NFL Buys 2021

[RBD]

I'm mainly a college football guy, but I tried some things in the NFL here last year and came out okay at 18-10 in the regular season. Gave a little back with a 2-4 post season.

From last year's post:
"I do have one NFL system I use, the oldest one I have in any sport, dates back around 20 years, pops up 3-4 times per season. When it shows up, I make investment buys on it, not small $."

That play showed up six times, all spots posted, and went 4-2. I'll share it again this year. Based on years of past data I expect to get 4-5 plays again, and approximately a 67% W rate.

Same as in college, I'll track 5-6 NFL plays in my log book and post a few here, adding/subtracting different situational spots as they become useful or not.

Tonight's game does not qualify for any of my situational spots, so no recommended buys.
Sunday I have a few spots active.

CP has Den/NYG Ov, Cle/KC Un, Mia/NE Ov, Jax/Hou Ov, GB/NO Un

NP - TBD

C1 has LAC, Indy
C2 has Cin, Az, Mia, NYG
NOTE - C plays are spots I look to fade. With no data yet accumulated for 2021 I have no idea how these will go, so, caution and small wagers to begin with IF I buy any.

I'll be back with buys as I make them.

Good luck to all the Mad Jackers this season.

 

[RBD]

No buys week one, just charting data.

Records for the charted plays (using the same mnemonics as college plays, to keep things simple):


CP 2-3, Ov 1-2, Un 1-1

NP 1-0, Ov 1-0

OP 1-1, Ov 0-1, Un 1-0

C1 0-1, Dogs 0-1 (LAC game came off the chart due to line move)

C2 3-1, Dogs 3-1

C1 & C2 plays are fades, so good thing I didn't jump right in on week one as they went 3-2

Posting today for record keeping purposes only, and in case anyone is looking for angles on tonight's game.

Thursday:
CP has NYG/Wash Ov (this spot is 1-2)
C2 has NYG +3' (this spot is 3-1)

Sunday:
CP has Cin/Chi Ov
NP has Dal/SD Un
B has LAC, Az
C2 has Cin, Phil, Dal

I'll buy something this week, will post after I figure out which spot(s)

 

[RBD]

Record: 0-0
Still gathering data, small money plays today.

Should Cleveland be a hook-over-a-touchdown favorite today?
No.
One of my stats say they are.
That stat is 0-2.

Buys:
Chi + 7'
Indy/Tenn Ov 47

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Record: 0-2

And that's why I start slow, with small $.
Got some stats to use this week, hope they hold steady.
One early buy for now as the line is moving against me.
Week four so I only have limited data in, but I have two stats on this one, the first is 67%, the other is 84%.
Should have done my handicapping work yesterday, would have had Un @ 45.
There are a few 44' left, but 44 is now the common # most bettors can get so that's what I'll use here.


Buy:
Balt/Den Un 44

 

[RBD]

Buys:
Balt/Den Un 44
NYG/NO Un 44
Indy -3 (buy 1/2, -125)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1

Hit with Balt/Den Un, Indy. Had what looked to be a 3-0 sweep with NYG/NO Un 44 and just 14 pts at halftime, but lost when NY hit a game tying FG with 30 seconds left in the game, sending it into OT.
Still, I cut into my 0-2 start to the season, so all in all a good day.
Record: 2-3

Took last week off, nothing really stood out to me.

This week, an early buy, and here's why. From my first post this year:

"From last year's post - "I do have one NFL system I use, the oldest one I have in any sport, dates back around 20 years, pops up 3-4 times per season. That play showed up six times, all spots posted, and went 4-2. I'll share it again this year. Based on years of past data I expect to get 4-5 plays again, and approximately a 67% W rate."
First spot for 2021 is this week.

The opening +3 is now +4 all across the board. I don't think it goes up from here but ya never know, can't hurt to monitor it for now.

Buys: NE (wait to buy)

 

[Coach Woody]

Thanks RBD. I have not posted in awhile but always look to see what you have going on.

Your work is appreciated.

 

[RBD]

You're welcome Coach, good to hear from you.

UPDATE: the +4's are disappearing, grabbed one with NE.
Also, added another buy, took Ov 42 in Sea/Pit while they're still available.
The loss of Wilson doesn't concern me (other than the fact he was my QB1 in Fantasy and I'm F'd there.)
Geno looked okay last game, and with Seattle's defense as bad as they are (and with Ben off a good game/finding a little rhythm) Pete will have no choice but to be aggressive to keep up on the scoreboard.

Buys:
NE +4
Sea/Pit Ov 42

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
My best system got hit with a loss when genius Belichick had his rookie, turnover-prone quarterback throw an interception late in the 4th quarter when he should have been using the clock to protect his lead. The guy still thinks he has Brady at QB.
Still, getting four points in OT usually gets you a win, but . . . no.

Got a win with the Seattle game Over.

Record: 3-4

Today, the same system that had New England has the Redskins.
Missed out on the best number, I'm not sure if I trust them at current number, I lean towards putting them in a teaser.

Back with buys as soon as I make my final decisions.

Update:
Okay, I'm matching the Redskins up with the Belichicks. That F'er owes me one from last week.

Buys:
Wash +14'/NE -1

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-4

Got back to even-minus-juice last week.
Sometimes you use a teaser and lose anyway,
sometimes you use a teaser and win but didn't need the extra pts,
and sometimes you hit it just right, as in "I'm not sure if I trust the Redskins at the current number, I lean towards putting them in a teaser." So you take them to +14' and they lose by 14.

The play I used last week is now 0-2 this season, after NE lost in OT and the Redskins blew - what? - 3-4 end zone opportunities, including a few shots from within 5 yards?
I bring this up because it's active again this week, which is why I'm posting on Thursday - it involves tonight's game, a play AGAINST Az.
Usually I only see this situation 4 or 5 times per season (it was 4-2 posted here LY), and here we are, only in week eight and it already has three plays.

I like GB +6' in this spot, would like them a little more at +7. The line has been rising but I don't expect it to get to +7, books know what happens if they raise it that extra 1/2 pt. I don't usually buy points, but I might buy the hook tonight. Or I'll just take the 6'. Or, stick with what works and do the same as I did last week, tease them into double digits, if I see something interesting to match them up with (or just leave the 2nd spot open.)

Update - I did the write-up above then set it aside while I did some stat work and hunting. Made my decision - I'm going back to what worked last week, the teaser. Using my oldest and best (and pretty much only NFL spot) going AGAINST Az and pairing GB with . . . Detroit.
Yes, Detroit.
0-7 Detroit.
I'm sort of breaking one of my Cardinal rules here - "Never bet on a shitty team and expect them to play well." But I don't expect them to play well. I just expect them to be not as shitty as Philly.

Yes, Det is 0-7 but they've played one of the toughest schedules in the league.
Yes, they're a mess in almost every aspect of the game, but I watched the Vegas/Phil game and the Eagles are every bit as dysfunctional as the Lions.

After the release of Flacco earlier this week the whispers of "Minshew should be the QB" have started, and that can't help the locker room atmosphere or Jalen's confidence.

Math-wise, getting 10 or > pts Det is 5-2; laying 10 or > Philly is 1-6.
I like those #'s.

I'm using the Loser Boy Lions getting double digits in a home game I think they can win straight up.

Buys:

GB +13/Det +10 (-130)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 4-5
Had a play in the only system I use in NFL, one of the oldest ones I have in any sport, and took a loss because I used it in a teaser instead of on its own.
Same play is active today. It was 0-2 going into the play against Az two weeks ago, 1-2 now, with a play Against Tennessee.

Buys:
NO +3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 5-5

Didn't do much this past NFL season because I didn't have any edges from my systems as most balanced out at approx .500. I did a few buys for some playoffs/TV fun, using some Unders, dogs and T/O differential stuff.
Starting with two plays in the late game on Saturday.

Buys:
NE +4
NE/Buf Un 44