To summarize the data on playoff totals thru the 2nd round.
wager under 5 goals every game
1st round
47 games
11 over [losses]
9 tied [=5 goals]
2nd round
21 games
4 over [losses]
4 tied [=5 goals]
combined results thur 2nd round
68 games
15 losses
13 ties
40 wins
Conclusion
wager under 5 goals every game, and lose [15/68] 22% of the time
wager under 4.5 goals every game and lose [28/68] 41% of the time
wager under 5 goals every game
1st round
47 games
11 over [losses]
9 tied [=5 goals]
2nd round
21 games
4 over [losses]
4 tied [=5 goals]
combined results thur 2nd round
68 games
15 losses
13 ties
40 wins
Conclusion
wager under 5 goals every game, and lose [15/68] 22% of the time
wager under 4.5 goals every game and lose [28/68] 41% of the time