Nolan...

[Korn]

First off, great show this morning... looking forward to future shows... One recommendation that I would have for it would be to start the show by running thru the NFL games for the week and your thoughts and then after that is complete then open up the show to other topics, instead of jumping in and out of different subjects in between the games.

I found it to be very informative and really enjoyed it. Great call on the Bills!

Now I have a question for you about those teasers that you have riding with the Bills. You currently have Arizona +8.5, Pitt +12 and BAL -1.5.
Would it be a good idea to play another teaser or two with the opposite sides of these games and possibly get the middle?
You mentioned how much you love PITT so we'll leave that one out. How about a teaser of CLE +14 and KC +4.... That would give a 12pt middle opportunity on those games and it would be a bit of a safety play as well I guess. Or is it wisest to just stick with the 3 teasers as they are and let them ride.

Thanks for your time..

GL
Korn

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Korn:

First, thanks for the advice on the show. I'll try to structure the format a lettle better next time. Who knows, I might even start to make a few preparations and have some notes in front of me.

Also, thanks for joining the show and sending questions. That really did help me out.

Regarding teasers -- you bring up an interesting idea. Next week, I'm going to do the math on teasers and show exactly which spreads give us positive EV, when teased. There are certain situations that allow you to pick up key numbers and this actually has proven to be profitable over the past few years, when teasing teams in certain situations.

So far as teasing CLEVELAND, I understand your thought-process. It does seem likely the Ravens would win this game by between 2 and 14 points. However, I am confident enough in the Ravens outright win, that I;m going to pass the tmeptation to write a ticket on the Browns getting the 14 and going for the middle. I beleive there is a reasonable chance that the Ravens might cover tha number. I would not be surprised to see Baltimore win this game something like 20-3 or 24-7....something like that. I think the Ravens -1.5 is a stronger play than the Browns +14 -- and a MUCH stronger play than the Browns +13 (in case your line is 7.5). One stat in FAVOR of teasing the Browns is this: Results show that teams who are +8 and teased UP TO +14 cover 73.4 percent of the time. That's one of the highest percentages of any teaser number. So, if you are a trend player and likes algorythmic handicapping, you would be justified in teasing the Browns up. However, as I tend to be a bit more subjective, I'm counting on the Ravens to be up emotionally and possibly shut the Browns down completely, thus covering the 13.5 of 14.

Regarding Arizona -- this is an EXTREMELY POWERFUL number to tease (home dog of +1.5 to +2.5). I think we have uncovered a really powerful trend here, and next week I will write a full report about it. THIS IS THE BEST TEASING SITUATION (proven by statistics) THERE IS. So, no matter what you think about the Cardinals, this has proven to be a very powerful play.

I'm not sure I answered the question as you wanted, but I DO LIKE the tease of Arizona, but am passing on the Browns for the reasons mentioned.

I'd be glad to hear other views, of course.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[AM2kidz]

Hey Guys.... What show are you referring to?? Would love to check it out.. Let me know... Thanks AM2kidz...

 

[yyz]

See Nolan's page for information.