Saturday early games
Cin/NE under (41.5) 8 units. winds of 24 mph with 47 mph gusts. I was already planning on betting this under. That clinched it.
NYG (+4) 2 units. yup, taking points from the vikings again.
Houston (ML) 4 units to win 5.8
Houston/Tenn under (35.5) 4 units. the wind won't be quite as disruptive in Nashville as in many other locations around the country, but that may not matter. Tennessee won at Houston earlier this year with Willis throwing for 55 yards. That's not a typo. Henry ran for 219 in a 17-10 win. No reason to expect a different game plan from Tennessee. Out of nowhere, Houston was VERY competitive with dallas and kc the last 2 weeks. Now they get a Titans team that has lost 4 straight. And while Ryan Tannehill is, well, Ryan Tannehill, he does offer more threat of the passing game than Malik Willis. It's hard to believe this change will make Tennessee any better. Tennessee still has the #1 run defense (per DVOA) and Houston sure isn't going to light up anyone through the air. Points are going to be at an absolute premium.
Baltimore (-6.5) 2 units. I can't believe i'm laying points with the ravens, but it's the only way i could bet against atlanta this week. specifically, desmond ridder. betting on the backup in his first start is usually a money-maker. after that... reality sets in. ridder won't be in the league long. i may only need 7 points from baltimore to cover this spread.
Dobbins over (63.5) rushing yards
Ridder over (30.5) rushing yards. another windy game. 15 mph with 30 mph gusts. with 2 teams that run the ball a lot anyway. dobbins has been great since his return, rushing for 120 and 125 and averaging 8 yards/carry. and the falcons need to see what ridder can do, which means they'll call a few extra pass plays. he'll tuck it and run.
