ST. LOUIS -10 over Philadelphia 400/364
Basically, this is backing the matchup of Warner's blitz reading ability against a defense that relies havily on the blitz. If you look at the Giants, Packers and Buccaneers defenses, they really rely on their front four to bring heat without a lot of blitzing, and that is the best way to play St. Louis. Unless Philly changes their defensive philosiphy, which is doubtful, they will leave themselves open to some quick strike plays.
The other big matchup is St. Louis trying to stop McNabb. You have to like McNabb's chances more than last year against the Giants. Thrash finally gives him a legitimate wideout and Staley and Buckhalter are a huge upgrade in the backfield. The problem is that McNabb is not an extremely accurate passer. He has his moments, but overall it his ability to create yards on the ground and extra time in the pocket that makes him special, not his downfield accuracy. St. Louis has such quick linebackers that they should do a good job of stopping that intermediate passing game.
There is one more factor that I like about this game: line movement. This line has fallen precipitously, meaning the general public is on Philly strong. In the wild card round every game went with the public. Last weekend, Pittsburgh, St. Louis and New England were all public choices. It is always a standard NFL angle to play against line movement of at least two points and this fits that beautifully. I think the books will win back a lot of what they have lost this month today.
Basically, this is backing the matchup of Warner's blitz reading ability against a defense that relies havily on the blitz. If you look at the Giants, Packers and Buccaneers defenses, they really rely on their front four to bring heat without a lot of blitzing, and that is the best way to play St. Louis. Unless Philly changes their defensive philosiphy, which is doubtful, they will leave themselves open to some quick strike plays.
The other big matchup is St. Louis trying to stop McNabb. You have to like McNabb's chances more than last year against the Giants. Thrash finally gives him a legitimate wideout and Staley and Buckhalter are a huge upgrade in the backfield. The problem is that McNabb is not an extremely accurate passer. He has his moments, but overall it his ability to create yards on the ground and extra time in the pocket that makes him special, not his downfield accuracy. St. Louis has such quick linebackers that they should do a good job of stopping that intermediate passing game.
There is one more factor that I like about this game: line movement. This line has fallen precipitously, meaning the general public is on Philly strong. In the wild card round every game went with the public. Last weekend, Pittsburgh, St. Louis and New England were all public choices. It is always a standard NFL angle to play against line movement of at least two points and this fits that beautifully. I think the books will win back a lot of what they have lost this month today.
