Will be traveling this week so posting early. Not sure if I will be able to get back and respond or not.
Happy Holidays to everyone!!
A 2-2 record last week plus a winner on the strong opinion total in the Philadelphia game. The last seven weeks have now produced a 33-18-3 65% record. And, the season record is still at 59%, so it?s remains a very strong season in the NFL.
All side opinions went 8-8 last week and are now 124-105-9 54% over the first sixteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it?s more important to look at each team?s last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
Many games this week mean absolutely nothing so some of the analysis will be brief in those games.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND ?8 Buffalo 33.5
My two losses last week were on Buffalo and against New England. Despite getting five interceptions and being +4 in the turnover ratio, NE probably deserved to cover that game (even though a successful two point conversion would have pushed the game) as they out gained the Jets 5.4 yppl to 4.4 yppl. As for Buffalo, their defense played just as I anticipated, allowing Miami just 169 total yards and 3.0 yppl. The problem for Buffalo, as it has been all year, was gaining just 177 total yards at 2.9 yppl and losing three fumbles and being ?2 in the turnover ratio, including a costly 74 yard interception return for a touchdown, which sealed the game. The Buffalo defense has played well all year long and well on the road as well, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The problem has been the offense, which has gained just 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl on the road and 4.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games overall. For NE, their defense continues to play just as well as Buffalo, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl at home and 4.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. On offense, NE has played worse at home but I think that?s probably a product of the weather and an aberration, rather than anything significant. Over their last five games, they are averaging 4.6 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but throwing the ball for 5.8 yps against 5.5 yps. Because NE can at least move the ball somewhat, compared to the Buffalo defense, that usually means they are getting better field position and allowing their defense to tee off on Buffalo and Drew Bledsoe. That is probably the difference in this game. Buffalo qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY) and they qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 239-168-14. NE qualifies in a last home game situation, which plays on good teams, which is 29-9. Final numbers favor NE by 8.5 points (all games), by four points (last five games) and by 9.5 points (home/away games). Final totals suggest 32 points (all games), 40 points (last five games) and 30 points (home/away games). I?ll lean with Buffalo because of the situations. NEW ENGLAND 19 BUFFALO 13
SAN FRANCISCO Pk Seattle 44
The Seattle boxscore from last week was pretty interesting, considering they won the game rather handily (although the cover was in doubt and Arizona probably deserved to cover) but Seattle was actually ?3 in the turnover ratio, which obviously helped Arizona stay in the game, cover wise. San Francisco played a terrific game, especially when you consider they lost Owens in the second quarter. SF out gained Philly 417 yards to 293 yards but the yards per play were even at 5.7 yppl for each team. SF sacked McNabb the second most times he has been sacked in a game this year, getting to him five times. It?s been well documented about the Seattle road woes. I played Seattle two weeks ago, when they were at St. Louis, but they were getting seven points. Seattle has been competitive in all but two of their road games, so getting seven was fine. But, they are a pick ?em in this game, which might be asking too much, especially against a 49er team who has played terrific at home this year and doesn?t appear to have quit. SF has too many young players playing for jobs and even Garcia is playing for his job as is Kevan Barlow. Throw out the game against Arizona and Seattle has allowed at least 27 points in every other road game this year (six games). Now, go the other way and note SF hasn?t allowed more than 17 points in any home game this year. So, if Seattle seems predetermined to allow at least 27 points and SF doesn?t allow more than 17 points, that?s going to make it awful hard for Seattle to win this game. Meanwhile, for SF, they have scored at least 24 points in all but one home game this year (six games). It certainly seems likely that SF will get at least 24-27 points in this game. Seattle has only scored more than 24 points in two road games and one of those games was against Arizona, which really doesn?t count. Seattle has played well in their last five games, gaining 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl, throwing for 6.1 yps against 5.7 yps, but that will play right into the hands of SF, who is allowing just 5.2 yppl against 5.6 yppl and 5.7 yps against 6.4 yps over their last five games. Going the other way, the SF offense is playing very well right now, averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, including running the ball for 5.1 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.7 yps. Seattle has played good rush defense lately, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.6 ypr but they are allowing 6.1 yps against 5.7 yps. Seattle qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 99-52-4 and plays against Seattle here. San Francisco also qualifies in a last home game situation, which is a 65-33-4 play. The 49ers also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-59-8. SF would also qualify in four more very profitable situations if they were to become a dog in this game. Final numbers suggest SF by 5.5 points (all games), three points (last five games) and by 13.5 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 305-230-11. That same situation played the under in the SF game last week and I ignored it because of the great situation I thought SF and Philly were in last week. This week, the numbers suggest a high scoring game, which is enough to keep me off the under, but I will still lean that way because SF has played so well at home on defense and Seattle has struggled some on the road. SAN FRANCISCO 27 SEATTLE 16
Philadelphia ?6.5 WASHINGTON 40.5
This game means an awful lot to Philadelphia as a win still gives them a shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A loss could cost them the division, which appeared to be theirs for the taking just a week ago. The Philly offense continues to roll, and they averaged 5.7 yppl in their loss last week. They are now averaging 6.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, which includes, running for 5.6 ypr against 4.4 ypr and throwing for 7.1 yps against 5.5 yps. For Washington, their defense has played better over their last five games, allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but their rush defense has been terrible, allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The Philly defense has been below average, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, including a staggering 5.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr. They allowed SF to rush for 209 yards at 5.1 ypr last week. Washington isn?t playing well on offense, averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. But, at home, they are averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and the passing game is, at least, respectable, averaging 5.6 yps against 5.8 yps. I don?t have any situations on either side in this game. Final numbers suggest Philly by three points (all games), by 5.5 points (last five games) and by 11.5 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in a total play, which is 77-42-2 (4-1 TY) and plays on the over in this game. Washington has played five teams this year that have poor rush defenses, and they have averaged 24 points (21 in three home games) in those games. Philadelphia has faced four poor rush defenses, and averaged 27 points per game in those games. The Philly offense has been on fire over their last six games, scoring 28, 33, 26, 36, 34 and 28 points. I just don?t see anyway they don?t get at least 28 points in this game. Like I said last week, their offense is so good right now, their defense gives up points just because. The average points scored in the NFL are 42 and we have two below average defenses and one above average offense. So, all we need here is an average scoring game, which we?ve normally seen in Philadelphia games as of late. Final numbers suggest 49 points (all games), 51 points (last five games) and 39 points (home/away games). I like the over in this game and will lean with Washington to stay within the number at home. PHILADELPHIA 28 WASHINGTON 24
Happy Holidays to everyone!!
A 2-2 record last week plus a winner on the strong opinion total in the Philadelphia game. The last seven weeks have now produced a 33-18-3 65% record. And, the season record is still at 59%, so it?s remains a very strong season in the NFL.
All side opinions went 8-8 last week and are now 124-105-9 54% over the first sixteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it?s more important to look at each team?s last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
Many games this week mean absolutely nothing so some of the analysis will be brief in those games.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND ?8 Buffalo 33.5
My two losses last week were on Buffalo and against New England. Despite getting five interceptions and being +4 in the turnover ratio, NE probably deserved to cover that game (even though a successful two point conversion would have pushed the game) as they out gained the Jets 5.4 yppl to 4.4 yppl. As for Buffalo, their defense played just as I anticipated, allowing Miami just 169 total yards and 3.0 yppl. The problem for Buffalo, as it has been all year, was gaining just 177 total yards at 2.9 yppl and losing three fumbles and being ?2 in the turnover ratio, including a costly 74 yard interception return for a touchdown, which sealed the game. The Buffalo defense has played well all year long and well on the road as well, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The problem has been the offense, which has gained just 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl on the road and 4.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games overall. For NE, their defense continues to play just as well as Buffalo, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl at home and 4.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. On offense, NE has played worse at home but I think that?s probably a product of the weather and an aberration, rather than anything significant. Over their last five games, they are averaging 4.6 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but throwing the ball for 5.8 yps against 5.5 yps. Because NE can at least move the ball somewhat, compared to the Buffalo defense, that usually means they are getting better field position and allowing their defense to tee off on Buffalo and Drew Bledsoe. That is probably the difference in this game. Buffalo qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 808-628-36 (39-32-4 TY) and they qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 239-168-14. NE qualifies in a last home game situation, which plays on good teams, which is 29-9. Final numbers favor NE by 8.5 points (all games), by four points (last five games) and by 9.5 points (home/away games). Final totals suggest 32 points (all games), 40 points (last five games) and 30 points (home/away games). I?ll lean with Buffalo because of the situations. NEW ENGLAND 19 BUFFALO 13
SAN FRANCISCO Pk Seattle 44
The Seattle boxscore from last week was pretty interesting, considering they won the game rather handily (although the cover was in doubt and Arizona probably deserved to cover) but Seattle was actually ?3 in the turnover ratio, which obviously helped Arizona stay in the game, cover wise. San Francisco played a terrific game, especially when you consider they lost Owens in the second quarter. SF out gained Philly 417 yards to 293 yards but the yards per play were even at 5.7 yppl for each team. SF sacked McNabb the second most times he has been sacked in a game this year, getting to him five times. It?s been well documented about the Seattle road woes. I played Seattle two weeks ago, when they were at St. Louis, but they were getting seven points. Seattle has been competitive in all but two of their road games, so getting seven was fine. But, they are a pick ?em in this game, which might be asking too much, especially against a 49er team who has played terrific at home this year and doesn?t appear to have quit. SF has too many young players playing for jobs and even Garcia is playing for his job as is Kevan Barlow. Throw out the game against Arizona and Seattle has allowed at least 27 points in every other road game this year (six games). Now, go the other way and note SF hasn?t allowed more than 17 points in any home game this year. So, if Seattle seems predetermined to allow at least 27 points and SF doesn?t allow more than 17 points, that?s going to make it awful hard for Seattle to win this game. Meanwhile, for SF, they have scored at least 24 points in all but one home game this year (six games). It certainly seems likely that SF will get at least 24-27 points in this game. Seattle has only scored more than 24 points in two road games and one of those games was against Arizona, which really doesn?t count. Seattle has played well in their last five games, gaining 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl, throwing for 6.1 yps against 5.7 yps, but that will play right into the hands of SF, who is allowing just 5.2 yppl against 5.6 yppl and 5.7 yps against 6.4 yps over their last five games. Going the other way, the SF offense is playing very well right now, averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, including running the ball for 5.1 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.7 yps. Seattle has played good rush defense lately, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.6 ypr but they are allowing 6.1 yps against 5.7 yps. Seattle qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 99-52-4 and plays against Seattle here. San Francisco also qualifies in a last home game situation, which is a 65-33-4 play. The 49ers also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-59-8. SF would also qualify in four more very profitable situations if they were to become a dog in this game. Final numbers suggest SF by 5.5 points (all games), three points (last five games) and by 13.5 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 305-230-11. That same situation played the under in the SF game last week and I ignored it because of the great situation I thought SF and Philly were in last week. This week, the numbers suggest a high scoring game, which is enough to keep me off the under, but I will still lean that way because SF has played so well at home on defense and Seattle has struggled some on the road. SAN FRANCISCO 27 SEATTLE 16
Philadelphia ?6.5 WASHINGTON 40.5
This game means an awful lot to Philadelphia as a win still gives them a shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A loss could cost them the division, which appeared to be theirs for the taking just a week ago. The Philly offense continues to roll, and they averaged 5.7 yppl in their loss last week. They are now averaging 6.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, which includes, running for 5.6 ypr against 4.4 ypr and throwing for 7.1 yps against 5.5 yps. For Washington, their defense has played better over their last five games, allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but their rush defense has been terrible, allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The Philly defense has been below average, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, including a staggering 5.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr. They allowed SF to rush for 209 yards at 5.1 ypr last week. Washington isn?t playing well on offense, averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. But, at home, they are averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and the passing game is, at least, respectable, averaging 5.6 yps against 5.8 yps. I don?t have any situations on either side in this game. Final numbers suggest Philly by three points (all games), by 5.5 points (last five games) and by 11.5 points (home/away games). This game also qualifies in a total play, which is 77-42-2 (4-1 TY) and plays on the over in this game. Washington has played five teams this year that have poor rush defenses, and they have averaged 24 points (21 in three home games) in those games. Philadelphia has faced four poor rush defenses, and averaged 27 points per game in those games. The Philly offense has been on fire over their last six games, scoring 28, 33, 26, 36, 34 and 28 points. I just don?t see anyway they don?t get at least 28 points in this game. Like I said last week, their offense is so good right now, their defense gives up points just because. The average points scored in the NFL are 42 and we have two below average defenses and one above average offense. So, all we need here is an average scoring game, which we?ve normally seen in Philadelphia games as of late. Final numbers suggest 49 points (all games), 51 points (last five games) and 39 points (home/away games). I like the over in this game and will lean with Washington to stay within the number at home. PHILADELPHIA 28 WASHINGTON 24
