NOLAN DALLA>>>>>KC/OAK question

[shats]

Nolan:
In reading the report for week one you reccomended a hedge play with KC +3 and UNDER 44. I also read that you said the under loses some value at 43.5 Question, the number I can get now for the under is 43. If it stays at 43 or moves to 43.5 do you still reccomend going under. Or should I only do it if i can get 44. Also if I do not play the under would you still reccomend playing KC plus the three or only play KC if I also play the under? Thanks for your help and lets hope for s strong week 1 !!!!!!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Shats:

Fair question.

I get asked this kind of question quite a bit...."should I play a game if the line move a half-point or a point against me?"

Frankly, I don't like to give a definitive answer to this question since every bettor has a different threshold of tolerance. Some are more risk tolerant than others -- betting EVERY TIME they see s small edge. Others prefer to have a more definitive advantage and will pass on game where they lose value.

In my report, I prefer to give my analysis on the games which I hope will be used by by others when doing their own handicapping. I know some bettors coat-tail my picks -- which is fine with me -- but I prefer not to get into splitting hairs and actually advising plays at the margins.

If you put a gun to my head for an answer, I advise to pass if the total drops to ~43. I figure this is early in the season and there will be plenty of plays to come with more value. Nevertheless, I still like Kansas City +3, regardless of the circumstances of the other bet. The hedge bet is a strong wager, what I call "a correlated bet" but it is not quite as strong based on the total moving down by a point. 44.5 is much better than 43 when it comes to teams where both may do lots of passing.

I hope this addresses the question.

-- Nolan Dalla