NFL Divisional Playoff Perspective

[Senor Capper]

Once again, after expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Since the Wild Card system began in 1970, only 10 wild card teams have advanced all the way to the Super Bowl. Of those, only six won the Super Bowl. And of those 10 wild card teams, only four teams managed to win three games on the road to make it to the Super Bowl - the last three of whom captured the crown.

In fact, five of the last seven Super Bowl champions have played in the first round of the playoffs, including the Baltimore Ravens last season.


Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? And speaking of top ranked teams, the No. 1 seed from the NFC has not won a Super Bowl since 1999.

It?s important to remember that 39 of the last 47 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top 10 ranked defense. (Are you listening Carolina, New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle?)

Remember, it?s not always the best team that wins in the NFL playoffs? it?s the hottest.

Before we crown anyone just yet, let?s first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy.

All results are since 1990 and are ATS (Against The Spread), unless noted otherwise.



Bye And Large Top Seeds Up To Speed

No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with an added week of rest.

For the most part these teams have met with modicum of success, going 67-25 SU and 48-42-2 ATS in this role.

The best the NFC has to offer has gone 37-9 SU and 28-17-1 ATS, including 22-8-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points.

The NFC spotlight shines on top-seeded Seattle this Saturday.

While not up to par with the NFC, top seeds from the AFC have gone 30-16 SU and 20-25-1 ATS, including 7-2 SU and ATS when facing a foe off a Wild Card round spread win of more than 17 points.

No. 1 seed Denver will look to improve on those numbers when they host division rival San Diego on Sunday.



Success Breeds Success

Speaking of the added benefit of an extra week to prepare this time of the year, rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.

That?s confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 32-6 SU and 24-13-1-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Divisional Round contests.

Denver, New England and Seattle all fit the bill this season, rather cautiously though as teams in this role are just 8-4 SU and 4-8 ATS the last seven years.

On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 4-24 SU and 11-16-1 ATS in this round, including 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS when playing off an upset, underdog win.

New Orleans and San Diego look to oblige this week.



Clint Eastwood Says

Here?s a brief capsule of this year?s Divisional Round combatants along with some relevant Good, Bad and Ugly trends?

New Orleans at Seattle

Good: Seahawks 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS home behind QB Russell Wilson
Bad: Saints 1-5 SUATS away all-time in the playoffs
Ugly: Seahawks 0-3 SUATS vs. Saints when New Orleans off SUATS win



Indianapolis at New England

Good: Colts QB Andrew Luck 6-1 SUATS as a dog vs. greater than .667 opp
Bad: Visiting team 5-13 ATS in Colts postseason games
Ugly: Pats QB Tom Brady 0-6 ATS playoffs w/rest vs. opp off BB wins



San Francisco at Carolina

Good: Niners QB Colin Kaepernick 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS away vs. non div opp
Bad: Playoff road favorites off playoff road favorite win are 1-3 ATS
Ugly: Niners are 3-15 ATS all-time vs. Panthers, 0-5 ATS last 5 away



San Diego at Denver

Good: Chargers QB Phillip Rivers 4-1 ATS as a playoff dog
Bad: Broncos 2-6 SUATS last 8 playoff games
Ugly: Broncos QB Peyton Manning 1-6 ATS home favorite vs. San Diego




Highway Blues

Life on the road for Wild Card teams who won at home has been rocky at best, especially if those who grabbed the cash as well.

These highwaymen are just 13-37 SU and 18-30-2 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.

And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road against .750 or les opponents, they dip to a filthy 3-24 SU and 8-18-1 ATS in these affairs.

Indianapolis will try its best to avoid becoming road kill this week.





Stat Of The Week

In NFL Divisional Round playoff game history since 1990, there have been only two home underdogs. They both won the game straight up.

 

[Senor Capper]

Divisional Playoff History

Divisional Playoff History





Divisional Playoff games have historically been the territory of home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), their dominance has not been especially pronounced in recent years. Indeed, since the 2004 postseason, road underdogs stand 23-16 against the number in the Division Round.


Remember some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round. Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts have been off a "bye" and a week of rest.

And almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round "bye" group, including 54 of the last 70 Super Bowl participants since '78 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced).

However, at least one top conference seed has met defeat in seven of the past eight seasons, including Denver in the AFC a year ago.

Also identifiable with this round are lopsided results, which have recurred with regularity over the decades. In fact, since 1975, more than half of these games have been decided by double-digit margins.

Favored teams laying a TD or more (usually representing the cream of the NFL crop) have covered at a 56% (42-33-1) in the Division Round since '75.


The strongest trend in recent years has been on the "totals" side, "overs" in particular, now 11-1 since the 2010 season playoffs (and 4-0 a year ago).


Following are the point-spread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975. Our "charting" begins with the '75 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.

A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.



CATEGORY RESULT

Favorites vs. line... 76-72-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up... 104-47
Favored by 0-3 points... 9-15-1
Favored by 31/2-61/2 points... 26-23-1
Favored by 7-91/2 points... 27-22
Favored by 10-131/2 points... 12-8
Favored by 14 points or more... 3-3-1
Home teams straight up... 107-45
Home teams vs. spread... 79-70-3
Home favorites vs. spread... 74-68-3
Home underdogs vs. spread... 4-2
Home picks vs. spread... 1-0
Over/under (since 1986...) 60-48



MARGINS OF VICTORY

1-3 points... 36
4-6 points... 12
7-10 points... 26
11-13 points... 12
14 points or more... 66

 

[Senor Capper]

Divisional Round Breakdown

Divisional Round Breakdown

There are only eight teams left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy.



No. 6 New Orleans Saints at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks
The Line: Seattle -8 (47.5)

The Seahawks won the first meeting of the year 34-7, and they still have only lost one game at home in the career of QB Russell Wilson. They've got four straight ATS wins against teams with a winning record at home, and they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 against teams with winning records. New Orleans did cover last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, but that ended a skid of six straight ATS losses away from home. New Orleans has gone just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 playoff games. The 'under' is 5-0 in New Orleans' last five road games, and it is 5-0 in Seattle's last five games played since their Week 12 bye.




No. 4 Indianapolis Colts at. No. 2 New England Patriots
The Line: New England -7.5 (53)

These two teams didn't meet this season, and this is the only matchup of the weekend where the two teams haven't squared off. Last season though, New England won 59-24 when these clubs met. There have only been two other teams in NFL history who have come back from down 24 points or more to win playoff games. The next week, those teams are 1-1 SU and ATS with extremely mixed results. The Buffalo Bills stormed into the AFC Championship Game after beating the Houston Oilers. The San Francisco 49ers collapsed and lost by 35 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Pats are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games, and they have played 10 of those 11 games here at Gillette Stadium (2-8 ATS). New England went 6-2 ATS this season at home. The 'under' has cashed in Indy's last six playoff games, but the 'over' is 44-18-1 in New England's last 63 games played on field turf. The 'over' is also 3-0-1 in New England's last four playoff games played in the Divisional Round of the postseason.




No. 5 San Francisco 49ers at No. 2 Carolina Panthers
The Line: San Francisco -1.5 (43)

The Panthers are the only home underdogs this weekend, and this game also represents the lowest 'total' of the week to boot. The Niners didn't score an offensive touchdown in a 10-9 loss at home to these Panthers earlier this year. Carolina has only been to the NFC Championship Game two other times in its history. San Fran has been there in consecutive seasons. The Panthers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Niners have won seven games in a row and are 4-2-1 ATS in those games. The 'under' is 8-1 in Carolina's last nine games, but the 'over' is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in this series.




No. 6 San Diego Chargers at No. 1 Denver Broncos
The Line: Denver -10 (54.5)

The Broncos are the biggest favorites of the weekend, and this one has the highest 'total' on the board even though both games this season were decided by one score and neither got into the 50s. San Diego is the only team to win in Denver this season. The Bolts have gone 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight against AFC West teams, but both the loss and the push came against San Diego. The 'under' is 6-2 in the Chargers' last eight games overall, while Denver has pushed four straight playoff games past the closing number.

 

[baby johnson]

my gut tells me:

NE-LIGHT (50)

DENVER-MEDIUM (100)

SEATTLE-BIG (150)

CAROLINA-BIGGEST (200)

luck to all

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Once again, after expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Since the Wild Card system began in 1970, only 10 wild card teams have advanced all the way to the Super Bowl. Of those, only six won the Super Bowl. And of those 10 wild card teams, only four teams managed to win three games on the road to make it to the Super Bowl - the last three of whom captured the crown.

In fact, five of the last seven Super Bowl champions have played in the first round of the playoffs, including the Baltimore Ravens last season.


Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? And speaking of top ranked teams, the No. 1 seed from the NFC has not won a Super Bowl since 1999.

It?s important to remember that 39 of the last 47 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top 10 ranked defense. (Are you listening Carolina, New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle?)

Remember, it?s not always the best team that wins in the NFL playoffs? it?s the hottest.

Before we crown anyone just yet, let?s first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy.

All results are since 1990 and are ATS (Against The Spread), unless noted otherwise.



Bye And Large Top Seeds Up To Speed

No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with an added week of rest.

For the most part these teams have met with modicum of success, going 67-25 SU and 48-42-2 ATS in this role.

The best the NFC has to offer has gone 37-9 SU and 28-17-1 ATS, including 22-8-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points.

The NFC spotlight shines on top-seeded Seattle this Saturday.

While not up to par with the NFC, top seeds from the AFC have gone 30-16 SU and 20-25-1 ATS, including 7-2 SU and ATS when facing a foe off a Wild Card round spread win of more than 17 points.

No. 1 seed Denver will look to improve on those numbers when they host division rival San Diego on Sunday.



Success Breeds Success

Speaking of the added benefit of an extra week to prepare this time of the year, rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.

That?s confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 32-6 SU and 24-13-1-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Divisional Round contests.

Denver, New England and Seattle all fit the bill this season, rather cautiously though as teams in this role are just 8-4 SU and 4-8 ATS the last seven years.

On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 4-24 SU and 11-16-1 ATS in this round, including 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS when playing off an upset, underdog win.

New Orleans and San Diego look to oblige this week.



Clint Eastwood Says

Here?s a brief capsule of this year?s Divisional Round combatants along with some relevant Good, Bad and Ugly trends?

New Orleans at Seattle

Good: Seahawks 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS home behind QB Russell Wilson
Bad: Saints 1-5 SUATS away all-time in the playoffs
Ugly: Seahawks 0-3 SUATS vs. Saints when New Orleans off SUATS win



Indianapolis at New England

Good: Colts QB Andrew Luck 6-1 SUATS as a dog vs. greater than .667 opp
Bad: Visiting team 5-13 ATS in Colts postseason games
Ugly: Pats QB Tom Brady 0-6 ATS playoffs w/rest vs. opp off BB wins



San Francisco at Carolina

Good: Niners QB Colin Kaepernick 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS away vs. non div opp
Bad: Playoff road favorites off playoff road favorite win are 1-3 ATS
Ugly: Niners are 3-15 ATS all-time vs. Panthers, 0-5 ATS last 5 away



San Diego at Denver

Good: Chargers QB Phillip Rivers 4-1 ATS as a playoff dog
Bad: Broncos 2-6 SUATS last 8 playoff games
Ugly: Broncos QB Peyton Manning 1-6 ATS home favorite vs. San Diego




Highway Blues

Life on the road for Wild Card teams who won at home has been rocky at best, especially if those who grabbed the cash as well.

These highwaymen are just 13-37 SU and 18-30-2 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.

And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road against .750 or les opponents, they dip to a filthy 3-24 SU and 8-18-1 ATS in these affairs.

Indianapolis will try its best to avoid becoming road kill this week.





Stat Of The Week

In NFL Divisional Round playoff game history since 1990, there have been only two home underdogs. They both won the game straight up.

Good stuff from Mark Lawrence, there, Senor!!

:0008

 

[Senor Capper]

He always has good reads, as does Mike Rose :toast: