NFL WEEK THREE
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2004 NFL SEASON TO DATE
(includes pre-season and regular season)
WINS????????? 28
LOSSES???????.. 19
PUSH?????????.. 1
WIN PCT???????. 59.5
SIDES????????? 12--8--1
TOTALS???????? 6--3
HALF/QUARTERS??? 4--3
TEASERS???????. 1-1
HALFTIMES?????? 5--5
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WEEK 2 RESULTS: 12-6 on straight bets and 3-3 on halftimes ? for 15-9 overall.
ST LOUIS +1 (FIRST HALF) -- LOST
HOUSTON +3 -- LOST
HOUSTON +1.5 (FIRST HALF) -- LOST
JACKSONVILLE +3 -- WON
JAX / DENVER UNDER 40 -- WON
WASHINGTON -3 -- LOST
SEATTLE -2.5 -- WON
SAN DIEGO +3.5 -- LOST
INDIANAPOLIS +1 -- WON
MIAMI / CINCINNATI UNDER 39.5 -- WON
MIA +5.5 (game) -- WON
MIA +3 (1H) -- WON
MIA +.5 (1Q) -- WON
MIA +.5 (2Q) -- WON
MIA +.5 (3Q) -- LOST
MIA +.5 (4Q) -- WON
TEASER: INDY +7 / NEW -2 -- WON
PHILA -3 -- WON
HALFTIMES:
BALT/PITT ? LOST
CHI/GB ? WON
DEN/JAX ? WON
CAR/KC ? LOST
TB/SEA ? WON
TENN/INDY -- LOST
WEEK 3 PICKS:
TENNESEE -6
(posted Sunday night when line was TEN -6 at -110)
Comments: This is an early bet, before the line moves to -6.5 or perhaps even -7. I expect public will anticipate the Titans bouncing back this week. Titans have looked vulnerable defensively, but JAX offense has looked absolutely terrible first two games and doesn't have the consistency to exploit the Titans, especially on the road. JAX was outgained last week by a 2-1 margin and managed just SIX first downs! Six! That kind of offensive production won?t be enough to keep up with the Titans. Jags now have 20 first downs in two games and are averaging just 3.0 per carry rushing. Now the go on the road playing over their heads into one of the NFL?s toughest stadiums. Bad spot for JAX. Most who watched the INDY game must admit that Titans could very well have won the game, had it not been for a few breaks in the 4Q. Jags are in a very uncharacterisitc spot and won't go on the road and play with nearly as much urgency as the Titans, who are a legitimate playoff team primed for a blowout win. Titans faced a similar spot in Week 1 against a weak offense and covered easily versus Miami. This line should be at least -7, so I'm taking the great value here at -6.
DALLAS +3.5
(posted Monday night ? after seeing Hilton opening line at WAS -3.5)
Comments: I don?t understand this line. I can understand WAS at -3 perhaps, laying at least an extra juice price of -120, but the hook on the 3 is a huge gift to dog bettors. DALLAS enjoys several advantages in this matchup ? perhaps the most important of which is DAL being 6-0 ATS on the road at WAS the last six meetings. In those games, DAL has covered by a margin of nearly two TDs a game, so there is something that brings out the best in the Cowboys when they play at WAS. Last year, DAL won at WAS 27-0. It won?t be as easy this time, but the Cowboys enjoy an edge offensively, as the Cowboys are putting up huge passing numbers. WAS has faced two weak offenses in two games, and squeeked out a win versus TAMPA and lost badly at NYG. This is a tougher test, and here ? they have to lay over a FG. Redskins blew the game last week, committing SEVEN turnovers. That?s indicative of some remaining kinks in the new offensive system. DAL is 10-7-1 ATS under coach Parcells, and although it probably doesn?t mean much, Parcells has beaten Gibbs in last six matchups between these two teams. DAL has a slightly better team, has a proven history of beating the opponent, and finally IS GETTING +3.5 That?s enough for me to take the dog.
BALTIMORE -2.5
(posted Monday night ? when offshores have line at BALT -2.5)
Comments: What?s the saying? Fool me once, shame on you?.fool me TWICE, shame on me. The Ravens were in an INDENTICAL spot two weeks ago and got hammered versus Browns on the road, and here it?s deja all over again. However, this time, I think the Ravens will be much more focused and will be prepared to pick up a road win. I?m leaning on BALT for a couple of key reasons ? perhaps the most important of which is seeing new CIN QB Palmer getting flustered at home versus MIA last Sunday night. Now, he faces at least as solid a defense versus aggressive Ravens and could be in for a long day. Bengals managed just 14 first downs last week, and five of those came on the last drive. Furthermore, Palmer?s yards per completion was s dismal 2.7, one of the lowest numbers on record. If Palmer can?t throw the ball downfield, the Bengals will not win. CIN running game wasn?t much better, which averages just 3.5 per carry ? some of that in trash time versus NYJ in opener. Meanwhile, credit the Ravens defense for two strong performances ? averaging just 13 first downs in two games. At least one angle also points to BALT in this game: Ravens are 7-0 ATS in last seven meetings the week after facing PITT, covering in those games by an average of 8 points per game. BALT picked up an easy win last week, which should carry over here if history is any indication. If the Bengals couldn?t cover versus the horrific Dolphins a week ago, I don?t? see them breaking out here with a victory. Finally, the Bengals are a woeful 0-9 ATS in last nine games where they have faced a divisional opponent with an identical W-L record, losing by an average of 9 PPG. Both BALT and CINCY have 1-1 records. This angle can explained by opponents seeing an opportunity to separate themselves from the pack, against a soft opponent. If Kitna were the QB, I wouldn?t lay this number, but I think it could be a long day for the still-developing Palmer. I?m also not fooled by Bengals defensive effort last week ? that came against an offensive line that was awful. Ravens won?t be as soft. Lay a comfortable number, while it?s at -2.5
MORE GAMES AND WRTE-UPS TO COME
*********************************
2004 NFL SEASON TO DATE
(includes pre-season and regular season)
WINS????????? 28
LOSSES???????.. 19
PUSH?????????.. 1
WIN PCT???????. 59.5
SIDES????????? 12--8--1
TOTALS???????? 6--3
HALF/QUARTERS??? 4--3
TEASERS???????. 1-1
HALFTIMES?????? 5--5
**********************************
WEEK 2 RESULTS: 12-6 on straight bets and 3-3 on halftimes ? for 15-9 overall.
ST LOUIS +1 (FIRST HALF) -- LOST
HOUSTON +3 -- LOST
HOUSTON +1.5 (FIRST HALF) -- LOST
JACKSONVILLE +3 -- WON
JAX / DENVER UNDER 40 -- WON
WASHINGTON -3 -- LOST
SEATTLE -2.5 -- WON
SAN DIEGO +3.5 -- LOST
INDIANAPOLIS +1 -- WON
MIAMI / CINCINNATI UNDER 39.5 -- WON
MIA +5.5 (game) -- WON
MIA +3 (1H) -- WON
MIA +.5 (1Q) -- WON
MIA +.5 (2Q) -- WON
MIA +.5 (3Q) -- LOST
MIA +.5 (4Q) -- WON
TEASER: INDY +7 / NEW -2 -- WON
PHILA -3 -- WON
HALFTIMES:
BALT/PITT ? LOST
CHI/GB ? WON
DEN/JAX ? WON
CAR/KC ? LOST
TB/SEA ? WON
TENN/INDY -- LOST
WEEK 3 PICKS:
TENNESEE -6
(posted Sunday night when line was TEN -6 at -110)
Comments: This is an early bet, before the line moves to -6.5 or perhaps even -7. I expect public will anticipate the Titans bouncing back this week. Titans have looked vulnerable defensively, but JAX offense has looked absolutely terrible first two games and doesn't have the consistency to exploit the Titans, especially on the road. JAX was outgained last week by a 2-1 margin and managed just SIX first downs! Six! That kind of offensive production won?t be enough to keep up with the Titans. Jags now have 20 first downs in two games and are averaging just 3.0 per carry rushing. Now the go on the road playing over their heads into one of the NFL?s toughest stadiums. Bad spot for JAX. Most who watched the INDY game must admit that Titans could very well have won the game, had it not been for a few breaks in the 4Q. Jags are in a very uncharacterisitc spot and won't go on the road and play with nearly as much urgency as the Titans, who are a legitimate playoff team primed for a blowout win. Titans faced a similar spot in Week 1 against a weak offense and covered easily versus Miami. This line should be at least -7, so I'm taking the great value here at -6.
DALLAS +3.5
(posted Monday night ? after seeing Hilton opening line at WAS -3.5)
Comments: I don?t understand this line. I can understand WAS at -3 perhaps, laying at least an extra juice price of -120, but the hook on the 3 is a huge gift to dog bettors. DALLAS enjoys several advantages in this matchup ? perhaps the most important of which is DAL being 6-0 ATS on the road at WAS the last six meetings. In those games, DAL has covered by a margin of nearly two TDs a game, so there is something that brings out the best in the Cowboys when they play at WAS. Last year, DAL won at WAS 27-0. It won?t be as easy this time, but the Cowboys enjoy an edge offensively, as the Cowboys are putting up huge passing numbers. WAS has faced two weak offenses in two games, and squeeked out a win versus TAMPA and lost badly at NYG. This is a tougher test, and here ? they have to lay over a FG. Redskins blew the game last week, committing SEVEN turnovers. That?s indicative of some remaining kinks in the new offensive system. DAL is 10-7-1 ATS under coach Parcells, and although it probably doesn?t mean much, Parcells has beaten Gibbs in last six matchups between these two teams. DAL has a slightly better team, has a proven history of beating the opponent, and finally IS GETTING +3.5 That?s enough for me to take the dog.
BALTIMORE -2.5
(posted Monday night ? when offshores have line at BALT -2.5)
Comments: What?s the saying? Fool me once, shame on you?.fool me TWICE, shame on me. The Ravens were in an INDENTICAL spot two weeks ago and got hammered versus Browns on the road, and here it?s deja all over again. However, this time, I think the Ravens will be much more focused and will be prepared to pick up a road win. I?m leaning on BALT for a couple of key reasons ? perhaps the most important of which is seeing new CIN QB Palmer getting flustered at home versus MIA last Sunday night. Now, he faces at least as solid a defense versus aggressive Ravens and could be in for a long day. Bengals managed just 14 first downs last week, and five of those came on the last drive. Furthermore, Palmer?s yards per completion was s dismal 2.7, one of the lowest numbers on record. If Palmer can?t throw the ball downfield, the Bengals will not win. CIN running game wasn?t much better, which averages just 3.5 per carry ? some of that in trash time versus NYJ in opener. Meanwhile, credit the Ravens defense for two strong performances ? averaging just 13 first downs in two games. At least one angle also points to BALT in this game: Ravens are 7-0 ATS in last seven meetings the week after facing PITT, covering in those games by an average of 8 points per game. BALT picked up an easy win last week, which should carry over here if history is any indication. If the Bengals couldn?t cover versus the horrific Dolphins a week ago, I don?t? see them breaking out here with a victory. Finally, the Bengals are a woeful 0-9 ATS in last nine games where they have faced a divisional opponent with an identical W-L record, losing by an average of 9 PPG. Both BALT and CINCY have 1-1 records. This angle can explained by opponents seeing an opportunity to separate themselves from the pack, against a soft opponent. If Kitna were the QB, I wouldn?t lay this number, but I think it could be a long day for the still-developing Palmer. I?m also not fooled by Bengals defensive effort last week ? that came against an offensive line that was awful. Ravens won?t be as soft. Lay a comfortable number, while it?s at -2.5
MORE GAMES AND WRTE-UPS TO COME
