No Teasers!!

[PerpetualCzech]

I just read a bunch of plays in the CFL week 2 thread and very very strongly want to urge you all who are playing CFL teasers to avoid them. CFL teasers are a lot like CFB teasers - with the higher scoring and bigger variance in the winning margins compared to the NFL (which is originally the league teasers were designed for) the points you are getting on your side are not worth the price you are paying in the money line to get them. Teasers are a bad bet in general in the NFL and more so in CFL and CFB for these reasons.

Really, you are much better off in the long run just betting the games straight up. Don't let the appeal of getting a "better line" to win each individual selection in the teaser fool you into making a bad bet.

 

[Frogy]

Respect your opinion but dont agree.

I wont force a play to tease but if they are two plays i like i will tease.


GLTU

 

[PerpetualCzech]

The difference really is a big one, I can't emphasize this enough. Try this: keep track of everytime you bet a CFL or CFB teaser and compare how much you lose with how much you would win or lose if you you had invested the same amount of money into 2 normal bets against the spread.

Even after only a few bets, maybe 10 or 20, you should start to see a big difference.

 

[1837]

Perpetual, why i disagree with you about teaser is because my last year record (thanks to Korn who checked it for me!) was Teasers: 14-6 +7.62 units
Straight: 27-14 +10.55 units
Parlay: 8-11 +13.51 units...

Teaser are much in use in the CFL than in the NFL of the NCAA. It is in fact the only football league i use it commonly and so far it has been profitable as you can see so will continue to play it in the CFL but only here!

 

[Korn]

1837... if you look at those #'s I gave you.. it shows that you would have made more if you played them straight or parlayed them instead of teasing them....

but I still find it hard to play some plays straight but find them easier to play in a teaser.... But in the end if it wins who cares which way you played them....


Just curious PerpetualCzech.... have you gone thru the #'s from last season to see how many games were affected or not affected by teasing them??? if so what results have you come up with.... If not, that is something I will get to one of these days.

Thanks

GL

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Korn,

No I haven't, but only because I've done the numbers for the NFL and just inferred that if teasers are no good for that league then for a higher scoring league with bigger variance in scoring margins they must be even worse.

Assuming a -110 line, to make a profit from straight bets you need to hit your selections at a rate of at least 52.38%. Same thing with your teasers - to make a profit you need to to hit them at a rate of 52.38%. What that means is that you need to hit every individual selection in the teaser at a rate of 72.37% to make a profit. (Because you need to hit them both to win your bet and 0.7237 * 0.7237 = 0.5238)

That means you need at least 72.37-52.38=19.99% of all games to fall in the window between the Vegas line and the final margin of the game in order for teasers to be profitable. If you do the research you'll find that for the CFL this figure falls far short.

 

[IE]

P/C, ive done every imaginable(sp) scenario......

....in the case of canadian football and except for semi-finals and grey-cup...losing prop.

parlay props very profitable if looking in the right direction.

 

[Valuist]

If you don't like a game well enough to play it straight, you shouldn't be betting it. I have to take Czech's side on this.