NFC/AFC Championship Games

[Smitty]

Playoffs
Sides 6-1 +13.7
ML 2-3 +2.7
Totals 9-9 +6.1
Props 5-5 -2.5

Alright, I have some open bets that will influence my plays here. About 4 days before Garoppolo got hurt, I bet SF to win the NFC at +275. So, while I really like SF today, I will not be adding more on the Niners. And prior to the season, I bet an AFC West team to win the AFC at +140. (Honestly, I liked that bet because I thought the Chargers would be better. I completely forgot Staley was still the HC.:facepalm So, while I kinda like KC today, I'm not going to add more onto the side in that game.

A few (hopefully) quick notes on the games.

Interesting matchup in Philly, between the two teams with the weakest strength of schedule. For me, SF still passes the eye test. Even though they've played a weak schedule, they've been dominant with a rookie qb who was their 3rd string guy before the season. Look at Philly's schedule. I mean, seriously, take the time to go to ESPN.com and look as their schedule. Holy shit. The last time they beat a team that was not the NY Giants or Chicago Bears was 12/4. They struggled to beat the Colts. They struggled to beat the TEXANS. The Eagles ain't all that great.

The Eagles' starting FS is an undrafted rookie, Reed Blankenship. Anyone wanna bet that Shanahan goes after him?

Both teams can run the ball. SF has the 2nd-ranked run defense in the league. Philly? Their run defense is... 21st. Now, full disclosure, here comes my biggest issue with backing SF... Kyle Shanahan. Obviously. SF's advantage offensively coming into this game is the ground game. Both McCaffrey (calf) and Mitchell (groin) are hurt, which certainly doesn't help. McCaffrey isn't even on the injured list and Mitchell is questionable. That would be a big loss, as Mitchell averaged 6.2 yards/carry. Anyway, back to Shanahan.... that dumbass still has shown no signs that he's learned to stick with the ground game when it's working and they are trying to protect a lead. He blew the Super Bowl when he was the OC of the Falcons and he blew the NFC Championship Game last year. SF could be up 10 halfway through the 4th quarter today, and they'll go 3-and-out on 3 straight passes. Guaranteed.

Ok, the one weak spot in the SF defense that really concerns me. starting CB Charvarius Ward. He was a huge free agent signing for them coming into this season. He had 11 Passes Defended during the regular season. That's not bad. But 4 of them came in one game against the Carolina Panthers. Before I lose you by throwing out any more CB stats, I'll just say this.... he was repeatedly burned in the playoff game against Seattle by DK Metcalf. He was ok against Dallas but, you know, Dak Prescott. Not much pressure on your CBs. Today he'll be dealing with AJ Brown and, possibly, DaVonta Smith. Yikes.

Despite Ward and Shanahan, I still think SF is, by far, the better team. And I'd be betting on them if not for my open wager. Here's what I am betting in that game...

SF 1H (+1.5) 4 units. At least I'll cash this before Shanahan blows another lead.
Over (45.5) 2 units
1H Over (23, +100) 4 units

 

[Smitty]

Ordinarily, I'd like Cincinnati in this game. I bet them at KC in the playoffs last year, and earlier this year. Overall, they are the more complete team. But think about this... damn near everybody loved Buffalo last week. Suddenly, one good game against a very overrated Buffalo squad, and the whole world is jumping on the Bengals. I considered playing Cincy as a hedge against my open bet, but I'm gonna let it ride. I have a 2-pt fav at +140. Value!!

And, sure, I understand the arguments for Cincinnati. They won at KC with a shit offensive line last year. KC hasn't been all that great this year. Andy Reid still has NO idea how to manage the clock in the 4th quarter (ok, almost everyone has forgotten this. But he's still a clueless buffoon in regards to clock management.)

I don't really think Mahomes' ankle will allow him to scramble around like usual. Either it's not really a high ankle sprain, or he's going to be very limited today. High ankle sprains don't heal quickly. But that may actually work in his favor. I'm hoping the limited mobility means he's not going to run 15 yards BACKWARDS while trying to elude the pass rush.

All that said, that offensive line is going to doom the Bengals today. KC is 3rd in the league in sacks. I think they're going to put enough pressure on Burrow that he makes some mistakes.

All the talk about the qbs.... I think both teams will run the ball more than you'd expect, to keep the pass rush off balance.

Cincinnati TT under (23.5) 4 units
KC TT under (24.5) 4 units

Almost forgot one from the 1st game... Philly 2H TT under 11.5. SF's defense has been dominant in the 2nd half of games.

 

[Scrapman]

100% cover jinx recent 2 who got to S B and lost Seattle vs Patriots a pcem then Patriots -4.5 vs Eagles Brady on Cover they are not the more complete team you obviously missed the players on kc

 

[ejthree]

Ordinarily, I'd like Cincinnati in this game. I bet them at KC in the playoffs last year, and earlier this year. Overall, they are the more complete team. But think about this... damn near everybody loved Buffalo last week. Suddenly, one good game against a very overrated Buffalo squad, and the whole world is jumping on the Bengals. I considered playing Cincy as a hedge against my open bet, but I'm gonna let it ride. I have a 2-pt fav at +140. Value!!

And, sure, I understand the arguments for Cincinnati. They won at KC with a shit offensive line last year. KC hasn't been all that great this year. Andy Reid still has NO idea how to manage the clock in the 4th quarter (ok, almost everyone has forgotten this. But he's still a clueless buffoon in regards to clock management.)

I don't really think Mahomes' ankle will allow him to scramble around like usual. Either it's not really a high ankle sprain, or he's going to be very limited today. High ankle sprains don't heal quickly. But that may actually work in his favor. I'm hoping the limited mobility means he's not going to run 15 yards BACKWARDS while trying to elude the pass rush.

All that said, that offensive line is going to doom the Bengals today. KC is 3rd in the league in sacks. I think they're going to put enough pressure on Burrow that he makes some mistakes.

All the talk about the qbs.... I think both teams will run the ball more than you'd expect, to keep the pass rush off balance.

Cincinnati TT under (23.5) 4 units
KC TT under (24.5) 4 units

Almost forgot one from the 1st game... Philly 2H TT under 11.5. SF's defense has been dominant in the 2nd half of games.

Nice call Smitty on team totats...:toast:

 

[Smitty]

Thank you, EJ.

You know, the more I watch Mahomes, the more he reminds me of Favre. Just makes a lot of really dumb plays, but he almost always gets away with them.

Updated Playoffs Record
Sides 6-2 +19.3
ML 2-3 +2.7
Totals 13-10 +18.1
Props 5-5 -2.5

 

[rocky mountain]

Thank you, EJ.

You know, the more I watch Mahomes, the more he reminds me of Favre. Just makes a lot of really dumb plays, but he almost always gets away with them.

Updated Playoffs Record
Sides 6-2 +19.3
ML 2-3 +2.7
Totals 13-10 +18.1
Props 5-5 -2.5

He won't 2 weeks from now, and will feel his ankle a lot more as the Eagles will send the house at him.

 

[Smitty]

He won't 2 weeks from now, and will feel his ankle a lot more as the Eagles will send the house at him.

Ha. That would be a bad idea. If I recall correctly, Mahomes has very good #s against the blitz. The question really is... can they pressure him WITHOUT blitzing?

 

[rocky mountain]

Ha. That would be a bad idea. If I recall correctly, Mahomes has very good #s against the blitz. The question really is... can they pressure him WITHOUT blitzing?

Mahommes is excellent against the blitz. The Birds run a 3-3-5 mostly, but can get out the QB with a variety of ways often with 5 rushing and when they hit you they knock you on your ass. They're cover guys are good too. Kelce will present them problems .