Note: I posted the initial plays at my site last night and notice some of these lines have since moved -- most notably the SDI-PHILA total which dropped from 55 to 53. However, the late plays section has accurate lines as of this morning.
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD
8 WINS -- 5 LOSSES -- 1 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,660.
NET GAIN/LOSS: - 340.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 0--1--0
Beware of something called the "echo chamber." This is when everyone starts repeating "the obvious" to the point where reality gets lost.
How much did we hear last week how bad Oakland, Buffalo, San Diego etc. were going to be this season (which still might happen), only to see all three of those teams nearly win outright. What happens is -- ESPN and all the sports talk shows begin repeating themselves, "echoing the obvious" to the point where there's no value in following the popular line of thought.
This is one reason I've always been a contrarian. While all of us are "the public," that doesn't mean we follow public thinking.
In the long run, fading what the announcers and talk show hosts say is a pretty good strategy. Beware of what you hear in the echo chamber. A lot of it is garbage.
On to this week -- 13 plays, so far. Here are my preferred picks for NFL Week 2:
LATE ADDED PLAYS:
Dallas/Kanasas City FIRST HALF OVER 23 (-115).....$345 to win $300
St. Louis/Atlanta FIRST QUARTER Over 9.5 (-115).....$345 to win $300
Washington/Green Bay FIRST QUARTER OVER 9.5 (-115).....$440 to win $400
PROP: TOTAL PASING YARDS Eli Manning OVER 290.5 (-115).....$230 to win $200
Jacksonville/Oakland FIRST QUARTER OVER 7 (-125).....$375 to win $300
Seattle TEAM TOTAL OVER 23.5 (-120).....$360 to win $300
THIS WEEK'S EARLY PLAYS:
San Diego/Philadelphia GAME TOTAL UNDER 55.....$330 to win $300
San Diego TEAM TOTAL UNDER 24.5.....$575 to win $500 (-115)
This looks like a huge overreaction to what happened in Week 1, especially public perceptions of the hurry up Philadelphia offense. No doubt, coach Kelly is running a style unlike anything ever seen in Philadelphia before (80 offensive plays projected this week). However, several factors point to an UNDER here. First, both teams produced high scoring games at nighttime in Week 1. Now, here's a routine daytime start, which I think helps the UNDER (outdoor day games tend to be lower scoring). Factor in San Diego's cross-country trip and what for them is an early start, and I expect Chargers won't be quite in synch as playing at home last week. Chargers also get the benefit of looking at game film finally, since Kelly's offense was pretty much kept under wraps in pre-season. So, I'm expecting both teams to make some adjustments. For the "OVER 55" to cash, you really need both teams to produce points and I don't see the Chargers coming up with their share. Last week's early blowout allowed Eagles defense to coast in a prevent the second half. I doubt if that happens again, so look for San Diego to struggle putting up more than 24 points. I'll certainly take the inside of a key number on the Chargers team total. Assuming San Diego lands on around 20, that requires Eagles to post at least in the mid-30s. I'll fade that prospect this time around. Last week, just about everything went right for Philadelphia (including turnovers). It's too much to expect that to happen every week. Looks like a 31-17 type of game to me.
6-PT. TEASER -- Baltimore -1 / Chicago -.5.....$440 to win $400
Baltimore FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL OVER 12.5 (-115)....$440 to win $400
Ravens off a ten day rest versus much softer opponent and now at home should come prepared and win the game. Remember that Baltimore was beating Denver outright last week in the third quarter (showing good preparation with the new roster) before everything went sour. That tells me the nucleus of the team is still solid. I'll look for an OVER 12.5 for the Ravens in the 1H. Obviously, catching a win on the 13 is key. Contrast this with Browns offense which continues to struggle and shows no signs of being much of a threat to turn things around this week. Baltimore looks to b a solid tease-down team this week. Also of note -- Coach Harbaugh is a perfect 10-0 SU against Cleveland.....The other side of the teaser includes the Bears at home for a second straight week playing an opponent that's playing its second division road game in two weeks. Very tough spot for Minnesota, which will need 150+ yards from Peterson to have a chance. Chicago offensive line looks to be improved and teasing the favorite down to just win the game seems reasonable.
NY Giants FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL OVER 12.5 (-115).....$575 to win $500 <BEST BET>
NY Giants TEAM TOTAL OVER 25 (-120).....$360 to win $300
Despite six turnovers and a dismal running game, Giants still produced 31 points last week. Now at home in what amounts to a critical game, I think the well-coached Giants will rise to the occasion. QB Manning is going to set some team offensive passing records (watch), and I saw nothing in Week 1 to change that opinion. Giants consistently moved the ball and out-yarded Dallas by an average of 3 yards per play! This is a big play offense that will be much more focused this week at home. Add DB Bailey being out this week for Denver, and that should improve the scoring prospects for Giants. Very live dog here, which should move the ball in the first half. Catching a win on the 13 makes this a BEST BET. Naturally, if I think they reach 13+ for the 1H, it's almost mandatory to bet OVER 25 for the game, since a shootout could potentially force NYG to keep throwing the ball the entire game. Good offense (that should fix its RB problems this week), playing at home, motivated team, playing against a defense that is missing one of its most important defenders.
Detroit / Arizona GAME OVER 48....$440 to win $400
I have a bias for two things when betting OVERS -- experienced quarterbacks with good wideouts and games played in ideal conditions like domes and fields which favor speed. Arizona home games have produced a higher number of points that one might expect,, given their horrible quarterbacking in recent years. Now, with Palmer taking snaps after a solid debut last week, I expect Cards to produce some points. Arizona was shattered defensively by Rams last week and gets an even more dangerous offensive team this week, which I think points to a shootout. Last year, these teams (full of injuries) produced 48 points here in Phoenix in a late season game. Now healthier, I expect at least that number to be produced here in Week 2.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS (AND COMMENTS):
Green Bay +.5 (-110) vs. San Francisco FIRST QUARTER -- WON $300 (49ers continue to stink in the first quarter as a favorite)
Cincinnati TEAM TOTAL OVER 19.5 (-120) vs. Chicago -- WON $200 (easy win, Bengals total went OVER in 3Q)
NY Giants TEAM TOTAL OVER 23 (-125) vs. Dallas -- WON $300 (easy win -- despite 6 turnovers, Giants still hit 31)
Cincinnati / Chicago GAME OVER 41.5 -- WON $300 (total landed on 45)
Arizona / St. Louis GAME OVER 41 -- WON $300 (easy win, total landed on 51)
NY Giants / Dallas GAME OVER 48.5 -- WON $200 (another high-scoring NYG-DAL game, won easily landing on 67)
NY Giants +3 vs. Dallas FIRST HALF (-115) -- PUSH (lucky to push this one, since NYG had three 1H turnovers)
New England / Buffalo GAME UNDER 51 -- WON $500 (early scare, but still won landing on 41)
New England / Buffalo FIRST HALF UNDER 27 -- LOST $550 (terrible beat, late 1H turnover by QB Brady resulted in last-second gift TD for Bills)
Carolina +3.5 vs. Seattle GAME -- LOST $330 (fucking D. Williams cost us the cover with a fumble at the opponent 5 with 4 minutes to go -- dog shit player)
Carolina +.5 (-120) vs Seattle FIRST QUARTER -- WON $200 (nice win, game was scoreless at end of 1Q)
Washington -3.5 vs. Philadelphia GAME -- LOST $550 (atrocious experience watching this, Washington thoroughly dominated in every phase of the game)
6 PT. TEASER: Indianapolis -3.5 / Pittsburgh -1 -- LOST $550 to win $500 a (horrible bet, ruined by a gutless effort by Pittsburgh)
6 PT. TEASER: Indianapolis -3.5 / New England -3.5 -- (BEST BET) LOST $660 (brutally disappointing loss -- two big faves both nearly lost outright)
....................
PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS
DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) ----- Wagering $750 to win $600
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) ----- Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) ----- Wagering $575 to win $500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* ----- Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) ----- Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) ----- Wagering $440 to win $400
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) ----- Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) ----- Wagering $880 to win $800
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) -- Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000
.................
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD
98 WINS - 87 LOSSES - 6 PUSHES ----- (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: +$3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD
8 WINS -- 5 LOSSES -- 1 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,660.
NET GAIN/LOSS: - 340.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 0--1--0
Beware of something called the "echo chamber." This is when everyone starts repeating "the obvious" to the point where reality gets lost.
How much did we hear last week how bad Oakland, Buffalo, San Diego etc. were going to be this season (which still might happen), only to see all three of those teams nearly win outright. What happens is -- ESPN and all the sports talk shows begin repeating themselves, "echoing the obvious" to the point where there's no value in following the popular line of thought.
This is one reason I've always been a contrarian. While all of us are "the public," that doesn't mean we follow public thinking.
In the long run, fading what the announcers and talk show hosts say is a pretty good strategy. Beware of what you hear in the echo chamber. A lot of it is garbage.
On to this week -- 13 plays, so far. Here are my preferred picks for NFL Week 2:
LATE ADDED PLAYS:
Dallas/Kanasas City FIRST HALF OVER 23 (-115).....$345 to win $300
St. Louis/Atlanta FIRST QUARTER Over 9.5 (-115).....$345 to win $300
Washington/Green Bay FIRST QUARTER OVER 9.5 (-115).....$440 to win $400
PROP: TOTAL PASING YARDS Eli Manning OVER 290.5 (-115).....$230 to win $200
Jacksonville/Oakland FIRST QUARTER OVER 7 (-125).....$375 to win $300
Seattle TEAM TOTAL OVER 23.5 (-120).....$360 to win $300
THIS WEEK'S EARLY PLAYS:
San Diego/Philadelphia GAME TOTAL UNDER 55.....$330 to win $300
San Diego TEAM TOTAL UNDER 24.5.....$575 to win $500 (-115)
This looks like a huge overreaction to what happened in Week 1, especially public perceptions of the hurry up Philadelphia offense. No doubt, coach Kelly is running a style unlike anything ever seen in Philadelphia before (80 offensive plays projected this week). However, several factors point to an UNDER here. First, both teams produced high scoring games at nighttime in Week 1. Now, here's a routine daytime start, which I think helps the UNDER (outdoor day games tend to be lower scoring). Factor in San Diego's cross-country trip and what for them is an early start, and I expect Chargers won't be quite in synch as playing at home last week. Chargers also get the benefit of looking at game film finally, since Kelly's offense was pretty much kept under wraps in pre-season. So, I'm expecting both teams to make some adjustments. For the "OVER 55" to cash, you really need both teams to produce points and I don't see the Chargers coming up with their share. Last week's early blowout allowed Eagles defense to coast in a prevent the second half. I doubt if that happens again, so look for San Diego to struggle putting up more than 24 points. I'll certainly take the inside of a key number on the Chargers team total. Assuming San Diego lands on around 20, that requires Eagles to post at least in the mid-30s. I'll fade that prospect this time around. Last week, just about everything went right for Philadelphia (including turnovers). It's too much to expect that to happen every week. Looks like a 31-17 type of game to me.
6-PT. TEASER -- Baltimore -1 / Chicago -.5.....$440 to win $400
Baltimore FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL OVER 12.5 (-115)....$440 to win $400
Ravens off a ten day rest versus much softer opponent and now at home should come prepared and win the game. Remember that Baltimore was beating Denver outright last week in the third quarter (showing good preparation with the new roster) before everything went sour. That tells me the nucleus of the team is still solid. I'll look for an OVER 12.5 for the Ravens in the 1H. Obviously, catching a win on the 13 is key. Contrast this with Browns offense which continues to struggle and shows no signs of being much of a threat to turn things around this week. Baltimore looks to b a solid tease-down team this week. Also of note -- Coach Harbaugh is a perfect 10-0 SU against Cleveland.....The other side of the teaser includes the Bears at home for a second straight week playing an opponent that's playing its second division road game in two weeks. Very tough spot for Minnesota, which will need 150+ yards from Peterson to have a chance. Chicago offensive line looks to be improved and teasing the favorite down to just win the game seems reasonable.
NY Giants FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL OVER 12.5 (-115).....$575 to win $500 <BEST BET>
NY Giants TEAM TOTAL OVER 25 (-120).....$360 to win $300
Despite six turnovers and a dismal running game, Giants still produced 31 points last week. Now at home in what amounts to a critical game, I think the well-coached Giants will rise to the occasion. QB Manning is going to set some team offensive passing records (watch), and I saw nothing in Week 1 to change that opinion. Giants consistently moved the ball and out-yarded Dallas by an average of 3 yards per play! This is a big play offense that will be much more focused this week at home. Add DB Bailey being out this week for Denver, and that should improve the scoring prospects for Giants. Very live dog here, which should move the ball in the first half. Catching a win on the 13 makes this a BEST BET. Naturally, if I think they reach 13+ for the 1H, it's almost mandatory to bet OVER 25 for the game, since a shootout could potentially force NYG to keep throwing the ball the entire game. Good offense (that should fix its RB problems this week), playing at home, motivated team, playing against a defense that is missing one of its most important defenders.
Detroit / Arizona GAME OVER 48....$440 to win $400
I have a bias for two things when betting OVERS -- experienced quarterbacks with good wideouts and games played in ideal conditions like domes and fields which favor speed. Arizona home games have produced a higher number of points that one might expect,, given their horrible quarterbacking in recent years. Now, with Palmer taking snaps after a solid debut last week, I expect Cards to produce some points. Arizona was shattered defensively by Rams last week and gets an even more dangerous offensive team this week, which I think points to a shootout. Last year, these teams (full of injuries) produced 48 points here in Phoenix in a late season game. Now healthier, I expect at least that number to be produced here in Week 2.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS (AND COMMENTS):
Green Bay +.5 (-110) vs. San Francisco FIRST QUARTER -- WON $300 (49ers continue to stink in the first quarter as a favorite)
Cincinnati TEAM TOTAL OVER 19.5 (-120) vs. Chicago -- WON $200 (easy win, Bengals total went OVER in 3Q)
NY Giants TEAM TOTAL OVER 23 (-125) vs. Dallas -- WON $300 (easy win -- despite 6 turnovers, Giants still hit 31)
Cincinnati / Chicago GAME OVER 41.5 -- WON $300 (total landed on 45)
Arizona / St. Louis GAME OVER 41 -- WON $300 (easy win, total landed on 51)
NY Giants / Dallas GAME OVER 48.5 -- WON $200 (another high-scoring NYG-DAL game, won easily landing on 67)
NY Giants +3 vs. Dallas FIRST HALF (-115) -- PUSH (lucky to push this one, since NYG had three 1H turnovers)
New England / Buffalo GAME UNDER 51 -- WON $500 (early scare, but still won landing on 41)
New England / Buffalo FIRST HALF UNDER 27 -- LOST $550 (terrible beat, late 1H turnover by QB Brady resulted in last-second gift TD for Bills)
Carolina +3.5 vs. Seattle GAME -- LOST $330 (fucking D. Williams cost us the cover with a fumble at the opponent 5 with 4 minutes to go -- dog shit player)
Carolina +.5 (-120) vs Seattle FIRST QUARTER -- WON $200 (nice win, game was scoreless at end of 1Q)
Washington -3.5 vs. Philadelphia GAME -- LOST $550 (atrocious experience watching this, Washington thoroughly dominated in every phase of the game)
6 PT. TEASER: Indianapolis -3.5 / Pittsburgh -1 -- LOST $550 to win $500 a (horrible bet, ruined by a gutless effort by Pittsburgh)
6 PT. TEASER: Indianapolis -3.5 / New England -3.5 -- (BEST BET) LOST $660 (brutally disappointing loss -- two big faves both nearly lost outright)
....................
PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS
DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) ----- Wagering $750 to win $600
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) ----- Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) ----- Wagering $575 to win $500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* ----- Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) ----- Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) ----- Wagering $440 to win $400
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) ----- Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) ----- Wagering $880 to win $800
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) -- Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000
.................
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD
98 WINS - 87 LOSSES - 6 PUSHES ----- (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: +$3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0
