NFL Week 6 (7-1 last two...)

[RipIt3]

Here we go again with the early leans. All the games are posted with the over/unders as well. The * rankings are for sides only, all over/under = 1*...

Early leans last since week 4: 24-12-1, +26.4

The games I've played:
Week 1: 0-0
Week 2: 1-1
Week 3: 3-8
Week 4: 5-0
Week 5: 2-1
Overall: 11-9, -0.2 units (7-1, +7.9 units since week 4)

3*
Mia -3, O38
Dal +1, O37.5
Buf -2.5, O38
Bal -6.5, O46

2*
NE -3, U40.5
NO -5.5, O42
Den -6.5, U46
StL -11, U45.5

1*
Cle -3, U44
Ind -5, O
GB -2, O 48
Hou +10, O40
Sea -3.5, U45.5

Waiting on TB/Was Line...

Be back later with write-ups on the games I like...

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Keep it up RipIt3! Good job the last few weeks...looks like you like the faves this week...dogs are starting to take over again so be careful not to play too many faves...as only 4 faves covered last weekend...

Hope the Cubbies come out strong tonight - i am a huge Cubs fan too & like them to take Game 1 & the series...

GL to you!

 

[RipIt3]

Runner-

GO CUBS!!!

I love starting Zambrano tonight at home against Beckett. If the Cubs win this game tonight, I'm going to say it, this series is over. They will have Wood/Prior pitching 4 of the next six games if needed, including starting wood against Redman in game 3 in Florida. I live for this...

As far as the favs go this week, when I do my early leans, it goes stricktly offensive/defensive match-ups. I have a new way of comparing the two that has been very successful.

I hate it when people compare teams in general categories. For example, we'll take the Oakland v. Chicago game last week. You see this al lthe time:
Offense: Advantage Oakland
Defense: Advantage Oakland
Special teams, coaching, etc...

You can't compare things like that. It has to be broken down further and then placed against the other team's D. i.e.: How does Chicago's run offense match up against Oakland's run D and vice-versa? Then, compare passing offenses to the opponent's defense.

Now you have advantages not of offense-offense, defensive-defensive, but rush O - rush D for both teams and pass O - pass D for both teams.

I compare them using the rushing yards per game rankings for rushing and QB rating for passing.

An interesting note, when one team has an advantage both running the ball and passing the ball, they are 14-4 against the spread in the last two weeks. Not too bad...

I brought this up in response to your remark on favs this week. I noticed a bunch of the games came out in favor of the favorites, which alarmed me. But I trust the way it came out. Last week it was almost half dogs, this week it is mostly favorites. I think to back off of a favorite because of trends in football week to week isn't smart. And I'm not suggesting that you were telling me to back off, I'm just making a point. Yes, over the course of the season, things will even out. But it's not going to happen in one week or two weeks, so we can't analyze games for one week looking at dogs v. favorites winners.

Another interesting note...

Analyzing games the way I have for the last two weeks, the team with the advantage running the ball, in the past 28 games, has gone 20-8, or 71.4%, against the spread. Teams that have the advantage passing the ball are 18-9-1, or 64.3% winners, against the spread. Which brings us back to the big stat, teams that have the advantage both rushing and passing, they are 14-4, or 77.8%. And I think that makes sense. As time goes on, the way I compare teams will be tweaked, and by no means do I expect these numbers to keep up. This week will be a good test as the way I compare teams has 12 out of 14 favorites covering. I'm not done analyzing, however, as these are only leans. I still need to take into account all the supplemental information.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens and see if this way of analyzing teams keeps up...

Good luck this week, let's make some money!

 

[RipIt3]

Adding TB/Was early lean

Adding TB/Was early lean

TB -3
Over 38

Be back with write-ups later...

 

[RipIt3]

Altered...

Altered...

I'm altering my early leans... I still have to break these down and look at them game by game...

3*
Mia -3, O38
Dal +1, O37.5
Buf -2.5, O38
Bal -6.5, O46

2*
NE -3, U40.5
NO -5.5, O42
Den -6.5, U46
TB -3, O38
StL -11, U45.5

1*
Oak +3, U44
Car +5, O
KC +2, O 48
Hou +10, O40
SF +3.5, U45.5

Here's how I rank these:

The 3* plays are on teams that have the advantage both rushing and passing against their opponents defense and also have a sweep of advantages in a number of other areas. These have gone 8-1 the last two weeks (when I started tooking at games this way, including GB who's line came out late in Week 4).

The 2* plays are on teams that have the advantage both rushing and passing against their opponents defense and have advantages in a mixture, but not all, of other areas. These plays are 5-3-1 in the last two weeks.

The 1* plays are on teams that have mixed advantages and a greater difference in advantage in either rush or pass than their opponent. These plays have gone 4-6 in the last two weeks.

The interesting note here, the dgos are 7-2-1 in 1* games in the last two weeks. Suggests betting on the dogs for one star games, which makes sense: In games that are more closely matched, take the team with the points. In these 1* games, the dog won the SU 4 times, used the points to cover 3 times, and have pushed 1 (with the favorite covering the other two games). There appears to be no advantage home v. away.

This changes 4 of the 5 one star games this week and that is my reason for changing those games. And let me remind you, in no way am I putting all of my eggs in this basket. I will go through all the information I can an dpick out the best 3-5 plays I find, usually from the 3*/2* group you see above.

Good luck this week!

 

[bej0101]

nice info, keep on truck'n

 

[RipIt3]

Early Leans Results

Early Leans Results

Here are the results for the early leans. The sides kicked butt again, for the third week in a row. Seriously thinking about playing the board. Over the last three weeks, the early leans sides, for every game played are hitting over 75%....

3*
Mia -3, O38 W, L
Dal +1, O37.5 W, W
Buf -2.5, O38 L, L
Bal -6.5, O46 W, L

2*
NE -3, U40.5 W, W
NO -5.5, O42 W, L
Den -6.5, U46 L, W
TB -3, O38 W, W
StL -11, U45.5 W, W

1*
Oak +3, U44 L, W
Car +5, O W, W
KC +2, O 48 W, W
Hou +10, O40 L, W
SF +3.5, U45.5 W, W


Over/Under win/loss for week 6: 10-4

3* Sides: 3-1
2* Sides: 4-1
1* Sides: 3-2

Since I started the new way of looking at games in Week 4, including sides and totals: 43-21-1, 67.19% (posted).

Here are the sides, most are posted, there are a couple of games that didn't get posted due to late lines. The spreadsheet I have doesn't take that into consideration...

Sides: 28-13-1, 66.7%

If I had played dogs for all of the 1* games, this record would be...

32-9-1, 76.2%

I started playing all dogs on the 1* plays this week, they went 3-2. I'll continue doing this until it stops making money. Have a good week this week, early leans will be out tomorrow evening...