This is taken from the FAQ on his page... don't know if he has changed anything recently.
http://www.madjacksports.com/nolan/questionsfeb22.shtml
Nolan:
My question pertains to buying points. I apologize for this being a bit out of season (I really don't see much value into buying points for basketball, but please correct me if you see something I don't). This really pertains to football and working with "key numbers" (3, 4, 7, 10). Is the extra juice worth it?? I usually, buy to "not lose" around a key number instead of "buying to win". In other words, if my team is -7 1/2, I will buy down to 7 and take the 120/100 odds. On the other hand, I will rarely take a team that is -3, and buy down to -2 1/2. The same goes for the dogs...buy up a half to 3, but not taking a 3 up to 3 1/2. I hope I am explaining this well enough to make sense?!? Does this strategy make for "smart play" or does this give the house more of an advantage (in juice) that we may not necessarily want to give?? As always, your thoughts are appreciated. -- Nino
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NOLAN'S REPLY: Although this question is indeed "out of season," it is never too early to start thinking about your handicapping and learning new ways to approach the upcoming NFL season. In fact, there is no such thing as an "off-season" for a serious handicapper. I sometimes use the down time to catch up and hypothesize on new theories -- going back and tracking old results. So, even though this is not a basketball question and might seem out of place in late February, I will give you my point of view.
The fact of the matter is -- I never buy points. Never. I can't think of a single occasion where you would be justified laying an extra ten percent in vig just for the sake of hitting or crossing a key number (okay -- there is one exception, which I will get to later).
The concept of buying a half-point appears reasonable at first glance. After all, what's ten percent? What's a few extra dollars just in case the actual spread falls on 7 and you have 6.5, or the final score is 21-17 and you only got 3.5 points? My view is that if you are so concerned about the number being a factor, then you shouldn't be betting the game. In other words, since there is no "value" on a team at +3.5, you cannot artificially "create" value by making the line +4. Buying the hook is almost always a dumb investment.
If you are like most sports bettors, you do not keep records of all your wagers with the final results. But just in case you do -- I'll ask you to do something. Go back and look at all the games you bet that were right on or near key numbers. Let's say you would have bought the hook on these key games, getting 7 instead of 6.5, or laying 7 instead of 7.5, and so forth. Now, if you can do this -- go back and add up all of the times you lost a game by a half-point.
Go ahead. Do it.
How many games were there? One, maybe two? I doubt there were more than a couple in a season, unless you are playing the entire board every Sunday. My point is -- it's generally a losing proposition to lay ten percent additional just for the sake of a half point. Your results will bear this out, I believe.
Keep in mind that sportsbooks make this offer because of one reason. They know many betters will be tempted to insure themselves against a half-point loss and will gladly pay an additional ten-percent to fall into what I call a "comfort zone." You are thinking -- "Ahhhh, now the Titans have to score TWICE to cover the number." Now, the line move from 7 to 7.5 looks like a gift. The bottom line is -- most of the time it won't really matter. Or, at least it won't matter enough to offset all the ten-percent additional outlays. This is true whether you buy the half-point UP or DOWN. It doesn't really matter. Again, if you can -- go back and look at your results, or better yet go back over ALL the results in the NFL and see how many games fell within a point of the actual pointspread. Now, of those keep in mind you would only get a half point, and that would usually be done on key numbers -- 3, 4, 7, 10, 14 as you suggest. Weed out all the other games and you are very likely talking about a miniscule number of games where the half-point actually would make a difference (my guess would be in the 5-6 percent range -- but that's just an estimate).
Again, my fundamental point I stress is that if you are that seriously concerned about a line -- it is better to just skip the game. There are plenty of other games with better value. I have passed on many games, sometimes for one reason only -- because I was bothered by a half point (usually when the line was +3.5 and I wanted to take the underdog). It didn't hurt to just let it pass and not play the game. No game is so strong that its value will be increased by ten-percent by simply getting and extra hook.
Now, to the one exception: A rare instance of buying a hook that might be justified would be in the case of absolutely abominable weather conditions (hurricane force winds, a massive snowstorm, etc.). If there is a line set around 3, 4, or 7, you might be justified in buying the hook to increase your value. However, this is the case only because a very low scoring game is expected and points would be at an absolute premium. An example of this was the Week 16 game last year when New England went to Buffalo. The Bills were a slight favorite (I don't recall the line, but let's say it was 3 points). Since there were 50 mph winds and a driving snowstorm, I can see moving that number either direction because you know it's going to be a low-scoring game. By the way, the game went into overtime and was decided by a late field goal. This would be a rare exception, however. Most of the time, it's a waste of money.
In summary: If you are not confident enough in the play based on its own merits given the standard line, it's usually best to pass on the wager.
