NFL Monday

[BobbyBlueChip]

Preseason Record 3-5-2 -5.7 units

The thing that stands out most in this game to me is :

Per IE's thread in the matchup forum

Miami Dolphins - QB Rotation: Jay Fielder, Ray Lucas, rookies Zak Kustok and Tim Levcik. Fiedler and Lucas are hurting and are game-time decisions to play. Either way, rookies Kustok and Levcik are likely to get most of the playing time.

Kustok never proved himself as a pro-style QB at Notre Dame or Northwestern, he's a leader and a good runner, but misdirection and running ability made him valuable in college. The Bucs go with Johnson, Johnson and King.

I would have thought that everybody would be on the Bucs causing the line move, but a look at the Consensus at a site I use shows


Visitor Wagers Line Home Wagers
Miami 29 +3 Tampa Bay 21
Miami 124 +3.5 Tampa Bay 88
Miami 46 +4 Tampa Bay 38
Consensus Miami 199 Tampa Bay

It's a pretty small sample, but 57% of the players are on Miami yet the line move favors Tampa.

Tampa -4 1 unit

 

[MadJack]

i guess this will be my first fb play of the year. it's one of my favorite bets when the consensus sites are heavy one way and the line goes the other way, but damn, i have to lay -5.

tb -5 for 5 units!

 

[acehistr8]

This line has ballooned to -6.

I am on the under at 32.5, do you guys still like this as much at -6?

 

[ferdville]

Quaterback Rotations

Dolphins - Jay Fielder, Ray Lucas, rookies Zak Kustok and Tim Levcik.
Fiedler and Lucas are both day to day and will be game time decisions
Kustok and Levcik are likely to get most of the playing time.

Buccaneers - Brad Johnson will play 1st quarter, Rob Johnson the 2nd,
Shaun King will play the entire 2nd half.

If this is the case, that is a big edge to Bucs.

 

[acehistr8]

There are still a couple of books hanging 3.5...

 

[MadJack]

i know nothing about the game at all. zilch.

what i DO know is; when the masses go one way and the line goes the other way, it's usually a nice solid bet. although.......it's usually a dog when this situation occurs.

 

[aldabra]

over small play

over small play

all those qbs for tampa bay, all that talk of new offense for miami..
looking at over 32...second half over lookin good too...glta
only fly in the ointment is next game very near for both.....

 

[gardenweasel]

jets-steelers replay

jets-steelers replay

this thing jumped from 4 to 6 in a heartbeat....looked at another site and all bucs there ,too......everything looks like an easy tampa cover(except dolphin dog spread record).....proceed with caution.

 

[acehistr8]

As I just posted in another thread, this game really illustrates why its important to shop around for lines. The books I mentioned this afternoon arent sponsors so I wont mention them by name, but two books kept 3.5 on their board throughout the afternoon.

SHOPPING CAN MAKE YOU MONEY!