Nfl Week 6

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Sixth Sense

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I suffered my first sub .500 week last week in the NFL, going just 2-4 and that dropped the record to 15-10 60.0% on the year. I'm not sure what to think about last week. The Monday night game was a debacle as TB gave up a 21 point lead with just four minutes left in the game. But, I got extremely lucky on my total bet on the Jacksonville game on Sunday. Dallas decided to kneel down on the five yard line, and costing me my over bet in that game and a 58 yard field goal by Seattle to end the first half cost me my under bet in that game. New England gave up the lead with about five minutes left but came right back to score (and I steal this next line from someone else) faster than I could pay the pizza man to grab the lead back for good. Bottom line is the day could have been much better or much worse and I got some breaks on Saturday so I'll take what I got and move on.

All side opinions went 6-7-1 (7-7 if you consider the Detroit line moved to +7.5) last week and they are now 41-29-3 59% over the first five weeks this year.


Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1

NEW ENGLAND -2.5 NY Giants 41

NE played a pretty good game last week and moved the ball quite well but also gave up some big yards. They have had multiple injuries to overcome and I had them last week and got away with the cover but this might be the time to go against them this week. They allowed Tennessee to gain 442 yards last week at 6.0 yppl. They gained 354 yards themselves at 5.8 yppl so nothing wrong with the offense, despite some injuries at running back. NE ran for 161 yards last week at 6.0 ypr. For the Giants, they played a good game from a yardage perspective, but lost the game because of turnovers and a failure to force Miami into turnovers by dropping two potential interceptions that resulted in six points for Miami. The Giants gained 350 yards at 5.2 yppl and only allowed Miami to gain 285 yards at 4.9 yppl. Take out Miami's end around 68 yard run on a reverse and they gained just 3.8 yppl. And, although they allowed Miami to run for 134 yards at 4.5 ypr, take out the 68 yard run on a reverse and they only gained 66 yards at 2.3 ypr. Point is the Giants played pretty well except for four costly turnovers. For the season, NE is very average, by gaining exactly what their opponent's are allowing and averaging (4.8 vs 4.8 yppl on offense and 5.0 vs 5.0 yppl on defense). The Giants defense is still not playing real well, allowing 5.3 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl but their offense is playing well, gaining 5.3 yppl against 5.0 yppl. I have conflicting trends on this game, which make that part of the handicapping neutral. The Giants do run the ball very well, averaging 4.2 ypr against 3.6 ypr and NE is allowing 3.7 ypr but against teams averaging only 3.5 ypr. My final numbers favor the Giants slightly and they favor the over but I have a 286-216-11 situation that plays on the under, which makes the total a no play. I group teams into ratings with their offense, defense and overall and the Giants rate better across the board. Combine that with the NE injuries and I side with the Giants. NY GIANTS 24 NEW ENGLAND 21

Tampa Bay -3.5 WASHINGTON 38

Nice debacle by TB last week. Thanks. Washington dropped a decision at Philly but played a decent game. They couldn't get their running game going, averaging just 2.3 ypr on 49 yards. They defended Philly well, allowing just 4.0 ypr and 4.1 yppl, although the Philly offense hasn't been that great this year but the rushing offense has been much better than they did last Sunday. Yes, Washington scored late to make the game much closer but they also allowed a short interception return for a touchdown. For TB, they had the big lead, and I had them last week, but they didn't exactly do as much as it might appear they did to get that lead. They scored their first touchdown on a broken coverage play and their second touchdown on a fumble return, after they had turned the ball over. They also returned an interception for a touchdown for a third score. That's all part of the game but their offense wasn't quite as dominating as it might have seemed. For the game, they gained 6.3 yppl on 457 yards, which is very good, but their defense also allowed 455 yards at 6.5 yppl. They gave up 7.2 yps, much after they lost Brian Kelly in the secondary. They won't have him again this week and after losing Dexter Jackson during the off season and playing without their best linebacker (who may return), the defense is suffering a little because of a lack of depth. The TB rush defense is better than average, allowing 4.1 ypr against teams averaging 4.3 ypr but they will face a stiff test against Washington, who is averaging 4.2 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr. The TB offense has moved the ball well this year through the air, averaging 6.6 yps against 6.1 yps, but their rushing offense is terrible, averaging just 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr. Washington has been very average stopping the pass this year, allowing 5.5 yps against 5.4 yps but their rushing defense has been very solid, allowing just 3.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr. That doesn't bode well for TB, who can't run the ball, has lost Mike Alstott for the year and Michael Pittman is banged up along with Keyshawn Johnson (who may not play). TB qualifies in a negative scheduling situation this week, which is a 97-51-3 situation playing against TB. Washington is also a turnover table play, which is now 747-579-30 over the last 20 seasons. Most importantly, Washington qualifies in a number of solid fundamental rushing situations, which are 107-52-6, 489-380-29 and 128-50-7. These are all solid situations and indicate Washington will control the ball on the ground and plays good defense themselves. My power rating numbers suggest this line is fair and my final score predictor favor TB, but as I have said week after week, I consider the situations to be much stronger than the value aspect to handicapping. My final numbers also suggest this game to go over the total and I do have a 73-41-2 situation that plays on the over but I am a little hesitant to play the over, despite the low total because of the potential for TB to play solid defense, especially against a young quarterback. Having said that, the situations are simply way too strong to not play Washington. WASHINGTON 24 TAMPA BAY 17

CLEVELAND - 3 Oakland 44

Oakland continues to sink lower and lower each week, losing to Chicago last week and allowing 200 yards rushing at 5.7 ypr. For the season, Oakland is now allowing 163 yards rushing and 4.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.1 ypr. The pass defense hasn't been any better, allowing 6.4 yps against teams averaging just 5.7 yps. They may get a bit of a break this week against a Cleveland offense that is below average, especially running the ball, where they are averaging just 3.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr. While the Cleveland pass defense has been good, their rush defense has been horrible, allowing 4.9 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr and Oakland figures to take advantage of that this week, as they are averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.4 ypr. Oakland also qualifies in a terrific rushing situation, which is 489-380-29 over the last 20 seasons. Cleveland, with their solid win last week over Pittsburgh (they gained 332 yards to 221 yards and 5.0 yppl to 4.3 yppl), sets up in a home momentum situation, which is 63-20-6. Oakland also qualifies in a contrarian situation, which is 287-207-10. My numbers favor Cleveland in this game and actually favor the under as well. But, the situations lean towards Oakland and I have a hard time laying points with an anemic offense. The dog is the play here and that is Oakland. OAKLAND 20 CLEVELAND 17
 
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INDIANAPOLIS -5 Carolina 38.5

The final numbers last week for Indy were quite impressive. Just another reason to remember a game is a full 60 minutes. For Carolina, they are still undefeated. They are an interesting team to watch because they are below average on both offense and defense, believe it or not. They are averaging just 4.6 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl, although they are running the ball very well (4.6 ypr against 3.9 ypr) but their passing game has been terrible (4.6 yps against 6.4 yps). Facing teams allowing 6.4 yps means they have faced terrible pass defenses and they still haven't been able to do anything about it. On defense, they are below average as well, allowing 5.3 yppl against 5. 2 yppl, including allowing 4.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr. So, it will be interesting as we continue to watch them play out the season. Last week NO out gained them 344 to 309 and 5.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl, including allowing NO to rush for 155 yards and 5.3 ypr. They get a good match up this week because their strong rushing offense will face a weak Indy rush defense, allowing 4.7 ypr against 3.5 ypr. And the weakness of the Carolina defense, their rush defense, will face a below average Indy rushing offense, gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr. It would appear the match up favors Carolina and they qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29 but none of the better subsets and Indy qualifies in a negative situation, which is a 164-95-10 play against them based on their terrible defense last week but, again, they don't qualify in the better subsets. Final numbers actually favor Indy but the technicals and fundamentals favor Carolina and I will side with them. INDIANAPOLIS 20 CAROLINA 17

GREEN BAY -1.5 Kansas City 47.5

KC got away with a gift last week, based on their stats from their game. KC was out gained 469 yards to only 261 and 6.7 yppl to just 4.9 yppl. But, again, special teams helped them out. They ran the ball for 5.5 ypr and 133 yards but they allowed Denver to run for 176 yards and 5.7 ypr. Denver also passed the ball for another 293 yards and 7.5 yps. KC only passed for 128 yards and 4.4 yps. That could spell trouble against a Packer team who looked pretty good again last week. The Packers won the game 35-13 but the yards and yppl were about even, 336-343 and 5.5 to 5.4 yppl for the Packers. GB rushed the ball for 159 yards at 4.5 ypr but did allow Seattle to rush for 128 yards and 5.6 ypr. They defended the pass well, allowing just 5.2 yps but Seattle has been below average throwing the ball. GB seems to not only have found the secret to their success but are now experiencing the success, which is run the ball, control the clock and let Favre work his magic under control. They'll do the same thing against KC, because GB can run the ball, averaging 4.9 ypr against 4.2 ypr and should find success against a KC defense, which is allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.6 ypr. On the other side, KC is running the ball well, averaging 4.7 ypr against 4.1 ypr and should find success against a GB run defense allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr. But GB's success last week sets them up in a terrific home momentum situation, which is 63-20-6 and in a great fundamental rushing situation, which is 70-29-3. My numbers favor KC slightly, but again, the situations are more important than the numbers. GB is playing very well right now, has their offensive skill people all back and have put in new sets on offense, which have made their offense much better. They get a big win at home. This game also sets up in an under situation and my final numbers support that but with two explosive offenses and two below average defenses, I will stay away from the under. GREEN BAY 27 KANSAS CITY 20

TENNESSEE -10 Houston 40

Houston comes off a bye after their last second win over Jacksonville two weeks ago. Tennessee comes off a tough loss at NE, where they played the Patriots even, but fell short in the end. This is a good match up for Tennessee, who throws the ball well, averaging 7.1 yps against 6.0 yps and will face a Houston defense that has struggled defending the pass, allowing 7.1 yps against 6.2 yps. The Tennessee defense hasn't been great, allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl but the Houston offense is below average again this year, gaining just 4.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl. Tennessee's poor defensive effort last week sets them up in a negative play against situation, which is 164-95-10 and they qualify in the better subset of that situation, which is 120-57-10. Tennessee is not a good team to be laying points, with their profile. They run for only 2.6 ypr and allow 3.7 ypr. That doesn't bode well, in this situation, when laying points against a Houston offense that is gaining 105 yards on the ground and 3.5 ypr. Because of that, Tennessee also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is a 88-28-5 play against them. It will be very hard, with those type of numbers to win a game laying these kinds of points. My numbers also support a higher scoring game and with a fairly low total, this game could go over. TENNESSEE 24 HOUSTON 19

Miami -3 JACKSONVILLE 38

Bryon Leftwich looked very good last week in leading Jacksonville to their 27-21 win over SD, averaging 10.1 yps and throwing for 313 yards. Granted it was against SD but he looked like the kid we got use to seeing at Marshall. The Jacksonville defense allowed SD to gain 346 yards and 6.0 yppl, which wasn't too good but the offense didn't have too many problems moving the ball. I chronicled the Miami game in the Giants write up this week in saying they didn't look quite as good as the final score might have indicated. The Miami offense is just average so far this season, averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl and their running game has been below average, with just 4.1 ypr against 4.2 ypr. It's their passing game, which has been so good, gaining 6.3 yps against 5.9 yps. They'll face a weak Jacksonville pass defense, which is allowing 6.6 yps against 6.0 yps. Miami qualifies in a tough negative scheduling situation, which is 155-85-8 and plays against them. The value in this game lies with Miami but I will lean towards a Jacksonville team that looked good on offense against a Miami team that had sort of a false win last week. This game also qualifies in an under situation if the total is 38 or higher. My final numbers suggest about 34 to 39 points being scored so no opinion there. JACKSONVILLE 20 MIAMI 17
 
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NEW ORLEANS -6 Chicago 41.5

Saints played a good game last week, in losing to Carolina, 13-19. They gave up a kick return for a touchdown, which really hurt them. But, they out gained Carolina 344-309 and 5.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl. They also rushed for 155 yards at 5.3 ypr. The offense, as a whole, is still below average, gaining just 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl but they have rushed the ball well, gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr. This week they face a Bears defense that is giving up rushing yards by the boatload, allowing 5.1 ypr against 4.6 ypr. But the Bears might also have some success running the ball. They have run the ball very well over the last two weeks and are now averaging 5.2 ypr against 4.2 ypr. That bodes well against a NO defense that is allowing 3.9 ypr but against only 3.7 ypr. While the NO pass defense has been below average, allowing 6.6 yps against 6.3 yps, it remains to be seen if the Bears can take advantage of that or not, gaining just 3.5 yps against 5.6 yps. Last week, a very bad Carolina passing team managed to throw for 5.4 yps. My numbers are pretty close to the line and teams favored, with a winning percentage of .200 or worse are just 48-77-1 since 1983. But NO doesn't fit the best part of that situation, making it just 33-31-0 without the subset. My numbers make this game pretty close to the line. I do have two under situations on this game but my final points predictions are around 45-48 points, making the total too tough to take under. I lean with Chicago in a game between two teams just not playing that well. NEW ORLEANS 24 CHICAGO 21

DALLAS -1 Philadelphia 37.5

Very interesting game between a 'new' Cowboy team and the Eagles, who may be starting to come around. I can't give any credence to previous series history, which has seen Philly win six straight in dominating fashion. This is a new Cowboy's team, with Parcells at the helm. Much has been made about the Cowboys playing much better on offense this year, averaging 383 yards per game. And, that is good, but they have done it against teams allowing 357 yards per game and they are averaging 5.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl. So, they are above average but just barely. They are throwing the ball well, averaging 7.2 yps against 6.8 yps and their speed at the receiver position is very good. It will be interesting to see how that plays out against a blitzing Philly secondary, who, was getting lit up just a few weeks ago, but are now above average defending the pass, allowing just 5.8 yps against 6.1 yps. The other key area in this game is the Philly rush offense (which includes McNabb as well) averaging 5.3 ypr against 3.8 ypr against a Cowboy rush defense, which is allowing only 2.7 ypr against 3.6 ypr. As a one point favorite, Dallas does not qualify in any situations, but if they become a dog of +1 or more again, they would then qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 152-105-10 and a fundamental rushing situation, which is 46-12-3. Philly would also qualify in a negative road scheduling situation, which is 97-51-3. I will make a play on Dallas if they become a dog again, other wise it's just a lean. DALLAS 20 PHILADELPHIA 13

Buffalo -2.5 NY JETS 37.5

I talked about the Carolina team, which seems to be winning despite not winning the yardage battle. The Jets actually sport one of the league's best offenses, from a yards perspective, thanks to their passing game, but they have had trouble converting those yards into points. They are averaging 5.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl (6.6 yps against 5.9 yps but only 2.8 ypr against 3.4 ypr) but they are only averaging 11 points per game against teams allowing 19 points per game. The defense hasn't been as good, allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl and they are having trouble stopping the run, allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The rush defense might get a break on Sunday because Buffalo has been horrible rushing the ball, averaging just 2.4 ypr against 3.4 ypr. The Buffalo defense has been better than average, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl and their pass defense has been stellar, allowing just 4.6 yps against 5.5 yps. So, both teams strengths and/or weaknesses go against the other teams strengths and/or weaknesses. Winless teams from week six on, who are a dog or pick 'em are 74-42-5 and the Jets qualify in a subset of that, which is 58-22-4. And winless teams coming off their bye week, as a dog or pick 'em are 17-2 from game number four on. The numbers here favor Buffalo or the Jets, depending on which numbers I use. The situations favor the Jets and it's just a matter of time before they finally convert those yards into points. I also like the under in this game. NY JETS 17 BUFFALO 16

DENVER -7 Pittsburgh 45

Here is another team, where the stats and the record are not in agreement. Pittsburgh is moving the ball, averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl and 338 yards against teams allowing only 306 yards per game. Their defense is allowing just 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl and only 245 yards per game against 303 yards per game. But they are allowing 26 points per game against teams averaging only 21 points per game. So, what is happening? Turnovers are killing this team. The fact Pittsburgh is only allowing 245 yards might not be that impressive. When you turn the ball over and it is returned for a touchdown, your offense gets the ball back and the other teams offense doesn't have a chance to gain any yards. But, the fact their defense is allowing just 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl shows their defense is playing well when they actually have a chance to defend the other team. Understand this. Pittsburgh has allowed 27 points directly related to turnovers and kick returns (7 points on kr). They allowed an additional 35 points on turnovers where the other team has only had to go less than 25 yards to score. That breakdown includes six drives (3 less than 10 yards) amassing a grand total of 71 yards (an average of 12 yards per drive) resulting in 35 points. Take away the short drives and the points scored on kick returns (7) and interception returns (20) and this team is allowing 12 points less per game, or only 14 points per game. That's huge. Will it continue? Who knows but I doubt it. Teams make corrections. Those figures alone make this line outrageous. Denver is playing very well and their offense is averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.5 yppl and has been efficient with both, the run and the pass. The Denver defense is playing well too, but mostly in their pass defense, allowing just 4.6 yps against 5.5 yps. Their rush defense has been bad, allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.2 ypr. I'm not sure if Pittsburgh can take advantage of that, seeing they are only averaging 3.3 ypr against 4.3 ypr. The Pittsburgh pass offense has been terrific, gaining 6.3 yps against 5.5 yps but they'll go right into the teeth of the Denver defense with that. Pittsburgh's loss last week as a favorite sets them up in a very solid 69-38-1 bounce back situation. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 747-579-30 since 1983. Pittsburgh also qualifies in a contrarian situation, which is 120-67-6 since 1986. The numbers favor Denver here but that is because of all the turnovers. Let's face it. If Pittsburgh continues to turn the ball over, they won't win again. The turnover table system tells us that teams don't continue to do this game after game. Pittsburgh will make the necessary adjustments here and may win this game outright. PITTSBURGH 24 DENVER 23
 
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Baltimore -6 ARIZONA 37

Hard to support Arizona here but that's what I'm about to do. The Arizona rush defense has been good this year. They are allowing just 3.2 ypr against 4.2 ypr. Maybe that's because teams are passing at will on them, averaging 7.3 yps against 5.9 yps. The strength of Baltimore is their rushing game, averaging 5.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr and they'll get their share of rushing yards in this game. But Baltimore has had trouble passing the ball, averaging just 3.5 yps against 5.8 yps. Maybe the bye week and a few games under his belt will help Kyle Boller. Only time will tell. For Arizona on offense, they aren't doing much, averaging just 4.8 yppl against 5.1 yppl and their rush offense has been terrible, gaining just 3.1 ypr against 4.2 ypr. Baltimore defends both, the run and pass well, especially against the pass, where they are allowing only 5.0 yps against 5.9 yps. Baltimore also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29 but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. Arizona is a turnover table play and Baltimore also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 97-51-3 play against situation. Final numbers support Baltimore in this game but I'll lean with the situations, which side with Arizona. Weak lean. BALTIMORE 20 ARIZONA 17

SEATTLE -3.5 San Francisco 45.5

This should be an entertaining game but I have a hard time siding strongly with either team. Both teams are playing good defense, with SF allowing just 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl and Seattle allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.1 yppl. On offense, SF has been below average, averaging just 5.1 yppl against 5.4 yppl and Seattle has been average, gaining 5.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl. The strength of the Seattle offense is their rushing game, which is averaging 4.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr but SF has defended the rush well this year, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Seattle has struggled throwing the ball, averaging just 5.7 yps against 6.2 yps but they get Chris Terry back this week. Holmgren said they had scaled down the passing game without Terry for fear Hasslebeck would get hit from his blind side. But, he said with Terry back, the long passes will resurface immediately. It will be interesting to see how that effects their passing numbers but look for long passes again. Numbers favor Seattle slightly here. With their poor performance last week on defense, Seattle qualifies in a negative situation that is a 164-95-10 play against them but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. If this line were to move to -3 or less, Seattle would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 128-50-7. I'm going to side with the better defense, as a lean only. SEATTLE 21 SAN FRANCISCO 20

ST LOUIS -11 Atlanta 45.5

Atlanta is really banged up and after playing a very solid first half last week, Minnesota took it to them in the second half. Part of that was them turning the ball over three times to only once for Minnesota. Atlanta gained 104 yards rushing at 6.1 ypr last week and passed for another 336 yards at 7.8 yps. Overall, they gained 440 yards at a whopping 7.3 yppl as Peerless Price finally got involved in the offense. Atlanta also gave up 399 yards at 6.2 yppl, including 233 yards passing at 9.0 yps. The Atlanta defense is not healthy and not playing well, allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.4 yppl, including 7.5 yps against 6.6 yps. The offense has held their own, gaining 4.9 yppl against 4.9 yppl, making them average and they have been average with both, the run and the pass. I don't know if the Rams can take advantage of the poor Atlanta defense or not. The Rams have averaged just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl, including just 5.6 yps against 6.0 yps. And on defense, the Rams have been awful, allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.8 yps for a total of 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl. Atlanta qualifies in a general contrarian situation, which is 287-207-10. The fact the Rams only average a paltry 3.2 ypr and are allowing 4.8 ypr doesn't bode well for them here. In fact teams laying points in this situation (there's more to it) are just 28-88-5. That's not good, especially when laying as many points as they are. My numbers support the over in this game and I like the match up as well. Atlanta has scored at least 26 points against their opponents who have allowed 17 or more points per game (Rams are allowing 21). The Rams have allowed each of their opponents to score at least their season averages. Arizona is only averaging 13 points per game and scored 13 points. Atlanta averages 19 points per game, which means they will get at least 19 points, based on that assumption. The Rams have also scored at least 23 points in each of their last three games. Two bad defenses, playing in a controlled environment (dome) should lead to plenty of points here. ST LOUIS 31 ATLANTA 30

BEST BETS

YTD 15-10-1 +8.90%

3% PITTSBURGH +7

2% WASHINGTON +3.5
2% GREEN BAY -1.5
2% HOUSTON +10
2% ATLANTA +11

2% ATLANTA/ST LOUIS OVER 45.5 (No higher than 47)

POSSIBLE BEST BET

2% DALLAS +1 or more
 
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thank you, sixth

thank you, sixth

if my parents taught me one thing, it was manners, and to not show gratitude for your3-4 hours of writing (and incredible research) each week would be criminal

gl, gregg


ps i had a funny feeling about Pitt being such a dog last 2 weeks that they might surprise denevr too ;)
 
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