NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !

[Cnotes53]

Monday’s 6-pack:
best records in one-run games:
28-12- Marlins
27-13- Brewers
24-12- Orioles
20-15- Braves
23-18- Phillies
30-25- Reds

Quote of the Day
“It’s your job to keep the score down, not mine.”
Bobby Bowden, the old coach at Florida State, when an opposing coach complained that Bowden’s Seminoles ran the score up on his team.

Monday’s quiz
What city hosts the Sugar Bowl every year?

Sunday’s quiz
In the classic TV show Magnum PI, Thomas Magnum grew up in Virginia.

Saturday’s quiz
Major League Baseball switched to divisional play in 1969; Atlanta Braves won the National League West that season—they were in the Western Division until 1994.

*************************************************

Monday’s Den: Happy Labor Day, everyone……..​

— I’m watching the HBO show on the 1980’s Laker teams— it is Winning Time, and this is the second season. Magic Johnson/Kareem- they had great teams, but they also had three head coaches in Magic Johnson’s first three seasons, before they struck gold by promoting Pat Riley to head coach.
Paul Westhead was the second of the three Laker coaches; he was the head coach when LA won the 1980 NBA title, but he was fired less than two years later. The last couple episodes dealt with all that. No one in the Laker front office seemed to know what to do at the time, but he and Magic Johnson couldn’t co-exist, and in the NBA, star players always win that battle.
Westhead is 84 now; he lives in Philadelphia. I’m wondering what he thinks of how he was shown in this series.
Four years after the Lakers fired him, Westhead was hired by Loyola Marymount, and he turned that program into a great national story in 1989-90, getting to the finals of the West Region in 1990, even after one of his best players collapsed/died on the court during a conference tournament game. That was an amazing team.
If Winning Time lasts long enough to get to 1990, I wonder if Westhead will get a mention for the great work he did at LMU.

— Why do big-time college football teams play I-AA opponents? It is stealing money from their fans, charging them to watch glorified scrimmages against inferior opponents:
Georgia 48, UT-Martin 7
Ole Miss 73, Mercer 7
Arkansas 56, Western Carolina 13
Maryland 38, Towson State 6
Oklahoma State 27, Central Arkansas 13
Cincinnati 66, Eastern Kentucky 13
Notre Dame 56, Tennessee State 3
Syracuse 65, Colgate 0
Pittsburgh 45, Wofford 7
How does this help? It helps the I-AA teams; they get big paychecks for getting their butts kicked, but not sure how much it helps the home side.

— Florida State 45, LSU 24
LSU led 17-14 at halftime.
Florida State scored the next 31 points.
Seminoles were 9-14 on third down, LSU 3-10.
More early returns from college football:

— Pac-12 teams are 8-2 against the spread. This is the first time every team in the Pac-12 won its season opener since 1932.

— Big X teams are 2-6 ATS, 2-5 as favorites; Houston’s first game as a Big X member was a 17-14 win over Texas-San Antonio— not impressive.

— Big 14 teams are 2-5 ATS as a home favorites.

— Terry Bradshaw turned 75 years old this week; if a guy could win four Super Bowls and still be underrated, this was Bradshaw. He parlayed his act as a dumb guy into a long, lucrative career on TV. No one plays as well as Bradshaw did if he was dumb.
Random trivia; Bradshaw played QB in college at Louisiana Tech; the QB at Louisiana Tech just before Bradshaw was Phil Robertson, the father on Duck Dynasty.

— Westgate SuperBook listed some prop bets for this year’s NFL:
Will the NFL record for passing yards by a QB be broken? No -550, Yes +400
Will the NFL record for passing TD’s by a QB be broken? No -1400, Yes +800
Will the NFL record for rushing yards be broken? No -1220, Yes +700
Will the NFL record for receiving yards be broken? No -650, Yes +450

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Cubs, SF/Az/Cin/Miami all tied
AL: Orioles, Twins, Mariners. Wild Cards- Rays, Astros, Rangers

— Under is 13-5 in games when Laz Diaz umpires behind the plate.

— Mookie Betts hit .455 in August, with 51 hits, 11 of them home runs. He’s the 3rd player since 1900 to have a .450 average with 50 hits and 10 HR in a month- Babe Ruth (July 1923-24) and Lou Gehrig (June 1930) are the others.

— Seattle Mariners 77-59 this year, but only 21-24 in one-run games. The last two years, Seattle was 34-22/33-19 in one-run games.

— Cubs 15, Reds 7
Game was 5-5 after seven innings; Cincinnati has serious pitching issues. They also have COVID related issues; four players are on that list right now.

— A’s 10, Angels 6
Oakland didn’t have any hits in the first five innings.
In innings 6-7, A’s scored 10 runs on 10 hits.

— Rangers 6, Twins 5
Mitch Garver homered twice for Texas.
Adolis Garcia hit a walk-off homer for the Rangers.

— There were 30 baseball games Saturday/Sunday; of the 60 starting pitchers, only 14 of them finished the sixth inning.

— Montenegro has a team in the FIBA basketball tournament; they were playing the American team last week and I felt like an idiot— if you had given me $100 to find Montenegro on a map, I would’ve had no idea where to look first. I was much smarter 45 years ago than I am now.
Turns out Montenegro is kind of in between Serbia and Albania, on the Adriatic Sea.

 

[Udog]

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in non-conference games in the last 2 seasons.


ATLANTA is 20-8 ATS (11.2 Units) in home games in the 1rst 2 weeks of the season since 1992.


BALTIMORE is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5-10.5 pts. in the last 3 seasons.


CLEVELAND is 7-20 ATS (-15 Units) at home when the total is 45.5-49 since 1992.


INDIANAPOLIS are 18-7 ATS (10.3 Units) as a home dog of 3.5-7 since 1992.


MINNESOTA is 8-1 Over (6.9 Units) in home games as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.


TENNESSEE is 62-38 ATS (20.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.


PITTSBURGH is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons.


WASHINGTON is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.


CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons.


LAS VEGAS are 67-98 ATS (-40.8 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.


LA CHARGERS are 67-44 ATS (18.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.


NEW ENGLAND is 96-63 ATS (26.7 Units) as a dog since 1992.


Pete Carroll is 17-7 ATS (9.3 Units) in home games in the first month of the season (Coach of SEATTLE)


NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) as a dog in the last 2 seasons.


NY JETS are 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games in the 1rst 2 weeks of the season since 1992.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 1

Thursday
Lions (0-0) @ Chiefs (0-0)
— Last two years, Detroit is 10-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 12-21-1 SU, 23-10-1 ATS.
— Detroit is 5-16-1 SU in last 22 road openers.
— Last seven years, Lions are 4-3 ATS in road openers
— Last five years, Detroit is 12-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Goff is 56-48-1 as an NFL starter, 12-18-1 with the Lions.
— Over 7-1 in their last eight road openers
— Last time Goff played vs Chiefs, his Rams won 54-51 Monday night tilt.


— Last 20 years, Super Bowl champ is 11-6-3 ATS in Week 1 the following year.
— Last three years, KC is 10-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last seven years, Chiefs scored 33+ points in all their Week 1 games.
— Kansas City is 7-0 SU/4-3 ATS in last seven home openers.
— Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
— Mahomes is 75-19 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 5-1-2 in their last eight home openers.
— Last three years, under is 15-9-1 in KC home games.


— Chiefs lead series, 9-5.
— This is Lions’ first visit to Arrowhead since 2003.
— Last time Lions beat KC was 2011, 48-3 in the Motor City.


Sunday
Texans (0-0) @ Ravens (0-0)
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— Last 3 years, Texans are 10-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— However, they’re 4-9-1 ATS as a road dog outside AFC South, 6-2 in division.
— Houston covered five of last six road openers.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
— Mills is 5-19-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last two years, under is 11-6 in Houston road games.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.


— Last seven years, Ravens are 6-1 ATS in Week 1
— Last two years, Baltimore is 3-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— 5-2 ATS last seven home openers
— Last three years, scored 38-36-38 points in home openers
— Lamar Jackson is 46-19 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Last two years, Ravens are 18-16 SU, with a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home games.


— Ravens are 10-2 against Houston.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Texans are 0-6 in Baltimore, losing last visit 41-7 in 2019.


Bengals (0-0) @ Browns (0-0)
— QB Burrow hurt his calf in preseason; check status.
— Cincinnati lost its last four road openers.
— Bengals went to OT in Week 1 the last two years (1-1)
— Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Last 2 years, Bengals were 22-11 SU, 22-9-2 ATS.
— Last 2 years, Cincy is 8-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last 2 years, Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in AFC North road games.
— Under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 road games.


— Browns have had one winning season (2020) since 2007.
— Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in last five games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Cleveland scored 35-31-30 points in their home opener.
— Last year was first time since 2004 that Browns won in Week 1.
— Last nine years, Cleveland is 9-17-1 ATS in AFC North home tilts (3-0 LY)
— Over is 7-2 in Browns’ last seven home openers.
— Watson is 32-30 as an NFL starter, was 3-3 for Cleveland LY.


— Browns won five of last six games against Cincinnati.
— Bengals lost their last five visits to Cleveland.


Buccaneers (0-0) @ Vikings (0-0)
— Despite being 8-9, Tampa Bay won the NFC South last year.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 6-13-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bucs are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games on artificial turf.
— Mayfield is 32-39 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Buccaneers were 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games LY.
— Bucs are 5-3 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Last two years, under is 11-5 in Tampa Bay road games.
— Bucs’ new OC Dave Canales spent last 12 years in Seattle.


— Minnesota made playoffs LY, for first time since 2019.
— Vikings won/covered 7 of their last 8 home openers.
— Vikings were 11-0 SU LY in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Minnesota is 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2014, Vikings are 23-11-1 as a non-divisional home favorite.
— Last three years, over is 18-7 in Minnesota home games.
— Cousins is 73-66-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Vikings’ new defensive coordinator is former Dolphins’ HC Brian Flores.


— Tampa Bay won seven of last nine series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Bucs lost last visit to Minnesota, 34-17 in 2017.


Titans (0-0) @ Saints (0-0)
— Titans were 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2015.
— Tennessee lost its last seven games (1-5-1 ATS) last year.
— Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road openers.
— Last 3 years, Tennessee is 9-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tannehill is 80-68 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Since 2015, Titans are 19-14-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Last two years, Titans are 7-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.


— New Orleans was 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2016.
— Saints are 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in last eight home openers.
— New Orleans won last four years in Week 1, scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Since 2018, Saints are 13-15 ATS as a home favorite
— Since 2018, NO is 18-11-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last two years, under is 10-7 in Saints’ home games.
— LY, New Orleans was minus-11 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)


— Tennessee leads series, 9-6-1
— Road team won four of last five meetings.
— Titans won their last three visits to Bourbon Street.


Panthers (0-0) @ Falcons (0-0)
— New coach, rookie QB usually suggests a losing season.
— Panthers have had five straight losing seasons.
— Reich was 41-35-1 coaching the Colts (1-2 in playoffs)
— Carolina went 8-3 ATS in last 11 games LY, after they fired the coach.
— Last two years, Panthers were 6-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Carolina is 5-4 ATS in last nine road openers.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Last four years, Panthers are 7-5 ATS in NFC South road games.
— Last 3 years, dogs were 19-2 ATS in Carolina games when spread was 3 or fewer points.


— Falcons have also had five straight losing seasons.
— Atlanta is 14-20 SU in two years under Arthur Smith.
— Seven of their last 10 games LY were decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Atlanta is 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2004, Atlanta is 15-4 ATS in home openers.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 7-4-2 ATS in games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Ridder was 2-2 as a starter last year, his rookie season.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight games.


— Teams split their season series (3-3) the last three years.
— Panthers won two of last three visits to Atlanta.


Jaguars (0-0) @ Colts (0-0)
— Jaguars made playoffs LY for 1st time since 2017, 2nd time since ’07.
— Jags were first team EVER to win playoff game with a minus-5 TO ratio.
— Jacksonville was +6 in turnovers LY; they were minus-20 in 2021.
— Last five years, Jaguars are 5-8-2 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Since 2018, Jaguars are 6-12-2 ATS on artificial turf.
— Lawrence is 12-22 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Over last decade, Jaguars are 6-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Pederson is 56-48-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).


— This will be 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Colts lost 10 of their last 12 games SU last year.
— Colts are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Indy is 2-6-1 ATS in AFC South home games.
— No idea which QB starts; Minshew has a 8-16 record as a starter.
— If rookie QB Richardson starts, rookie QB/new coach isn’t great.
— Last three years, under is 14-10 in Colts’ home games.
— Colts were minus-13 in turnovers LY (+14/+10 previous two years)


— Home side won last 11 series games.
— Jaguars lost their last five visits to Indy (1-2-2 ATS, all as underdogs)


49ers (0-0) @ Steelers (0-0)
— San Francisco won 12 of its last 13 games (10-3 ATS) LY.
— 49ers were +14 in turnovers last year (minus-15 in 2020-21)
— Last two years, SF were 23-11 in regular season, 4-2 in playoffs.
— Since 2016, 49ers are 11-12 ATS as a road favorite.
— SF is 3-4 SU/ATS in its last seven road openers.
— 49ers are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— 49ers are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games vs AFC opponents.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 7-1 as NFL starter.


— Steelers went 9-8/9-7-1 the last two seasons.
— Pittsburgh won/covered six of its last seven games LY.
— Since 2018, Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Pitt is 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Since 2015, Steelers are 20-15 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Steelers are 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five home openers.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 7-5 as an NFL starter.


— Home team won last five series games.
— 49ers lost last two visits here; their last win in Pittsburgh was in 1996.


Cardinals (0-0) @ Commanders (0-0)
— New GM, new coach, different QB for Arizona in Week 1.
— Cardinals lost seven in row, 11 of their last 13 games SU (4-6 ATS in last 10).
— Kyler Murray is still recovering from a knee injury; Colt McCoy is starter.
— 37-year old McCoy is 11-25 as an NFL starter (4-4 since 2020)
— Last five years, Cardinals are 20-9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Arizona was 1-13 SU last year when it scored less than 29 points.
— Cardinals won their last three road openers, covered last four.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.


— 2022 5th-round pick QB Howell gets his 2nd NFL start here.
— Howell won his first NFL start 26-6 against the Cowboys.
— LY, Washington was 5-1 when it scored 23+ points, 3-7-1 if they didn’t.
— Last five years, Commanders are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under was 10-3 in Washington’s last 13 games last year.
— Under is 17-6 in Commanders’ last 23 home games.
— Washington is 3-8 SU/ATS in last eleven home openers.


— Washington won 10 of last 13 series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Cardinals lost last eight visits here; their last win in Washington was in 1998.


Raiders (0-0) @ Broncos (0-0)
— Last three years, Raiders are -7/-9/-11 in turnovers.
— Raiders blew five double digit leads in 2nd half last year.
— Garoppolo is 40-17 as an NFL starting QB.
— Garoppolo worked with coach McDaniels in New England.
— Last four years, Raiders are 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Las Vegas is 6-4 ATS as an AFC West road dog.
— Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road openers.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 road games.
— Raiders were 3-8 SU LY in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.


— Sean Payton (152-89 as NFL HC) makes his Denver debut here.
— Denver lost 11 of its last 14 games last year.
— Last 8 years with the Saints, Payton was 20-29-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2017, Broncos are 7-15-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last three years, Denver is 5-3-1 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Denver is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 home openers.
— Last two years, under was 10-6 in Broncos’ home games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-71-1 as an NFL starter.


— Las Vegas won last six series games.
— Raiders won last three visits to Denver (won 22-16 in OT LY)


Dolphins (0-0) @ Chargers (0-0)
— Last 3 years, Miami was 10-6/9-8/9-8……0-1 in playoffs.
— Miami was 9-8 LY despite a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 13-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Over was 7-2 in Miami road games last season.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 12-7 ATS on artificial turf.
— Last 2 years, Miami is 4-6 in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Tagovailoa is 21-13 as an NFL starter.


— Chargers made playoffs LY, lost 31-30, blowing 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.
— Kellen Moore comes in from Dallas to be new OC.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 6-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bolts are 6-12-7 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Herbert is 25-25 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers started the last four seasons 1-0 SU.
— Chargers are 2-4 ATS in last six home openers.
— Bolts’ last three home openers stayed under the total.


— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Dolphins won last three visits to San Diego/LA.


Eagles (0-0) @ Patriots (0-0)
— Last 20 years, Super Bowl loser is 4-16 ATS in Week 1 the next year.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 25-13 SU.
— Last 3 years, Eagles are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in last five road openers.
— Hurts is 25-13 as an NFL starter.
— Philly is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.


— Since Brady left, NE is 25-25 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last three years, Patriots are 3-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Mac Jones is 16-16 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots brought Bill O’Brien in to be Jones’ new QB guru.
— Patriots are 6-4 ATS last ten games vs NFC opponents.
— New England is 4-8 ATS in last dozen home openers.
— Last year was first time since 2002 NE was an underdog in its home opener.
— Under is 23-17-1 in New England’s last 41 home games.


— New England won five of last seven series games.
— Two of those games (1-1) were Super Bowls.
— Eagles are 2-3 in Foxboro; their last visit here was in 2015.


Rams (0-0) @ Seahawks (0-0)
— Last year was Rams’ first losing season since 2016.
— Rams were 1-5-1 ATS as a road dog LY (7-3-1 from ’17-’21)
— Big ?? For Rams; did they improve their offensive line?
— Stafford is 93-104-1 as an NFL starter, 19-11 with the Rams.
— Rams are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 NFC West road games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS in season openers.
— Rams covered four of last five road openers.


— Since 2003, Seahawks are 18-2 SU/15-5 ATS in home openers.
— Last two years, Seattle is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last six years, Seahawks are 7-10-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
— Geno Smith is 22-29 as an NFL starter, 10-11 with Seattle.
— Under Carroll, Seattle is 41-35-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 9-3 in Seahawks’ last dozen home openers.
— Last three years, under is 15-10 in Seattle home games.
— Seattle was 16-19 last two years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.


— Rams are 8-4 in last 12 series games, but lost 27-23/19-16 LY.
— Rams won three of their last four visits to Seattle.


Packers (0-0) @ Bears (0-0)
— Jordan Love lost his only NFL start 13-7 at Kansas City in 2021.
— Last four years, Packers are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— GB is 12-8-2 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 8-12 ATS in last 20 NFC North road games.
— Green Bay is 2-4 SU/ATS in last six road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last eight road openers.
— This is 5th year in a row that Green Bay opens on the road (2-2 L4)
— Green Bay had three losing seasons in the last six years.


— Bears were 9-25 SU/12-20-2 ATS the last two years.
— Fields is 5-20 SU as an NFL starter; prospect or suspect?
— Last four years, Chicago is 5-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Chicago is 1-8 ATS last nine NFC North home games.
— Bears are 13-9-2 in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Chicago won four of its last five home openers.
— Bears’ last six home openers stayed under the total.
— Chicago was 3-14 LY; their turnover ratio was only minus-2.


— Green Bay won/covered last eight games in this rivalry.
— Packers are 17-2 SU in last 19 series games.
— Green Bay’s last loss here was in 2018.


Cowboys (0-0) @ Giants (0-0)
— McCarthy takes over as play-caller for departed OC Moore.
— Last two years, Dallas is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 16-11-1 in last 28 games as a road favorite.
— Dallas is 6-6 SU/9-3 ATS in last dozen road openers.
— Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven road openers.
— QB Prescott is 63-40 as an NFL starter.
— Last six years, Dallas is 11-7 ATS in NFC East road games.


— Giants made playoffs LY for first time since 2016.
— Since 2018, Giants are 9-19 ATS as a home dog (2-1 LY)
— Last five years, Big Blue is 5-10 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Daniel Jones is 22-32-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last 11 years, Giants are 2-9 SU/1-10 ATS in last 11 home openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
— Giants were +1 in turnovers LY (minus-25 from 2019-21)
— Last four years, under is 23-9-1 in their home games.


— Dallas won four in row, 11 of last 12 series games.
— Cowboys won/covered five of last six visits to Giants Stadium.
— This is 7th time in last 12 years these teams met in Week 1.

Monday
Bills (0-0) @ Jets (0-0)
— Last four years, Bills are 37-18 in regular season, 4-4 in playoffs.
— Last four years, Buffalo is 13-9 ATS as road favorites.
— Last five years, Buffalo is 9-5-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Bills are 10-1 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Josh Allen is 56-28 as an NFL starter.
— Buffalo is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven road openers.
— Bills are 7-3 ATS in last ten Week 1 games.


— Last 7 years, Jets are 34-80 SU; they have new QB now, guy named Rodgers.
— Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.
— Rodgers is 158-85-1 as an NFL starter, 11-10 in playoff games.
— Last two years, Jets are 5-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last five years, Jets are 4-11 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Last three years, Jets are 3-8 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Jets are 4-8 SU in last 12 home openers, 7-3 ATS in last ten.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.


— Buffalo won five of last six series games.
— Bills won four of last five series games in New Jersey.

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 1

 

[Cnotes53]

I was released this afternoon...I survived the scare...........🙏🙏🙏

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 7​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
DET at KC	08:20 PM	DET +4.0 O 52.5	+500 +500

 

[Udog]

I was released this afternoon...I survived the scare...........🙏🙏🙏

​

Alright!!! The world is right again! Glad you're feeling better!

 

[Cnotes53]

Udog works hard getting us those information.....and keeping this thread going while i was on the mend.
Am just so lucky to survive Heart Failure and back in action......🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
09/07/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

SEPT'S NFL BEST BETS"

09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Pick	Outcome
Sep 7, 2023	NFL	Detroit Kansas City	21 20	Over 52.5	Loss
Sep 3, 2023	MLB	Atlanta LA Dodgers	1 3	ATL -109	Loss
Sep 2, 2023	MLB	San Francisco San Diego	1 6	Under 7.5	Win
Sep 1, 2023	NCAAF	Louisville Georgia Tech	39 34	GT +7.0	Win

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
Interesting point spreads in the NFL this week:
— Panthers @ Atlanta (-3.5, 39.5)
— Bengals (-2, 47.5) @ Cleveland
— Jaguars (-5, 46) @ Indianapolis
— Buccaneers (-5.5, 45.5) @ Minnesota
— Titans @ New Orleans (-3, 41.5)
— 49ers (-2.5, 41) @ Pittsburgh

Quote of the Day
“I don’t know that I’ve ever been more disappointed in a person, a group of people, or an institution than I am with the NCAA right now. It’s clear that the NCAA is about process and it couldn’t care less about the young people it’s supposed to be supporting.”
North Carolina football coach Mack Brown, after one of his players was denied eligibility for the 2023 season

Friday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes was the Chiefs’ backup QB his rookie year in the NFL; who was the Chiefs’ starting QB that year?

Thursday’s quiz
Erik Kramer was the Detroit Lions’ QB the last time they won a playoff game, in 1991.

Wednesday’s quiz
Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre played most of his career in Green Bay; he started his NFL career with the Atlanta Falcons.
Posted onSeptember 8, 2023Leave a commenton Friday’s 6-pack, Quote, Quiz of the Day

*********************************************​

Lions 21, Chiefs 20
— Lions drove 75 yards for game-winning TD with 7:06 left.
— Detroit tied game on a pick-6 with 10:54 left in 3rd quarter.
— Last two years, Detroit is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 13-21-1 SU, 24-10-1 ATS.
— Goff is 57-48-1 as an NFL starter, 13-18-1 with the Lions.
— In 1st half, Chiefs 28 plays for 187 yards, scored 2 TD’s on four drives.
— In 2nd half, Chiefs ran 36 plays for only 134 yards on seven drives.
— Last 3+ years, KC is 10-14 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, under is 16-9-1 in KC home games.
— Chiefs’ WR’s had a rough night; they missed injured TE Kelce.

— Cincinnati Bengals gave QB Joe Burrow a 5-year, $275M contract Thursday, making him the NFL’s highest-paid player. $219M of that $275M is guaranteed.

— When Colorado upset TCU Saturday, they did it in a game where the Horned Frogs had a 15-yard edge in average field position.
Since the start of last season, college teams with a 15+-yard edge in field position have won 100 of 104 games SU.

— Mariners 1, Rays 0
Luis Castillo tossed six shutout innings.
Tampa Bay was 0-7 with runners in scoring position.

— Detroit 10, New York 3— Spencer Torkelson hit two home runs for the Tigers.

— Dodgers 10, Marlins 0— Ryan Pepiot threw seven shutout IP.

— Angels 3, Guardians 2— Halos scored twice in bottom of 9th; Randal Grichuk had the walk-off single.
Grichuk got in the game when Angels’ utility guy Luis Rengifo left the game in the first inning; he strained a biceps muscle swinging the bat in the on-deck circle. Seriously, he did.

— Word of the Day— Integrity— the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness.

— College Football Trend of the Day— In his college career, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is 18-24 ATS at home, 29-24-1 on road.

— Miami Marlins put P Sandy Alcantara/OF Jorge Soler on the IL.

— Washington Nationals gutted their front office Thursday, firing 13 scouts- it is unclear whether GM Mike Rizzo’s job is safe or not. They also postponed a ceremony where retired P Stephen Strasburg was going to get his number retired by the team.

— Individual team over/unders for Week 1 NFL

Detroit 24— under. Kansas City 28— under.
Houston 17— Baltimore 27—
Cincinnati 25— Cleveland— 22.5
Tampa Bay 20— Minnesota— 26
Tennessee 19— New Orleans 22—
Carolina 18— Atlanta 21.5—

Jacksonville 25— Indianapolis 20—
San Francisco 22— Pittsburgh 19.5—
Arizona 15.5— Washington 22.5
Las Vegas 20.5— Denver 24
Miami 24— LA Chargers 27—

Philadelphia 24.5— New England 20.5—
Green Bay 21— Chicago 22—
LA Rams 20.5— Seattle 25.5—
Dallas 25— NJ Giants 21.5—
Buffalo 24.5— NJ Jets 22—

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Interesting point spreads in the NFL this week:
— Cardinals @ Washington (-7, 38)
— Raiders @ Denver (-3.5, 43)
— Miami @ LA Chargers (-3, 51)
— Eagles (-4, 44.5) @ New England
— Packers @ Chicago (-1.5, 42)
— Cowboys (-3.5, 45) @ NJ Giants

Quote of the Day
“I wish I wasn’t out there for the seventh to be honest. I was at 90 pitches and I didn’t think I needed to go anymore, but, you know, it is what it is. It’ll be a conversation soon.”
Mariners’ starting pitcher George Kirby, after Seattle’s 7-4 loss Friday

Saturday’s quiz
Kurt Warner won the Super Bowl with the 1999 Rams; who did they play in their season opener that year?
Hint: That team won the Super Bowl the next season

Friday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes was the Chiefs’ backup QB his rookie year in the NFL; Alex Smith was the Chiefs’ starting QB that year.

Thursday’s quiz
Erik Kramer was the Detroit Lions’ QB the last time they won a playoff game, in 1991.

******************************************

Saturday’s Den: Our Week 1 NFL writeup​

Texans (0-0) @ Ravens (0-0)
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— Last 3 years, Texans are 10-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— However, they’re 4-9-1 ATS as a road dog outside AFC South, 6-2 in division.
— Houston covered five of last six road openers.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
— Rookie QB Stroud gets the nod under center here, with a rookie head coach.
— Last two years, under is 11-6 in Houston road games.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.
— Last seven years, Ravens are 6-1 ATS in Week 1
— Last two years, Baltimore is 3-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— 5-2 ATS last seven home openers
— Last three years, they scored 38-36-38 points in home openers
— Lamar Jackson is 46-19 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Last two years, Ravens are 18-16 SU, with a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home games.
— Ravens are 10-2 against Houston.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Texans are 0-6 in Baltimore, losing last visit 41-7 in 2019.

Bengals (0-0) @ Browns (0-0)
— QB Burrow hurt his calf in preseason; is expected to play here.
— Cincinnati lost its last four road openers.
— Bengals went to OT in Week 1 the last two years (1-1)
— Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Last 2 years, Bengals were 22-11 SU, 22-9-2 ATS.
— Last 2 years, Cincy is 8-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last 2 years, Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in AFC North road games.
— Under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 road games.
— Browns have had one winning season (2020) since 2007.
— Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in last five games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Cleveland scored 35-31-30 points in their home opener.
— Last year was first time since 2004 that Browns won in Week 1.
— Last nine years, Cleveland is 9-17-1 ATS in AFC North home tilts (3-0 LY)
— Over is 7-2 in Browns’ last seven home openers.
— Watson is 32-30 as an NFL starter, was 3-3 for Cleveland LY.
— Browns won five of last six games against Cincinnati.
— Bengals lost their last five visits to Cleveland.

Buccaneers (0-0) @ Vikings (0-0)
— Despite being 8-9, Tampa Bay won the NFC South last year.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 6-13-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bucs are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games on artificial turf.
— Mayfield is 32-39 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Buccaneers were 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games LY.
— Bucs are 5-3 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Last two years, under is 11-5 in Tampa Bay road games.
— Bucs’ new OC Dave Canales spent last 12 years in Seattle.
— Minnesota made playoffs LY, for first time since 2019.
— Vikings won/covered 7 of their last 8 home openers.
— Vikings were 11-0 SU LY in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Minnesota is 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2014, Vikings are 23-11-1 as a non-divisional home favorite.
— Last three years, over is 18-7 in Minnesota home games.
— Cousins is 73-66-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Vikings’ new defensive coordinator is former Dolphins’ HC Brian Flores.
— Tampa Bay won seven of last nine series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Bucs lost last visit to Minnesota, 34-17 in 2017.

Titans (0-0) @ Saints (0-0)
— Titans were 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2015.
— Tennessee lost its last seven games (1-5-1 ATS) last year.
— Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road openers.
— Last 3 years, Tennessee is 9-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tannehill is 80-68 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Since 2015, Titans are 19-14-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Last two years, Titans are 7-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— New Orleans was 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2016.
— Saints are 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in last eight home openers.
— New Orleans won last four years in Week 1, scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Since 2018, Saints are 13-15 ATS as a home favorite
— Since 2018, NO is 18-11-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Derek Carr is 63-80 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last two years, under is 10-7 in Saints’ home games.
— LY, New Orleans was minus-11 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)
— Tennessee leads series, 9-6-1
— Road team won four of last five meetings.
— Titans won their last three visits to Bourbon Street.

Panthers (0-0) @ Falcons (0-0)
— New coach, rookie QB usually suggests a losing season.
— Panthers have had five straight losing seasons.
— Reich was 41-35-1 coaching the Colts (1-2 in playoffs)
— Carolina went 8-3 ATS in last 11 games LY, after they fired the coach.
— Last two years, Panthers were 6-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Carolina is 5-4 ATS in last nine road openers.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Last four years, Panthers are 7-5 ATS in NFC South road games.
— Last 3 years, dogs were 19-2 ATS in Carolina games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Falcons have also had five straight losing seasons.
— Atlanta is 14-20 SU in two years under Arthur Smith.
— Seven of their last 10 games LY were decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Atlanta is 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2004, Atlanta is 15-4 ATS in home openers.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 7-4-2 ATS in games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Ridder was 2-2 as a starter last year, his rookie season.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight games.
— Teams split their season series (3-3) the last three years.
— Panthers won two of last three visits to Atlanta.

Jaguars (0-0) @ Colts (0-0)
— Jaguars made playoffs LY for 1st time since 2017, 2nd time since ’07.
— Jags were first team EVER to win playoff game with a minus-5 TO ratio.
— Jacksonville was +6 in turnovers LY; they were minus-20 in 2021.
— Last five years, Jaguars are 5-8-2 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Since 2018, Jaguars are 6-12-2 ATS on artificial turf.
— Lawrence is 12-22 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Over last decade, Jaguars are 6-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Pederson is 56-48-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— This will be 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Colts lost 10 of their last 12 games SU last year.
— Colts are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Indy is 2-6-1 ATS in AFC South home games.
— No idea which QB starts; Minshew has a 8-16 record as a starter.
— Rookie QB Richardson starts, rookie QB/new coach combo isn’t great.
— Last three years, under is 14-10 in Colts’ home games.
— Colts were minus-13 in turnovers LY (+14/+10 previous two years)
— Home side won last 11 series games.
— Jaguars lost their last five visits to Indy (1-2-2 ATS, all as underdogs)

49ers (0-0) @ Steelers (0-0)
— San Francisco won 12 of its last 13 games (10-3 ATS) LY.
— 49ers were +14 in turnovers last year (minus-15 in 2020-21)
— Last two years, SF were 23-11 in regular season, 4-2 in playoffs.
— Since 2016, 49ers are 11-12 ATS as a road favorite.
— SF is 3-4 SU/ATS in its last seven road openers.
— 49ers are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— 49ers are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games vs AFC opponents.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 7-1 as NFL starter.
— Steelers went 9-8/9-7-1 the last two seasons.
— Pittsburgh won/covered six of its last seven games LY.
— Since 2018, Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Pitt is 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Since 2015, Steelers are 20-15 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Steelers are 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five home openers.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 7-5 as an NFL starter.
— Home team won last five series games.
— 49ers lost last two visits here; their last win in Pittsburgh was in 1996.

Cardinals (0-0) @ Commanders (0-0)
— New GM, new coach, different QB for Arizona in Week 1.
— Cardinals lost seven in row, 11 of their last 13 games SU (4-6 ATS in last 10).
— Kyler Murray is still recovering from a knee injury; Colt McCoy is starter.
— 37-year old McCoy is 11-25 as an NFL starter (4-4 since 2020)
— Last five years, Cardinals are 20-9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Arizona was 1-13 SU last year when it scored less than 29 points.
— Cardinals won their last three road openers, covered last four.
— Dobbs is 0-2 as an NFL starting QB.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.
— 2022 5th-round pick QB Howell gets his 2nd NFL start here.
— Howell won his first NFL start 26-6 against the Cowboys.
— LY, Washington was 5-1 when it scored 23+ points, 3-7-1 if they didn’t.
— Last five years, Commanders are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under was 10-3 in Washington’s last 13 games last year.
— Under is 17-6 in Commanders’ last 23 home games.
— Washington is 3-8 SU/ATS in last eleven home openers.
— Washington won 10 of last 13 series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Cardinals lost last eight visits here; their last win in Washington was in 1998.

Raiders (0-0) @ Broncos (0-0)
— Last three years, Raiders are -7/-9/-11 in turnovers.
— Raiders blew five double digit leads in 2nd half last year.
— Garoppolo is 40-17 as an NFL starting QB.
— Garoppolo worked with coach McDaniels in New England.
— Last four years, Raiders are 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Las Vegas is 6-4 ATS as an AFC West road dog.
— Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road openers.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 road games.
— Raiders were 3-8 SU LY in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.
— Sean Payton (152-89 as NFL HC) makes his Denver debut here.
— Denver lost 11 of its last 14 games last year.
— Last 8 years with the Saints, Payton was 20-29-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2017, Broncos are 7-15-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last three years, Denver is 5-3-1 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Denver is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 home openers.
— Last two years, under was 10-6 in Broncos’ home games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-71-1 as an NFL starter.
— Las Vegas won last six series games.
— Raiders won last three visits to Denver (won 22-16 in OT LY)

Dolphins (0-0) @ Chargers (0-0)
— Last 3 years, Miami was 10-6/9-8/9-8……0-1 in playoffs.
— Miami was 9-8 LY despite a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 13-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Over was 7-2 in Miami road games last season.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 12-7 ATS on artificial turf.
— Last 2 years, Miami is 4-6 in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Tagovailoa is 21-13 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers made playoffs LY, lost 31-30, blowing 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.
— Kellen Moore comes in from Dallas to be new OC.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 6-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bolts are 6-12-7 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Herbert is 25-25 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers started the last four seasons 1-0 SU.
— Chargers are 2-4 ATS in last six home openers.
— Bolts’ last three home openers stayed under the total.
— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Dolphins won last three visits to San Diego/LA.

Eagles (0-0) @ Patriots (0-0)
— Last 20 years, Super Bowl loser is 4-16 ATS in Week 1 the next year.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 25-13 SU.
— Last 3 years, Eagles are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in last five road openers.
— Hurts is 25-13 as an NFL starter.
— Philly is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.
— Since Brady left, NE is 25-25 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last three years, Patriots are 3-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Mac Jones is 16-16 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots brought Bill O’Brien in to be Jones’ new QB guru.
— Patriots are 6-4 ATS last ten games vs NFC opponents.
— New England is 4-8 ATS in last dozen home openers.
— Last year was first time since 2002 NE was an underdog in its home opener.
— Under is 23-17-1 in New England’s last 41 home games.
— New England won five of last seven series games.
— Two of those games (1-1) were Super Bowls.
— Eagles are 2-3 in Foxboro; their last visit here was in 2015.

Rams (0-0) @ Seahawks (0-0)
— Last year was Rams’ first losing season since 2016.
— Rams were 1-5-1 ATS as a road dog LY (7-3-1 from ’17-’21)
— Big ?? For Rams; did they improve their offensive line?
— Stafford is 93-104-1 as an NFL starter, 19-11 with the Rams.
— Rams are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 NFC West road games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS in season openers.
— Rams covered four of last five road openers.
— WR Kupp (hamstring) is out for this week.
— Since 2003, Seahawks are 18-2 SU/15-5 ATS in home openers.
— Last two years, Seattle is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last six years, Seahawks are 7-10-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
— Geno Smith is 22-29 as an NFL starter, 10-11 with Seattle.
— Under Carroll, Seattle is 41-35-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 9-3 in Seahawks’ last dozen home openers.
— Last three years, under is 15-10 in Seattle home games.
— Seattle was 16-19 last two years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— Rams are 8-4 in last 12 series games, but lost 27-23/19-16 LY.
— Rams won three of their last four visits to Seattle.

Packers (0-0) @ Bears (0-0)
— Jordan Love lost his only NFL start 13-7 at Kansas City in 2021.
— Last four years, Packers are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— GB is 12-8-2 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 8-12 ATS in last 20 NFC North road games.
— Green Bay is 2-4 SU/ATS in last six road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last eight road openers.
— This is 5th year in a row that Green Bay opens on the road (2-2 L4)
— Green Bay had three losing seasons in the last six years.
— Bears were 9-25 SU/12-20-2 ATS the last two years.
— Fields is 5-20 SU as an NFL starter; prospect or suspect?
— Last four years, Chicago is 5-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Chicago is 1-8 ATS last nine NFC North home games.
— Bears are 13-9-2 in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Chicago won four of its last five home openers.
— Bears’ last six home openers stayed under the total.
— Chicago was 3-14 LY; their turnover ratio was only minus-2.
— Green Bay won/covered last eight games in this rivalry.
— Packers are 17-2 SU in last 19 series games.
— Green Bay’s last loss here was in 2018.

Cowboys (0-0) @ Giants (0-0)
— McCarthy takes over as play-caller for departed OC Moore.
— Last two years, Dallas is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 16-11-1 in last 28 games as a road favorite.
— Dallas is 6-6 SU/9-3 ATS in last dozen road openers.
— Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven road openers.
— QB Prescott is 63-40 as an NFL starter.
— Last six years, Dallas is 11-7 ATS in NFC East road games.
— Giants made playoffs LY for first time since 2016.
— Since 2018, Giants are 9-19 ATS as a home dog (2-1 LY)
— Last five years, Big Blue is 5-10 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Daniel Jones is 22-32-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last 11 years, Giants are 2-9 SU/1-10 ATS in last 11 home openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
— Giants were +1 in turnovers LY (minus-25 from 2019-21)
— Last four years, under is 23-9-1 in their home games.
— Dallas won four in row, 11 of last 12 series games.
— Cowboys won/covered five of last six visits to Giants Stadium.
— This is 7th time in last 12 years these teams met in Week 1.

Bills (0-0) @ Jets (0-0)
— Last four years, Bills are 37-18 in regular season, 4-4 in playoffs.
— Last four years, Buffalo is 13-9 ATS as road favorites.
— Last five years, Buffalo is 9-5-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Bills are 10-1 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Josh Allen is 56-28 as an NFL starter.
— Buffalo is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven road openers.
— Bills are 7-3 ATS in last ten Week 1 games.
— Last 7 years, Jets are 34-80 SU; they have new QB now, guy named Rodgers.
— Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.
— Rodgers is 158-85-1 as an NFL starter, 11-10 in playoff games.
— Last two years, Jets are 5-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last five years, Jets are 4-11 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Last three years, Jets are 3-8 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Jets are 4-8 SU in last 12 home openers, 7-3 ATS in last ten.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.
— Buffalo won five of last six series games.
— Bills won four of last five series games in New Jersey.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Most popular picks in the Circa Casino Survivor Pool in Las Vegas:
(all team has to do is win SU)
3,549— Commanders
2,985— Ravens
1,044— Vikings
600— Seahawks
349— Falcons
273— Jaguars

Quote of the Day
“Even when it got dicey … I love the response and the grit and perseverance our guys showed.”
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian

Sunday’s quiz
Where did Dak Prescott play his college football?

Saturday’s quiz
Kurt Warner won the Super Bowl with the 1999 Rams; they played the Baltimore Ravens in their season opener that year. Ravens won the Super Bowl the next season.

Friday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes was the Chiefs’ backup QB his rookie year in the NFL; Alex Smith was the Chiefs’ starting QB that year.

**************************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Saturday​

— Texas 34, Alabama 24
Loss ends Alabama’s 21-game home winning streak.
Texas outscored Crimson Tide 21-8 in 4th quarter.
Texas QB Evers was 24-38/349 passing, with 3 TD’s.
— So far this season, SEC teams are 7-10 ATS in non-conference games.

— Oregon 38, Texas Tech 30
If you took Texas Tech +4.5, don’t read this part.
Ducks kicked FG with 1:10 left to take 31-30 lead.
Oregon scored on a pick-6 with 0:35 left to cover the spread.
— So far this season, Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 11-4 ATS.

— North Carolina 40, Appalachian State 34 OT
App State kicked FG with 1:22 left to force overtime.
Total yardage: 527-494, Tar Heels
App State is a dangerous opponent; they’re used to winning.
A year from today, App State is scheduled to visit Clemson.

— Miami 48, Texas A&M 33
Van Dyke threw for 374 yards, 5 TD’s.
Miami had TD passes of 52-64 yards, ran kickoff back 98 yards for a TD.
I’m guessing the wealthy A&M boosters were thrilled with this score.
If A&M fires Jimbo Fisher this year, his buyout is $76.8M. He ain’t getting fired.

— Rice 43, Houston 41 OT
Rice led this game 28-0 with 3:00 left before halftime.
Houston tied game on a TD with 0:15 left.
Rice QB Daniels was 28-42/401, with 4 TD passes.
Big win over their local rival for the Rice program.

— James Madison 36, Virginia 35
Dukes were favored by 6.5 points in this game.
Virginia led 35-24 after third quarter.
JMU drove 80 yards for winning TD with 0:55 left.

— Upsets of the Day:
Florida International (+12) 46, North Texas 39
Rice (+8) 43, Houston 41 OT
Texas (+7) 34, Alabama 24
Cincinnati (+6.5) 27, Pittsburgh 21
Auburn (+5.5) 14, California 10
Washington State (+5) 31, Wisconsin 22

— Word of the Day: Opportunity— A set of circumstances that makes it possible to do something.

— Utah 20, Baylor 13
Neither starting QB played in this game.
Baylor’s #2 QB threw an INT deep in his own territory with game tied, 1:35 left
Utah scored game-winning TD with 0:17 left.

— Colorado 36, Nebraska 13
Nebraska’s QB lost three fumbles in this game, all without getting hit.
He fumbled two shotgun snaps, lost a handoff to a RB- he was awful.
Colorado QB Sanders has thrown for 910 yards in two games.

— Auburn 14, California 10— This is the first game Auburn ever won in the state of California.

— Orioles 13, Red Sox 12— James McCann hit two home runs for Baltimore.

— Arizona 3, Cubs 2 (10)— Diamondbacks are 3-0 in Wrigley so far this weekend, have moved into the third Wild Card slot in the NL, 1.5 games ahead of Miami.

— Rays 7, Mariners 5— Yandy Diaz hit a double and walk-off homer in a game he didn’t start.

— Astros 7, Mariners 5— Yordan Alvarez scored twice, knocked in two runs.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 1

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 10​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
CAR at ATL	01:00 PM	CAR +3.5 U 40.0	+500 +500
TEN at NO	01:00 PM	TEN +3.0 O 41.5	+500 +500
HOU at BAL	01:00 PM	HOU +10.0 U 43.0	+500 +500
CIN at CLE	01:00 PM	CLE +1.0 O 47.0	+500 +500
TB at MIN	01:00 PM	TB +5.0 U 45.5	+500 +500
SF at PIT	01:00 PM	PIT +2.5 O 41.5	+500 +500
JAC at IND	01:00 PM	IND +4.5 O 46.5	+500 +500
ARI at WAS	01:00 PM	WAS -7.0 U 38.0	+500 +500
MIA at LAC	04:25 PM	LAC -3.0 U 51.5	+500 +500
PHI at NE	04:25 PM	PHI -3.5 U 44.0	+500 +500
LV at DEN	04:25 PM	DEN -3.5 U 43.5	+500 +500
GB at CHI	04:25 PM	GB +1.0 U 41.0	+500 +500
LAR at SEA	04:25 PM	SEA -5.5 U 45.5	+500 +500
DAL at NYG	08:20 PM	DAL -3.0 U 44.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
09/10/2023	14-14-0	50.00%	-700	Detail
09/07/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

SEPT'S NFL BEST BETS"

09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023.............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50

TOTALS.................................13 - 9...............................59.09%...........................+ 15.50

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Dolphins 36, Chargers 34
— Tagovailoa was 28-45/466 passing, with three TD’s.
— Tyreek Hill caught 11 passes for 215 yards, 2 TD’s.
— Over is 8-2 in Miami’s last ten road games.
— Last 4+ years, Dolphins are 14-9 ATS as a road underdog.

— In last 2 games that counted, Chargers scored 30-34 points, but lost both.
— Chargers ran for 234 yards, were 9-15 on third down…….but still lost.
— Miami drove 75 yards for game-winning TD with 1:45 left.
— Bolts are 6-13-7 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Rams 30, Seahawks 13
— Stafford was 24-38/334 yards; he was freakin’ awesome.
— Rams were 11-17 on third down, Seattle 2-9.
— total yardage in game: Rams 426, Seahawks 180.
— Under McVay, Rams are 6-1 SU/ATS in season openers.

— Seahawks’ 1st 3 drives: 30 plays, 160 yards, 13 points.
— Seahawks rest of game: 18 plays, 23 yards, no points.
— Last 2+ years, Seattle is 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 6+ years, Seahawks are 7-11-1 ATS in NFC West home games.


Buccaneers 20, Vikings 17
— McLaughlin made a 57-yard FG with 5:15 left for winning score.
— Minnesota outgained the Buccaneers 369-242.
— Buccaneers averaged only 4.8 yards/pass attempt (Minn 7.1)
— Under is 12-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 17 road games.

— Vikings were 11-0 SU LY in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Jefferson caught nine passes for 150 yards, but no scores.
— Vikings ran the ball only 17 times for 41 yards.
— Last 3+ years, Minnesota is 7-13 ATS as a home favorite.


Ravens 25, Texans 9
— Baltimore led 7-6 at halftime.
— First two drives of 3rd quarter, Ravens drove 71-42 yards for TD’s.
— Texans are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road dog outside AFC South
— Under is 12-6 in Houston’s last 18 road games.

— Ravens were 8-15 on third down, Houston 7-18.
— Last eight years, Ravens are 7-1 ATS in Week 1
— Lamar Jackson is 47-19 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home games.


Browns 20, Bengals 3
— Cleveland outgained the Bengals 350-152.
— Cincinnati was 2-15 on 3rd down, had only six first downs.
— Cincinnati has now lost its last five road openers.
— Under is 11-5-2 in their last 18 road games.

— Browns won six of last seven games against Cincinnati.
— Bengals lost their last six visits to Cleveland.
— Browns ran ball for 206 yards.
— Watson is 33-30 as an NFL starter, 4-3 for Cleveland.


Saints 16, Titans 15
— Titans scored five times, but they were all field goals.
— Tennessee kicked FG with 2:20 left, but never got ball back.
— Hopkins caught 7 passes for 65 yards (13 targets)
— Tennessee has now lost its last eight games (2-5-1 ATS).

— Saints won their last five season openers.
— Only New Orleans TD came on a 33-yard drive, after an INT.
— Saints had four takeaways (+3) picking off three passes.
— LY, New Orleans was minus-11 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)


Falcons 24, Panthers 10
— Game was tied 10-10 after three quarters.
— Teams combined to throw ball for only 261 yards.
— Atlanta’s TD drives were short; 17-61-56 yards.
— Panthers are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.

— Since 2004, Atlanta is 16-4 ATS in home openers.
— Allgeier ran ball for 75 yards and two TD’s.
— Total yardage: Carolina 281, Atlanta 221.
— Under is 8-1 in Falcons’ last nine games.


Jaguars 31, Colts 21
— Jaguars scored two TD’s in 1:06 span of 4th quarter for comeback win.
— Jaguars were 3-12 on third down, Colts 2-12.
— Lawrence averaged 7.0 yards/pass attempt, Colts 5.0.
— Pederson is 57-48-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).

— This was 7th year in row Colts had a different #1 QB in Week 1
— Colts scored odd defensive TD to take 21-17 lead with 2:20 left in 3rd quarter.
— Indy is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog.
— Colts have lost 11 of their last 13 games SU


49ers 30, Steelers 7
— 49ers’ first four drives: two TD’s, two FG’s, 20 points.
— Steelers’ first five drives: 15 plays, minus-9 yards, 0 points.
— McCaffrey had a 65-yard TD run in third quarter.
— Since start of LY, 49ers are +17 in turnovers (minus-15 in 2020-21)

— 49ers ran ball 34 times for 188 yards; Steelers 10 times for 41 yards.
— Pitt QB Pickett was sacked five times.
— Total yardage: 49ers 391, Steelers 239
— Steelers are 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in last six home openers.


Commanders 20, Cardinals 16
— Cardinals’ only TD was scored by its defense with 0:55 left in half.
— Arizona kicked FG’s on two of its first three drives.
— After that, Redbirds gained total of 110 yards on 43 plays.
— Cardinals have lost 8 in row, 12 of last 14 games SU (5-6 ATS in last 10).

— Washington’s two TD drives were only 24-29 yards.
— Arizona led this game 13-10 at halftime.
— Total yardage: Washington 248, Arizona 210.
— Under is 18-6 in Commanders’ last 24 home games.


Raiders 17, Broncos 16
— Raiders drove 60 yards for game-winning TD with 6:34 left.
— Las Vegas won last seven games in this rivalry.
— Last 4+ years, Raiders are 15-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Garoppolo is 41-17 as an NFL starting QB.

— Denver started this game with an unsuccessful onside kick.
— Broncos missed PAT after first TD, which proved costly.
— Last 8+ years as a HC, Payton is 20-30-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Denver has lost 12 of its last 15 games SU.


Eagles 25, Patriots 20
— Eagles led this game 16-0 after the first quarter.
— Philly’s first TD was a pick-6 with 4:56 left in first quarter.
— Elliott kicked four FG’s, including ones from 56-48-51 yards.
— QB Hurts is 26-13 as an NFL starter.

— Patriots’ first 5 series: 17 plays, 43 yards, 2 turnovers, 3 punts.
— Last 3+ years, Patriots are 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Belichick was 249-75 in games with Brady as his QB.
— Belichick is 80-90 in games without Brady as his QB.


Packers 38, Bears 20
— Packers scored TD on three of first four drives in 3rd quarter.
— Green Bay scored on pick-6 that put them ahead 38-14.
— GB is 13-8-2 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Last four years, Packers are 12-5 ATS as a road underdog.

— Fields is now 5-21 SU as an NFL starting QB.
— Chicago is 1-9 ATS in last ten NFC North home games.
— Green Bay won/covered last nine games in this rivalry.
— Packers were 9-16 on third down, Chicago 3-13.


Cowboys 40, Giants 0
— Cowboys’ first TD came on a blocked FG.
— Cowboys’ second TD came on a 22-yard pick-6.
— Dallas won five in row, 12 of last 13 series games.
— Cowboys won/covered six of last seven visits to Giants Stadium.

— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 18-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Last 5+ years, Big Blue is 5-11 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Daniel Jones is 22-33-1 as an NFL starter.
— Since 2018, Giants are 9-20 ATS as a home underdog