The end of 'giggle golf' and hopefully the beginning of the regular, and more predictable, section of the season. Not that looking at last year's leaderboard would suggest that! Not only did Kirk Triplett win the event after winless starts on the PGA Tour, but the top-10 contained just one Major winner: Fred Couples. That is noteworthy as since 1989, with the exception of 1991, the winner at Riviera was also a Major winner. I think we can dismiss last year's result as the exception; it is the pedigree of the course that produces the pedigree of the winner.
This is a true Championship course; no other on the PGA Tour has the distinction of hosting the US PGA, the US Open and the US Senior Open. Only Pebble Beach has held two of these three Majors. Short by Tour standards at under 7000 yards and a par-71, length is still important as the Kikuyu fairways which are so unusual in the United States do not allow much roll. The greens are of average size for the Tour and of the Bentgrass version.
The three picks for this event are Davis Love, Scott Verplank and Nick Price. Love has a strange routine with this event: he has played it every 2nd year since 1993, so it is not clear whether he likes this course or not. On the basis that he finished 2nd on his last visit in 1999 and has two other top-3 finishes here in the 1990s, he should have been a more frequent visitor. That said, given his current form he should be able to compete on any course. With Tiger still inflating the odds for the rest of the field, at least a top-5 finish should be easily within reach.
Someone in similar form is Scott Verplank. While his record at Riviera is anything but impressive, he has ended his last two tournaments in the top-5 and like any Major champion, he ranks high in the greens in regulation stats. So high, that he is currently ranked #1 this year and #4 in driving accuracy. His performances have improved enormously since he began wearing his diabetes belt last year and for the meantime, he remains a good value player.
Finally, Nick Price gets the nod as the 3rd pick and as the 2nd Major winner among them. He has played this event in the last two years, finishing 5th in 1999 and was only 3 shots out of the lead going into the final round last year before a 75 plummeted him down the leaderboard. He has played once on the PGA Tour, finishing 13th in the Phoenix Open and was 4th the following week at the Dimension Data pro-am. While he may not win very often these days, he has not lost the ability to complete at the highest level, especially on the more classic golf courses. Often undervalued because of his age, he should have a good shot at a place finish.
Outright plays:
Davis Love to win 12/1 e.w @
Surrey
Scott Verplank to win 40/1 e.w @
Surrey and
Victor Chandler
Nick Price to win 33/1 e.w @
Surrey
Simonpjc, couldn't agree more. The 'over 63.5' looks a great play
