- Dec 9, 2017
- 41
- 29
- 18
This is a tougher card than usual. I find it more challenging to handicap games with large spreads. Nonetheless, I still see several games and plays where I think we have value.
If you like the analysis, please visit www.nolandalla.com. A shout out to Mad Jack for the forum and all his terrific service to the sports gambling community for the past 25 years.
Let's begin (Page 1/2)
2022 NFL Analysis and Picks — Final Report (Week 5)
2022 NFL WAGERING RECORD
32 Wins
19 Losses
Note: I’ll make a video on Friday and post it here (likely Friday night). Check back if you prefer to listen to the analysis and picks.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Note: Early Game in London)
Giants +8 (-110) O41 (-110) +300
Packers -8 (-110) U41 (-110) -375
Analysis: Two 3-1 teams meet in London for a 6:30 am start (PDT). Remarkably, of all the years the NFL has scheduled games over in London, this marks the first time in more than 20 years that two teams with winning records will play across the pond. Both teams have struggled at times this season, especially on offense, despite winning records. Green Bay (2-2 ATS) stank in the opener and failed to cover laying -9 last week hosting New England with a backup QB. / Meanwhile, let’s credit the NY Giants for overachieving big-time and winning “ugly,” if there’s such a thing in the NFL. Green Bay is the obvious choice to win because Aaron Rodgers is the standout talent on the field, but can they cover such a high number? The Packers failed in a similar sport last week and I see nothing here facing the Giants that inspires added confidence. / Taking the Giants (3-1 ATS) plus the points would be probably the correct side under normal circumstances. Add in the uncertainties of travel, a foreign atmosphere, etc., and getting more than a touchdown is even more tempting. I would not play this if the game was played in Green Bay. The London factor and the fact the NY Giants appear to still be underrated by betting markets make me want to take the underdog with the points. / The problem here with making this bet is the Giants’ fragile quarterback situation, which was uncertain (as of midweek). Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor both suffered injuries in last week’s game. Neither QB is very good when 100 percent healthy, so I can’t imagine how bad the numbers can get if they have some kind of injury (note 71 passing yards for the Giants vs. Bears last week, and they won!). / All of this is a long-winded lead into a strong lean on the UNDER, even at a low total of 41. The Giants have been an UNDER machine since mid-2020, going to the low 21-5-1 within that span. This week, they have major concerns with the passing game and are likely to run the ball even more heavily. Green Bay has some offensive concerns, as well — scoring just 75 points in four games, averaging an ugly 18 PPG which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The UNDER is the pick.
My Pick: New York Giants-Green Bay Packers UNDER 41 — Risking $220 to win $200
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Steelers +13.5 (-110) O46.5 (-110) +600
Bills -13.5 (-110) U46.5 (-110) -900
Analysis: What? Pittsburgh is getting +14? Didn’t the Steelers beat the Bills outright in this same stadium last season? / Many trends favor the disrespected Steelers getting a shitload of points in this game, but most of that data is old. This isn’t the Ben Roethlisberger era anymore. Since their opening week upset at Cincy, Pittsburgh has looked dreadfully worse in each game and now the confidence might be melting from the Mike Tomlin sideline (who to his credit has never suffered a losing season–likely to happen now in 2022). Also, consider a crazy historical footnote that Pittsburgh has not been an underdog of this magnitude since 1969. In fact, the Steelers are the only team since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to *never* be a 14-point (or higher) underdog. These are tough days for Steelers fans, and even worse times if you’re betting on Pittsburgh. / Let’s also acknowledge that Buffalo’s offense hasn’t looked very good the last two weeks, though the defense has been fine. They lost in Miami and came close to defeat last week at Baltimore. But the Bills are a very different team at home, often winning by blowing out bad teams. The Steelers now fit into that category. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in their five games in Orchard Park. They smell blood here and should get an easy win. With Josh Allen under center, the Bills are 10-4-2 ATS as favorites of 7+ points, and he is 6-2-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite — so Buffalo likes rolling up points against bad teams. / It’s rare for me to lay DDs in the NFL, but I’m tossing lots of chalk here. So long as the weather doesn’t take a strange turn in Buffalo this weekend (high winds, heavy rain), I think Buffalo rolls up the score after two lackluster offensive efforts and win the game by a large margin. IMPORTANT: Pass on -14. Play only a -13.5 with no weather factors.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills -13.5 — Laying $220 to win $200
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Chargers -2.5 (-120) O47.5 (-110) -145
Browns +2.5 (+100) U47.5 (-110) +120
Analysis: It’s tough to predict which two teams will show up. The Chargers at 2-2 have been a disappointment, especially on the defense which was supposed to be their biggest improvement. LA’s defense ranks 20th in the NFL in yards allowed, and that’s with Houston and Jacksonville on their early schedule. Just how much stock do we place in the Chargers’ easy win at Houston in Week 4 and might it be problematic in Week 5 to play a second-straight road game against a well-rested opponent? Cleveland has 10-days rest and remains at home, usually an attractive prospect for an underdog. However, the Browns are just 7-12 ATS at home under head coach Kevin Stefanski. After a patsy September schedule that included the awful Steelers, Jets, and Panthers (and the Falcons, marginal at best), this will be their toughest competition. / The Chargers might be worth a look laying -2.5. I’ll give this consideration nearing game time. But right now it ranks as a pass.
My Pick: No action.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Bears +7.5 (-110) O44 (-110) +260
Vikings -7.5 (-110) U44 (-110) -350
Analysis: After shocking the Packers in Week 1 in an almost perfectly-played game, Minnesota has now failed to cover in 3 straight contests. One reason for the downturn is the Vikings’ defense ranks 27th in the NFL in total yards allowed. So, any output from the Bears’ anemic offense is likely to be met with marginal resistance. Moreover, if Chicago’s defense can slow down the Vikings’ occasionally explosive passing attack, they not only will cover — but could even win outright. / There’s nothing about the Vikings I like as a bettor, and much of my bias starts with no trust in Cousin Kirk’s quarterbacking or leadership. Asking Minnesota to cover more than a TD is a prospect I almost never want to touch. Minnesota is a woeful 7-13 ATS as a favorite since 2020, even further proof this team doesn’t cover against outclassed opposition. Add some valid concern about the Vikings’ coming off the London trip last week, and that makes handicapping this week’s game even more difficult. Hence, this becomes a “bet Chicago or pass” decision. / What keeps me off the Bears is some equally stinky data. Chicago is just 4-12 ATS as a dog since the start of 2021. QB Justin Fields has spent more than a season now running for his life with a depleted offensive line with no skilled weapons to get the ball to and is a horrid 3-9 ATS as an underdog. The bears also have one of the worst passing games in recent memory–they’ve attempted only 67 passes overall in four games, the fewest by any NFL team in 39 years. Furthermore, I can’t possibly bet the Bears in a second straight road game after they got whacked last week by the Giants. I considered teasing the Vikings down to -1.5, which might be justifiable. But this team nearly lost to the Lions at home and probably should be 1-3. I have no trust in either team, so this is a pass.
My Pick: No action.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
Lions +3 (-115) O45.5 (-110) +145
Patriots -3 (-105) U45.5 (-110) -175
Analysis: Detroit is currently on one of the strangest runs in recent football memory. Their defense is all-time horribly bad, allowing an astounding 35 PPG in four games this season, which is a full touchdown worse than the 31st-ranked team. Yet, all the feisty Lions do is cover spreads (and lose). Detroit is 13-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Dan Campbell (including 11-2 ATS in the past 13 games as a dog). Detroit has also covered six straight road games, but it is 0-10-1 outright in its past 11 road games. What do we make of all this, just hold our noses and bet the Lions OVER every week? The trouble with that strategy is, the Patriots will be without QB Mac Jones once again, and they’ll likely call upon Bailey Zappe, who filled in for backup Brian Hoyer after he suffered an injury last week. Head coach Bill Belichick says he’s taking the quarterback position day by day, so he isn’t giving us a clue as to who might start. I’m not sure it really matters. / I have to take Detroit plus the FG under these unusual circumstances. The Lions have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points. And finally, the Lions face an offense that simply should not be an equal match. Getting points with a team that’s fighting in every game as the Lions have done is an attractive prospect. Give me Detroit, so long as I can get +3, and not +2.5.
My Pick: Detroit Lions +3 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
Seahawks +5.5 (-110) O46 (-110) +180
Saints -5.5 (-110) U46 (-110) -225
Analysis: I keep on looking for a reason why the Saints are laying this many points to the Seahawks. I just don’t get it. I must be missing something. Who can possibly bet on New Orleans right now? Their only win is an ugly Week 1 come-from-behind frantic victory (non-cover) against Atlanta, while they have dropped three straight games since. New Orleans has also been decimated by injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Floundering stepchild bust-out Andy Dalton started their Week 4 loss in London vs. Vikings in place of the “injured” Jameis Winston (yeah, right). / The home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be for the Saints. They’re 0-2 in the Superdome and have covered just 1 of their past 6 at home. Yes, sometimes a team is so desperate for a win that things come together with good coaching and extra motivation, but this doesn’t look like the opponent that rolls over and plays dead. / Just wow, let’s credit the 2-2 Seahawks whom nobody expected to be competitive. Seattle is 45-27-2 ATS as an underdog under head coach Pete Carroll, including 16-8-1 ATS in the past five seasons. So, he rises to the occasion against better competition. Let’s also hand it to much-maligned Geno Smith, who is a remarkable 23-15 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS in his last 12 starts, and 5-2 ATS with Seattle. / The Seahawks have shown a spark offensively over the past two games and despite that, they are still nearly a touchdown underdog going into New Orleans. Typically, early kickoffs are bad for west coast teams, but the Seahawks have been a rare exception to the data, winning 9 of their last 10 games in those situations, including this past Sunday’s win over the Lions. New Orleans also comes off a long roadie, at London. / I’ll repeat myself — “I keep on looking for a reason why the Saints are laying this many points to the Seahawks. I just don’t get it. I must be missing something.” Fuck it. Give me the Seahawks, in the first half and for the game.
My Picks: Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (First Half -120) — Risking $240 to win $200, Seattle Seahawks +5.5 (Full Game -110)) — Risking $220 to win $200
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Dolphins -3 (-115) O46 (-110) -175
Jets +3 (+105) U46 (-110) +145
Analysis: QB Tua Tagovailoa will be sidelined after suffering injuries in back-to-back weeks. That gives backup Teddy Bridgewater the job this week in a division road game at NYJ. Here’s a stat you won’t believe: Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS in his career (.667). That’s the best mark by ***any quarterback***(with at least 40 starts) in the Super Bowl era. I’m not sure there’s much of a dropoff with Bridgewater in this spot, as the Jets’ defense is vulnerable to the pass. / That said, the Jets at 2-2 are now more confident with QB prospect Zach Wilson healthy and starting again. He comes off a big win and the Jets could be dangerous home underdogs. Trouble is, Miami has dominated this series lately and the NJY have been dismal in divisional games in recent years. / Hence, I think the best bet here is the OVER 46. Both pass defenses are bad, as the Dolphins’ secondary has allowed 300 YPG through the air (31st in the NFL). The Jets have also thrown the ball more than any other team, averaging 48 passes per game. Look for Wilson to pass early and often and Bridgewater to continue outperforming expectations.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins-New York Jets OVER 46 — Risking $220 to win $200
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Falcons +9 (-110) O47 (-110) +310
Buccaneers -9 (-110) U47 (-110) -400
Analysis: Who would have guessed after a full month of games, the Falcons would be playing against the Bucs in a battle for first place? Both NFC South teams are 2-2. Betting markets obviously aren’t paying enough attention to the NFL’s only perfect team versus the spread this season (Atlanta is 4-0 against the number). Despite their offensive consistency (8th-best in scoring), the Falcons are still getting a whopping +9 points. Let’s also keep in mind that Atlanta has played four games–all decided by 4 points or less. / As for the Buccaneers, they’re coming off a shellacking by Kansas City. Atlanta won’t pose as many threats, of course, but the Falcons’ rushing offense has been among the league’s best, averaging 169 YPG (note: Atlanta lost RB Cordarrelle Patterson to the IR last week). Since the Falcons aren’t falling behind in games and can run the ball for four full quarters, this balance has helped them be more competitive than was expected. / From the way Tampa Bay has performed so far, there’s nothing to indicate a blowout happening. This season has been a mess for the Bucs’ inconsistent offense, largely due to injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver. That’s made things uncharacteristically difficult for QB Tom Brady. Atlanta is 7-3-1 ATS on the road under head coach Arthur Smith. I see a closer game than the spread indicates.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons +9 — Risking $220 to win $200
cont'd......
If you like the analysis, please visit www.nolandalla.com. A shout out to Mad Jack for the forum and all his terrific service to the sports gambling community for the past 25 years.
Let's begin (Page 1/2)
2022 NFL Analysis and Picks — Final Report (Week 5)
2022 NFL WAGERING RECORD
32 Wins
19 Losses
Note: I’ll make a video on Friday and post it here (likely Friday night). Check back if you prefer to listen to the analysis and picks.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Note: Early Game in London)
Giants +8 (-110) O41 (-110) +300
Packers -8 (-110) U41 (-110) -375
Analysis: Two 3-1 teams meet in London for a 6:30 am start (PDT). Remarkably, of all the years the NFL has scheduled games over in London, this marks the first time in more than 20 years that two teams with winning records will play across the pond. Both teams have struggled at times this season, especially on offense, despite winning records. Green Bay (2-2 ATS) stank in the opener and failed to cover laying -9 last week hosting New England with a backup QB. / Meanwhile, let’s credit the NY Giants for overachieving big-time and winning “ugly,” if there’s such a thing in the NFL. Green Bay is the obvious choice to win because Aaron Rodgers is the standout talent on the field, but can they cover such a high number? The Packers failed in a similar sport last week and I see nothing here facing the Giants that inspires added confidence. / Taking the Giants (3-1 ATS) plus the points would be probably the correct side under normal circumstances. Add in the uncertainties of travel, a foreign atmosphere, etc., and getting more than a touchdown is even more tempting. I would not play this if the game was played in Green Bay. The London factor and the fact the NY Giants appear to still be underrated by betting markets make me want to take the underdog with the points. / The problem here with making this bet is the Giants’ fragile quarterback situation, which was uncertain (as of midweek). Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor both suffered injuries in last week’s game. Neither QB is very good when 100 percent healthy, so I can’t imagine how bad the numbers can get if they have some kind of injury (note 71 passing yards for the Giants vs. Bears last week, and they won!). / All of this is a long-winded lead into a strong lean on the UNDER, even at a low total of 41. The Giants have been an UNDER machine since mid-2020, going to the low 21-5-1 within that span. This week, they have major concerns with the passing game and are likely to run the ball even more heavily. Green Bay has some offensive concerns, as well — scoring just 75 points in four games, averaging an ugly 18 PPG which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The UNDER is the pick.
My Pick: New York Giants-Green Bay Packers UNDER 41 — Risking $220 to win $200
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Steelers +13.5 (-110) O46.5 (-110) +600
Bills -13.5 (-110) U46.5 (-110) -900
Analysis: What? Pittsburgh is getting +14? Didn’t the Steelers beat the Bills outright in this same stadium last season? / Many trends favor the disrespected Steelers getting a shitload of points in this game, but most of that data is old. This isn’t the Ben Roethlisberger era anymore. Since their opening week upset at Cincy, Pittsburgh has looked dreadfully worse in each game and now the confidence might be melting from the Mike Tomlin sideline (who to his credit has never suffered a losing season–likely to happen now in 2022). Also, consider a crazy historical footnote that Pittsburgh has not been an underdog of this magnitude since 1969. In fact, the Steelers are the only team since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to *never* be a 14-point (or higher) underdog. These are tough days for Steelers fans, and even worse times if you’re betting on Pittsburgh. / Let’s also acknowledge that Buffalo’s offense hasn’t looked very good the last two weeks, though the defense has been fine. They lost in Miami and came close to defeat last week at Baltimore. But the Bills are a very different team at home, often winning by blowing out bad teams. The Steelers now fit into that category. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in their five games in Orchard Park. They smell blood here and should get an easy win. With Josh Allen under center, the Bills are 10-4-2 ATS as favorites of 7+ points, and he is 6-2-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite — so Buffalo likes rolling up points against bad teams. / It’s rare for me to lay DDs in the NFL, but I’m tossing lots of chalk here. So long as the weather doesn’t take a strange turn in Buffalo this weekend (high winds, heavy rain), I think Buffalo rolls up the score after two lackluster offensive efforts and win the game by a large margin. IMPORTANT: Pass on -14. Play only a -13.5 with no weather factors.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills -13.5 — Laying $220 to win $200
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Chargers -2.5 (-120) O47.5 (-110) -145
Browns +2.5 (+100) U47.5 (-110) +120
Analysis: It’s tough to predict which two teams will show up. The Chargers at 2-2 have been a disappointment, especially on the defense which was supposed to be their biggest improvement. LA’s defense ranks 20th in the NFL in yards allowed, and that’s with Houston and Jacksonville on their early schedule. Just how much stock do we place in the Chargers’ easy win at Houston in Week 4 and might it be problematic in Week 5 to play a second-straight road game against a well-rested opponent? Cleveland has 10-days rest and remains at home, usually an attractive prospect for an underdog. However, the Browns are just 7-12 ATS at home under head coach Kevin Stefanski. After a patsy September schedule that included the awful Steelers, Jets, and Panthers (and the Falcons, marginal at best), this will be their toughest competition. / The Chargers might be worth a look laying -2.5. I’ll give this consideration nearing game time. But right now it ranks as a pass.
My Pick: No action.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Bears +7.5 (-110) O44 (-110) +260
Vikings -7.5 (-110) U44 (-110) -350
Analysis: After shocking the Packers in Week 1 in an almost perfectly-played game, Minnesota has now failed to cover in 3 straight contests. One reason for the downturn is the Vikings’ defense ranks 27th in the NFL in total yards allowed. So, any output from the Bears’ anemic offense is likely to be met with marginal resistance. Moreover, if Chicago’s defense can slow down the Vikings’ occasionally explosive passing attack, they not only will cover — but could even win outright. / There’s nothing about the Vikings I like as a bettor, and much of my bias starts with no trust in Cousin Kirk’s quarterbacking or leadership. Asking Minnesota to cover more than a TD is a prospect I almost never want to touch. Minnesota is a woeful 7-13 ATS as a favorite since 2020, even further proof this team doesn’t cover against outclassed opposition. Add some valid concern about the Vikings’ coming off the London trip last week, and that makes handicapping this week’s game even more difficult. Hence, this becomes a “bet Chicago or pass” decision. / What keeps me off the Bears is some equally stinky data. Chicago is just 4-12 ATS as a dog since the start of 2021. QB Justin Fields has spent more than a season now running for his life with a depleted offensive line with no skilled weapons to get the ball to and is a horrid 3-9 ATS as an underdog. The bears also have one of the worst passing games in recent memory–they’ve attempted only 67 passes overall in four games, the fewest by any NFL team in 39 years. Furthermore, I can’t possibly bet the Bears in a second straight road game after they got whacked last week by the Giants. I considered teasing the Vikings down to -1.5, which might be justifiable. But this team nearly lost to the Lions at home and probably should be 1-3. I have no trust in either team, so this is a pass.
My Pick: No action.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
Lions +3 (-115) O45.5 (-110) +145
Patriots -3 (-105) U45.5 (-110) -175
Analysis: Detroit is currently on one of the strangest runs in recent football memory. Their defense is all-time horribly bad, allowing an astounding 35 PPG in four games this season, which is a full touchdown worse than the 31st-ranked team. Yet, all the feisty Lions do is cover spreads (and lose). Detroit is 13-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Dan Campbell (including 11-2 ATS in the past 13 games as a dog). Detroit has also covered six straight road games, but it is 0-10-1 outright in its past 11 road games. What do we make of all this, just hold our noses and bet the Lions OVER every week? The trouble with that strategy is, the Patriots will be without QB Mac Jones once again, and they’ll likely call upon Bailey Zappe, who filled in for backup Brian Hoyer after he suffered an injury last week. Head coach Bill Belichick says he’s taking the quarterback position day by day, so he isn’t giving us a clue as to who might start. I’m not sure it really matters. / I have to take Detroit plus the FG under these unusual circumstances. The Lions have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points. And finally, the Lions face an offense that simply should not be an equal match. Getting points with a team that’s fighting in every game as the Lions have done is an attractive prospect. Give me Detroit, so long as I can get +3, and not +2.5.
My Pick: Detroit Lions +3 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
Seahawks +5.5 (-110) O46 (-110) +180
Saints -5.5 (-110) U46 (-110) -225
Analysis: I keep on looking for a reason why the Saints are laying this many points to the Seahawks. I just don’t get it. I must be missing something. Who can possibly bet on New Orleans right now? Their only win is an ugly Week 1 come-from-behind frantic victory (non-cover) against Atlanta, while they have dropped three straight games since. New Orleans has also been decimated by injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Floundering stepchild bust-out Andy Dalton started their Week 4 loss in London vs. Vikings in place of the “injured” Jameis Winston (yeah, right). / The home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be for the Saints. They’re 0-2 in the Superdome and have covered just 1 of their past 6 at home. Yes, sometimes a team is so desperate for a win that things come together with good coaching and extra motivation, but this doesn’t look like the opponent that rolls over and plays dead. / Just wow, let’s credit the 2-2 Seahawks whom nobody expected to be competitive. Seattle is 45-27-2 ATS as an underdog under head coach Pete Carroll, including 16-8-1 ATS in the past five seasons. So, he rises to the occasion against better competition. Let’s also hand it to much-maligned Geno Smith, who is a remarkable 23-15 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS in his last 12 starts, and 5-2 ATS with Seattle. / The Seahawks have shown a spark offensively over the past two games and despite that, they are still nearly a touchdown underdog going into New Orleans. Typically, early kickoffs are bad for west coast teams, but the Seahawks have been a rare exception to the data, winning 9 of their last 10 games in those situations, including this past Sunday’s win over the Lions. New Orleans also comes off a long roadie, at London. / I’ll repeat myself — “I keep on looking for a reason why the Saints are laying this many points to the Seahawks. I just don’t get it. I must be missing something.” Fuck it. Give me the Seahawks, in the first half and for the game.
My Picks: Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (First Half -120) — Risking $240 to win $200, Seattle Seahawks +5.5 (Full Game -110)) — Risking $220 to win $200
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Dolphins -3 (-115) O46 (-110) -175
Jets +3 (+105) U46 (-110) +145
Analysis: QB Tua Tagovailoa will be sidelined after suffering injuries in back-to-back weeks. That gives backup Teddy Bridgewater the job this week in a division road game at NYJ. Here’s a stat you won’t believe: Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS in his career (.667). That’s the best mark by ***any quarterback***(with at least 40 starts) in the Super Bowl era. I’m not sure there’s much of a dropoff with Bridgewater in this spot, as the Jets’ defense is vulnerable to the pass. / That said, the Jets at 2-2 are now more confident with QB prospect Zach Wilson healthy and starting again. He comes off a big win and the Jets could be dangerous home underdogs. Trouble is, Miami has dominated this series lately and the NJY have been dismal in divisional games in recent years. / Hence, I think the best bet here is the OVER 46. Both pass defenses are bad, as the Dolphins’ secondary has allowed 300 YPG through the air (31st in the NFL). The Jets have also thrown the ball more than any other team, averaging 48 passes per game. Look for Wilson to pass early and often and Bridgewater to continue outperforming expectations.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins-New York Jets OVER 46 — Risking $220 to win $200
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Falcons +9 (-110) O47 (-110) +310
Buccaneers -9 (-110) U47 (-110) -400
Analysis: Who would have guessed after a full month of games, the Falcons would be playing against the Bucs in a battle for first place? Both NFC South teams are 2-2. Betting markets obviously aren’t paying enough attention to the NFL’s only perfect team versus the spread this season (Atlanta is 4-0 against the number). Despite their offensive consistency (8th-best in scoring), the Falcons are still getting a whopping +9 points. Let’s also keep in mind that Atlanta has played four games–all decided by 4 points or less. / As for the Buccaneers, they’re coming off a shellacking by Kansas City. Atlanta won’t pose as many threats, of course, but the Falcons’ rushing offense has been among the league’s best, averaging 169 YPG (note: Atlanta lost RB Cordarrelle Patterson to the IR last week). Since the Falcons aren’t falling behind in games and can run the ball for four full quarters, this balance has helped them be more competitive than was expected. / From the way Tampa Bay has performed so far, there’s nothing to indicate a blowout happening. This season has been a mess for the Bucs’ inconsistent offense, largely due to injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver. That’s made things uncharacteristically difficult for QB Tom Brady. Atlanta is 7-3-1 ATS on the road under head coach Arthur Smith. I see a closer game than the spread indicates.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons +9 — Risking $220 to win $200
cont'd......
