NFL defensive observation

[4bubba]

Aug 5

I have had an idea for awhile now that the additional teams may indeed effect the scoring.

In baseball, the addition of teams had "diluted" the teams of quality pitchers.
More teams meant less quality pitchers on each team, meant more runs scored.

In football, there has been two full teams added in the last couple of years, the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans. Thats an additional 90 players on the final roster and approx. 160 extra on the early preseason rosters.

I have always felt that the hardest position for an NFL team to fill with quality players is primarily corner backs and secondly, safetys.
You could "hide" a subpar offensive player by going to the strengths, but you cant hide a defensive player, especially a cornerback.
WRs are getting bigger, stronger, and faster. Its hard to find DBs that can cover them. Plus teams are frequently going to 3 and 4 WR sets so even more CBs are required.

In preseason, because of the dilution by more teams, 2nd, 3rd and 4th string DBs are just not up to the task.
That should mean more scoring in the preseason games and more OVERS than ever before.

I am not sure at this time if it will carry over to the regular season, but right now it appears it will.

This appears to be a perfect time for Spurrier, he has an abundance of cornerbacks and a pass-first offense.

 

[4bubba]

Aug 6

Another possibility in the preseason is OVER on artificial turf.

I feel the Rams and Redskins are now showing teams that the passing game is vital and needs to be practiced a lot in the preseason.

 

[4bubba]

Aug 7

One of the main reasons I have mentioned this is because in the past preseasons, I looked for UNDERS to bet. From now on I intend to look for OVERS instead.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Interesting observation, bubba. I happen to think the uptick in scoring thus far is more due to the teams playing each other in the regular season. Defense certainly is harder to play and I think coaches are playing extremely vanilla defenses against teams that they will face later in the season.

As a whole, especially in the regular season, I see scoring going down with more teams in the league. I believe that has been the case since 1995 but I don't have stats on it. The reason is quarterbacks. Having to find 40 plus quality quarterbacks (with injuries, platoons, etc.) is almost impossible. Same thing with having to find 180 quality starting pitchers in baseball. Just my opinon. GL.

 

[TheShrimp]

As a whole, especially in the regular season, I see scoring going down with more teams in the league. I believe that has been the case since 1995 but I don't have stats on it. The reason is quarterbacks. Having to find 40 plus quality quarterbacks (with injuries, platoons, etc.) is almost impossible. Same thing with having to find 180 quality starting pitchers in baseball. Just my opinon. GL.

I think if you want to talk about a watered down position right now, look at offensive lines.

I see so little consistency on any team year to year, and these guys are a unit much more than individuals. Teams are dying for them. 5 went in the first round this year, 2 in the top ten. The Cowboys are (prob.) starting Andre Guroude (sp?) a second rounder.

If scoring is down, it could be natural variations, but it also could be O lines and QBs. I don't care who a QB is, if they are given time to throw, most of these guys in the NFL can hit their man. And O lines totally make or break the RB's; look at denver from the Davis--Anderson--Gary years. 3 diff. 1000 yd guys in a row.

JMO, too.

 

[djv]

You can count the quality OB in the NFL with your two hands. 10.
I mean the top. Mybe add 5 more knocking on the door. We need a year or two to see if scoring trends shows us anything. I do believe last year was about same as year before. Both up a tick from 1999. ??? Anyone got that number for sure. Im not gett-en up and going look-en for it. Lets see how amny unders we have by Sunday. Interesting thoughts Guys.