Nolan, I hope you have time to respond. Many of us took a beating this week, we're all with you. I've been a huge fan of yours since the old AOL days and I absolutely respect everything you write.
Question about your wheel on Cincy. I'm sitting here racking my brain about the ROI of a teaser wheel. Please tell me what I'm missing. I've used a wheel with parlays but not with teasers because of the payout difference. At 13/10 it makes sense to me, at 10/11 it doesn't.
It seems to me to be a lot to risk on one team used in a teaser because the odds are 10/11, or the same as a regular side.
Let's use $20 as a guideline. If you bet all 28 teams with Cincy as the center you will risk $616. Based on the last 3 weeks, the return would have been: $306, $224 and $56. I'm missing the strategy here. On the best week you are getting a 50% return and on the worst week you are getting a 9% return. And that's assuming you hit your wheel center play. If Cincy gets blown out (Pitt beat them by 15 and 22 last year) your return 0%.
If you 10 team wheel a parlay for $100, you have a maximum loss of $1000 if your center team (here Cincy) misses and a maximum profit of $2600 if all hit. In addition, if you do a parlay wheel, you only need to hit 3 out of 10. A 3-7 record will net you $80.
If you 10 team wheel a teaser the most you can lose is $1,100 if Cincy doesn't cover the 12. However, the most you can win is $1,000 if every one hits. In addition, you need to go 6-4 to be in positive numbers.
I apologize if I'm missing the strategy here. It just seems like a ton to lay for the return. $616 risked to win 9-50% seems a little risky, regardles of how strong you feel about Cincy.
Please tell me what I'm missing.
Question about your wheel on Cincy. I'm sitting here racking my brain about the ROI of a teaser wheel. Please tell me what I'm missing. I've used a wheel with parlays but not with teasers because of the payout difference. At 13/10 it makes sense to me, at 10/11 it doesn't.
It seems to me to be a lot to risk on one team used in a teaser because the odds are 10/11, or the same as a regular side.
Let's use $20 as a guideline. If you bet all 28 teams with Cincy as the center you will risk $616. Based on the last 3 weeks, the return would have been: $306, $224 and $56. I'm missing the strategy here. On the best week you are getting a 50% return and on the worst week you are getting a 9% return. And that's assuming you hit your wheel center play. If Cincy gets blown out (Pitt beat them by 15 and 22 last year) your return 0%.
If you 10 team wheel a parlay for $100, you have a maximum loss of $1000 if your center team (here Cincy) misses and a maximum profit of $2600 if all hit. In addition, if you do a parlay wheel, you only need to hit 3 out of 10. A 3-7 record will net you $80.
If you 10 team wheel a teaser the most you can lose is $1,100 if Cincy doesn't cover the 12. However, the most you can win is $1,000 if every one hits. In addition, you need to go 6-4 to be in positive numbers.
I apologize if I'm missing the strategy here. It just seems like a ton to lay for the return. $616 risked to win 9-50% seems a little risky, regardles of how strong you feel about Cincy.
Please tell me what I'm missing.
