I've been in a slump over the last three weeks so you might want to tread carefully over these final three games of the season, if you're not already.
That slumped included losing my 4% total last week in a game that played out, yardage wise, just like I thought. The Packers gained 381 yards of total offense, while Philly gained 363 total yards. In a normal NFL football game, that would produce a final score of 25-24 in favor of GB. Using just the Packers and Eagles offensive and defensive numbers, it would have produced a final score of 24-25 in favor of Philly. I predicted the final yards to be 372-317 in favor of GB but the Packers missed on a key fourth and goal at the end of the first half, which would have forced the action and had us on our way. That's why they call it gambling and these types of things can happen. The one reason I didn't think it would be as easy as my first 4% play this year is because the defenses were better but I thought the offenses would perform well enough to overcome that.
Last week I talked about the home teams dominance in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, in terms of SU wins. After last weeks results, the home teams over the last 21 years have won at least two of the four games every year, and only four of those twenty-one years have they only won two, one of which was last week.
Last week also became only the fourth time in the last twenty-one seasons that the home teams have failed to at least break even against the spread. And it was a terrible week for the home teams, going 0-4 against the spread. I had warned you that New England and the Rams were not in good situations but even Philly, who was in a good situation, was in a terrible match-up, fundamentally. Even Kansas City and Philly, who were in great situations, failed to cover the spread. Just goes to show you need to look at these games from a fundamental and technical standpoint.
On to the Conference Championship games and my database for these games goes back to 1970, which was the first year after the NFL and AFL merged, and there is plenty of data to look at for these games. Coming into this year, there have been 66 games played in the CC since 1970. When the line is less than 10 points, the team winning the game is a perfect 54-0-2 ats. Essentially, whoever wins the game straight up also wins the game against the spread. That's especially relevant this week with the lines being so low. However, trying to predict the SU winner isn't always as easy as it may seem. But, it seems a safe bet to ignore the lines and just pick the SU winner.
There is one simple situation, which applies to this week's games. I list that situation as Strategy #26 in my book, The Unemotional Football Bettor, where the NFL strategies have gone 77-56-5 57.9% this year. Do a search at google.com for The Unemotional Football Bettor if you're looking for some great strategies to add to your NFL arsenal. I list every game played since 1970 with team stats, lines, scores, etc. for each of the 33 years of Conference Championship games.
Again, the strategy is so simple you will be tempted to dismiss it because of its simplicity but that would be a mistake. If, for the sake of discussion, we can accept that the better defense is the team who has allowed the fewest points during the regular season, we note that these teams over the last 33 years (66 games played) are now 46-18-2 71.90% against the spread. That's a sample of 66 games and producing nearly 72% winners. That's good. This same situation went 2-0 last year, including picking Tampa Bay, a team many said had no chance of winning that game. They showed defense wins these games. Over those 33 years, only four years has the better defensive team gone 0-2 against the spread (one other year they went 0-1-1), and 17 years where they have gone 2-0. So, over the last 33 years, five times the better defensive team would have produced a losing day (15.2%), 17 times you would have gone 2-0 (51.5%) and 11 times (33%) you would have broke even (minus the juice). You have a 3-1 advantage of winning over losing by simply playing these teams, which are New England and Philadelphia.
Let's look at some specific examples of this defensive situation. Over each of those four 0-2 seasons, at least one team was an underdog. There have been ten years where both teams with the better defense were favored in the Championship game. Over those ten seasons, those teams have gone 2-0 for that year six times, gone 1-1 three times and gone 0-1-1 only once. So, of the four seasons where the better defensive team went 0-2, it has never occurred when both teams have been favored. And six times the better defensive teams have both been home favorites. They have gone 2-0 four times, 1-1 once and 0-1-1 once. Home teams as the better defensive team are 29-10-1 while the better defensive road team is 17-8-1. Favorites are 27-8-1 and dogs are 19-10-1. If the favorite has two or more regular season net wins (New England 14 versus 12), they are 17-2 against the spread. My suggestion for this weekend it to rely on a situation that is simple, makes sense, and in my opinion, gives you the best chance to win money.
Last point on the CC games. Home teams overall are 43-23 SU and 36-28-2 ats over the last 33 years. In only two of the 33 years have the home teams gone 0-2 SU and both of those years saw at least one home dog in those games and in 1997 both teams were home dogs. During the first 21 years of the CC game, the home teams never went 0-2 ats but five of the last 12 years have seen the home team go 0-2 ats. But, remember, the important stat here is the points allowed situation, which I referred to above and those are the numbers to rely on this weekend.
All side opinions went 2-2 last week and are now 139-114-9 55% over the first nineteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
That slumped included losing my 4% total last week in a game that played out, yardage wise, just like I thought. The Packers gained 381 yards of total offense, while Philly gained 363 total yards. In a normal NFL football game, that would produce a final score of 25-24 in favor of GB. Using just the Packers and Eagles offensive and defensive numbers, it would have produced a final score of 24-25 in favor of Philly. I predicted the final yards to be 372-317 in favor of GB but the Packers missed on a key fourth and goal at the end of the first half, which would have forced the action and had us on our way. That's why they call it gambling and these types of things can happen. The one reason I didn't think it would be as easy as my first 4% play this year is because the defenses were better but I thought the offenses would perform well enough to overcome that.
Last week I talked about the home teams dominance in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, in terms of SU wins. After last weeks results, the home teams over the last 21 years have won at least two of the four games every year, and only four of those twenty-one years have they only won two, one of which was last week.
Last week also became only the fourth time in the last twenty-one seasons that the home teams have failed to at least break even against the spread. And it was a terrible week for the home teams, going 0-4 against the spread. I had warned you that New England and the Rams were not in good situations but even Philly, who was in a good situation, was in a terrible match-up, fundamentally. Even Kansas City and Philly, who were in great situations, failed to cover the spread. Just goes to show you need to look at these games from a fundamental and technical standpoint.
On to the Conference Championship games and my database for these games goes back to 1970, which was the first year after the NFL and AFL merged, and there is plenty of data to look at for these games. Coming into this year, there have been 66 games played in the CC since 1970. When the line is less than 10 points, the team winning the game is a perfect 54-0-2 ats. Essentially, whoever wins the game straight up also wins the game against the spread. That's especially relevant this week with the lines being so low. However, trying to predict the SU winner isn't always as easy as it may seem. But, it seems a safe bet to ignore the lines and just pick the SU winner.
There is one simple situation, which applies to this week's games. I list that situation as Strategy #26 in my book, The Unemotional Football Bettor, where the NFL strategies have gone 77-56-5 57.9% this year. Do a search at google.com for The Unemotional Football Bettor if you're looking for some great strategies to add to your NFL arsenal. I list every game played since 1970 with team stats, lines, scores, etc. for each of the 33 years of Conference Championship games.
Again, the strategy is so simple you will be tempted to dismiss it because of its simplicity but that would be a mistake. If, for the sake of discussion, we can accept that the better defense is the team who has allowed the fewest points during the regular season, we note that these teams over the last 33 years (66 games played) are now 46-18-2 71.90% against the spread. That's a sample of 66 games and producing nearly 72% winners. That's good. This same situation went 2-0 last year, including picking Tampa Bay, a team many said had no chance of winning that game. They showed defense wins these games. Over those 33 years, only four years has the better defensive team gone 0-2 against the spread (one other year they went 0-1-1), and 17 years where they have gone 2-0. So, over the last 33 years, five times the better defensive team would have produced a losing day (15.2%), 17 times you would have gone 2-0 (51.5%) and 11 times (33%) you would have broke even (minus the juice). You have a 3-1 advantage of winning over losing by simply playing these teams, which are New England and Philadelphia.
Let's look at some specific examples of this defensive situation. Over each of those four 0-2 seasons, at least one team was an underdog. There have been ten years where both teams with the better defense were favored in the Championship game. Over those ten seasons, those teams have gone 2-0 for that year six times, gone 1-1 three times and gone 0-1-1 only once. So, of the four seasons where the better defensive team went 0-2, it has never occurred when both teams have been favored. And six times the better defensive teams have both been home favorites. They have gone 2-0 four times, 1-1 once and 0-1-1 once. Home teams as the better defensive team are 29-10-1 while the better defensive road team is 17-8-1. Favorites are 27-8-1 and dogs are 19-10-1. If the favorite has two or more regular season net wins (New England 14 versus 12), they are 17-2 against the spread. My suggestion for this weekend it to rely on a situation that is simple, makes sense, and in my opinion, gives you the best chance to win money.
Last point on the CC games. Home teams overall are 43-23 SU and 36-28-2 ats over the last 33 years. In only two of the 33 years have the home teams gone 0-2 SU and both of those years saw at least one home dog in those games and in 1997 both teams were home dogs. During the first 21 years of the CC game, the home teams never went 0-2 ats but five of the last 12 years have seen the home team go 0-2 ats. But, remember, the important stat here is the points allowed situation, which I referred to above and those are the numbers to rely on this weekend.
All side opinions went 2-2 last week and are now 139-114-9 55% over the first nineteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
