NFL Week #1 Lines Out

[4bubba]

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Imperial Palace -- BETABLE NOW

Thur

IND
N E -3

Sun

JAX
BUF -4

DET
CHI -4

BAL -1.5
CLE

S D
HTN -3.5

TEN
MIA -3

SEA
N O -1.5

CIN
JETS -4

OAK
PIT -4.5

ARI
STL -9

T B
WAS -1

DAL
MIN -3.5

GIA
PHI -8 (UP FROM -7)

ATL -1.5
S F

K C
DEN -3

Mon

G B
CAR -1

 

[bjfinste]

Does Atlanta play Arizona or San Fran?

Just at a quick glance, Lions +4, Cowboys +3.5, Bengals +4 would all look tempting.

 

[4bubba]

My mistake -- I changed it.

Arizona plays @ STL

Atl is @ S F

 

[bej0101]

like miami -3 alot ..think fiedler will be the starter with added weapon in d.boston AND it seems as though the titans lost alot from past years ie. receivers and the freak..plus fish at home in september are nearly unbeatable and cover about 90% due to heat and humidity..i dislike the dolphins but this is a wonderful opportunity to start the season off with a big bang..also ,not worried about the front office chaos with this being the home season opener..

 

[Blackman]

Bej - I'd wait to see what happens with RW and all of this drug test talk before playing that line. Not saying it's not a strong play but if my the small chance he does get suspended you might be getting the 'Phins as a doggy for that one.

 

[ceciol]

Just for the hell of it... want to see how this comes out after Week 1...

IND
N E -3 *

JAX
BUF -4 *

DET *
CHI -4

BAL -1.5
CLE *

S D *
HTN -3.5

TEN
MIA -3 *

SEA *
N O -1.5

CIN *
JETS -4

OAK *
PIT -4.5

ARI *
STL -9

T B *
WAS -1

DAL *
MIN -3.5

GIA *
PHI -8 (UP FROM -7)

ATL -1.5 *
S F

K C
DEN -3 *

Mon

G B
CAR -1 *

 

[ELVIS]

why is pitt favored by so much ? neither team made the playoffs last year ? plaxico hold out ? i'll take the points.:shrug:

 

[4bubba]

Dont forget, the linemaker goes pretty much with two factors;

(and this follows especially since these two teams did play last year in the same site)

A) How bettors would have bet last year, before the game.

B) The results of the game

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/live/NFL_20031207_OAK@PIT

The Steelers KILLED the Raiders last year. Of course, who remembers that Mirer was the Raider QB.

Plus the Raiders lost all 8 away games last year.

I am sure the linemaker took into consideration the early pickups of the Raiders this year. Otherwise the line would have been closer to 7.

Plus RB Garner is gone and the Raiders have no quality RB. The Steelers have a very good defense against a one-dimensional offense, especially the run.

The Raiders have huge unknowns
--how healthy is Gannon?
--how long will it take for so many new players to be cohesive?

The Steelers are no bargain either. The also have no good RB. Their CBs are questionable at best, and the QB situation is close to blowing up.
The Raiders can only pass and the Steelers can only stop the run.

QB Maddox is still the lowest paid QB on the team. There will be a lot of pressure on the Steelers to start the #1 pick, QB Rothlesberger. However that would be a mistake worse than Ryan Leaf. He has only played against high school quality teams. he wont be ready for at least a year.

The Raiders owe QB Gannon 7+ million dollars this year and since he is coming off injury, the team might not pay it. They may sign Collins or Warner.

BTW, somrthing is up with Collins. He canceled a trip to the Packers. Could it be the Raiders????
Collins is good, but that adds another new face to the mix


I understand Steeler and Raiders fans are interested in this game, but for a neutral bettor standpoint, this game is just flipping a coin.

 

[4bubba]

Another example of how last years results and bettor habits factor into the #1 week line.

ARI
STL -9

Last year the Cardinals had four games on turf

@DET -- L 24-42
@STL -- L 13-37
@DAL -- L 7-24
@SEA -- L 10-28

Points for 54
Points against 131

Average loss by 20 points !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am actually surprised the line didn't open at -11. The linemaker knows that many people are going to tease this game down to -3.

 

[Vegas Dave]

This is where sports analysis can be thrown out the window.

I talk and write about sports through most of the offseason, but as soon as that -2.5 is set, bettors flock to it like a K-mart sale.

I always try to play contrarian, but when you include the other constituents such as trends, and opinions, by that point things get so confusing in my head I don't know which side the bookie wants you to take and which side I want to take.

The bookie's control the lines. They know where they want you to bet, and they know where you will bet before you even see the lines. They win a hell of a lot more than their "10%" which therefore means they know things that we do not know.

I try to ignore the lines, and I've got a simple system in place for my picks this year. 80% of the time the team that wins covers the spread, so ignore the magic line, and pick the winner.

 

[LEROY TIREBITER]

Well, way to early to lay $$$, but since it gets closer every day
and NFL is what I do, certainly not to early to have gut feelings,
NE vs Indy,,,,would'nt touch it..wti
Jags vs Buff,,,,love jags getting 4...$$$
Det vs Chi,,,3 pt game...take the 4
Bal vs Cleve,,,,wti
SD vs HTN,,,,SD is my go against all year...HTN$$$
Tenn vs Mia,,,,wti
Sea vs NO,,,wti
Cinn vs Jets,,,,love Cincy getting 4...$$$$
Oak vs Pitt,,,,wti
Ari vs Louie,,,,wti
TB vs Wash,,,,your guess as good as mine
Dal vs Minny,,,,ditto
Gia vs Philly,,,,too many points, 3-4 pt game, take the 8
Atl vs SF,,,wti
KC vs Den,,,,wti
GB vs Car,,,,wti
So, my early gut plays, Jags, Texans, Bungles,,,,leans, Det, NYG..