NFL: 2006 rookie futures

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by Mark Rothstein
for BetUS.com



Don't give it to Bush yet



That?s my Bush.

Reggie Bush, the former USC one-man wrecking crew and reigning Heisman winner, is the runaway favorite at +200 to win the 2006 Sporting News NFL Rookie of the Year Award. Is it because he?s the only rookie the betting public can name outside of Rose Bowl quarterbacks Matt Leinart and Vince Young? Could be.

Bush was drafted second overall last April by the New Orleans Saints. It wasn?t exactly a surprise at the time that he fell to second ? news of the Houston Texans? decision to select defensive end Mario Williams (+1000) out of North Carolina State made headlines the Friday before the draft.

But that didn?t stop the naysayers from piling on the Texans for passing up the electrifying running back/wide receiver/kick returner. Houston?s rationale was that the club already had a backfield stud by the name of Domanick Davis, and there were some questions about character after Bush?s interviews.

It?s just as well for Bush that he fell to the Saints. It?ll cost him a little money for not being picked first, but Bush will be a lot closer to cracking the lineup ? eventually. The holdup comes in the form of RB Deuce McAllister. The two-time Pro Bowler missed most of last year with a torn ACL; McAllister is back in 2006 to join incoming QB Drew Brees to form what could be a deadly 1-2 punch for the Saints. However promising Bush may be, it?ll take him some time to unseat the incumbent McAllister as New Orleans? starting tailback (but not as long as ousting Davis, who is two years younger). That?s time a R.O.Y. futures bettor cannot afford.

Williams will likely start at right defensive end for the Texans and make an immediate impact, but he?s not playing the kind of marquee position that usually generates R.O.Y. awards. The last defensive lineman to score TSN honors was Tampa Bay?s Santana Dotson in 1992. Since then, the award has gone to seven RBs, two WRs, one lone QB (Pittsburgh?s Ben Roethlisberger in 2004), and three linebackers, including reigning ROY Shawne Merriman from San Diego. Tampa Bay RB Cadillac Williams likely would have bagged this trophy had he remained healthy all season.

With the emphasis on offensive players in mind, next on the futures list behind Bush are Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes and Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams at +550. Williams is the easy choice here between the two. Holmes will take a back seat to WR Hines Ward, while Williams will start the season behind DeShaun Foster on the depth chart. Foster is injury-prone; Williams should get plenty of carries in a supporting role, and is bound to take the starting job sooner rather than later. Playing for a Super Bowl contender like the Panthers should also help Williams in the publicity department.

Rookie sensations at quarterback are few and far between. Roethlisberger only got his chance in 2004 because Tommy Maddox was injured; it?ll take a similar fluke for Leinart (+1200), Young (+1500) or Jay Cutler (+2500) to cash in.

The best of the ?value? picks may be Indianapolis RB Joseph Addai at +900. With Edgerrin James moving on to Arizona, Addai is expected to see duty right away as a backfield complement to RB Dominic Rhodes. Addai will catch passes while Rhodes does the dirty work as a power runner. Eventually, Addai will have the job to himself ? a feature piece in what should be the most potent offense in the NFL. Sounds like ROY material.

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