NFL Week 12

[Smitty]

happy thanksgiving, everyone!

buffalo/det over (54) 4 units after opening the season with 8 straight unders, buffalo can't stop anyone. they were actually outgained by cleveland. and who knows where their focus will be tomorrow, after flying to detroit on sunday, flying home to buffalo, flying back to detroit and, oh my, look at their upcoming schedule... 3 straight division games, starting with new england next thursday. detroit has gotta put up some points. and, let's face it, detroit's defense would give up points to a pop warner team. astute observers will note that the giants' offense is worse than a pop warner team. speaking of which....

nyg TT under (17.5) 2.5 units to win 2. maybe this is too easy, but unless dak throws 2 TAINTs, it's hard to imagine the gmen scoring more than 17 points.

ne/minn over (42).5 3 units. this is insane and i can offer no logical explanation. but somehow this game is going over the total.

very strong lean to detroit, but can't quite pull the trigger. with the exception of the season opener at LA (boy, that super-impressive win over the rams doesn't look so impressive now), every bills road game has been decided by 4 points or less.


sides 6-5 -4.7 units
ML 5-7 +4.5
totals 10-9 +3.5
props 1-0 +2.0

 

[Smitty]

atlanta TT under (17.5) 4 units. no kyle pitts, atlanta already relied on the run, now even more. washington is #2 in the league against the run, based on DVOA.
tennessee ML 4 units to win 4. all the talk about how cincinnati is right where they were last year... whatever. they are a mediocre team. tennessee continues to get zero respect. and they'll be out for revenge for last year's playoff loss.
den/car over (36) 2 units. absolutely insane.
nyj TT over (23.5) 3 units. the bears' defense is absolutely horrible. expect the jets' offense to respond to anyone other than zach wilson.


sides 6-5 -4.7 units
ML 5-7 +4.5
totals 11-11 -0.4
props 1-0 +2.0

 

[Smitty]

adding... GB (+6.5) 2.1 to win 2. philly is finally regressing to the mean. mostly in the turnover department, as they are -3 their last 2 games after starting +15 their first 8 games. and after a lethargic effort at houston, they lost to washington and damn near lost to indy.

leaning to the under, but may not pull the trigger. both teams have a good ground game, and neither is particularly good at stopping the run.

sides 6-5 -4.7 units
ML 5-8 +0.5
totals 13-12 +4.4
props 1-0 +2.0