NFL week #1

moe777

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.....looking to match or beat last years 65-35 record.
.......here we go gl.......
BILLS +10.. laying 10 against a div rival on opening day is a little much i think.i know the pats have been a covering machine the last few years ,but i dont think they are as strong as they have been (doesnt mean the cant make it to the afc champ game these days)missing branch will hurt this team somewhat and i dont think their def has been improved that much..they do have the bills # the last 5 years but looking at what happend last year ,when the bills actually had something to play for they played a tough game and had a chance to win at new england 21-16 L(was a big game for the 3-3 pats also at the time)..maghee had 136..moulds had 125 and a td..the bills dominated and lost..in the 2nd game they played the bills were down & out and in a middle of a 5 game losing streak and were packing it in so it means nothing..i dont think the pats have improved and neither have the bills much except for the fact thay the had alot of injuries last year..i think a healthy bills def can keep this game within the spread .losman (if hes not a complete bust)with time to prepare for belicheks schemes may not be to confused and get the ball down field to a speedy evans who i think can get open against the pats def that will be trying to stop magahee.i think the bills have a chance here ,if not ill take the back door cover......23- 17.

LIONS +7 -125..earlier today when my buddy(typical square) picked seattle in his suicide pool (that i won and split 7500 with 10 others last year),i told him to becareful with that pick and try to pick one of the home faves ,he told me he would kiss my feet if seattle lost to the lions..........ANYWAY,seahawks laying chalk on the road is always a risky bet,theyve been bad on the road since i can remember,not to mention in the franchises greatest season (last year)they lost their 1st 2 road games..seattle will be just as good as last year i love the aqusition of peterson but he is hurting(like always)and do think alexander will start slowing down alot..their going back to where they lost the superbowl last year that may help em...detroit have definatly improved from last year and have won their last 3 openers with those horrible teams .their problems have been qb coaching and it seems that they always have lots of presure on them every year..kitnas not great but atleast hes had sucsess more than any other lions qb the last 10years..theyve had a few playmakers on offence but inept at what to do with them..in comes martz bad coach ,great offence of cordinater..warner =kitna..holt=roy w..kevin jones =falk..maybe not that last one but he does have potential.and they do play on turf..BTW martz is VERY familair with the hawks and has had lots of sucsess against them..last time kitna had a whole training camp as a starter he was very good with the bengals and a star was born (chad johnson)look for roy williams to become a superstar this year...its opening day and every bodys in 1st..and will be playing 100% homefield is big here for the once again new detroit lions and i think they have ashot to win this won..ill take the +7-125 just in case i need it ,to bring it up to 7 at that price its worth it.....24-23 LIONS gl.

BROWNS -3...2 teams that are on their way up,but i think the browns are a season ahead of the saints who are starting over ,the browns started over last year....i have a feeling drew breez will look more like culpepper did tonight against the steelers coming off the injury.mcallister will not be a factor either.to early for bush to carry the load.i like the browns def in this spot...i believe charlie fry will open up some eyes this year ,i think he will be agood qb,starting this year.he also has a few weapons to work with and this should be one of the weaker defences they will face this year...opening day at the pound against the aints is just what the doctor orderd for the browns. 4 out of their 6 wins were at home last year,this year theyve got the jets and saints at home the rest of their non div home schedule is denver ,chiefs and tampa ..they need this won ..23 -13 browns..gl..
 
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Statman02

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now that's a pretty nifty record LY.........don't think I have anything better than these.......so I'm in GL to us this week
 

Glenn Quagmire

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Agree with everything you said about the Hawks Moe. They struggle on the road and they REALLY struggle on the road when it's the first game of the season. And don't forget, losing that three hours is huge. It's like playing a game at 10 AM for them. Overall though you're right; they will be every bit as good as last year. They lost Hutch but they added Peterson and their young players have an extra year of experience. I think a lot of people will incorrectly underestimate them. Good luck on your games and HELLUVA season last year!
 

moe777

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wats up glen ..gl to everybody on the same side as me

DA BEARS -2 -160
really liked this play alot at 1st glance and wouldve layed the points up to 6(think it might get there by game time)but as we all know when it looks to good to be true ,it usually is.so im going to lay some juice here b/c i can see this game be 1 of those weird ones that dont cover a small line but win the game ..not much to analyze in this one. the packers suck .there is no way a broken down aman green can run against them and an improvising brett favre cant just heave the ball against this secondary (its not the raiders)with success..their def looked piss poor in the preseason,but the bears are not exactly the 89 49ers on offence either..everbodys on the bears and that scares me a little now that the public is officially off the packer (favre)bandwagon.grossman will lose his job eventually ,just hope its not b/c of what he does in this game,griese is the better qb here..the good thing here is that the bears will be very prepared and ready to go for this one, div rival at the tundra,lovie hates the pack and will have them ready and not overlooking this won...bears or nothing in this won im on the bears for reg play.
gl..
 

moe777

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GIANTS +3.5 -125
the ponys vs a physical def in their own park on national tv.the gmen have something to prove coming off a debacle at home against the panthers in their last game.they will be ready to go.
gmen have added some good players in the offseason and have improved.they will be able to get to manning and thats huge when playing the ponys.the ponys peaked last year and i believe they will falloff a bit.dont get me wrong,i still think they will be good just not as good as the last couple of seasons..giants d line is one of the best in the league this year.Arrington will revive his carreer here also.they also added some good corners.This d will be very strong this year.usi immynora killed walter jones(best olinemen in the league) last year as a rookie.strahan can still get it done with no double team on him..so i love the matchups in this game, and it helps its at home and nobodys talking about the dmen def...1st hf of the year manning looked great last year,if he can duplicate that form this year(i think he will) and on sunday night they will be just fine,maybe even win by double digits if the colts are not ready.this game should be a pk,3.5 is a gift ,am hitting this won hard for a opening week play.gl.
 

moe777

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recap

recap

BILLS +10 Medium

BEARS -2 -160 Medium

BROWNS -3 Large

LIONS +7 -125 BIGPLAY

GIANTS +3.5 -125 BIGPLAY
 

kcwolf

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gl Moe, looks like you are on a couple of strong Week 1 trends:

Play AGAINST a favorite by six points or fewer in game one when they won at least 13 games last season. Since, 1989 the league is 0-9 ATS in this situation failing to cover by an average of 9.5 pts.

Three games fall here this year.

Sea vs Det
Ind vs NYG
Den vs STL


Since 2001 in the NFL, teams that have played 5 preseason games
are 13-5 S/U and 13-2-3 ATS during Week #1 of the
regular season. Amazingly enough, the winner is 8-0-1 ATS.


Week 1 Plays: Oakland (winning team) and Philly.
 

moe777

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4-1 and a big play to go.nice start to the season.could be great $$ if the giants hit tonight.BIGPLAY..gl to all gmen backers.
only the browns let me down today(couldnt run the ball for chit)but they cashed in for me in the 2nd hf.
 

moe777

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Giants -1 2nd hf

a missed fg,a couple sure int's dropped..i think they win the 2nd hf and hopefully get the cover also..i knew the giants dline would get to manning,but im surprised at how well hes throwing the ball under pressure..gl
 

moe777

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good thing for 2nd hf plays,both my losses coverd the 2nd hf.
that giants game left a bad taste for me though.

5-2 to start the year..not taking anything tommorow night,except for maybe 2nd hf plays.
 
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