NFL ats Meaningless Info

[buddy]

31 teams

each team has played 8 games

124 matchups

8 pushes

In 18 games, the ATS winner was determined by the pointspread.

[This message has been edited by buddy (edited 11-12-2001).]

 

[WHY ASK WHY?]

What did he say???

Why?

 

[phoenix566]

my local has told me on many occasion that the spread only comes into play about 15% of the time. i have never ran the numbers to check this but if your numbers are correct they seem to confirm this.....

 

[Padre]

If i understand him correctly, i would have to say that the ATS winners is about 100% determined by the pointspread. Hence Againest the Spread.

 

[WHY ASK WHY?]

Well..DUH...

Like saying the games are 60 minutes long.

BTW...are we watching good defense or bad offense?

WHY?

 

[phoenix566]

he is saying that the spread only came into play in 18 games. in all others if the favorite won they covered the spread and if the dog won, they won outright. don't know if this is true but that is how i interpreted the comment.

 

[buddy]

Game #1

Team A-10 versus Team B

Team A wins 1,000 to nuthin

Was the pointspread a factor?

Game #2

Team A-10 versus Team B

Team B wins 1,000 to nuthin

Was the pointspread a factor?

Game #3

Team A-10 versus Team B

In triple OT (which by the way lasted longer than 60 minutes), Team A kicks a field goal and wins the game 502-499. Despite the SU victory for Team A, the ATS winner was determined by the pointspread (which was Team B).

 

[PacMan]

So you're saying to always bet the over?

Just kidding.

That's not surprising though. I've also heard only 15% or so of games have the fave win and not cover.

Anyway, it's not meaningless info. Thanks for confirming it.

 

[GM]

Can't recall the last time I saw 1000 pts in a game, so I don't know what those examples have to do with reality.

The actual statistic, over the last 7 years, is 18.5% of the time a team has covered the spread but not won the game.

People dismiss this statistic and say "just pick the better team". Well if you do that you're taking the favorite most of the time, and you know what happens when you ride favs all the time....you lose.

18.5%...big deal, right? Less than one in five. Well if the favorite wins the game SU 65% of the time, it IS a big deal. That means the dog won SU 35% of the time, and covered the line an additional 18.5% of the time, for a 53.5% cover rate.

And those, roughly, are the stats. The 18.5% makes a HUGE difference.

 

[Boneinthehouse]

We've been here before. the only time the spread doesn't matter is when the dog wins!!!! In game one the spread does matter cause if the spread were 1001 team A doesn't cover--THE SPREAD MATTERS! game 2 It wouldn't matter what the spread was the dog is gong to cover when it wins. Game 3 is obvious, I think. The problem occurs when people feel the spread doesn't matter the favorites cover. When favorites win, the spread matters!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[phoenix566]

I think Buddy is trying to get at this:

If you just look at the game and pick the winner SU, only 15-18% of the time will you get screwed ATS.

Last nights winner was Balt. the spread was 2.5. The winner covered the spread. Therefore the 'spread' was essential a non-factor.

On Sunday, Miami as a dog won the game outright. THE WINNER 'COVERED' the spread as well. Once again the 'spread' was a non-factor.

On Sunday TB won 20-17 over Detroit. The spread was 5 points. The winner did NOT cover the spread.

The third example (TB) occurs ONLY 15-18% of the time.

Therefore, pick the winner of the game before ever looking at the spread! Once you have done this then you can decide if your 'winner' will fall into the 15-18% time of not covering their spread.

Is this correct Buddy?

 

[Boneinthehouse]

P566, NOW WE ARE GETTING TO SOME MEANING. THIS MAKES SENCE. I THINK ITS TOUGH TO HAVE SOMEONE BELIEVE THE SPREAD DOESN'T MATTER. ITS ALL ABOUT THE SPREAD UNTILL THE DOG WINS. BUT I SEE WHERE BUDDY IS COMING FROM AND WOULDN'T IT BE NICE IF YOU COULD JUST PICK WINNERS!!! THAT IS TOUGH ENOUGH!! LOL

 

[Valuist]

But, by lumping all spreads together, we're treating all games the same. Favorites of less than 3 are almost certain of covering if they win but double digit chalks have a fairly good shot at not covering should they win.

 

[count zero]

Between what GM and Valuist wrote, you have the truth. Each line is a separate case, and the fact that the spread hardly ever comes into play at -1 is irrelevant to games where the spread is -14 and comes into play relatively often. As GM points out, if you do the research you'll see that the seemingly small percentage of the time the spread comes into play is all that's needed to make you a loser if you try to handicap by just picking the SU winner.

By the way, picking the SU winner is no slam dunk either.