Green 23?Though BSU has major lookahead
at Oregon next week, that won?t dissuade us from supporting rested, BCS-bowl
seeking Broncos, who?ve been 72% play on the ?blue carpet? over the last
decade. BSU?s frosh phenom, southpaw QB K. Moore (HC Peterson calls him
the best frosh QB he?s seen at BSU since 2001!), RB I. Johnson (yes, he?s still
around!), and a deep, speedy WR corps should go wild vs. a wound-licking BG
defense that yielded 42 points vs. Minnesota at home last week.
(05-BOISE STATE -7' 48-20...SR: Boise State 1-0)



*Utah 45 - UTAH STATE 14?Not much of a rivalry lately (Utah has easily
covered last 4 trips to Logan), so don?t mind laying somewhat inflated price
following Utah State?s 66-24 debacle at Oregon. Utes multi-skilled QB B.
Johnson (305 YP vs. Michigan; 80 YR vs. UNLV) will further demoralize sievelike
Aggie defense, tired from chasing (but not tackling) Duck RBs (408 YR in
53 tries). USU 1-5 as DD home dog since ?03.
(07-UTAH 34-Utah St. 18...U.16-15 U.36/144 S.46/136 U.18/29/2/181 S.17/24/0/139 U.0 S.1)
(07-UTAH -21' 34-18 06-Utah -20 48-0 05-UTAH -24' 31-7...SR: Utah 75-28-4)



*SAN JOSE STATE 28 - San Diego State 16?Tempted to ?buy? on SDSU
and hot RS frosh QB Lindley after near-miss at Notre Dame, but such teases
have been commonplace for Chuck Long?s Aztecs. Besides, we?re not sure
Irish are any better than SJSU, which rediscovered its infantry (137 YR) at
Nebraska and had Huskers on ropes until late KO of Cal transfer QB Reed,
who?s expected to be ready. Dick Tomey?s Spartans have provided good value
at home (9-1 vs. line last 10).
(06-SJS +2' 31-10 05-SDS -14 52-21...SR: San Jose State 17-15-2)



*ARIZONA STATE 47 - Unlv 17?With Georgia showdown on deck, Dennis
Erickson could be excused for keeping ASU under wraps. That, however,
wouldn?t be in character either for him or Sun Devils, who have covered 10 of last
11 laying DDs at Tempe. ASU attack and QB Carpenter (733 YP first two)
looked in midseason form last week vs. Stanford, and UNLV?s 2nd-half collapse
at Utah (never mind backdoor cover) reminiscent of previous Reb road
meltdowns under Mike Sanford. (FIRST MEETING)




ADDED GAMES
MICHIGAN STATE 42 - Florida Atlantic 20?After struggling against Cal,
MSU RB Javon Ringer made E. Michigan pay with 5 rush TDs last week. Fla.
Atlantic has had major problems against high-level foes, dropping 11 of last 12
spread decisions when getting double-digits out of Sun Belt, yielding 52 pts. to
Texas, 59 to Florida, 45 to Kentucky, 35 to South Florida and 42 to Oklahoma
State in recent chances. Look for Ringer to rip and for Spartan QB Bobby Hoyer
to regain form facing FAU ?D? that yielded 34 pts. & 483 yds. to toothless UAB
offense. (FIRST MEETING)



ALABAMA 37 - Western Kentucky 14?Though Bama players might be
motivated by some booing during listless 20-6 win vs. Tulane (following
emotion-draining win vs. Clemson), still reluctant to lay heavy lumber with Tide
squad that?s been a steady money-burner as chalk (see Looking for an Angle).
WKU?s athletic 6-4 soph QB Black (266 total yds. in opener) & RB Hayden (1237
YR last 1+Ys) able to make enough plays to stay within roomy number.
(FIRST MEETING)



*ARKANSAS STATE 28 - Southern Miss 24?Scouts impressed by focus
shown by blossoming ASU under respected HC Steve Roberts, as Red Wolves
followed upset win at A&M in opener with 83-point outburst vs. Texas Southern.
USM still assimilating new mentor Fedora?s offense, so side with happenin?
host?s resourceful jr. QB Leonard & tough-to-tackle jr. RB Arnold (1675 YR on
6.7 ypc in last 17 games).
(07-S. MISS 16-Ark. St. 10...19-19 A.42/242 S.46/177 S.13/24/1/123 A.9/23/1/118 S.1 A.1)
(07-USM -14 16-10 05-Usm -16' 31-19 (New Orleans Bowl)...SR: Southern Miss 7-3)



*KENTUCKY 26 - Middle Tennessee State 17?SEC observers raving
about quick-footed Kentucky stop unit (Cats allowing a Tim Lincecum ERA-like
2.5 ppg thru first two games!), but there?s nothing too dynamic about o.c. Joker
Phillips? rebuilt Wildcat attack that?s still adjusting to new QB Hartline.
Meanwhile, jr. QB Craddock emerging as effective leader for MTSU, and Blue
Raider confidence soaring for another shot at a ?big boy? after dominating
Maryland last week.
(DNP...SR: Kentucky 1-0)



*ILLINOIS 48 - La.-Lafayette 16?Illinois? defense was laid open by E. Illinois
RB Bess (183 YR), and Lafayette has some weapons in QB Michael
Desormeaux (1141 YR LY) & RB Tyrell Fenroy (1021) to do similar damage.
However, leary of backing Ragin? Cajun defense that yielded 633 yds. at
Southern Miss and is now facing explosive Illini attack that?s scored 89 pts. in
first two games and is 4-1 last 5 laying double digits.
(FIRST MEETING)



*LSU 51 - North Texas 13?Bayou Bengals DNP vs. Troy last week after
Hurricane Gustav messed things up a bit in Baton Rouge, so this game
becomes a key tuneup for LSU?s young QBs before next week?s visit to
defensively-staunch Auburn. Tulsa led North Texas 42-10 at the half last week,
at Denton. Main question in this one is when HC Miles will ease up with his
starters before imminent SEC West opener.
(05-LSU -44 56-3...SR: LSU 3-0)




WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

*LOUISVILLE vs. Kansas State?Check out our website on Tuesday,
September 16 at Sports Handicappers - Football Picks - Handicapping Picks - Basketball Betting for our analysis of this game.
TV?ESPN2
(06-Louisville -14 24-6...SR: Louisville 1-0)

 

[dmmosca632]

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA!!!...featuring the TECHNICAL REPORT

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
AUBURN
Revenge is often a dish best served cold, which Auburn plans
to do Saturday when it invades Starkville to face host Mississippi
State. Last season, the Tigers were stunned at home by Sly Croom's
Bulldogs, 19-14, qualifying the return match as featured Painful
Memory and Power Revenge recommendations for the Plainsmen. Auburn
has covered 4 of its last 6 in revenge spots for HC Tommy
Tuberville, whose presence on the sidelines also makes this a Coach
& Pointspread play for the Tigers. Tuberville's Tigers have fared
well on the road lately, covering 8 of their last 12, and have won
and covered big their last 3 as a series visitor at Starkville (all
wins by 28 or more). And home cooking hasn't worked too well
lately for MSU, which is only 3-12 vs. the number its last 15 as
host.
GEORGIA TECH
It's no secret that Georgia Tech HC Paul Johnson knows what
he's doing. Johnson routinely exceeded expectations durng a
successful 6-year stnt at Navy, and looks to be carrying that same
success with him to his new gig in Atlanta. Johnson's Midshipmen
were 16-6-1 vs. the line the last 5 years as an underdog, and
Johnson picked up the trend without a hitch in his first dog chance
last Saturday with the Yellow Jackets, not only covering the
number, but winning outright at Boston College. Johnson looks to
do more of the same this week at Virginia Tech, and his presence is
a major reason GT is a featured play in both the College Coach as
Underdog and Power Underdog systems this week. The Jackets are
also a recommended Painful Memory play vs. the Hokies.
SAN JOSE STATE
Every so often, a few unlikely "pointspread nuggets" can be
uncovered in unsuspecting places. Take San Jose State, for
example. Usually flying well under the national radar, the
Spartans have nonetheless developed a nice pointspread trend at
home for veteran HC Dick Tomey. And those angles are worth noting
when San Jose plays host Saturday night to winless San Diego State.
Simply, the Spartans have developed a solid home field edge,
covering 9 of their last 10 at Spartan Stadium. And they have
usually taken care of business when expected under Tomey, covering
6 of their last 7 as chalk.
ARIZONA STATE
Until further notice, we see no reason to jump off Arizona
State, especially when the Sun Devils are laying points at Tempe,
which they'll be doing again Saturday night against UNLV. Chopping
some heavy lumber is no concern, either, considering how ASU has
covered 6 of its last 7 laying double digits since HC Dennis
Erickson arrived last season, and 10 of its last 11 in that heavy
favorite role at home since 2005. And we're not afraid to buck the
Rebels, who have covered just 4 of their last 18 on the road under
HC Mike Sanford.
HOUSTON
Kudos to Baltimore for its opening week win over Cincinnati
...but let's see the Ravens do it again. Especially on the road,
where Baltimore failed to cover all 8 of its games last season and
must deal with again this week when traveling to Reliant Stadium
for a game vs. an angry Houston side. The Texans have paid off
like a loose slot machine at home for HC Gary Kubiak, covering
their last 4 and 8 of their last 10 as host.


EXTRA POINTS
LOOK OUT BELOW!
by Bruce Marshall, TGS EXTRA!!! Editor
As usual, a lot of attention is being paid to teams at the top
of the polls. But shrewd handicappers have long known that
wagering bargains can be found at the opposite end of the college
gridiron spectrum. Specifically, teams on the slide can provide
outstanding "go against" opportunities. The key, as always, is
identifying squads in the early stages of such streaks, which is
one reason we have begun our weekly "pointspread streaks" list in
the Systems Spotlight panel, featured in this week's TGS EXTRA!
Although it's early in the campaign, and no team can be on more
than a 1 or 2-game pointspread streak after last weekend's college
slate, knowledge of teams starting quickly, or breaking slowly, vs.
the line can be an important handicapping component, for within
those ranks are a handful of teams in the initial stages of some
extended runs (good and bad) vs. the line.
Following is a quick look at teams that appear in trouble, and
good candidates for some "go against" recommendations in the coming
weeks.
Washington State...Some longtime northwest observers are
frankly a bit horrified at what they have seen thus far from the
Cougs, who have been left at the gate for the first two games of
new HC Paul Wulff's regime. The trashing of Wazzu's long-enduring
offensive playbook (which was essentially the same from the time
Wulff played for the Cougs under Dennis Erickson all the way until
last season) in favor of a new no-huddle attack has been nothing
short of disastrous in the early going, as new QB Gary Rogers (a
5th-year senior) has looked completely lost in the process, missing
a host of open receivers and raising the possibility Wulff is about
to make an early switch to either Kansas State transfer Kevin
Lopina or RS frosh Marshall Lobbestael at the position. Meanwhile,
Wazzu's newly-aligned 4-3 defense has been torched by (admittedly
potent) Oklahoma State and Cal in the first two weeks, appearing
out of position much of the time while allowing a slew of big plays
and a whopping 53 ppg. By the way, that 66-3 loss vs. the Golden
Bears set a record as Wazzu's worst-ever defeat, eclipsing a 62-3
shellacking Jackie Sherrill's lone Coug team absorbed vs. UCLA in
1976.
Wyoming...Here's another new offense that is struggling to
find traction in the early going. Under-fire Wyo HC Joe Glenn
enlisted veteran o.c. Bob Cole to install a version of Wake
Forest's well-conceived offense in Laramie, but early returns are
not positive, especially after last week's ugly 23-3 home loss vs.
Air Force. New QB Dax Crum sure isn't looking too comfy at the
controls, hitting on only 7 of 19 passes against the Falcons and
pulled late in the game in favor of former starter Karsten Sween,
who didn't fare much better. The Pokes also didn't help their
cause by losing 4 fumbles in that sloppy display against the Force.
Special teams woes that have also proven costly in the first two
games. Add it up, and the war drums are beating at Dick Cheney's
alma mater, as Glenn's chances of surviving past this season begin
to dip.
Syracuse...The watch is on at the Carrier Dome, where it is
beginning to look less and less likely that HC Greg Robinson will
survive the campaign, much less September. Resignation chatter is
now rife on blogs in Orange country after Akron rolled into the
dome last weekend and spanked Syracuse, 42-28, There was a silver
lining of sort for Syracuse in the defeat, that being the
performance of new starting QB Cameron Dantley, who looked good in
his starting debut in place of Andrew Robinson. But the defense
(supposedly the specialty of Robinson, the team's co-d.c.) was
abysmal, the Zips administering a beatdown to the tune of 478 total
yards while catching the Orange flat-footed a number of times with
well-disguised draw plays. There's already talk in Orange country
that a lopsided home loss this week vs. Penn State could be the
final straw for Robinson. And, in a peripheral matter, Robinson's
performance at Syracuse (now 7-30 SU) has been so abysmal that the
man who hired him, AD Daryl Gross, is supposedly in hot water
himself. Stay tuned.
Colorado State...How far have the Rams fallen? We know they
slipped all of the way to 3-9 last season, a campaign that cost
long-serving HC Sonny Lubick his job. Sonny, however, apparently
didn't leave much in the cupboard for successor Steve Fairchild, as
CSU needed a late rally last weekend to prevail against
lower-division Sacramento State in what was almost the
most-humiliating defeat in CSU's modern football history. Although
the Rams have two accomplished RBs in Gartrell Johnson & Kyle Bell,
the OL has looked overmatched, and new QB Billy Farris continues to
seek traction. Moreover, Mountain West observers are stunned at
the overall talent level left behind by Lubick, which some are
beginning to say is currently the worst in the MWC (ouch!).
Other potential early "go-against" teams: Arkansas, Army,
Maryland, Notre Dame, UTEP, West Virginia.

NFL TICKER
WEEK ONE REVIEW
by Bruce Marshall, TGS EXTRA!!! Editor
Well, it didn't take long for the first fantasy football
bombshell of the 2008 season to drop.
Tom Brady. Out for the year.
That's the preliminary diagnosis on the New England QB, who
didn't take a snap due to foot injury concerns in the preseason,
then suffered a torn ACL while getting hit in the pocket in
Sunday's opener vs. the Chiefs. Suddenly, many fantasy football
leagues have bene turned inside-out, with the likely top choice in
many drafts having bit the dust before the first week was
completed.
What does it mean, fantasy-wise, for the Patriots? Meet Matt
Cassel, the new sheriff in town (for the moment, at least) and QB
for the Patriots, who did just enough in relief to help New England
to a 17-10 win. But don't expect Brady-like numbers from Cassel,
and don't expect '07-like fantasy numbers from wideouts such as
Randy Moss or Wes Welker, either. We'd also keep a close eye on HC
Bill Belichick, who might soon make a move for another QB (Chris
Simms reportedly on the radar). Which would be understandable, as
Cassel has only appeared in limited garbage-time work in the past,
and didn't even lead the Pat offense on a TD drive in the
preseason. Possible fantasy beneficiaries could be RBs Sammy
Morris and Laurence Maroney, who shared carries vs. the Chiefs and
might be called upon to carry a heavy workload in the coming weeks.
There were some other fantasy developments worth noting in
Week One, and we now take a quick trip around the league for those
highlights.
Atlanta...It didn't take newly-acquired RB Michael Turner long
to make an impression in his first start, All the ex-Charger did
was blast for 220 YR (one of those a 66-yard dash) and 2 TDs in the
Falcons' impressive 34-21 win over Detroit. New HC Mike Smith kept
the game plan rather conservative for rookie QB Matt Ryan, who
passed only 13 times, but did complete one of those for a 62-yard
score in the first quarter to Michael Jenkins. Baltimore...No one
was expecting too much from Delaware rookie QB Joe Flacco in his
first start, but he didn't hurt the Ravens against Cincy, not
throwing a pick in 29 mostly-safe passing attempts. And he indeed
helped Baltimore with his legs in HC John Harbaugh's first
regular-season game, scrambling for a 38-yard score in Baltimore's
17-10 win. RB Willis McGahee was held out of the game with knee
concerns, with ex-Alabama RB Le'Ron McClain and Rutgers rookie Ray
Rice sharing the carries vs. Cincy.
Carolina...The Panthers' new 1-2 RB punch of DeAngelo Williams
and Oregon rookie Jonathan Stewart made a nice debut in the opener
at San Diego, combining for a workmanlike 139 YR in Carolina's
exciting 26-24 win. The Panthers won the game on the final play
when QB Jake Delhomme, looking fine in his first regular-season
game back from Tommy John surgery, tossed a 14-yard TD pass to Dante
Rosario on the game's final play. Jake passed for 247 yards on the
day. New York Jets...It hasn't taken Brett Favre too long to fit
in with the Jets, tossing 2 TD passes in his first regualr-season
start wearing a different shade of green, as the Jets wion their
opener at Miami, 20-14. RB Thomas Jones was also in top form vs.
the Dolphins, rushing for 101 yards in the win.
Philadelphia...Donovan McNabb is back and so apparently is the
deep ball in Philly! All McNabb did was pass for 361 yards in the
Birds' 38-3 romp past the Rams on opening day, with three different
Philly receivers (Hank Baskett, Greg Lewis, and Cal rookie DeSean
Jackson) each cracking the 100-yard barrier, the first time that
was done by the Eagles since their 1960 championship year when
Timmy Brown, Pete Retzlaff, and Tommy McDonald all turned the trick
in a 38-28 win over the Redskins on December 18. What's
interesting is that the Eagles' top two wideouts, Reggie Brown and
Kevin Curtis, both missed the game due to injury. Pittsburgh...
Willie Parker is apparently back from a broken leg, at least based
upon his opening-week performance against Houston (138 YR and 3
Tds) in the Steelers' 38-17 romp. Illinois rookie RB Rashard
Mendenhall, expectred to get the bulk of the short-yardage carries
(and cracks at the goal line from close range), indeed carried 10
times, but didn't record a TD against the Texans.

 

[dmmosca632]

cont..
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER
Featuring the "Tech Edge"
COLLEGE
NORTH CAROLINA at RUTGERS (Thursday, September 11)...Butch 5-3 as
dog LY, while Schiano has cooled abit vs. the number now just 2-4
last 65 as home chalk and 6-7 vs. line overall since '07. Tech
edge-slight to UNC, absed on team trends.
KANSAS at SOUTH FLORIDA (Friday, September 12)...Mangino covered
all 4 chances as true visitor LY, and is 7-2 vs. line on road since
'06. Magino also 15-3 vs. line his last 18 onboard. Tech
edge-slight to KU, based on team trends.
NAVY at DUKE.Mids have beaten Duke SU last 4 seasons, though didn't
cover LY's wild 46-43 win at Annapolis. Mids 17-7 vs. line their
last 24 as visitor. Tech edge-slight to Navy, based on series
trends.
RICE at VANDERBILT.Dores recovered somewhat last year as chalk,
covering 2 of 3 chances, although Vandy still just 5-10 as chalk
since '02. Dores no covers 9 of last 10 hosting non-SEC
opposition! Owls 15-6 as dog since '06 (6-4 under Bailiff), 9-4 as
road dog since '06 (4-3 for Bailiff). Tech edge-Rice, based on
team trends.
AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI STATE.Big revenge spot for Tuberville after
losing to Sly 19-14 LY. Tigers had won and covered previous 5
meetings. Sly just 1-4 vs. line as host LY and 3-12 previous 15
vs. spread at Starkville. Tuberville has won and covered last 3
trips to MSU with all wins by 28 or more. Tigers 8-4 vs. line as
visitor since '05, and Tuberville has covered 4 of last 6 in
revenge. Tech edge-Auburn, based on team and series trends.
BALL STATE at AKRON.Ball State 5-2 vs. line away LY, 10-3 since
'06, 3-1 as road chalk since '06, 8-3 as overall chalk that span.
Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on team trends.
TOLEDO at EASTERN MICHIGAN.Home team has won and covered the last
3 meetings. Amstutz no covers last 6 as visitor, 3-15 last 18 in
role. Tech edge-EMU, based on Amstutz negatives.
NEVADA at MISSOURI.Mizzou on 18-8-1 spread run last 27 on board,
though Tigers only covered 1 of 3 laying DDs since '06. Tigers
have also covered their last 7 vs. non-Big XII opposition. Tech
edge-slight to Mizzou, based on team trends.
SMU at TEXAS TECH .TT has won and covered big the last 2 years vs.
pre-June SMU. Leach 15-7 laying DDs since '03. Red Raiders 5-2
last 7 laying 20 or more. Tech edge-TT, based on series trends.
NEW MEXICO STATE at NEBRASKA.Mumme 1-5 vs. line away LY and 5-12 in
role since taking over NMSU in '05. Ags just 3-8 as DD road dog
under Mumme. Tech edge-Nebraska, based on NMSU negatives.
UCLA at BYU.Rematch from pair of games LY both covered by UCLA
(split SU). Bruins on 11-0 run as underdog (1-0 for Neuheisel) and
now 19-9 last 28 on board. Cougs, however, 8-3 vs. line as home
since '06 (all as chalk). Tech edge-UCLA, based on recent dog
mark.
OREGON at PURDUE.Bellotti 11-4 vs. line since last season. Ducks
also 8-1 vs. line as non-conference visitor since '99. Tiller was
3-3 vs. line at Ross-Ade LY but only 6-12 against points as host
since '05. Purdue only 1-5 vs. line in non-conference games since
'05. Tech edge-Oregon, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS at TEXAS.Houston Nutt covered all 3 vs. Mack Brown in last
decade, but Nutt has moved to ole miss and Arkansas struggling for
Petrino. Mack has won and covered first two as 20+ chalk TY. Tech
edge-slight to Texas, based on recent trends.
GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA.Revenge for Richt after early loss LY
between hedges. Bulldogs have won last 3 trips to Columbia, and
road team has covered last 3 in series. UGa 11-4-1 vs. line last
16 on board. Spurrier only 3-6 as home dog since taking over SC in
'05. Richt also 7-3 vs. line last 10 in revenge. Tech
edge-Georgia, based on team and recent series trends.
AIR FORCE at HOUSTON.UH just 1-4 as home chalk for Briles LY.
Calhoun 9-3 vs. line at AFA since LY. Tech edge-AFA, based on team
trends.
HAWAII at OREGON STATE.UH now just 5-10 vs. spread last 15 on
board, and Leahey might be starting to fade again on mainland,
dropping last 4 vs. spread away from home. Riley has been pretty
good home chalk lately, with 6-2 mark in role since '06. Tech
edge-OSU, based on team trends.
WISCONSIN at FRESNO STATE.Note Pat Hill only 3-9 vs. line last 12
at Dog House although much of that damage done in poor '06.
Badgers no covers all 6 away from home LY and are just 1-4-1 as
visiting dog since '05. Tech edge-slight to Fresno, based on
recent Wisconsin road woes.
PENN STATE at SYRACUSE.Cuse just 3-11 last 14 on board, also 0-6 as
home dog LY and just 3-8 in role under Robinson. Shades only 1-4
as road chalk LY, however, but he is 11-5 laying DDs overall since
'05. Tech edge-Shades, based on team trends.
MICHIGAN at NOTRE DAME.Revenge for Weis (which a lot of games will
be this year) after 38-0 loss at Big House LY. If ND a dog, note
Weis only 1-3 as home dog LY, and overall as host just 4-12 last 16
in role. Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on team trends.
IOWA STATE at IOWA.Revenge for Iowa after bitter 15-13 loss at Ames
LY. But note ISU has covered the last 4 and 9 of last 10 in
series. Cyclones 6-3 as dog for Chizik LY. Tech edge-ISU, based
on team and series trends.
GEORGIA TECH at VIRGINIA TECH.Chan was 6-2-1 vs. line as dog at GT
the last 2 years, and Paul Johnson was 16-6-1 as dog the last 5
seasons at Navy. Beamer only 2-4 as home chalk LY (1-3 laying DDs
as host in '07). Tech edge-GT, based on team trends.
NC STATE at CLEMSON.O'Brien having trouble gaining traction at NCS,
only 5-7 vs. line since LY. Clemson has covered 4 of last 5 in
series, though Tommy B just 6-12 vs. spread last 18 on board since
late '06. Tech edge-slight to Clemson, based on series trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at IDAHO.Idaho 1-9 vs. spread last 10 on board.
Akey 0-3 as home dog LY. WMU on a bit of a slide, too, just 3-9-1
last 13 on board, and Broncos just 1-4 as visiting chalk since '05.
Tech edge-slight to WMU, based on recent Idaho negatives.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at OHIO. Chips only 2-5-1 vs. line as visitor
since LY but they are 15-5-1 as chalk since '05. Solich, however,
4-1 vs. line at Athens LY and 10-4 vs. number as host since taking
over Bobcats in '05, he's 4-2 as home dog that span. Tech
edge-slight to Ohio, based on team trends.
CAL at MARYLAND.Ralph only 5-12 vs. line last 17 on board and 9-18
last 27 overall. Ralph also just 5-11 vs. line his last 16 as host
and no covers last 6 hosting non-ACC teams. Tech edge-Cal, based
on Ralph negatives.
WASHINGTON STATE at BAYLOR.Bears have slipped to 8-19 vs. line last
27 on board and just 4-12 vs. number last 16 at Waco. Tech
edge-slight to WSU, based on team trends.
STANFORD at TCU.Frogs are solid 12-4 vs. line last 16 at Fort
Worth, 10-4 last 14 as home chalk (5-2 last 7 laying DDs at home).
Tech edge-TCU, based on team trends.
TEMPLE at BUFFALO.Buffalo abused Owls 42-7 LY and has won last two
years against Temple. Bulls have also covered 5 of last 7 as MAC
host. Turner Gill now 22-12-1 vs. line last 35 on board. Tech
edge-slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.
UAB at TENNESSEE.UT 9-3-1 vs. line after last 13 SU losses. UT
also covering games at home lately, 5-1-1 LY and 9-4-1 since '06.
Vols have also covered last 4 hosting non-SEC teams. UAB 11-20-1
vs. line last 32 on board. Tech edge-UT, based on team trends.
EAST CAROLINA at TULANE.Skip 27-11 vs. line at ECU, 16-5 vs. line
away from Greenville. Skip also 9-5 as chalk since '05 and 2-0 as
DD chalk that span. Bob Toledo non-descript 5-6 vs. line LY, but
Tulane 11-21-1 vs. line overall since '05. Tech edge-Skip, based
on recent trends.
MEMPHIS at MARSHALL.Note that home team has won and covered the
last three seasons. Tommy West 5-1 vs. line last 6 as visitor.
Herd has been a bit better at home than on road lately (home team
21-9-1 vs. line in Herd games since '05). Tech edge-slight to
Marshall, based on team and series trends.
VIRGINIA at UCONN.Groh, historically subpar vs. line on road at Uva
(9-23 last 32 vs. spread as visitor). Cavs no covers last 5 as
non-conference visitor. Edsall 13-4 vs. line at Rentsch since '05,
9-3 as chalk since '05, 4-1 as DD chalk that span. Tech edge-UConn,
based on team trends.
OKLAHOMA at WASHINGTON.Stoops just 2-6 vs. line last 8 as chalk
away from Norman, but OU is 11-6-1 as DD chalk since '06. Ty 6-3
as home dog since '06 (though just 6-8 vs. line at Seattle that
span). Tech edge-UW, based on team trends.
OHIO STATE at SOUTHERN CAL.Tressel 4-1 vs. line as visitor LY, 11-3
vs. line as visitor since '05. He's 1-0 as visiting dog that span
in rare dog role. Bucks 9-4 vs. line last 13 with single-digit
spreads, but Pete 7-1 last 8 in such roles. Pete just 2-4 as home
chalk LY but has covered 13 of last 20 on board since mid '06.
Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.
ARIZONA at NEW MEXICO.Revenge for Stoops after 29-27 home loss to
Rocky LY. Rocky no covers last 3 as home dog and just 5-10 vs.
line last 15 on board, also just 2-5 last 7 as dog. Stoops has now
covered last 6 on board since late LY. Stoops also 8-4 vs. line
last 12 in revenge spots. Tech edge-slight to UA, based on recent
trends.
BOWLING GREEN at BOISE STATE.Boise has continued blue carpet magic
the past few years, now 15-5 vs. line last 20 as host, 12-4 last 16
laying DDs at home. Tech edge-Boise, based on team trends.
UTAH at UTAH STATE.Road team 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 meetings, and
Utes have won and covered handily last 4 trips to Logan. Utah 6-1
vs. line laying DDs since '06. more. Utags only 2-8 vs. line at
home since '06. Tech edge-Utah, based on team and series trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE.Dick Tomey 6-1 as chalk since
'06, and Spartans also 9-1 vs. spread as host since '06 as well.
Tech edge-San Jose State, based on team trends.
UNLV at ARIZONA STATE.Rebs just 4-14 vs. line last 18 as visitor
under Sanford. Erickson 6-1 as DD chalk since LY amd ASU 12-2 in
role since '05 (10-1 as Tempe DD chalk that span). Tech edge-ASU,
based on team trends.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MICHIGAN STATE.Prior to covering 3 of 5 outside
of Belt LY, Owls had dropped previous 7 vs. spread outside of
conference. Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on team trends.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at ALABAMA.Nick now 2-7 as chalk at Bama, and
dating back to Mike Shula days, Tide 6-18 as chalk since '05, 2-15
as home chalk that span (2-12 laying DDs at home). Tech edge-WKU,
based on team trends.
SOUTHERN MISS at ARKANSAS STATE.Red Wolves only 2-5 vs. line last
7 as host compared to 8-4 road dog mark that span. Fedora trying
to follow up Bower recent success as road chalk (USM 4-0 in role
LY, 6-1 since '06). Tech edge-slight to USM, based on team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at KENTUCKY.Mixed results for Rich Brooks laying
big numbers lately (2-2 as DD chalk since '06), although he is
11-6-1 vs. line at Lexington since '05. Tech edge-slight to UK,
based on team trends.
LOUISIANA at ILLINOIS.Ragin' Cajuns only 3-7 as dog since LY and
4-10 vs. line in role since '06 (4-4 as DD road dog that span,
however). Tech edge-slight to Illinois, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at LSU.UNT 1-18 vs. line last 19 visiting non-Belt
opposition! Les Miles 5-2-1 vs. line laying 30 or more with LSU
since '05. Tech edge-LSU, based on team trends.
NFL
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY."Unders" in five of last 6 in series.
Oakland only 6-35 SU its last 41 away from home, however. Chiefs
only 1-6-1 vs. line as host LY. Tech edge-slight to "under," based
on "totals" trends.
TENNESSEE at CINCINNATI.Titans "under" 12-6 since LY after being an
"over" team the previous few years. Tech edge-slight to "under,"
based on "totals" trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at MINNESOTA.Vikes are "over" 7 of last 9 at home.
Colts have won and covered last 5 and 8 of last 9 against NFC
opposition. Tech edge-slight to Colts and "over," based on team
trends.
NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON.Saints "over" 14-6 last 20 on board since
late '06. If Saints favored, note 4-1 road chalk mark since '06
(3-1 LY). Skins only 12-18-4 vs. line last 34 on board (7-9-2)
last 18. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Saints, based on "totals"
and team trends.
GREEN BAY at DETROIT. Pack has won and covered last 4 in series,
and McCarthy Packers (with Favre) were 11-4-1 vs. line away the
past two seasons. Pack was also 7-1 "over" away LY and is "over"
11-4-1 away since '06. Lions "over" 7-3 last 10 at Ford Field.
Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team
trends.
CHICAGO at CAROLINA.Home chalk historically tricky for Panthers,
just 11-21 in role since '03 (1-3 in injury-plagued '07, 7-10 since
'05). Panthers also "under" 6-2 as host LY, "under" 18-9 last 27
at Charlotte. Tech edge-slight to "under," based on "totals"
trends.
NY GIANTS at ST. LOUIS.Giants looking for 12th straight win away
from home! Down stretch LY, NY won last 11 away from Meadowlands
(only non-cover was rainy London game vs. Miami). Giants also
"under" 9-3 last 12 away from home. Rams 3-10 last 13 as dog and
2-6 vs. line last 8 as host. Tech edge-Giants, based on team
trends.
BUFFALO at JACKSONVILLE.Bills "under" 6-2 away LY, "under" 11-5
last 16 as visitor. Jags 12-5 vs. spread last 17 at Alltel. Tech
edge-Jags and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY.Atlanta is "under" 12-4 on road since '06,
16-5 "under" last 21 away. Tech edge-"Under," based on team
trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE.Last four in series "under." Seattle has
won and covered 3 of last 4 at home vs. SF and is 19-8-1 vs. line
at Qwest Field since '05. SF 2-6 vs. line away LY. Tech
edge-Seahawks and slight to "under," based on team and series
"totals" trends.
MIAMI at ARIZONA.Cards "over" 31-17-1 since '05. Tech edge-slight
to "over," based on Cards' "totals" trends.
NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS.NE 8-2-1 vs. line last 11 in series,
although teams have split last 4 spread decisions. Patriots,
however, have won and covered last 5 as series visitor. Four of
last five meetings at Meadowlands also "over." Tech edge-"Over,"
based on "totals" trends.
BALTIMORE at HOUSTON.Kubiak 6-2 vs. line at home LY (3-2 as chalk),
10-6 as host since '06. Texans also "over" 14-7-1 last 22 on board.
Ravens 0-8 vs. number on road LY. Tech edge-Texans and "over,"
based on team and "totals" trends.
SAN DIEGO at DENVER.Bolts have swept Broncos SU ea ch of the last
two seasons. Shanahan "over" 6-2 at home LY, 11-5 overall in '07,
and "over" 12-5 last 17 as host. Bolts "over" 8-2 away LY, 13-5
"over" on road since '06. Tech edge-"Over" and Bolts, based on
"totals" and recent series trends.
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND.Steelers have won SU last 9 in series,
7-1-1 vs. line in those games. Last six in series "over" as well.
Steel has won and covered last 5 at Cleveland. Tech edge-"Over"
and Steel, based on "totals" and series trends.
PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (Monday, September 15).Birds have won and
covered last 2 (as dog each time) and 3 of last 4 at Dallas. Andy
4-1 as dog LY, 8-2 in role since '06, and 19-8 last 27 as dog away
from home. Tech edge-Eagles, based on team and series trends.

SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Texas, AUBURN over Mississippi
State, BALL STATE over Akron, BYU over Ucla@, EAST CAROLINA over
Tulane, MICHIGAN over Notre Dame, MICHIGAN STATE over Florida
Atlantic, MISSOURI over Nevada@, OHIO STATE over Southern Cal@,
OREGON over Purdue@, TCU over Stanford.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-GEORGIA TECH over Virginia tech, NEW
MEXICO over Arizona, UCLA over Byu.
RIVALRY DOGS-IOWA STATE over Iowa@.
POWER UNDERDOGS-KANSAS over South Florida (Friday, September 12),
GEORGIA TECH over Virginia Tech, NEVADA ovewr Missouri@, NEW MEXICO
over Arizona, OHIO STATE over Southern Cal@, PURDUE over Oregon@,
UCLA over Byu, WISCONSIN over Fresno State@.
PAINFUL MEMORY-AUBURN over Mississippi State, GEORGIA TECH over
Virginia Tech, IOWA over Iowa State@.
POWER REVENGE-AUBURN over Mississippi State.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-BOISE STATE over Bowling Green, FRESNO STATE
over Wisconsin, SOUTHERN CAL over Ohio State@.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-WASHINGTON STATE* over Baylor.
"AFS" (Away from spread last two decisions): PLUS (+)...Cal
+25.50, Az 22.25, ECU 21.25, Vandy 20.25, Rice 18.00, Ohio 16.75,
Ore 13.50, Minn 12.75, Buff 12.25, USM 12.25, Temple 12.25, Ok. St
10.75; MINUS (-)...WSu -34.00, Wyo 17.00, Syr 13.50, Ore St 13.25,
Pitt 13.00, Kent St 11.50, A&M 10.25, Miami-O 10.00, New Mex 10.00.
POINTSPREAD STREAKS: Wins...2-Akron, Az, Buff, Cal, ECU, Ok St,
Ore, Rice, USM, Temp, Tex, Tulsa, Vandy; Losses...2-Kent St, Mem,
Mich, Ore St, Pitt, Syr, UAB, UTEP, WSU, WMU, Wyo.
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-BUFFALO over Jacksonville@, DENVER over San
Diego, GREEN BAY* over Detroit@, INDIANAPOLIS* over Minnesota,
TENNESSEE* over Cincinnati, PHILADELPHIA over Dallas@ (Monday,
September 15).
FAMILIARITY-KANSAS CITY# over Oakland, DETROIT# over Green Bay,
NY JETS over New England, DENVER over San Diego.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-SEATTLE over San Francisco, ST. LOUIS over
NY Giants.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo@, DALLAS over
Philadelphia@ (Monday, September 15).
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May
conflict with other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!!
recommendation, consult Technician's Corner and/or Tech Plays of
Week. Line moves after Sunday night can alter selections in certain
systems.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2008
POWER UNDERDOGS/PAINFUL MEMORY teams to be charted in 2008
include Alabama, Arizona State, Auburn, Boise State, Boston
College, BYU, Cal, Cincinnati, Clemson, East Carolina, Florida,
Florida State, Fresno State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Iowa,
Kansas, LSU, Michigan, Missouri, Navy, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio
State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers,
South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, Southern Miss,
Tennessee, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Tulsa, UCLA, Utah, Virginia,
Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
POWER REVENGE teams for 2008 include Auburn, Florida, Georgia,
LSU, Missouri, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, Southern Cal,
Tennessee, Texas, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES for 2008 include Army, Baylor, Duke, Eastern
Michigan, Florida International, Idaho, Kent State, Minnesota, New
Mexico State, North Texas, Rice, San Diego State, Stanford,
Syracuse, Temple, Tulane, UAB, UNLV, and Utah State.
COACH & POINTSPREAD coaches for 2008 include Bobby Petrino,
Arkansas; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Brady Hoke, Ball State; Bronco
Mendenhall, BYU; Brian Kelly, Cincinnati; Skip Holtz, East
Carolina; Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech; Mark Mangino, Kansas; Charlie
Weatherbie, Louisiana-Monroe; Rich Rodriguez, Michigan; Mark
Dantonio, Michigan State; Gary Pinkel, Missouri; Jim Tressel, Ohio
State; Mike Bellotti, Oregon; Jim Leavitt, South Florida; Gary
Patterson, TCU; and Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG coaches for 2008 include Mike Stoops,
Arizona; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Brian Kelly, Cincinnati; Tommy
Bowden, Clemson; Skip Holtz, East Carolina; Urban Meyer, Florida;
Bobby Bowden Florida State; Mark Richt, Georgia; Paul Johnson,
Georgia Tech; Ron Zook, Illinois; Charlie Weatherbie,
Louisiana-Monroe; Mark Dantonio, Michigan State; Rocky Long, New
Mexico; Tom O'Brien, NC State; Jim Leavitt, South Florida; Mike
Price, UTEP; Rick Neuheisel, UCLA; Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech; and
Jim Grobe, Wake Forest.
NFL 2008
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG coaches for 2008 include Dick Jauron,
Buffalo; John Fox, Carolina; Mike Shanahan, Denver; Mike McCarthy,
Green Bay; Tony Dungy, Indianapolis; Jack Del Rio, Jacksonviille;
Bill Belichick, New England; Sean Payton, New Orleans; Tom
Coughlin, NY Giants; Andy Reid, Philadelphia; and Jeff Fisher,
Tennessee.