NFL Picks

[Da_Insider]

BUFFALO BILLS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

LINE: JAX -9
O/U: 38 ?

Plain and simple in the four games that the Bills have lost this season. Against tough D?s, the Bills have scored 6 and 3 pts respectively against the Saints and the Steelmen. Against soft D?s, the Bills have racked up 26 and 36 pts respectively against the Colts and Jets.

This week the Bills will get QB Johnson and DE Hanson back from injuries (according to initial reports on Tuesday night). The Bills will take their offense into Jacksonville, who has given up almost 122 rushing yds per game in its first four games of this season. The Bills will counter with RB Henry, who ran for over 100 yds in their loss versus the Jets over a week ago. The time that the Bills had off will definitely help them this week. The Jags have not had a lot of success with their running game (without RB Taylor), averaging only 94 rushing yards per game, but will have a chance to build some momentum against the Bills rushing defense, who have given up 144 rushing yds per game.

The Jags are coming off two losses to the ever-improving Browns and Seahawks. The Jags defense must step up and take advantage of the Bills O-line, who have given up a total of 15 sacks this season. And you wonder why QB Johnson is having such a hard time, don?t get me wrong I?m not a huge fan of Rob Johnson either!

The keys to the game will be the Jags passing game and the Bills running game. If the Bills can establish the running game, QB Johnson will have better relief and time to work the passing game. The Bills D will also have to come up big, as it has given up an average of 32 pts per game in its first for games.

I see this game being a smash mouth ground pounder, with both teams trying to establish the run. The only way the Bills are going to protect QB Johnson is if he doesn?t have the ball and why not give it to RB Henry. I like the 9 pts the Bills are getting. Hopefully, they can get the running game going, so QB Johnson can use his arm.

Take the pts!

Pick: Bills +9


------------------
Bet With Your Wallet, Not With Your Heart.

 

[casper]

nice one insider, just what i was looking for (see my thread)

 

[lostinamerica]

Early Impressions:

I heard that there were 12 one possession games (8 points or less) last week- the first time since 1993 (and a not unexpected change in the trend for this season). I'll need to be sharper this week to expect any of that fourth quarter action to break my way this time.


KC(-2) vs. Ariz.

Why is that? Jumps out at me. Arizona should do well in this spot; Kansas City could surprise, but that is what it would be. And 23-17 seems like it would be a lot of points in a match up between these teams.

Phil vs. Giants (-3)

Giants should play very well off a mad dog mean loss, and if that is the case, a reversal from recent domination does not seem in order. Phil's off week after their loss would not seem to be a plus here. Won't this line go up?

Other Impressions:
(1) I'll take a look at Buff. That is a lot of points.
(2) Tampa will beat Pittsburgh. (this comes from someone that is always looking for and finding spots to go against the Bumblin' Bucs). They might even cover all those points, but I won't bet on it. Tampa keeps the game in order and it goes under the total?
(3)Tennessee (-6) over Detroit? I saw that earlier, and now I'd say I like it better than Buffalo. Maybe even better than Arizona.
(4) Baltimore gets it done against Cleveland. But Cleveland's best effort could find a way to keep it within the number.

In the next day or two I will comment on the Packers in the game match up threads. Otherwise, I'm already doing more posting than I thought I would, and will probably be an anxious spectator until I manage some success, or until next week.

I'll hang up now and listen to the answers.

 

[Da_Insider]

i see a possible hedge play here with the line at +9 and 38 1/2 by taking the bills and over. the only problem here is bills need to score 15pts for us to be safe, which means 3 possessions....???

any thoughts?

da insider.

------------------
Bet With Your Wallet, Not With Your Heart.

 

[Billy]

excellant analysis guys, keep it coming...

 

[Da_Insider]

i've never liked rob johnson, but thank you j. arian for the kick to win s/u!...

------------------
Bet With Your Wallet, Not With Your Heart.

 

[lostinamerica]

I missed a good thing on Thursday . . . Da_Insider had a good read on the Bills, and I knew the overrated Jax offense has trouble scoring points . . . unfortunately, a computer was not available while I was on the road and ready to make a play a couple of hours before game time . . . At least I wasn't watching the game to make matters worse.

COUNT ME IN:

(1) USC (pick) over ND @ 1 unit
My only college play was my only win in a 1-3-1 week last time out (not counting a 4 team parlay loser, too).

(2) Ariz (-2) over KC @ 2 units
I liked this game early in the week. The info and analysis on this Board has reinforced the pick. A good spot for Arizona to get it right at home.

(3)Tease Balt(-1.5)/NO(-1.5) @ 1 unit
I like both of these teams a lot to get the SU win.

(4) 4 team parlay @ 1 unit:
Ariz +2
Giants -3
Car -3.5
Tenn -5
Have to play something at 15-1 $$$$$. Betting against the pair of 0-5 Marty coaches, although I have lost enough confidence in my Tenn hunch to eliminate them as a regular play.

Will be on the Giants for 1-2 units on Monday.

Would like to have more plays for Sunday, and will probably do something small just for some action. Right now I am looking hardest at Indianapolis to crank it up