Nolan - We lost it on the coin flip

[Red Raider]

I agreed with your prop. bet and took Indy to score first. But we lost it when Miami won the coin toss.



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I hope to break even this week. I need the money.

-UNKNOWN VETEREN GAMBLER
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[raz19]

i took it also ..will have to adjust at halftime ...see nothing but dolphins rest of the way!!!!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

We lost it when I first saw the Colts coming out onto the field. They were walking around like zombies at a funeral. No emotion. No concern. No excitement.

I knew we were dead from the start.

A totally lifeless bunch with no pride in themselves. Reminded me of watching the Cowboys 1996-2000.

I usually try and stay away from gut-emotional responses to sports teams, because just as one team will kill us one week, they may be our savior the next.

But in the case of the Colts, I fail to understand how these pro athletes can just show up and go through the motions in front of 20 million viewers. Isn't there something called PRIDE involved? Christ, at least the Jags last week showed some desire to win. But not this lousy bunch.

I realize Manning did not play well, and will get lots of the blame here. But this was a TEAM effort -- coaches, offense, defense, hell, shoot the waterboy too.

Another lesson learned -- Don;t bet on teams with horrible defenses (Colts, BYU, etc.). You are going to end up tearing your hair out and making up new strings of curse words.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Red Raider]

Very good points ND. I kept thinking that these Goats would show some pride and play a game with emotion and desire.

Manning looks like a scared rookie.

Shame on me for taking until week 13 to finally figure out, that sometimes teams have no pride!

If the turnovers would stop, maybe I'll get my under.

GL to you next time!


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I hope to break even this week. I need the money.

-UNKNOWN VETEREN GAMBLER
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[This message has been edited by Red Raider (edited 12-10-2001).]

 

[Junior44]

In my honest opinion, making a prop wager on which team will score first in a given football game is just that: a coin flip. I just don't see any certifable handicapping edge in making such a wager. I believe the only props that can be handicapped to some degree of predictability are "game" props, such as most rushing yards, Eddie George over/under 89 yards rushing, total pass attempts, etc. I would love to hear dissenting opinion upon the value of "single event" props such as who will score first, longest TD run over/under, will Rich Gannon's first pass be complete/incomplete. These types of props are paramount to a coin flip.

Cornlover, if you are out there, would like to hear your opinion on this.

 

[ESQAJM]

JUNIOR 44: You are absolutely right. Almost every "single event" prop is a coin flip. I do feel that some props could be handicapped. Such as number of field goals, interceptions, running yds, passing yds.

For example: I don't know if they had a prop on interceptions tonite or maybe turnovers, but I would have bet Over knowing Manning was facing one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

COMMENT TO NOLAN: Were you actually able to see the lack of enthusiasm on the Colts before the game started? What signs did they show? I'd like to know if this could be a possible last minute handicapping tool.

 

[Red Raider]

Well in light of the fact that I lost the bet (along with every other fuhking bet tonight) I'd say your right.

BUT, I think there are factors that can be capped in this matter.

1. Miami tends to start slow, finsh bigger..
2. I felt Miami would run a ball control offense, while Indy depends more heavily on the pass which can (but didn't) be more indicative to scoring.
3. In light of Mannings recent problems I felt(again wrongly) that there would be an emphasis on NOT turning the ball over.

I don't play props that often and I can see your point. Just wanted to explain a few of the reasons I chose to take this bet.

GL in the future 44!

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I hope to break even this week. I need the money.

-UNKNOWN VETEREN GAMBLER
-------------------------

 

[wondo]

I dont bet baseball, but if you pay attention to teams that have pitchers on pitch counts, you can make an absolute killing on over/under pitches for a starter. now a good guy is making the props at olympic, so don't know if that will change.... take a good look and you can find a lock, in every sense of the word, for pitch counts. not every game, and sometimes not for weeks at a time, but when you see a coach has a guy on a pitch count, add 16 (avg. #pitches for 1 inn or just a little leeway to get a guy out of a tough inning if pitch limit isnt due to injury) to it and see if it's still under, then rock and roll. you'll never lose.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Two Comments:

POINT 1: "props are a coin flip" -- This may be true, in fact I HOPE it's true. What give me value on the prop is getting back +110 on the prop. Note that every prop I make I am getting back better than EVEN money. If you want to give me +110 on a coin flip, that's a helluva bargain. As far as INDY scoring first prop, it obviously did not work out. But assuming that's a coin flip, why would you not go for the 100/110 payoff ? It's all about value, right?
NOTE: Miami does tend to start off slowly, as another post mentioned. That was also a factor.

POINT 2: About INDY's lack of enthusiasm before the game. I'm not sure it's just a feeling or something tangible. But as the announcers are talking before the game and images are being flashed from both sidelines, you saw the Dolphins jumping up and down in a huddle and appeared ready to go (like it was a college game). You saw Wannstedt barking at the team, and lots of energy. They showed the Indy sideline and we saw a stonefaced Jim Mora, Peyton Manning looking like a dear in the headlights (a look on his face like -- "here we go again"), and none of the players were the least bit encouraging to one another. Admittedly, these were brief images and only conveyed a general impression. I have no idea what was actualy being said on the field or the mood of the team. But, as we saw -- the Colts were flat from the kickoff. There's no handicapping angle here (not like seeing horses in the paddock before the race), just an initial read into the team(s).

One counterpoint is -- some teams can be TOO HIGH emotionally. When you see the underdog bouncing up and down like they are back in college that energy can work against a team (it happens all the time in college).

Also, have you ever noticed that you can see how your bet will do after just 1 or 2 plays? You see one team fired up and slapping each other after a tackle, while the other team just gets up and walks towards the huddle. I really do belive emotions (when it's combined with displine) is perhaps the most powerful component in football.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Junior44]

My reference to a "single event" prop being analogous to a coin flip was more a play on words on the title of this thread than an actual semblance, as we all know a coin flip is a 50-50 proposition.

In actuality, perhaps a "weighted" coin flip would have been more technically accurate, as Miami was the favorite and was reflected as such in the line.

Broken down numerically (prior to last night's game), Miami (at home) has scored 17 times opposed to their opponenents' 13 scores. They had outscored their opponents 92-65. Indianapolis (on the road) has scored 30 times to their opponents' 33 scores, and have been outscored 183-170. As far as starting slowly, in Miami's 12 games, they have scored first in 6 of them. In Indy's 12 games, they have scored first in 5 of them.

But, alas, those are just numbers, and a small sample at that. However, those (combined with Miami being the favorite) is surely the reasoning behind Indy being a +110 "dog". As far as subjective factors such as, which team is more fired up? That is where there is room for debate, and in my opinion it's awfully difficult to find a significant edge to warrent a wager.