Best bets went a healthy 3-0 last week to bring the season record to 7-3-1 +7.70% for the year. That keeps me on pace with my 67% record over the final 10 weeks or so last year and hopefully the read on the NFL will continue strong. All side opinions slipped to just 7-7 last week and they are now 26-18-2 59% over the first three weeks this year.
Abbreviations used throughout the write-ups and league averages to compare to.
PF - Average Points Scored (20.5)
YPR - Yards Per Rush (4.0)
YPS - Yards Per Pass (5.6)
YPPL - Yards Per Play (4.9)
Home team in caps.
WASHINGTON -2.5 New England 42.5
NE won their second straight game last week over the Jets but they were far from impressive. Not only are the Patriots hurting big time with key injuries on defense but they were badly out played last week, from a stats perspective. The Jets gained 329 yards at 5.4 yppl to just 294 yards and 4.4 yppl for NE. On top of that, Tom Brady was sacked five times and he is hurting as well. NE hasn't made any adjustments to their deficiencies from last year. They still can't run the ball, averaging just 3.6 ypr against teams allowing 3.9 ypr and their passing game is suffering as well, gaining just 4.6 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. That would be a little more tolerable if they were getting it done on defense but they aren't. While their overall defense is allowing just 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl, their rush defense is playing terrible, allowing 4.0 ypr against teams averaging just 3.4 ypr. They held Buffalo to 3.2 ypr but Buffalo only averages 2.4 ypr. They held Philadelphia to 5.8 ypr and they average 6.7 ypr but that is somewhat misleading because of McNabb and Philly also gained 47 yards on an end around play (in the TB game, which inflates their overall rushing averages). And last week they allowed the Jets to average 3.8 ypr but the Jets only average 2.9 ypr. The NE pass defense is playing well, allowing just 5.0 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. Everybody thinks the Redskins are a passing team, and they are and it would appear the NE pass defense would be a good match-up for the Redskins pass offense. The Redskins are throwing the ball 56% of the time but a lot of that came last week when they were forced to play catch-up. Prior to last week's catch-up mode game, Washington was only throwing the ball around 43% of the time. We can expect Washington to go back to the rushing game again this week against a poor NE rush defense, especially considering Washington is averaging a healthy 4.7 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr. On top of that, Washington's defense is playing extremely well, allowing just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. And they are very solid against the pass, allowing 5.3 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps. So, if NE is forced to play catch-up, Washington should be able to defend against the pass. And I expect NE to be playing catch-up. Washington qualifies in a very solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 70-29-3. They also qualify in a second fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year and they also qualify in a scheduling situation, which is a letdown situation for NE that is 31-8-3. All the NE injuries almost make this play too obvious but the fundamentals are there. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 42-12-1. WASHINGTON 27 NEW ENGLAND 17
Kansas City -3 BALTIMORE 44
KC sure looks good right about now. The Chiefs are 3-0 and riding sky high, having scored 27 or more points in three straight games, including 40+ in their last two games. Yes, the Chiefs are starting to resemble the 1999 Dick Vermeil led Rams, with their high scoring offense (averaging 37 points per game - Rams averaged 33). And it took quite a while for people to realize the Rams defense that year was pretty solid. It's not taking people as long to realize the Chiefs defense this year is a major improvement over last year's squad. The Chiefs defense is allowing just 5.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. While the Chiefs passing game has been very solid, averaging 7.5 yps against teams allowing just 5.8 yps, their rushing offense has been just average, gaining just 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 4.5 ypr. They'll take on a solid defense this week in Baltimore, who is allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl. KC has faced two mediocre to poor defenses, in SD and Houston, who are both below average. They also faced Pittsburgh, who they beat 41-20 but were outplayed in that game, from a stats perspective, gaining just 282 yards at 4.9 yppl. So, this Baltimore defense certainly has a chance to hold down the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs have been scoring so many points because of their special teams play. Again, another similarity to the Vermeil '99 Rams team. The challenge here will be the Baltimore offense against a good Chiefs defense. There is nothing special about Baltimore's passing offense, which has gained less than 100 yards in each of the last two weeks (50 two weeks ago and only 97 last week) and are now averaging just 3.3 yps against teams allowing 4.8 yps this year. Of course, the strength of the Baltimore offense is their running game, which is averaging 6.1 ypr against teams allowing 5.1 ypr. They'll face a Chiefs rush defense, which is allowing 3.9 ypr against teams averaging 3.9 ypr. I had a lean against Buffalo last week, even though the Bills were playing extremely well on offense and defense but the situation just didn't favor them. This week KC is in the same situation. The Chiefs qualify in a letdown situation, which is 79-40-5 and plays against KC based on their recent offensive success. KC has also won and covered three straight games and because of that, they qualify in a letdown mode that is 62-23-4 and again plays against them. The value here lies with KC, based on their recent success, but I've learned over the years that situations are stronger than the value. Otherwise, like I said last week, we'd have a few teams each year that are undefeated and a few teams that are winless. That's only happened twice, I believe, since 1970 so it's quite obvious that teams play below or above their expected tendencies because of different situations they are put in. This is one of them. BALTIMORE 27 KANSAS CITY 21
BUFFALO -3 Philadelphia 41
I have leaned against Buffalo in each of the first three weeks. I was finally right last week. I have also leaned against Philly in each of their first two weeks and have been right both times. Philly certainly hasn't played very well so far. Their passing game has been nonexistent, averaging just 3.1 yps against teams allowing 4.3 yps but their running game has been very solid (albeit most has come from McNabb and a wide receiver end around for 47 yards), averaging 6.7 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr. That should set them up rather nice against a Bills defense that is allowing 4.2 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. The Buffalo pass defense has been very solid, allowing just 4.3 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. I don't think Philly will do much through the air but with the threat of McNabb running, that can open up some passing lanes as well. On the other side of the ball, I spoke last week about Buffalo's inability to rush the ball and it showed last week when they averaged just 2.9 ypr on 41 yards. For the season, they are now averaging just 2.4 ypr against teams allowing 3.2 ypr. There hasn't been anything wrong with the Philly rush defense, which is allowing just 2.5 ypr against teams averaging 3.4 ypr. I don't see Buffalo moving the ball on the ground much this week either. The Philly secondary has been hurt by injuries and it is showing up, as the Eagles are allowing 5.9 yps against teams averaging just 5.4 yps. That does play into the hands of Buffalo, who is averaging 7.1 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps. Buffalo only averaged 2.6 yps last week against a Miami pass defense that was suspect as well, so I think Philly, in desperation mode, off a bye can do enough to slow down the Bills passing offense. Philly qualifies in some solid situations this week, including a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year. They also qualify in an early season situation, which is 95-46-6 and 6-1-1 this year and they qualify in a contrarian situation, which is 106-55-5 that plays on teams coming off of consecutive home games. Again, the value lies with Buffalo, based on early season play, but again, I have discovered the situations out weigh the value in the NFL. With both defenses playing above average, as a whole, and both offense playing below average, as a whole, the lean here would be to the under and my numbers suggest a lower scoring game than 'they' think. PHILADELPHIA 20 BUFFALO 17
Abbreviations used throughout the write-ups and league averages to compare to.
PF - Average Points Scored (20.5)
YPR - Yards Per Rush (4.0)
YPS - Yards Per Pass (5.6)
YPPL - Yards Per Play (4.9)
Home team in caps.
WASHINGTON -2.5 New England 42.5
NE won their second straight game last week over the Jets but they were far from impressive. Not only are the Patriots hurting big time with key injuries on defense but they were badly out played last week, from a stats perspective. The Jets gained 329 yards at 5.4 yppl to just 294 yards and 4.4 yppl for NE. On top of that, Tom Brady was sacked five times and he is hurting as well. NE hasn't made any adjustments to their deficiencies from last year. They still can't run the ball, averaging just 3.6 ypr against teams allowing 3.9 ypr and their passing game is suffering as well, gaining just 4.6 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. That would be a little more tolerable if they were getting it done on defense but they aren't. While their overall defense is allowing just 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl, their rush defense is playing terrible, allowing 4.0 ypr against teams averaging just 3.4 ypr. They held Buffalo to 3.2 ypr but Buffalo only averages 2.4 ypr. They held Philadelphia to 5.8 ypr and they average 6.7 ypr but that is somewhat misleading because of McNabb and Philly also gained 47 yards on an end around play (in the TB game, which inflates their overall rushing averages). And last week they allowed the Jets to average 3.8 ypr but the Jets only average 2.9 ypr. The NE pass defense is playing well, allowing just 5.0 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. Everybody thinks the Redskins are a passing team, and they are and it would appear the NE pass defense would be a good match-up for the Redskins pass offense. The Redskins are throwing the ball 56% of the time but a lot of that came last week when they were forced to play catch-up. Prior to last week's catch-up mode game, Washington was only throwing the ball around 43% of the time. We can expect Washington to go back to the rushing game again this week against a poor NE rush defense, especially considering Washington is averaging a healthy 4.7 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr. On top of that, Washington's defense is playing extremely well, allowing just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. And they are very solid against the pass, allowing 5.3 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps. So, if NE is forced to play catch-up, Washington should be able to defend against the pass. And I expect NE to be playing catch-up. Washington qualifies in a very solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 70-29-3. They also qualify in a second fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year and they also qualify in a scheduling situation, which is a letdown situation for NE that is 31-8-3. All the NE injuries almost make this play too obvious but the fundamentals are there. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 42-12-1. WASHINGTON 27 NEW ENGLAND 17
Kansas City -3 BALTIMORE 44
KC sure looks good right about now. The Chiefs are 3-0 and riding sky high, having scored 27 or more points in three straight games, including 40+ in their last two games. Yes, the Chiefs are starting to resemble the 1999 Dick Vermeil led Rams, with their high scoring offense (averaging 37 points per game - Rams averaged 33). And it took quite a while for people to realize the Rams defense that year was pretty solid. It's not taking people as long to realize the Chiefs defense this year is a major improvement over last year's squad. The Chiefs defense is allowing just 5.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. While the Chiefs passing game has been very solid, averaging 7.5 yps against teams allowing just 5.8 yps, their rushing offense has been just average, gaining just 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 4.5 ypr. They'll take on a solid defense this week in Baltimore, who is allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl. KC has faced two mediocre to poor defenses, in SD and Houston, who are both below average. They also faced Pittsburgh, who they beat 41-20 but were outplayed in that game, from a stats perspective, gaining just 282 yards at 4.9 yppl. So, this Baltimore defense certainly has a chance to hold down the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs have been scoring so many points because of their special teams play. Again, another similarity to the Vermeil '99 Rams team. The challenge here will be the Baltimore offense against a good Chiefs defense. There is nothing special about Baltimore's passing offense, which has gained less than 100 yards in each of the last two weeks (50 two weeks ago and only 97 last week) and are now averaging just 3.3 yps against teams allowing 4.8 yps this year. Of course, the strength of the Baltimore offense is their running game, which is averaging 6.1 ypr against teams allowing 5.1 ypr. They'll face a Chiefs rush defense, which is allowing 3.9 ypr against teams averaging 3.9 ypr. I had a lean against Buffalo last week, even though the Bills were playing extremely well on offense and defense but the situation just didn't favor them. This week KC is in the same situation. The Chiefs qualify in a letdown situation, which is 79-40-5 and plays against KC based on their recent offensive success. KC has also won and covered three straight games and because of that, they qualify in a letdown mode that is 62-23-4 and again plays against them. The value here lies with KC, based on their recent success, but I've learned over the years that situations are stronger than the value. Otherwise, like I said last week, we'd have a few teams each year that are undefeated and a few teams that are winless. That's only happened twice, I believe, since 1970 so it's quite obvious that teams play below or above their expected tendencies because of different situations they are put in. This is one of them. BALTIMORE 27 KANSAS CITY 21
BUFFALO -3 Philadelphia 41
I have leaned against Buffalo in each of the first three weeks. I was finally right last week. I have also leaned against Philly in each of their first two weeks and have been right both times. Philly certainly hasn't played very well so far. Their passing game has been nonexistent, averaging just 3.1 yps against teams allowing 4.3 yps but their running game has been very solid (albeit most has come from McNabb and a wide receiver end around for 47 yards), averaging 6.7 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr. That should set them up rather nice against a Bills defense that is allowing 4.2 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. The Buffalo pass defense has been very solid, allowing just 4.3 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. I don't think Philly will do much through the air but with the threat of McNabb running, that can open up some passing lanes as well. On the other side of the ball, I spoke last week about Buffalo's inability to rush the ball and it showed last week when they averaged just 2.9 ypr on 41 yards. For the season, they are now averaging just 2.4 ypr against teams allowing 3.2 ypr. There hasn't been anything wrong with the Philly rush defense, which is allowing just 2.5 ypr against teams averaging 3.4 ypr. I don't see Buffalo moving the ball on the ground much this week either. The Philly secondary has been hurt by injuries and it is showing up, as the Eagles are allowing 5.9 yps against teams averaging just 5.4 yps. That does play into the hands of Buffalo, who is averaging 7.1 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps. Buffalo only averaged 2.6 yps last week against a Miami pass defense that was suspect as well, so I think Philly, in desperation mode, off a bye can do enough to slow down the Bills passing offense. Philly qualifies in some solid situations this week, including a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year. They also qualify in an early season situation, which is 95-46-6 and 6-1-1 this year and they qualify in a contrarian situation, which is 106-55-5 that plays on teams coming off of consecutive home games. Again, the value lies with Buffalo, based on early season play, but again, I have discovered the situations out weigh the value in the NFL. With both defenses playing above average, as a whole, and both offense playing below average, as a whole, the lean here would be to the under and my numbers suggest a lower scoring game than 'they' think. PHILADELPHIA 20 BUFFALO 17
