NFL trend tips for Week 9

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INSIDE THE LINES: NFL Week 9

SPORTSADVISORS

Nov. 1, 2003



New York Giants vs. New York Jets
Giants: Have covered nine of their last 12 games against AFC foes.

Jets: Quarterback Chad Pennington is expected to make his first start of the season for New York (2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS). The Jets are on ATS runs of 9-1 at home off back-to-back road games, and 8-1-1 as a dog in the month of November.

Totals Tip: The Jets have stayed under the total in 11 of their last 14 games, including five of seven this season.



Jacksonville at Baltimore
Jaguars: The Jags (1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS) are on runs of 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road dog of five-or-more points. The underdog is on an ATS series' run of 10-2-3, and the last seven meetings have been decided by a combined 25 points.

Ravens: Are the only NFL team to have more rushing than passing yards this year. The Ravens (4-3 SU/ & ATS) are 22-1 SU and 18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 games against losing teams. Baltimore is also 19-8 ATS (2-0 this year) in its last 27 outings as a home chalk.

Totals Tip: Eleven of the series' 14 meetings have gone over, and the Jags have gone over in 12 of their last 14 games in November.


Oakland at Detroit
Raiders: A dismal 0-12 ATS this year if you include preseason games. But, the Raiders are on a 9-2 ATS roll against NFC foes, and have won and covered five of their last seven as an inter-conference favorite. Marques Tuiasosopo will start for Oakland (2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS) at quarterback in place of the injured Rich Gannon. The Silver and Black have covered the last four series' showdowns.

Lions: Have lost six straight since winning their season opener, averaging only 12.5 points a game during the skid. The Lions (1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS) have covered just eight of their last 28 versus AFC opponents.

Totals Tip: The Raiders have remained under the total in 15 of their last 21 games.



San Diego at Chicago
Chargers: Just 1-4 ATS off their last five Monday night appearances. But, the Chargers (1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS) are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 versus NFC squads.

Bears: A perfect 12-0 ATS in their last dozen home games against AFC foes. Chicago (2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS) is on a 10-3 ATS run in the second of back-to-back home games.

Totals Tip: The Chargers are 11-6 over in their last 17 games.



Indianapolis at Miami
Colts: Have won and covered their last six road games against non-division teams. But, Indy (6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS) has dropped four straight at the Vegas window against the Dolphins, and Peyton Manning's offense has averaged only 15 points a game in that stretch. Overall, the Colts are 3-8-1 ATS in the last dozen series' showdowns.

Dolphins: Will start Brian Griese at quarterback for the second straight game. Miami (4-2 SU and ATS) has covered four of its last five home games following a Monday night appearance. And the Dophins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine at home versus an opponent playing in revenge. They've also covered 13 of their last 15 as a home chalk in November.

Totals Tip: Miami has stayed under in six straight outings, and the Dolphins are 48-19 under in their last 67 home games. But, eight of the last 10 meetings in South Florida have gone over.



New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Saints: Won and covered both meetings with the Bucs last year and are now on a 7-3 ATS run in the series. New Orleans (3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS) has covered 10 of its last 12 division road games, and dog has scored the ATS win in eight of the last 11 series' showdowns.

Buccaneers: Are 4-3 SU & ATS on the year after blanking the Cowboys at home last week. Tampa Bay is on a 9-1 ATS run in the second of back-to-back home games, and has covered 12 of its last 16 at home when playing with revenge.



Washington at Dallas
Redskins: Had lost 10 in a row straight-up versus the Cowboys before beating them in the 2002 season finale. Washington (3-4 SU and 2-3-2 ATS) is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS against division foes under Steve Spurrier, but is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games coming off a bye week.

Cowboys: Have covered nine of their last 10 against Washington, and are on a 6-1 ATS run against losing teams. Dallas (5-2 SU & ATS) had won and covered five straight before last week's 16-0 loss at Tampa. Bill Parcells' coached teams are 18-9-1 ATS in the game after scoring less than 10 points.



Carolina at Houston
Panthers: Are on a 10-3 ATS road run, but catch the Texans in a classic sandwich situation, as Carolina is coming off an emotional overtime win at New Orleans with defending champ Tampa Bay on tap next weekend. But, the Panthers are on a 12-4-1 ATS run in the second of back-to-back road outings. Carolina (6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS) has scored the ATS win in six of its last seven non-division road games

Texans: Just 1-4 SU & ATS in their last five home games as coach Dom Capers prepares to face his former team. Houston (2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS) is only 1-6 ATS as a single-digit dog in its brief history.

Totals Tip: Houston has topped the total in six of seven games this season.



Cincinnati at Arizona
Bengals: Are favored on the road for the first time since the 2000 season when they won 24-13 as a four-point chalk at Arizona. The Bengals (3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS), who are on runs of 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS, have covered all three of their road games this year. Cincy, though, is on a 0-10 SU run following back-to-back wins.

Cardinals: Have just six sacks this year and are only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 as a home dog against AFC visitors. Arizona (2-5 SU & ATS) is on a 1-7 ATS run in the month of November against an opponent coming off a home game such as Cincinnati. The Cards, who have covered only 19 of their last 52 home games, have averaged only 12 points a game since their opening-week loss at Detroit.

Totals Tip: The Cards are 11-3 under in their last 14 home outings.



Pittsburgh at Seattle
Steelers: Begin a stretch where they will play three of their next four on the road. The Steelers (2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS) are on ATS runs of 10-3-1 as a road pup, and 5-1 as a dog versus teams from the NFC West. However, Bill Cower's Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS against Seattle.

Seahawks: Have failed to cover in five straight games. Seattle (5-2 SU and 2-5 ATS) is just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 as a November chalk. The club is 12-21-2 ATS overall when laying points since 1999. But, the Seahawks are on an ATS run of 7-3-1 following a straight-up road loss such as last Sunday's at Cincinnati.



Philadelphia at Atlanta
Eagles: Including last January's playoff win, the Eagles are on a 4-0-1 ATS run in this series. Philadelphia (4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS) has also covered nine of its last 12 as a road favorite, and five of its last six in the first of back-to-back road games. The Birds are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 on the road, beating the oddsmakers in two of three such situations this season.

Falcons: Dating back to last year, Atlanta (1-6 SU/ATS) has dropped 10 of 13 games straight up. The Falcons won and covered in their opener over Dallas, but have gone downhill since, losing six in a row straight-up and versus the oddsmakers. In their last five games, they've lost by margins of 21, 20, 13, 36 and 28 points. The Falcons have covered only twice in their last 13 when getting points at home.



St. Louis at San Francisco
Rams: Beat San Francisco 27-24 in overtime as a three-point home favorite in Week 2. The Rams (5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS) are on a 5-0-1 ATS run as running back Marshall Faulk is expected to be available for action off the bench this week. St. Louis is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games, including 1-6 in its last seven division outings. But, the favorite is on a 14-2-1 ATS run in this series.

49ers: Out-gained the Rams by more than 100 yards in the first meeting. San Francisco (3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS) gave up 221 yards rushing (4.5 yards per carry) in last week's abysmal loss to the Cardinals. With Jeff Garcia sidelined by a sprained ankle, Tim Rattay makes his first regular season start. The Niners are 2-1 ATS as a dog this year, upsetting Tampa Bay at home two Sundays ago.

Totals Tip: The last three series' showdowns have eclipsed the posted price.



Green Bay at Minnesota
Packers: Lost 30-25 at Lambeau Field to the Vikings in Week 1 as Brett Favre was interecepted four times. The Packers have dropped five straight at the Vegas window to their division rival. Green Bay (3-4 SU & ATS) is 6-2 ATS in its last eight coming off a bye. Favre has a quarterback rating of 107.4 in his last four games.

Vikings: Are on a 7-2 SU and ATS home run, and have covered seven of the last eight against avenging opponents. The Vikings (6-1 SU & ATS) have failed to cover in five straight before playing back-to-back road games.

Totals Tip: The last five meetings have gone over. Green Bay has topped the total in its last four outings, while Minnesota has gone over in 15 of its last 23.



New England at Denver
Patriots: Have failed to cover in each of their last 12 straight-up road losses. The Patriots (6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS) are on a 6-0-1 ATS run, and are 5-1 against the number in their last six as a Monday night dog. But, overall, the Monday night road has not been kind to the Pats as their 2-12 SU and 5-9 ATS records in front of the ABC cameras attests. New England has failed to cover in five straight against AFC West teams.

Broncos: Are on 4-0 ATS run at home before a bye, and are 16-5 ATS in the series, covering six of the last eight meetings. Denver (5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS) is on runs of 38-7 SU and 30-14 ATS when playing at home off a loss versus an opponent coming off a win. The Broncos are 16-8-1 SU at home in Monday night play, but only 9-15-1 ATS in those outings.

Totals Tip: The Pats have remained under the total in nine of their last 11 on the road. Denver has stayed under in all three of its home games this season.
 
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