I know Jack is on the road and may not be able to update the page in time, so I'm posting it here on the forum. Also, note four NBA plays for Monday. I'll be back on Thursday with regular NBA plays and daily reports. Best wishes to everyone on the Super Bowl.
-- Nolan Dalla
___________________
SPORTS GAMBLING REPORT
Sunday, February 3, 2002
(All Rights Reserved by Nolan Dalla and MadJackSports)
_____________________________________________
NFL REGULAR SEASON RECORD
W -- L RESULTS????... 81 -- 96 -- 7
WIN PERCENTAGE???. .458
SIDES?????????. 29 -- 38 -- 6
TOTALS????????.. 32 -- 29 -- 2
TEASERS???????.. 20 -- 28 -- 1
BEST BETS??????? 7 -- 10 -- 1
**PROPOSITION BETS?? 16 -- 13 (+$645 at $100 per play)
**WHEEL BETS????? 25 -- 20 -- 0
**separate category -- not counted in cumulative W-L record
_____________________________________________
SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:
POINTSPREAD:
NEW ENGLAND
ST. LOUIS -14
COMMENTS: This line which is St. Louis by two touchdowns looks just about right, considering the relative strengths in personnel and the public perceptions of both teams. This line opened at Rams -15 (a terrible line, in my view -- which will cost some books serious money if the final margin ends up right on 14) and was quickly bet down to -14 by smart bettors who may now get a middling opportunity. Unfortunately, I missed the opening number and thus must handicap the game based on the current spread of -14. That said, here's my analysis. I do believe there is a greater possibility that the Rams will blow out the Patriots, than New England covering. To explain further, I look at this game in terms of percentiles. If this game were to be played 100 times (theoretically), I estimate the Rams would cover -14 about 55 times, the Patriots would cover the same number about 40 times, and the final score would land right on 14 approximately 5 times. That gives us a slight advantage playing the Rams minus the points in this situation -- assuming you accept the percentiles. Obviously, if the line were -14.5 that would change my recommendation from "play" to "pass." The hook on the 14 either way would be a significant line move. My reasons for backing the Rams -14 are as follows:
(1) St. Louis has been here in this situation before. Teams with a Super Bowl in their recent past usually fare better than youthful, overachieving teams such as New England. The Rams are expected to be here in this game and are expected to win. Meanwhile, this New England team is reminiscent of the 1985 and 1995 teams which pulled off playoff upsets, but were vastly outclassed by superior NFC teams. Same thing should happen here.
(2) This game is being played on turf, in a dome, in a stadium the Rams are very familiar with. That's three pluses in the Rams' favor. If this game were played outdoors, I might lean towards the Patriots plus the points. But the Rams are strictly in their element on the carpet. This fact alone is probably worth a touchdown.
(3) New England's quarterbacking issues are a serious concern for Patriots' backers: First, I'm not convinced that Tom Brady is 100 percent healthy. If he goes down, or is ineffective, Drew Bledsoe is not going to be able to keep up with the Rams on the scoreboard. My view is that Bledsoe is a quarterback who has not progressed physically or intellectually in five seasons. Brady may eventually be a terrific NFL quarterback, but asking him to put up stats anywhere close to Warner's expected 300-400+ passing yards is way too much to ask. Warner threw for 401 in the first meeting at Foxboro.
(4) Keep in mind the Patriots offense has essentially been shut down the past two weeks. New England never should have gotten out of Foxboro with a win (idiotic officiating and league rules gift wrapped the victory for the non-deserving Patriots). They scored 3 points until the closing minutes of the Oakland game. Then, the Patriots managed only 10 points on offense at Pittsburgh last week (two TDs came off kick returns). Unless the Rams completely self-destruct (a longshot), the Patriots are going to need to score at least 24 points to cover this spread, in my opinion. I have a strong suspicion they may not reach half that.
(5) Teams that are heavy favorites usually win convincingly in the Super Bowl (exception: 1968 Colts). Unlike regular season games, where the team with the lead often gets conservative in the second half -- the heavily favored Super Bowl teams like to roll up the score and get everyone involved in the game plan. With so many weapons on offense, the Rams should score 5+ touchdowns. If they get ahead early and/or the Patriots commit turnovers, this could turn into a rout.
(6) I'm still not a believer in the Patriots' defense. Stopping the underachieving Raiders in a snowstorm, or the Steelers in a fluke game is one thing, but the Patriots tend to give up lots of yards and points to decent offenses. To their credit, Patriots have one of the NFL's best red-zone defenses, but with Rams big play potential, that may not be a factor in this game.
CONCLUSION: Just about everything indicates a Rams win by 17 points or more. Lay the -14.
GAME TOTAL:
O/U 53.5
COMMENTS: Normally, I'd play the OVER in this situation. Any Rams' game played in a dome with a total less than 55 usually deserves strong consideration as a play. Trouble is, I'm not convinced the Patriots are going to put up many points against a pretty decent Rams' defense. I'm giving the Patriots credit for 14-17 points, which means St. Louis needs 38+ to break the total. That's too close to call. I'll strongly consider a halftime wager (total), but I have no opinion about the game total at this point. NO PLAY.
FIRST HALF LINE/TOTAL:
PATRIOTS 26.5
RAMS 8
COMMENTS: Look for the Patriots to try and establish an early ground attack which will drain some precious clock time in the first half. Rams have also been shaky at times in the first half this season. Combine expected early jitters from Tom Brady, a conservative game plan by the Patriots (using the run and high-percentage passes), and the high completion-percentage of Kurt Warner (which means the clock keeps running with each pass), and believe there is value with the UNDER. This total should probably be closer to 24. PLAY FIRST HALF UNDER 26.5
MONEYLINE:
PATRIOTS +500
RAMS -700
COMMENTS: I see no value on either side here. Any prop with a 200 dollar spread is usually a sucker bet.
FIRST QUARTER LINE/TOTAL
PATRIOTS 10.5u20
RAMS 3-35
COMMENTS: Interesting that the first quarter total is 10.5 and the first half total is 26.5 Don't be fooled by this apparent contradiction. This game could be scoreless until mid-way into the quarter -- assuming both offenses punt on their initial series. Rams would be a solid choice at -3, but laying -135 is way too high a price. NO PLAY.
SECOND QUARTER LINE/TOTAL
PATRIOTS 15
RAMS 4-15
COMMENTS: I believe the second quarter will belong to the Rams. Warner and the offense will be in synch after at least two series, and should score 10-14 points in this quarter. I expect that Patriots will also move away from the run as the quarter passes, which increases the possibility for turnovers. Rams have outscored opponents 120-53 in the second quarter. I'll lay -115 and go with the Rams -4.
THIRD QUARTER LINE/TOTAL
PATRIOTS 10.5
RAMS 3?ev 3-20 pk-220
COMMENTS: I'll play the OVER here, expecting both teams to combine for at least 14 points (well OVER the 10.5 total). Third quarters are usually the period where defenses start taking chances -- which could mean big plays and/or turnovers. Rams have not been a good 3rd quarter team this season (outscoring opponents just 70-56), but I believe the Super Bowl atmosphere will motivate this team to come out of the locker room and put up some big numbers. PLAY OVER 10.5
FOURTH QUARTER LINE/TOTAL
PATRIOTS 14
RAMS 3 pk-200
COMMENTS: No opinion here. If Rams are up by 21+ points and Bledsoe comes in, this could be a decent spot to play the underdog Patriots to put up a score or two. Far too risky to lay money without seeing part of the game, beforehand, however.
-- Nolan Dalla
___________________
SPORTS GAMBLING REPORT
Sunday, February 3, 2002
(All Rights Reserved by Nolan Dalla and MadJackSports)
_____________________________________________
NFL REGULAR SEASON RECORD
W -- L RESULTS????... 81 -- 96 -- 7
WIN PERCENTAGE???. .458
SIDES?????????. 29 -- 38 -- 6
TOTALS????????.. 32 -- 29 -- 2
TEASERS???????.. 20 -- 28 -- 1
BEST BETS??????? 7 -- 10 -- 1
**PROPOSITION BETS?? 16 -- 13 (+$645 at $100 per play)
**WHEEL BETS????? 25 -- 20 -- 0
**separate category -- not counted in cumulative W-L record
_____________________________________________
SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:
POINTSPREAD:
NEW ENGLAND
ST. LOUIS -14
COMMENTS: This line which is St. Louis by two touchdowns looks just about right, considering the relative strengths in personnel and the public perceptions of both teams. This line opened at Rams -15 (a terrible line, in my view -- which will cost some books serious money if the final margin ends up right on 14) and was quickly bet down to -14 by smart bettors who may now get a middling opportunity. Unfortunately, I missed the opening number and thus must handicap the game based on the current spread of -14. That said, here's my analysis. I do believe there is a greater possibility that the Rams will blow out the Patriots, than New England covering. To explain further, I look at this game in terms of percentiles. If this game were to be played 100 times (theoretically), I estimate the Rams would cover -14 about 55 times, the Patriots would cover the same number about 40 times, and the final score would land right on 14 approximately 5 times. That gives us a slight advantage playing the Rams minus the points in this situation -- assuming you accept the percentiles. Obviously, if the line were -14.5 that would change my recommendation from "play" to "pass." The hook on the 14 either way would be a significant line move. My reasons for backing the Rams -14 are as follows:
(1) St. Louis has been here in this situation before. Teams with a Super Bowl in their recent past usually fare better than youthful, overachieving teams such as New England. The Rams are expected to be here in this game and are expected to win. Meanwhile, this New England team is reminiscent of the 1985 and 1995 teams which pulled off playoff upsets, but were vastly outclassed by superior NFC teams. Same thing should happen here.
(2) This game is being played on turf, in a dome, in a stadium the Rams are very familiar with. That's three pluses in the Rams' favor. If this game were played outdoors, I might lean towards the Patriots plus the points. But the Rams are strictly in their element on the carpet. This fact alone is probably worth a touchdown.
(3) New England's quarterbacking issues are a serious concern for Patriots' backers: First, I'm not convinced that Tom Brady is 100 percent healthy. If he goes down, or is ineffective, Drew Bledsoe is not going to be able to keep up with the Rams on the scoreboard. My view is that Bledsoe is a quarterback who has not progressed physically or intellectually in five seasons. Brady may eventually be a terrific NFL quarterback, but asking him to put up stats anywhere close to Warner's expected 300-400+ passing yards is way too much to ask. Warner threw for 401 in the first meeting at Foxboro.
(4) Keep in mind the Patriots offense has essentially been shut down the past two weeks. New England never should have gotten out of Foxboro with a win (idiotic officiating and league rules gift wrapped the victory for the non-deserving Patriots). They scored 3 points until the closing minutes of the Oakland game. Then, the Patriots managed only 10 points on offense at Pittsburgh last week (two TDs came off kick returns). Unless the Rams completely self-destruct (a longshot), the Patriots are going to need to score at least 24 points to cover this spread, in my opinion. I have a strong suspicion they may not reach half that.
(5) Teams that are heavy favorites usually win convincingly in the Super Bowl (exception: 1968 Colts). Unlike regular season games, where the team with the lead often gets conservative in the second half -- the heavily favored Super Bowl teams like to roll up the score and get everyone involved in the game plan. With so many weapons on offense, the Rams should score 5+ touchdowns. If they get ahead early and/or the Patriots commit turnovers, this could turn into a rout.
(6) I'm still not a believer in the Patriots' defense. Stopping the underachieving Raiders in a snowstorm, or the Steelers in a fluke game is one thing, but the Patriots tend to give up lots of yards and points to decent offenses. To their credit, Patriots have one of the NFL's best red-zone defenses, but with Rams big play potential, that may not be a factor in this game.
CONCLUSION: Just about everything indicates a Rams win by 17 points or more. Lay the -14.
GAME TOTAL:
O/U 53.5
COMMENTS: Normally, I'd play the OVER in this situation. Any Rams' game played in a dome with a total less than 55 usually deserves strong consideration as a play. Trouble is, I'm not convinced the Patriots are going to put up many points against a pretty decent Rams' defense. I'm giving the Patriots credit for 14-17 points, which means St. Louis needs 38+ to break the total. That's too close to call. I'll strongly consider a halftime wager (total), but I have no opinion about the game total at this point. NO PLAY.
FIRST HALF LINE/TOTAL:
PATRIOTS 26.5
RAMS 8
COMMENTS: Look for the Patriots to try and establish an early ground attack which will drain some precious clock time in the first half. Rams have also been shaky at times in the first half this season. Combine expected early jitters from Tom Brady, a conservative game plan by the Patriots (using the run and high-percentage passes), and the high completion-percentage of Kurt Warner (which means the clock keeps running with each pass), and believe there is value with the UNDER. This total should probably be closer to 24. PLAY FIRST HALF UNDER 26.5
MONEYLINE:
PATRIOTS +500
RAMS -700
COMMENTS: I see no value on either side here. Any prop with a 200 dollar spread is usually a sucker bet.
FIRST QUARTER LINE/TOTAL
PATRIOTS 10.5u20
RAMS 3-35
COMMENTS: Interesting that the first quarter total is 10.5 and the first half total is 26.5 Don't be fooled by this apparent contradiction. This game could be scoreless until mid-way into the quarter -- assuming both offenses punt on their initial series. Rams would be a solid choice at -3, but laying -135 is way too high a price. NO PLAY.
SECOND QUARTER LINE/TOTAL
PATRIOTS 15
RAMS 4-15
COMMENTS: I believe the second quarter will belong to the Rams. Warner and the offense will be in synch after at least two series, and should score 10-14 points in this quarter. I expect that Patriots will also move away from the run as the quarter passes, which increases the possibility for turnovers. Rams have outscored opponents 120-53 in the second quarter. I'll lay -115 and go with the Rams -4.
THIRD QUARTER LINE/TOTAL
PATRIOTS 10.5
RAMS 3?ev 3-20 pk-220
COMMENTS: I'll play the OVER here, expecting both teams to combine for at least 14 points (well OVER the 10.5 total). Third quarters are usually the period where defenses start taking chances -- which could mean big plays and/or turnovers. Rams have not been a good 3rd quarter team this season (outscoring opponents just 70-56), but I believe the Super Bowl atmosphere will motivate this team to come out of the locker room and put up some big numbers. PLAY OVER 10.5
FOURTH QUARTER LINE/TOTAL
PATRIOTS 14
RAMS 3 pk-200
COMMENTS: No opinion here. If Rams are up by 21+ points and Bledsoe comes in, this could be a decent spot to play the underdog Patriots to put up a score or two. Far too risky to lay money without seeing part of the game, beforehand, however.
