NFL buys for 2022

[RBD]

Record 0-0

I don't buy/recommend a lot of NFL plays, but I chart a few different situational plays, and when I think I have something strong I'll share it here.

I bought a prop for tonight: Den/Sea penalties Ov 10' -137.

A little on the pricey side but I like the stats.

The number, 10', is about avg for an NFL game, but this is week one, when early season inexperience (more so this year since many starters didn't play in the preseason) combines with opening game jitters to create a few more errors.

And . . . it's a nationally televised, stand alone game, which adds a little extra pressure on players because they know EVERYONE is watching me!

And . . . we have the Seattle home crowd noise, always good for an extra false start or two on the O line (and the crowd should be EXTRA LOUD tonight with Wilson returning.)

Looking at LY's #'s for Den & Sea (if you're into that sort of thing) you get a combined avg of 10' per game - the exact same # they hung on tonight's game. And having a rookie coach in Denver's Hackett can't hurt our chances.

With the extra added edges noted above, 10' is easily in reach.

And, for a little added incentive, there's this: Fifteen week one games already played, and . . . ten saw the # of penalties go over tonight's number.

That's 67%.
That's a buy for me.

Buys:

Den/Sea Ov 10' penalties

 

[rocky mountain]

From your lens, you are going to see 35 offensive holds tonight. Get your Zebras' jersey ready!:0corn

 

[Old School]

which houses offer this.....

 

[rocky mountain]

The referees are in post season form chucking flags like horseshoes. How does a refereee not have indirect wagers on over 10.5 , this would not be difficult to achieve.

 

[PappaGiorgio]

Nicely done RBD:toast:

 

[RBD]

Rocky, Old School, and Pappa G - THANKS for stopping by.
Old School - Sorry I didn't see your post earlier yesterday. I bought the wager at Heritage.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-0

Review: Needed Over 10'. Had 9 at halftime. Number landed on 17.
Denver covered the # all by themselves with 12 (Hackett seemed to be in a little over his head throughout the game, no?)
I usually bet, then post. Yesterday I bet, posted, and, proofreading my post convinced myself to add a little more on it.
If only they were all that clear to see . . .

 

[Old School]

https://www.nflpenalties.com/

week 1 results

I'll check Heritage harder this week...

missed that easy winner you shared

 

[RBD]

Old School,

I'm new to Heritage. Bason from our soccer forum turned me onto them because I was doing well 'capping on paper, but unable to find houses that offered the total on games I wanted to buy. He informed me that they have the widest selection of soccer totals, and was correct. But, their NFL props left a little to be desired last week.
Their game props for all week one games were mixed in with season long props, and lacked some of the most basic player props. It was only on my third visit there that I saw the penalty prop and grabbed it.

I like the penalty prop (good old 5Dimes had it all the time) because it's fun to have in your pocket when watching a game - you have action on every play.
Main reason I like it though is because it often offers good value.
And, when your bet is on the Over, blocking in the back on kickoffs and punts isn't so frustrating anymore (it still happens so much you'd think it was a new rule the players aren't used to.) You actually want to see it when you have the Over.


Looking at tonight's game, I have no buy, side or total, or prop, but I took a long look at the penalty prop again in case anyone is interested.

Tonight's # is 10' Ov -108, Un -122.

Last week, KC (usually a disciplined team I look to use Unders on) had only 3 penalties (combined total of 8 vs Az)
LAC had 5 (combined total of 8 vs LV)

Last season, KC avd'd 5.9 per game; LAC 6.8.

Last week's avg's would point to an Under.

Last year's avg's point to an Over.

So, which way to lean, last week or last year?
How about adding this to the equation - how did they do H2H in their two meetings LY?
At KC they combined for 14 (KC 6, LAC 8)
At LAC they had 9 (KC 4 LAC 5)
Not much help there, one game went Ov 10' (by 3) one stayed Un (by 1'.)

I have no recommendation for tonight's game, but hope to have one for Sunday, side, total, or prop.

 

[RBD]

Record: 1-0

What's a Flip-Flop Fav?
We'd make the lines, late Sunday afternoon.
We'd send the parlay cards to the printer on Monday morning so they could begin the setup process.
On Wednesday we'd have our last chance to change any lines before the cards were printed.
When a team went from Fav to Dog we had to send what was called a "Flip Flop Fav Notification" to the print shop, letting them know they needed to flip which side of the card the teams were on, and the line change reflecting the new number.

I may be off by a game or two (opening lines often differ from house to house) but I have FF Favs as 2-7 this season, meaning the new Fav has lost ATS 7 of 9 times.

Min and Buf are FF Favs this week.

Min flipped because of the QB situation, similar to the Dal/Cin game when the Cowboys lost Dak (Cincy went from openers of PK/+1/+2 to -7; lost SU 17-20.)
But that was going from a first string QB to second string QB, Mia is going from starter to third string. And . . . it's a rookie with zero NFL experience.

I'm not sure about Fading the FF Fav Min and taking Mia, despite the strong 7-2 stat, but I'm definitely fading the other FF Fav spot, Buffalo, and grabbing KC in what is one of the best match-ups of the season, one ya gotta have action on (NFL screwed up by not making this a prime time game, but nothing new there.)
It's sitting at +2' right now, likely won't get + a full FG, but no sense buying it now, can't hurt to wait, worse case ya get a +2.

And, in another game that you HAVE to have action on because it's sure to be one of the best of the year (coming to you from the same people who gifted us with the Colts/Denver edge-of-your-seat-excitement spectacular last week) I'm taking a masochistic "Lesser of Two Evils" play on Wash -1 (kidding, I actually have some stats I like on the play.)
Also Ov 11' penalties in this game. The # is tight, based on season avg's, I'm looking for 1-2 above that due to little edges provided by head coach/locker room kerfuffle in Wash (ANY diversion/distraction from the task at hand - winning this week's game - is bad news in the NFL), and playing in a prime time spot, and the short week of practice, plus the fact that both teams flat out stink.

Buys:
Wash -1
Ov 11' (-120) penalties Wash/Chi (@Heritage)
KC (wait to buy)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 2-1 (1-1 on props; 1-0 on sides/Fav

Hit with Wash (lucky though, how bad is Chicago in the red zone??!! Pit-i-ful as Jed C. would say.)
Missed with Un 11' penalties, as it landed on 11. Had one flag declined, one picked up, but what hurt was the missed PI call that they showed twice on replay as the announcers pointed it out.

Have KC left, waiting to buy. Adding one more that I have a few stats on that I like.

Buys:
KC (wait)
Cincy -1'