NFL Geek Week - trash your local computer freak

[RticXpress]

Now, I know there?s a bunch of you out there who don?t like computer Geeks. Well, I?m one of the Geekiest. And here?s your chance to express your outrage for Computer Geeks everywhere by dissing my computer generated NFL picks. As background, I run a bunch of computer models on the NFL and I blindly play those picks each Sunday (can you feel the hate building?). Be a red-blooded football guy/gal and strike back at computer Geeks everywhere by telling me to my face which picks you can?t stand. Here they are:

JAX-9,
MIA+6,
DAL+14
NE+12.5,
CIN+6.5
NO+3,
BAL+4,
BUF+3
TB-2.5,
ARZ+3.5

Yep, there IS 10 teams?if that?s not enough for you get a good sense of hate going, I really don?t know what is.

Now, please vote on EACH team like this:

5 ? this team sucks, no way in hell I'd play ?em
4 - don't like it, but not intense hate.
3 - on the fence
2 - like 'em sort of
1 - I would (reluctantly) bet this team

Again, please everyone vote on ALL 10 teams, but if you can't do that, at least tell me which one you hate the most.

BTW, the person you does the best at this little contest at the end of the season will get a free poster of Bill Gates...with a set of crosshairs painted on him.


[This message has been edited by RticXpress (edited 09-28-2001).]

 

[TEXAS]

Bill Gates made a statement one time saying that he had learned everything he needed to know about business by playing poker. So is he really a computer geek or just a savvy gambler who keeps gobbling up all of the chips.

 

[RticXpress]

Texas: How about this joke...

Want to know how to find Texas? Walk east (from California: God's country) until you smell cow crap (that's Oklahoma) and then walk south until you step in it...that's Texas.

...p!ssed? Express your displeasure! VOTE for the teams you hate the most above!!!


[This message has been edited by RticXpress (edited 09-28-2001).]

 

[pepin46]

rtic

don't demean it. it is the basis for handicapping, but you must eventually add the human/psychological aspect;
the "instinct" that makes you pick or disregard a game, not to mention the b....s to take a contrarian or unpopular side, even against the computer.

btw, why aren't you getting totals? these computer projections will give you some dandies every once in a while.

although not a comp. geek by any means, i had a simple database a couple of years ago that kicked a... the one thing i remember is that it did take a lot of work and i was always adjusting figures, which you must do when drastic changes occur with a team.

how do you adjust for baltimore's new offense, a brand new buffalo, a n.e. without bledsoe, etc. this is probably the reason you got a +4 for baltimore. not to say it is wrong, but i'll bet you are using long-running numbers for that forecast. even the prior confrontations, look at balt/cincy, where balt just dominated cincy at will last year.

what i remember the most is that just about every week, it gave me one or two "perfect" confrontations, teams where the projection on both sides were so off the line that they were a must bet. it did work about 75-80 percent of the time (technicals, divisional strategies, etc., killed the remainder). but no more, i am too busy to spend 50-60 hours a week on a hobby. my dinero comes from a business, not gambling.

many of us either passed or went against balt. did it make sense from facts and figures? no. did we detect a major change in both teams? yes, and in a very short time, something the computer can't do, as it will always be influenced by the longer term trend, and even the short term did not show convincingly that cinci could cover, much less upset.

what do you do with cincy and san diego, minny, even washington (although the trend started last year), the born again packers? adjust, and/or skip.

i won't get into each one, as they are well covered in the nolan thread, but suffice it to say that we all have a 50/50 chance of breaking even. just kidding. at first glance, i agree with about 5-6 of them (which doesn't mean anything).

may i suggest that you "filter" your computer picks even further, disregard teams that have made drastic changes, etc. be more selective, if your parameters are giving you 10 picks this week, they are probably too wide. tighten them to yield you 4 or 5 strong games each week.

also, i would really like to know how your computer yielded an arizona pick. from all i see, this is a contrarian pick, not anywhere near what precedent shows us, and no major changes in either team.

keep us posted on your project and good luck.


pep

 

[count zero]

Think this is a good idea. The guy wants to know how his picks do relative to the typical handicapper's gut reaction. Sounds like the right approach when your picks come out of a machine. How come nobody is helping out, it's just making a list, right? I'll break the ice, hope others will help out as well.

JAX 4
MIA 3
DAL 1
NWE 1
CIN 3
NOR 1
BAL 2
BUF 5
TAM 4
ARZ 3

Hope you'll post the consensus and how we did, Rtic.

 

[buddy]

The only play I'm totally against is baltimore +4. Shannahan, the Broncos, new stadium, home crowd versus last years super bowl champs who were humiliated last week by Cincinnatti. Baltimore is sick and any doctor in his right mind would not have prescribed Denver as a remedy.

 

[casper]

i'm game, being somewhat of a computer geek myself

JAX-9, 1
MIA+6, 3
DAL+14, 4
NE+12.5,1
CIN+6.5,2
NO+3, 4
BAL+4, 3
BUF+3, 1
TB-2.5, 2
ARZ+3.5,2

overall think they are ok. jack, ne, and buff and definate plays for me already. the others i'm not sure yet. the ones i graded as 2's are my leans thus far...3's are exactly what you said, on the fence. good luck

 

[RticXpress]

Pep: All that stuff is just too messy to bother with. Give me an equation to solve anytime as reading the USA Today to get the skinny on these teams is BORING.

Totals? What's that?

 

[MadJack]

JAX-4
MIA-4
DAL-2
NE-1
CIN-3
NO-4
BAL-2
BUF-1
TB-3
ARZ-1

 

[buddy]

JAX 2
mia 2
dal 5
NE 2
cin 2
nor 3
balt 4
BUF 3
tbay 2
ARIZ 3

 

[phoenix566]

JAX-3
MIA-1
DAL-4
NE-5
CIN-1
NO-1
BAL-3
BUF-2
TB-4
ARZ-5


I used '1' for teams I actually did play, although not reluctantly as your rating system suggests.

[This message has been edited by phoenix566 (edited 09-28-2001).]

 

[Buck]

First let me say that I'm happy to see AE and CZ on this site, let alone in this post. For those of you who don't know either of these two, pay attention. Except for maybe CZ's Rams under addiction.


JAX-9 4 (but I'm kind of a homer)
MIA+6, 3(if line moves back up, it's 1 or 2)
DAL+14 2
NE+12.5, 2 (waiting for more, but I'm anti Indy this year and paying for it)
CIN+6.5 1 (they STILL owe me for last year)
NO+3, 2
BAL+4, 1 (denver seems too obvious)
BUF+3 4 (people from Buff. call me to place bets against them, becuz their locals can't handle anymore.... but a 3pt swing)
TB-2.5, 2
ARZ+3.5 3

 

[Investment Executive]

is it week 3,2,4 for bumbers.....i call them that at this time of year......have a hard time realizing bumbers at this time of year(2 weeks).....


JAX-9, nil
MIA+6, nil
DAL+14 nil
NE+12.5, 2nd rank perception
CIN+6.5
NO+3,
BAL+4, 1st rank.....if you get 5.5,5,,,real......beauty
BUF+3 nil
TB-2.5, nil
ARZ+3.5 double nil


perception vs numbers:

baltimore:1

new england:1.5

no others, sorry at this time


maybe try canadian football at this time of the year...better suited to numbers......actually all the time ive found......

good luck w/ your picks

IE



[This message has been edited by Investment Executive (edited 09-29-2001).]

 

[Never Caught Up]

RticXpress,

In a force situation I would play every one of your picks except JAX and TAM. (favorites)

So far favorites are 20-7 for the regular season based on ACES GOLD contest lines. We are due for a correcting week.

There is no way I would lay points on any game this weekend, not even JAX.

That's just my two cents.

NCU

 

[RticXpress]

Looks like the "winner" so far is JAX with Tampa close (another site hated them too with JAX the runner up)

The sweetheart is Cincy and NE(!)...the other site liked Cincy too.

bet the farm on JAX and Tampa...