NFL football bettors like offense, games take more OVER action

[Senor Capper]

So what do you prefer: offense or defense? Most casual bettors examining NFL picks like offense, which is why Monday night football games often take more action on the OVER.


There have been some terrific offensive football teams the last few years, such as USC and Texas in 2005, and pro passing attacks like the Rams, Colts, Dick Vermeil?s Chiefs, the 2007 Patriots and this year?s Saints, Chargers, Packers, Pats and even the surprising Bills.

However, name the last few Super Bowl winners? The Packers, Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Pats and Bucs. Last season under Dom Capers the Packers ranked fifth in total defense, fifth against the pass.

The team they beat in the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh, was second in total defense, No. 1 against the run. The team they beat in the AFC Championship game, the New York Jets, was built around its defense.

Defense still rules and is an important factor when assessing NFL picks. Defense, in all sports, doesn?t get the publicity that a flashy, exciting offense does, but there is so much truth in that age-old adage "Defense wins championships."

Pittsburgh won four Super Bowl titles in six years from 1975-80 with Hall-of-Famers Terry Bradshaw, Lynn Swann and Franco Harris on offense. But the cornerstone of that run was a defense for the ages led by L.C. Greenwood, Joe Greene, Mel Blount, and Jack Ham.

Four of the last eight Super Bowl champions had major deficiencies on offense, yet won with strong all-around defenses. The 2005 Steelers were 23rd in passing. Many laughed at the Baltimore Ravens in 2000 when they went five straight games without an offensive touchdown, but the Ravens laughed all the way to the Super Bowl, going 14-5-1 against the spread dominating with a ferocious defense.

All the champs were statistically very strong defensively, with the exception of the 2001, the 2006 Colts and the 2008 Saints.

In 2001, New England struggled early with injuries and new personnel, but in the second half the ?D? held their final nine opponents to 17 points or less.

Contrast those numbers with the offensive rankings of the last ten Super Bowl champs: The Ravens were 16th offensively, the Patriots 19th, Tampa Bay was 22nd, the 03? Pats were 17th, the ?04 Pats 7th, the Steelers 15th, the 2006 Colts third the Giants 16th, the 2008 Steelers 22nd, the 2009 Saints No. 1.

The Pats ended 2007 on a 1-8 ATS run, getting all that publicity on offense, while the Giants were 8-1 ATS. Offense may get all the TV highlights, but defense is still the key to football success.

Defensive rankings of the last 12 Super Bowl champions and their spread marks
Super Bowl Champs ATS Record Defensive Rank
1996 Packers: 12-6-1 ATS No. 1( 4th rush, 1st pass)
1997 Broncos: 13-7 ATS No. 5 (16th rush, 5th pass)
1998 Broncos: 12-7 ATS No. 11 (3rd rush, 25th pass)
1999 Rams: 14-4-1 ATS No. 6 (1st rush, 23rd pass)
2000 Ravens: 14-5-1 ATS No. 2 (1st rush, 9th pass)
2001 Patriots: 13-5-1 ATS No. 24 (18th rush, 24th pass)
2002 Bucs: 12-6 ATS No. 1 (6th rush, 1st pass)
2003 Patriots: 14-4-1 ATS No. 7 (3rd rush, 18th pass)
2004 Patriots: 13-5-1 ATS No. 9 (6th rush, 17th pass)
2005 Steelers: 13-7 ATS No. 4 (3rd rush, 16th pass)
2006 Colts: 12-8 ATS No. 15 (32nd rush, 3rd pass)
2007 Giants: 14-6 ATS No. 7 (8th rush, 11th pass)
2008 Steelers: 11-8 ATS No. 1 (2nd rush, 1st pass)
2009 Saints: 10-9 ATS No. 25 (21st rush, 26th pass)
2010 Packers: 12-8 ATS No. 5 (18st rush, 5th pass)

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL Football Chicago Bears are loaded with skill position talent

NFL Football Chicago Bears are loaded with skill position talent


This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 7.

Chicago Bears

Prior to the season, I read several reports indicating that the Chicago Bears didn?t have enough quick strike, big play ability on their roster. That has not proven to be the case ? this team is loaded with skill position talent.

Matt Forte is as dynamic as any back in the league these days. The receivers are a big play waiting to happen in Mike Martz?s vertical passing game offense. Jay Cutler hit six different receivers with his first seven completions. It?s not just Devin Hester either ? Roy Williams made a nice touchdown catch and Johnny Knox has some serious game-breaking speed.

This defense played as well as they have all year; blowing up the line of scrimmage and shutting down Tampa?s receivers in the secondary; notching four interceptions in the process. I was really impressed with this secondary today!

Chicago has basically been under-rated for the last two years.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have spent the entire season getting off to slow starts, and this was no exception. With LaGarrett Blount unable to suit up today and Earnest Graham going down with a first quarter injury, this was one of the rare games where running backs did matter. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had none.

Kregg Lumpkin, with 39 career rushing yards coming into the game, was a complete non-factor, forcing Josh Freeman to throw the ball on nearly every play.

The results were predictable. Freeman looked like he was regressing, suffering from bad footwork, poor accuracy and lousy decision making.

This Tampa-2 defense struggles against strong downfield passing games. The run defense was even worse. The lone defensive bright spot against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was Tenard Jackson in only his second game back on the field in over a year notching a beautiful interception.


Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Kolb is looking less and less like a legitimate NFL quarterback. He?s missing open receivers, holding the ball too long and not demonstrating any of the intangibles that might inspire confidence in his teammates. Intentional groundings in the end zone (resulting in an automatic safety) are not a positive for any offense.

These young cornerbacks are getting torched, week after week. Rookie Patrick Patterson had two pass interference calls on one Pittsburgh Steelers touch down drive. The equally inexperienced AJ Jefferson got burned on Mike Wallace?s 95 yard catch and run touch down.

We finally saw something positive from Beanie Wells against Pittsburgh. Then first round bust at running back left the game before halftime with yet another injury.

The Arizona Cardinals are 6-16 since Kurt Warner retired and look a long, long way from the squad that went to the Super Bowl just three years ago.


Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are getting good pressure with only a four or five man pass rush, not forced to rely on excessive blitzing in order to get hits on the opposing quarterback. They are scoring touchdowns in the red zone ? a Top 5 NFL football team in that department and another positive sign moving forward.

The Atlanta Falcons show a very impressive red zone defensive performance as well, not giving up many easy scores these days.

We saw an under-the-radar potential impact injury to the fullback Ovie Mughelli, who was helped off the field. Atlanta Falcons have a fullback driven running game and Mughelli was the only fullback on the roster.


Detroit Lions

The opposition was called for 14 false start penalties in the two NFL football games coming into this ballgame, and the crowd was a factor again today. The combination of the best defensive front in the NFL football and a suddenly strong home field has made it increasingly difficult for opposing teams to get their snaps off without a hitch.

These false start penalties matter and they?re not something that will be readily apparent from looking at a box score. Detroit Lions defensive front has ?Fearsome Foursome?, ?Steel Curtain? or ?Purple People Eater? capabilities ? quite possibly one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL football since those legendary units in the 70?s?

Detroit Lions defensive pressure caused both Matt Ryan interceptions, forcing him to throw too quickly. Too bad their offensive line is as weak as their defensive line is strong ? left tackle Jeff Backus continues to get eaten up. Matthew Stafford took back-to-back sacks on the Detroit Lions first drive and looks uncomfortable in the pocket. The red zone offense is struggling right now and Detroit is not converting on third downs.


Carolina Panthers

The run defense isn?t showing many signs of improvement. Facing a Washington offense missing half of its first string blockers due to injuries, Carolina Panthers got gashed all afternoon long. The Carolina Panthers have had eight different starting linebackers already this year, due to injuries and ineffectiveness.

Defensive penalties don?t seem to stop for this Carolina Panthers. This defense isn?t good enough to overcome those errors! They gave up a field goal on a drive where they had forced a punt, thanks to a silly personal foul call. Carolina Panthers had forced only five turnovers coming into the game.

Only three of Carolina?s 16 touch down drives have been less than 74 yards. Facing an inexperienced QB (John Beck), the ?D? forced three turnovers; without a doubt the difference in this ballgame.


St. Louis Rams

The Jags and Dolphins hold the pole position when it comes to the "worst team in the NFL" race, but the St. Louis Rams are certainly making it a three team race. The real disappointment here was their defensive performance. Of course this offense is going to struggle ? they?ve got a backup quarterback, an injury riddled line and a bottom tier receiving corps.

St. Louis Rams doesn?t have the worst red zone offense in the NFL football by accident, failing on another first and goal opportunity against Dallas. This offensive line isn?t going to get any better now that Jason Smith, the second overall draft pick in the first round back in 2009, was carted off the field.

The receiving corps should improve at some point, with Brandon Lloyd arriving in St. Louis Rams this past week and Mark Clayton almost ready to get activated. But this defense hasn?t been close to keeping St. Louis Rams within striking distance. Where?s the pass rush? I know the injuries and schedule have been tough ? their top three cornerbacks are all on IR ? but this is not a confident or a well-coached teams.

Seattle Seahawks

There?s a legitimate drop-off between starting QB Tavaris Jackson and his backup, Charlie Whitehurst. Jackson was hurt, unable to play this week, and a suspect offense looked even worse. Whitehurst had only one completion longer than 11 yards, and that came on a blown coverage.

The defense is looking really stout. Pete Carroll?s secondary was draped around the Browns receivers like a wet blanket ? no open receivers anywhere, all day, despite playing more than 80 defensive snaps and being on the field for nearly 43 minutes.

That pass defense will be challenged moving forward after starting CB Walter Thurmond broke his leg and expected out for the season.

 

[Senor Capper]

Each football season the betting bar is being lowered or raised

Each football season the betting bar is being lowered or raised



A cold hard number on each betting proposition based on a starting point has been the mantra of this "institution" we partake in for decades.

Each season the bar is being lowered or raised, on depending what side of the fence you are on. In college it is easier to conform and adjust your thoughts as big time schools get the pick of the litter.

Yes, occasionally we see major upsets, but truth being told the better college teams extend the lead as they just out muscle their opponents. In college we see what Arnie K. Lang once phrased as the "towel tossers" come into play.

We hit Halloween with teams that can?t compete and basically walk onto the field with good intentions but are almost immediately taken out of the game.

In the NFL football pros it should be different as the game in most cases should come back to the "number." We have started to see this is becoming more of a rule as opposed to an exception.

Take the NFL football game between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints on NFL football Sunday night. I don?t want to make much of one NFL football game but with the bulk of the NFL football season in front of them the cold hard number will be put to pasture for some these NFL football pro teams.

You will be paying a tariff even steeper than before on NFL football teams such as the Indianapolis Colts, St. Louis Rams and Miami Dolphins, which after yesterday?s "exhibition" against Denver Broncos might have the biggest adjustment.

The cold hard number that was -14 on the New Orleans Saints last night in a similar situation might open at 17. I am not trying to persuade anyone on their betting habits.

Let?s also see with Monday?s NFL football game showing the Baltimore Ravens opening at -8, bet up to -10 over the Jacksonville Jaguars and probably closing at 11.

So don?t forget to turn your clocks back this weekend, have some fun at the pumpkin patch and maybe hope the Indianapolis Colts, St. Louis Rams and Miami Dolphins dress up as a NFL football team this Sunday.