NFL Plays

[Nick Douglas]

Apologies for the lack of analysis today. Here are my plays, quick and dirty.


Miami +3 over INDIANAPOLIS 220/200

Miami +140 over INDIANAPOLIS 200/280

New Orleans +3 +100 over SAN FRANCISCO 200/200

New Orleans +135 over SAN FRANCISCO 200/270

ARIZONA +6.5 over Giants 220/200

ARIZONA +220 over Giants 200/440

SEATTLE +7 over Oakland 220/200

SEATTLE +225 over Oakland 200/450

 

[Super Idiota]

I like all your plays with the exception of Arizona. I don't think they are very good. The Giants will win!

 

[pepin46]

i have to get me an offshore with money lines. i like those numbers. would do them all except n.o., too low, too iffy.

also, agree in avoiding temptation with buff and san diego.

gl

pep

 

[pepin46]

like i said, these money lines make a lot of sense. very well selected games.

touchee, nick.


pep

 

[pepin46]

just to make a further point:

43% return (+710)on money at risk (1,660). in absolute w/l, nick was 4-3, so-so. even if he had overlooked seattle, he would have ended up with a 2-3, and some pocket change.

however, if we translate that into straight bets, you would have to go app. 6-2 (220 bets) to equal this performance (risk 1,660, 1,200 won, 440 lost=+760)

interesting, isn't it? nick only sweated 4 well selected games, as opposed to 8 sides and totals, when using conventional wagering methods.

my personal strategy would be to do only money lines, like if something goes wrong, the loss is only half. again, wise game selection is numero uno for any strategy.

maybe nick will comment on that; he certainly seems to know what he is doing.


pep

 

[Nick Douglas]

Pep,

This week moneylines hurt me a bit. Had I bet four games at $440 each, I would have turned a $760 profit rather than a $710 profit betting a total of $420 on each play ($220 spread, $200 moneyline). I guess you could dissect it all day but the bottom line is that playing moneylines cost me this week.

I love moneylines in hoops but I am just not so sure about the NFL yet. Seems like there are so many close games that playing the spread on dogs may be more worthwhile sometimes.

As far as playing less games, that is just my style. I honestly believe that almost all handicappers would have more success playing fewer plays. I know there are a good number of successful handicappers that make a ton of plays. I am not talking to them. I just know that the vast majority of gamblers lose and I think they would do better playing fewer games. Actually, what I have been doing is mainly just concentrating on the Ace's Gold contest. I try to find five games for the week and then just play them with a combination of spreads and moneylines.