NFL WEEK 4 (Early Plays)

[Nolan Dalla]

*********************************
2004 NFL SEASON TO DATE
(includes pre-season and regular season)

WINS????????? 47
LOSSES???????.. 31
PUSH?????????..3
WIN PCT???????. 60.2

SIDES????????? 16--12--2
TOTALS???????? 8--3
HALF/QUARTERS??? 14?5--1
TEASERS???????. 1-2
HALFTIMES?????? 9?8

PROPS?????????1--4
**********************************

WEEK 3 RESULTS: 19-12-2 overall. The LIVE DOG QUARTERS ANGLE cashed again bigtime, with two wins on the live dogs, HOU and NOR.

HOUSTON +8 -- WON
1Q HOU +.5 -- LOST
2Q HOU +3.5 -- WON
!H HOU +4.5 -- WON
3Q HOU +.5 -- WON
4Q HOU +.5 -- WON
MIAMI -1 ? LOST (Dolphins -- never again)
TENN -6 -- LOST
DALL +3.5 -- WON
BALT -2.5 -- WON
TEASER: CLEVE +9 / DALL +8 -- LOST
1Q NOR +.5 -- LOST
2Q NOR +3.5 -- WON
3Q NOR +.5 -- WON
4Q NOR +.5 -- WON
MINNESOTA -10 -- LOST
DENVER -10 -- PUSH
INDY / GREEN BAY OVER 49 -- WON
SAN FRANCISCO +10 -- LOST
OAKLAND -3 -- WON
PHILA / DET UNDER 44 -- WON
PROP -- TOMLINSON: UNDER 94 yards rushing -- LOST
PROP -- CLE/NYG FIRST SCORE A NON-TD +135 -- LOST
PROP -- SHAUN ALEXANDER WILL NOT SCORE TD IN FIRST HALF ? LOST
2H: BALT +2 ? WON

HALFTIME ANGLES:
KC/HOU UNDER ? LOST
NOR/STL OVER ? WON
SFO/SEA UNDER ? WON

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETS:
1H DALL +.5 -- WON
1H UNDER 17.5 ? WON
FIRST SCORE A NON-TD ? LOSS
2H HIGHER SCORING THAN 1H ? WON
2H DALL +1 -- PUSH


NFL WEEK 4

The early preparation is working well, and I see no reason to change posting plays very early in the week. I will add several plays to this post ? and will probably play the LIVE DOG QUARTERS ANGLE on several of these picks. Hold your nose; some of these plays are going to look terrible to the naked eye:

BUFFALO +5.5
Comments: You might want to wait until near gametime to see if you can catch the +6. I will probably bet it on Friday at my offshore, since I get the free half point on Fridays (Millinium). This play is certainly stronger at +6 than the opening number. Still, the more I think about the Bills the more I like this play. Laying over 4 in the NFL is tough for division rivals. The only time they make any sense is late in the year when one team has major injury or coaching issues. Early in the season, laying more than 4 with a division road favorite is usually a mistake. Several factors point to the Bills here ? the Bills lost their home opener in heartbreaking fashion. They are 0-2 but with a break or two could be 2-0. The defense has played very well. New England did not exactly look on fire last week at ARZ and this like another game where they could get caught sleepwalking. After all, the Pats can pretty much name the score versus a team like ARZ, but they managed just a meager 8-point win. I think the situation is MUCH tougher here for this team ? that was whipped on this same field versus the Bills is last year?s opener 30-zip. There?s also a trend that suggests fading the defending Super Bowl champs in first four games. While this has not worked so far, I still believe the validity of the theory ? that the champs have to lay too many points. Here, we have an inflated line versus what should be a VERY motivate home team. Huge game for Bills. Just another road game for Pats. Furthermore, there is a very strong angle that favors the dog Bills:
FAVORITES COMING OFF A BYE, WHICH PLAYED PREVIOUS GAME ON THE ROAD are just 18-41 (a dismal 30 percent) since 1990.
BUFF is getting generous points, is likely to be more motivated, and has a decent enough team with a potent running game to keep pace with the Pats. Pats also have to contend with changing playing surface ? grass to turf. Great value with division home dog, BUFFALO +5.5

JAXSONVILLE +4
Comments: I got burned betting against JAX last week, after they made money for me the first two weeks. I won?t let that happen again. One thing that really impressed me after last weeks win was hearing the comments of some of the players who really do believe in themselves and their system. While many of us bitch and moan about the lack of offense, the Jags are content to be 3-0 and win ?ugly.? The Colts come in with all the accolades, as offense is always flashier than good defense. But, in a machup of the two, I?ll take DEFENSE every time. Meanwhile, Colts defense has looked dreadful, giving up loads of yards in all three games. This could be a breakout game for the Jags, after getting stumped in first three games. This should also be a HUGE emotional homecoming for the Jags who are playing their biggest game in five years versus the Colts. INDY?s troubles in Florida are well known, as this team often has trouble in spots like this. INDY is 0-2 in last two visits to JAX, including an outright loss here last year, in a similar role as a favorite. Meanwhile, JAX (despite being very young and weak offensively) is 6-3 SU under Coach Del Rio. Two more trends favor a play on JAX:
BET AGAINST TEAMS WHICH HAVE SCORED 30+ IN CONSECUTIVE GAMES. They are just 16-27 (32 percent covers) since 1990
Also, BET AGAINST ANY FAVORITE THIS WEEK THAT GAVE UP 27 POINTS AND COVERED LAST WEEK. Teams in this situation are just 3-14 (17 percent) since 1990.
Great opportunity to get points with a team the public still gives no respect to. Like I said, offense is always sexier with the betting public and gets played on the ESPN highlights ? but I?ll take a ballbusting defense and a home division dog anytime. Give me the points. JACKSONVILLE +4

CHICAGO +9
Comments: I expect the Eagles to finally come in and sleepwalk through a game. They have looked phenomenal in all three games, but no team runs the table in the NFL. Here?s a back to back road situation where one team is banged up, and down and out (but a very respectable 2-1 against the spread. Keep in mind that on the road, despite all the injuries last week, CHI stayed with MINN much of the game. Now, they come home versus a team that could come in very flat. Strong trend favors the Bears, which is simple ? but a consistent moneymaker:
BET AGAINST ANY 7+ POINT ROAD FAVORITE. These favorites are an awful 36-69 since 1990, for just 36 percent covers. Last year, 7+ points road favorites went 1-5. Who in the hell would lay points given these numbers? Betting CHICAGO +9

NOTE: Remember the LIVE DOG QUARTERS ANGLE, which appears to have at least these three plays this week. This could be a huge week if we get close games. The public is going to be all over the other side of these games. It?s a contrarian?s dream weekend.

More to come??.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

CORECTION: I posted the TOMLINSON prop as a LOSS, but it actually won. TOMLINSON rushed for 60 yards in a losing effort (prop was UNDER 93.5 yards). Revised W-L records to keep the tally accurate are:

*********************************
2004 NFL SEASON TO DATE
(includes pre-season and regular season)

WINS????????? 48
LOSSES???????.. 30
PUSH?????????..3
WIN PCT???????. 61.5

SIDES????????? 16--12--2
TOTALS???????? 8--3
HALF/QUARTERS??? 14?5--1
TEASERS???????. 1-2
HALFTIMES?????? 9?8

PROPS?????????2--3
**********************************

 

[Gmarco]

Nolan,
Do you still like the bears with Quinn starting in place of grossman?

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Nolan,
Do you still like the bears with Quinn starting in place of grossman?

I agree that this is a repugnant play on paper. But how many times do we see outclassed teams somehow cover the spread? It happens more often than not, proven by the trend numbers over the past decade. This line is +9 becasue of the questions about Bears QB situation. If Grossman were healthy and starting, the number would be closer to +5 (or perhaps +6). The KEY for me is -- there is not that much of a drop off between Grossman and the second string bench sitter. It's not like Favre not starting for the Packers. This is still a team that competes with solid defense -- albeit they have some injuries in that area, too. I don't think the dropoff is such that the line should shift 3 or more points. Again, it's hard to justify a play on the Bears for obvious reasons. This is more af an AGAINST PHILA play more than anything, based on a strong trend and an anticipated downswing of emotions with the Eagles going on the road a second straight week versus a lackluster opponent.

-- Nolan

 

[Gmarco]

Thanks Nolan. Have always enjoyed reading your write ups for the past couple of years.

 

[edludes]

The B'lo play may well cover,but to suggest that NE will be sleepwalking and unmotivated when they are going for an NFL record tying 18th straight victory,well, right or wrong thats why the line is moving up not down.Maybe anticipating lots of public action on NE the linesmaker made the opening line too big.I think any week following an ATS victory for the defending SB champions one should look to bet against them as you are,but NE will be motivated by the chance to match an NFl consecutive win record,not sleepwalking wouldn't you think?.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Elludes:

Very good points about the NFL consecutive wins streak. Perhaps "sleepwalking" is a wrong term here, but in the first two games I did not see intensity from the Pats, as though they are driven to break records. While impressive, this is not exactly a sacred number or record. Pats looked terribly unmotivated to me in the last game at ARZ. And, the opening game could have been a loss had it not been for a couple of turnovers. So, I do see your point about the Pats -- but when it comes to motivation, I think the ege goes to the Bills. Believe me, I can't stand the idea of betting on a Bledsoe-Henry team, but this is essentially a MUST WIN game for BUFF, while it's just in another long season for the Pats, who are likley to win the AFC East by default (with all due respect to NY Jets).

Other opinions on this game or others are most welcome.

--Nolan

 

[Dizzayton]

Bills Game

Bills Game

As a Bill's fan with season tickets and a gambler I will tell everyone this: I don't think it is a great game to bet. The spread is very accurate as it reflects the fact that the Bills have a top notch defense and are playing at home. But let me warn you, homefield advantage has not been a huge factor for this Bills team the past few seasons. The fans are sick and tired of the same old BS. Obviously, it is better than playing in NE, but I don't believe the homefield edge in Buffalo is that great. The only reason to bet the Bills is because there offense cannot get anyworse than it was last week, but that's what I said going into the Raiders game and it was just as bad. Henry is not a great RB, he doesn't have the burst or strength to shrug off any type of tackles. Bledsoe is one of the worst five starting QBs in the league as he has no mobility, as everyone knows, and he also has a dead arm, similar to Couch. The guy cannot throw anywhere near the deep ball he used to. In conclusion, I feel the Bills show up and give there best effort in this spot as expectations and pressure are low going into the game. Bottomline: the Bills offense is good for one touchdown and possibly a couple field goals. This may be enough to cover as the Bills will contain Brady. I feel like the Bills are absolutely due for some breaks, probably in the form of a turnover or two. They have absolutely taken it in the you know what the last couple of games. Both games were easily winnable, but they managed to blow it.

My Prediction:
NE 23-Buffalo-13

 

[SHOWEM]

Any thoughts on the Jets or S.D. this week?

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Show:

I'm not sure who you are directing the question towards, but I'm taking the Jets in a tease situation. As a rule, I don't like laying points in road division rivalries. But teased down, this looks appealilng. I have no opinio on the Chargers yet, but might later in the week.

Feedback welcome.

I'm adding:

TEASER: HOUSTON +8.5 with NY JETS (pcik)
Comments: Miami looks like a team on the verge of a collapse. The defense has to be furious at the offensive lack of production. I'm not a believer in the Jets yet, but they should roll here as they get to meet yet another patsy opponet. I love HOUSTON plus the points, and might take them as a side, as well. Teasing them gives us wins over the key numbers -- 3, 4, 6, and 7. OAK is vastly over-rated and has absolutely no business being favored on the road. I've never been a fan of K Collins and this is a bad line. I'd have the Texans laying -2 here, so there is clear value. HOU has added motivation coming back home after the opening day home loss, and I think they get the job done here. HOU can move the ball, and as long as they hang onto the ball, I think they easily cover this teased number. So -- in one game we have essentially two .500 teams, and we are getting +8.5 with the home team. In the other, we have two teams going in completely opposite directions -- all we ask os that our team wins the game. Looks very winable to me.

-- Nolan

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I'm adding a few things today, including the much-requested GOLDMAN CONSESNSUS. Rememeberl, this is a system based on fading the most popular picks of a group of about 200 squares, which has been going on for 11 years. The system always had a winning year, except last year which was close to break even.

Here are GOLDMAN's goodies:

_____________________________________



As always, these sheets are dependant upon MY data entry, so if there are
any discrepancies, the handwritten official sheets from HQ will prevail.

As to the teams the pool players prefer this week, the standout is NE-5- in
BUFFALO. I always discount the NY home teams by 20, and if you do so this
week, the JETS would STILL qualify as being out of balance, but it's your
choice. The other two pretty heavily out of balance games show the fans on
the Colts-4 and the Eagles -8-.

If I were looking to be against the teams the fans in this pool like, I'd be
on the BILLS and the DOLPHINS. Each are getting 5- points at home.

Good Luck and be careful.

shg

 

[Nolan Dalla]

ADDING:

CINCINATTI +3.5
Comments: Two rookie QBs starting this week, makes this very close to a toss up game. I believe the Steelers are an exagerated 2-1 SU, and are about equal in talent to rising Cincy. Bengals won at Pitt last year. In a close game where a FG cold be the difference, I love the hook.


--Nolan Dalla

 

[Nolan Dalla]

CORRECTION: The CINCY line should be +4.5

I also noted that it went up to +5 at Millinuium, and with the half point Friday bonus, you can get it at +5.5 FOr the purposes of tracking however, I will post it at +4.5

Nolan

 

[Silica]

Nolan if you dont mind me asking, i've always wondered what kinda $ you bet with on your plays?

Tim

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I'm not sure the amount of $ bet is relevant. I have discussed in the past here at this site about some of the best handicapper I know being semi-recreational $100 bettors. I know several bettors who wager upwards of 5K a game who couldn't pick their nose. So, SIZE OF WAGER is not really an indication of skill, IMHO.

So you won't think I am ducking the question, I will answer.

For many years, my standard wager was 200-300 a play. My best year was in 2000 when I made about 20K during the NFL season (I bet a lot of games). Sometimes I bet 500 that year, but by and large -- my standard wager in the past was in the 2-3 range.

This year, I'm stepping it up becasue I feel much more confident about what I'm doing and am focusing a lot more on the capping and reseaching (I bet a ton of plays that are not pposted here -- especially in college). I also bet a huge number of college halftimes, and I am working on a COLLEGE HALFTIME ANGLES database, with angles. I think I have some real gems.

My stanrd wager on college right now is 300. If I really like the play, I make it 500. Almost all of my NFL bets are 500. My largest bet is 1000, and I do 1-2 of those per week. I do not do a lot of hedging or middles, although I probably should. My problem is, I have trouble predicting what the public will do and which way the line will move, so I'm not very good at that.

On my quarters, I usually bet 300 per QTR, but sometimes 200. That way, I am not overextending myself if ai have a bad week.

It's true that the juice eats me up with lots of bets, but I really do feel confident that I can bang out something in the 55 percent range at least and generate a profit. When you are ahed of the year, it's much easier to press up the bets than when struggling and make the same 500 play.

Also, I want to stress that the real gold is when you are wathcing a game, and see an insane halftime line (especially where one team s creaming the other -- yet the winning team is osmehow a dog in the 2H). BALT last week was a great example, getting +2. The week before, the Bears were +7 in the 2H. I mean, those lines were outstanding values for the dog. What I'm trying to say is, I'm becoming less and less interested in SIDES and put a lot more emphais on the other exotics. Trouble is, it's hard to post things about the exotics. Everyone wants a winner in the sides. I never should have entered that Hilton contest (I'm right at .500), becasue my sides plays are marginal -- I think. BY maringal, I mean, my confidence level is not nearly as strong as some of the other exitics. I still believe they have a slight value however.

Here's the plays I have so far this week.

NYG +7
CHI +9
BUFF +5.5
TEASER: HOU +8.5 with NYJ (pick)
JAX +4
CINCY +4.5

Adding these:

PHILA-CHI UNDER 39.5
Comments: Phila comes in flat, Bears keep it close with ground attack. 20-17 type of game.

KC/BALT UNDER 41.5
Comments: BALT wins with RB Lewis getting 30 carries and KC offense gets stifled on the road versus NFL's best D.

SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
Comments: Call this a sucker bet, but I don't think the 49ers will lay down two weeks in a row. Rams are a dismal 0-3 ATS, and have no business laying over a FG on the road to anyone. Close game expected -- I'll take the points.

--Nolan Dalla

 

[lowell]

thanks for the post. i for one would love for you to post your college plays-with or without the reasons. thanks again and good luck

 

[baby johnson]

thanks nolan i appreciate your help...

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I really think halftime college plays are a gold mine. The boiks simply can't out up accurate lines on so many games. They don't have time to watch a bunch of games and see the stats and line play, and use old tired formuias. I had last Sat night something like five dogs in the 2H where the fave was losing outright, and laying points agian in the 2H. All the dgos cashed.

I'm not sure I could add much to the discourse that is at the forum. There are a lot of college specialists there who know more about college football than I do. So, I have to take a pass on doing colege write ups. I also do some coattaililng and have been somewhat successful picking spots with some oft he cappers at the college forum.

I actually started to take a course at UNLV on football handicapping. I think I know a lot of things, but there is always more to learn. If I pick up one thing useful that makes me win a bet, the course will have been worth it. Perhaps i will learn something in the course and can pass it along. The first night of the class was last Wed and it sold out and was standing room only.

--Nolan

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I'm wrapping up the thread with some added quarters plays. I had a hard time picking which game fit the QTR angle best, so I'm just plauying all of these for lesser amounts:

NYG +5 !Q
NYG +3 2Q
NYG +4.5 1H (terrible line -- great value here)
NYG +.5 3Q
NYG +.5 4Q
BUFF +.5 1Q
BUFF +.5 2Q
BUFF +3 1H
BUFF +.5 3Q
BUFF +.5 4Q
JAX +.5 1Q
JAX +.5 2Q
JAX +.5 3Q
JAX +.5 4Q
CINCY +.5 !Q
CINCY +.5 2Q
CINCY +.5 3Q
CINCY +.5 4Q
SFO +.5 1Q
SFO +.5 2Q
SFO +1.5 1H
SFO +.5 3Q
SFO +.5 4Q
HOU +.5 2Q

Note: I like HOU in 2Q only....I don't like the Bengals only getting +2.5 in 1H so a pass on that.....I also am passing on the JAX 1H becaseu we arenot getting a full three.......Most 3Q and $Q bets you must lay -120, and -125 in some cases. That decreases the value of the play. I still think 60 percent is a reasonable number to hit with these "live dogs"

--Nolan Dalla

 

[skillrules]

good luck Nolan